Summary: Climate change protests and rate rise hints
Time for a recap:
Activists have challenged the City of London to do more to tackle the climate emergency, but Brexit is still higher up the agenda.
Protesters descended on the Bank of England today, to urge governor Mark Carney and colleagues to use their regulatory powers to rein in lending to fossil fuel industries
They also want the Bank to use its QE stimulus package to support green companies, not those responsible for carbon emissions. Here’s some video from the event.
The #ClimateEmergency demands all our institutions support rapid decarbonisation and the Bank of England is no exception! It's time to #GreenTheBoE ✊ pic.twitter.com/ExSzF9qWfz
— David Clarke (@DavidFClarke) May 2, 2019
Speaking after the protest, Fran Boait of Positive Money warned that the Bank was “complicit in the climate crisis”.
Carney, though, says the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee has been taking a lead, encouraging City firms to face the crisis. He said financial firms must be flexible to changes in policy, as MPs yesterday backed calls to declare a climate emergency.
Speaking after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, Britain’s top central banker warned that Brexit uncertainty was still weighing on business investment.
But....he also raised the Bank’s growth forecasts, and hinted strongly that interest rates could rise faster than the meagre one rate hike expected by markets.
Protesters also targeted Barclays Bank, which is one of the worse offenders for funding the fossil fuel industry. They demonstrated outside, and even disrupted CEO Jes Staley’s speech to shareholders.
Dharma Action Network outside Barclays AGM. Barclays blind to the climate crisis .. #climatechange pic.twitter.com/xfjWGZXDgC
— Joseph Mishan (@joseph_mishan) May 2, 2019
It was a mixed day for Barclays -- they managed to repel activist investor Edward Bramson’s bid for a board seat, but also suffered a backlash over executive pay.
Mark Carney’s key message today is that interest rates will probably rise faster than investors think, says our economics editor Larry Elliott.
Investment has fallen for four successive quarters, trade has been a drag on growth and the economy has become even more dependent on the willingness of households to carry on spending.
Investment is expected to bounce back once Brexit has been resolved, while low unemployment and rising real incomes will continue to support household spending. In those circumstances, the MPC is likely to become markedly more hawkish.
Newsflash: Barclays has suffered a pay revolt, hot on the heels of the climate change protests at its AGM today.
30% of shareholders opposed the bank’s remuneration report, a slapdown for CEO Jes Staley and colleagues.
Some reaction to the Tesla fund-raising drive:
$10m represents a 0.13% increase on Elon's existing 19% $7.8bn stake in Tesla, and means that Elon's stake is actually being reduced via this offering.
— Gareth Baines (@DrGABaines) May 2, 2019
He’s need to spend $125m to keep his stake unchanged).
Not a glowing endorsement. https://t.co/SD3yVSVrks
Watching Tesla rally on a $650 million stock offering... pic.twitter.com/y97ugvsO9z
— Greg Guenthner (@GregGuenthner) May 2, 2019
Tesla raises $2.3bn
In other environmental-business news, Tesla launched a new $2.3bn fundraising drive.
It is raising the cash by issuing new shares and debt. CEO Elon Musk is chipping in $10m personally, following pressure from Wall Street to bolster Tesla’s cash reserves.
Tesla needs the money to fund its ongoing expansion plans and hit the production targets. This would quieten sceptics who don’t believe Musk will revolutionise the car industry with Tesla’s range of electric, self-driving cars.
Reuters explains:
Analysts have been predicting for months that Tesla would need to raise funds for its expansion plans, which include the construction of a factory in Shanghai, the upcoming Model Y SUV, and the crucial ramp up of Model 3 sedan production.
Shares in Tesla have jumped by 3.75% in early trading, to $242.78.
Russ Mould, AJ Bell Investment Director, warned last week that Tesla was facing a cash crunch:
The immediate pressure may be off, now that Tesla has repaid $1.1 billion in convertible bonds that matured in November and March, but Elon Musk and his colleagues face another $566 million repayment this coming November, even as the company continues to consume cash rather than generate it.”
“The debate over whether the firm needs to raise fresh capital is therefore not going to go away. Given the loyal band of shareholders he has and the company’s massive market capitalisation it would make sense for Mr Musk to do so.
