those who assume this has been just another routine autumn of Test rugby have not been paying sufficient attention. France failing to beat Japan at home, Scotland sticking 53 points on Australia, Ireland hammering South Africa 38-3, Romania defeating Samoa … not only have there been some eye-catching results but it has proved a difficult November for defence coaches.
Scotland’s three home fixtures against Samoa, New Zealand and Australia produced 28 tries, 16 of them for the home side. The All Blacks, in scoring five tries to two in a frantic game in Cardiff, burst through the 500-point barrier for the calendar year, making them the first team ever to do so in consecutive years. The stylistic trend is universally faster, snappier, more dynamic: up-the-jumper dinosaurs are now formally extinct.
There is only one catch. To play the “new” Test rugby requires a palette of skills and a battery of pace not yet possessed by every team. Eddie Jones has been emphasising this reality for some time; why attempt to take on New Zealand at their own, broken-field game when his English players are more traditionally suited to taking them on at closer quarters? He has a point but rare nowadays is the victorious Test team which fails to score at least three tries.
In 19 Tests involving Six Nations sides this autumn – Wales still have South Africa to play outside the international window on Saturday – 14 of the 18 winning sides satisfied this modern requirement. The exceptions, aside from France’s 23-23 draw with Japan in the new U Arena in Paris which has placed their head coach, Guy Novès, under more pressure, were Italy’s win over Fiji, England’s dour effort against Argentina, Wales’s grind against Georgia and South Africa’s scrambled success over France. Bad weather, underfoot conditions and officiating can all have an impact but a pattern is emerging: sides without a serious cutting edge will be exposed sooner or later, regardless of their goal-kicking.
Under Gregor Townsend Scotland have embraced this onrushing reality more enthusiastically than anyone, cheerfully abandoning the doom-laden cellar they have inhabited for much of the professional era. Happily they appear to be relishing the challenges of Test rugby again and their results are improving accordingly.
In Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell and the sharp Huw Jones they have more than enough speed and guile to make all their 2018 Six Nations opponents slightly apprehensive.
With Ireland – 10 tries scored, five conceded – and England enjoying unbeaten autumns, it makes for a tantalising tournament. Why bother obsessing over New Zealand’s visit to Twickenham next autumn when Jones’s team are due at Murrayfield in February? The Calcutta Cup showdown is shaping up as a definitive test for both sides, with England’s optimum XV still not entirely established. England’s autumn return of 13 tries scored and three conceded, however, is even better than Scotland’s in terms of scoreboard dominance. With Ben Te’o, Jack Nowell and, perhaps, Manu Tuilagi lurking in the wings, there is definitely further improvement in them.
The next step in England’s development, even on the back of their outstanding record of 23 wins in the past 24 matches, is to show they can problem solve as expertly as the All Blacks did at the Principality Stadium on Saturday night. If ever there was a game which demonstrated why the latter remain the world’s leading team, this was unquestionably it.
New Zealand had barely 25% possession in the first half and were also being territorially challenged at the end of a long year with numerous key men out injured. Wales were guilty of not pressing home their advantage but the cussedness of the All Black defence and the razor-sharp finishing of Rieko Ioane and Waisake Naholo visibly delighted Steve Hansen, who still has Ben Smith, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Israel Dagg, Jordie Barrett and Julian Savea at his disposal.
Maybe it would have been different had Wales undergone their Damascene conversion to a more expansive gameplan a little earlier. With a playmaking 12 on the field they look significantly happier but badly need Liam Williams, Jonathan Davies and George North back to capitalise on the extra space being created. If they really want to go flat out and embrace Scotland’s all-court game, there may also be a need to look again at their long-standing selectorial preferences at 10 and 15.
In terms of these “new wave” requirements, Ireland are also ahead of them, with Jacob Stockdale and Joey Carbery among the autumn’s upwardly mobile performers. France’s results cannot possibly be this bad indefinitely and, in common with England, they possess several talented young forwards who, properly managed, could yet be a handful by 2019.
Bundle everything together and it was a quietly encouraging European autumn, if not totally groundbreaking. The overall tally in matches between Rugby Championship sides and their Six Nations counterparts sits at 7-5 to the south with one to play but there can be little doubt European rugby is on the ascent. Even Hansen believes the tactical broadening of northern horizons “is good for rugby”, though he might feel differently in 12 months’ time.
