If there were odds on such things, the Heat appears more likely than not to operate as an over-the-cap team this summer, an approach which would allow Miami to retain Goran Dragic and Avery Bradley while executing a sign-and-trade for a top free agent this August or acquire a significant player before the March 25 trade deadline.
But the Heat’s other option - trying to fit outside free agents under the projected $112.4 million cap without needing a sign-and-trade to do it — has emerged as a possibility worth considering.
And which approach to take could rest in large part on the health and performance of Dragic, Bradley and Houston guard Victor Oladipo during the remainder of the season.
We will explain in a minute, but first, a look at where the Heat stands as far as 2021 cap space:
If the cap ends up at the $112.4 million projection, the Heat is positioned to have between $22 million and $29 million in cap space this summer. The difference hinges on the cap numbers of impending restricted free agents Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn, which aren’t entirely set, and whether Miami opts to keep them.
Robinson’s 2021-22 cap number for the Heat if he re-signs with Miami, regardless of his salary next season, would be $4.7 million if he remains a restricted free agent or $1.7 million if Miami agrees to make him an unrestricted free agent (something the Heat likely wouldn’t do without assurances he would re-sign).
Nunn’s 2021-22 cap number for the Heat if he re-signs with Miami, regardless of his salary next season, would be $4.7 million, $2.1 million or $1.7 million (if he is made an unrestricted instead of a restricted free agent).
So let’s say, for this hypothetical, that Robinson and Nunn carry the lowest cap hits ($1.4 million). The Heat’s cap commitments for 2021-22 would be those two holds/hits (presuming Miami wants to keep those two players), Jimmy Butler ($36 million), Bam Adebayo ($28.1 million), Tyler Herro ($4 million), Precious Achiuwa ($2.7 million) and KZ Okpala ($1.8 million).
There would also be $4 million in required cap holds for empty roster spots and Ryan Anderson’s $5.2 million waive-and-stretch hit.
That adds up to $84.6 million, if the Heat declines the team options on Dragic, Bradley, Meyers Leonard and Andre Iguodala and parts ways with Chris Silva, whose 2021-22 salary isn’t guaranteed. (Quick aside: Adebayo’s salary would rise by a few million if he’s named first team All-NBA or Defensive Player of the Year. We’re not using those higher figures for purposes of this exercise.)
If the cap is the $112.4 million projected by The Athletic, that would leave Miami with $28 million in space.
As perspective, Victor Oladipo’s first-year max would be $33.7 million with a $112.4 million cap. Oladipo’s interest in the Heat is no secret.
But let’s say Oladipo decides to stay in Houston or let’s say the Heat decides it does not want to offer a max contract to Oladipo, who is averaging 19.8 points this season (for Indiana and now Houston), while shooting 40.2 percent from the field and 32.9 percent on threes.
Clippers star Kawhi Leonard’s first-year max would be $40.5 million, but the chances of the Heat luring Leonard in free agency this summer seem to be a long shot.
So let’s say the Heat cannot get Leonard or Milwaukee impending free agent Jrue Holiday (who also has a $40.5 million first-year max) and doesn’t sign Oladipo.
A case then could be made for using that $28 million in space — or much of it — on one 2021 unrestricted free agent who falls under the max, such as Toronto’s Kyle Lowry (who’s averaging 17.6 points, 7.0 assists, 36.9 percent on threes) or San Antonio’s DeMar DeRozan, who is having a wonderful season for the Spurs (20.5 points, 6.8 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 49.0 percent from the field).
Some fan bases underestimate DeRozan — who has been playing a lot of power forward for the Spurs — because of the lack of a three-point game. But the production (eight consecutive seasons averaging 20 or more a game) shouldn’t be overlooked; Warriors coach Steve Kerr said this week that DeRozan is Hall of Fame worthy.
Though DeRozan is a career 28.4 percent three-point shooter, he’s shooting threes better this season: 15 of 43, 34.9 percent. His midrange game remains exemplary and he’s only 31.
The Heat, in this scenario, could give two-year deals (with a second-year team option) to Lowry or DeRozan — or perhaps Utah’s Mike Conley (16.5 points, 41 percent on threes) — and maintain flexibility, with the ability to add a max free agent in 2022 (potentially Bradley Beal, or if Nets stars Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving or James Harden exercise opt outs that summer).
To achieve max space in 2022, the Heat likely would need to eventually trade Robinson if Miami re-signs him this summer.
Montrezl Harrell and Serge Ibaka could be other options this summer — along with Lowry, DeRozan and Conley in this cap space scenario — if they opt out of the second year of deals with the Lakers and Clippers, respectively.
Younger impending 2021 unrestricted free agents — such as Spencer Dinwiddie (27) and Kelly Oubre (25) — presumably would be looking for longer deals than Lowry, 34 or Conley, 33, would be seeking this summer.
This idea of using cap space, instead of operating as an over-the-cap team, becomes more appealing if Dragic and Bradley decline this season because of injuries; both are currently out.
If Dragic and Bradley play at a high level, there would be more incentive to exercise their 2021-22 player options ($19.4 million for Dragic, $5.9 million for Bradley) and operate as an over-the-cap team instead of as a room team.
But don’t assume the Heat will opt for the “over the cap” approach.
The other avenue — using cap space this summer — could leave the Heat with a 2021-22 roster of Butler, Adebayo, Herro, Achiuwa, Robinson, Nunn, Okpala and one among DeRozan, Conley or Lowry or perhaps Harrell or Ibaka — plus a player with the $5 million room exception. (Teams using the room exception cannot use the $3.8 million biannual exception.)
It would also leave the Heat with all of its young assets (Herro, Achiuwa, Robinson, Nunn) that could be used if Beal became available in September or beyond.
Amin Elhassan, the former Suns front office official who left ESPN to join Dan Le Batard’s new media venture, said he would give up Herro in a Beal deal — Beal isn’t currently available — because “if Herro is ever as good as Beal, you are throwing a party. Why not get Beal now?”
Because New Orleans, Philadelphia, Boston, Atlanta and Golden State have draft assets to offer Washington that the Heat lacks, Elhassan said the key for Miami would be having “Bradley say, ‘I want to go to Miami’ and that would influence it.”
He said the Pelicans “will not give you this war chest of picks for a guy who’s non committal” about staying long-term. Beal holds a player option for 2022-23.
Elhassan, whose Sirius XM Radio show with Heat TV host Jason Jackson airs from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. on Sundays, said by phone that he does not believe the Heat need an overhaul. One move - aside from acquiring a star - that Elhassan could justify is exploring what it would take to add a power forward, if the cost isn’t high.
“PJ Tucker, Rudy Gay, if guys like that become available you see what it takes, if it’s palatable,” he said. “LaMarcus Aldridge is a different one because he hasn’t been good; defensively he won’t make you better. His inability to space the floor makes life harder for Bam.”
