As The Great British Bake Off signs off its final BBC series with record viewing figures, Channel 4 executives will be plotting how to recoup their controversial £75m outlay on the UK’s most popular TV show.
A peak of almost 15 million viewers, more than half of the public who were watching TV, tuned in to see Candice Brown win the Bake Off crown in the final of the baking show phenomenon on Wednesday night.
Channel 4 will be buoyed by the rise in viewing, but must now begin the tricky task of selling the revamped format to sponsors and advertisers, shorn of presenters Mel Giedroyc and Sue Perkins and judge Mary Berry.
ITV’s director of television, Kevin Lygo, said recently that Channel 4 had paid for “baking powder and a tent” by failing to secure the full current star line-up in its deal to take the show off the BBC.
The broadcaster must rebuild what will inevitably be a new-look show around remaining judge Paul Hollywood. The comedians Jennifer Saunders, Dawn French and Richard Ayoade have all dismissed rumours linking them to the show. The popular 2015 winner Nadiya Hussain recently ended speculation that she might join by pledging to remain with the BBC.
However, the show will almost certainly be Channel 4’s biggest commercial brand, provided the transition from the BBC is handled adroity, and could rival the value of the once sprawling Big Brother franchise.
Channel 4 insiders point to the success of the Bake Off format in more than 20 countries, with a range of different presenters, and its advertiser-friendly audience profile of young and upmarket viewers, as reasons for optimism.
Channel 4 said: “The Great British Bake Off is a hugely successful format, both in the UK and around the world, and it will help Channel 4 cross-fund public service remit delivering programming like the 2020 Paralympics, British film, Channel 4 News and original comedy and drama.”
Bake Off will make its Channel 4 debut in 2018 unless a contractual issue between its maker Love Productions and the BBC is resolved. But it is understood that demand is such that bidding for the headline sponsorship slot could start at as much as £8m per year.
This would put Bake Off in the same price bracket as ITV’s The X Factor, the biggest show on commercial TV, which commands £10m a year in a wide-ranging sponsorship deal with TalkTalk.
The broadcaster is yet to approach advertisers about deals. But if Channel 4 could attract BBC levels of viewing, it would easily surpass The X Factor as the biggest drawcard on commercial TV.
Advertising industry sources believe that the hit show, which would command a premium of perhaps 40% on typical TV ad rates, could charge close to £200,000 for a 30-second ad, and as much as £280,000 for the final, if it was to attract BBC1 levels of 14 million viewers.
The final alone would fetch more than £4m and the main 10-hour series would rake in well in excess of £30m in TV ad revenues, on top of sponsorship money.
However, TV and media buying agency executives are predicting that on Channel 4 the show is likely to attract an audience significantly lower than BBC1, forecasting about 4 to 5 million.
“Channel 4 won’t be able to command a Bake Off audience comparable to the BBC but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a good decision,” said Phil Hall, chief commercial strategy officer at media buying agency MediaCom UK. “The halo effect on surrounding shows will be considerable and the extra hours of Bake-Off-related programming will be valuable to advertisers.”
Under the terms of the deal, Channel 4 will be able to broadcast up to 40 hours of Bake Off programming a year, with spin-off shows including professional and celebrity specials as well as the main series.
Based on the lower level of expected audience the main series might make more like £1.6m an episode and more in the range of £15m for the whole run. Thirty-second ad rates would come in at more like £100,000 for a typical episode and £200,000 for the final.
Big franchises are a rarity on commercial TV. Channel 4’s highest-rating show is Gogglebox, which attracts 4 million to 5 million viewers, and sources say that the broadcaster could make money from the franchise as a whole even if the main show managed only about 3 million viewers.
With another 30 hours of Bake-Off-related programming to exploit, the halo effect boosting audiences for programmes that follow Bake Off in the schedule and new advertisers potentially lured, Channel 4 will be confident it can more than recoup its outlay.
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