Night-time politics
Today, there has been a whole lot of speculation.
- Bill Shorten appeared and Malcolm Turnbull did not. The Liberals believe they will get to 76 or 77 seats. Shorten did a victory lap of western Sydney where Labor won a swag of seats. He also said Turnbull should resign.
- Arthur Sinodinos reminded his colleagues via morning radio that the Liberal party is diverse and not owned by one branch. (I’m looking at you, Cory Bernardi.) He said only Turnbull could straddle the small l liberal end and the conservative end.
- Pauline Hanson came out for the first time in an extended press conference. She talked about her policies for a royal commission into Islam and the banks. She said she had a “stop the boat” policy before Abbott. Hanson said the Coalition was not connecting with voters and Malcolm Turnbull was part of the problem due to his large house.
- George Brandis, as leader of the Senate, says he will work with all of the crossbenchers and he has already started making phone calls. Brandis says hundreds of thousands of people voted for Hanson because they share her views. “Of course we will work with her ... The whole genius of parliamentary democracy brings together all the diverse views.”
- Counting will continue in earnest tomorrow. Only teensy bits were done today.
Thanks for your company. I shall wander off into the sunset. Thanks to the brains trust including Katharine Murphy, Gareth Hutchens, Paul Karp, Greg Jericho, Helen Davidson and Calla Walquist.
Goodnight.
Updated
The attorney general, George Brandis, has just done a press conference in Queensland. His message is that the Coalition will respect the verdict of the people and will respect the views of the crossbench. He mentioned Pauline Hanson and Derryn Hinch specifically.
He says the Australian people expect the government will compromise where necessary.
This is the softly-softly message. We are listening. We are ready to govern. We are no longer tribal.
Updated
A Liberal MP has just rung to say they are thinking 76 or 77 seats will go to the Coalition. There still needs to be a speaker out of that.
Updated
Cory Bernardi has been talking to Adelaide radio. Tom McIlroy has a report in the Canberra Times.
“The broader picture and the question we’ve got to ask ourselves is how did we get to a circumstance where we had a significant majority in the House of Representatives and now the best option is perhaps to form minority government,” he said.
“People should examine their conscience, think about their contribution to this disaster and then I would prevail on them to do the right thing.”
He said the campaign team and Mr Turnbull “need to be held to account”.
“I think in the end he should be asking himself if he has done the Liberal party a service or a disservice,” senator Bernardi said.
Updated
Pyne’s hashtag delivers.
#Turnbullwilldeliver an unstable house. #auspol pic.twitter.com/EH5LJvsSz2
— The Matt Hatter (@MattGlassDarkly) July 4, 2016
The people don't want 'jolly japes' from politicians in Canberra. Message is clear - solid, common sense government. #Turnbullwilldeliver
— Christopher Pyne (@cpyne) July 4, 2016
Labor MP Warren Snowdon has dismissed suggestion of a leadership challenge against Bill Shorten, and said the question wouldn’t even come up.
“Bill Shorten will be the leader, there’s no question of that in my mind,” he said. “And he deserves to be.”
The longtime MP was re-elected to his NT seat of Lingiari on an increased margin. He described the election result as a “bugger’s muddle” and said it was the fault of Malcolm Turnbull “exhibiting hubris”.
“Now we’re going to have a Senate that’s got an array of people in it, some of whom are going to be very divisive, and I don’t think that’s in our national interest, particularly,” he told ABC radio this morning.
“That’s all down to a decision taken by this prime minister exhibiting hubris.”
Updated
Here is Joyce on Hanson:
Former QLD senator Barnaby Joyce asked on @abcnewengland about the rise of One Nation: #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/kZALVyaSU4
— Anna Vidot (@AnnaVidot) July 3, 2016
On Pauline Hanson, I notice a reader has suggested I should look away from One Nation lest I give her oxygen, or words to that effect.
This is my view: if we look away from a party which attracted 5.5% of house vote and more than 9% of the Senate in Queensland and fail to understand why so many people are attracted to the messages that Hanson offers, I think the political class (politics and media) are left wanting. As a journalist, I see the job as trying to understand the currents within the community that put the politicians in parliament. If I ignore one chunk of the community, well, watch that chunk grow and distort.
And if journalists yell at her and berate her, Hanson will only become more appealing. Because her voter base likes nothing more than someone we journalists disapprove of.
If you are interested, find a book store and buy Margo Kingston’s book on Hanson called Off the Rails: the Pauline Hanson Trip. It is essential reading for the next phase of Australian politics.
Here is Margo’s latest advice on Twitter:
Mocking, sneering, labelling Hanson INCREASES HER SUPPORT. It seems journos & Greens learned absolutely bloody nothing from her first coming
— Margo Kingston (@margokingston1) July 4, 2016
She is right.
Updated
Bill Shorten on Malcolm Turnbull: he Brexited himself.
Shorten is making the point Turnbull used the Brexit vote to urge Australia to maintain stable government and not change to Labor.
He Brexited himself ... He leads a divided party, he has had an election and he has delivered an inferior and unstable outcome.
Updated
Shorten is asked about the swing towards Labor among non-English-speaking background communities. He points out they were cranky about Peter Dutton’s comments, casting aspersions at migrants. But he also says a policy change on aged pensions had an impact.
This was the change, thanks to the SMH:
Under the change, pensioners who have spent less than 35 years of their working life in Australia will find their pensions reduced after six weeks of overseas travel – down from the current time limit of 26 weeks.
The new rule, which is due to start in January 2017, was announced in the last budget and is yet to pass parliament. It will save about $168m over four years.
Shorten says of that policy and the vote outcome:
In my experience, one thing that ricocheted around migrant communities is that the Turnbull government was determining to change eligibility for the old-age pension. A lot of older migrants that came out here from Europe in the 1960s and 70s, paid their taxes, worked in the factories, raised their kids, they want to go back and spend time in the old country to retire, and under Mr Turnbull’s policy, they can’t spend more than six weeks. I think he paid a price for that.
Updated
Bill Shorten calls on Malcolm Turnbull to quit
Shorten says he is ready to be constructive in the parliament but then warms up to call on Turnbull to quit.
Mr Turnbull proposed Senate reform. He has made a bad situation worse. How on earth did Mr Turnbull think that an idea of reform could end up with two or three One Nation senators in the Senate? This is farcical. Mr Turnbull clearly doesn’t know what he is doing. Frankly I think he should quit. He has taken this nation to an election on the basis of stability. He has delivered instability. His own party knows he is not up to the job, the Australian people know he is out of touch, and he has given a Senate reform which involves two or three One Nation senators. The bloke is not up to the job.
Updated
Bill Shorten: we will work with the Liberals
Bill Shorten on negotiating with crossbenches.
I’m interested in making the 45th parliament work. For me, stability isn’t something you promise on a Saturday and forget on a Monday ... We have a very clear policy platform and set of principles. We will work with the Liberals, we will work with the crossbenchers and the minor parties, because this country and this parliament is too important to fall foul of needless partisanship. But we won’t compromise our principles and policies program.
Updated
Bill Shorten: I will push for banking royal commission
Bill Shorten says he is thanking the people of western Sydney. He says the Liberals are a divided rabble and Labor is ready to govern. Shorthand.
He will still push for a banking royal commission.
Labor will not be deterred by Business Council advertising campaigns; we will not be deterred by Malcolm Turnbull’s trenchant defence of the banks. Nothing more than a royal commission into the Australian banking and financial systems will suffice and it doesn’t matter if we don’t fall across the line and form a government. We are the opposition; we would be prosecuting the case.
Updated
David Johnston: we are light years away from relating to people at the mo
The former Liberal defence minister David Johnston – the fellow so complimentary of the ASC – has had a spray on ABC Perth.
He is not happy with the leadership or the Liberal party campaign.
Choice quotes via Andrew Burrell at the Australian:
- “This was a shocking campaign.”
- “We are light years away from relating to people at the moment.”
- “We did not fire any of the ammunition we have.”
- “The union movement is out of control, we never mentioned it. There’s 100 people from the CFMEU in court.”
- “I was tearing my hair out – jobs and growth. It’s a bit trite.”
- “You have got to engage people and you have got to get down on the ground and be a little bit humble and we are losing that a little bit I think.”
- “I would be much more ... unhappy today if we had gone with the previous leader.”
Updated
Still campaigning, nine weeks down the track.
Smiling like winners.
Although the Coalition appears more likely to form government, the body language of Labor is that of victory. A bit like the speeches on the night.
Updated
Pauline Hanson shouts out to George Christensen
I cannot look away from Pauline Hanson’s press conference.
Q: How could an entire sector of the Australian population not be somewhat offended when you’re saying their religion is not a religion, it is a political ideology and you’re saying if you’re Muslim you shouldn’t come here and we shouldn’t let you in and welfare checks should only apply to you. How can they not feel offended and marginalised by that?
