I've got a podcast to record!
Now, like the good birds, I must fly. Thank you very much for your company today. Let’s follow our tradition and take stock of Thursday.
The prime minister made his final pitch at the National Press Club with the confident delivery of a politician who thinks Saturday night is going to be a good night for the Coalition. Never mind that a radio host earlier in the day told Malcolm Turnbull he’d better win comprehensively otherwise colleagues would have him for Sunday brunch. Details, details.
The opposition leader hit the hustings in Brisbane to declare that Labor was ready to govern. Bill Shorten shrugged off questions about post election scenarios that would see him lose the Labor leadership and said he would fight for every last vote until 6pm on Saturday night.
Greens leader Richard Di Natale finally delivered a straight answer about whether the Greens would negotiate with Labor on offshore processing in the event of a hung parliament. No, the Greens would not negotiate was the answer (which followed a suggestion yesterday that they might).
The end is in sight. We will be back with the live coverage from first light tomorrow. Until then, go with your God, and have a hot whiskey.
Hey, presto
From the newswire service AAP.
Clive Palmer insists his announcement just days before the federal election that his collapsed Queensland Nickel refinery will reopen isn’t a political ploy to attract votes for his party. The Palmer United Party (PUP) leader, flanked by two Senate candidates and surrounded by party branding, revealed on Thursday the Yabulu refinery, near Townsville, would reopen on March 31 after regulatory and commercial requirements were met.
Palmer claimed he called the press conference to discuss Labor leadership rumblings, despite his media team earlier advising it was about the refinery reopening and a press release handed to journalists upon arrival indicating the same thing. “My speech was about politics, it wasn’t about the refinery,” he said.
Palmer insisted it was “purely a coincidence” that he made the announcement two days before Australians go to the polls. “It’s not of concern to me, because I’m not in politics - I’m in business. I’m more concerned about business,” he said.
Palmer, who isn’t recontesting his seat of Fairfax but will stay on as PUP chairman, has a history of outrageous political statements during election campaigns. In 2012 he claimed the Greens were conspiring with the CIA against Australia’s resources industry, only to later admit he didn’t believe those claims but said them to help the Liberal National Party get elected in Queensland. When that was put to him, Mr Palmer reiterated his announcement wasn’t “a political thing”. His party is running candidates only for the Senate and the lower house seat of Herbert, where the refinery is. Palmer said an increase in world nickel prices had made production feasible again.
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Who needs internet in an election campaign?
From tricky to bloody difficult. I gather there’s been a significant Telstra outage in Victoria today, leaving various campaigns in the state without reliable internet access within 48 hours of polling day.
Obviously an internet outage is an equal opportunity problem impacting all campaigns, whatever their stripe: Coalition, Labor, Greens, others – but of course Melbourne is the home of Labor’s CHQ.
We could make an NBN joke but that might be unseemly.
I hope you aren't being tricky on IR Malcolm: ACTU
I’ve said quite a few times that it’s seriously odd that we’ve seen no comprehensive industrial relations policy from the Coalition (or from Labor) in this campaign, given whole campaigns have been fought over IR in my reporting lifetime. The ACTU smells a rat.
ACTU secretary Dave Oliver.
Despite subjecting Australia to a record-length election campaign, Malcolm Turnbull has not offered any long term vision for job creation or industrial relations and has instead left the door open to further attacks on worker’s rights. This is a critical failure of policy and leadership and leaves a re-elected Liberal government with absolutely no mandate to implement the kind of anti-worker reforms that so many of their big business backers have been demanding, such as weakening unfair dismissal laws or the introduction of individual contracts. Malcolm Turnbull’s silence can only be interpreted as a sign he is not planning any significant changes to industrial relations should he win on Saturday – anything else would represent a massive breach of trust with the Australian people.
A little jewel of frustration from Greg Jericho
One of the problems with an election campaign is whenever talk turns to fragility in the economy the solution presented is always one of stability. The government has sought to present itself as stable (after all, it has nearly been a year since it has changed its leader and treasurer), while the ALP sought to present itself as the stable party, given its role during the global financial crisis.
And yet both sides were not all that eager to talk about what they would actually do were mere stability not enough to prevent an economic downturn.
The lack of eagerness to talk about what they would do is a consequence of the relentless criticism by the Liberal party and sections of the media of the stimulus measures put in place by Labor during the financial crisis, and also the Labor party’s complete inability to use the crisis to challenge the myth that a budget surplus is prime evidence of good economic management.
Last Friday, when he rushed with barely disguised joy to speak on ABC’s 7:30 about the impact of the Brexit vote, Malcolm Turnbull dismissed once again the measures undertaken by the Rudd government during the global financial crisis.
He told Leigh Sales, that “I think what shepherded Australia through the GFC successfully was the Chinese stimulus and the large amount of cash that John Howard left in the bank”.
It requires an odd sense of logic to suggest that the stimulus measures here didn’t work, but that the Chinese ones did. It also is a tad odd to suggest the “large amount of cash” helped get us through the global financial crisis.
Having a surplus does not actually do anything to spur economic growth, it is what you spend the money on that does it. Arguing the surplus got us through the GFC but the stimulus didn’t is a bit like arguing that what brings a smile to your children’s faces on Christmas morning is not the presents you have bought them but the money that was in the bank you had saved in order to buy the presents.
Had the stimulus measures been poorly targeted, no amount of surplus would have helped. And the reality is the stimulus measures worked pretty much as they were expected to.
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My colleague Gay Alcorn has written a piece this afternoon about the CFA dispute in Victoria, which you can read here. If you just want the quick version.
If Labor loses this election, especially by a narrow margin, there will be the usual post mortems and blame thrown around. Was it the national campaign office? Was it leader Bill Shorten? Was it the policy mix, or a weakness in the strategy to win crucial marginal seats?
What would have seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago may be another question tossed into the mix: Was it Daniel Andrews, the Labor hero who defeated a first term conservative government in 2014 to lead the most progressive state in the country?
Wouldn’t it be astonishing if the issue that damaged Labor was related to the one that prime minister Malcolm Turnbull used as an excuse to call this double dissolution election – the conduct of some unions? The political purpose beyond that election trigger was the suggestion that Labor was beholden to unions to the detriment of the broader community – the precise allegation against Andrews.
And it would be the final irony if Shorten – the former union leader who has said that what he learned from that job was to be a conciliator, to get people into a room to solve problems and find consensus – was undermined by Andrews who so mucked up the handling of a union issue.
I am multi-tasking a little bit right now, just preparing to record our last podcast episode of the campaign. Incredible really, now I know we are nearly there. A couple of things about our podcast, Australian Politics Live. If you’ve not yet caught up with Lenore Taylor and myself on the Ipod wireless, and subscribed, here’s our link on iTunes. You can listen in to our back catalogue if so inclined.
And good news for regular subscribers, I will push on with the podcast project after the election, because enough of you listen to it to make that worthwhile. Lenore and I are very grateful for your support.
Just in case you missed it.
Two days to go! pic.twitter.com/ULAitEAgXj
— Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) June 30, 2016
The sum of the parts
Time for a quick stocktake before we press on.
Thursday in two dot points.
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Malcolm Turnbull has given his closing address to the National Press Club which called for a new style of inclusive political leadership right before launching a beat down on his political opponents and reiterated all his major campaign themes. Before that he blitzed the airwaves and was told in one interview by the Melbourne radio host Neil Mitchell that he needed to win handsomely on Saturday if he intended to remain prime minister, given, well, colleagues ..
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Bill Shorten rose early and pushed out on Medicare and social services in Brisbane. Shorten declared Labor was united and ready to govern. But the Labor leader faced a bunch of questions about leadership post election – had he lost the support of the NSW right, which was now lining up to back Anthony Albanese?
Meanwhile, in Perth, Labor’s deputy leader, Tanya Plibersek, on Malcolm Turnbull.
This is a man who has dumped every conviction of his long life to get the leadership of the Liberal party – and you’ve got to ask yourself what is the point?
