Top five
1. Andy Murray
Back for more and as hungry as ever, whatever he might say about the possibility of his knighthood quenching his thirst for success, the 29-year-old will be confident of claiming his first Australian Open title after the relentless winning run that lifted him to the top of the rankings for the first time in his career last year. Yet, despite holding off Novak Djokovic in London to finish 2016 as the world No1, the Wimbledon and Olympic champion has been a beaten finalist on five occasions in Melbourne. For all of Murray’s outstanding play in this tournament down the years, he is still carrying some mental baggage.
2. Novak Djokovic
This time last year, it was unthinkable that the Serb would not begin 2017 as the world No1. But after completing the career slam with victory in the French Open in June, a shock early defeat at Wimbledon shook Djokovic to the core. His mood darkened, his form nosedived, there were allusions to problems away from the court and Murray overtook him. But Djokovic, who parted company with Boris Becker at the end of the season, looked close to his best again during his recent victory against Murray in Doha and the defending champion’s history in Melbourne means he is the slight favourite to win a record seventh Australian Open title.
3. Milos Raonic
Previously written off as too one‑dimensional to threaten the top players, the Canadian has emerged as a serious threat after making huge strides in 2016. He pushed Murray hard despite losing their Australian Open semi-final in five sets and reached his first grand slam final when he fought back to defeat Roger Federer at Wimbledon. Murray was too strong in the final, but Raonic is clearly on the right path and his challenge is to play with more belief in the key moments. No longer so reliant on his monstrous serve, he has become more rounded, developing his game by attacking the net more aggressively. He is capable of going all the way.
4. Stan Wawrinka
One of the most unpredictable players on the tour, Wawrinka’s inconsistency is his greatest strength in a way. While there are times when it looks as though he has never picked up a racket before, he has the ability to blow his opponents away with sustained spells of blistering tennis when he explodes into life. The former champion won his third major when he beat Djokovic in the US Open final last year and, although he struggled with injuries and fatigue at the end of last season, the 31-year-old possesses an array of fearsome weapons that could carry him to his second Australian Open title.
5. Kei Nishikori
Skilful and elegant, the 27-year-old’s cerebral game makes him one of the most watchable players around. The Japanese star is a former US Open finalist who has beaten Murray and Djokovic at slam level and he knows this is the year when he has to push on. Nishikori has often cracked under the strain of keeping up with the grinding physicality at the top. A hip problem that threatens to undermine his chances in Melbourne will only fuel the argument that he is too brittle to make the most of his vast talent.
Three to watch
Roger Federer (No17 seed)
Strange though it seems to introduce the greatest player of all time as the world No17, it can be seen as a sign of the times that Federer finds himself in his lowest ranking since 2001. Yet it says much for Federer’s unwavering belief in his talent that the 35-year-old decided not to retire after missing the second half of last year with a knee injury and it should not be forgotten that he began 2016 as the world No3. He remains dangerous at the highest level. However, his low seeding means that he is likely to face a tough draw and that could hold him back given his lack of match practice.
Marin Cilic (No7 seed)
The powerful Croatian possesses a big game and a fine pedigree given that he is a former US Open champion. Yet while he qualified for the ATP World Tour Finals in November, it will be interesting to see how he has recovered from the disappointment of Croatia’s defeat to Argentina in the Davis Cup final. Victory was in sight for Croatia when Cilic led Juan Martín del Potro by two sets in the fourth rubber in Zagreb, only for the Argentinian to force a decider after a stirring 6-7, 2-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-3 victory. Argentina won the tie 3-2 and Cilic will do well to bounce back from that setback.
Dominic Thiem (No8 seed)
A debutant at the World Tour Finals after a breakthrough campaign, the exciting young Austrian’s immense promise shone brightly last year. His run to the semi-finals at Roland Garros was one to cherish, along with victories against Federer in Rome and Stuttgart. The 23-year-old still has plenty of room for improvement, however, after receiving a couple of harsh lessons at Wimbledon and the US Open. Bearing in mind how his form dipped at the end of 2016, he will be determined to make a statement of intent in Melbourne. He is yet to make it past the first week, though.
Others to watch
Granted, Rafael Nadal is not the most inspiring of picks as a dark horse given that he is the owner of 14 slams. Looking beyond Del Potro would have been difficult if he had been ruled out by injury again, while intrigue surrounds Nick Kyrgios, Gaël Monfils and Lucas Pouille, and maybe even Grigor Dimitrov if he discovers greater focus. But it will be fascinating to see how Nadal fares after the world No9’s return from injury. Time has taken its toll on the 30-year-old’s weary frame and he has not reached the last eight of a slam since the French Open in 2015, but he has spoken positively about his hopes of returning to his former heights.