I’m not going to back down on what I believe and what a lot of Australians believe and feel as well. We’ve seen the problems that’s happened in other countries and I do not want that to happen here because I don’t want to offend anyone. I feel offended and even – you know, two of our former prime ministers, whether it be Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard, said they find the burqa confronting, as do many Australians.
Q: Do you think you’re the only one with the guts in parliament to speak out and say this and other people support you?
I do believe that. I think George Christensen has also come out and made some comments and I think he is but they’re stifled by their political parties. All I’m saying is let’s have an open mind, let’s have a debate about it. That’s why I’m wanting this inquiry into it. People find it offensive and I’m not preaching the hate.
Updated
There is now a crush at a shopping centre in Lindsay around Shorten and Emma Husar, triumphant Labor MP in Lindsay.
NB: This post has been edited to remove the scrambled analysis on bellwethers. Lindsay and Eden-Monaro cannot be given titles until a government is formed.
Updated
Everyone wants a date with Nick Xenophon. The South Australian premier, Jay Weatherill, is speaking with the Xen Master. I missed the beginning but Weatherill and Nick are teaming up to get something happening with Arrium. Weatherill is asked if he is a bit cynical, given Labor (and Liberal) attacks on NXT.
Politicians have to get themselves in sync with that perspective.
The premier was just making sure Nick was across his perspective ahead of any deals.
Labor offered $100m, half of which would be distributed through a new “steel reserve” in direct grants, with the other $50 million in “financing or loan guarantees”.
The Coalition offered $100m through loans from the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation.
Updated
There is a statement from Sophie Mirabella, reported in the Wangaratta Chronicle, about Cathy McGowan’s win in Indi.
I wish her well for the future,” she said.
But she claimed that for the past three years McGowan had “protested that you are not a surrogate for the Labor party”.
“In this next parliament you actually have a chance to prove it,” Mirabella said.
#youknowitmakessense
Updated
Bill Shorten has been out in western Sydney thanking candidates. He is expected to pop up for the press conference shortly.
Natasha Griggs and the changing effect of the Giles government
The Northern Territory chief minister, Adam Giles, is defending his government from accusations it is to blame for Coalition losses.
Natasha Griggs is set to be ousted by Labor’s Luke Gosling, with a primary swing against her of more than 10%. Griggs – who also faced local dissatisfaction for delays and unmet commitments – has made no secret of the belief she was also battling guilt by association to the CLP government and its “shenanigans”.
Neither she nor the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, sought to defend the Giles-led parliament during the campaign. Griggs has said the CLP is in serious trouble and there is “no way” the party can win the Northern Territory election in August.
On Sunday Giles pointed to Labor scare campaigns and large swings across the country, but also conceded people had “had a gutful” of politicians misbehaving, and singled out the scandal around Nathan Barrett – a minister who sent videos of himself masturbating to a female constituent he said he was in a relationship with – and said that it surfaced at a crucial time and “changed people’s votes”.
However, on Monday morning Giles walked back from his comments slightly, and said Griggs had been “wrong” to blame the NT government, and it was a range of factors which “affected the political outcome right across the country”.
“And I’ve got to say, in the seat of Solomon … it’s far less than some of the swings of about 14.5% seen around other parts the country,” he told the ABC. “I think you need to take on local issues, but you also need to take on federal issues, and you need to have a good look at the lies the Labor party told in regards to Medicare.”
He said he wouldn’t pass comment on whether Griggs failed Solomon: “I think she’s done a very good job for the last six years.”
Updated
There was a lot in that, especially a lot around her views on Islam. There was a lot of sparring with journalists, who were keen to tease policy detail to their logical conclusions. She was quite defensive and the journalists were very pointed in their questions. This was an example of an exchange on Islam.
Q: One of your policy documents says that Islam has no place in Australia if we’re to live in a cohesive society.
You love your Islam bit, don’t you?
Q: Not necessarily. I’m reading from your policies and quoting it to you.
Fine. What do you have a problem with? A lot of countries around the world don’t want Islam. We pull back.
Q: How?
Everyone must be treated equally in Australia.
Q: How would you determine who is Muslim and how would they have to prove it?
You can’t deport the Muslims that are here and, look, I’ve spoken to Muslims, I think I’ve got a couple of Muslims who are members of my party actually and ...
Q: So you’d allow them to stay or how would that work?
Don’t take me out of context what I’m saying here at all. It is that you have our values, our culture and our way of life, that’s in Australia. You don’t have a full burqa. That’s been proven in other countries around the world that have banned the burqa in government areas, schools and educational places. You don’t keep putting up mosques and it’s not me, it’s our society that are on the streets protesting against the building of mosques. Why? Because they see the repercussions happening in their own communities and own areas.
Updated
Q to Hanson: Do you think that’s where a lot of your support came from, people seriously worried about their employment prospects? You garnered lot of support in the Wide Bay region. Do you think that was one of the reasons?
Jobs is basically the issue with most Australians. Doesn’t matter where you go in this country. And I think that another big issue is the sale of our land and assets to foreign ownership. The government has to stop that.
Updated
Hanson revisionism: my Asian comments were taken out of context
Q: In 1996, in your maiden speech, you said Australia was at risk of being swamped by Asians.
I said it was in danger of being swamped by Asians.
Q: How’s that gone?
You go and ask a lot of people in Sydney, at Hurstville or some of the other suburbs. They feel they have been swamped by Asians and regardless of that now, a lot of Australians feel that Asians are buying up prime agricultural land, housing. You ask people in Melbourne how they feel about it as well. Look, we can go on and on about this topic and I was taken completely out of context and when I said that in my maiden speech it was to draw attention to our immigration.
Q: You just said it again.
At that time, what happened was we had a high intake of Asians and a lot were coming via New Zealand. I was drawing attention to the figures. We had to address it, to pull it back. And apparentlyJohn Howard did change the immigration policy and reduced it from 150,000 down to 75,000 so that was a win and he took up a lot of my policies.
Updated
Hanson is asked about Richard Di Natale’s criticism of her.
I think Richard Di Natale needs to look at the word racist and what it means. There is nothing racist in it. I have the right to an opinion, as he has. What I’m saying is let’s get back to the Australia where we as a nation had a right to have an opinion and have a say.
Updated
There is a whole lot more in Hanson’s press conference. Bear with me – picking through it.
Updated
Pauline Hanson claims four senators: two Queensland, one NSW and one Western Australia
I should qualify that. The count has not been finished. That is Hanson’s estimate and she says it could go as high as six.
Hanson also wants a referendum on marriage equality rather than a plebiscite so “the people” can do it.
Updated
Pauline Hanson: unity without the Racial Discrimination Act
How do you think it will go, you calling for unity when you want to abolish the Racial Discrimination Act?
Isn’t it funny? Even senator George Brandis called for abolishing the Racial Discrimination Act and I believe that Tony Abbott would have liked to abolish it ...
We are entitled to freedom of speech and freedom of expression. As long as it’s not out to incite hatred or violence. So by having this, it is stifling people’s right to have an opinion. I think we are mature enough in Australia that if anyone comes out and says anything that is offensive the general public will have their say as they have done.
(Brandis called for changes to one section, 18C).
Updated
Hanson: I was responsible for stopping the boats
Hanson is asked whether she will adopt Abbott’s agenda.
It’s always been my stance even from the Tampa, and John Howard actually did do it and stopped the boats in 1998 because of the support that One Nation was getting, and he knew he had to pull back those voters. That’s why he took the stance against stopping the boats.
Updated
Hanson says she benefited from Abbott supporters
Do you think that you’ve benefited from an anti-Turnbull vote here – those that couldn’t vote for Tony Abbott perhaps have chosen you instead?
Most definitely. That would have been part of it as well. They have no confidence in Malcolm Turnbull. They don’t believe that Malcolm Turnbull is connected with the grassroots Australians. He lives in his multimillion-dollar house, he has no understanding of the struggles that people have ... This whole campaign as I travelled throughout Queensland – and I went to areas and people were saying, ‘We never see anyone here. We don’t see any senators, we don’t see anyone. No one seems to care about us.’ That’s all they want. They want connection.
Updated
Pauline Hanson: a royal commission into banking first
Pauline Hanson says she still supports a royal commission into Islam but wants one on the banks first. (Labor and the Greens support a banking royal commission.)
I think that there are many other issues, and I’m not just on about Islam and I will not back away from that, but I think there are more important issues here and I’d like first a royal commission into the banking and finance sector.
Updated
Hanson says George Brandis has tried to call her. She names “cleaning up” the Family Law Act and child support as her priorities.
It disturbs me greatly to see so many fathers and women that are actually mothers who are suiciding. When I was in parliament, this was the biggest issue coming across any member of parliament’s desk and yet nothing has changed – if its not worse. It’s an absolute disgrace.
Updated
Pauline Hanson: I don't like Turnbull or Shorten for PM
Pauline Hanson: Who will you choose?
To tell you the truth, I don’t particularly like either one of them as the prime minister of this country. I don’t believe they have the leadership or the vision to pull this country out of the mess that we are in. But if either one of them are going to be the prime minister, I am quite happy to work with them and I think that we, as the leaders of this nation and the representatives for the people, need to pull together in unity. The people are fed up with seeing a dysfunctional parliament and the antics that goes on is not what the people want or need. I know they have all said that they won’t work with me or I’m not welcome in parliament. I am entitled to my seat as much as any other elected member of parliament so if it’s going to take a bit of maturity here then I will lead the way to try and pull everyone together to work for the people because we are the servants of the people.
Updated
Pauline Hanson: reflect on this, pollies
Hanson is speaking in Queensland about her vote, pointing to her vote of 20% plus in some seats.
We’re basically third in place on the primary vote.
Listen up, politicians.
What I’ll say to the major political parties: reflect on this, have a look at the vote I’ve pulled and it will tell them they are clearly out of touch with the Australian people and there is a lot of work that needs to be done.
Updated
These are the Australian Electoral Commission seats as updated. The table is from Nick Evershed.
A number of commentators have made the point that, given the result, the budget is toast. The Man had the economic plan and the economic plan was rejected.
Our own Greg Jericho makes this point:
It is entirely apt given the government used the budget as its de facto election campaign launch that we now find after the election result that the budget is completely trashed.
Launching the campaign so closely after the budget meant none of the key measures contained in it have been presented before parliament. That budget included a large number of spending cuts which failed to get through the old parliament; they have even less of a chance now. In the old parliament, the issue was merely the Senate, now there is a strong possibility the cuts wouldn’t even pass the lower house.
The Coalition might be able to get the numbers to stay in government but not to keep its budget.
Laura Tingle of the Fin makes the point the budget “may never be passed”. She goes to the pointy end of Turnbull’s future.
Turnbull’s authority – within his own party, within the House of Representatives and with the Senate – is now shattered.
There is no immediate talk of him either resigning or being challenged (in fact, just who would challenge him is unclear).
Presuming, however, he has a chance of forming a wafer-thin majority government, he now faces what is the first really big question thrown up by Saturday’s result: does he simply roll over to the conservatives in his party in an attempt at appeasement, and rewrite his policy platform, or does he dare them to take him on, hold on to key policies and seek to slowly drag the party to the centre? If he is in a minority position, he will need to get support from the crossbench in the House.
Updated
There are no pics of Bill Shorten yet but I missed this wonderful picture of his family yesterday from Lisa Maree Williams. It is a long campaign for the pollies but even longer for the families.
Updated
Caught on the hop.
Compose thyself.
Release the charm.
The eagle-eyed readers have alerted me to the Australian Electoral Commission’s updates in some seats. Data whiz editor Nick Evershed is going through the numbers now. You can see from this link if you scroll down to the second list, the date stamps are for Monday. As far as I can see they are not highly contentious seats apart from Robertson, where the Liberal MP, Lucy Wicks, is just ahead of Labor’s Anne Charlton.
Updated
Andrew Bolt is trying to get a petition together on his Herald Sun blog.
You destroyed a prime minister – a good man – who’d won in a landslide.
You then turned the Liberals into Labor-lite.
You promised more taxes and debt.
You asked for no mandate for reform.
You changed the Senate voting rules to hand the left control for generations.
You spurned the Liberal base.
You smashed super savings with a giant new tax.
You called colonial settlement an “invasion” and held an Iftar dinner with known hate-preachers.
You preached global warming and same-sex marriage.
You split the party.
You led the Liberals to humiliation at the polls.
You have since blamed everyone but yourself.
You cannot heal the party.
Please resign.
This appeal is signed by the people below:
Discuss.
Updated
Matt Hatter, I love youse.
This is a visual reconstruction of the aforementioned Three Amigos of Tassie.
Politics Live with @gabriellechan; Abetz's amigos, La Bernardi & Nikolic goes nuts. #auspol https://t.co/8OA0jh0dQr pic.twitter.com/DIaGxxjKE6
— The Matt Hatter (@MattGlassDarkly) July 4, 2016
Mike Baird: we state Libs are working really hard for you FYI
Everywhere, political leaders are picking through the entrails to work out what it means for them. Every election has lessons and if you are a politician, that means enough about you dear voter - what does it mean for me?
NSW premier, Mike Baird thinks there is an important message in there.
I think the important message, and really it’s the only message to me that comes out and that should resonate deeply for anyone that’s in government or aspiring to be in government.
And that is you can never ever take any votes or any communities for granted. You have to work hard and I think the focus of any government has to be about ensuring the policies that you are pursuing, you’re going to make a difference to people in the short, medium and long term and go very heartily towards that.
Every single day is an opportunity to do that and I think good policy wins through and ultimately what your job is, is to deliver that. So I certainly think that the lesson that I take out, and it is a reminder again and again, never take any vote, any seats, any communities for granted, you have to work hard and certainly that’s what I tend to do, to double down our efforts to continue to do everything we can, not just in western Sydney but from one end of NSW to the other and my encouragement is to look at the roads that are being built, the hospitals, the schools, the public transport, all of those will make a significant difference but we have to work harder and we will continue to do that.
If you look at the map of Sydney, it will explain Baird’s comments better than I. The west is a sea of red - seats which have swung from Liberals to Labor. Baird’s simple message is: I hear you.
Big and small business are not happy campers.
My colleague Gareth Hutchens has written a piece on business confidence.
Australia’s big business groups are lamenting the outcome of the federal election and economists say it has increased the risk of a sovereign credit rating downgrade, no matter who forms government.
The AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver warned his clients that the clear air the Turnbull government had been hoping to capture by winning a strong majority would not eventuate. The prospects were not good for Australia’s economy, he warned.
“The prospect of another three years of de facto minority government coming on the back of the minority Gillard/Rudd government over 2010-13, and the 2013-16 Coalition government’s inability to pass much of its economic and budget reform agenda through the Senate, is not a good outcome for the Australian economy,” he said.
You may have registered the “three amigos”, as Eric Abetz fondly calls them, were turfed from Tassie. They were Andrew Nikolic in Bass, Brett Whiteley of Braddon and and Eric Hutchinson of Lyons. Nikolic has flipped on Facebook.
THIS IS WHAT DISHONESTY LOOKS LIKE - GETUP SPENT $500,000 AND IMPORTED 90 ACTIVISTS INTO BASS
This ABC article reveals the estraordinary [sic] lengths GetUp, the unions, and Labor went to in running a dishonest, nasty, personal campaign in Bass, built around the core lie of Medicare privatisastion [sic].
GetUp’s Paul Oosting (formally of the Greens Party and Wilderness Society), says their exit polling reveals 11% of people were influenced by their false how to vote cards - about the size of the swing in Bass.
It’s sad to think that this sort of dishonest campaigning approach works in our country!
Some further points on the broad church that is the Liberal party. You need to be up on this story first, by Katharine Murphy. The “he” that follows is Cory Bernardi:
But he said the Coalition needed to regroup from the voter backlash delivered at the weekend by sending a clear signal the party was interested in mainstream values and preoccupations and not captured by “fringe issues”.
He said the party needed to stand up on core issues such as lower taxation and expenditure, culture and sovereignty and “not get sidetracked by trendy issues”.
Bernardi said a conservative revolution was required within the Liberal party to reset the broad policy direction “and if we don’t do that we’ve got a taste of the revolution waiting for us outside”.
“I’m saddened it’s come to this but I’ve tried to make clear the consequences of abandoning our core philosophy in favour of self-interest,” he said. “You can only kick people in the face so many times.”
He also said it was “folly” for the Liberal party to approach the election thinking there were no consequences for deposing a first-term prime minister.
I have a completely different take on the outcome. I think the result was so close because voters were underwhelmed and disenfranchised. They were not frightened of the prospect of instability because they did not believe the alternatives were that much better. Nick Xenophon dressed as a boogeyman is just not that scary.
-
The stability argument did not cut it. The evil Labor-Green-independent alliance of 2010-13 got some big reforms through. The emissions trading scheme, the Gonski education reforms, the national broadband network, the water trigger. (All of these were undermined by the Coalition government.)
- Malcolm Turnbull trashed his own brand. He abandoned the progressive positions he was most known for. At the height of his popularity, he was most known for niggling Tony Abbott on marriage equality, climate change, among other things.
- The conservative foundation of the Liberal party was never so conservative. The idea that the Liberal party was ever as conservative as Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz and Cory Bernardi is a fiction. Why? The Menzies government. The Fraser government. Even the Howard government was not AS tribal, though he marginalised the small l Libs.