Complexity is for less charming people
Malcolm Turnbull finished today at the press club as he started at the beginning of this campaign, by sticking to the plan. The plan has been to be the man with the plan. That’s it. Just be the man with the plan, over and over, every day, whatever question that gets asked, the answer is I’m the man with the plan.
We saw this again today. Whatever the question, smile, look energetic, be charming, look prime ministerial, look confident, and be the man with the plan. Whenever people raise issues with the plan, point out flaws, point out complexities, point out alternatives, just stick to being the man with the plan. As I mentioned to you earlier today, this is turning on the head of a pin on a scale we’ve not seen in an election campaign before. Turnbull’s script is incredibly tight: he can be a glimmer of himself, but not too much lest that annoy all the people in the Coalition who don’t like him. Which is why you just keep talking about the plan. The plan is a slogan, a barrister’s brief, that’s what I said this morning, but it’s also a box to contain the prime minister and make him shine just brightly enough to convey the message the Coalition wants to convey.
Turnbull is incredibly confident now. He’s surging with the notion that he’s pulled this off, pulsing with the energy of the sheer audacity of the months since he moved against Tony Abbott last September. You can see it on his face: I’m going to pull this off.
For a person who isn’t Malcolm Turnbull, the terrible complexity of what lies behind his current beatific victory vision – the party that chafes relentlessly against him, Tony Abbott, mulish on the backbench, the roiling over the marriage equality plebiscite, the complexities of governing, the uncertainties of the world, the anxiety that victory on Saturday mightn’t be comprehensive enough to make anything easier, the fact that he’ll have to continue being patient when patience is a burden lesser mortals have to deal with ... all of that would be enough to send most of us to a diminished place wracked with self doubt and introspection.
But not Malcolm Turnbull.
If you are on your feet you are winning.
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That’s over and out at the press club now. I’ll be back very shortly with a few thoughts on that outing.
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'I am making that prediction, but only time will tell'
Final question.
Q: You said: ‘I’ll be leading the government to the election in 2019 if I am returned as prime minister. You can note that down!’ How can you give that guarantee, given your own history in removing a first-term prime minister in 2013?
Malcolm Turnbull flashes a smile.
I am making that prediction, but only time will tell. You can note that down.
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Q: Can I move away from the mechanics of the plebiscite on same-sex marriage and invite you to explain why you think same-sex marriage should be made legal in Australia. Will you play a leadership role in the campaign during the plebiscite and what is the case you will make?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Well, Lucy and I have been married for more than 36 years and we believe that we have no doubt that if gay couples, same-sex couples, were able to describe or formalise their relationship as a marriage, we have no doubt that that would not undermine or affect in any way adversely way our relationship, our marriage.
The truth of the matter is that the key to marriage is commitment. The threats to marriage is obviously lack of commitment, cruelty, desertion, all of those things.
For our part, and I know I can speak on behalf of Lucy and myself here, we will be voting yes in the plebiscite. We completely respect the views of those who will vote no, but our view is that we welcome couples making a strong commitment and we are very pleased to support that being described, from a legal point of view, as a marriage.
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Q: You mentioned Tasmania and said it was an interesting state. I want to talk about another interesting state in this election. According to the polls we see that South Australians in record numbers seem to be, at least, flirting with the idea of abandoning the major parties in large numbers and going to the Nick Xenophon Team. Do you see any common themes – given Nick Xenophon’s protectionist stance on some things – do you see any common themes between Brexit and what I am calling Nexit in SA?
Malcolm Turnbull:
A vote for Nick Xenophon or any independent candidate in this election is potentially a vote for the chaos of a hung parliament. It is potentially a vote that will result in a minority government and all of that uncertainty.
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Q: Talkback radio listeners are brutal. They remember paying off the mortgage. Jack, your grandson, is well-known to us now. Some of our callers are interested to know how old will Jack be before the mortgage is repaid?
(I have no idea what mortgage is being referred to here, but Malcolm Turnbull presses on with alacrity.)
Malcolm Turnbull:
Can I tell you, the most important thing is that within a few years, one year past the forward estimates, the budget, according our forecasts, the budget will be back into balance and, of course, what happens then is that debt has peaked and starts to reduce and, of course, once debt starts to reduce in the context of a growing economy, debt, as a percentage of GDP, gets smaller and smaller. This is the most important thing.
Then we are in Tasmania. Don’t worry. Doesn’t matter.
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The prime minister gets a question on his focus on innovation. What of the old economy?
As prime minister, what sort of risk management measures would you consider for a country that relies on others for refined petroleum, relies on others for vehicles, might be down to one steel plant, is seeing all sorts of resource refineries close down?
Malcolm Turnbull says innovation is important in every sector. “We have got to be ready to look at things anew.”
Q: It would get exciting, prime minister, if our trade routes are cut off because I think the point Malcolm Farr was going to, we have 50 days of oil. We don’t innovate that here. How do you deal with that risk, given particularly that China is militarising islands in the South China Sea?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Well ... energy security is covered by our own resources here and, of course, by diversity of supply.
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Q: Last week your treasurer said if the gay marriage plebiscite went down, that would be the end of the matter. Do you believe that? Do you believe marriage equality in Australia is ... inevitable or and, sorry, will you be embarrassed to be the only leader of an English-speaking western democracy to not have gay marriage in the country when you, yourself, actually support it?
Malcolm Turnbull says there will be a plebiscite. “If the Australian people vote in favour of legalising same-sex marriage, then it will be carried through the parliament very briskly. It will, as I said yesterday, sail through the parliament. There are not many certainties in politics, but that is one of them.”
Q: There were reports, prime minister, that Fair Work Commission boss Ian Ross got involved in the independent process for the CFA EBA. How comfortable do you feel with a senior public servant getting involved with this given it is supposed to be an independent process?
Malcolm Turnbull says he doesn’t have detail on that.
Q: You said you will lead the party until 2019, but isn’t the reality that is only a promise your party can make? How important is a win and a win decisively on Saturday for the your future as leader?
It’s not about me, says Malcolm Turnbull. “A win for the Coalition on Saturday is critically important for the future of millions of Australians.”
Q: In 2009 as opposition leader you said that you wouldn’t pull any surprises on IR if you were elected. I wonder if you will renew that promise today, seeing as you are not saying that?
(I think myself, and have said several times, it is absolutely extraordinary that the Coalition has no comprehensive IR policy out in this election. Quite gobsmacking.)
The prime minister says absolutely, in response to the no surprises question. Then he works through the shopping list of bibs and bobs that the Coalition has spoken about: the ABCC, registered organisations, the RSRT, as if this constitutes a comprehensive IR policy, which of course it isn’t.
Malcolm Turnbull gets a follow-up on penalty rates. “Our position on that is the same as Mr Shorten’s, which is to respect the decision of Fair Work Australia.”
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Q: Your strategy is based around cutting spending and generating growth. Can I ask you for an assurance this side of the election, should you win, that if things don’t go to plan in terms of the budget that you will rule out in the next term revisiting any increase in the overall tax burden through measures you have ruled out so far, like looking again at negative gearing, capital gains or even the GST [with] a view to taking them to 2019, or any other net increase the tax burden to prop up revenue.
Malcolm Turnbull gives no explicit guarantee on anything at all but says generally if you want investment, you need to lower the tax burden on investment.
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The prime minister is supremely pumped. He’s rocking from side to side, the hands are going.
Q: If you are elected, do you think there needs to be a greater effort by you as a political leader and other political leaders to really communicate with this important group of Australian society?
The question is about multicultural Australia. Malcolm Turnbull starts with the glory that is multicultural Australia and the importance of mutual respect, and winds back to chaos and uncertainty if Labor wins.
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Into questions now.
Q: I’m very interested in your discussion about a step up in political culture. You have made stability a key theme in the final week of the campaign, but I wonder, can you really expect Australian voters to forget history here because we have seen Tony Abbott, Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd all toppled. I wonder what personal qualities you have that make you confident that you will be spared from the same fate and I wonder what are the lessons of that history that gives Australian voters an assurance that we won’t see a repeat of that history?
Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t tangle with that directly. He delivers the talking points on strong majority Coalition government.
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Here is the come, children, gather round conclusion.
