The Marlins led the National League in losses last season (105), but they also now lead the league in something else:
Public displays of confidence that they're going about this rebuild the right way, that the organization _ in their eyes _ has assembled supreme talent that will _ not might, but will _ perform successfully at the big-league level.
You have to admire the unrelenting optimism, even with the understanding that there's always uncertainty about how high-end prospects will play once they get to the big leagues. And two scouts said they believe the confidence is warranted (more on that in a minute), while another worries somewhat about the position prospects.
At the front of the pack, on the confidence/bravado line, is Marlins executive Gary Denbo, who as director of player development and trusted Derek Jeter confidante, has had his fingerprints on all of these personnel decisions made in conjunction with Jeter, baseball operations president Michael Hill and a group of executives.
"We made a lot of changes the first two years with players and staff; I feel we have turned the corner now," Denbo told Marlins radio host Kyle Sielaff recently. "We have exceptional young players in the organization and an exceptional coaching staff. Our amateur draft was exceptional. I trust more what our scouts think and what our coaches and analytics department say" than websites rating minor-league systems, who rate the Marlins in the top five now.
But, Denbo said, "top three or four or five [farm systems] in baseball, I would agree with that. We've got exceptional talent in the organization."
Here's how Denbo sees the Marlins' story unfolding during the next decade:
"This year we are going to have several of our younger prospects that will arrive in Miami. Our fans will love these players guys like [outfielders] Monte Harrison and Jesus Sanchez and maybe [potential No. 1 starter] Sixto Sanchez and maybe [high-end pitching prospect] Edward Cabrera and guys like [first baseman] Lewin Diaz.
"These guys are going to arrive this year and they will make an impact. These guys are not average major-league talent. They are exceptionally, exceptionally talented.
"After that, for the next several years, we feel like there are layers of talent that will arrive every year and will enable us to compete for championships every year. We are going to have young players competing for jobs every year, and it will be very exciting to watch. Our fans should be as optimistic as I am about going to the park and seeing these guys play. You are going to see exceptional tools, exceptional speed, power, and guys that can play exceptional defense. This team will be very fun to watch over the next several years."
That sure sounds a lot more reassuring than if a Marlins official had said something that is also true: We think we've done a good job building this the right way, but some of our top hitters at Triple A haven't had great success yet in the majors, so we're not totally sure how this is going to work out.
The Marlins finally have the organization structured like Jeter and Denbo wanted, with beefed-up scouting and emphasis on the Latin American and international markets; employees hired to teach players Spanish and life and assimilation skills; more protocols in place for how minor-league instructors should coach (running hard to first on all plays is the most basic of these) and an organizational hitting approach.
They strengthened the analytics department so scouts "have analytics they need to write better scouting reports," Denbo said.
Heck, the Marlins have even created a "mental skills department," Denbo noted. "Last year, we hired Derek Anderson, who's a highly qualified sports psychologist. We recently added Ruben Aybar in Santo Domingo to spend time with our players. They spend a lot of time talking about staying with the process and having a plan and staying positive."
There's also a blueprint for the type of athletes the Marlins want. "We look for guys with arm speed, bat speed, foot speed," Denbo said. "Hopefully we load up the organization as well as we can with players that have a chance to make an impact."
In retrospect, the Marlins' tear-it-down approach seemed justified _ because of the revenue challenges here _ and all of the trades look like sound except the Christian Yelich deal. The Marlins deserve credit for spending on three skilled hitters (Corey Dickerson, Jonathan Villar and Jesus Aguilar) even though they're likely not ready to contend.
But beyond the critical issue of how much the Marlins get in their new TV deal beginning in 2021 (we wrote about that here), the success of this rebuild will ultimately come down to whether five or so clearly above-average starters emerge from the dozen or so legitimate pitching prospects, and whether the Marlins have found a Ronald Acuna-type talent (or anything close to it) among position players JJ Bleday, Jazz Chisholm, Monte Harrison, Jesus Sanchez, Kameron Misner and others.
And there is some element of risk to this. As fangraphs noted: "The Marlins seem to have a taste for divisive, polarizing prospects who much of the industry perceives as risky, such as Lewin Brinson, Sandy Alcantara, Magneuris Sierra, and many more of the names currently on this list. That includes Jazz, who was acquired in exchange for Zac Gallen before the trade deadline. The swap meant Miami gave up six years of what looks like a mid-rotation starter for six-ish years of Chisholm, who might be a superstar or strike out too much to be anything at all.
"At a time when many teams are trending toward seeking concrete, measurable traits, shorter developmental timelines, and prospects who have lower outcome variance, the Marlins have targeted toolsy, high-risk prospects who might struggle because of unstable contact profiles, but otherwise have premium physical ability. This type of player runs through the farm system like a very wide river. This type of prospect also pretty clearly runs through the hitters more frequently than the arms. Gallen [later flipped], Nick Neidert, Jordan Yamamoto and Robert Dugger don't really fit this description."
Two longtime scouts who evaluated the Marlins' minor-league system last season, among their other responsibilities, said they're optimistic, one extremely so, one guardedly so.
"They've done a great job," said one longtime scout and executive with another team who has looked closely at the Marlins' minor-league system. "Denbo gets bad PR, but they've done well building this the right way. Sixto Sanchez, to me, looks like a young Bartolo Colon. [First baseman] Lewin Diaz has a good swing; looks like he could be a Mark Grace-type guy. I love [outfielder] Jesus Sanchez; he might be another Dave Parker."
The other scout said: "The future is bright, especially compared to what it was. It's much better with what they've developed and acquired. We'll see how it plays out, as a lot of things look good on paper in this game."
A third scout said "they're trying to do the right thing" but he's not sure there are All-Star-caliber bats in the system and believes a few (such as outfielder Victor Victor Mesa) have been overrated. That, of course, must play out.
Three-time manager of the year Buck Showalter told Craig Mish that "I love the way [Jeter is] going about it. He understands there are going to be some bumps along the way. Once you get good _ and they will get good _ I love some of the things they've done with their roster. A lot of people in baseball are pulling for them."
Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman told The Athletic: "The Marlins keep getting better; I envision them being us in a few years."
And former ESPN analyst Keith Law, in The Athletic, rated six Marlins in his top 100: shortstop Jazz Chisholm (15th); right-hander Edward Cabrera (34th); right-hander Sixto Sanchez (49th); left-hander Braxton Garrett (62nd); outfielder JJ Bleday (68th) and outfielder Jesus Sanchez (83rd).
The difficulty, of course, is the Marlins are in a division with four high-revenue teams with payrolls far exceeding the Marlins' financial wherewithal.
The last word from Denbo: "Our fans should know we are doing everything we can to put our players in the best position possible to have success when they arrive in Miami."
