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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
National
Gabrielle Chan and Helen Davidson (earlier)

Australian election 2016: new poll has Labor at 51% and Coalition at 49% – as it happened

Opposition leader Bill Shorten
Opposition leader Bill Shorten sits in the driver’s seat of a tram as he tours the Bombardier factory in Dandenong, Tuesday 21 June 2016. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Night time politics

What happened today?

  • The Daily Mail found the #FakeTradie and he was a real tradie.
  • The Essential poll showed Labor leading the Coalition on a 2PP basis 51-49.
  • Malcolm Turnbull again promised to legislate the full 1o year corporate tax cut plan.
  • The PM joined with Labor to celebrate the hand over of land titles in the Kenbi land claim - a case 37 years in the making.
  • The Kurdish Iranian journalist Behrouz Boochani wrote an impassioned piece for the prime minister, who failed to answer his Q&A question last night.
  • Lenore Taylor has written an analysis of the various scare campaigns in these last weeks of the campaign. Call it a survival guide for July 2.

And that is your lot for the day. I will finish this post where I began. And that is with Rob Oakeshott, who diagnosed Barnaby Joyce’s response to his rather late campaign launch in the National party seat of Cowper.

Politics has got to be more than the rich talking to the rich about the rich. It’s got to be about more than a couple of suburbs and postcodes in Sydney and Melbourne and I’ll be damned if I’m going to accept an accusation from a party leader who is knee deep in Parakeelia, in tax evasion issues on the Panama Papers with the prime minister, political donations from mining, from gambling and tobacco and an average man from the suburbs isn’t allowed to stand?

Lenore’s analysis is spot on. Every day we are treated to scare campaigns from the major parties. Today was no different. The treasurer, Scott Morrison came out in a real estate agent’s office with his set piece speech, railing about the caravan of chaos that would be a hung parliament, the Labor-Greens-independent alliance.

Again, I contend, there are two conversations going on. The majors, with their sophisticated ads, campaign buses, focus groups, polling, marginal seat campaigns and funding pools. And the outliers. If Oakeshott can poll on a primary vote of 25% five days after he announces in a seat in which he has never run, what the hell is going on? If James Stacey, a dairy farmer and Twitter guy in South Australia, can be in with a chance in Barker running for Nick Xenophon against a margin of 16.5%, what gives?

Is the campaign, run on daily scripted events with matching press packs, a thing of the past? Nick Xenophon does not have Clive Palmer’s bank account. Stacey is an ordinary Joe. Oakeshott is sick of the lack of conversation with the community. He doesn’t have the money to throw at a big campaign. Tony Windsor says he is funding it through lots of little donations. Cathy McGowan is running on her community donations for all to see on her campaign page. Andrew Wilkie is digging in in Denison. The one thing they have in common, which contrasts with the big parties is that they are unscripted and largely unfunded. They are having the most refreshing electoral conversations.

Meanwhile, voters I speak to are frustrated, cranky and cynical. They are on the lookout for something else. This campaign is getting more interesting by the day.

Good night.

Dark suits in washed light.

Malcolm Turnbull attends Kenbi land title ceremony.
Malcolm Turnbull attends Kenbi land title ceremony. Photograph: Stefan Postles/Getty Images

Malcolm Turnbull campaigns in Darwin after the Kenbi land ceremony.
Malcolm Turnbull campaigns in Darwin after the Kenbi land ceremony. Photograph: Stefan Postles/Getty Images

What did campaigns do before smart phones?

Bill Shorten tours the Bombardier factory in Dandenong who manufacture rail transport.
Bill Shorten tours the Bombardier factory in Dandenong who manufacture rail transport. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Riffing on Sam Dastyari’s Dandenong look:

Thanks Jabba.

And some advice for Adam Giles, chief minister.

Back to Eric Fejo, in the Northern Territory, challenging Malcolm Turnbull on his northern agenda.

PM: Maguire has apologised, so he should

Q: Bill Shorten today pulled out an interview with Eddie McGuire as a protest against some of his comments. Have you heard those comments? Given you have spoken so strongly for respect of women, what did you think of them?

I have heard about the comments. I understand he has apologised for them. So he should. There is no place for disrespecting women. You’ve heard me say this before but it’s worth repeating. Not all disrespecting women ends up in violence against women. But that is where all violence against women begins. There is no place for disrespectful language towards women, and that particularly applies to people who are in the public eye, whether they’re leaders like myself or media personalities who have a big megaphone. We have to lead by example.

Updated

On Medicare, you’ve accused Labor of running a scare campaign and not having any facts. Isn’t that precisely what you’re doing on negative gearing?

Malcolm Turnbull:

The situation couldn’t be more different. Labor is simply telling lies. About Medicare. It is the most outrageous, bizarre, almost, lie told in this whole campaign. As far as negative gearing is concerned, it is very clear that businesses like this. How will they go when you pull the investors out of the residential property market? How will they go when you pull the investors out of the commercial property market? How will small business formation go when you can’t negative-gear against your personal income and investment in a new business or shares in a private company?

I mean, let’s get real.

PM promises to legislate the full 10 year tax cuts in the next term

Can you give us an ironclad guarantee that you’ll legislate the full 10 years of company tax cuts in your next term?

Yes, absolutely. It is a commitment to legislate for all of those tax cuts, which would go out for the 10-year period. Yes, that’s right.

He follows up, that includes big business cuts.

Updated

Malcolm Turnbull is conducting a press conference now.

“Stick with the current mob for a while.” Is that your pitch to voters after three years in government?

It is a call for continued stability. Really, there is a very clear choice here. On the one hand, you have a stable Coalition government which I lead with a clear national economic plan that will drive stronger growth and more jobs. What is the alternative? Mr Shorten has now abandoned any participation in the economic debate and, instead, engaged in one desperate lie after another.