Malcolm Turnbull:
My Coalition team is determined that we show strong economic leadership, and bring all our experience to the task of building a strong new economy. Our role as leaders is to address the real priorities in people’s lives – secure incomes, sustainable health and education systems, a safe society, and more and better jobs for themselves and their children. Every element of our Coalition economic plan is directed at delivering the stronger economy so vital for Australians to achieve these aspirations.
Together, Australians have the talents and capacity to make the successful transition to a stronger new economy.
Together, as a nation, we have the resilience and resourcefulness to get the job done. And I believe Australians, overwhelmingly, would think it is not before time that our parliament began to work with greater unity of purpose towards that goal. Get the next three years right – stick together, and stick to our economic plan – and we can all look forward with confidence and optimism to an Australia where our very best years are still ahead of us.
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I just make a very simple point about the logical inconsistency at the heart of this presentation. How can you say you want to unite the country and offer a new style of leadership while going to town with such vigour against opponents? The prime minister is in essence saying everyone else in politics apart from the Coalition are a bunch of profligate idiots. In the next breath, come, now, my children, gather round.
(I know this is politics, but I mean, really ...)
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Malcolm Turnbull comes back to the government’s super policy, which is unpopular with the base, before continuing the smash up of Shorten.
Malcolm Turnbull:
In the budget we announced the most comprehensive changes to the taxation of superannuation in a decade. Not all of these policies have been popular, but they make the system fairer and more flexible. We had the courage to put them in the budget and take them to an election. We will not be making any further changes to superannuation in the next term of government. Mr Shorten cannot match that claim.
Superannuation goes to the heart of economic security. Mr Shorten is now a policy vacuum on this vital issue, playing political games with the retirement plans of millions of Australians. Like his budget black hole, this demonstrates no economic leadership. Labor’s recklessness is completely ill-suited to the demands of the times. They are in complete denial about the state of the budget, and the risks in the global economy.
As leading economists have confirmed, if elected, Labor’s fiscal profligacy and ill-discipline could put Australia’s AAA credit rating at risk. Bill Shorten has no economic plan to deal with the challenges of securing Australia’s economic future in the 21st century.
His priority at this election is purely political. As he says himself, he wants to run the country like a trade union. How else to explain his incredibly ideological war on business. How else to explain his dishonest campaign to frighten frail and elderly people into thinking their health services are at risk.
Medicare is guaranteed under the Coalition, and Bill Shorten knows it. He has been mocked in this very room for spreading these falsehoods. He diminishes only himself, but he persists in the hope that he can deceive enough Australians to think that government services never at risk are under threat. Australians are well and truly over this tactic of setting out deliberately and dishonestly to fuel fear and division.
The prime minister is working through a list of Labor’s failings on policy and the budget during the campaign.
Malcolm Turnbull:
A superannuation policy which banks all of the revenue that the government’s policies will raise but which – incredibly – adopts none of the government’s policies. The refusal by Labor to identify the policy measures to support these savings defies all the rules and rigour of public finance. For all we know, Labor could adopt the Greens’ superannuation policies. Sixteen million Australians planning for retirement are left with not a clue about how Labor would change the superannuation system.
How is this acceptable?
A hospitals policy which provides an additional $2bn over 11 years – when Labor has for the last two years been promising an additional $57bn spending. Labor has failed to fund over 96% of the so-called hospital “cuts” they solemnly swore they would restore.
What a hoax!
A childcare policy that increases funding over the first two years and then cuts it over the next two.
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Now, to the opponents. (Evidently that resolute leadership of bringing people together doesn’t start just yet.)
Malcolm Turnbull:
Our opponents at this election cannot offer that reassurance to Australians – they do not have an economic plan for jobs and growth. Labor’s one and only strategy is to tiptoe back into government in a chaotic alliance with Greens, minor parties and independents. In an uncertain world, Labor offers only greater uncertainty.
Labor has nothing to say about jobs, growth and our economic future. Instead, Labor talks about higher taxes, more spending, higher deficits, more debt. Labor have been making commitments they cannot pay for, and cannot deliver. That explains the shambles around their budget costings. Over this campaign, it has been a sorry tale of Labor budget backflips, and policy reversals.
Vote one, Coalition, for an economy that wins and keeps on winning.
Malcolm Turnbull:
During the campaign, you have heard me emphasise the critical importance of Australians electing a strong Coalition majority government. Open markets, globalisation, and the speed of technological advancement is changing our world at a scale and pace unprecedented in human experience. In this dynamic global economy, our opportunities as Australians have never been greater or the horizons wider. But to succeed in the 21st century is not a given: we as Australians have to make the transition to an economy that is more diverse, more innovative, smarter, more productive – an economy that wins, and keeps on winning.
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'Strong, decisive, resolute leadership'
Malcolm Turnbull reflects on the economy and the growth story.
Now, Australia has done well to record 3.1% growth in the year to March, better than any of the G7 economies and well above the OECD average. But that in itself reminds us that we are in a low-growth global economy and we need to have a weather eye out for significant headwinds. Given that uncertainty, my strong sense is that what Australians are looking for most from this election is a step up in political culture - strong, decisive, resolute leadership - yet, with a focus on what unites, rather than divides. That is the leadership my team and I offer to the Australian people.
The prime minister goes through the Coalition’s priorities – the promises of the campaign. Then he’s into Brexit and uncertainty, the bureaucratic processes he’s set in train that will allow whomever wins the election to bound out of the blocks with a management plan to minimise the impacts on Australia.
Malcolm Turnbull:
Australians expect strong and decisive economic leadership. They expect political leaders to have the experience, to manage the risks sensibly and shrewdly, frame a plan of action and get it done. That is vital to confidence and confidence is the key to economic security.
Malcolm Turnbull makes his final pitch
I’ll clean up Shorten afterwards but right now, to the National Press Club and the prime minister. If you’ve read Lenore Taylor’s news preview today, you’ll know the prime minister is attempting to switch modes with this address today, out of campaign, back to prime ministerial. He starts with what the voters want.
Malcolm Turnbull:
I believe they want our parliament to offload the ideology, to end the juvenile theatrics and the gotcha moments, to drop the personality politics. They want to be – they want our focus to be – on the issues that matter to them and an end to division for division’s sake.
Australians are entitled to expect that of their parliament.
In these uncertain times, we need to stick together. Stick to our economic plan. Grow our economy. Create more jobs and build a better future for all Australians.
Q: Two questions, just following up Stephanie and Alicia’s question, are you confident Sam Dastyari supports you. If the vote doesn’t go your way on Saturday, will you support a plebiscite enabling legislation to legalise same-sex marriage?
Bill Shorten:
Listen, I thank you for the first part of that question. Because it gives me an opportunity to say something, whilst I’ve said a little bit in this campaign, I’m really pleased to say again today. The Labor party entrusted me with a great privilege when I was elected leader of the Labor party. We have probably exceeded the expectations of the people who wrote us off but we are still going with every inch of energy right down to the wire.
Every vote is important to Labor. The only reason we are in the competitive position we are in and that we can win is because of my entire Labor team. I won’t name the whole of my frontbench and whole of my backbench but you can take it from that, there is not a single member of my team I would swap. I have been very well served by my united team. The fact we have got a strong policy offering and united approach, the fact voters can go into the polling booth and know they are voting for jobs, education, Medicare, a first grade NBN, standing up for housing affordability for young homebuyers, real action on climate change, that is a credit to my whole team and I will not hear one word about me, critical of my team because they have helped put us in the position where we are fulfilling the trust of millions of Australians.
Q: Do you trust Sam Dastyari to back you. Is it frustrating you these are the questions you are getting instead of the focus you are wanting to be focusing on?
Bill Shorten:
You are allowed to ask whatever you want. Australians know we are united. If you want to look at leadership tensions, you have got the gold standard down the road in the Liberal camp. Mr Turnbull is talking about unity. That’s ironic, he can’t even unite the Liberal party. I mean if there is going to be real unity in the Liberal party, is he going to put Tony Abbott back into the cabinet, a man of his experience or going to keep punishing him?
Bill Shorten is asked about the CFA dispute. I would be less than candid if I didn’t say I was incredibly disappointed this issue rolls on and on.
Reporters go straight into leadership questions.
Q: Mr Shorten, how many seats do you think you have to win to ward off a challenge from Anthony Albanese and do you still trust Sam Dastyari after he told people he would support Mr Albanese?
Bill Shorten:
Silly question I’m afraid. I’m in this election to win it. What Labor is doing is putting forward a positive policy agenda. Since Malcolm Turnbull became PM, he has disappointed people. He has become a small target government with more to say about us than himself. By contrast, the Labor party I lead has been united for the last three years and we are more united now than ever.
'I want to make it very clear to Australians that we are ready to govern.'
Bill Shorten is in final pitch mode.
Three years ago I set out to unite the Labor party. I set out to formulate a social and economic program for both the short-term and the long-term future of Australia. Eight weeks ago I determined to explain our policy agenda to the people of Australia, to explain our policy agenda with clarity, with transparency and in great detail.
Today, when we get to the end of this campaign, I can say with complete honesty and confidence that Labor is ready to govern, ready to implement our policy agenda, ready to serve Australia. I want to say to the people of this great nation that Labor will serve the interests of all Australians. I want to make it very clear to Australians that we are ready to govern. I hope we’ve done enough to earn the votes of Australians on Saturday and I want to make one more promise. If you vote Labor on July 2, we won’t let you down.
Bill Shorten addresses reporters in Brisbane
We are not going to get this whole press conference done before the prime minister starts speaking but I’ll start here, and catch you up with Bill Shorten later in the day.
The Labor leader is back on Medicare.
Bill Shorten:
The cuts to pathology and diagnostic imaging bulk billing start tomorrow, on July 1. The cuts start tomorrow. And Australians have a chance to stop these cuts by voting Labor on Saturday. The case is pretty clear, the choice is pretty clear. You can either have Malcolm Turnbull or you can have well-funded Medicare but you can’t have both.
As Bill Shorten has not yet done his daily press conference and the prime minister is coming up shortly at the National Press Club, I will wait to post a summary until we are on the other side of those events.
Turnbull will address the NPC at 12.3o.
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Crashing back down to the human level, I missed the immigration minister, Peter Dutton, talking to Ray Hadley this morning.
Apparently all people smugglers need is just the talk of the dysfunction within Labor and the division within Labor on boat policy to get up to no good, Dutton tells Hadley, which begs an obvious question: if you care as deeply about repelling boats as you say you do, why would you bang on about it constantly then?
I know that’s logic we don’t need, so I’ll just press on with Ray, telling Peter that, like Tony Abbott, he doesn’t think Malcolm Turnbull has gone on about the boats enough.
Q: I know that the former prime minister was talking on Sky News, I think with Paul Murray from what I’ve seen this morning, and was surprised that bigger hasn’t been made of your portfolio and your success, and before you Scott Morrison and Tony Abbott’s success, at turning back the boats. It does appear to be, you know, being raised in the last couple of days, but it hasn’t been what he has considered a major issue and a major talking point for you as a point of difference between your party and the alternate government.
PETER DUTTON: I think people get, and it’s been spoken about a lot through the campaign, people get that Labor is still divided. Even the ABC, believe it or not, had a go at Bill Shorten this morning about boats and the fact that 50 of them are still divided and the people smugglers are preparing people to get onto boats now if there is a change of government. I think people have heard that message and in the opening weeks of the campaign we were pretty quickly out of the blocks talking with people. And there is nowhere that I can move around the country where people don’t stop me and say good work on the boats, good work on getting kids out of detention and stopping the drownings at sea. People understand, and this is why Bill Shorten doesn’t want to talk about border protection, but people understand that Labor, as they did when Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard were in government with the Greens and the Independents last time, they just don’t have the ability to stop boats and to stop the drownings at sea.
Q: We have got photos in the Australian today of four new wooden turnback boats they call them at Christmas Island. These are the boats that would be used to send new arrivals back to their point of departure. Is it true that more of these boats are being delivered to other Australian ports?
PETER DUTTON: Ray I don’t want to publicly comment, I have seen the report, but I don’t want to publicly comment on it because, as I say, with operational matters we just don’t comment. It was one on Labor’s huge mistakes, signalling to people smugglers what they’re doing or what the next move would be, and people smugglers were always one step ahead of Labor and they would be if Mr Shorten is elected prime minister again. But we do take prudent steps, we do act on intelligence and we do turn boats back. As you know we have turned 28 back and if those 28 had of got through then there would have been hundreds more that would have followed because people smugglers look for snippets of success to turn into a message to their people that are waiting in camps in Indonesia or India, Sri Lanka or Vietnam – wherever it might be. This issue hasn’t gone away and as people see on their screens, people drowning still on the Mediterranean, people still wanting to get to our country by boat and this is one of the key election issues people need to contemplate. Do we want the boats to restart? Of course we don’t. Apart from the human side there was an $11bn blow-out when Labor was last in government. Not only can they not manage our borders, but we know that they can’t manage the economy either.
Q: Given the smugglers are ready to press the go button if Labor win on Saturday, do you think they might test your mettle as well by testing the waters by, you know, duping people into believing that it mightn’t have been a change of government, but they aren’t as strong as they were?
PETER DUTTON: Well Ray, even just the talk of the dysfunction within Labor and the division within Labor, that’s all that people smugglers need. As I said on your program many times, they watch every word that I say, they watch every word that the prime minister says and Mr Shorten and Mr Marles say on the topic and they look for points of weakness ... Look they can, the people smugglers, as I say, through social media and through messaging otherwise, send these positive messages out and they report the week’s statements from Labor members and Labor premiers, and ultimately Bill Shorten and the dysfunction that he presides over really presents an opportunity for people smugglers.
Updated
I know you won’t care but there is something slightly like a fairytale about Canberra today, almost mythical. The winter has taken a long time to arrive but it’s certainly here now, today feels like a great sleep is descending on the capital.
Excalibur may be hidden here
— Kayakcameraman (@PaulJurak) June 30, 2016
#Canberra #Winter #NationalCarillon #Visitcanberra pic.twitter.com/FiNXwhnweQ
Not me of course, I’m wide awake. No sleep permitted in my neck of the woods.
As you do.
Bill Shorten signs a Hog's Breath Cafe plate in Logan #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/Y8Mve92B7X
— Adam Todd (@_AdamTodd) June 30, 2016
Back in Perth, and the head-to-head between Luke Simpkins and Anne Aly.
Luke Simpkins says he retracts previous claim that halal is unwittingly converting Australians to Islam.
— Andrew Burrell (@AndrewBurrell7) June 30, 2016
Bill Shorten has been on the go on the hustings since dawn, the prime minister has been static this morning apart from the radio interviews. Make of that what you will.
Meanwhile, in Brisbane.
Bill & Chloe happen to bump into some Gonski backers on a street walk at the Logan Hyperdome in Forde #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/Fa02KFpaWQ
— Primrose Riordan (@primroseriordan) June 30, 2016
Over in Perth, the candidates for the seat of Cowan are going toe to toe on local radio.
Anne Aly and Luke Simpkins go head to head in Cowan on ABC Radio. pic.twitter.com/NHlBjmJ0cG
— Andrew Burrell (@AndrewBurrell7) June 30, 2016
Regular readers will recall that the Liberals (last week I think) launched an assault on the Labor candidate Anne Aly, who is an de-radicalisation expert. All pretty brutal.
Aly gets a question.
Q: Labor is going to bring in same sex marriage ... as a member of a Muslim community are you able to state your position?
Anne Aly says she’s never purported to speak for the Muslim community. She says her own faith is a private matter. She says she’s a supporter of marriage equality.
Luke Simpkins says he’s personally against same sex marriage, but he supports the plebiscite. He’s challenged by a listener about the plebiscite being a waste of money. Simpkins says the government will honour the plebiscite.
He then gets a question about what the West Australian has called a smear campaign against Anne Aly.
Luke Simpkins:
I stand by the comments of my parliamentary colleagues. I don’t call it a smear campaign if people are held to account ..
Anne Aly says it is a smear campaign.
