Good morning and welcome
Polls have opened around the US and the battle for control of the Congress has begun. Welcome to our coverage of the 2014 midterm elections.
Republicans need to win six seats to take a majority in the Senate, and will almost certainly keep their hold over the House of Representatives. On the other side of the aisle, Democrats have 45 need to win five Senate seats to at least sway half the chamber, but have been hamstrung by the president’s bad approvals ratings, a timid economy and the curse of midterm turnout. The Democrats seem likely to lose seats in Arkansas, South Dakota and West Virginia.
The tightest Senate races look to be Georgia, Louisiana and Kansas, and the states that will likely hold the keys to control of the Senate include Colorado, Louisiana, Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina and New Hampshire. A slew of candidates for governor are locked in tight contests as well, and some states are deciding ballot questions such as whether to legalize marijuana and tighten gun control.
Here’re the latest numbers from three top election watchers on how likely it is Republicans will win the Senate:
The New York Times: 70% chance
FiveThirtyEight: 76.2% chance
HuffPo Pollster: 79% chance