Turning to South Australia to Nick X. The Xenophon Team is sweeping the state, rattling the cages of the major parties to great effect. I have it on good authority the seats in danger are (in the following order):

  1. Mayo - Lib Jamie Briggs 12.5 %
  2. Grey - Lib Rowan Ramsey 13.5%
  3. Boothby - Lib Andrew Southcott retiring, Lib Nicole Flint 7.1%
  4. Barker - Tony Pasin 16.5%!!!

Reachtel polling in the Daily Tele today has Barker’s Tony Pasin running on 2PP basis at 48 to NXT candidate James Stacey’s 52.

The poll of 869 Barker residents showed that of people who would not give their first preference to the Liberals or the Xenophon party, a whopping 84.5 per cent would ­preference the Xenophon ­candidate above the Liberals.

Dasher in Dandenong.

Mores silliness. It’s all in the zip.

I do love a silly turn. Thanks to Rosie Lewis of the Oz for the great high viz vest competition.

Malcolm Turnbull is led in by Kenbi Dance Group members to the Kenbi land claim title deed handover.
Malcolm Turnbull is led in by Kenbi Dance Group members to the Kenbi land claim title deed handover. Photograph: Stefan Postles/Getty Images

Essential polling is just out. 2PP Coalition 49% Labor 51%.

  • Primary votes:
  • Liberal 37%
  • National 3%
  • Labor 37%
  • Greens 10%
  • Nick Xenophon 4%
  • Others 9%

The other wombat trail.

Senator Dio Wang, campaigning in the Kimberley.

Updated

Lunchtime politics: After today it will be their sand.

A young aboriginal dancer plays in the sand during the Kenbi Native land claim ceremony near Darwin.
A young aboriginal dancer plays in the sand during the Kenbi Native land claim ceremony near Darwin. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

Good afternoon. Better late than never but here is a short summary of the days events, now that we are out beyond the breakers.

  • The prime minister, the Indigenous affairs minister and Labor MP Warren Snowdon have handed over the title deeds to the Kenbi land claim on the Cox peninsula. It was brief respite in the election campaign, which continued around the themes of Medicare and negative gearing policy. The handover symbolised the end of a 37-year-old claim process, where claimants doggedly pursued the case in spite of attacks by generations of politicians – a point noted by Snowdon. The prime minister declared “you are the land and the land is you”.
  • Kurdish Iranian journalist Behrouz Boochani replied to Turnbull’s answer on Q&A last night. Boochani originally asked why he was sitting in Manus in an illegal prison. In his reply he accused Turnbull of lying to the Australian public.
  • Foreign minister Julie Bishop has promised a Global Watch Office, to provide better information to Australian government authorities in emerging disaster situations, both natural and manmade.
  • The #FakeTradie has been found and he is a #RealTradie and committed Liberal voter.

Updated

Bill Shorten plays around with Peter Helliar from The Project TV show at his press conference earlier this morning.
Bill Shorten plays around with Peter Helliar from The Project TV show at his press conference earlier this morning. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

From Helen Davidson:

The handback of traditional lands to its Aboriginal owners was interrupted by a protest a short time ago, with Larrakia man Eric Fejo symbolically tearing up the government’s “Developing the North” white paper.

Before he took part in a ceremonial dance, Fejo, who is also contesting the Kenbi claim, took the mic to protest against the federal and NT governments.

“Prime minister, what deals are you doing with multinationals in regards to environmental issues?” he said. He then tore up a piece of white paper, symbolising the government’s federal plan for the northern region.

He singled out chief minister, Adam Giles. “Where’s Adam?”

Giles raised his hand.

“You got no right to tell our countrymen to piss off, you got no right. Our country is here, Larrakia country.”

He finished uninterrupted.

“You can take your white paper and your developing the north. But at what cost?”

Updated

Here they are, the land titles handed back to the traditional owners.

The Kenbi ceremony continues and Helen Davidson reports:

Enjoy.

B2M are playing at the Kenbi ceremony.

It has been refreshing to see the land title handover in the middle of this election campaign. It is a reminder that amongst all the white noise, politics can do something tangible. Even this particular event took 37 years.

Updated

Back to the Press Club, both Bishop and Plibersek are asked about the Eddie Maguire comments about drowning journalist Caro Wilson.

Plibersek:

I think Malcolm Turnbull said it well when he said not all disrespect leads to violence against women but all violence against women starts with disrespecting women. I think the kind of casual jokes about domestic violence, I don’t know if they were ever funny but when we’re losing more than one woman a week to domestic homicide I don’t think people should be laughing about drowning women.

Bishop:

It is an exceedingly important issue and no one should seek to trivialise it. But I will not comment every day about what radio talk show hosts say about another sports writer and give it oxygen. I think the issue of domestic violence is significant. The Australian government is taking it seriously and we will continue to do so.

Updated

Our Northern Territory corro and sometime blogster Helen Davidson posted this recently. I think this relates to the dispute over the claim. I will confirm shortly.

I will just break away from the press club back to the Kenbi land ceremony. Thanks to Dan Bourchier of Sky for this clip of the sharp end of the Snowdon speech.

Updated

Q: Nauru has had ongoing issues with the rule of law and opposition MPs have been locked up in jail and barred from visiting their family in New Zealand. Nauru goes to the polls a week after Australia does on July 9. Does Australia have concerns about how that election will be carried out? Will Australia be sending observers? Has the offshore detention centre stopped Australia from being more vocal on the crumbling situation?

Nauru as its own nation is certainly in charge of its own election. If it seeks international observers, Australia would be a country that would obviously seek to do so as we have in the Pacific in the past, says Bishop.

The next question is about whether Australia could grant exceptions for some Australians fighting overseas, such as those fighting against Isil with the Kurds. The second question asks about the humanitarian effort in Syria given Australia is involved militarily.

Both say it is just too tricky to start making exemptions. Bishop says Australia has provided $470m over the last two governments but Plibersek says it is not enough.

I don’t like to criticise at a time like this but, in fact, our humanitarian effort has been pretty poor. We actually put a significant amount of money in when we were still in government. The effort has in some senses declined as this crisis has worsened. We said that we would take 12,000 Syrian refugees – a fraction of those have been resettled currently.