Musk has clearly come to the same conclusion, having seen Tesla’s cash pile dip last quarter:
Just in: photos of climate change protesters being dragged away by security outside Barclays annual investor meeting in London this morning.
Resolution Foundation have tweeted a chart showing how the financial markets expect interest rates to rise extremely slowly -- which is why Mark Carney is signalling they may accelerate faster:
Lower for (even) longer. UK market expectations for Bank Rate have followed downward movements in US and euro-area expectations over recent months. Latest expectations imply Bank Rate will only break 1% by the middle of 2022; some 13 years after it last stood above this level pic.twitter.com/TC5VoWHPI3
— Matt Whittaker (@MattWhittakerRF) May 2, 2019
The press conference is now over, so here’s a snap summary from CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche:
#BankOfEngland: Reasons for upward growth revision this year : Q1 now 0.5% vs 0.3% in March:
— Joumanna Bercetche (@CNBCJou) May 2, 2019
1- better than expected US, Eurozone & China growth
2- stockpiling (adds ~0.1% qoq)
3- lower market interest rates and easier financial conditions
#BankOfEngland: on #brexit
— Joumanna Bercetche (@CNBCJou) May 2, 2019
1-no mention at all of latest brexit extension impact
2- still see investment drag (-2.5%) this year on brexit uncertainty
3- expect data to remain volatile
4- projections still conditioned on “smooth adjustment to the av range of possible outcomes”
In response to @ChrisGiles_ question, #Carney says “MPC are not more relaxed than usual about forecasts”... 2.1% , 2.2% is not consistent with inflation remit
— Joumanna Bercetche (@CNBCJou) May 2, 2019
Presser more hawkish than QIR really emphasizing excess demand but not until a “year or so” says Broadbent $GBP #BOE
Q: What is your message ahead of next month’s G20 meeting in Japan?
Mark Carney singles out the dangers of financial market fragmentation - he hopes to do more work to fight this.
He also implicitly criticises the US-China trade war, warning that new goods trade agreements won’t solve the current imbalances within global trade.
Q: Where would your forecast be without the rise in consumer spending? And would you agree that without immigration and tough welfare rules, the economy would be flat?
Carney takes the first point, saying the economy was “bang in line” with the Bank’s forecasts -- thanks to higher consumption.
But you can’t just strip that out...had consumers been less bullish, inflation would have been lower, so interest rates might have been different, and the whole picture would change.
Q: Are the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank now at the same point on monetary policy?
Errr no, Carney replies. Every economy, every central bank, every family is unique, but the BoE is facing a certain large issue (Brexit!) that will affect the economy in a certain way.
Back to Brexit...
Q: Your surveys shows that a quarter of UK firms still don’t have a Brexit plan in place. Should they act now?
Mark Carney replies that firms expect a no-deal Brexit would knock their output by 3.5% on average.
He says small firms tend to be the ones without contingency plans. Some are “hoping for the best” on Brexit, while others simply can’t prepare.
Deputy governor Ben Broadbent weight in too - pointing out that contingency plans are expensive, and stock-piling sucks up capital.
Carney on the climate change threat
Q: My colleague Larry Elliott asks about climate change -- shouldn’t the Bank’s monetary policy committee consider this issue?
Carney explains that the Bank’s financial policy committee has been doing a lot of work on climate change -- because it’s a long-term issue, that can threaten financial stability.
Parliaments’ decision to declare a climate emergency yesterday backs up the FPC’s work, he says.
That work includes looking at the future framework which companies work under. When policies to address climate change are tightened, financial institutions and the firms they fund need to be ready.
Events of recent weeks have reinforced the need to be flexible to changes in climate policy, he says -- a hint that firms can’t put their heads in the sand any more.
Carney then concedes that the MPC looks at short-term issues - its forecasts only cover the next few years. That’s not ideal when you’re looking at the looming threat of global warming [which explains why climate change doesn’t appear in the minutes of May’s meeting].
The governor says:
For us, we spend a lot of time focusing on what happens on the next few quarters and the next few years....
This was a point I tried to make a few years ago - the tragedy of the horizon is that when it becomes relevant for monetary policy it will be too late.
Q: What are the growth implications if Britain agreed a customs union with the EU?
Mark Carney explains that there are various sorts of customs union. The Bank’s forecasts assume that Brexit will create a situation midway between an EEA-style agreement (close integration) and a move to WTO rules (less integration).
