If past behavior can predict future behavior, then brace yourself for significant change to the Miami Heat’s roster this offseason.
Before being swept by the Milwaukee Bucks, the Heat was swept three previous times with Pat Riley running the franchise’s basketball operations.
And all three times, Riley made major personnel changes, sweeping out half of more of his roster.
But here’s the frightening part: Twice before, those changes were followed by miserable seasons — two of the three worst seasons the Heat has endured this century.
But one other time, an Eastern Conference finals appearance followed the quick playoff elimination and a summer of change.
Recapping Riley’s history following his team being swept out of postseason:
— After a three-game first-round sweep by Charlotte in spring 2001 — a series in which the Hornets outscored the Heat by 67 points — Riley purged nine veterans, more than half the team.
He traded Tim Hardaway to Dallas for a second-round pick and dealt Ricky Davis to Cleveland and Don MacLean to Toronto. He bypassed re-signing six veterans, including four who joined other teams: Anthony Mason (Milwaukee), Cedric Ceballos (Denver), Bruce Bowen (San Antonio) and Dan Majerle (Phoenix).
A.C. Green and Duane Causwell retired.
That offseason, the Heat added Malik Allen, LaPhonso Ellis, Chris Gatling (in a trade with Cleveland), Kendall Gill, Tang Hamilton, Sean Marks, Vladimir Stepania, Rod Strickland, Sam Mack and draft pick Ernest Brown.
Amid all the changes, the Heat opened the following season 5-23 and closed at 36-46, the Heat’s third-worst record this century. So while change was necessary after a sweep, the additions couldn’t get the Heat back on track.
— After the Heat was swept out of the playoffs by the Chicago Bulls in spring 2007 — a year after winning an NBA championship — Riley parted ways with seven players on that team.
The Heat traded Antoine Walker, Michael Doleac and Wayne Simien to Minnesota that October.
Miami also opted not to re-sign Eddie Jones after his second stint with the team (he signed with Dallas that summer) and opted not to re-sign Jason Kapono (who signed with Toronto) or James Posey (who went to Boston). And Gary Payton retired.
Following that sweep, the Heat acquired Mark Blount and Ricky Davis in that Minnesota trade and signed Penny Hardaway, Smush Parker and Alexander Johnson, drafted Daequan Cook and signed Joel Anthony after the draft.
None of those moves involving veterans particularly worked out. Hardaway was waived five weeks into the season to make room for Luke Jackson. Parker was put on paid leave after a November confrontation with a parking attendant and waived in March after just nine Heat appearances.
And the Heat started that 2007-08 season at 4-15, traded Shaquille O’Neal to Phoenix (for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks) in February after he quietly requested to be dealt, and finished 15-67.
Dwyane Wade was limited to 51 games that season by injury, Jason Williams 67 and Alonzo Mourning’s season ended after 25 games because of a torn knee tendon. The Heat stumbled through the season with Earl Barron, Stephane Lasme and Kasib Powell playing significant minutes.
That was the worst season of Riley’s sterling 26-year career with the Heat, and he resigned as coach for a second and final time after that season.
— But there was one sweep in the Riley regime that was followed by success: Riley’s first Heat team (1995-1996) was swept in the first round by Michael Jordan’s Bulls but made it to the Eastern finals a year later, losing to Chicago in five games.
After that first Riley season here, Miami moved on from eight free agents: Rex Chapman (Phoenix), Tyrone Corbin (Atlanta), Chris Gatling (Dallas), Stacey King (Milwaukee), Danny Schayes (Orlando), Walt Williams (Toronto), Jeff Malone and Tony Smith (Charlotte).
The Heat re-signed Tim Hardaway, Alonzo Mourning and Voshon Leonard and added P.J. Brown, Ike Austin, Dan Majerle, Tony Farmer, Gary Grant, Ed Pinckney and Mark Strickland and drafted Martin Muursepp.
And Brown, Austin and Majerle were key pieces on that 1996-97 Heat team that went 61-21 and went to the conference finals for the first time in franchise history, falling behind 3-0 to Jordan’s Bulls and losing 4-1.
So Riley’s history after sweeps is to make significant changes.
Once before, that was immediately followed by an Eastern Conference Finals appearance, and that’s the model the Heat ideally can follow this offseason, by landing players as impactful as Brown, Austin and Majerle, if not more so.
But the two other times the Heat was swept, it was followed by far worse misery. So while change is now needed, Miami must tread carefully.
