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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Vicky Shaw

Budget uncertainty blamed for 'bigger than usual' drop in November house prices

The average new seller asking price fell by 1.8 per cent or £6,589 month-on-month in November, according to a property website.

Rightmove, which released the figures, said this was a bigger-than-usual November drop, taking the average price tag on a home coming to market across Britain to £364,833.

Speculation about the contents of the Autumn Budget is fuelling uncertainty across much of the market, particularly at the upper end.

Homes priced at under £500,000 have been less affected by policy change rumours.

The average monthly price drop seen in November has been 1.1 per cent over the past decade and this month’s fall is the biggest for this time of year since 2012, Rightmove said.

Rightmove’s map shows asking price changes across Britain (Rightmove/PA)

More than a third (34 per cent) of homes available for sale have had an asking price reduction, with the average size of price reduction being seven per cent. Both figures are the highest since February 2024, the report said.

Colleen Babcock, a property expert at Rightmove, said: “The decade-high number of homes available on the market continues to restrict price growth, with many new sellers keen to avoid standing out by over-pricing compared with their competition.

“The Budget is a big distraction, and is later in the year than usual, with many would-be buyers waiting to see how their finances will be impacted.

“It appears that the usual lull we’d see around Christmas time has arrived early this year, and sellers who are keen to move are having to work especially hard to entice buyers with competitive pricing.”

Matt Smith, a mortgage expert at Rightmove, said: “Home movers can expect some small drops in average mortgage rates to continue over the next few weeks. The Budget has created a lot of uncertainty and has had a big build-up, so once the announcements are out the way, home movers can focus on planning with more confidence.”

Nick Leeming, chairman of estate agent Jackson-Stops, said: “For prime country houses, it has been a market of two halves in November so far. Whilst some have chosen to wait for clarity after the Budget – whatever news that may bring — others have accelerated their transaction timeframes.”

Bertie Russell, managing director at Russell Simpson in London, said: “We are starting to see more investors and pied-a-terre buyers looking, as well as a larger swathe of US buyers.”

Meanwhile, a report from property firm Hamptons found that over the 12 months to October, the average monthly cost of a newly-let home in Britain fell by 0.5 per cent to £1,399.

David Fell, lead analyst at Hamptons, said: “Despite rents falling annually for the third straight month, landlords are still managing to agree above inflation increases when it comes to contract renewals.

“Typically, these are reducing the gap that opened up over the pandemic between what tenants are currently paying, and what the property would achieve if it was re-let to a new tenant.”

Annual rental growth for tenants renewing their contracts in Britain was four per cent, with rents reaching a new peak of £1,310 per month, Hamptons said.

The Hamptons lettings index uses data from the Connells Group to track changes to the cost of renting and is based on achieved rather than advertised rents.

The figures were released as a separate report predicted that UK mortgage lending growth will weaken in 2026.

Following expected net growth of 3.2 per cent this year, UK mortgage lending is forecast to slow in 2026, with 2.8 per cent net growth, as stretched affordability and a squeeze on real incomes drive a dip in housing demand, according to the EY Item Club outlook for financial services.

A challenged global economy, and reduced real income growth are set to impact the banking sector in 2026, according to the report.

Write-off rates on UK mortgages are expected to have fallen annually in 2025, with the EY ITEM Club forecasting a marginal rise in 2026, as some homeowners on fixed-rate mortgages refinance onto deals with higher mortgage rates.

Total UK bank lending – across mortgages, business borrowing and consumer credit – is expected to slow from 3.8 per cent net growth this year to 3.3 per cent in 2026.

Lending is then expected to pick back up in 2027 and 2028 — at 3.7 per cent and 3.9 per cent net forecast growth respectively, if, as expected, interest rates fall, and consumer and corporate confidence improves.

Martina Keane, EY UK and Ireland financial services leader, said: “The UK economy made a strong start to 2025, but momentum is slowing and we are facing a challenging market.

“Ongoing global uncertainty and the prospect of further domestic tax rises in the upcoming Budget are likely to impact the financial services sector next year. However, our industry is resilient and adaptable, and our fundamentals remain solid. A dip in 2026 is likely to be temporary, and as uncertainty recedes, growth levels across most of the UK financial services sectors will improve over 2027 and 2028.”

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