MIAMI _ The Arizona Cardinals, in April, made the unusual move of selecting a quarterback high in the draft (Kyler Murray, first overall) after using a high pick on another quarterback (Josh Rosen) in the previous draft.
The Dolphins must hope that type of scenario doesn't happen again, because that could torpedo their grand plan of emerging from April's draft with a long-term answer at the position.
Sunday's win left the 2-7 Dolphins fourth in the current draft order, behind the 0-9 Bengals, 1-8 Redskins and the 2-8 Giants. Miami owns the tiebreaker, at the moment, against the 2-7 Jets (who are fifth in current draft slotting) and the 2-7 Falcons, who are sixth.
If Miami finishes with the same record as the Bengals and the Redskins, the Dolphins likely _ but not definitely _ would win a tiebreaker because their opponents have a worse cumulative record than Cincinnati's and Washington's opponents (which is the first draft tiebreaker).
A Dolphins-Jets tiebreaker and a Dolphins-Giants tiebreaker could go either way, based on remaining results for all three of those teams' opponents.
If the Dolphins draft behind only Cincinnati _ or Cincinnati and Atlanta _ then Miami should be able to emerge with one of the top two quarterback prospects in the draft, either Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa or LSU's Joe Burrow. The Falcons _ whose pass rush had been deficient before sacking Saints quarterback Drew Brees six times on Sunday _ have quarterback Matt Ryan under contract for the next four years, and likely would look at drafting Ohio State defensive end Chase Young.
If the Dolphins pick behind only Cincinnati and the Giants, it's also likely Miami would be able to land one of those two quarterbacks because Giants rookie first-round pick Daniel Jones (15 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 88 rating) has shown promise as a rookie.
But if the Dolphins pick behind the Bengals and the Redskins or the Bengals and potentially the Jets, then there would be more reason for anxiety if the Dolphins want Tagovailoa or Burrow.
That's because the Redskins _ similar to what the Cardinals did in April _ could decide that the quarterback that the Bengals bypassed (Tagovailoa or Burrow) is superior to Dwayne Haskins, who they drafted in the first round in April. The Redskins will get a good look at Haskins the next two months; on Monday, the team named him the starter for the remainder of the season.
Haskins has struggled in limited playing time, with zero touchdowns, four interceptions and a 42.4 passer rating.
There's also a chance that whoever is running the Jets could decide Tagovailoa or Burrow has better long-term upside than Sam Darnold, who has been erratic since his return from mononucleosis and has seven touchdowns, nine interceptions and a poor 74.5 rating for the season.
As long as the Dolphins stay in the top five, and the Giants and Falcons are two of the other teams in the top five, they would have a very good chance of landing Oregon's Justin Herbert _ considered by some to be the third-best QB in the class _ or Burrow or Tagovailoa if Herbert goes before either of those two Southeastern Conference quarterbacks.
So unless they win several more games, the Dolphins remain in good position to land one of the top three QBs. But they're now long shots to have first choice among those three.
Though the Dolphins theoretically could trade some of their treasure trove of draft picks to trade up for a quarterback, it's unlikely that a team that wants Tagovailoa or Burrow would acquiesce.
Among the six teams with two or fewer wins, the Dolphins might have the easiest remaining schedule, which further jeopardizes their draft standing. They play only two teams with a winning record (home to Philadelphia and at New England during a season finale when the Patriots might be resting starters). The other games _ home to Buffalo, at Cleveland, at Jets, at Giants and home to Bengals _ would all be considered winnable.
The Bengals, in the driver's seat for the top pick, have three games against teams with winning records (at Oakland, Pittsburgh, New England), plus the Jets, Cleveland twice and the Dec. 22 game at Miami.
For the Dolphins, the team whose results could end up most meaningful in the Tua/Burrow dynamic could be the Redskins, because of uncertainty of whether they would draft one of those quarterbacks and move on from Haskins.
Washington has three very winnable games on its schedule _ the next two weeks at home against the Jets and Detroit, and Dec. 22 at home against the Giants. But they will be clear underdogs in four December games: at Carolina, at Green Bay, home against Philadelphia and at Dallas.
The fact the Jets play at the Redskins on Sunday and at the Bengals on Dec. 1 will help Miami because one of those teams will emerge with a win in each of those games, barring an unlikely tie. The Jets also host Oakland, Miami and Pittsburgh and play at Baltimore and Buffalo.
Dolphins coach Brian Flores, who has made clear that winning is the priority, was asked Monday if he ever thinks about the fact that winning more games could diminish the franchise's chances of landing a top quarterback in the draft.
"It's not something I think about," he said. "I think about this team, the message to the team this morning and the message to the team at 4 o'clock, about Buffalo. And I get started on Buffalo. There's not enough time to get into all that. My job is to put the team in the best position to be productive and win football games. Every head coach and general manager and organization is thinking about things long term and short term. We're no different. Right now, my goal is get each one of those guys in the that locker room better and be as good as they can be. That's the goal for me and this coaching staff."