More integration would imply higher growth and investment in the short term, and possibly more inflation too.
Q: Would you welcome it?
Parliament must make a number of very large trade-offs when reaching agreement with the EU, including financial services access, Carney replies.
One issue is whether the City becomes a rule-taker from Europe after Brexit (if it’s forced to follow EU rules without helping to write them).
Q: You risk missing your gender diversity targets, so should the next Bank of England governor be a woman?
Mark Carney (flanked by three other men) insists that the Bank is making good progress on gender diversity. The number of women in senior management has risen from 17% in 2013 to over 31% today, and the pipeline of new employees is showing greater diversity on gender, and ethnicity.
Carney (who steps down in January) adds:
We’re shifting the dial, without question.
My successor is a question for the government, he adds, declining to express a preference.
Several women are thought to be in the frame to succeed Carney:
Q: What needs to happen to encourage businesses to invest, rather than just moaning?
Mark Carney suggests this is a bit unfair - firms are rightly cautious about making big investments
More and more of them don’t expect Brexit to be resolved by the end of this year, so they’re unwilling to take big decisions.
Amusingly, the City seems to be ignoring Mark Carney’s hints that interest rates may rise faster than they expect.
The pound is as flat and calm as a millpond, basically unchanged against the US dollar at $1.305.
Traders may remember that Carney gave an identical warning in 2015 -- only to leave rates at record lows, and then cut them after the EU referendum.
Q: How can you say that the risk of a disorderly Brexit have eased?
Carney points out that MPs voted against a no-deal Brexit.
To paraphrase #Carney, markets underprice what the #BoE expects to happen, which depends on the assumption of an orderly Brexit. The BoE implied rate curve may, therefore, be on the move coming months, boosting #sterling.
— Bart Hordijk (@Bart___Hordijk) May 2, 2019
Carney: Markets under-estimating interest rate hikes
Onto questions:
Q: Can you shed more light on the Bank’s plans for interest rate rises in the next couple of years?
Governor Carney explains that the BoE expects to make further withdrawal of monetary stimulus.. which means more interest rate hikes.
And he then repeats his warning that the markets are under-estimating future interest rate hikes.
Carney: potential for “more and more frequent interest rate rises than the market expects”
— Adam Parsons (@AdamParsons1) May 2, 2019
BoE Governor Carney says there are insufficient hikes in the market curve $GBP
— DailyFX Team Live (@DailyFXTeam) May 2, 2019
[Explanation: The Bank runs an economic model that estimates the cost of living against market expectations of future borrowing costs, to decide whether it needs to tighten faster, or slower, than the City expects].
Mark Carney warns that investors may be under-estimating future UK interest rate rises.
The current market interest rate curve is “unequal to the task” of achieving the Bank’s inflation target, he says -- in other words, rates must rise faster, or inflation will overshoot.
The Bank expects to raise interest rates at a gradual rate, he adds.
Mark Carney begins his press conference by explaining that global tensions have eased since the Bank of England’s last Quarterly Inflation Report in February.
Financial conditions have improved, global trade appears to be stabilising, and trade tensions may be abating, the governor explains.
But domestic tensions remain against this “benign” global backdrop, Carney continues -- a reference to Brexit.
Consumption has been stronger than expected, but business investment fell by 2% rather than growing by 4%.
Britain faces the longest run of falling business investment in the post-war era, Carney says sternly, given the uncertainty over Britain’s future relationship with the EU.
The number of firms with Brexit contingency plans in place has risen from a half in February, to around three quarters today. Many have been focused on stock-building, which has boosted growth in the last quarter.
But many firms still fear economic harm from a no-deal Brexit, Carney continues. And in the short term, firms have hired more staff rather than investing in expensive equipment. That’s good for unemployment, and wage growth, but presumably bad for productivity.
Here’s our news story on the Bank’s interest rate decision:
Carney press conference begins
Mark Carney is holding a press conference now to discuss the inflation report (and perhaps climate change too?). It’s being streamed live here.
The Bank is also sticking to its pledge that interest rates will rise (but not today!) at a gradual pace.
We have kept interest rates at 0.75%. Find out why in our visual summary: https://t.co/NErJey2wDI #InflationReport pic.twitter.com/e66OrM3Owm
— Bank of England (@bankofengland) May 2, 2019
Brexit appears no fewer than 87 times in the Quarterly Inflation Report.