I spoke to Liberals on Sunday morning who said we have to start talking about “quality of life” issues more. Read health and education.
Updated
Some thoughts from the Sinodinos intervention, given he is a reflection of the thoughts and tactics inside the Turnbull camp. Their pitch is:
- Turnbull can straddle the divide in the broad church that is the Liberal party.
- Pauline Hanson is back in the parliament, probs not best to go back to Abbott given the negotiation skills required and the Abbott-Hanson history.
- Turnbull has the temperament for negotiating with the crossbench.
Updated
Melissa Davey has pointed me to this from the wires.
The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, says he has yet to talk to Bill Shorten, two days on from the election.
Andrews maintains the controversial CFA pay deal did not hurt the Labor vote in Victoria and says he hasn’t been able to speak to the federal Labor leader.
We’re playing phone tag, he’s got a lot of crossbenchers to talk to. I look forward to speaking to him probably later on today.
There is no question that the argument between the Country Fire Authority volunteers and the United Firefighters Union was difficult for Labor. There were CFA volunteers on booths campaigning against Labor.
Updated
This reader makes a good point.
No such thing as a 'hung parliament'. Parliament still retains its capacity to function. It's a 'hung party system'. Words matters #ausvotes
— ReviewAustFiction (@AustFiction) July 2, 2016
The other interesting element from Arthur Sinodinos is a question on Pauline Hanson’s re-entry to the Australian political scene. Sinodinos was close enough to John Howard in 1996-98 when they were hit by the Hanson train. Their view at the time was to keep quiet so they they did not further upset people who found some comfort with Hanson. Howard got a lot of stick for that strategy. At the same time though, there was one in the Liberal party running an insurgency against Hanson – that was one Tony Abbott.
Don’t forget Tony Abbott was one of the people who helped to deal with One Nation some years ago when she was previously a force through some of the work he did on her campaign.
Back then Abbott was involved in a slush fund to bring down One Nation – a claim he denied to Four Corners. When caught out, he famously said:
Misleading the ABC is not quite the same as misleading the Parliament as a political crime.
Updated
Back to Sinodinos:
It’s good to have postmortems ... we have to work through the issues and figure out how is we prosecute the very values and the very policies that we all, as Liberals, stand for because we’re all members of the one team. The things that unite us are bigger than the things that divide us.
Fran asks, why does Malcolm Turnbull deserve to lead the Liberal party?
I think he still has the vision, I think he still has the policies that are right for Australia in the 21st century. I think that is a very important thing to focus on and the challenge over the next three years is for us to find a way to square the circle, the parliament that the people have given us, in order to prosecute the case of how we advance the country’s interest.
He makes the point that the parliament has to protect the economy and grow it, and fix the debt because if the economy tanks it hurts the most vulnerable.
Updated
Shorten: let's see who gets elected first.
Bill Shorten has been collared on his run, wearing a North Queensland Cowboys T-shirt. (Thanks Townsville. So long, Liberals’ Ewen Jones. Thanks for the memories.)
Are you feeling confident?
The people have spoken, we have to see how the votes get counted but I’m determined for Labor to be positive no matter what happens.
How are you getting time for a run? Are you on the phone all the time?
No phones. Great way to start the day, a run, clears the head.
What’s the day got ahead for you?
I’m off to western Sydney to thank the people of western Sydney for showing such renewed confidence in Labor.
Can Labor form a government?
If we get enough seats we certainly can. We are determined to stick to our word. We have a positive agenda on jobs, education and Medicare. We have the best platform of any of the parties in the 45th parliament, we will seek to build support for our great, positive ideas.
Can you work Pauline Hanson and Derryn Hinch?
Let’s see who gets elected first.
Updated
Sinodinos' note to conservatives: Liberal party is not owned by any one branch
Sinodinos is asked about Turnbull’s pitch to the independents. He says single issues have to be part of a whole strategy. The Coalition would be happy to talk about that.
Fran Kelly raises Cory Bernardi’s assessment that the election result was a feature of the contempt for the conservative base that has been a foundation of the Liberal party.
It’s natural that, after an election, people will come out and say all sorts of things, says Sinodinos.
The important thing is for us to form a government and then to sit down in the party room, work out our strategy for the next three years and go from there and everyone will be given the opportunity. Malcolm Turnbull is a leader who is prepared to straddle the conservative and the Liberal spans of the Liberal party. You have to remember that the base of the Liberal party is quite diverse. It’s not owned by any one branch or section. That is the important thing ... John Howard was exactly the same as leader and Tony Abbott was the same.
