Nighty night
Well good people it’s been real, thanks very much for your company. Let’s wrap up a brisk #ausvotes evening before retreating into our dressing gowns.
Tonight:
- The Labor leader Bill Shorten won the people’s vote at the people’s forum in Brisbane, fielding questions on a range of topics from superannuation, to asylum seekers, to mental health and family payments. The main news line was Labor will no longer take the GST off tampons, which it has previously signalled an interest in doing. So we have another savings measure. Thanks Brisbane for flushing that out.
-
Malcolm Turnbull elected not to turn up, facing Leigh Sales instead. The conversation was less than a picnic. Sales pressed Turnbull on why his polling has deflated, why he promised adult government and has delivered hyperbole, what ordinary people can expect from company tax cuts, why the economy hasn’t improved. Turnbull just insisted he was the man with the plan.
The sun has gone to bed and so must I. We’ll be back with the live coverage of the campaign from dawn tomorrow. Until then, have a lovely evening.
Just an observation: not one question on budget management for Bill Shorten tonight. Not one question on negative gearing. I’ve been struck by the absence of voter concern on negative gearing at these forums throughout the campaign. I really thought that issue would be hotter with voters than it is.
I’ll post a summary next.
Bill Shorten wins over the voters in Brisbane
The audience data is in.
57 voters were more likely to vote Labor, 16 less likely and 27 undecided.
Bill Shorten would be happy with that result.
And with that, the prime minister departs the studio. I suspect he would have had an easier time of it in Brisbane.
A few questions to finish. On same sex marriage, Turnbull says he thinks the change will get through the parliament. No doubt he says.
I will say that I support same sex marriage, legalising same sex marriage and I will certainly be voting yes in the plebiscite.
Q: Hillary Clinton is officially the Democrat candidate for US president. Would a Turnbull government prefer to deal with a Clinton administration than a Trump White House?
Malcolm Turnbull:
You may say that but I couldn’t possibly comment.
Q: What do you think has happened that you have lost that chunk of approval?
Malcolm Turnbull:
I am not going to be drawn into that kind of introspection. My job is to focus on the needs of Australians.
'I have noted the polling but I don’t take any notice of it.'
Q: I started with the two benchmarks that you set for yourself. Let’s shift to the polling. You said in your first interview as PM on this program that nobody looks at opinion polls more than politicians. Let’s continue in that vain of frank honesty. Your personal popularity has dropped 50 points since that day, you can’t not be bothered by that. What has gone wrong?
Malcolm Turnbull says he’s focus is elsewhere.
Would you agree that fall in your approval rating, because you have established you are interested in polling, can only reflect that people have been disappointed in you?
Malcolm Turnbull:
I have noted the polling but I don’t take any notice of it.
Then why are you launching pantomime-ish attacks on Labor.
Q: Why do you keep exaggerating in the language that you use - you say they are declaring a war on the family businesses of Australia, that they want to stand in the way. Even if you disagree with their policies, you are really saying they are declaring a war and want to stand in the way?
Malcolm Turnbull:
I assume - leaving aside the metaphors -
Q: You are the one who has said them -
Malcolm Turnbull:
Fair enough, that is a choice of language.
Q: Why are you doing that?
Malcolm Turnbull:
It is important to call it out for what it is. Let me just -
Q: You are not. My point in my question is that you are exaggerating it and I am wondering why the first interview you did on this program when you became PM, you said you wanted to engage with voters in away that wanted to respect their intelligence. Is exaggerating a point respecting their intelligence?
Malcolm Turnbull:
I am not exaggerating, if I can answer the question I will do so.
Malcolm Turnbull was pushed on what a business tax cut means for ordinary people.
Q: I am not sure – does that message connect with people who struggle to pay for childcare, who go to the emergency room at the hospital and they have a long wait? It takes them an hour to commute to work. I am wondering if the way you frame that message connects with people?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Everybody knows that their prosperity depends on the prosperity of their employer. If they are working for a business, as most people are, working in the private sector, they want to know that their business is doing well, the company they are working for is investing, is growing, is able to retain more of its earnings and put more back into the business. Everything we are doing is going to encourage more investment.
Updated
Brisbane is a wrap.
Catching up in Sydney.
Q: The company tax cut is the centrepiece of your economic policy –
Malcolm Turnbull:
It is one of the very important elements.
Q: In practical terms, what would that deliver to a household where dad is a policeman and mum is a teacher?
Malcolm Turnbull:
It delivers stronger economic growth –
Q: What does that mean to them?
Malcolm Turnbull:
It means greater opportunities, it means more jobs. It means stronger economy, they have got better prospects in everything they do.