The Bank says Britain’s struggle to leave the EU has hit business investment, driven up stockpiling, and deterred some people from moving house.
Disappointingly, the words ‘climate change’ don’t seem to appear in the minutes of the Bank of England’s meeting (online here), or in the Quarterly Inflation Report (online here).
I can’t find ‘green’ and ‘environmental’ in their either, despite Mark Carney’s apparent concern for the issue (and the damaging impact that the climate emergency could have on the economy).
The Bank of England has raised its growth forecast for the UK, now that the threat of an immediate no-deal Brexit has receded.
It now expects Britain’s GDP to grow by 1.5% this year, up from just 1.2% forecast in February.
In its interest rate statement the Bank says:
GDP is expected to have grown by 0.5% in 2019 Q1, in part reflecting a larger-than-expected boost from companies in the United Kingdom and the European Union building stocks ahead of recent Brexit deadlines.
That boost is expected to be temporary, however, and quarterly growth is expected to slow to around 0.2% in Q2. Smoothing through those developments, the underlying pace of GDP growth appears to be slightly stronger than previously anticipated, but marginally below potential.
The Bank also warns that businesses are continuing to slash investment - which bodes badly for future growth (and indeed for climate-related projects)
That subdued pace reflects the impact of the slowdown in global growth and ongoing Brexit uncertainties. The latter is having a particularly pronounced impact on business investment, which has been falling for a year.
Here’s a video clip confirming that some of the climate activists at Barclays were forcibly moved by security staff - even though the protest appeared entirely peaceful.
The moment #DivestBarclays campaigners attempted to protest @Barclays AGM over their fossil fuel funding.
— People & Planet (@peopleandplanet) May 2, 2019
Heavy handed security to say the least! pic.twitter.com/83ptseT0t4
Activists from @peopleandplanet take the floor and ask @Barclays CEO to tell the truth as he shamelessly promotes the bank's climate action.
— Fossil Banks No Thanks (@NoFossilBanks) May 2, 2019
The truth? Barclays has been pouring over $85bn into #fossilfuels since the #ParisAgreement.#FossilBanksNoThanks #BarclaysAGM pic.twitter.com/PBME59CQlz
Bank of England interest rate decision
Newsflash: The Bank of England has left UK interest rates unchanged at 0.75%.
It’s a unanimous vote too; all nine policymakers judged it’s too early to raise borrowing costs, given the current Brexit uncertainty
More to follow....
Barclays defends climate record
Barclays CEO Jes Staley has claimed that the bank does take climate change seriously.
He told shareholders that the Bank wants to help the move to a low carbon economy, and gave several examples of this commitment:
- £27bn of funding for social and environmental segments around the world last year, including issuing green bonds and renewable financing.
- The first major UK bank to launch a green mortgage (to buy an energy efficient home)
- A £118m loan to help build an ‘Energy from Waste’ Power Plant in Bedfordshire.
- Green Agriculture loans to famers to buy new environmentally friendly plant and equipment.
- Selling its controlling stake in Yorkshire fracking firm Third Energy
Staley adds that Barclays is also cleaning up its game, by refusing to financing oil or gas exploration in the Arctic, or greenfield thermal coal mining activity.
He declares (to the echoes of climate protesters leaving the room):
Put simply, Barclays fully understands our corporate responsibility in respect of climate change. We are a supporter of the goals of the Paris accord. And we will keep our policy position under constant review to ensure that our actions align with those goals.
But activists simply aren’t convinced. Remember, it’s been labelled the top European banker of fracking and coal.
Updated
Today’s protests have overshadowed activist investor Edward Bramson’s attempt to win a seat on Barclay’s board.
Bramson seems to have been unsuccessful, but won’t give up his battle.
Kalyeena Makortoff reports:
Bramson made an appearance at the Barclays AGM in London on Thursday morning, conceding early defeat over his resolution to become a bank director.
“Before we start I think it’s fair to tell you that we know we haven’t got a majority of the vote.” Instead, Bramson said he expects a “fairly heavy vote against” his resolution. “We’ve known it for a couple of weeks.”
Some Barclays shareholders applauded the climate protesters as they left the AGM - showing the City does have a degree of sympathy for their cause.