Updated

There is a question on Donald Trump and whether Australia should speak up when things get “objectionable”. The point goes to the US-Australia relationship and whether we should speak up when we see things that will affect us.

Bishop says no, we work with the world as it is, not as we wish it would be.

Plibersek says she will work with whomever is in power and points out some Australians have spoken out against Trump, as John Howard did when Barak Obama was elected.

I think some of the ideas that Mr Trump has expressed, however, are wrong ideas and I don’t think there’s any problem with objecting to some of those wrong ideas, including the statements about a decreased American presence in our region, that the allies in the region are not bearing our share of responsibilities for security in our region, and some of the things that he’s said domestically, plainly, I wouldn’t agree with it and I think a lot of Australians wouldn’t agree.

Updated

Greg Sheridan of the Oz asks why Australia does not push the point with freedom of navigation exercises.

Q: Shouldn’t we actually conduct a real freedom of navigation exercise – that is to say, sailing within 12 nautical miles of an artificial Chinese structure – and aren’t we rather not living up to our rhetoric by not doing so?

Plibersek says no and is certainly not going to talk it up at the press club.

Bishop says the same in these words:

We’ve made it plain that we do not recognise a maritime jurisdiction by the creation of artificial reefs, and this is the issue that the Philippines arbitration has been asked to determine. So, in the meantime, we will continue to traverse the waters and the skies around the South China Sea as we have always done because for us to change operations now, I believe, would escalate tensions and that would not be in the interests of the claimant countries or our relationships with countries in the region.

Updated

First question to Plibersek and Bishop is on a statement from Labor defence shadow Stephen Conroy who said:

“We believe our defence force should be authorised to conduct freedom of navigation operations consistent with international law.”

Laura Tingle wants to know if they endorse this view and what you think of the Chinese comments that this may have economic consequences.

Bishop says it is a moot point because:

The Australian Defence Force already conducts freedom of navigation and flight over the South China Sea in international waters and have done so for a long period of time and will continue to do so in accordance with international law.

Plibersek says, like the government, Labor will not take sides.

We absolutely agree with the government that we don’t take sides in this. But it is very important that Australia continue to assert our freedom of navigation, both in the sea and in the skies, in accordance with international law. We agree that we should ask parties to de-escalate tensions.

Plibersek talks about the common ground between the Coalition and Labor regarding global alliances, such as the United States and Asia.

Labor has always been in favour of solidarity with our neighbours and independence. It is not because we think there is a moral case for this but because it is in our national interest. We can’t be secure and prosperous as a nation in a world that is not secure and prosperous. We benefit in a world that is doing better. We see this through our trading relationships.

Updated

Coalition announces a Global Watch Office

Bishop announces a new Global Watch Office that will

provide better and more targeted and accurate information on emerging situations overseas on a 24-hour basis. So that our decision-makers can be armed with better information so that we can respond to situations like the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, the cyclones and natural disasters in the Pacific, or tragic events like MH17.

Ok we are coming up to lunch time and the only lunch in sight is the one at the National Press Club where the two deputy leaders, Julie Bishop and Tanya Plibersek are debating.

Bishop is up first, talking about Coalition policies in foreign affairs, including the new Colombo Plan and the InnovationXchange.

Under the Coalition’s new Colombo plan, already 10,000 Australian undergraduate students have had the opportunity to live, study and work in over 35 countries in our region.

The InnovationXchange is the program designed to come up with “efficient and effective ways of delivering our aid program”.

Indigenous minister Nigel Scullion on the Kenbi claim:

Today is recognition that you are traditional owners of country and that your family were traditional owners and that your children will be recognised as traditional owners. It is a delight I have to say to observe from where I’m standing now, the distraction, the delighted distraction of the young children who are among the Kenbi dancers. They are playing in the sand as children will want to do, but after today it will be their sand and their future.

As we consider the injustices of the past up in Darwin, today’s Indigenous community still faces this sort of stuff.

A 64-year-old man from the New South Wales central coast has pleaded guilty to posting racist and offensive online messages to the outgoing Labor senator Nova Peris.

Chris Nelson, a chiropractor, pleaded guilty at the Woy Woy local court on Tuesday to one count of using a carriage service to offend.

He was arrested and charged in late May over a comment on the former Northern Territory senator’s Facebook page that told her to “go back to the bush and suck on witchity grubs and yams”.

Meanwhile in Monash:

Warren Snowden thanked the prime minister for his statements regarding bipartisanship. But Snowden harks back to another time that cannot be forgotten.

It was not bipartisan when in 1978 and 1979 when the then CLP government took an act to try to strangle at birth this land claim process and which held out to ultimately almost 18 years to try to prevent the claim being progressed. Now, that’s a shame. That is an absolute shame. And it speaks of that part of our history we should all be aware of, and I know those of you who come from the Northern Territory, who live in the Northern Territory and most particularly if you are an Aboriginal person in the Northern Territory, you understand precisely what I’m saying. That the ‘70s and ’80s were not comfortable, they were not comfortable if you are an Aboriginal person involved in the land claim process, if you were an employee of the Land Council, advancing the interests ofAboriginal interests, you were demonised, pilloried and harassed, attacked by chief ministers, because you were doing what you thought was right and asked to do by traditional owners and obligated to do under the Land Rights Act which, as pointed out, was passed in 1976.

Warren Snowdon is representing Bill Shorten.

For those who couldn’t make it because they are sick or infirm but most particularly for those who have passed, those who were particularly responsible for initiating the struggle in the first place, those whose lives were cut too short so they weren’t able to see this wonderful occasion. So today it’s really one of mixed emotions, one of great happiness and pride that we are here, that we are finally seeing, after 37 years, of tumultuous struggle, this land being transferred back to its original owners.

Turnbull to the Larrakia: today we acknowledge those injustices

Malcolm Turnbull acknowledges past injustices and challenges confronting Indigenous populations as well as achievements made.

