Almost 80 billion baht in the annual budget is left over for a new government to spend this fiscal year, says a source at the Finance Ministry.
Some 77 billion baht remains for the next government to spend in fiscal 2019 ending on Sept 30. The outgoing government recently launched a 13.2-billion-baht economic stimulus package, said the source, who requested anonymity.
The stimulus package, launched with the aim of propping up the country's weakening economic momentum, includes spending of 13.2 billion baht on public welfare benefits for low-income earners, plus tax measures worth 8.62 billion.
Based on the Election Commission's schedule, the new government is expected to form in June.
Finance permanent secretary Prasong Poontaneat said the economic stimulus measures related to tax deductions will cost the government 8 billion baht in forgone revenue, but the package will help boost the country's GDP by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9% from an estimated 3.8%.
Growth of 3.9% would be satisfactory for the Finance Ministry, Mr Prasong said.
The outcome of stimulus measures, second-quarter economic growth and the new government's economic policies will be closely monitored, he said.
Whether the economic growth forecast of 3.8% is reachable this year hinges largely on exports, which the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) predicts will grow by 3.4%.
Risks to export growth include the lingering US-China trade spat and uncertainty over whether farm product prices will improve.
In the event that the economy backslides, the new government will have to unveil a fresh stimulus scheme, Mr Prasong said.
He voiced confidence that the government's revenue collection would be unaffected even if Thai GDP growth this year came in below 4%, as this assumption was made when the revenue target was set.
The government managed to garner 1.16 trillion baht from October to March, outpacing the target by 0.5% and up 7.6% from a year earlier.
FPO director-general Lavaron Sangsnit said the Finance Ministry's think tank is maintaining its 2019 economic growth forecast at 3.8%, while the private sector predicts a 3.5% rise.
The FPO needs to monitor whether exports can expand at 3.4% as projected, given a potential flare-up in the US-China trade dispute, Mr Lavaron said.
If the US decides to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 25% as threatened, Thailand's outbound shipments could take a hit and grow below forecast, he said. Moreover, the FPO wants to digest the outcome of the economic stimulus measures.
The Finance Ministry is confident that cash giveaways to welfare smartcard holders will be immediately spent and have a knock-on effect to the economic system.
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