Updated
Back in Brisbane, Bill Shorten is asked about justice for asylum seekers.
The Labor leader says Labor wants to stop the drownings at sea but will do more to ensure people aren’t detained indefinitely.
David Speers asks whether Shorten will put a timetable on getting people out of offshore detention. Bill Shorten says it would be stupid to do that, so he won’t.
Updated
In Sydney.
Q: When you challenged Tony Abbott, you cited two reasons. Poor polling and the lack of a coherent economic message. I would like to discuss your performance against those two benchmarks that you set your yourself, starting with the economy. Do you accept far from establishing a coherent message, your delay in announcing policy and your wishy washiness has confused and disillusioned voters?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Everyone in Australia understands that we do have a plan for jobs and growth and they understand that it has a number of elements, innovation, defence industry investment, the export trade deals, employment programs and business tax cuts.
Q: You took a long time to get there and hasn’t that left people confused?
Malcolm Turnbull:
I believe that the message is very clearly understood that there is one party or one coalition of parties, the Liberal/National coalition, one government which I am the prime minister, which has a clear plan for jobs and growth.
We have laid it out.
Updated
In Brisbane, number thirteen is about family payments for large families. The lady asking the question has eight children.
Bill Shorten says he wants to talk to her after the forum. He wants to understand her current circumstances rather than spouting generalities.
David Speers wants Shorten to acknowledge Labor’s position on cutting family payments for large families.
Shorten says not everybody’s life fits into a Sky News interview.
Question fourteen is about fracking.
Bill Shorten says Labor supports a water trigger to determine whether CSG projects proceed. He also says there will be no commonwealth money for the Adani coalmine.
David Speers asks Shorten whether Adani should be stopped. The Labor leader repeats his formulation about no government money.
Updated
Back in Sydney.
Q: What is your one signature achievement as a government?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Overall is that strong economic growth. That is – at the end of day, some people have got comfortable jobs and are feeling happy and certain in their destiny. Many Australians are concerned about the security of their job, the prospects for their business, the security for their children’s jobs. Everywhere I go people talk to me about the prospects for their children. I am the only leader in this election that is setting out a clear economic plan that will deliver stronger economic growth and more jobs and better jobs and take advantage of the great opportunities in the current economic environment.
Q: I will come to some of the looking forward things in a minute. What you have nominated as your signature is your economic record. You go back to before the last election and the Coalition was campaigning on what it considered to be Labor’s atrocious levels of spending and the size of the deficit. Both of those two things, there has been no improvement, in fact quite the opposite?
Malcolm Turnbull:
We inherited a terrible mess from the Labor party.
Q: You have had three years!
Updated
Back to Brisbane, a question on the sharing economy, number twelve, and would Bill Shorten do a face swap snap chat with Malcolm Turnbull?
Yes, to that question. On sharing economy, Bill Shorten says he’s into Uber and AirBnB, but it shouldn’t be the “wild west.”
Question thirteen is on contractors, workers being exploited, what will Labor do?
Bill Shorten says Labor thinks there should be contracting and labour hire but he thinks there should be transparency and better protection for people on temporary visas.
Updated
'I am looking forward'
Back in Sydney.
Q: You are talking about going forward. I was referring to your record in your three years in government?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Our record is good. In 2015 we had 3% growth in GDP. It is now 3.1% the last figures. We had over 300,000 jobs created, the highest number of jobs created in Australia since before the GFC.
Q: Then you come up against this problem that if your record was so good, why did you have to dump a first-term PM?
Malcolm Turnbull:
I am looking forward. My job as PM is to ensure that our children and grandchildren have the best opportunities in the future and we do that by securing our economic future with our national economic plan.
Q: You would have to understand voters make their decision looking at your record as well as what you are promising?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Our record is strong. Look at what we have done in terms of economic growth.
Q: I come back to the same point. If your record is strong, why did you have to replace a first-term PM?
Malcolm Turnbull:
The record is strong.
Updated
Back in Brisbane question eleven is penalty rates: we need them because cost of living is so high.
Bill Shorten says he’s confident that Labor can protect penalty rates.
David Speers says what will you do if the Fair Work Commission rules against Sunday penalties?
Bill Shorten:
I trust the system to protect the interests [of workers].
I’ve got complete confidence the independent umpire is the best protection for workers in this country.
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull fronts 7.30
While Bill Shorten says the election is a referendum on whether there would be a banking royal commission, Malcolm Turnbull has entered the ABC studios.