You can say a lie many many times but it doesn’t make it true, it just makes you a liar.
Richard Di Natale clarifies the Greens position on offshore processing, after yesterday's ambiguity
Speaking of Melbourne the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, has spent the morning campaigning in the electorate of Batman with candidate Alex Bhathal and Darebin councillor Angela Villella. He’s in the suburb of Reservoir, which has a strong Italian community, and Di Natale speaks to many voters in Italian, explaining how-to-vote cards and Greens policies.
@murpharoo Di Natale with voters in Batman today. pic.twitter.com/hviwtENjff
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) June 30, 2016
Labor member for Batman, David Feeney, is nowhere to be seen, despite Bhathal saying that he has a habit of showing up “a few minutes after” the Greens do.
Di Natale says Batman is winnable for the Greens, but perhaps not at this election. “You will see the Greens vote increase here in this election and if we don’t get it this election we’ll get it in the next one. I mean, we require a 10% swing. That’s a herculean effort. What we need to do now, because the Labor party and the Liberal party have joined together with preferences that might get David Feeney over the line, the challenge for us is to get over the Labor and Liberal vote combined. That’s a hard ask. But the fact we’re even in the contest I think is extraordinary. I’m confident, and I’m hopeful.”
There’s been news this morning that Labor party strategists believe that Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne, the only lower-house seat held by the Greens, could go to Labor candidate, Sophie Ismail, this time around. Di Natale dismisses those claims, saying Bandt is safe. “I think Adam Bandt has done a wonderful job in Melbourne and I’m very, very confident Adam will be returned.” He also clarifies comments from a press conference yesterday where he said that the Greens were absolutely opposed to offshore processing centres and wanted them closed, only to say moments later that was just a “starting point” and that everything was a “negotiation”.
Are the Greens willing to move their views on this one and do a deal with Labor, or not? “Let me be absolutely clear,” he said. “Our policy will never change. We want those camps closed. That is a bottom line that we will never negotiate on. Those camps must be closed because they harm and damage people. If we have an opportunity to vote against offshore processing, we’ll do that. Our policy is rock solid. We will never compromise on an end to those camps. We will never compromise on the cruelty and brutality that is offshore detention. But that shouldn’t stop us from trying to get the other two parties to change their position.”
- Readers note: This post has been corrected to record that Labor’s candidate in Melbourne is Sophie Ismail.
Updated
My colleague in Melbourne, Calla Wahlquist, who, unlike me, has followed the ins and outs of the dispute over the last several weeks.
Joe Buffone's resignation could not come at a worse time for Labor. Those crucial marginal semi-urban seats surely a lost cause now.
— Calla Wahlquist (@callapilla) June 30, 2016
Updated
Sticking with Melbourne, the CFA’s chief fire officer, Joe Buffone, has resigned this morning in the latest twist in the fire fighting dispute in the state. The Liberals have capitalised on this dispute throughout the campaign. As well as the day-to-day politicking, leaflets have been distributed throughout the state declaring “Labor wants to had the CFA over to its union bosses”, with pictures of Bill Shorten and Daniel Andrews. “Hands off the CFA, Send Labor a Message.” The controversy has made life more difficult in Victoria for Labor over the past eight weeks. The Liberals have been training significant fire power on holding their marginals in Victoria, and using the CFA SNAFU to bolster their case.
Sounds like thinks are lively at a Greens press conference in Melbourne this morning. I don’t have a direct feed of that but I’m sure Melissa Davey will keep us up to date.
"It's all bullshit" and "what are you going to do for the pensioners" - two separate senior citizens interrupting Greens presser @murpharoo
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) June 30, 2016
Have we set a new electioneering template in Australia in 2016?
I know we are not at the end, but there’s a couple of things that need to be said about this campaign. Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition’s campaign this time has changed some of the time honoured rituals of Australians elections. I want to pause on this thought for just a minute. I won’t be comprehensive here because this is a very big subject, but I’ll attempt to start a conversation.
The Coalition’s campaign has departed from the norms in the following ways. The prime minister has done very few print media interviews. Normally a prime minister would do a round of the papers in week one and in the closing week. That’s always been considered an important part of agenda setting in politics. But not this time. I suspect that says a lot about the changing media environment, and the atomisation of the media market. Print used to set the agenda. It doesn’t consistently anymore. Now there are many voices, chattering constantly, all capable of influencing the news cycle. Take for example, Bill Shorten has done an interview this morning with the Sydney Morning Herald, but it hasn’t kicked into the news cycle at all. I didn’t even notice it until someone told me it had happened, and I follow politics and the coverage of politics with an intensity bordering on obsessional. All the anti-Labor antics by the Daily Telegraph this campaign aren’t really driving the national coverage either, apart from suggesting a line for talkback radio hosts in Sydney. It all just flutters like confetti. The change of approach this cycle isn’t just about small target politics (although it certainly is that), it is about structural change.
The Coalition has managed to run an eight week campaign with almost no new policy announced. I would have said before I saw it happen that this would be impossible, to talk about one thing for eight weeks straight. But we now know it’s possible. In very general terms, I for one think this is a good thing. Before this period I would have said to you that it’s impossible these days to just stand and deliver a steady conversation in politics, that the environment doesn’t allow it anymore. But the last eight weeks tell us it’s possible to just keep your focus narrow if you are prepared to do that, day in and day out, and not be distracted by the rats and mice. It hasn’t been a deep conversation, sadly, about the core issue of economic management because the Coalition is hiding behind a slogan and Labor has been persistently passive about going toe to toe with the Coalition on the core questions, but it’s been a steady conversation.
What I don’t know is this: has this election set a new template for electioneering in Australia: slow it all down, don’t spray the voters with hundreds of ideas, don’t worry about newspapers, they probably won’t even be here by the time the next election rolls around – or is the dynamic this time just a function of this particular contest at this moment in history?
Meanwhile, in Melbourne.
My Mum’s going to be rapt.
This man is very excited to get a selfie with Greens candidate for Batman, Alex Bhathal. @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/Myqzpg4oYN
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) June 30, 2016
Pre-polls and postals
A couple of quick insights into people who have already voted. As of Tuesday evening, 1.795m Australians had voted pre-poll, which accounts for 11% of the total electoral roll. The proportion of voters who have pre-polled varies significantly between states, with only 5% of voters pre-polling in South Australia, compared with 14% in both Victoria and Queensland, which have now commenced school holidays.
Queensland and Victoria are also the only states where over 10% of the electorate has applied for a postal vote. Over a quarter of the population in these two large states has either voted pre-poll or applied for a postal vote. The equivalent statistic for New South Wales is just under 18%. Clearly school holidays are having an impact.
Updated
The final question in the Territory FM interview was would he legislate for voluntary euthanasia? No, the prime minister said, in an answer surprising no one, except the host, who seemed a little disappointed.
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull:
If you want a strong Coalition majority government after Saturday then the only vote is for Liberal, National or in the case of the territory, Country Liberal candidates.
Q: If you don’t have support in the Senate you cannot progress a single idea.
The prime minister says his host is right, you do need support in both chambers. But he says the new Senate voting rules will deliver a much more democratically elected Senate. He says also that the government will have a very clear and unequivocal mandate for its economic plan, which has been outlined in detail in the budget.
Updated
The prime minister has now bobbed up on Territory FM, in an effort to support the Coalition’s candidate Natasha Griggs, who he dutifully name checks.
Leadership
Given Neil Mitchell raised it in such clarion fashion let’s pause on the subject of leadership just briefly.
I’ve taken the view throughout the course of this election that I will do readers the following favour: I will desist from gratuitous leadership speculation in favour of focussing on the policy contest and the battle of ideas. But I will address it now, hopefully once, and my aspiration here is to be comprehensive.
For several days now there’s been speculation about what happens to Bill Shorten post election, assuming a Labor loss. And the marriage equality blow-up for the Coalition in the final week shows the prime minister has a big problem managing his party room post election. Turnbull is being extremely careful about everything he says on marriage equality, apart from telegraphing the message that he’s a yes vote.
