When Ohio State running back JK Dobbins left Dolphins headquarters after spending several hours with coach Brian Flores and general manager Chris Grier on March 12, he emerged believing the Dolphins really like him.
Meanwhile, a Dolphins official has been telling people how much the team likes Georgia's D'Andre Swift, and Miami planned to bring him to team headquarters this month before the NFL banned such visits, according to a source with direct knowledge.
And it was notable that Dolphins running backs coach Eric Studesville took Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor to dinner in the days before on-campus contact with players was stopped due to coronavirus. Meanwhile, Miami also planned to bring FSU's Cam Akers to team headquarters before coronavirus scuttled that; they've reached out subsequently to him, according to a source.
So a couple of things have become clear in the weeks leading up to the NFL Draft:
1) The Dolphins likely will take a running back in the first two days of the draft, potentially Dobbins or Swift at 26, or perhaps one of those two, LSU's Clyde-Edwards Helaire, Taylor or Akers at 39 for 56. That player will be paired with Jordan Howard as Miami's top two backs, in whatever order.
2) Several backs believe the Dolphins like them.
You know how many running backs the Dolphins have drafted in the first two rounds this century?
Precisely two, and both of those picks were regrettable: Ronnie Brown second overall in 2005, when Aaron Rodgers was on the board; and Daniel Thomas, 62nd overall in 2011, when former NFL rushing champ DeMarco Murray was still available. (The Dolphins also traded two first-rounders in a package for Ricky Williams.)
Meanwhile, past Dolphins regimes used/squandered third-round picks on Travis Minor and Lorenzo Booker, though Kenyan Drake was a very good third-round pick.
Swift and Dobbins would be highly tempting if there at 26 because there's a low bust-quotient with each. Running backs often fall in the draft, but there's no assurance either would be available at 39.
With Dobbins, it was telling that Miami rushed him to team headquarters (he has been training in Aventura) before the league stopped permitting pre-draft visits due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Dobbins averaged 6.2 yards per carry in three seasons at Ohio State, with 4459 yards and 38 rushing touchdowns. And he was especially good last season, averaging 6.7 per carry and ending the year with enormous performances in four big games: 36 carries for 157 yards against Penn State, 31-211 against Michigan, 33-172 against Wisconsin and 18-174 against Clemson.
What's more, he caught 71 passes in three seasons, averaging 9.1 yards per reception, with another five touchdowns.
The Athletic's Dane Brugler has him going 26th to the Dolphins, with Houston's pick, though ESPN's group (Kiper, McShay) don't see him going in the first round.
"Dobbins has the skills to be a three-down back and his vision and instincts are what set him apart from the other backs in this class," Brugler said.
Draft analyst Tony Pauline said Dobbins is "an explosive, multi-cut ball carrier with terrific playing speed and sprinkles in the ability to pick up yardage off initial contact. Dobbins is also a solid pass-catcher out of the backfield and effectively blocks when called upon."
Swift, 5-9, averaged 6.6 per carry with 20 rushing TDs in three years for Georgia and caught 73 passes _ averaging 9.1 yards per reception _ and five touchdowns.
ESPN's Mel Kiper has Miami taking Swift at 18, calling him "the clear top back in this class. He runs through and by defenders, showing off what has scouts so excited about his potential. It starts with speed, as Swift is one of the fastest running backs in the country. But he also has a physical side, and he makes tacklers miss. Big play back. Complete running back, which gives him an edge over the other backs. You can even put him in the slot. Ball security is very good."
Pauline also mocks Swift to Miami at No. 18, praising his "big play ability."
There are at least three other potential option if Miami waits the 39th or 56th picks for a back: Wisconsin'sTaylor (iffy if he's there at 39), LSU's Edwards-Helaire and FSU's Akers.
Taylor ran for 6174 yards, on 6.7 per carry, and 50 touchdowns in three seasons, with 42 catches for a 9.7 average.
But here's the problem: He had 18 fumbles in 926 college carries.
"Add in catches, and Taylor touched the ball 968 times in college; that is a lot of wear-and-tear for a big back," Bleacher Report's Matt Miller said.
"Taylor does have breakaway speed that you don't expect from his 225-pound frame, and he's shown excellent vision at Wisconsin, but a player who has taken that many hits and fumbled that many times will draw fair criticism from NFL scouting departments," Miller added. "You might think rushing for 6,000 yards would guarantee a first-round selection, but Taylor's workload in college could push him outside the top 32."
Edwards-Helaire has emerged as a real possibility in the second round for Miami if the Dolphins don't end up with Swift (or Dobbins) at 26 or 39. I have not confirmed the nature of Edwards-Helaire's interaction with the Dolphins but would be very surprised if there hasn't been.
In three seasons at LSU, Edwards-Helaire ran for 2103 yards, on 5.7 per carry, and 23 touchdowns, plus averaged 8.6 yards on 69 receptions. He averaged 6.6 yards rushing as a senior and ran 16 times for 110 yards (6.9 average) in the national championship game victory against Clemson.
"He's the little man that could," Pauline said of the 5-8, 209-pound back. "I do believe he will be an invaluable rotational ball carrier/spot starter at the next level."
McShay said he was "one of the most underrated players in college football this year. Likely second-round pick. He has excellent lateral quickness to make defenders miss in tight spaces and high-end contact balance to break tackles."
And don't discount Akers, who last season had 1,144 rushing yards on 231 carries (5.0 per carry) and 14 touchdowns. Akers also caught 30 passes for 225 yards (7.5 per) and four scores in 11 starts. It's notable that Miami wanted to use one of its "30" visits on him.
NFL Network draft analyst and former NFL scout Bucky Brooks said: "The media world is sleeping on Cam Akers but I've talked to number of NFL (people) who absolutely love his game and potential. He earned points for making it happen behind a suspect offensive line at FSU. Don't be surprised if he goes higher than most project.
Zierlein says: "He's a three-down option with good feel for finding the crease near the goal line, but ball security needs to improve. He can be Leg 1 or 2 of a tandem rushing attack and is one of the more natural runners in the draft."
Surprisingly, PFF rates Utah running back and Hallandale High alum Zach Moss as the best running back prospect in the draft.
Moss had 1416 yards rushing on 6.0 per carry and 16 touchdowns this past season, plus 13.9 yard average on 28 receptions. The Dolphins have been trying to arrange a video-conference session with him.
Among others worthy of consideration on day three: Vanderbilt's Ke'Shawn Vaughn (1098 yards rushing on 5.2 per carry and nine touchdowns this past season, plus 9.6 average on 28 receptions); UF's Lamical Perrine (676 yards rushing on 5.1 per carry and 6 TDs this past season, plus 6.6 average on 40 receptions); Boston College's AJ Dillon (1685 yards on 5.3 per carry last season and 14 rushing touchdowns) and TCU's Darius Anderson (823 yards on 5.5 per carry last season and 22 for 128 receiving).
MIami has expressed interest in Vaughn and also has shown interest in UCLA's Josh Kelley and Washington's Salvon Ahmed (Miami did a video-conference session with him).