Updated
We have to respect everyone who has been voted into the House of Reps and the Senate, says Sinodinos. Sinodinos says talking and respecting – Malcolm is good at that.
I think he has the temperament for it.
Translation for conservatives: A minority government is better in the hands of Turnbull than Tony Abbott. Get a grip.
Updated
Sinodinos: jaw jaw is better than war war
Loyal Turnbull lieutenant Arthur Sinodinos is urging calm. All parties need to talk.
We on all sides have to work with the parliament the Australian people have delivered.
So that means we have to have a dialogue. The prime minister has started by talking to the crossbenchers. I note Mr Shorten is doing the same thing.
Jaw jaw is better than war war.
Plibersek goes back to the agendas of the major parties: the corporate tax cuts versus spending on health and education “which will pay dividends” down the track. She is asked about Turnbull’s accusation of the scare campaign on Medicare (texts on Medicare have been referred to the police).
That was the most acute example of sour grapes I have ever seen.
Updated
Plibersek is asked if it is a hung parliament, would you rather leave Malcolm Turnbull to the difficulties of it?
You know what, it’s too important for that.
Updated
Labor’s deputy leader, Tanya Plibersek, is speaking to Fran Kelly. She is defending Labor’s primary vote, which, at this stage, sits at 35.3%, a swing of almost 2%.
Plibersek says that is the modern political situation and quickly flicks the switch to the leadership problems within the Liberal party.
She confirms Labor will not countenance forming minority government with the Greens.
Updated
Good morning, welcome to the new parliament
I am delighted to take over this blog project. From this time forth, Katharine Murphy is political editor and Lenore Taylor takes up her post as Guardian Australia’s editor in two weeks’ time.
Murph is, no doubt, irreplaceable. But I can only do my own thing. Let’s get on with it.
If you were with us over the weekend, you will know the state of play. If you were caving or just down a very deep well, we are staring down the barrel of a hung parliament. I am not going to confuse you with numbers at this stage, suffice to say they are very close. Calla Wahlquist has a good state-by-state rundown of where the numbers are at.
Best-case scenario for Malcolm Turnbull is a majority as thin as a jockey’s whip. Worst-case scenario for him is a hung parliament. What is without doubt is the Senate is again hung, with a greater degree of difficulty. Nick Xenophon will have three or four colleagues. Pauline Hanson will have a number of colleagues. Journalist and campaigner Derryn Hinch is in there, Jacqui Lambie is back. Family First senator Bob Day is hanging by a thread. Glenn Lazarus is out, as are Ricky Muir and John Madigan.
Andrew Wilkie, Cathy McGowan, Greens MP Adam Bandt, Bob Katter and NXT’s Rebekha Sharkie will be on the lower-house crossbench. Wilkie and McGowan are speaking to Fran Kelly.
Wilkie says he would sit and listen to the entire debate before voting, if there was a vote of confidence.
I would add to my sense of the community views ... Some people will say that is unstable but stability is borne of consistency.
Wilkie again.
Neither the Labor party or the Liberal party have a God-given right to rule.
Wilkie says he will decide who is fit to govern and who is likely to form stable and effective government for the next three years.
I don’t think Malcolm Turnbull has a mandate on what he took to the election.
Cathy McGowan also will not pick a side at this stage. She says she will be taking the values from her electorate and applying it to the parliament. McGowan makes the point that people have lost trust in the system, they want to be treated intelligently and it is time politicians started acknowledging people are aware of what is going on.
There is enormous disappointment with the way the government has been working.
She says people “absolutely want me to work with government to bring in very good legislation”.
The Liberals might be regretting some of the campaigning against McGowan, who said she was not happy with “the personal attacks against me”.
McGowan also mentions the “political involvement of the Country Fire Authority” and then goes on to talk about the CFA being very unhappy. That is slightly confusing so I will pursue that point if I can get a phone call in to McGowan.
Wilkie is asked about the Medicare campaign and he says “Labor overreached with the idea of selling Medicare”.
Labor should have focused on the facts at hand. Medicare has been under attack from the Abbott-Turnbull government. That’s where I focused and that’s where I got a lot of traction.
There are reports that Bill Shorten has called a meeting of Labor MPs this afternoon. I will try to confirm this.
So strap yourself in and party like it’s 2010. I am on the twits @gabriellechan or at Facebook. In the thread, keep it nice.
Updated
