MIAMI _ For some Dolphins fans, the drama surrounding the jockeying for position at the top of the 2020 NFL draft is the perverse equivalent of the suspense/anxiety experienced by fans during a race for a playoff berth.
And the stakes might be equally high, if not higher.
With some luck and more losing, the Dolphins could be positioned to select LSU's Joe Burrow, the quarterback considered the safest and best prospect by several draft analysts, amid the hip injury to Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa.
But in another scenario, the Dolphins could miss out altogether on a franchise quarterback _ if Tagovailoa returns to Alabama for a senior season or if his medicals raise more red flags _ and also miss out on the transformational defensive prospect in this draft, Ohio State defensive end Chase Young, who has 16.5 sacks in nine games.
The 2-9 Dolphins stand fourth in the current draft order, per NFL.com, and realistically are competing with five other teams for draft position: Cincinnati (0-11 and in the top spot in the current draft order), the Giants (2-9, in the second second), Washington (2-9, in the third spot), Denver (3-8, fifth) and Atlanta (3-8, sixth). Miami would need to win two more games _ a tall task _ to risk falling behind Detroit and Arizona, who are both 3-7-1.
If teams finish tied, the better draft pick goes to the team whose opponents have the lowest cumulative winning percentage. And in this area, the Dolphins are in good position to beat out Cincinnati and Atlanta and probably Denver for a better pick if Miami has the same record as any or all of those teams. But Miami is on pace to lose a tie to the Giants and is in a precarious position against Washington.
All of the Dolphins' opponents this season currently have an 89-87 record, compared with 102-73-1 for Cincinnati, 81-93-2 for the Giants, 89-86-1 for Washington, 93-81-1 for Denver and 100-75-1 for Atlanta.
The Redskins situation is particularly worrisome. At one point, Miami had a substantial lead in the strength of schedule (SOS) tiebreaker. If the records of all of Washington's and Miami's opponents are tabulated (including games remaining on their schedules), Miami would be very narrowly ahead in terms of getting the better pick. Washington leads narrowly if only opponents to date are factored into the SOS formula, which explains why NFL.com has the Redskins ahead of Miami as of now.
Opponents that the Dolphins play twice count twice in the SOS tabulation.
Here's the most likely path for Miami to finish with a top-four pick:
