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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
National
Katharine Murphy

Malcolm Turnbull says Coalition will form majority Australian government – as it happened

Interactive
Live results for the Australian federal election.

Well, that's certainly a night

How do you end a night like tonight? You say well done Australia for giving the status quo a right good shake. I said when we kicked off the live coverage this evening disaffection was a major factor in this result, the only question was how the disaffection would ultimately manifest itself. We still don’t quite know and we won’t for several days.

Malcolm Turnbull addresses the party faithful at the Liberal function at the Sofitel hotel in Sydney
Malcolm Turnbull addresses the party faithful at the Liberal function at the Sofitel hotel in Sydney. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

What can be known right now is this. The prime minister is in trouble. The Coalition could well get over the line in its own right, or scrape together a governing coalition, but Malcolm Turnbull is damaged as of this evening. He embarked on this election seeking a mandate from the people and it’s not clear whether or not he’ll emerge with one.

The Coalition has lost at least 11 seats, including Bass, Braddon, Lindsay, Lyons, Macquarie, Eden-Monaro, Longman, Macarthur, Herbert, Burt and Solomon.

Labor has lost the Victorian seat of Chisholm to the Liberals.

Four independents are back in the parliament: Andrew Wilkie, Cathy McGowan, Bob Katter and a new NXT candidate, Rebekha Sharkie. Green Adam Bandt is back in Melbourne.

One Nation polled strongly. Pauline Hanson seems certain to be in the Senate.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor is tonight leading the Coalition on 50.06% to 49.94% on a two-party preferred basis. Bill Shorten has probably done enough to make a strong case to remain as leader of the ALP but, like everything, that remains to be seen.

So, as election nights go, this one was a doozy. It’s been beyond fantastic to have your company on this, my last night on Politics Live. Almost certainly. Like the election, one can’t have too many certainties. Perhaps I’ll be back. Perhaps I won’t. Most likely I won’t.

Thanks too to all the colleagues who pitched in with contributions: Lenore Taylor, Gabrielle Chan, Ben Raue, Helen Davidson, Michael Safi, Mel Davey, Gareth Hutchens and Paul Karp. To Mike Bowers, of course. And anyone I’ve forgotten.

And to you the readers. You are the heart of the project. Thanks for taking me around the world, into your lounge rooms and hot tubs, and dinners and the rest this evening. And thanks for being the best community going in national affairs. I will miss communicating with you in this form. It’s been a privilege.

Onwards, upwards.

PS: Go to bed, it’s late.

Updated

Can the Coalition get to a majority? It’s possible, certainly, but no one can make a definitive call on that tonight.

Updated

He ends on this note.

Malcolm Turnbull:

The election is over. Only the counting remains. And now is the time to unite in Australia’s aid, in Australia’s service, to ensure that we can have truly the very best years for our country ahead of us.

Malcolm Turnbull tries to end on a conciliatory note, with a pitch to unity.

I want to say to all Australians those that voted for us, those that voted for other parties or candidates, this is a time when we must come together. We must stick together. We face enormous challenges. We face, we face challenges in a rapidly evolving global economy that we do not anticipate, that will surprise us, the opportunities will surprise us, but so will the headwinds. We need have a common purpose. We need to have a commitment to the economic plan that sets us up for success. We have that plan and we will in government be seeking the support of all Australians, all members of the parliament, to the program that alone can deliver us success in the years ahead.

The prime minister thanks his family, ministers, his ministerial office and his campaign team. He also defends the decision to call a double-dissolution election. He says the objective of the double dissolution was not to clean out the Senate, the objective was to reassert the rule of law on building sites.

Malcolm Turnbull:

For those that say we shouldn’t have called a double-dissolution election are saying we should have just let the CFMEU with get on with doing what they like and never challenge them. And that is not in Australia’s interests. It’s not right. It’s weak. We have to stand up for what is right to restore the rule of law in an industry that employs over a million Australians.

Updated

'The Labor party has no capacity in this parliament to form a stable majority government'

Malcolm Turnbull:

So, my friends, I’m sure that as the results are refined and come in over the next few days with all of the counting, we will be able to form that majority government.

But, let me say this, let me say this without any fear of contradiction.

The Labor party has no capacity in this parliament to form a stable majority government. That is a fact.

Updated

'The circumstances of Australia cannot be changed by a lying campaign from the Labor party'

Malcolm Turnbull:

The circumstances of Australia cannot be changed by a lying campaign from the Labor party. The challenges, the fact that we live in times of rapid economic change, of enormous opportunity, enormous challenges, a time when we need to be innovative, when we need to be competitive, when we need to be able to seize those opportunities, those times are there.

No politician can give a speech, can write a policy, can send a message and change the reality of the circumstances in which we live and the policies that will enable us to meet those times with success. And they are the values of our party because they are the values of freedom, of business, of enterprise and entrepreneurship. And the alternative, the idea, the idea, the idea that the answer to Australia’s economic challenges, as Labor would have it, Labor with the second lowest primary vote in its history, but Labor would say that the answer is more debt, more deficit and higher taxes.

Seriously. Seriously.

Updated

'No doubt the police will investigate!'

The prime minister has forgotten he has a microphone. He is hollering his head off. Labor and the trade union movement ran a campaign full of lies, Malcolm Turnbull says. He says text messages were sent to voters today, allegedly from “Medicare”.

Malcolm Turnbull:

An extraordinary act of dishonesty. No doubt the police will investigate!

Updated

Malcolm Turnbull says he has every confidence the Coalition will form a majority government

The prime minister says the advice from his officials is the Coalition is on track for majority government. But Malcolm Turnbull says the result will not be known for days. Repeat that. Days.

Turnbull says it is just like 1998.

The prime minister is entering the Sofitel ballroom. The room livens up.

There hasn’t been much time for summaries, I will post one when we are on the other side of Malcolm Turnbull.

People have been asking me on Twitter which independents are back in the House of Representatives? Here’s the answer: Cathy McGowan, Andrew Wilkie, Bob Katter and a new NXT candidate in Mayo, Rebekha Sharkie.

Updated

I’ve just had a very quick glance at WA. Labor’s candidate Anne Aly has pulled ahead of the Liberal Luke Simpkins in Cowan. Just. Counting will continue in WA until about 2am, eastern time.

Updated

Happy Sunday everyone. We will hear from the prime minister very shortly.

A tale of two election evenings, in pictures. Bill Shorten pumped at Moonee Ponds.

Bill Shorten addresses party members at the Moonee Valley Racecourse in Melbourne
Bill Shorten addresses party members at the Moonee Valley Racecourse in Melbourne. Photograph: Tracey Nearmy/AAP

Meanwhile, back at the Sofitel.

Liberal party members react as they listen to Bill Shorten at the Sofitel hotel in Sydney
Liberal party members react as they listen to Bill Shorten at the Sofitel hotel in Sydney. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

Updated

Malcolm Turnbull is on his way now to the Soffitel.

Greens: an overview

It appears the Greens’ bid to pick up more seats in the house of reps to keep their re-elected Melbourne MP Adam Bandt company will be a slow burn. In the weeks leading up to the election, Richard Di Natale said his goal was to increase the party’s primary vote, retain Adam Bandt in the lower house and hold on to all 10 senators.

But the party was hopeful they were in with a chance in Batman, Wills, Melbourne Ports and the Liberal seat of Higgins in Victoria, Grayndler, Sydney and Richmond in NSW, and Fremantle in WA. By the end of the night only two of those were still in play. The marginal Labor seat of Melbourne Ports and the traditionally safe Labor seat of Batman in Victoria remain on a knife-edge.
Di Natale warned that by defying the Labor executive and preferencing Liberal Owen Guest ahead of the Greens, sitting Melbourne Ports member Michael Danby may help to deliver a Liberal government. “In Melbourne Ports where it’s a three-way contest, we won’t know the outcome yet,” Di Natale said, addressing supporters at the Forum Theatre in Melbourne. “But let me tell you something. At the moment we’re in a battle with the Labor party. And if we get over the Labor party – it’s currently line-ball – we’re a chance of knocking off the Liberals, who are now currently in a position to win that seat.

“The decisive factor there will be whether Labor’s Michael Danby and his preferences which are going to the Liberal party will elect the Liberal member. And let me tell you we’re hearing it’s going to be a very close election and I’ll just say to the people of Melbourne Ports; be careful. Because your member may have delivered government to the Coalition.”

In the event of a hung parliament, Di Natale also warned tough negotiations were ahead. “When the phone does ring – and it will ring – the issue of dangerous climate change, the treatment of innocent people seeking asylum in this country, they are things that will be front and centre in any negotiation,” he said.

Overall, the roughly 400 people who attended the Greens party in Melbourne ended the night buoyed by Di Natale’s speech, arms linked to form a circle and swaying as the DJ played the final song.

Updated

Hats off, #ausvotes stayers. Hats off.

Bill Shorten:

Friends, we are the party for all those who serve. All who strive. All who care for one another. All who make our country what it is.

Your futures and your opportunities – this will always be our mission.

Together there is nothing we can’t achieve.

Together we will build a better country for all Australians.

Updated

'Labor will not leave you behind. We will not let you down.'

Bill Shorten:

From every generation and in every part of our nation, in our cities and our regions, from the great grand country towns to new and growing suburbs, battlers and small business people, our farmers and our teachers, we are the party for first Australians and all those who have followed from every faith and every nation and every tradition.

We are the party for people who love each other and deserve the right to get married. We are, we are the party for women seeking equal opportunity at work. And apprentices looking for a start and older workers looking for a new start. We are the party that includes every citizen of the great Australian aspiration for the fair go all round.

And we are the party for the people whose voices all too often go unheard. And I in particular tonight, I say to all those Australians who feel marginalised and forgotten, alienated and excluded, and to all those Australians who feel that politics as usual simply doesn’t work for them: Labor will not leave you behind. We will not let you down.

Updated

Bill Shorten thanks his shadow cabinet and his team, his wife, Chloe, and family. He says it’s time for the parliament to get back to work.

Tonight we stand by our program. Our mandate.

Jobs with fair pay and penalty rates. Education and Gonski. Fibre NBN. Affordable housing and reform of negative gearing. Real action on climate change. And protecting our great national institution and one of the greatest Labor achievements – Medicare!

I promise Australians that the Labor party I lead will endeavour to find common ground with people of goodwill in the 45th parliament.

Updated

The Liberals have lost their mandate

Bill Shorten:

All of you, every single one of you, and thousands and thousands of our supporters and members right across this marvellous country, you should have great pride in what we have accomplished.

In the past three years we have united as a party. In the past eight weeks we have run a magnificent campaign. We have argued for our positive plans and, three years after the Liberals came to power in a landslide, they have lost their mandate.

And Mr Turnbull’s economic program, such as it was, has been rejected by the people of Australia. Whatever happens next week, Mr Turnbull will never be able to claim that the people of Australia have adopted his ideological agenda.

He will never again be able to promise the stability which he has completely failed to deliver tonight.

Updated

Bill Shorten addresses the party faithful in Moonee Ponds

Friends, we will not know the outcome of this election tonight. Indeed, we may not know it for some days to come. But there is one thing for sure – the Labor party is back!

That’s the opening gambit from Bill Shorten this evening.

Updated

Labor’s Brendan O’Connor is the warm-up act for Bill Shorten in Moonee Ponds.

Three years ago we were a divided party. We had just been beaten significantly in the polls. And people were talking about us being in the wilderness, bereft of policies and disunited. And I have to say in that short time we have seen cohesion, a unity of purpose and a focus on policies and that has been as a result of course of the collective efforts of the Labor movement, the Labor party, the federal parliamentary Labor party but in particular as a result of the leadership of Bill Shorten!

Updated

Speaking in Melbourne, the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, has warned of tough negotiations in the event the verdict is a hung parliament.

