The sophomore slump proved a very real phenomenon for Baker Mayfield. Cleveland’s quarterback wasn’t as sharp or composed in his second season at the helm for the Browns in 2019. It was a stark contrast to his record-setting rookie campaign in 2018, a great debut that landed Mayfield national endorsement deals and strong MVP odds.
That momentum is now cooled after both Mayfield and his supporting cast played at a lower level in his second year. Now Mayfield is on the spot to prove the hardships of his sophomore slump are a building block, a necessary setback on the way to bigger and better things.
There is ample historical precedent for precisely that happening for Mayfield. Several great quarterbacks suffered the sophomore slump after a superior rookie season and then rebounded nicely. The list goes back as far as Hall-of-Famer Fran Tarkenton.
Here are some recent quarterbacks who fell off from Year 1 to Year 2 and how they wound up performing in the longer-term once the sophomore slump was in the rearview mirror.
Sam Bradford
The No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft, Bradford wasn’t great as a rookie for the then-St. Louis Rams. Coming off a serious shoulder injury at Oklahoma, Bradford showed some promise in an uneven season with a Rams team that had won just three games in two seasons.
The second year was nothing short of abysmal. Bradford was brutal in the first ten games, ranking in the bottom two in every QB statistic when he got hurt and his season cut short. His steep decline in completion percentage and increased sack rate were similar to Mayfield’s; Bradford lost his ability to handle pressure capably.
| Record | Comp. % | TD/INT | QB Rating | |
| 1st year | 7-9 | 60.0 | 18/15 | 76.5 |
| 2nd year | 1-9 | 53.5 | 6/6 | 70.5 |
His third season saw Bradford rebound back nicely. He improved across the board, notably in yards per attempt and TD/INT ratio (21/13). Bradford finally developed something of a killer instinct, leading the Rams to four 4th-quarter comebacks after just one in his first two seasons and a 7-8-1 record.
That wound up being the last full 16-game season of Bradford’s injury-ravaged career.
Dak Prescott
Prescott burst onto the scene as the Dallas Cowboys starter as a fourth-round rookie in 2016. He was great right away, one of the most successful rookie quarterbacks of all-time.
Prescott fell off considerably in his second season. Most notable was the loss of downfield accuracy. He also threw more than three times as many INTs and one less total TD.
| Record | Comp. % | TD/INT | QB Rating | |
| 1st year | 13-3 | 67.8 | 23/4 | 104.9 |
| 2nd year | 9-7 | 62.9 | 22/13 | 86.6 |
In the two seasons since, Prescott hasn’t quite regained his rookie magic. But he’s been consistently better in 2018-2019 than he was in his second season. Prescott threw for a career-high 4,902 yards and 30 TDs in 2019, though mistakes around him cost Dallas dearly in an 8-8 season. There’s only so much credit — and blame — to put on any quarterback.
Philip Rivers
The longtime Chargers leader gets a bit of an asterisk. His first season as the starter was 2006, his third NFL season. Rivers was outstanding in taking over for Drew Brees in San Diego.
The asterisk continues into his second season. While Rivers wasn’t quite as successful in his second season, the team was still good enough to win 11 games and two playoff games on top of that.
| Record | Comp. % | TD/INT | QB Rating | |
| 1st year | 14-2 | 61.7 | 22/9 | 92.0 |
| 2nd year | 11-5 | 60.2 | 21/15 | 82.4 |
That 2007 remains Rivers’ worst statistically. He spiked up quickly across the board thereafter and remained one of the league’s best for over a decade. Rivers led the NFL in yards per attempt in each of the next three seasons. Given Rivers’ lengthy and odd career, the irony that his team made its deepest playoff run in his worst individual season is right on schedule.
Matt Ryan
Ryan’s sophomore slump in 2009 was a slight one. He regressed only a small amount in most metrics from his rookie campaign in 2008.
| Record | Comp. % | TD/INT | QB Rating | |
| 1st year | 11-5 | 61.1 | 16/11 | 87.7 |
| 2nd year | 9-5 | 58.3 | 22/14 | 80.9 |
What stands out about Ryan is that his second season remains his worst in every significant statistical metric (not counting wins) in his 12 years as the starting quarterback in Atlanta. Year 2 remains his lowest completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, interception rate and QB Rating.
He rallied quickly. Ryan was magnificent in 2010 in leading the resurgent Falcons to an NFC South title and made his first of four Pro Bowls.