The group was eventually led out of the main hall, but received applause from the investor crowd as they left
— Kalyeena Makortoff (@kalyeena) May 2, 2019
Here’s another video clip of the protests:
Climate change protestors interrupt ceo Jes Staley @Barclays AGM @BBCBusiness pic.twitter.com/01H0mX62IX
— Danielle Codd (@DanielleCodd) May 2, 2019
This article from March explains how Barclays is in the firing line for funding tens of billions of pounds of environmentally harmful projects:
Activists disrupt Barclays AGM
Barclays annual meeting has just been disrupted by climate activists.
They’ve interrupted CEO Jes Staley’s speech, and are calling on the bank to tell the truth about its role funding the fossil fuel industry.
A group of climate protesters have linked arms and disrupted the Barclays AGM for another year running, yelling "climate justice" and "tell the truth" pic.twitter.com/AIOz5xlKhX
— Kalyeena Makortoff (@kalyeena) May 2, 2019
Climate change protesters have infiltrated the Barclays AGM, interrupting chief executive Jes Staley’s speech on the subject. pic.twitter.com/V0l8B0CHDu
— Callum Keown (@CallumKeown1) May 2, 2019
Reuters is reporting that several of the protesters outside Barclays’ AGM were “dragged away” by security staff and police.
Here’s its take:
Protesters called on Barclays to end its financing of fossil fuel projects outside the lender’s annual investor meeting in London on Thursday,where shareholders were gathering to vote on a possible boardroom revamp.
Campaigners from student activist network People & Planet waved banners reading ‘Fossil Banks-No Thanks’, days after environmental group Extinction Rebellion paralysed parts of the British capital in protests against the impact of climate change.
Several protesters were dragged away from the venue at the QEII conference centre in Westminster by police and security.
More here: Barclays targeted by climate change protest ahead of activist showdown
Back in the markets, shares in Dutch football club Ajax have hit a fresh all-time high this morning, after it put one foot in the Champion’s League final.
Ajax secured a 1-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur on Tuesday night -- something of an escape for an injury-ravaged and generally outplayed Spurs.
With markets closed yesterday, traders are now hailing Ajax’s efforts, which leaves them odds-on to make European football’s blue-riband event (but nothing’s certain in football...)
Qualifying for the final is worth €15m, compared with €12m for crashing out in the semis. Win the Big Cup and you collect an extra €4m, plus extra sponsorship and merchandising rights -- and the prospect of lucrative transfer offers for your best players.
Ajax shares trading at all-time highs on hopes of reaching the Champions League finals against Barcelona and then selling all their star players to the Catalan side.$AJAX +90% over the past year pic.twitter.com/9MLCCL5OBp
— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) May 2, 2019
My colleague Kalyeena Makortoff reports that some of the protesters outside Barclays AGM have hot-footed it from the Bank of England.
Climate protesters gathered outside the Barclays AGM at Westminster this morning, some said they came straight from the Bank of England action earlier on pic.twitter.com/W7H0BZtWxB
— Kalyeena Makortoff (@kalyeena) May 2, 2019
Barclays shareholders arriving at today’s annual general meeting at the QE2 centre are being urged to press the bank to stop funding fossil fuel protests:
This is a #ClimateEmergency! @Barclays must go #FossilFree 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XLJG68qBGI
— People & Planet (@peopleandplanet) May 2, 2019
The BBC’s Danielle Codd is also outside the Barclays AGM:
Small climate change protest outside @Barclays AGM as investors enter... pic.twitter.com/J6yP0qHjWt
— Danielle Codd (@DanielleCodd) May 2, 2019
Climate activists target Barclays AGM
Barclays Bank is also feeling the wrath of climate change activists.
Protesters are demonstrating outside its Annual General Meeting in London this morning, urging it to stop investing in fossil fuel projects.
.@NoFossilBanks protest at the #Barclays #AGM! #ClimateEmergency pic.twitter.com/Y9EP2Afee4
— Sonia Hierzig (@soniah1991) May 2, 2019
A recent report found that Barclays was the worst offender in Europe when it comes to investing in environmentally harmful projects.
Since the Paris agreement was signed at the end of 2015, Barclays has reportedly provided $85bn of funding to the fossil fuel industry, from Britain’s fracking industry to the Dakota Access pipeline in North America, and exploitation of Canada’s tar sands.