We continue to address the challenges that confront us daily of poor outcomes for our First Nation’s peoples, the persistent gap that we seek so desperately to close in health and social outcomes. We must work together if we are to see our First Nation’s people have equality of opportunity. Yet we must not fail to appreciate what is being achieved in the face of adversity. Already, more than 40% ofAustralia’s land mass has been the subject of a successful land rights or native title claim. The education gap for year 12 completions is closing. Child mortality rates are closing. And Aboriginal babies born now are living longer. This can be attributed to the collective work of local, state and federal governments over the last decade.

And then:

Handing back your land must be done with an acknowledgement of the injustices and the trauma of the past, much of which Aboriginal people still live with today. Prior to the arrival of the Europeans, this land, Australia, was cared for by hundreds of nations of Aboriginal people. Yours are the oldest continuing cultures on earth. Our nation is as old as humanity itself, and the Larrakia people were and are the Aboriginal people of the Darwin region. In policies past, Larrakia people were not treated with the respect they deserved. You were confined to reserves, your movement was restricted, your camps, like Lamaroo Beach were relocated to compounds and over generations, children were separated from their families. This trauma and suffering cannot be denied and today we acknowledge those injustices. But today, with the recognition of you as traditional owners, and with your land being handed back to you, we look to the future with hope and with optimism.

Updated

PM on Kenbi land claim: "you are the land and the land is you"

Malcolm Turnbull:

The Kenbi land claim was a hard-fought land rights battle, but it represents so much more than a battle over land. It is a story that epitomises the survival and resilience of our First Australians, survival and resilience of the Larrakia people, for you are the land and the land is you. This is both a celebration and a commemoration, a day to celebrate what has been achieved, but also to remember what has been lost. Today I pay our respects to your elders, your old people, who fought so hard but passed on before their land could be rightfully returned to them.

Malcolm Turnbull is surrounded by aboriginal dancers as he attends the Kenbi Native land claim ceremony.
Malcolm Turnbull is surrounded by aboriginal dancers as he attends the Kenbi Native land claim ceremony. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

A croakey PM is up now at the Kenbi ceremony.

Scratch that. Back to Samuel Bush-Blanasi, chair of the Northern Land Council, who acknowledges the dispute involved in the Kenbi claim regarding who is on the claim and who is left off.

Today we should also put aside the disagreement that I acknowledge some Aboriginal people feel about how this Kenbi land claim has been worked out. Today, let us join together in the spirit of real celebration. The beautiful place we call Cox Peninsula, and islands to the west, are finally back to Aboriginal hands and many more Aboriginal people than just a few traditional owners will benefit from that. Aboriginal people themselves now have great opportunity for economic development. Caring for this country, looking after the cultural environmental value will now be the responsibility of the Aboriginal people themselves. We are all better off for that.

The Kenbi ceremony is just starting in the Northern Territory but Bowers has some pictures from the Shorten press conference first.

Q: Is it not true to say that when it comes to specifically the issue of privatisation of any aspect of Medicare, both major parties have exactly the same position?

Bill Shorten:

No, I wouldn’t trust this government with the health of the nation. You can’t say we have the same position when the fact of the matter is it wasn’t Labor who set up a privatisation taskforce.

On Medicare, does Shorten think the payment system needs to be modernised?

Everything always needs to be updated. I won’t stand here and say otherwise, but what Medicare doesn’t need to do is to be privatised or undermined. What Medicare needs is a government who will defend Medicare and let’s call it as it. Mr Turnbull, if re-elected, will freeze the payments to GPs for six years. That’s a fact. He wants to increase the price of medicine for prescription drugs. That’s a fact. Mr Turnbull wants to scrap the bulk-billing incentives for pathology tests and for diagnostic imaging. That’s a fact. Labor will not do any of those three measures.

Updated

Shorten is asked whether he is concerned that the Country Fire Association (CFA) volunteers are campaigning against him over a dispute with the United Firefighters Association (UFA). He is having a bob each way.

It is not a matter of saying one group of people are more meritorious than another group of people. They are both committed to the safety of Victoria and the safety of Victorians. This has been a disappointing dispute and of course everyone would like to see it resolved more quickly than it has been.

Shorten is asked about an unfair dismissal claim reported on by the ABC.

This matter was dealt with by the Department of Finance. There has been a confidentiality settlement, I will not go to that.

Updated

Shorten is asked about the Adept report on Labor’s negative gearing policy – which claims it will cause a 4% drop in house prices across the country – mentioned earlier.

The truth of the matter is why should first-home buyers be discriminated against and receive no support from government yet someone buying their 10th investment property gets a tax subsidy paid by every taxpayer in Australia? The great Australian dream is for parents to be able to see their adult children enter the housing market. This country has to make choices about budget repair.

Updated

All of the questions so far to Bill Shorten have been on Medicare, specifically the Coalition’s proposition that their idea to privatise the payment system did not go anywhere near cabinet.

You either have considered the proposition or you haven’t. The truth of the matter is that this government is not great defenders of Medicare. They’ve been caught out on their privatisation taskforce. There was $5m for this taskforce which was revealed at parliamentary estimates, but it doesn’t stop there ... You can’t be half for Medicare two weeks before an election, and then after the election, roll out your Productivity Commission review which is looking at the contestability of services which go to the heart of Medicare, and we will keep defending Medicare as much as Mr Turnbull keeps undermining its future.

Updated

Bill Shorten is up now for a doorstop. He is speaking about Medicare.

Q&A: Kurdish journalist to PM: You never answer my questions because you are guilty

Ben has also sent me the statement from Kurdish Iranian journalist Behrouz Bouchani. If you watched Q&A last night, you may have seen his fantastic question to Turnbull.

His question was:

I’m talking to you from Manus Prison. Australia exiled me by force three years ago. What is my crime? I am a refugee who fled injustice, discrimination and persecution. I didn’t leave my family by choice. Why am I still in this illegal prison after three years?”