Richard Di Natale:

When the phone does ring - and it will ring - the issue dangerous climate change, the treatment of innocent people seeking asylum in this country, they are things that will be front and centre in any negotiation.

Updated

Alan Jones on the Seven Network chooses to address the prime minister through the television set. Come now Malcolm. Do it for your country. Go and address your reporters at the Sofitel.

Alan Jones:

You’ve got to go and do the gig!

Liberal James McGrath tells his colleagues on the Seven panel the prime minister is waiting for a report of the pre-poll votes before addressing supporters about the sum of the evening.

Both Labor and the Liberals think the pre-poll votes will likely break the government’s way.

Alan Jones think the prime minister ought to ... how can I say this? Harden up? Don’t wait for better news the radio host says. Off you go. Talk to your people.

Updated

The view from Darwin

Labor Senate candidate Malarndirri McCarthy says she expects to face racism if she gets to federal parliament.

McCarthy, who replaced Nova Peris on the ticket after the incumbent resigned during the campaign, is expected to win one of the two NT Senate spots, alongside CLP senator Nigel Scullion.

She told media at the Labor event in Darwin Peris’s time in Canberra had taught McCarthy, an Indigenous woman from Borroloola, to expect race-based targeting. She wouldn’t be drawn on whether she meant from the public, media, or parliament itself, but said racism was something she’d experienced before, and likely would again, and the country needed to deal with it. “I think we saw clearly from what happened in Nova Peris’s situation that racism does exist. I’ve certainly experienced it as a former Northern Territory minister and as a member, and just as an Indigenous woman in different stages throughout my life,” she said. “It is out there and it does exist. I think what we’ve got to look at is to flip it. We’ve got incredible support across this country and we’ve got to say no to racism.”

She pointed to recent incidents including the Adam Goodes saga, which she said was a “negatively defining moment” for Australia. McCarthy paid tribute to her predecessor, Peris, who she said had been under enormous pressure but had “done as terrific a job as she could in the three years she was there”.

Updated

Mike Bowers caught John Howard when he spoke to reporters briefly at Liberal HQ before.

John Howard arrives at the Liberal party function at the Sofitel in Sydney
John Howard arrives at the Liberal party function at the Sofitel in Sydney. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, is in the Labor venue at Moonee Ponds. Still no sign of the prime minister.

Updated

Thank you, says Bill Shorten

Thank you

Hang in there, Liberal party pollster, Mark Textor. Hang in there.

Hang in there Australia. Hang in there.

On the ABC, the treasurer, Scott Morrison, is holding the line and keeping morale high. He says the government will prevail at the end of the day.

Labor folks still don’t know which way this wave will break and acknowledge it is entirely possible the Coalition can get to 76 seats. Some in the opposition are fretting about the impact of postal votes in Queensland, among other variables. Labor’s performance in Victoria has also let down the side tonight.

Morrison is asked on the ABC whether the Coalition could have won this election if Tony Abbott was still the leader.

Scott Morrison:

Look, that is a matter we will never know.

Q: What do you think?

Scott Morrison:

I think it’s highly unlikely. I think the party room made its own judgment last September.

Q: You think Malcolm Turnbull has done better for you tonight than Tony Abbott would be able to?

Scott Morrison:

I think the party room made that judgment last year.

Updated

John Howard is addressing reporters over at Liberal HQ. He’s paying tribute to the Liberal MPs who have lost this evening. He won’t go further than that.

John Howard:

It is for the prime minister to speak on behalf of the Coalition in relation to the overall campaign.

Hi Belfast! I could use a bit of this myself.

Mike Bowers tells me he hears John Howard is due to arrive at the Turnbull function.

The deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, is on the ABC.

Q: Andrew Bolt is already saying that Turnbull should just resign now tonight. What’s your response to that?

Barnaby Joyce:

I disagree with that. I don’t think the Australian people want this revolving door of prime ministers. I don’t. I’ve had a couple of calls with Malcolm tonight and I’m looking forward to Malcolm being the PM of our nation.

Updated

A few more seats we are comfortable calling.

  • Brand WA ALP
  • Canning WA LIB
  • Fremantle WA ALP
  • Forrest WA LIB
  • Cowper NSW NAT
  • Curtin WA LIB

Things getting a bit loose out there in voter land. Keep it together folks.

The view over at Team Turnbull HQ

The feeling at the Liberal party headquarters is not good. Apprehensiveness. Rising concern. It was confident for a few hours but it’s flat now. Almost brittle.

The party faithful at the Liberal party function at the Sofitel in Sydney
The party faithful at the Liberal party function at the Sofitel in Sydney. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

There aren’t many people here either. Anthony Pratt, the son of cardboard mogul Richard Pratt, has been wandering around saying hello to some people.

Nicole Chant, one of Liberal CHQ’s senior media advisers, has been hobnobbing with the crowd but there’s a serious lack of energy in the room.

The people who are here are gathered around three large TVs – showing ABC, Channel Seven and Channel Nine coverage – without the sound on.

Some are wondering if Malcolm Turnbull will even turn up tonight.

Updated

Seems appropriate to share now.

The Bolter blows a gasket: Andrew hath spoken

What was I saying before about Malcolm Turnbull being in trouble?

Andrew Bolt has been moved by the unfortunate trajectory of the evening to stamp his foot. And pound his keyboard while stamping his foot. He’s published a letter to Malcolm Turnbull. Dear Malcolm, you are toast.

Andrew Bolt:

You have been a disaster. You betrayed Tony Abbott and then led the party to humiliation, stripped of both values and honour.

Resign.

'I don't need to listen to anything'

Pauline Hanson is heading towards a return to the federal parliament 20 years after winning the lower-house seat of Oxley. One Nation looks to have 5.4% of the Senate votes in Queensland, enough for at least one seat in the state. She’s just done the rounds of the commercial broadcasters, scoffing when asked what she learned during her 18 years – including eight failed election attempts – in the political wilderness. “Hold on a minute. Has the Liberal, Labor or Greens learned anything? Start listening to grassroots Australians?” she said. “I don’t need to listen to anything. I know what the people are thinking and how they are feeling.” She’s listed infrastructure, reigning in the debt and “pulling the country together” as her key priorities.

