New residential supply in Greater Bangkok is expected to continue slowing this year as developers scale back launches in response to persistently weak housing demand and subdued consumer purchasing power.
According to the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), land allocation permits, a leading indicator of future low-rise residential launches, declined sharply in both project numbers and housing units during the first quarter of 2026.
Only 13 projects covering 2,645 units received land allocation permits during the quarter, down from 31 projects comprising 4,745 units a year earlier, declines of 58% in project numbers and 44% in units.
By province, Pathum Thani was the only market to record growth, with land allocation permits rising 17%. Bangkok, Samut Prakan and Samut Sakhon posted declines, while no permits were issued in Nonthaburi and Nakhon Pathom.
Residential construction permits, covering self-built houses, housing estates and condos, edged up 0.6% year-on-year to 11,174 units, comprising 8,541 low-rise houses, rising 28.4%, and 2,633 condo units, down 41%.
New residential launches in Greater Bangkok fell 31% year-on-year to 8,370 units in the first quarter, while total project value declined by 10.4% to 59.8 billion baht.
The sharpest contraction was recorded in the low-rise segment, with only 1,859 units worth 21.4 billion baht launched, down 55% in units and 51% in value.
Condo launches fell by 19% to 6,511 units, although project value rose by 63% to 38.4 billion baht.
Surachet Kongcheep, head of research at property consultancy Cushman & Wakefield Thailand, said developers are becoming increasingly selective when launching new condo projects this year, focusing on segments where they have strong confidence in demand.
"New condo launches recorded healthy sales during the first two months of the year, but market sentiment weakened sharply after the outbreak of war in March," he said.
"Buyer activity has slowed significantly and, even when purchases are made, many transactions fail to proceed because mortgage applications are rejected."
Kessara Thanyalakpark, managing director of SET-listed Sena Development, said the company will suspend new project launches in 2026 and 2027, citing weak market demand and inventory sufficient to support sales for five years.
"We have 98 projects, including completed inventory worth 10 billion baht and another 40 billion baht currently under development," she said. "We are prioritising financial strength by avoiding additional debt."
Supachoke Panchasarp, chief executive of SET-listed Asset Five Group, said the company will also refrain from launching new projects this year, turning its focus to selling existing inventory while gradually introducing new phases at current developments.
He said developers need to respond quickly to changing market conditions because residential development requires long investment cycles.
"For low-rise housing development, smaller projects typically take at least two years to complete, while large-scale ones can take up to a decade, making timely adjustments critical to managing market risks," Mr Supachoke said.