This short statement is an answer to the Australian prime minister. PM, I asked you some questions last night, but unfortunately you didn’t respond me. PM, now again, I look at your eyes and shout at you to make you answer my questions. What is my crime? Why am I still in this illegal prison after three years? Why you have held me hostage for three years? Why you did not accept PNG supreme court decision after two months?Why you have tortured me? Why you gave me positive result without any application? Why you don’t say to me how many years I must stay in your Guantanamo?

I have so many questions but I’m sure you don’t have any logical answers for them. I want to say that you did not answer to my questions because you could not,because you don’t have any plan for future. You are lying to Australian people and playing with Australian international reputation. The big companies are controlling you and your gov is against humanity. I know you never answer my questions because you are guilty.

I would like to ask my questions from kind Australian people too, because I want you to think deeply about humanity and imagine children and woman that your government is torturing and humiliating. I ask you while I am experiencing and considering the extreme systematic torture that 2000 children, women and men are suffering from on these remote islands. I am asking you - the Australian people- to feel your hearts and think by your hearts. It is a big moment that you should say no to cruelty, should say no to torture, should say no to the Liberal party. This is a big moment that you should vote against those politicians that forget their heart. This is a big moment that you should choose love and say no to inhumanity, should say not to inhuman policies.

You must read Ben Doherty’s incredibly sad report from Manus and Nauru. He has outlined some reaction to the report. Ben reports:

With conditions in Australia’s offshore detention regime re-emergent at the forefront of political debate, the United Nations children’s agency says neither major political party has a clear plan for refugee children and families held on Nauru, and refugees detained on Manus.

Unicef Australia chief executive, Adrian Graham, said it was “deeply disappointing that ... neither of the major parties have articulated a clear, actionable and sustainable plan that sets out permanent resettlement options for children and their families”.

“A real policy solution is urgently needed. This must include a credible country for resettlement and genuine opportunities for education and livelihoods as well as access to critical services that will help refugees to recover and rebuild their lives.

“It is an outrage that Australia continues to warehouse refugee children on Nauru. As we have seen over and over again, it has devastating impacts and it fails to address the root causes of refugee movements in our region including conflict, persecution and violence.

“The current approach places unfair pressure on our neighbouring country, Nauru. While the Nauruan government is working hard to build a viable child protection system to keep all children safe, in reality this takes considerable time and resourcing to realise. All the while children and their families linger with no clear sense of any future.”

Currently there are 363 people, including 50 children, in the Nauru offshore processing centre, with several hundred refugees living in the community on the island. 905 men are held in the Manus Island detention centre, which was ruled “illegal and unconstitutional” by the PNG court in May.

Updated

The prime minister is coming up in Darwin. He will be handing back the title deeds to the traditional owners for the Kenbi claim, first lodged in 1979.

It has been through two extensive hearings, three federal court reviews, and two high court appeals. The settlement covers most of Cox peninsula, which is located across the harbour from Darwin.

Updated

As far as I could see, there were no questions to the treasurer on the negative gearing report, notwithstanding the fact he was standing in a real estate office with the Liberal member for Bonner, Ross Vasta (margin 3.7%), and a real estate agent.

The questions were on Medicare, the caravan of chaos – a.k.a. Nick Xenophon, Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and anyone else that dare poke an independent head over the parapet.

Updated

There is a little bit of fine print with the negative gearing report. Adept principal Gene Tunny spoke to the Oz:

Mr Tunny said that while his analysis suggested a price fall of 4% compared with analysis by the Grattan Institute of 2% “this would not imply a property market crash’’.

“But it would mean a reduction in value of $15,000 to $20,000 for a $500,000 property, which is not insignificant,’’ the report says.

However he agreed with Grattan Institute findings that there appeared to be little scope for landlords to seek higher rents from tenants to make up for a reduction in tax concessions, due to competition for tenants.

Updated

Morrison is talking about this report on negative gearing, by Sid Maher in the Oz.

Independent modelling of Bill Shorten’s negative gearing and capital gains tax crackdown predicts it will cut housing prices by an average 4% nationwide and property investors would be worse off by $20,000 over a decade on a $500,000 property.

The analysis by Brisbane consultancy Adept Economics warns the impact on inner-city apartments may be greater, at 5% or more, and Labor’s proposed changes come at “a very fraught time’’ for unit markets in capital cities that are facing potential oversupply.

Morrison is in hyperbole overload.

So wilful is that [Labor] ignorance that they refuse to release anything which sets out what the impacts on the property market will be. This is a very sensitive time in our economy. It cannot afford Labor’s housing tax.

Updated

The treasurer, Scott Morrison, is speaking on Labor’s triple threat to the economy.

There is no room for complacency in a market and an economy like we see today.

[Political market.]

Updated

Back to Indi for a minute, where my colleague Gay Alcorn has been tweeting like a bird. The Victorian Liberal president, Michael Kroger, has been giving his views on the contest to make independent Cathy McGowan a one-term wonder.

There have been reports, mine among them, that the Coalition have cut Sophie Mirabella loose. Stuff and nonsense, says Kroger.

Which does not gel with my Coalition sources. But Kroger is sick of these indies and their wicked ways.

The hard thing for the Liberals is Cathy McGowan is well regarded in Canberra as a decent person. There is also a strong section of the Indi community which regards her as an effective member. Thus, the defence: nice person but poor dear doesn’t understand.

Kroger is bullish about Mirabella’s chances, which makes him the only one I have heard.

Updated

#FakeTradie found: fitting and turning votes to the Blues

It had to happen. The Daily Mail has found #Fake Tradie, one Andrew MacRae, brandishing his contracting licence to prove his bonafides.

The Mail reports he’s a ute-driving metal worker and quotes his mate Domenico Coviello.

He’s a real tradie – he’d be a fitter-turner [metalworker] but he’s an all rounder. He’s a good bloke.’

Mr Coviello said the advertisement did look fake.

“He does something in the voice and they’ve dressed him up – he doesn’t normally dress like that.

“It looks very fake – it’s a TV shoot you know, it’s not a real site situation.”

He is a Liberal supporter – as you would expect.

He’s definitely betting for the Blues on the Liberal side.