.@ShareAction has today together with investors with over $1trn assets written to @Barclays - ‘worst in Europe’ for fossil fuel financing - calling on the bank to restrict its massive financing of #tarsands and #coal #climateemergency
— Louise Rouse (@rouselouise) May 1, 2019
Fossil Free London, who co-organised the protests, argues that the Bank of England needs to set a good example to the rest of the financial world.
A spokesperson says:
“In signalling to the market that it is willing to invest in fossil fuels, the Bank is setting an example for other banks and investors to do the same. In giving its stamp of approval, the Bank of England is legitimising climate criminals.
“We are therefore demanding that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee blacklist bonds from fossil fuel companies, and we call on them to instead buy assets in fossil free sectors, such as renewable energy.”
Currently the Bank owns £10bn of debt issued by companies, as part of the stimulus measures taken after the 2016 Brexit vote. Nearly half of those bonds were issued by companies in high-carbon sectors, including the likes of BP and Shell (who posted solid profits this morning).
In theory, the BoE could boost the green economy by buying bonds from more environmentally conscious firms. This would lower their borrowing costs, and help the move towards greener technologies.
Activists: BoE complicit in climate crisis
Fran Boait, executive director of Positive Money, is urging the Bank of England to use its powers to help fight the climate crisis.
Speaking at this morning’s protests, she says:
“As regulator of our financial system, the central bank has the power to stamp out risky fossil fuel lending, using the same macroprudential tools it has used to clamp down on irresponsible mortgage lending since the financial crisis.”
“In choosing not to use these powers at its disposal, it is complicit in the climate crisis.”
Brilliant protest #GreenTheBoE #ClimateEmergencyNOW with @PositiveMoneyUK @FossilFree_UK we need more action now pic.twitter.com/JysMbtliym
— Fran Boait (@franboait) May 2, 2019
Today’s protests at the Bank of England come as the government’s official advisers argues that the UK must set a legally binding target of zero net carbon emissions by 2050.
The Committee on Climate Change says tough,and pricy action is needed. Moving to a low-carbon economy will cost tens of billions of pounds of investment every year, to drive the move to clean energy production.
But that’s a lot cheaper than the cost of inaction.
On a personal level, that would mean the end of petrol and diesel cars, ditching gas boilers, eating less meat, and taking rather fewer flights.
Here’s our news story on the CCC’s recommendation:
Climate activist Professor Mark Maslin argues that the UK needs to move faster:
Climate Change Committee declare UK must have a zero carbon target - but bad news is they suggest by 2050.
— Mark Maslin (@ProfMarkMaslin) May 2, 2019
Britain must adopt a 2030 zero-carbon target - giving us 10 years to enact win-win solutions reducing carbon, saving money and make Britain a better, cleaner place to live. pic.twitter.com/4apVwVvmck
Back outside the Bank of England....
Jessie from Fossil Free London is demanding the @bankofengland and mark carney put their money where their mouth is and get out of fossil fuels.
— Fossil Free London (@divestlondon) May 2, 2019
We need more than strong worlds. We need action. We need to #GreenTheBoE pic.twitter.com/uc9E6E9jz5
Another economic newsflash: the UK construction sector has returned to growth, but still looks weak.
Housebuilding activity rose in April, according to data firm Markit, lifting the Construction PMI index up to 50.5 from 49.7 (anything over 50 shows growth).
But commercial housebuilding, and big civil construction projects, shrunk again -- news that might deter the Bank of England from considering raising interest rates anytime soon.
On the economic front, eurozone factories have suffered their third contraction in a row, as the US-China trade war, Brexit and weak global growth all bite.
Eurozone manufacturing PMI of 47.9 in April, basically unchanged from the flash estimate. Germany & Italy both with sub-50 readings, with France bang on 50. Rough indicator of official stats. Markit citing protectionism, auto sector issues & Brexit as influences. pic.twitter.com/UChtWzjTQ5
— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) May 2, 2019
A petition has been set up to urge the Bank of England to raise its game on climate change.
It calls on Britain’s central bank to:
- Use your power to create money to decarbonise our economy, rather than strengthening the fossil fuel industry
- Introduce tougher regulation to actively penalise high-carbon lending while encouraging investment towards a low-carbon transition
You can sign it here.