Hanson is also determined to avoid the infighting that destroyed her party the first time around. “I’ve got 20 years experience now in politics, I’m not the new kid in the bock as I was back then,” she says. “I am so determined to make this work … The David Oldfields are not there any longer. People infiltrated my party in the first place. And the Liberal, Labor and National parties destroyed it. It’s not going to happen this time, I won’t allow it to happen. Total control.”

Updated

By the numbers

Let’s zoom out to the whole country now. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor is currently leading with 50.7%. It’s worth noting that Western Australia vote totals are still quite small and they should still favour the Liberal party, so this will almost certainly drop.

Labor’s primary vote is at 35.6%, which is considered a swing of 1.4% by the AEC. The Greens vote is at about 10%, which is a swing of 1.5%. This is an improvement on the 2013 vote, but not as high as their 2010 result.

Overall the Coalition is down about 3.5%, with their primary vote around 41%.

The Nick Xenophon Team is just under 2% (with 20.8% in South Australia).

Some minor parties are polling strongly in some states:

  • The Christian Democratic party is just under 4% in NSW
  • One Nation is on 5.4% in Queensland
  • Family First is on 4% in Queensland
  • Family First is on 3.8% in South Australia

Updated

The view from the Shorten party in Melbourne

Labor’s party got off to a pretty good start of the night with swings in Tasmania that see Bass as a projected win and Lyons and Braddon as probable gains too. The red-shirted crowds gave big cheers for dethroning Wyatt Roy in Longman, and Jamie Briggs’s loss in Mayo to the Nick Xenophon Team.

But narrow defeats in Queensland marginals and results in Victoria have taken the wind out of their sails. The Liberals are set to hold all Labor’s targeted seats in Victoria (La Trobe, Corangamite and Deakin). The Liberals are currently narrowly ahead in Chisholm, which would be a rare Liberal gain from the ALP and a major blow to Labor forming government.

Labor is hopeful of picking up seats in WA and their scrutineers detecting a huge swing in the new seat of Burt, which, if replicated across the state, could see it pick up Cowan and Hasluck. The feeling in the room now is that Labor has done well but the Liberal seat count is creeping up and the best result is a hung parliament. Some felt earlier in the night they were on the verge of an enormous upset.

Updated

The view from Darwin

After a short wait in the car park for media, ALP candidate Luke Gosling walked into the Pint Club to cheers of “Gosling Gosling Gosling”, as his win looked more and more certain. Accompanied by his wife and young daughter, Gosling hugged NT Labor colleagues and staffers. He thanked his supporters and the union movement of the Top End for their help during the campaign – one of the nation’s closest.

With more than half the votes counted, Gosling had drawn an 8.8% swing. In her last interview, less than an hour before, Griggs asked Territorians not to give up on her, citing thousands of pre-poll ballot papers yet to come in for the seat of less than 70,000 voters. The result – yet to be finalised – was “indicative of a want in the electorate for people who will stand up for Territorians,” said Gosling.

Updated

'Suffice to say a change was made for better or worse and we move on.'

The Tasmanian Liberal senator Eric Abetz is telling Sky News it is disappointing the Liberals have had a swing against them in the apple isle. He says if the Coalition is returned to government he will be taking up the issue of the government’s superannuation policy, which he says has hurt the Coalition. The base is cranky about the budget changes.

Let’s just state the obvious here for a moment.

Malcolm Turnbull, whatever the ultimate result tonight, is in all sorts of bother now. We don’t know who is going to win the election yet but we know enough to know the prime minister’s internal enemies have been given a hefty dose of the smelling salts. The conservatives are emboldened by the events of the evening.

Abetz is asked about the impact of the leadership change to Malcolm Turnbull. Abetz gives this delightful veiled dig.

Look I’m not going to speculate on that. Suffice to say a change was made for better or worse and we move on.

Now, we must rally, Abetz thinks. Rally to save the Coalition government.

Updated

The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, is triumphantly addressing supporters in Melbourne now. He’s giving a roll call of the pro-Green swings recorded in Victorian lower-house seats tonight. It’s a competition between all three parties for the seat of Melbourne Ports, Greens candidate Stephanie Hodgins-May says. The Greens need 800 votes to pull ahead of Labor and there are three booths and most of the pre-polls left to count.

Updated

Hello #ausvotes: It's 1996 calling

Pauline Hanson thinks she might get two seats in the Senate for Queensland alone. She says in the Queensland seat of Hinkler, her candidate is polling 20% of the result with 30% of the vote counted.

But she remains cautious. “I’m not going to get myself over the line until I know what the figures are.” Malcolm Roberts is on her ticket as No 2. Roberts is a mine manager and Hanson says he could tell the environment minister, Greg Hunt, a thing or two. “This man has all the answers to this climate change BS we are being fed. The whole fact is Greg Hunt will not even debate him. No politician has got the empirical evidence to do with this climate change.” The New South Wales Labor senator Sam Dastyari congratulates Hanson before inviting her out for halal snack pack in Sydney. Hanson says that is not going to happen, quoting a figure of 98% of Australians who do not want halal certification. Not sure of the source.

Hello 1996.

Updated

Back to the curious sledge against Liberal party pollster Mark Textor by the Liberal senator Cory Bernardi, readers have come to my rescue.

Textor told The Australian in September 2015 conservatives don’t matter. “The qualitative evidence is they don’t matter,’’ Textor said. “The sum of a more centrist approach outweighs any alleged marginal loss of so-called base voters.’’

This observation was picked up in a Quadrant piece.