So here’s the point that connects the fortune of both leaders: how safe either of them are is entirely contingent on the scale of the victory or the defeat on Saturday. If Shorten takes the result down to the wire he’ll have a case from remaining on as leader, and he’ll have some institutional support to do that. If Labor doesn’t get anywhere near government I predict he’ll be run over by NSW, which has three alternatives for Labor leader: Anthony Albanese, Chris Bowen and Tanya Plibersek.
I have been noting periodically through the campaign that Turnbull needs not only to win on Saturday, he needs to win well on Saturday, to have any chance of steadying his ship. A lot of the Coalition party room has held their nose on Turnbull as leader. He’s not loved. He’s the crossover appeal figurehead the party chose to deliver them victory this Saturday. That’s Turnbull’s currency. If he doesn’t win well, he’s in all sorts of bother. Neil Mitchell is absolutely right.
Which raises a further question mark over the stability pitch Turnbull has been delivering this week. Stability for Turnbull is both plea and promise. It’s a plea to voters to give him a mandate, please return me strongly as prime minister – and it’s a promise he knows he can’t entirely deliver without the mandate. You really can’t promise stability when so much is outside your control.
Updated
Back to you, Bill
Sorry for the channel surfing. Back briefly to Bill Shorten’s interview on ABC AM. That conversation eventually turned to Labor’s bete noir – people smugglers. Shorten dismissed the claim that, if Labor is elected, there will be a message that Australia has changed policies, which will embolden people smugglers: “No, that’s the Liberal party talking points.”
Michael Brissenden asked how Labor’s policy will be more compassionate, and why Labor had not ruled out a New Zealand settlement solution. Shorten replied: “I don’t believe you need indefinite detention, and that you can’t have regional processing as the price to combat people smuggling... When it comes down to fighting criminal gangs in South East Asia and lure people onto boats so they can drown at sea, they’re not getting back into business. And they can test Australian politicians’ resolve on this but I believe both Labor and Liberal are equally committed to that.”
Brissenden finishes the interview by asking how many seats Labor needs to win for Shorten to keep his job. Shorten dismissed reports that Anthony Albanese will challenge him for the leadership after the election as “conservative papers stir[ring] up some grief for Labor in the last few days before the election. We’ve been more united in the last three years than in the last 15 or 20 years. Look at the last three years. By contrast, Mr Turnbull clearly leads a divided party, he’s scared of his far right, he hasn’t got the courage to back in real policies on climate change.”
Updated
'I’m told if you don’t win well you won’t survive as prime minister.'
A question on the CFA dispute and milk prices. The CFA question is an opportunity to kick Daniel Andrews and Bill Shorten. Turnbull says his deputy Barnaby Joyce is on to the milk problem. There is no doubt Murray Goulburn mishandled how they communicated about prices to their members, Turnbull says. He says part of the problem is a global milk glut.
Mitchell asks about airport security in the wake of the Turkey bombings. It’s under constant review, the prime minister says. Mitchell thinks not many people will go to Gallipoli for commemorations. You’re right, the prime minister says.
Q: What would be a good win on Saturday?
The prime minister says a good win would see the continuation of a stable Coalition majority government.
Mitchell has a number. He says some colleagues of the prime minister think anything under ten seats majority is a failure.
Malcolm Turnbull:
The commentary is for the commentators.
Q: I’m told if you don’t win well you won’t survive as prime minister.
Turnbull says he’s focussed on winning every seat we hold.
Q: Are you tired?
The prime minister thinks he’s in good form.
Q: Do you wish Bill Shorten well?
I wish every Australian the best of health.
Mitchell asks him about trust. He mentions the man on the platform in Sydney yesterday who told the prime minister he didn’t believe a word he said.
Malcolm Turnbull notes some politicians tell terrible lies – look at the terrible lies Bill Shorten has told this campaign.
Q: Why should people trust you?
Turnbull thinks he’s been very straight and up front.
Q: Why trust you?
The prime minister says because he’s the man with the plan.
Q: Why trust you?
Turnbull says Australians know me well.
Neil Mitchell asks if the budget emergency over. The prime minister says he wouldn’t use that sort of language and the Coalition is terrific when it comes to budget management. Mitchell thinks there’s very little difference between the Coalition and Labor is hardly worth mentioning.
Q: Are we stuck with this higher level of spending?
The prime minister says the government is committed to funding social services and a generous safety net. He says the Coalition is prioritising spending better than their opponents.
Mitchell asks Turnbull does he guarantee to deliver marriage equality if the voters say yes.
Malcolm Turnbull:
There is nothing more certain than that.
Q: It’s a conscience vote!
Nothing more certain, Turnbull says.
Malcolm Turnbull speaks to Neil Mitchell
The prime minister is on 3AW and Neil Mitchell goes in like a freight train, which is his MO. Marriage equality plebiscite first.
Q: Will you tell you own people to settle down? Will you tell Cory Bernardi and people like him to watch it, to settle down?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Cory Bernardi has been represented as saying more than he has.
Q: He links same sex marriage to bestiality.
Let’s look at the big picture, the prime minister says.
Hai hai
Good morning everyone and welcome to Thursday. I have lots of thoughts to share as we enter the final three days, but I will have to sprinkle them throughout the day. The pace right now is too brisk for contemplation.
As Helen’s early coverage (with welcome heavy lifting from Paul Karp) makes clear, Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten got up in the dark to blitz the airwaves, an aural assault that will continue throughout the day. Let’s take stock before we push on.
The prime minister is in Canberra and the focal point of today is Malcolm Turnbull’s final pitch address to the national press club. It’s interesting Turnbull doesn’t appear to be calling in on neighbouring Eden Monaro while he’s in town – a decision, combined with Labor’s confident disposition, that would seem to indicate that seat is a write-off for the Coalition. If the Coalition wins on Saturday and Labor takes Eden Monaro (you noted the if at the start of the sentence, I have no idea how this story ends) hopefully for all our sakes, we might finally desist with the bellwether tag, which is one of my pet peeves during elections. (We all have our crosses to bear, I know).
Shorten is in Brisbane this morning and has done the Alan Jones program and a lengthy interview on the AM program. Turnbull is coming up very shortly on 3AW in Melbourne, and I’ll roll into that live. Let’s crack on. A reminder today’s comments thread is open for your business. If the thread’s too bracing for you, Mike Bowers and I are up and about on the twits – he’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo. If you only speak Facebook you can join my daily forum here. And if you want a behind-the-scenes look at the day and the campaign as a whole, give Mike a follow on Instagram. You can find him here.
Yo ho, here we go.
It’s been a busy morning already, with no signs of letting up. Katharine Murphy is in the house, ready to take you through the rest of today.
Until tomorrow.
Margetson notes Darwin is losing residents as major projects (like the Inpex plant) shed jobs and the city’s boom declines.
Turnbull: “If you’re concerned about there not being enough investment in Darwin, the Labor party alternative will be to put the handbreak on investment and growth by increasing taxes on investment, by increasing taxes on capital gains, by banning negative gearing, and by taking the most anti-business ,anti-enterprise, of any Labor party for generations.
Final words before news time?
“This is a moment to use your vote to ensure stable Coalition majority government, voting for Labor, Greens or independents can lead to a Shorten minority government, all of that instability. Labor, Greens or independents - that’s a vote for chaos.”
A quick interruption while Helen stays with the PM.
Bill Shorten has appeared on ABC’s AM with Michael Brissenden, who asks whether Labor has over-reached with its negative campaigning over Medicare.
Shorten replied: “It’s not that our campaign is negative, but what the government wants to do to Medicare that is negative ... Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t rely on Medicare like many people do.”
Shorten said Labor didn’t “invent” the taskforce to consider privatisation of the Medicare payment system and pivots to other health cuts including the GP Medicare rebate indexation freeze, medicine copayment, and cuts to bulk billing incentives for pathology and diagnostic testing.
Brissenden asked Shorten to commit that Labor would not make any cuts to health in the next term. Shorten ruled out cuts in those areas. The closest he offers to ruling out cuts entirely is: “We do not foresee a set of circumstances where we would be cutting the Medicare offering to Australians, full stop.”
