With 118 stolen bases this season, Cubs thievery is at its highest point since they stole 121 in 2006. It would take only five more steals to match their highest in more than 30 years, their 123 in 1991.
The White Sox have stolen 79 bases, modest by franchise standards but an increase of 21 and counting over their 2022 total.
Both Chicago teams are part of a baseball-wide trend toward more steals, with Nico Hoerner leading the Cubs with 36, third in the National League and tied for sixth in the majors.
The 30 major-league teams combined to steal 2,926 bases through Sunday, racing past the 2,486 swiped in 2022.
Teams have averaged 0.71 steals per team per game, a huge jump from 0.51 last season and 0.46 in 2021. Only twice in the live-ball era (starting in 1920) have there been gains as large as 0.1 per team per game: from 0.52 in 1973 to 0.64 in 1974 and from 0.65 in 1975 to 0.79 in 1976.
An increase in success rate has followed rules changes restricting throws to first base, the establishment of a pitch clock and slightly increasing the size of the bases.
Runners have been caught stealing 724 times and have succeeded on 80.2% of attempts in 2023. That’s up from 75.4% success last season.
In 1987, when steals were at a live-ball-era high of 0.85 per team per game, the success rate was 70.1%.
There’s a break-even point of around 70% where stolen-base attempts result in more net runs. A runner who gives up too many outs doesn’t help his team.
That break-even point moves, depending on the era. When runs are scarce, each base becomes more valuable and the break-even point is a little lower. In high-scoring times, the break-even point rises.
The Cubs have been slightly above the major-league average this season and well above the break-even point at 80.8%. The Sox have fewer steals but an even higher percentage at 81.4%.
Hoerner’s 36 steals are tied with Sammy Sosa in 1993 for the 10th-most by a Cub in the expansion era, which began in 1961. The era leader was Juan Pierre with 58 in 2006. The only other Cubs with more than 50 in that time were Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg with 54 in 1985, when the Cubs’ 182 steals were their most since 214 in the dead-ball days of 1910, and Eric Young Sr. with 54 in 2000.
Pierre was caught 20 times for a 74.4% success rate. Sandberg was caught only 11 times for 84.4%. Young was even better, with seven caught-stealings for 88.5%
Hoerner has been caught six times for 85.7%. He’s likely to move up a few spots on the Cubs’ expansion-era list. Sandberg in 1983 and Brian McRae in 1996 are just ahead of him at 37. Ivan DeJesus is in the next two rungs up with 41 in 1978 and 44 in 1980, then Bob Dernier (45 in 1984) and Davey Lopes (47 in 1985) just below the three 50-plus seasons.
Most important, Hoerner’s percentage is far above the break-even point, which means his running is helping the team.