These power brokers decided that the loss by a Turnbull-led Liberal Party of disgruntled conservatives outraged by its wanton progressivism will be outweighed by its appeal as a more moderate party to swinging voters. As Liberal pollster Mark Textor contemptuously observed about conservative voters: “The qualitative evidence is they don’t matter,’’ Mr Textor said. “The sum of a more centrist approach outweighs any alleged marginal loss of so-called base voters. But what if he’s wrong and a significant proportion of conservative voters turn against the Liberals? One option for them is to vote informal, leaving the Liberals with a significantly reduced vote that would deliver power into the hands of the ALP, given the expected flow of preferences. Turnbull and advisors like Textor might be calculating that such voters (being conservative and sensible) will refrain from taking such a step. However, Turnbull has offered them nothing, as he and his henchmen seem to delight in emphasising. Consequently, given the way things are going, what do they have to lose by voting informal?

Thank you to Mike Dwyer via twitter.

Go west

Vote numbers are small, but Labor is well on track to gain the notional Liberal seat of Burt in Western Australia. At the moment the Liberals look most likely to retain all of their other seats.

No clear result tonight: Antony Green

ABC election analyst Antony Green says we are not going to know the result of the election tonight.

At the moment on the numbers I’m seeing it’s not clear. I don’t think we’ll have a clearer picture by the end of tonight.

Swings and roundabouts as we cast our eyes west

It’s about time to start looking at WA data but before we do here’s the summary of the rest of the country:

  • ALP - 55
  • LNP - 51
  • GRN - 1
  • IND - 3
  • Too close to call - 24

And if you break those seats based on who is leading you get:

  • ALP - 64
  • LNP - 62
  • NXT - 1
  • GRN - 1
  • IND - 3
  • Extremely close - 3 (Forde, Lindsay, Petrie)

If the Liberal party can hold their 12 seats in the west, they would still be on the verge of losing their majority.

Updated

On the Seven Network, Pauline Hanson is fighting with the former Victorian premier Jeff Kennett. Because it’s that kind of night.

This is too cryptic for me. Any suggestions about what Cory Bernardi means by this dig at the Liberal party’s pollster Mark Textor?

This is my latest back of the envelope tally of seats.

  • ALP hold - 49
  • ALP gain from the LNP - 5
  • GRN hold - 1
  • IND hold - 3
  • LNP hold - 50
  • LNP gain off IND - 1
  • Too early to call - all 16 WA seats
  • Too close to call - 25 seats

Updated

Tony Abbott is speaking to his electors in Warringah. He’s declaring victory in his seat, with a 3% negative swing.

Abbott looks quite cheerful. Can anyone guess why?

Tony Abbott:

It’s not surprising you lose a few votes here and a few votes there.

Abbott is, however, calling tonight for the Coalition.

There’ll be a strong Coalition government in Canberra that can work with a great Coalition government in Macquarie Street to give this area what it needs to prosper and to go ahead.

Mediscare recriminations

As the results come in Liberal anger at the apparent effectiveness of Labor’s campaign on Medicare has mounted. “It’s a lie ... Labor has been boasting about this monstrous lie at the heart of its campaign,” said the deputy Liberal leader, Julie Bishop.

The treasurer, Scott Morrison, on the ABC’s election panel, was also fuming. “I don’t know what is more audacious, the size of the lie that has been told or the boasting on the back of it,” he said. “We know they told the lie, they got exposed on the lie yet they continued to back it in with the phone calls and the mail and the little cards and the whispers at the booths and all of these sorts of things. This was the Labor party’s campaign. It wasn’t a campaign about growing the economy, it was a campaign about fright.”

Liberal candidates facing unexpectedly close battles were also blaming the Medicare “scare”. Karen McNamara, who seems like to lose the NSW seat of Dobell, said she had done all she could in the seat but her chances had been harmed by “the Mediscare and the lies”. Eric Hutchinson, set to lose the Tasmanian seat of Lyons, blamed the swing against him was due to “Medicare ... it’s been everywhere.”

Updated

Let Mike Bowers take us to the Liberal party’s celebration set up over at the Sofitel in Sydney. Veteran advancer Vince Woolcock does a spot of flag fluffing.

The flags get adjusted at the Liberal party function at the Sofitel in Sydney
The flags get adjusted at the Liberal party function at the Sofitel in Sydney. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Look at the ladies, the faces. Nailbiter of a night.

The Liberal party faithful watch the results at their function at the Sofitel in Sydney
The Liberal party faithful watch the results at their function at the Sofitel in Sydney. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

Chief bedwetter

What did Murph say? Freaking out?

Recriminations are already beginning over the leadership change to Malcolm Turnbull. On Channel Seven, Alan Jones accuses the Liberal senator and key Turnbull supporter James McGrath – who is on the panel – of being “chief bedwetter” for getting rid of Tony Abbott. McGrath retorts that no one should think that Alan Jones is a friend of the Liberal National party, given he campaigned against Campbell Newman’s state government. That government fell after just one term.

McGrath gets quite heated, telling Jones: “I don’t care what you think!”

Updated

Meanwhile, elsewhere, in our One Nation

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation looks to be major beneficiary of voter dissatisfaction with the major parties, currently polling more than 5% in lower-house Queensland seats, with Family First trailing close behind at 4%.

Ben Raue notes the results so far are largely from rural booths but should those results translate into the Senate both parties will pick up seats.

One Nation is doing best in Wright, south-east Queensland, where Ron Smith has won about 20% of the primary vote with 47% counted. The LNP’s Scott Buchholz is expected to win the seat comfortably.

In another safe LNP seat, Wide Bay, One Nation’s Elise Anne Cottam has won about 17% of voters’ first preferences.

One Nation spokesman James Ashby nominated Hinkler as a possible win. Candidate Damian Huxham is currently winning a 20% share of the vote there, with more than half the vote counted, but looks unlikely to catch the LNP’s Keith Pitt.

Updated

Gritted teeth on every television I can see

If you look at how the Liberals are acting on the various TV panels right now, it’s clear. The Coalition is ... how can I put this politely ... freaking out.

Updated

Here’s our current roll call of the seats.

