The Chancellor and his Treasury mandarins are renowned for being overly optimistic about the savings the country will make through their brilliant policies.
Sadly for them, but luckily for us, the independent Office of Budget Responsibility goes through all of their clever wheezes and scores them on whether the anticipated savings are realistic, optimistic or just plain bull.
The OBR prefers to use more measured language – talking in terms of low, medium or high levels of uncertainty. We prefer our own categories:
The Apprenticeship levy
The biggest moneyspinner for the Exchequer will see big businesses pay extra National Insurance on their workforces to fund the UK wide drive to increase the numbers of apprentices.
The Exchequer says it will raise over five years: £11.64bn
OBR says: Optimistic
Stamp Duty Land Tax
Increase by 3% the rate of stamp duty on second homes.
The Exchequer says it will raise over five years: £4.09 bn
OBR says: Bull
Diesel levy on company cars
The extra tax paid by companies on diesel engines will be extended.
The Exchequer reckons it will raise over five years: £1.4bn
OBR says: Optimistic
Tax avoidance
Perhaps the most famously over-stated savings by Chancellors since the financial crisis, every Budget and mini-Budget comes up with tough sounding new clampdowns on rich tax avoiders. History shows they never come up with the promised savings.
The Exchequer reckons it will raise over five years: £1bn
OBR says: Bull
Moving people’s tax forms online
The taxman is going digital, making people update their details quarterly. Bizarrely, the Exchequer reckons fewer errors will be made, helping it raise more tax.
The Exchequer reckons it will raise over five years: £920m
OBR says: Bull
Tax credits
Scrapping plans to cut in-work benefits after uproar.
Exchequer says it will cost: £9bn
OBR says: Realistic
