MIAMI _ The Miami Dolphins enter the final two weeks of the season with the likelihood of having a top a top-five pick in April's NFL Draft, presuming they lose as heavy underdogs in New England on the final day of the season.
But one thing is already certain: For the Dolphins to have any chance of having their choice of any quarterback in this draft, they need _ for starters _ to lose Sunday at home against the Cincinnati Bengals.
ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., among others, have said the Bengals very likely will select LSU's Joe Burrow if they stay in the top spot in the draft. Burrow is considered the cleanest and best quarterback prospect, amid Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa's hip injury and Justin Herbert's uneven season for Oregon.
To move to the first overall spot, the Dolphins would need to lose to the 1-13 Bengals and at the Patriots, and the Bengals would need to beat the Dolphins and then win at home against Cleveland. But the Giants likely also would need to win another game _ either at Washington on Sunday or home against Philadelphia _ because the 3-11 Giants likely would win a tiebreaker against the 3-11 Dolphins by virtue of the Giants' opponents having a lower winning percentage than Miami's (47.3 to 49.3). A lot would need to happen for that to change.
The Dolphins would get the higher pick if they finish tied with the Bengals because Cincinnati's opponents have a much higher winning percentage (56.5) than Miami's.
But even if all five of these things happen _ two Dolphins losses, two Bengals wins and a Giants win _ it's still not certain the Dolphins would pick first, because the strength-of-schedule draft tiebreaker between the 3-11 Dolphins and 3-11 Redskins remains too close to call.
At the moment, Dolphins and Redskins opponents each have a 49.3 winning percentage, but Miami is in the third slot _ ahead of Washington _ because of the fourth tiebreaker, which is head-to-head. Miami lost to Washington when the teams played.
The second and third draft order tiebreakers for non-playoff teams (conference and division records) aren't applicable because the Dolphins and Redskins play in different conferences.
So that would be the road to the top overall pick, and the likely selection of Burrow. And though it requires a handful of steps, it's not thoroughly improbable.
And keep this in mind, too: Even if the Giants or Redskins finish with a higher pick than Miami, the Dolphins might still be able to land Burrow as long as they're ahead of the Bengals. The Giants and Redskins, who drafted quarterbacks in the first round in April, might be more inclined to select Ohio State defensive end Chase Young.
Here's the most realistic road to the next few picks:
_ Selecting second could be achieved by losing out, the Bengals winning twice and the Giants losing out. In that scenario, New York likely would pick first and Miami second and Cincinnati third. (Washington would have beaten New York to get a fourth win in this scenario.)
But if the Dolphins win Sunday, it becomes difficult to land either of the top two prospects in the draft _ Burrow or Young. That's why winning Sunday could be potentially damaging and eliminate any dream scenario of Miami drafting Young second overall and then trading the Houston and Pittsburgh first-round picks to move to select Tagovailoa in the, say, 6 to 12, range.
If Miami wins Sunday, the (highly unlikely) way the Dolphins likely could pick second would be if the Giants win twice (at Washington and Philadelphia), the Lions win once (at Denver or home against Green Bay), the Redskins win at the Cowboys, and Miami loses to New England and emerges the winner of a tiebreaker with Washington. That's a lot to expect.
_ Selecting third or fourth or fifth: This is most likely if Miami beats Cincinnati and loses to New England.
And that would leave the Dolphins facing a difficult decision: either trade down to select Tagovailoa (whose hip injury could make third too high) or someone else; draft Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert in that slot (a bit higher than where he's projected) or select the best non-quarterback on their board among wide receivers Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) and CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma), defensive lineman Derrick Brown (Auburn), cornerback Jeffrey Okudah (Ohio State), offensive tackle Andrew Thomas (Georgia), safety Grant Delpit (LSU) and linebacker Isaiah Simmons (Clemson).
Meanwhile, if the Dolphins surprisingly beat both the Bengals and Patriots, they could pick as low as 10th, though the selection likely would be slightly higher than that.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh and Houston picks due Miami currently stand 22nd and 23rd.
Houston appears in good position to make the playoffs, and what round a team is eliminated in postseason determines draft order.
But there's still a chance the Steelers' first-round pick could finish in the late teens if Tennessee beats out Pittsburgh for the final playoff spot.
Both the Steelers and Titans are 8-6, and Pittsburgh narrowly owns the tiebreaker at the moment (superior conference record), though that could change. The Steelers close the season at the Jets and Ravens, while Tennessee plays host to New Orleans and then travels to Houston.
