A dry and warmer-than-average autumn has been forecast for nearly all of Australia, worrying farmers in southern states hoping for rain after a hot summer.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest outlook, released on Thursday, has predicted higher temperatures across the country – apart from eastern New South Wales and the upper Northern Territory.
Rainfall is also forecast to be lower than usual in much of central Queensland, the southern NT, north-west Victoria and parts of Western Australia. The bureau’s initial autumn report said these areas had a 70% chance of below-median rainfall.
Agata Imielska, a climatologist from the bureau, said the dry season was a result of high-pressure systems and the weakening of the La Niña system in the Pacific Ocean.
“It’s an interesting one in that we don’t have any strong influences from our major climate drivers, like El Niño or La Niña, or the Indian Ocean Dipole,” she said. “That dry influence is coming from the synoptic weather systems. We might see more high-pressure systems that tend to bring clearer, drier weather.”
According to Thursday’s forecast, north Queensland and the eastern NT had a 70% to 80% chance of above-average maximum temperatures, especially around the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Tasmania and southern Victoria could be similarly affected, with Hobart registering a 97% chance of higher minimum and maximum temperatures than average.
A second forecast will be released in two weeks’ time, and Imielska said the bureau hoped to provide concerned farmers with a clearer update.
“Autumn in the southern part of Australia is where a lot of our farmers are looking for our autumn break, for the rainfall to come through,” she said. “The dry signal from this first outlook isn’t looking that good. In two weeks’ time it will be important to keep abreast of what that system looks like.”
This year’s autumn follows an already warm summer, and a warm, dry autumn last year. On Tuesday the bureau declared a three-day severe to extreme heatwave in northern NSW and most of Queensland.
Imielska said the warm autumn could create health problems: “In general, warm and dry conditions are not good for bushfires. We know that heatwaves have the biggest impact on human health than any other weather-related hazard.”