Q: Why should Australians re-elect a government that considered its own performance so poor that it dumped a first term PM and the economy has basically tread water for three years?
Malcolm Turnbull:
We have a national economic plan for jobs and growth and we have delivered elements of that plan already. Part of our plan is big trade export deals. We have opened up huge markets in Asia which are driving investment and growth and employment right across the country. Our economy is in transition from a big mining construction boom, which fuelled up economic activity here and employment. That has declined as it was always going to. Where do we get the growth story going forward? We have set in place a plan that will deliver that and is delivering that.
Updated
Tenth question is will we have a Greek financial crisis. (I think).
Bill Shorten says no, there will be no Greek financial crisis and then he dives bank into cultural issues with the banks. We need that royal commission.
Updated
Ninth question is about the CFMEU and industrial action. Does he support stoppages in construction?
Bill Shorten says he has no time for anyone abusing their industrial influence, employers or unions. He slips the banks in then. He’d like a royal commission into the banks.
Eighth question is about climate change.
Bill Shorten says he likes the old Malcolm Turnbull better than the new Malcolm Turnbull on climate change, he likes the fellow who believed in action. This is a line he uses frequently. He says Labor supports renewables and public transport to get cars off the road.
Seventh question is about agriculture and dam building. Does Labor support both?
Bill Shorten says yes, Labor supports agriculture and dams where the evidence suggests they are necessary.
For me dams will be guided by science and the economy.
Sixth question is about superannuation (with a side of disappointment about Malcolm Turnbull’s absence from tonight’s proceedings). What’s wrong with using super for wealth creation? And will politicians wind back their super as well?
Bill Shorten says the point of concessional taxation for super is to encourage savings for retirement. He says governments making changes to the system drives people bonkers. Shorten is going through the history of changes to the system, including Labor’s proposed changes this election to tax the earnings above $75,000. Any change should not be retrospective. He says concessions at the top end need to be wound back, but prospectively. Shorten says politicians’ super is now less generous than it used to be.
Updated
Fifth question is about Labor’s mistakes in 2008, during the stimulus in the Rudd/GFC era. What would Labor do differently?
Bill Shorten says not everything in the stimulus was bad. The insulation program was very badly managed but you learn from your mistakes, he says. The school upgrades were good. On learnings, Shorten says Labor has learned to be upfront, to seek a mandate, to lay it out in advance. On infrastructure, he says things would be more carefully managed. He says the stimulus did keep Australia out of recession.
David Speers asks him whether Labor would offer stimulus again? A bit, if necessary, Shorten says, adding he doesn’t see another GFC immediately on the horizon.
Updated
Fourth question is why does Shorten think people are voting for independents?
The Labor leader says people think politics is too buttoned up, too stage managed. He says in this election Labor has been the opposite of buttoned up. The opposition is taking risks, being big target. Acting on climate change. Winding back negative gearing.
These have been in the too hard basket for too long.
Shorten says voters want a positive vision for the future, they want inclusion. They don’t want negativity. Shorten says lots of negative things will come Labor’s way in the remaining weeks.
Updated
Third question is on the backpacker tax, will Labor dump it?
Bill Shorten says Labor will review the tax and consult industries like horticulture.
David Speers:
Have you banked it in your costings?
Wait and see, Shorten tells Speers.
Labor will keep the GST on tampons
Second question is on the tampon tax. Will Labor drop it if it wins the election?
Bill Shorten:
No.
Shorten says Labor will take action on things like prescription medicine to help reduce costs.
David Speers says hang on, weren’t you interested in dropping the GST on tampons? Have you had a change of position?
Bill Shorten:
I’ve said we can’t afford that.
To questions now. The first is on mental health. What is Labor’s commitment on mental health and suicide prevention?
Bill Shorten:
I’m not convinced mental health has had the attention in this election that is deserves.
Shorten outlines Labor’s commitments in the area and speaks about suicide. He wants to do a little survey with this audience. How many people here have had experience of suicide? A load of hands fly up.
What that tells me is it’s a big issue.
He says Labor will outline programs for the regions. He says he’s open to longer periods of funding for mental health service providers “so people can just get on and look after people”. Shorten says he’s concerned about people falling through the cracks when they leave hospital after an acute incident. He says Labor wants to preserve bulk billing to make sure people can get to the doctor.
Updated
Bill Shorten makes his opening pitch
The Labor leader also notes the absence of the prime minister. It’s a pity he disdained the good voters of Brisbane, Bill Shorten says. The Labor leader says the object of the exercise tonight is for voters to get to know him better.
Sky News political editor David Speers is doing the warm up. He tells the audience the prime minister “chose not to be here tonight.”
Tonight’s event is the roving microphone format, questions from the voters – the audience is 100 undecided voters from Brisbane – moderated by Sky News political editor David Speers. Here’s the description of the marginal electorate from the Australian Electoral Commission.
Brisbane covers an area of approximately 58 sq km from Everton Park and Stafford in the north to the Brisbane River in the west and south and to Hamilton and Hendra in the east. The main suburbs include Albion, Alderley, Ascot, Bowen Hills, Brisbane City, Clayfield, Fortitude Valley, Gaythorne, Gordon Park, Grange, Hamilton, Hendra, Herston, Kalinga, Kelvin Grove, Lutwyche, Milton, New Farm, Newmarket, Newstead, Red Hill, Spring Hill, Wilston, Windsor, Wooloowin and parts of Ashgrove, Bardon, Everton Park, Enoggera, Paddington and Stafford.
Guardian Australia election debates, live
While we are on the subject of election debates, just a reminder, we at Guardian Australia are running two live panel discussions over the next couple of weeks featuring Tanya Plibersek, Trent Zimmerman, Cassandra Goldie, Christian Porter, Jenny Macklin and George Megalogenis. The first is in Sydney on June 15, the second is in Melbourne on June 21. Our election debates will consider two topics: what is fair, and how do we manage an economy in transition? We’d love to see you there. If you’d like to book, the details are here.
In the Sky warm up, journalist Laura Jayes asks Peter Reith, the Liberal who is the designated talking head at this stage of proceedings, whether Labor’s decision today to present a worse outcome over the forward estimates than the Coalition is the biggest opposition cock-up since Fightback!
Fellow Sky host Paul Murray declared it such earlier this evening.
Reith, who was a key architect of Fightback! as John Hewson’s treasurer, has the grace to laugh.
Updated
Yes, here’s Bill Shorten, with the sunflowers, and wife Chloe.
.@billshortenmp arrives at the 2nd people's forum for this election with wife Chloe #ausvotes @2GBNews pic.twitter.com/vRqzZZiOKv
— Stephanie Borys (@StephieBorys) June 8, 2016
The Labor leader has arrived at the venue in Brisbane. Here was the welcoming party.
The supporters who applauded @billshortenmp when he arrived at the Brisbane people's forum #ausvotes #auspol pic.twitter.com/6mpgRexQKs
— Jane Lee (@JaneSYLee) June 8, 2016
Good evening to you all
Hello and welcome to this special evening edition of Politics Live, as always it’s delightful to be with you. Tonight we’ve come together for two reasons. The Labor leader Bill Shorten will address voters in Brisbane at another people’s forum hosted by Sky News. He’ll be flying solo at that event, Malcolm Turnbull has declined to join him, opting instead to be interviewed by Leigh Sales on 7.30 this evening. I will aim to cover both events in something approximating coherent fashion.
Let’s recap the day on the hustings briefly before we launch ourselves into these two events.
Today, Labor stopped circling around the core issue of the economy and budget management, and engaged directly, setting out some parameters about a return to budget balance. Labor admitted their numbers would be worse than the government’s over the forward estimates, but better than the government’s over the ten year cycle, courtesy of the impact of structural savings, like curbing negative gearing concessions. These were broad brush strokes, set out by Bill Shorten and the shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen. We still haven’t seen the numbers of course and likely won’t for another couple of weeks. It’s a significant political gamble by Labor: will voters look at the four-year position and think hmm, no thanks, or will they think about the 10-year position and the investments in schools and hospitals and the like?
The Coalition for its part argued today that voters should look at the four-year position (because that is what is required under the charter of budget of honesty and because 10-year budgetary positions are inherently unreliable). All very sound, orthodox in fact, except for the minor inconvenience that the government’s own election centrepiece is a ten year plan to cut taxes for business, boosting growth and jobs. It remains a ten year plan, notwithstanding recent rebadging to play down the significance of the big business tax cuts at the end of the “glide path”. Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison warned that Labor’s stance over the forward estimates would threaten Australia’s AAA credit rating, and argued Labor had no plans for growth, only plans to thump the economy into submission with taxes on investment.
Tonight’s event in Brisbane will present something of a real world litmus test on the respective economic visions. I’ll be very interested to see how the questions go this evening.
As will you good people. Tonight’s comments thread is open for your business. If that’s too hot for your taste you can chat to me on Twitter @murpharoo or on my politics forum on Facebook. I even talk back, mostly, nicely.
Let’s roll forward. Microwave the leftovers, there’s still time. Here comes Wednesday night.
Updated
