For years, the received wisdom in Australian politics has been that it would take the passing of the much-respected Queen Elizabeth II to make Australia a republic. And yet now that sad event has come to pass, polls show support for an Australian republic has barely changed.
This is why Australian republicans need to grapple with some hard truths and make some big decisions to have any chance of success, should the Albanese Labor government decide – as they have suggested they will – to call a republic referendum if they win a second term.
One of these hard truths is how comprehensively the 1999 republic referendum failed despite a fresh popular movement for change led by an energetic future prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull. The proposal wasn’t just defeated, it was crushed: a clear majority of 55% of Australians nationwide voted against it. As did all states and territories bar the ACT (though Victoria came close as well). This was a far cry from the majority of people in a majority of states needed to change the Australian constitution – a feat that has only been achieved eight times in 44 referedums throughout our history.
The second hard truth is that Australian republicans have hardly moved the dial in the two decades since. The Australian Republic Movement (ARM) continues to exist and advocate for the cause, but polling remains lukewarm and the ARM’s organised efforts – despite a small and gallant staff – could hardly be called a campaign. The ARM’s communications and media are patchy, events are little more than social gatherings for true believers, there is no effort to build a broad-based coalition across the community and there is no discernible effort to connect with Australians under 40, who have never been given a chance to vote to change their constitution.
The final hard truth is the Albanese government will call a referendum on the First Nations voice to parliament first, and – regardless of its success – there’s no guarantee a republic referendum will be called after that. While the prime minister has foreshadowed a republic referendum and appointed an assistant minister for the republic, governments, like generals, don’t like marching into battles they can’t win.
Australian republicans therefore have three big decisions to take before they’ll be ready for the prime minister to hand them the field marshal’s baton.
The first of these big decisions is obviously structural. What would be the model for an Australian head of state to replace the British monarchy? Many argue this issue lost republicans the 1999 referendum, with Australians rejecting the minimalist “politicians republic” where the federal parliament chose the president.
They’re probably right: subsequent polling confirmed Australians favour a directly elected president with strictly limited powers and chosen from a pool of candidates nominated by the parliaments of the land. The ARM’s recently adopted “Australian choice model”, modelled on the successful, century-old Irish presidency, was smart work and an important step in the right direction. Australian republicans now need to have the courage and unity to stay on this path to give themselves the best chance of success.
The second big decision is a principled one – but a big one. Will the ARM embrace this historic moment and back the referendum on a First Nations voice to parliament, taking the opportunity to engage republicans in Australia’s first referendum campaign in two decades, and a campaign with every chance of success?
After all, the republic and the voice are two pillars of the same vision: an independent country, reconciled with First Nations, colonial and migrant histories, proud of who we are and what we’ve achieved together, and united by a head of state we all have a say in choosing.
There are pragmatic factors here too: while the voice still has work to do in building a national campaign, polling suggests it already has support from a referendum – winning over a majority of Australians across the political spectrum. This echoes the 1967 referendum on the recognition of First Nations Australians, which was the most successful referendum in our history with more than 90% support.
But translating support into votes always takes people, money, organisation and work. The ARM’s 50,000 members and supporters would certainly help. Conversely, if the voice referendum fails, republicans can forget about their own referendum for another generation – it just wouldn’t make political sense for an Albanese government to roll the referendum dice again for one that looks even less certain of victory. In other words, the voice could use republicans; but republicans would be crazy not to support the voice.
The principled point is even more important: how could the ARM stand on the sidelines while fellow constitutional reformers fight for a more inclusive and representative country? And if the voice succeeds, how could the ARM look First Nations Australians in the eye and ask them to support a republic if the ARM refused to support them?
It’s unthinkable, yet this is precisely what the ARM is doing and what some republicans want it to keep doing. And it’s about as entitled as thinking an unelected monarch living in a palace 15,000 kilometres away should rule over Australia. The fact is most Australians, including most Coalition voters, support the voice and the ARM must join them.
The final big decision is about ensuring Australian republicans learn from and build real partnerships with Australia’s other great and successful movements for change, whether it be the trade union movement – Australia’s oldest, largest, most organised, and most successful progressive campaign – or more recent campaigns for marriage equality, climate action, integrity in politics and media diversity. This will be especially important for mobilisation on an issue that doesn’t touch most people’s day-to-day lives in the same way.
The key to all these campaigns has been hard work and smart, meaningful partnerships across politics, business, unions and the community. These partnerships are the difference between being a pressure group or a genuine movement for change. Between being noisy or being credible. Between winning or losing.
Making these big decisions will determine whether the ARM is ready to seize the most consequential moment it has seen in two decades, or whether it loses a once-in-a-generation opportunity and the friends we still have.
Thom Woodroofe and Tully Fletcher are both standing for the Australian Republic Movement’s national committee. They are progressive campaigners and policy advisers in their respective fields