They then move onto the same-sex marriage plebiscite. Shorten did not commit to passing enabling legislation to have a plebiscite, and said a plebiscite doesn’t settle the issue because Coalition ministers won’t commit to pass same-sex marriage after the popular vote.
“Why do we have to over-complicate politics? The quickest way from A to B is to go in a straight line. Isn’t that to have a vote in parliament?”
Shorten points to divisive debate in Ireland, and said that unlike Ireland, which needed a referendum, Australia only needs to change the Marriage Act, which doesn’t require a popular vote. Shorten said he wanted Malcolm Turnbull to return to his old position, against a plebiscite, and accused him of “followership not leadership” on the issue.
Turnbull rejects the idea that NT political scandals (of which there have been many and some I’ve covered), might have hurt the reelection chances of CLP MP Natasha Griggs. People are “politically wise enough” to know the difference, says Turnbull, not even remotely defending the NT government.
Griggs is “a powerful and compelling advocate for the NT”, says Turnbull. Margetson grabs the segue: “she wasn’t a powerful and compelling advocate for you. In fact she supported Tony Abbott.”
“We are a very stable Coalition government and a very united team but what we are focused on, relentlessly, is ensuring that the people of Darwin and the people of every community around Australia are going to to be able to get good jobs in the future, keep good jobs, their businesses will continue to grow, if they’re sick of working for someone else they’ve got an economic environment where they can start their own business.”
'I was there'
Gonski reforms, Indigenous issues, are what matters up here says Margetson. Will he maintain support for Indigenous issues, will he retain the portfolio within the department of prime minister and cabinet?
“Yes absolutely and I demonstrated my commitment to Indigenous affairs and indeed the advancement of Aboriginal people by attending myself at the Kenbi land title handover. One of the longest land claims in our history was finally settled with the Larrakia people. That was a very moving historic moment, and I was there. I was there with the Larrakia people as we did that.
And of course it is my government which has set up the Indigenous procurement program which we are moving towards 3% of all Commonwealth contracts going to Indigenous businesses, that’s the target.
And on Gonski:
“In terms of education our commitment is growing every year. We spend more money on schools every single year. Our commitment is unequivocal.
Updated
“Is the call because you are concerned about holding [the seat of] Solomon?”
ABC Darwin host, Richard Margetson opens his interview with the PM by noting his recent rash of calls to regional radio stations in marginal areas.
“We are committed to holding all our seats and winning more,” says Turnbull.
The choice on saturday is very clear, very stark in fact.
“A stable majority Coalition government which I lead, with an economic plan which is delivering...” Margetson cuts him off. There’s not much time, he says, and he wants to focus on local issues.
“We don’t feel connected” in the Territory, Margetson says. “How will you and the Coalition team support Northern Territorians?”
Turnbull: “with our defence investment plan we’re investing $20bn in NT facilities over the next 20 years, $8bn in the first decade. $12bn in the second. You know how important defence investment is in the territory.”
Turnbull also points to the important of engagement and trade with Asia (to which, as the saying goes, The NT is a gateway).
Updated
Shorten is ducking straight over the ABC’s AM program, but Turnbull is also about to hit the airwaves in Darwin. Warren Entsch has also responded to recent utterings by Coalition members on the plebiscite,
We will bring all this to you, because with our powers combined, the Guardian Australia team laughs in the face of time constraints.
Windsor: it was meant as a compliment
Tony Windsor has given an interview to ABC News Breakfast, and it starts with a defence of a tweet that Peta Credlin makes a nice cup of tea. Host Virginia Trioli said she interpreted it as a sexist put-down.
Windsor claims it was sincere: “It was meant as a compliment. One of the things I remember about Peta Credlin quite well, actually, and Tony Abbott during the negotiations in the 17 days when we were negotiating the formation of the minority government was that she always made the tea. And she made a very, very good cup of tea.”
Asked about the bitterness of the campaign in New England with deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, Windsor blamed News Corp more than the deputy PM: “Barnaby Joyce and I haven’t had any harsh comments. Obviously there’s been some work going on behind the scenes, particularly with the News Limited operation, that I’ve never had any time for. They know that. And they want to eradicate me. During the hung apartment, we had that period of time where they were always dogging me.”
Windsor said he is confident and has “as much chance of winning as anybody”. He talked up Rob Oakeshott’s chances in Cowper and predicted five or six independents could win in the lower house.
Updated
Jones: Should young apprentices be exposed to a construction industry culture “the likes of which ere exposed in the Heydon royal commission?”
Shorten says the royal commission didn’t go to a lot of the issues in the construction industry like health and safety and fair pay.
“I think there are plenty of challenges in the construction industry and I ton’t think it’s just industrial relations ... but there can be no tolerance for illegality and harassment.”
We’ll leave the interview there.
Shorten dismisses leadership chatter:"It's not surprise..that in the last couple of days the kitchen sink gets thrown at you" #2GB #ausvotes
— Primrose Riordan (@primroseriordan) June 29, 2016
Jones said the job of a leader is to rally the base, hence the geniality to Shorten and the meh to Turnbull #ausvotes
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) June 29, 2016
Updated
We’re onto corporate tax cuts now, which Jones is suggesting could lead to more investment, more jobs, and then more tax revenue from those new employees.
“The big benefit of corporate tax cuts will go to mining companies who have already made the investment, and they’ll go to big banks... All it does it go to their profits and bottom line.”
It seems every candidate is everywhere this morning. The Guardian team is on the case. Tony Windsor has just popped up on ABC News24, and my colleague Paul Karp will bring you an update shortly. Here’s a teaser.
Tony Windsor defending saying that Peta Credlin makes a mean cup of tea. Not sexist, just true, he tells @BreakfastNews #ausvotes
— Paul Karp (@Paul_Karp) June 29, 2016
Jones asks about Shorten’s 2013 plebiscite comments to the ACL, Shorten returns with what he said yesterday - changing public opinion, the Irish experience, wasting $160m. Jones agrees.
Onto Medicare, which Jones says Shorten has “invested with the same status as Phar Lap and Anzac Day”.
“There’s no way in the world you and I should have our health care bill paid for by someone else,” says Jones. “Aren’t there flaws in the Medicare system, where people who can afford it should be paying for themselves and they are not?”
To the first point, Shorten says it’s not up there with Anzac Day, but Medicare is a standard by which Australia measures itself.
To the second: “I think a lot of Australians pay their taxes and they don’t necessarily expect a lot back for it but one thing I think they do expect back is good affordable health care. What I believe is with healthcare, Australians are already paying a fair proportion of their own health costs but the burden under Mr Turnbull if he’s elected, will shift too much to private individuals paying whereas I think there is a role for government to pay in health care.”
Labor does believe in reducing debt but Shorten isn’t going to promise something which relies on measures which will never pass the parliament, he says in response to a ‘why more deficit’ question.
“The way you build growth in this country is you lead people with you, you don’t leave people behind. This is not the time to hand back taxes to people who earn a million dollars a year.”
You’ve got to cut back on the tax cuts to get ahead in these times, says Jones (who is interrupting much less than he was with Turnbull yesterday).
“We’ve made hard decisions, we’re not going to give away $50bn to large companies over the next 10 years. We are going to make multinationals pay their fair share. We’re going to wind back the loan schemes which have been seen to create private sector vocational education dodgy business model. We are not going to pay $1.2bn in baby bonuses, we’re not going to spend $4bn on an emissions reduction fund to pay large companies for poor environmental outcomes.
I’ll tell you one thing we’re going to save money on Alan. We’re not going to spend $160m on a non-binding opinion poll about marriage equality. We’re just going to get that done.”
Jones asks the same question he did of Turnbull yesterday - essentially that there is a big deficit and won’t somebody think of the children, saddled with the debt of our greediness and extravagance.
“I’m deeply conscious about what happens to the next generation of Australians. We’ve got a plan to pay down govt debt over the next 10 years, but what I also know is that I want everyone’s children go to well-funded schools. I want to see real action on climate change, I want to make sure they grow up in an Australia where it’s your Medicare card not your credit card that determines the quality of health care you get. I think when we talk about the future of this country we do have to have very sensible, steady budget management. But we also need to make sure that we’re putting in place the building blocks to ensure that we aren’t the last generation, Alan, who received a better inheritance from the previous generation - we don’t want to become the first generation who becomes hands on a worse set of living standards and lower social fabric.”
