Bahrain’s Economic Development Board (EDB) revealed Sunday its forecast for the current year with 3.4 percent growth rate for its GDP and 4.3 percent in growth rates for the non-oil sector.
An acceleration in the pace of project implementation in the first quarter of 2018 is expected to underpin faster non-oil growth in Bahrain throughout the course of the year, EDB said.
The EDB’s estimates are positive and close to the growth rates recorded by the Bahraini economy at the end of 2017.
The forecast follows a strong performance in 2017, in which the Bahraini economy was the fastest-growing in the GCC with headline growth of 3.8 percent and 4.8 percent growth in the non-oil sector.
It is noteworthy that the Bahraini economy has witnessed a boost in the oil sector by announcing investments in the refining fields and by revealing the Bahrain field, which is estimated at about 80 billion barrels of crude oil and 20 trillion cubic feet of gas.
Meanwhile, the year over year rate of real expansion in the construction sector has accelerated markedly to 6.7 percent during the first three months of 2018.
"While growth in Q1 2018 reflected a one-off maintenance-related contraction in the oil sector, the broader economic data underpins our confidence in likely full-year growth,” Chief Economist at Bahrain Economic Development Board Dr. Jarmo Kotilaine said, commenting on the report.
"The stronger regional growth dynamics, a benign liquidity situation in the banking sector, the renewed expansion in the construction sector and implementation of a large infrastructure project pipeline suggest growth is likely to accelerate over the course of the year as a new phase of construction growth helps to support activity across the economy,” he further noted.
The forecast for strong growth across the year as a whole comes in spite of a weaker performance in the first three months of 2018.
Bahrain’s growth in Q1 2018 was negatively impacted by a one-off maintenance-related reduction in oil production, leading to a 15 percent contraction in the oil sector.
Non-oil sector growth in the quarter remained positive but slowed due to a combination of base effects after a period of accelerating growth and the lagging impact of anticipated unevenness in infrastructure project implementation in the second half of 2017.
