Nobody can close a deal like Pat Riley, who threw his rings on the table and convinced LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join Dwyane Wade in Miami, then did the same (without any ring throwing or cap space) with Jimmy Butler 15 months ago.
But the sales job that now awaits the Heat's president could be particularly awkward and difficult. It didn't appear this way months ago, when the Heat looked like a charming young team with a second-round ceiling and badly in need of one more star to compete to make an NBA Finals.
The thinking, at that time, was that Miami would easily be able to persuade Bam Adebayo to sit tight this summer and wait on a new contract for a year, because that would allow the Heat to carve out cap space for a max free agent in 2021, so another star can be acquired to join Adebayo and Butler.
Surely Adebayo would understand, even more so because he and 2021 unrestricted free agent jewel Giannis Antetokounmpo share the same agent (Alex Saratsis).
But fast forward six months. If Adebayo wants the max contract he will be eligible to receive this summer _ and not wait a year merely to give the Heat more cap space in 2021 _ Riley will have a tougher time making that case, because the basis of his argument isn't quite as sturdy.
If Riley tells Adebayo he needs to hold off on an extension so Miami can add another star, Adebayo can say: "Why do we need that? You already have two All-Stars with me and Jimmy and potentially another one with Tyler Herro?"
If Riley tells Adebayo he needs to hold off on an extension so Miami is better equipped to have the cap flexibility to become a championship contender, Adebayo can say: "We already are. We made The Finals, Pat, and came within two wins of a title."
If Riley tells Adebayo that not every star on a rookie contract gets an extension when eligible, Adebayo can say: "But Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow did."
Adebayo's willingness to hold off on a new contract is unclear; this isn't a topic he was going to discuss during an NBA Finals when he was dealing with an injury.
Young stars typically seek extensions when they become eligible to give themselves financial security in the event of injury.
Ultimately, the Heat could tell Adebayo no on an extension, even if he wants one, knowing Miami can match any offer to him after next season because he will be a restricted free agent in 2021.
After all, Heat management was famously once willing to make franchise icon Dwyane Wade unhappy about money. So I would be surprised if Miami succumbs to any pressure to give Adebayo the extension this summer.
But an unhappy Adebayo would be less than ideal.
Here's one argument Riley can make: If you wait until the summer of 2021 for a new contract, you could become eligible for a higher starting max salary if you make an All-NBA team or are named Defensive Player of the Year next season, which is certainly a possibility. He would then be eligible to sign a deal starting at 30% of the cap instead of the usual 25 for players with his years of experience.
Riley could also make the case that Games 1 and 6 of the Finals show the Heat needs another piece, and Adebayo can get all of the credit and even more adulation from Heat fans by waiting a year on his new contract.
Regardless of whether he gets an extension this summer, Adebayo will earn $5.1 million next season in the final year of his rookie deal.
Here's why it would be hurtful from a cap flexibility standpoint to give Adebayo the extension he's eligible to receive this offseason as opposed to waiting until 2021:
Players with no more than six years of service time can sign max contracts with a starting salary up to 25% of the cap. That salary is undetermined, because the cap is expected to be impacted by the pandemic. But if the cap is, say $115 million, then Adebayo's first-year max would be $28.7 million. That would be his 2021-22 cap charge if he signed an extension this summer.
But if Adebayo agrees to bypass the extension and sign a max deal next summer _ which can be promised only in a wink/wink type arrangement _ Miami could sign outside free agents first and then sign Adebayo to a new five-year deal in the 2021 offseason, with an Adebayo cap charge of $15.3 million for that 2021-22 season regardless of what Miami pays him.
That $12 million or so difference in Adebayo's 2021-22 cap charge is the difference between having 2021 max space or not.
If the Heat was to give Adebayo a max extension this summer, that would leave Miami with about $93 million in cap commitments for 2021-22, which could be slashed by $4.7 million (to about $89 million) if Miami hypothetically traded Kendrick Nunn for a 2022 draft pick.
(We don't count Andre Iguodala's $15 million team option for 2021-22, which almost assuredly will be declined unless Miami needs it to facilitate a trade. That $93 million also doesn't include impending free agents Goran Dragic or Jae Crowder.)
But if the 2021-22 cap is, say $120 million (less than the pre-COVID projection of $125 million), then even that $27 million to $31 million left _ after a hypothetical Adebayo extension this offseason _ wouldn't be enough to add a max free agent in 2021. (Miami would have 2021 max cap space if it doesn't sign Adebayo until the summer of 2021 or add multiyear contracts this offseason.)
Antetokounmpo or fellow 2021 free agent Victor Oladipo, for example, could have a first-year max ranging from $34.5 million (with a $115 million cap) to $37.5 million (with a $125 million cap).
For players with 10-plus years of service by 2021 _ including potential 2021 free agents Kawhi Leonard and Paul George _ a $115 million cap would mean a first-year max of $40.3 million.
So getting Adebayo to wait a year is significant. Ultimately Riley can do what he wants, without regard to Adebayo's preference. But you can be sure the Heat would strongly prefer that its All-Star center feels good about the decision.