Share Action, which campaigns for better corporate behaviour, is backing it:
Capital markets have huge potential to halt climate breakdown. The Bank of England has the power to unleash green investment on a massive scale. Sign the petition (https://t.co/gZ8rFRvfyr) and join @PositiveMoneyUK & @FossilFreeLondon on Thursday to #GreenTheBoE
— ShareAction (@ShareAction) May 2, 2019
The long-running Brexit crisis may distract the Bank of England from the climate change emergency.
Associate Press points out that the BoE’s new forecasts, due at noon, will be closely scrutinised.
The Bank of England is set to provide its first forecasts of what Britain’s Brexit delay will mean for the British economy.
The central bank is due Thursday to keep its main interest rate on hold at 0.75 percent following the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.
The focus will be what Governor Mark Carney says about the Brexit extension granted by the other 27 members of the European Union.
Britain was due to leave the EU on March 29 but Parliament twice rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal, pushing back the Brexit date to Oct. 31.
The central bank has consistently warned about the economic impact of Brexit uncertainty and of a deep recession if Britain were to leave the EU without a deal.
Here’s another video clip from outside the Bank:
“Bank of England, can’t you see, money must go #FossilFree!” #ChangeFinance pic.twitter.com/OkTev5a39S
— Robin Hood (@RobinHoodTaxUK) May 2, 2019
The Bank of England argues that it does take the climate change threat seriously already.
It has created a Climate Financial Risk Forum, in which the biggest companies in the City meet to discuss the financial risk presented by the issue.
After all, the best way to focus City minds on ANY issue is to warn it might cost them some money.
Last month, Carney and Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau issued a joint warning that the climate crisis could cause a slump in asset prices.
They pointed out:
The catastrophic effects of climate change are already visible around the world. From blistering heatwaves in North America to typhoons in south-east Asia and droughts in Africa and Australia, no country or community is immune. These events damage infrastructure and private property, negatively affect health, decrease productivity and destroy wealth.
And they are extremely costly: insured losses have risen five-fold in the past three decades. The enormous human and financial costs of climate change are having a devastating effect on our collective wellbeing.
But such talk is, of course, cheaper than actually taking serious steps to move to a low-carbon economy.
We’ve got a clear message for the @bankofengland and Mark Carney. It’s time stop funding climate breakdown and starting funding a green transitions. This is an emergency. Time to act like it.@peopleandplanet @FossilFree_UK @ukycc @Strike4Youth @ExtinctionR pic.twitter.com/8OPmfGh5WO
— Fossil Free London (@divestlondon) May 2, 2019
This video clip shows an activist chanting “This is an emergency... Bank of England go fossil free”.
#GreenTheBoE now! https://t.co/PULsbeyMNi
— Positive Money (@PositiveMoneyUK) May 2, 2019
Protests begin
The protests are underway outside the Bank of England, as activists hammer home their message at Bank staff, and commuters passing by.
[If you’re not familiar with London, the BoE is next to Bank Station, in the heart of the City of London]
Journalists should be arriving soon too, for the lock-in ahead of the interest rate decision at noon.
We're outside the Bank of England demanding Mark Carney put his mouth where his mouth is & #GreenTheBoE now! pic.twitter.com/AAhQqQo6HK
— Positive Money (@PositiveMoneyUK) May 2, 2019
Mark Carney go fossil free! Get carbon out of the BoE! @divestlondon @ExtinctionR @Strike4Youth #GreenTheBoE now! pic.twitter.com/nFTIND8UH9
— Positive Money (@PositiveMoneyUK) May 2, 2019
Updated
Digging fossil fuels out of the ground and burning them is obviously bad for the environment, pumping up carbon emissions, adding to global warming and undermining the Paris Agreement targets.
But it’s also extremely lucrative.
Just this morning, oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has posted profits of £4.1bn for the last three months, as it shrugs off weaker oil prices. That’s better than the City expected.
That, by my maths, is over £31,000 per minute (or more than the average UK annual wage).
Shareholders get the benefits, receiving £3bn of dividends in the last quarter. Shell’s shares have jumped 1.5% in early trading too.
Labour’s shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, is backing the protesters:
Right now, big finance is driving climate breakdown. The Bank of England has a key role to play in tackling climate change.The debate has started on how to use the power of the bank to unleash green investment. Join @PositiveMoneyUK & @FossilFreeLondon on Thursday to #GreenTheBoE
— John McDonnell MP (@johnmcdonnellMP) May 1, 2019
The climate change protesters should have a spring in their steps as they head to the Bank this morning.