Bill Shorten is on air with Alan Jones this morning. Jones is asking what’s caused the shift away from Labor in the polls.
“I think our issues are actually biting and we are very competitive,” Shorten says. “I think this is a very close election.”
“I think there is a discernible mood for change of government.”
Jones asks about recent negative news.
“I have no surprise that in the days Labor is closing in on winning that some people will try and distract people from our case.
“My case to the Australia people is that we will prioritise Australian jobs, clean up this rorted visa system. We will prioritise apprenticeships. We will safe Medicare -we’ll properly fund it - and we will properly fund education... I’m the fittest I’ve been in nearly three decades and as a party we’re the healthiest we’ve ever been, we’re united. I think there is tension in the Liberal party. We know, you know, people tell you, there is a great deal of dissatisfaction in the Liberal party with the current leader. He’s got views which I think are at odds with a few people in his party.
“I think they will be unstable after the election, win lose or draw.”
R-E-S-P-E-C-T, find out what it means
We are starting to get a picture of what ‘respecting the result of the plebiscite’ means to Coalition members who are otherwise not in support of marriage equality.
Murph has had her ear to the wireless this morning.
Steve Ciobo on News Radio says he'll "respect the view of my constituency" on same sex marriage #ausvotes @heldavidson @Paul_Karp
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) June 29, 2016
To catch up on where the Coalition is on marriage equality:
- Turnbull has said a plebiscite bill will go before a Coalition led parliament in the early days of a new government.
- He’s demanded the opposition support it, claiming a successful election would give him a mandate.
- Conservative members of the Coalition, like Corey Bernardi, have said they will vote no regardless of the outcome.
- Two top ministers - deputy leader Julie Bishop and treasurer Scott Morrison - have both said they’ll “respect” the plebiscite outcome but won’t say exactly what that means. You’d assume if it meant voting in line with a ‘yes’ result they’d just say so. It could be a “respectful” no vote. It could be an abstention.
- This morning, Steve Ciobo has said he will respect a particular portion of the plebiscite - his constituents. The country could say yes, but if the electorate of Moncrieff says no then so will Ciobo. Which is what you would expect he’d do if we just skipped the $160m plebiscite and went straight to a parliamentary vote.
Updated
Some more from Abbott’s interview last night.
It was a broad discussion, including on the speculation he’s after a top Cabinet job. Abbott said he’s content as the member for Warringah.
“If there’s anything else, fine - but I haven’t asked for it, I’m not expecting it, I’m not looking for it.”
He said he often advised “impatient ambitious colleagues in my six years as the party leader who wanted to be promoted to this and promoted to that”.
“I said ‘look hang on a minute, most things come to those who wait and who do their job properly. But if it doesn’t come there is tremendous honour and privilege in representing 100,000 of your fellow Australians in the house of representatives as a back bench member of parliament.’ I will be more than content if that’s my lot for the next three years.”
Abbott also said he never paid much attention to social media and what people say about him.
“I know who I am, I know what I’ve done, I know what I’ve achieved, I know what I think I can still achieve and I’m very comfortable in my own skin,” he said.
Abbott also raised concerns about a possible recreation of a Senate of “exhibitionist” independents.
“If you’ve got all these people who revel in saying no because... that boosts their profile, this risks giving us in some respects, American-style government and in some respects even Italian-style government.
“We just don’t want this kind of thing.”
.@TonyAbbottMHR describes Senate obstructionism as the 'real Americanisation' of Australian politics #ausvotes https://t.co/rLGmGKliPZ
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) June 29, 2016
Good morning, everyone. It’s Thursday, but I think I might just have the hang of this one.
All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well supported in logic and argument than others.
Or so says Douglas Adams. I’ll leave it to you to apply the wisdom where you see fit.
We are two days out from the election and things are picking up speed. Head on over here to catch up on yesterday. Katharine Murphy will be in, as always, shortly after breakfast. Mike Bowers is trailing the PM, capturing the moments.
The big picture
Malcolm Turnbull will address the National Press Club at lunchtime, and call for a little more foot traffic on the higher road. After eight weeks of sometimes hostile campaign battles, the PM will make use one of his final major speeches to urge the next parliament to “offload the ideology, to end the juvenile theatrics and gotcha moments, to drop the personality politics”.
As Lenore Taylor observes over here, the call for more mature politics and an end to “division for division’s sake”, is quite similar to the speech he made after taking the leadership from his predecessor, Tony Abbott.
Abbott, ever helpful, has popped up and suggested this hasn’t been the campaign he would have run. The former PM told Sky News budget repair and border security had been ignored.
“This has been an election campaign where a lot of big issues have been touched on without really being developed,” he told Sky News last night. “National security has played almost no part in this campaign and even border security has been just an intermittent visitor to the campaign.”
This has meant “less substantial stuff” has been front and centre instead.
Abbott also said people would feel “ripped off” if a marriage equality plebiscite didn’t happen now.
.@TonyAbbottMHR says border security has been 'just an intermittent visitor' in this campaign #ausvotes #pmlive https://t.co/3AkcgfW8nO
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) June 29, 2016
The election was called over a construction industry watchdog but in its last days is all about marriage equality.
Turnbull said a Coalition win on Saturday would deliver a clear mandate for a plebiscite and he demanded that Bill Shorten respect that and pass the legislation.
“I think it would be very rash of any political party to deny the Australian people a say on this issue when it is clear a majority do want a say, and particularly when a government is returned on the very clear mandate to do it,” he told the Australian.
Turnbull was very confident it would pass, very confident voters would approve it, and has previously said he was sure the free vote then granted to Coalition members would see it “sail through”.
“Sailing through” may be an optimistic prediction for the future Senate. A Guardian Australia survey has found Coalition measures like the corporate tax cut and the so called “zombie cuts” would be unlikely to get through parliament. It also found a Labor government would be forced to negotiate on its negative gearing measures.
Such an event is looking more unlikely though, as polls suggest Labor won’t win the 21 seats it needs for government. Leadership questions are in the air, according to News Corp papers, which are suggesting a possible challenge by Anthony Albanese after an unsuccessful election.
Today the opposition leader has warned of Australia heading towards a situation where the likes of Donald Trump and Ukip gain traction because of increased inequality – which he says three more years of the Coalition would foster.
“We’re not at the point of America, but cooperative economic growth where people are included, not left behind, that’s how you avoid in democracies where people are feeling marginalised and alienated,” he has told Fairfax Media.
“We’re not immune from that – I don’t think we’re as far down the track.”
Shorten again denied Labor was running scare campaigns on Medicare, and said Turnbull had given up some of the “centre ground”.
“I think in this election he’s emerged as hollower than people thought.”
On the campaign trail
Bill Shorten is in Brisbane today, pushing on with education and health – specifically Medicare.
If you want to make sure we have a government that looks out for working- and middle-class families, not just the big end of town, then you need to vote Labor,” a campaign spokesman said.
Malcolm Turnbull is in Canberra and will address the press club at lunchtime.
The campaign to watch
Less a campaign to watch than one to keep an eye on and perhaps send to the naughty corner, but things have already gotten heated at pre-poll booths in one New South Wales seat.
In pre-poll booths in Macarthur, a Labor volunteer allegedly pushed over an elderly Liberal party volunteer and Liberal volunteers have allegedly removed how-to-vote cards from the hands of voters and verbally harassed a young woman. Police were called but no charges laid and the matter has been referred to the electoral commission.
The safe Liberal seat (3.3%) in Sydney’s outer south-west is held by Russell Matheson, who accused Labor of being “increasingly desperate and aggressive”, and demanded the party apologise for the behaviour of its volunteers.
And another thing …
Turkey has declared a day of morning after a terrorist attack on the Ataturk airport in Istanbul killed 41 people and injured more than 250.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has blamed Islamic State for the late-night attack.
Updated
