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Insider UK
Business
Vicky Shaw & Peter A Walker

Average Scottish house price hits record high

In Scotland, the average house price hit a record high of £203,677 in July, according to the latest Halifax data.

However, the nation did see a slight slowdown in annual house price growth last month, to 9.6%, from 9.9% the previous month.

The average UK house price slipped back in July from a record high the previous month, marking the first month-on-month dip since June last year.

Following a year of exceptionally strong growth, house prices fell by 0.1% month on month in July, the bank stated. This represented a £365 month-on-month fall in cash terms, from June’s record average house price high of £293,586.

Across the UK, the annual rate of price growth slowed to 11.8%, down from 12.5% in June.

A typical UK property now costs £293,221.

Wales was at the top of Halifax’s table for annual house price inflation, with prices there increasing by 14.7%. In London, already record house prices were pushed even higher in July - with the average house price rising by £40,361 over the past year.

Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax, said: “It’s important to note that house prices remain more than £30,000 higher than this time last year.

“While we shouldn’t read too much into any single month, especially as the fall is only fractional, a slowdown in annual house price growth has been expected for some time.

“Leading indicators of the housing market have recently shown a softening of activity, while rising borrowing costs are adding to the squeeze on household budgets against a backdrop of exceptionally high house price-to-income ratios.

“That said, some of the drivers of the buoyant market we’ve seen over recent years - such as extra funds saved during the pandemic, fundamental changes in how people use their homes, and investment demand - still remain evident.

“The extremely short supply of homes for sale is also a significant long-term challenge but serves to underpin high property prices.“

Galley added: “Looking ahead, house prices are likely to come under more pressure as those market tailwinds fade further and the headwinds of rising interest rates and increased living costs take a firmer hold.

“Therefore a slowing of annual house price inflation still seems the most likely scenario.”

Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest, said: “Once a recession digs in, then the threat of job losses will raise its ugly head – damaging buyer confidence and dampening the market in the process.

“The real turning point could be the Bank of England’s decision yesterday to hike interest rates to 1.75%.”

The Bank of England raised the base rate by 0.50 percentage points on Thursday, taking it from 1.25% to 1.75%, marking the biggest single rate jump since 1995.

This will add around £50 per month to average tracker mortgage costs, based on average balances outstanding, according to calculations from trade association UK Finance.

In a grim warning on Thursday, the central bank said people face two years of tumbling household incomes, with inflation set to soar to more than 13% and the economy plunging into the longest recession since the financial crisis.

Its Monetary Policy Committee forecast inflation peaking at 13.3% in October; the highest for more than 42 years.

On a real basis, households’ post-tax incomes are set to fall 1.5% this year and 2.25% the next.

It would be the first time since records began in the 1960s that household incomes have fallen for two years in a row.

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