  • Adelaide ALP
  • Lingiari ALP
  • Makin ALP
  • Dawson LNP
  • Melbourne GRN
  • Lyons ALP
  • Braddon ALP
  • Bass ALP
  • Kingston ALP
  • Isaacs ALP
  • Hinkler LNP
  • Greenway ALP
  • Grayndler ALP
  • Kooyong LIB
  • Lalor ALP
  • Leichhardt LNP
  • Lilley ALP
  • Maranoa LNP
  • Maribyrnong ALP
  • McEwen ALP
  • McMillan LIB
  • McPherson LNP
  • Menzies LIB
  • Mitchell LIB
  • Moncrieff LNP
  • Oxley ALP
  • Parramatta ALP
  • Rankin ALP
  • Richmond ALP
  • Ryan LNP
  • Scullin ALP
  • Shortland ALP
  • Sydney ALP
  • Warringah LIB
  • Wannon LIB
  • Whitlam ALP
  • Wide Bay LNP
  • North Sydney LIB
  • Newcastle ALP
  • Paterson ALP
  • Wright LNP
  • Kingsford Smith ALP

A hung parliament is at least possible

Labor seems to have won Bass, Braddon and Lyons in Tasmania, Solomon in the Northern Territory, Macquarie, Macarthur, Eden-Monaro and possibly Gilmore, Dobell, Paterson and Page in New South Wales and possibly Herbert, Longman and Forde in Queensland.

They are also hopeful about Burt in Western Australia. The Nick Xenophon candidate appears likely to pick up Mayo in South Australia.

That means a hung parliament is at least possible.

Updated

Hold on to your hats folks

This is what Labor people are telling me right now, and the ABC’s veteran political commentator is prepared to make a punt.

Barrie Cassidy:

It’s more likely than not now that the country will have a hung parliament.

  • Corrected from first post. Apologies, I had a brain snap and attributed this quote initially to Antony Green, the ABC’s election analyst.

Updated

Hi Cyprus.

The Northern Territory seat of Solomon is recording a 10% swing to Labor. That looks like a Labor gain for Luke Gosling.

This is my list of close seats, as things currently stand:

  • Page
  • Lindsay
  • Longman
  • Petrie
  • Cowper
  • Mayo
  • Batman
  • Wills
  • Macquarie

My timeline is chock full of your celebrations. All round the world. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. You guys rock. I’m going to miss daily interactions with this community so much my heart hurts.

At the moment the Victorian independent Cathy McGowan is looking comfortably ahead. The count is recording a 4.4% positive swing.

A quick whip around. The outer-Brisbane seat of Petrie is currently very close. The Labor-held seat of Parramatta, where Malcolm Turnbull was campaigning today, has seen a large swing towards Labor. The Nationals are currently leading on primary votes in the Liberal-held seat of Murray, which they are both contesting on the retirement of the sitting MP. There has been a big swing to the Greens in Higgins but we’ll have to wait for a Liberal-v-Greens preference count.

Updated

The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, has just been interviewed at the Forum in Melbourne and is saying Batman looks like the seat the Greens are most likely to win. He’s also hopeful in Melbourne Ports, Wills and Higgins, saying the race is far from over in those camps. “We’ve got greats swings heading our way. The question is, will it be enough to get us over the line? Batman is looking very good. My scrutineers are telling us we’ve got our noses in front ... When the Liberal party and the Labor party preference each other, we have an extra challenge. I wouldn’t count us out in Higgins just yet but at this stage Batman is the seat we’re most likely to pick up and win.”

Updated

Hello Athens!

You’ll see it on our results widget but our running total at the moment is: Coalition 20 Labor 19. It will be a long night folks.

'You would say at this date the government has its nose in front.'

ABC election analyst Antony Green with a helicopter view.

We are in for a long night.

The picture is still pointing to a swing against the government but there are a lot of seats. I have 58 and 56 across the bottom of the screen, and it is not budging above 60. I am not prepared to give away several seats.

It is peculiar. It looks like the government is on track, especially because we still have Western Australia to come in, but at this stage we’re not calling it, but some seats are falling, but in a lot the swing is not enough to change government.

You would say at this date the government has its nose in front.

Updated

Here's our next batch of seats we are prepared to call

Here’s our next batch of seats we are prepared to call.

  • Blair - ALP
  • Casey - LIB
  • Denison - IND
  • Canberra - ALP
  • Macarthur - ALP
  • Paterson - ALP

So calling Denison means Andrew Wilkie is back in the parliament.

Things are looking ugly for Tony Windsor in New England, although we want to wait a little longer before calling the seat for Barnaby Joyce. Rob Oakeshott is second on primary votes in Cowper but we don’t have a two-candidate preferred count between him and Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. At the moment Hartsuyker’s primary vote looks pretty healthy.

The independent candidate James Mathison is currently coming fourth in Warringah and looks unlikely to make an impact. The Greens are doing pretty well in Batman and Wills, and could well win both seats.

Updated

Meanwhile, the view in Coalition HQ.

To Brisbane ... and Batman

Labor is suffering a potentially dangerous swing in some early Griffith booths in inner-south Brisbane, where Terri Butler is running for a second term after replacing Kevin Rudd in 2014. My view is David Feeney is also in trouble against the Greens’ Alex Bhathal in the inner-Melbourne seat of Batman.

(Murph, breaking in to Ben briefly: me too.)

Updated

Despite reports from the ABC’s Sabra Lane that Labor insiders are saying they think the Victorian seat of Batman’s gone to the Greens, a Greens insider has just told me the party “is not ready to call it yet”. However, he does say figures are promising for the Greens from “the middle of the seat”.

While it’s still early, some Greens sources are saying they see an 11% swing in Higgins, held by the Liberal’s Kelly O’Dwyer and being contested by Greens Jason Ball.

Welcome Pauline. Yes, really.

I’m certain she’s in.

Liberal James McGrath is making the call on the Seven Network at the moment. He’s speaking about Pauline Hanson. McGrath (who knows Queensland extremely well) says she is in the senate.

The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green summarises the state of play thusly.

