If the bookmakers are to be believed, three of this year’s four best actor nominees may as well watch the ceremony from their sofas: Benedict Cumberbatch, odds on across the board, is the overwhelming favourite. Yet there is a sneaking suspicion that the bookies might be too confident in boosting the ’Batch. This is a highly competitive field, full of recognisable names and eye-catching performances.
As such, it’s difficult to see Jason Watkins as anything other than the rank outsider here. Granted The Lost Honour Of Christopher Jefferies was a worthy and sharply told drama, and Watkins put in a hugely sympathetic shift as the lecturer wrongly accused of the murder of Joanna Yeates, but he probably lacks the name recognition of the other trio here. That said, Sean Harris won this award last year for the decidedly niche (but actually brilliant) Southcliffe, so anything’s possible.
More likely to carry home a big gold Bafta face is James Nesbitt, who put those formidable eyebrows to great use in gruelling child-abduction drama The Missing (BBC1). That show won both critical acclaim and big ratings – a cultural sweet spot for Bafta voters – and you wonder, should it lose out in a very competitive best serial drama field (where it goes up against Happy Valley, Line Of Duty and Peaky Blinders), whether they might consider giving Nesbitt something here as a consolation.
Marvellous was just that, and Toby Jones’s performance as Neil Baldwin, the man with learning difficulties whose career took in stints as a clown and Stoke City kit man, felt convincingly low-key and lived-in, rather than acclaim-courting. He’d be a worthy winner.
Then there’s Cumberbatch. Having failed to pick up this award on the three previous occasions he’s been nominated, he’s probably due a win. Yet Sherlock’s third series was arguably its weakest yet, and suffers the added impediment of not being terribly fresh in voters’ minds, having aired almost a year-and-a-half ago. So, while it would be no surprise to see Cumberbatch take home the award, I have a sneaking suspicion - not to mention a sneaking hope - that Jones might continue his losing streak.
Best supporting actor is the category most likely to be of interest to Utopia fans: Adeel Akhtar’s nomination here is the lone Bafta acknowledgement of the second series of Dennis Kelly’s distinctive drama, now sadly cancelled. Sentimentality, not to mention a fine performance as conflicted would-be mass-murderer Wilson Wilson, might tip the balance in Akhtar’s favour here, though given Bafta’s lack of interest in the series up to now (Television Craft awards wins aside), a win would be a real surprise.
Stephen Rea put in one of his terrifically measured turns in The Honourable Woman, so probably shouldn’t be discounted. That said, this looks to me to be a two-horse race between Ken Stott (for The Missing) and James Norton (for Happy Valley). Both played truly monstrous characters – Stott as a serial sex offender, Norton as a kidnapper and rapist – though shot them through with vulnerability and depth. I have feeling that Bafta voters will be more taken with Norton’s slightly more unvarnished performance; it’s difficult to believe that it’s the same actor who plays earnest, jazz-loving canon Sidney Chambers in Grantchester.