Last night, the UK parliament approved a motion to declare an environment and climate emergency. This move follows the Extinction Rebellion protests in London this month, and the school strikes organised by pupils.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn summed up the mood in parliament, declaring:
“We pledge to work as closely as possible with countries that are serious about ending the climate catastrophe and make clear to Donald Trump that he cannot ignore international agreements and action on the climate crisis.”
After months of Brexit deadlock, it’s a relief to see MPs focusing on other major issues (although this motion won’t legally compel the government to act).
As Swedish teenage activist Greta Thunberg points out, protests can have a real impact - so over to you, Mark Carney.....
Activism works.
— Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) April 29, 2019
So act.
The Bank of England needs to blacklist high-carbon bonds and commit its huge buying power to ‘green QE’, writes Simon Youel of Positive Money.
In a Guardian column today, he explains:
In the three years since the Paris climate agreement, as the government has spoken (often empty words) about doing its part in lowering emissions, our financial sector has been pouring hundreds of billions of pounds into fossil-fuel projects, unleashing environmental havoc across the planet.
In its role as the regulator of the financial system, the Bank of England has the power to stamp out irresponsible fossil fuel lending – using the same tools it has used to clamp down on risky mortgage lending since the financial crisis. In choosing not to use these powers, it is complicit in the climate crisis.
What the protesters want
Today’s protests at Bank are organised by two campaign groups - Positive Money and Fossil Free London.
They want the Bank to take two specific steps to address the climate.
1) To ‘green’ its bond-buying quantitative easing programme, which currently buys UK government debt and some corporate bonds.
The campaigners say:
At the very least ruling out asset purchases in high-carbon sectors, if not actively favouring bonds which finance green projects.
2) The Bank should use its influence to support lending to environmentally sustainable groups, rathe than dirty industries.
They say:
The Bank of England should use all of the powers at its disposal to stop financial firms it regulates pouring more money into fossil fuels, while encouraging greater lending towards more sustainable ends. This approach, known as ‘credit guidance’, could include tools such as differential collateral requirements and targeted refinancing operations.
Climate change protests ahead of BoE rate decision
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
The Bank of England is centre-stage today as it sets interest rates for the first time since Brexit was delayed until the autumn.
With political uncertainty still rife, Bank policymakers will surely leave borrowing costs unchanged at 0.75% -- although hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee could lean towards a hike.
The Bank will also publish its latest assessment of the UK economy, via its Inflation Report. This will show whether the fog of Brexit uncertainty is hitting growth and the cost of living.
But... governor Mark Carney and colleagues will also be challenged on a bigger issue than interest rates - the climate emergency, and its threat to the planet and human life.
Climate change activists are heading to the Bank as I type, to demand bolder action from the central bank.
Tomorrow morning we and @divestlondon will be outside the Bank of England calling for greater action against banks pouring hundreds of billions of pounds into fossil fuels.
— Positive Money (@PositiveMoneyUK) May 1, 2019
To #TellTheTruth, we're facing a #ClimateEmergency, and it's time to #GreenTheBoEhttps://t.co/T8wY5ESZQd pic.twitter.com/yDA5mlCcqn
BoE staff arriving for work will be greeted with banners and signs calling on the Bank of England to ‘put your money where your mouth is’’. Once inside, they’ll be able to hear chants including “Green QE, not Shell BP / if you print money, go fossil free”.
Carney has embraced the issue in the past, warning bank bosses that they must play a key role in tackling global warming - rather than blithely lending to fossil fuel producers. But clearly he, and the Bank, are under pressure to do more.
Also coming up today
The latest monthly survey of British construction is expected to show a modest return to growth last month, following a contraction in March.
But the latest healthcheck on Europe’s factories may be bleaker. Economists expect the eurozone factory PMI (delayed by May Day yesterday) will keep languishing at just 47.8, which would signal a contraction.
The agenda
- 8.30am BST: Climate change protests outside the Bank of England
- 9am BST: Eurozone factory PMI for April
- 9.30am BST: UK construction PMI for April
- 12pm BST: Bank of England interest rate decision
- 12.30pm BST: BoE governor Mark Carney holds press conference
Updated