At this stage, the result is not clear. We’re seeing a swing which would not defeat the government but we’re also seeing Labor winning seats. At the moment, it’s sort of leaning towards the government being re-elected. Certainly I want to see some of these seats a bit more preference counted.

(I’m with him. It’s patchy but what a night. And the early vote for the NXT in South Australia is looking strong. The last figures I saw in the Liberal held seat of Mayo had the NXT candidate ahead of Liberal Jamie Briggs. And the Greens are performing strongly in the Victorian seat of Batman. Labor’s David Feeney looks to be in trouble there. But, I stress, early results.)

Updated

On Sky News, Labor’s Linda Burney is claiming victory in the NSW seat of Barton. On the ABC, Antony Green strongly suspects Labor can mark three gains in Tasmania.

Hello expats! Thanks for tuning in.

How the wave is breaking in the various seats

Labor is looking good to win Bass, Braddon and Lyons (Tasmanian seats) with possible big swings so far. There are also big swings to Labor in the Sydney marginals of Macarthur and Macquarie but there are swings to the Liberals in the inner-Sydney seats of Reid and Banks.

Labor is doing well so far in the Brisbane seat of Forde but less well in Petrie, and Brisbane looks like a standstill. Despite the problems with the CFA, Labor appears to have gained a big swing in their seat of McEwen. The swing to Labor is much more modest in Corangamite.

It’s a mixed picture, in other words.

Updated

Who is not welcome at Bill Shorten's party? Daniel Andrews

Sky news has just reported that the Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, will not attend Bill Shorten’s election night party because of the Country Fire Authority issue. The United Firefighters Union’s Victorian secretary, Peter Marshall, has tried to head off the perception the industrial dispute in general and his union in particular have hurt Labor’s chances. Marshall told Guardian Australia the UFU had a warm reception as about 600 members handed out how-to-votes in Victorian seats including Deakin, La Trobe, Dunkley, Isaacs, Corangamite and Menzies. “There was very little pushback. There were very few volunteers. The public was really warm. People supported the firefighters and condemned the division [between professional and volunteer firefighters] or they were confused by the issue and thought it was a state issue ... We had a major presence in all the polling booths at major marginal seats. There were hardly any CFA volunteers, just a lot of Liberals beating up the controversy.”

Updated

Back to you guys and your festivities. All kinds of marvellous.

Guardian Australia's first seats called for election night

Our Guardian Australia numbers man Ben Raue is prepared to call the following seats even though there’s only a small proportion of the vote counted.

  • Calare - NAT
  • Farrer - LIB
  • Groom - LNP
  • Hume - LIB
  • Hunter - ALP
  • Lyne - NAT
  • Mackellar - LIB
  • Parkes - NAT
  • Riverina - NAT
  • Berowra - LIB
  • Cunningham - ALP

(These are all safe seats for the respective parties, so safe calls.)

Back to Antony Green: things looking good for Labor’s Mike Kelly in Eden-Monaro on about 4% of the vote counted. That seat is currently held by Liberal Peter Hendy. Labor expects to win that seat.

Liberal Sarah Henderson is looking good in Corangamite in Victoria. Again, low numbers of votes counted. The CFA dispute has belted Labor around in Victoria. The objective for Labor in Victoria has become don’t lose seats – they are not expecting any gains tonight.

Updated

You are delivering beyond my wildest dreams quite frankly. The treasurer, Scott Morrison, is on the ABC’s election panel this evening.

The early results are consistent with a late swing to Labor but there results are not yet meaningful. I stress that. Not meaningful. Not yet.

Fires in the southern highlands ...

and Black Books, with Politics Live as first screen.

It’s going off.

Updated

The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green has early results from the NSW seat of Cowper, where Rob Oakeshott is attempting to stage a comeback. Very early figures I stress, possibly completely meaningless figures, but Oakeshott is travelling well at this stage of the evening. Greens vote also quite strong in Cowper on the early figures.

You guys really are the best.

All kinds of fabulous.

Exactly as it should be. I repeat. Go #ausvotes

Our calculations of the numbers required for the various scenarios this evening

A quick reminder on the core numbers before the results start flooding in. We can make an assumption that the parties enter the election with the following number of seats:

• 89 – Coalition

• 57 – Labor

• 1 – Greens

• 1 – Katter’s Australian party

• 2 – Independent

How many seats need to change hands for the government to lose power?

  • Seventy-six seats are needed for a majority in the House of Representatives.
  • If the Coalition loses 14 seats, they will lose their majority.
  • If Labor gains 19 seats, they will gain their own majority.
  • If the number of seats changing hands falls somewhere in the middle, we will have a hung parliament and government will be decided by the crossbench MPs.

Updated

Now this looks the stuff. Go #ausvotes

A quick dispatch from independent land

News from the camps of Tony Windsor challenging Barnaby Joyce in New England and Rob Oakeshott challenging Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper. Oakeshott has tweeted that he has received messages suggesting some booths in Cowper ran out of ballot papers. A voter told him the booth workers would tick off the name but they could not vote. He will be lodging a complaint with the Australian Electoral Commission.

Meanwhile, Windsor caused a stir by putting a sign on his door barring entry for News Ltd journalists.

Windsor has long had a rocky relationship with News Corp papers but the enmity culminated last week when the Australian ran a story that alleged Windsor was a bully at school. Windsor said he had referred it to his lawyers.

Tonight, when asked about the ban by Leigh Sales, Windsor said: “Well, I don’t want them here. That’s what it’s about. That’s what it says.”

Updated

Here’s what happens when they hold the election on your wedding day ... Pics by our photographer, Jonny Weeks, in Sydney.

A bride and groom who got married at St Mary’s Church in Manly, Sydney and then voted in the the general election at school next door. 2 July 2016. Photo by Jonny Weeks for The Guardian (Australia).
A bride and groom who got married at St Mary’s Church in Manly, Sydney. and then voted in the the general election at the school next door.
A bride and groom who got married at St Mary’s Church in Manly, Sydney and then voted in the the general election at school next door. 2 July 2016. Photo by Jonny Weeks for The Guardian (Australia).
A bride and groom who got married at St Mary’s Church in Manly, Sydney and then voted in the the general election at school next door. 2 July 2016. Photo by Jonny Weeks for The Guardian (Australia).