Updated

One more regional story that is of national interest. The ABC reports that the treasurer, Scott Morrison, has granted the foreign owners of Cubbie Station an extra three years to comply with an original condition of the sale, to sell down its stake from 80% to 51%.

Updated

Intelligent design and Indi

Down south, ABC has been broadcasting on the wireless from Indi.

ABC broadcaster Jon Faine ran a candidate debate last night. The Liberal candidate, Sophie Mirabella, has not been seen much in public since she appeared on the Sky debate, suggesting funding for the Wangaratta hospital had been taken away because she was not returned to office.

In this debate, it was the National party candidate, Marty Corboy, who was in the spotlight. Corboy is a former Family First candidate. He was a little shy on his views on abortion and same-sex marriage, in spite of Faine’s attempts to draw him out.

Here is the Border Mail report:

He said he “would accept the result” if a plebiscite was returned in favour of same-sex marriage, but wanted to make sure others did not have to accept repercussions.

“I would like to see religious organisations protected and also some businesses,” Mr Corboy said.

“There are many instances in America where small business who have had an issue with this have been taken to court.”

Moderator Jon Faine pressed the candidate about whether he meant businesses should be given an exemption to refuse to hire gay and lesbian people.

“No, I think that’s a bit extreme,” Mr Corboy said.

He was also asked about his views on abortion, to which he is opposed. Even in cases of rape, asked Faine?

“I respect life from the moment of conception to natural birth,” he said.

“This is a very, very, very personal issue for me and my family and I’ll leave it at that.”

Mr Corboy also defended his religious views – saying he believed in “intelligent design”, but was not there to know the details – and his family’s decision to home-school their six children.

“There are many choices that parents make when it comes to educating their children,” he said.

“Whatever it may be, I truly believe that parents should have a fair choice on the day-to-day runnings of their family … and good, strong, continuous education.”

It must have been a highlight of the Mirabella campaign.

Updated

A long campaign this, but Bill Shorten appears to be enjoying himself.

Opposition leader Bill Shorten on Nova FM’s morning radio show with Chrissie Swan, Sam Pang and Jonathan Brown.
Opposition leader Bill Shorten on Nova FM’s morning radio show with Chrissie Swan, Sam Pang and Jonathan Brown. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian
Shorten waits for his interview.
Shorten waits for his interview. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian
Bill Shorten.
Bill Shorten. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Bowers and Bill.

Windsor: Malcolm Turnbull used to come and whinge to us about Tony Abbott

Rob Oakeshott called out the scare campaign by the government and the Daily Telegraph on independents and minor parties.

Everyone in politics needs to work with someone else to get things done.

He makes the point that Australia is having an election exactly because people haven’t been working together. (Though there would have been an election in September.) Asked why he left, Oakeshott said:

It was exhausting keeping a parliament on its feet. To keep a parliament to run its full term and get things done, it was exhausting.

On the campaign, Oakeshott said:

There is a lot of Lady Macbeth in politics at the moment. I have never dragged down a first-term PM in Australia. There is not a lot of people in politics ... who can say that.

He said his late entry was in line with his previous seven campaigns.

Oakeshott talked about the dissatisfaction on the ground, which is in line with polling showing 1 in 4 voters are going with someone other than the major parties.

Tony Windsor reckons there is a 50-50 chance there could be a hung parliament:

The way the numbers are, the way Nick Xenophon group is operating in South Australia and there will be a hung Senate anyway.

On Turnbull, Windsor said he had never seen a person with so much political capital in a lifetime and burn it without gain. And then he dropped this little nugget.

Malcolm Turnbull used to come to us in the hung parliament and whinge about Tony Abbott’s performance.

Updated

Good morning on the shortest day in the longest campaign

This morning, on the winter solstice, let’s salute the sun.

That is my nod to the outside world. Now to politics ...

It was an excellent evening of ABC viewing last night. Ben Knight’s Four Corners report on the battle for New England, followed by the sun king himself, Malcolm Turnbull unplugged. I thought Turnbull’s performance was strong, notwithstanding some odd moments but more of that in a minute.

First I want to bring you the independent championship wrestling team of Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor with Fran Kelly this morning.

Specifically, Oakeshott has hit back at claims by Barnaby Joyce that he is running to receive electoral funding.

Here is what Joyce told the Oz:

Asked about Mr Oakeshott’s decision last week to contest Cowper after retiring before the 2013 federal election, Mr Joyce said: “He’s made his mind up at five minutes to midnight. I think we can all smell a rat here.

“I think it’s got something to do with $2.62 a vote for a couple of weeks’ work.”

Candidates running for the House of Representatives who ­receive more than 4% of the vote are entitled to public funding of $2.62 per vote.

Mr Joyce said funding received by Nationals candidates went to the party campaign but Mr Oakeshott stood to gain personally. He said a government controlled by independents risked “chaos’’.

Oakeshott did not spare the buckshot. He characterised Joyce’s accusations.

If you are a man of average means in the suburbs of a regional town then to stand for politics you must have improper motives. That’s the basis of his statement and I fundamentally disagree with that.

Politics has got to be more than the rich talking to the rich about the rich. It’s got to be about more than a couple of suburbs and postcodes in Sydney and Melbourne and I’ll be damned if I’m going to accept an accusation from a party leader who is knee deep in Parakeelia, in tax evasion issues on the Panama Papers with the prime minister, political donations from mining, from gambling and tobacco and an average man from the suburbs isn’t allowed to stand, hey?

People can see it for what it’s worth. A disgusting smear. And a choice to make it about class warfare and I am more than happy to fight Barnaby Joyce and the National party on that topic because I reflect the communities he purports to represent and obviously doesn’t.

Ouch.

I’ll dip into the thread, or talk to me on the Twits @gabriellechan or on Facebook. Onwards and upwards.

Updated

That’s it from me this morning. Gabrielle Chan is taking the chair to lead us through today.

I’ll see you all again tomorrow.

Finally, Shorten is asked what is he going to do about the epidemic of domestic violence in Australia.

He says he made a choice not to go on Triple M radio because of Eddie McGuire’s comments about drowning a female journalist.

Shorten commits Labor to restoring funding cuts to frontline services, bolstering the support within the legal system for victims of domestic violence, and proposing domestic violence leave be available in workplaces.

“It’s not good enough to say we care and then cut the services,” he says.

Bill Shortenis on Nova 100 FM radio in Melbourne.
The hosts really seem to buy the premise of Labor’s negative campaign that the Coalition has plans to “privatise Medicare” (well, at least the payments system).

One asks about her seven-year-old son who is “outraged that Medicare is going anywhere”.

Shorten explains that privatisation means the opposite of the current public system, where healthcare is paid through taxes so you “wouldn’t need to have a lot of money” to see a doctor when you’re sick.

He says privatisation means GPs and medical services have a profit motive, making them the “servant of two masters”, not just the sick.

It’s very soft stuff and nobody challenges Shorten about the evidence for the claims, nor points out that the Coalition has already ruled out privatisation of the Medicare payments system.

Shorten pivots from controversial privatisation claims to the fact the government has frozen indexation of the GP rebate until 2020, and increased costs of tests like mammograms.

After a few questions on the Country Fire Authority dispute (“It’s a state issue, voting for Turnbull doesn’t change anything”) Shorten also digs the steel-capped work health and safety approved-boot into the Liberals’ tradie ads.

“I think fake tradie sums up the Liberal party ... Australians can spot a fake when they see one.” If the tradie is a member of a union, it’s the actors’ union, Shorten says.

Updated

Medicare should serve patients before profits, says Shorten. And there are things he says the Coalition is doing which he finds concerning: setting up a privatisation taskforce, freezing rebates to doctors, and increasing the cost of prescription medicine.

He’s then asked to confirm that “if Medicare goes” some people won’t be able to afford healthcare.

Shorten is getting quite a few free kicks here.

Updated

Tony Windsor is appearing on Radio National at the same time, I’ll bring a catch up of that soon.

“It was his idea, I just have to turn up,” says Shorten apologising “on behalf of the other bloke” about the long election.

The opposition leader is talking on Melbourne’s Nova radio station, and the hosts are asking him about dealing with hecklers on the campaign trail. It’s part of the democratic process, he says. You can’t hide yourself in a bubble.

A selection of today’s front pages, curated by my colleague Dave Early.

Updated

Bill Shorten will shortly appear on Melbourne’s Nova radio station, but not until they’ve gone through some bad Tinder date stories. I’ll bring you the highlights (of the Shorten interview) soon.

Updated

The NT News has warned Turnbull he’ll be walking into a “firestorm” in Darwin today, where ill will towards the scandal-plagued CLP government threatens to rub off on federal candidates.

Remote polling began yesterday in Arnhem Land. Over the next two weeks 38 teams from the Australia electoral commission will visit more than 400 remote communities across the country, setting up polling stations and ensuring everyone who is eligible gets the opportunity to vote.

This report from AAP:

In Bulman, teacher Annette Miller is one of 130 enrolled voters trickling in to the polling centre, and said it’s the same old thing.

“There’s a lot of promises made by both parties, the ALP and CLP,” she told reporters.

“We’re dealing with the number game they play in communities; we’re such a small community and we miss out on a lot of things.”

Bulman sits in the vast seat of Lingiari, held by long-time Labor MP Warren Snowdon, but a protest vote in 2013 as a result of ongoing rebranded intervention policies means the seat is now marginal, and is being challenged by Mataranka pastoralist Tina MacFarlane for the Country Liberals.

But Ms Miller says none of the candidates has visited the community.

Remote polling for the Australian federal election began on Monday 20 June in the Northern Territory’s Arnhem Land.
Remote polling for the Australian federal election began on Monday 20 June in the Northern Territory’s Arnhem Land. Photograph: Wayne Quilliam/Australian Electoral Commission
A voting booth at the Bulgul cattle station in the Northern Territory. Remote polling for the Australian federal election began on Monday 20 June in the Northern Territory’s Arnhem Land.
A voting booth at the Bulgul cattle station in the Northern Territory. Remote polling for the Australian federal election began on Monday 20 June in the Northern Territory’s Arnhem Land. Photograph: Wayne Quilliam/Australian electoral commisison

Australia’s unemployment rate is higher today than when the Liberals won the September 2013 election, writes Stephen Koukoulas.

This is in stark contrast to unemployment trends in every other major industrialised period.

When Labor lost the 2013 election, Australia’s 5.6% unemployment rate was higher in only two countries – Germany and Japan. Now, despite the government’s superficially appealing slogan of “jobs and growth”, joblessness in both the US and the UK has tumbled below that of Australia. In New Zealand, the unemployment rate has fallen by a decent 0.5% to equal Australia’s.

What doe this mean for the Coalition’s “jobs and growth”?

Turnbull said again this morning his party is the only one with a plan. Koukoulas predicts the company tax cuts will have some impact when they take full effect in about a decade, and Labor’s plans for greater education will have larger and longer lasting benefits, but otherwise Australia is treading water.

Looking to another poll for a moment, tourists say they will pack their bags and go elsewhere if bleaching continues on the Great Barrier Reef.

This could lead to a loss of $931m an year, and up to 10,0000 jobs in regional Queensland, the Australia Institute report found.

The majority of Chinese tourists, and about a third of UK and US tourists, said if severe bleaching continues, and “some of the reef dies completely,” they would be more likely to visit somewhere other than Australia.

Read more here.

The Australian Greens will unveil plans for greater protection of Tasmania’s Tarkine wilderness during a visit to the island state by party leader Richard Di Natale, AAP reports.

Ahead of the federal election, the party has drawn up policy designed to make the tracts of cool-temperate rainforest through northwest Tasmania a dedicated protection zone, certified by the United Nations.

Di Natale is expected to visit the Tarkine to make Tuesday’s announcement in the company of Tasmanian senators Nick McKim and Peter Whish-Wilson.

My colleague Michael Slezak reports on some dissatisfaction in the ranks of the clean energy sector.

Yesterday the Coalition announced its renewable energy and “smart cities” policy, funded by the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC). Coupled with the $1bn “reef fund” and other commitments, it amounts to about $2bn of CEFC money, and has prompted accusations the government is defunding it by stealth.

“He’s making a series of announcements where he’s trying to get kudos,” said John Grimes from the Solar Council. “But actually what he’s doing is taking the funding that is essential to push forward the renewable energy projects and help transition the economy, and using them for other purposes.”

Read Michael’s report below.

Good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday. I kicked off yesterday with some Douglas Adams, so today let’s continue with some sage advice in the face of scare campaigns everywhere: Don’t Panic.

What will today be about? Judging by the papers this morning – more Medicare privatisation threats, negative gearing warnings, a little bit of Tony Abbott, and some asylum boat fear.

The big picture

A very ill Turnbull appeared on Q&A last night, flying solo to take questions from the suspiciously Labor policy-informed audience.

Much of it was spent on health and tax and Turnbull continued to assure voters that even if they don’t like how policies like a $50bn corporate tax cut are going, they can vote again in three years.

Following a question from Kurdish Iranian journalist Behrouz Boochani, beamed in from Manus Island, Turnbull was asked a rather simple thing by an audience member.

Will the prime minister visit the centres and see them for himself? Turnbull didn’t answer.

What he did do was to remind everyone of the thousands of deaths at sea that have now stopped, the eagerness of people smugglers to relaunch their business model, the sanctity of Australian borders, and the closure of 14 detention centres.

We have been able to restore order, and people smugglers are “itching to get back in business”, Turnbull said.

Turnbull said Australia had seen no “unlawful arrivals” for well over 660 days – which is not really accurate by the way – and congratulated his immigration minister.

None of us have hearts of stone. All of us understand how harsh our policy is in terms of its impact on particular individuals.

Guardian Australia has investigated a little about the impact of the policy on particular individuals (start with this from yesterday). So have Senate inquiries and independent reviewers.

For a large number of Australians it is possible to be glad there are no more deaths at sea, while also disapprove of the treatment of detainees and secrecy around Australian government policy.

And it shouldn’t be too much to ask that Turnbull, should he become prime minister, go and walk among the consequences.

Q&A also cemented that health – and, it follows, Medicare – remains a key election issue. Labor is unlikely to stop its push for ‘a referendum on Medicare’ come polling day, no matter how many proposals the Coalition rolls back.

It’s still a bit of a mystery whether the idea to outsource the payments system ever went to cabinet. The government says no.

“I’m in cabinet and I can tell you there’s never been a proposal come to cabinet to change the IT arrangements around Medicare ever,” said Christopher Pyne on 7.30 last night.

The question of why the letter was then kept from an FOI release because it was “cabinet in confidence”, will likely continue to bolster the opposition.

The former prime minister Tony Abbott has noticed a “slight sympathy factor” while campaigning in his home seat of Warringah, he’s told the Australian.

“I’ve had detractors as well as supporters,” Abbott said. “I have been seen as a divisive figure, even in the electorate at times, and there seems to be much less of that now than previously.”

He’ll continue to push for “conservative liberal values” within the party, but seemed to rule out making a return as leader.

“The party has well and truly moved on from the Abbott era.”

The Daily Telegraph is citing “the first independent economic modelling” when it splashes that, actually, negative gearing will be terrible for people.

The report says Labor’s policy to scrap negative gearing and halve the capital gains tax discount would result in a drop in investment returns of 10% over 10 years, equating to about $20,000 for the average “mum and dad” investor.

On Q&A Turnbull also addressed the question of a marriage equality plebiscite.

Penny Wong warned late yesterday that a plebiscite on marriage equality could put the issue out of reach in the same way that a referendum put becoming a republic out of reach.

At the moment the Coalition is promising a plebiscite on marriage equality. Labor is promising to legislate for marriage equality if it wins government and drop the plebiscite, warning it could provide a forum for hate speech.

The Greens are also against a plebiscite but neither they or Labor have said whether they would support or block a plebiscite bill.

Speaking of the Greens, Fairfax has tipped a win for them in the seat of Batman. A robocall poll of 1,600 people predicts a win for candidate Alex Bhathal with a primary vote of 41% against incumbent David Feeney’s 28%. Feeney was elected on 41.3%.

In South Australia a Reachtel poll for the CFMEU predicts the Nick Xenophon Team candidate, James Stacey, is in a position to take the South Australian seat of Barker from the Liberal party (based on a two-party preferred vote).

On the campaign trail

Turnbull is in the Northern Territory today, attending the formal return of title deeds to traditional owners of the Kenbi land claim. The claim – over about 52,000 hectares of land on the far side of Darwin harbour – was the longest running official claim, clocking in 37 years before it was officially settled earlier this year.

Shorten is back in Melbourne after spending yesterday in Perth.

The campaign you should be watching

Let’s stick in the territory for the moment. Solomon – the NT’s “city” seat to the rural/outback Lingiari – is on a knife edge.

Incumbent CLP MP Natasha Griggs, who holds the seat with a 1.4% margin, is fighting off Labor candidate Luke Gosling.

Neither have had a great week. Griggs made headlines when protesters filmed themselves heckling her at a market. She didn’t like it, confronted the person filming and *somehow* the phone ended up on the ground.

Gosling for his part, was among the cohort of ex-defence members running for office, who were told off for wearing their uniform in campaign material.

And another thing

Not long ago some comments by Barnaby Joyce connecting the ban on live exports with an increase in asylum seekers on boats from Indoniesa raised eyebrows so far some people pulled muscles.

On a fascinating Four Corners last night, which looked at his battle with Tony Windsor for New England, Joyce was asked about it.

His response was essentially: you can’t win with the media.

“When you are more open, when you do discuss things, you get pilloried for it,” he said.

“When I speak my mind you [the media] ridicule it, and when I speak in the garbled media … rubbish, you say I’m not authentic.”

Updated

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