Updated

Latest intelligence from the campaigns

Just before we get to facts, Labor thinks they are the beneficiaries of a late swing, attributable to voter concerns about Medicare. Both sides are now saying this election is very close. It all depends how the swing is distributed and what happens in South Australia.

Polls have closed in the eastern states. Stand by for facts.

The best kind of election party.

'It would have been a different campaign ...'

Over on the Seven Network, Tony Abbott is being interviewed by Alan Jones. Jones asks him whether he could have won this election.

Tony Abbott:

It would have been a different campaign obviously if I’d been at the helm.

Abbott says he would have run a campaign seeking a mandate for making substantial savings. He doesn’t give a straight answer to the question.

Nice of him to bob up on election night. Sporting of him, really.

Updated

Around the country it is party time.

'I'm hoping for at least three'

Nick Xenophon is talking to the ABC at the moment and he’s asked about how he thinks the NXT will go in the Senate tonight.

I don’t know. I’m hoping for at least three, and maybe four or five because we’re ... we’re still in with a chance in other states.

We won’t know about those seats for a number of days because of the new Senate voting system.

Updated

The view of the bookies.

Fifteen minutes until first results.

Nine exit poll a dead heat

The exit poll on Nine is 50-50. There is quite a lot of buzz around the major parties tonight about tightening in the last days but I will believe things tonight when I see them and not before.

Updated

I missed the Nine news but Twitter is telling me that they have broadcast an exit poll which points to a photo finish. Now just imagine that. Imagine if we end up with a night like 2010? Now wouldn’t that be something.

If you’d like to recap the magic moment when the leaders cast their votes, here is Malcolm Turnbull with small dogs in Double Bay ...

Malcolm and Lucy Turnbull vote at Double Bay public school in his Sydney electorate of Wentworth
Malcolm and Lucy Turnbull vote at Double Bay public school in his Sydney electorate of Wentworth. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

... and Bill Shorten locked in mortal combat with a large blue fish in Moonee Ponds.

Bill Shorten and his wife, Chloe, walk past a Dory fish with their children Rupert and Clementine after casting their votes in West Moonee Ponds primary school, Melbourne
Bill Shorten and his wife, Chloe, walk past a Dory fish with their children Rupert and Clementine after casting their votes in West Moonee Ponds primary school, Melbourne. Photograph: Tracey Nearmy/AAP

Updated

If you’ve been tuned out all day, the most interesting twist (apart from the usual sign wars and grumpiness between warring camps around booths) appears to be voters being given not entirely accurate instructions when they turned up to vote today.

Some officials working polling booths were not telling voters they could number additional boxes if they chose to do so. The relevant sentence being omitted appears below in bold.

For the House of Representatives, complete the ballot paper by placing a number one in the box next to the candidate you most prefer and numbering all other boxes in the order of your choice.

For the Senate, complete the ballot paper by numbering one to six above the line OR by numbering one to twelve below the line, in order of your choice. You can continue numbering as many additional boxes as you choose.

If you make a mistake and need another ballot paper bring it back to me and I will give you another one.

Anecdotally, the voting process was also taking longer than usual because people were not sure about how the new senate voting rules worked.

Fancy meeting you here #ausvotes

Hello everyone and welcome to our live coverage of the 2016 election results as they happen. I hope you are all gathered with your friends and family somewhere warm, with some celebratory treats, or commiseration treats, or more straightforward anxiety eating provisions, ready for this evening’s verdict.

Polls in the eastern states close in about an hour’s time, at 6pm. This gives us a moment to gather in calm fashion and set the scene.

The field evidence (including Guardian Australia’s poll of polls survey) is pointing to a victory for the Coalition this evening, although the wildcard in this election is disaffection with the major parties. This morning’s Newspoll survey showed support for ABTM – anyone but the majors – at the highest levels seen in an Australian election since 1934. When you’ve got a new, floating, disaffected group that large, predicting results becomes very difficult. In this final Newspoll sample, 23% of voters said they intended to vote for the Greens, or Nick Xenophon, or some other micro-party or an independent – such as Tony Windsor, or Cathy McGowan.

As longtime poll watcher Peter Brent explains in Inside Story today, the smaller the total major party vote “the more rubbery the estimated or even measured two-party preferred support”. We can say with total certainty the ABTM group is going to influence the outcome tonight but it’s hard to say with precision how. Brent, for his part, thinks the ABTM dynamic likely benefits the Coalition more than Labor because of the right-leanings of a lot of the micro-party groupings, analysis which sounds, on the face of it, logical to me. He’s pointing to a Coalition victory with 85 out of 150 seats.

I still have absolutely no idea how tonight is going to go; that’s the long and short of it, no clue. Anyway the best part of this evening is we no longer have to rely on polls, or make rash predictions, we can deal with facts. Data will come in. Judgments can be made. And we can also have fun.

Tonight is my last regular appearance on Politics Live. As of tomorrow, the wonderful Gabrielle Chan is taking ownership of this project. So there will be laughter tonight and possibly a little bit of sadness too when the end finally rolls round. Let’s charge our glasses, lodge the pizza orders, pop another log on the fire, whip on the ugg boots and get ready for the best night Australian democracy can possibly supply.

A reminder tonight’s comments thread is open for your business. If the thread’s too bracing for you, Mike Bowers (who is positioned with the Coalition tonight) and I are up and about on the twits – he’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo. If you only speak Facebook you can join my daily forum here. And if you want a behind-the-scenes look at today and back on the campaign as a whole, give Mike a follow on Instagram. You can find him here.

If you need to review election day, the wonderful Helen Davidson covered the festival from top to toe and more besides. You can review that here.

Pop your corks early and often. Do it for your country. Here comes election night.

Updated

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