Night-time politics summary
- Today, Malcolm Turnbull did his first press conference for two days. His point was to take responsibility as leader for the election campaign and to acknowledge the disillusionment with the major parties as expressed in the low primary votes. He described the “grotesque lie” of Labor’s Medicare campaign but also suggested that the Coalition had to acknowledge they had a lack of trust on health. These points immediately suggested that he also acknowledged the Coalition’s broken promises on health. He rejected that analysis but it seems to have left the way open for a policy change.
- Peter Dutton would not accept that analysis either, simply saying the main game was forming government, then we can talk about policy.
- Dutton is a captain of the conservatives. He threw his weight behind Turnbull. No one was suggesting a change in leader and he has spoken to dozens of his colleagues, he said. Everyone is focused on a forming government. Speaking to MPs privately, they agree there is no appetite for a change of leader except among a few delcons. Ironically, they say the lack of success with the last change is the thing that is protecting Turnbull. But even so, who would lead? Morrison had a terrible campaign. The younger aspirants are not quite cooked.
- Bill Shorten tried to box Turnbull in by suggesting he was considering calling another election. He urged Turnbull to work with him in the parliament no matter what happens. But he blamed Turnbull for the rise of One Nation, given the double-dissolution election cut the quotas. Mind you, even with a normal election, Hanson would likely have won a seat in parliament.
- Shorten continued his victory lap. Yesterday he toured new Labor seats in western Sydney. Today he went to Queensland. He seems to want the longest election to keep going a little bit longer.
- Counting is continuing but it is like watching grass grow.
Tomorrow, the grass will continue to grow as the count continues. Thanks for your company and thanks to the brains trust, Katharine Murphy, Paul Karp, Helen Davidson and Gareth Hutchens.
Goodnight.
Updated
On Pauline Hanson, Dutton says the government will have a respectful approach.
Whether it’s Pauline Hanson, Ricky Muir or Clive Palmer, that’s the approach we will take.
Updated
Important thing is for us to be united and that is the view of the conservative element of the party, says Dutton.
What about you as deputy, asks Speers.
Dutton says the only game for all of us is to make sure we can form a government with Malcolm Turnbull as leader.
Conservative captain Dutton says no one is suggesting a change of leader
Q to Dutton: As a leading conservative in cabinet, what is your message?
Nobody is suggesting a change of leader.
They all want to form government.
Malcolm Turnbull has my full support.
People are angry about different aspects of the campaign, he says. Some believe we should have gone more negative, says Dutton.
You were kept in a box, says Speers.
You take the professional advice, says Dutton. Not the worst thing in the world to be running a positive campaign.
What can you read into it?
All of us are to determined we can form a government, says Dutton.
Speers is pushing it uphill.
The immigration minister, Peter Dutton, is speaking to David Speers at Sky. He says “overwhelming” they want the Turnbull government re-elected. But Labor ran a very dishonest campaign.
But the PM says the government needs to restore trust on health?
We ran an honest campaign, says Dutton.
We need to make sure we do tell people the truth and the truth is we are investing more in hospitals and health every year.
Do you need to unfreeze the rebate? Do you need to change any policies?
All of that will be dealt with over the course of government.
Updated
The NSW National party MP for the Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall is cranky that the NSW National party sent out a letter backing Barnaby Joyce, the federal leader.
Member for Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall was outraged by the circulation of a campaign letter to communities in the seat of New England late last week, which encouraged people to vote for the member of New England, Barnaby Joyce.
The letter was delivered to households on Mr Marshall’s stationary and included his photo and signature on the bottom.
“When the letter was brought to my attention I was absolutely furious,” Mr Marshall said.
“I did not see, nor endorse the letter which was sent out to people’s homes, purporting to be from me.
“If I had wanted to write a letter to residents, it would be from my own hand. From the heated phone calls and personal exchanges since being alerted to the letter, I can assure people that those in head office will not be doing that again.”
Joyce’s office said it was not their office but NSW head office. Marshall was fuming.
I don’t require people to speak for me and am insulted that those in head office think I do.
I also think it’s a massive slap in the face to the community.
I have received an apology from the state director of the party about how the fraudulent letter came to be delivered to people in Inverell and Glen Innes without my approval.
Hopefully, though, people saw through it – an old photo, wrong letterhead and a printed signature. It’s clearly not from me.”
Updated
Rob Oakeshott is down again in Cowper by the way; 284 votes.
Updated
Katharine Murphy has analysed the recent Turnbull press conference.
Enemies of Turnbull would say this is only reinforcing a reality that is already obvious, the natural consequence of his own electoral failure, a justly deserved reckoning.
Strip away the animus from that analysis, it’s more or less right. This election has fundamentally wounded Malcolm Turnbull to the point where it is hard to see how he can recover.
Short term, yes: self-interest can begin to assert itself if the count over the next couple of days trends favourably to the Coalition but, long term, the outlook is incredibly uncertain.
Anyone who saw the prime minister speaking in Sydney on Tuesday would have seen how diminished he looks after his weekend electoral shock: his anger, only just in check, the slight unsteadiness in the delivery.
Turnbull is now in a position where he has to bow penitently before the voting public, acknowledging voter disillusionment, vowing to work harder, acknowledging the extent of the campaign miscalculations.
Updated
CFA says AEC investigating robocalls urging a vote for Sophie Mirabella in Indi
Melissa Davey has a good story in the washup from Indi.
Victoria’s volunteer fire brigade has said it was not behind robocalls made to the marginal electorate of Indi urging people to vote for Liberal candidate Sophie Mirabella and to preference Labor last.
The Country Fire Authority (CFA) is embroiled in a complicated dispute with the Victorian Labor government and the United Firefighters Union over a proposed new enterprise bargaining agreement. CFA volunteers argue the agreement gives too much power to the union, and have refused to sign up to it.
Wangaratta resident Anne Shaw, who is in the electorate of Indi, said she was angered to receive a robocall from a CFA volunteer called “Bob” who told her how to vote two days before polling day.
“Everyone I’ve spoken to received one of these calls, it was quite widespread,” she said.
“It sounded like a real person, they introduced themselves as Bob and said: ‘I’m a CFA volunteer. If you want to save the CFA, the only person who can is Sophie Mirabella.’
A CFA spokeswoman told Guardian Australia she understood the Australian Electoral Commission was investigating the calls, adding that the CFA had nothing to do with them.
“The CFA is an apolitical organisation just like all public sector organisations, so we have no involvement in political campaigns,” the spokeswoman said.
McGowan has won the seat on an increased majority.
Updated
Graham Readfearn has written about Pauline Hanson’s No 2 on the Queensland Senate ticket.
As I wrote before the 2013 election, One Nation’s climate science denial appears largely driven by former coalminer Malcolm Roberts – the project leader of the Galileo Movement.
The Galileo Movement, with its patron Alan Jones, was launched in 2011 to spread doubt about the science linking global warming to fossil fuel burning while fighting with every breath attempts at putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions.
Roberts, like One Nation, claims there’s no evidence that humans are causing climate change and that the IPCC, the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO have been engaged in a “fraud” over climate science.
Updated
Katharine Murphy and Gareth Hutchens have rounded up the Liberal story today.
Liberal moderates have hit back at a coordinated push by the conservative wing to undermine the authority of Malcolm Turnbull before the final votes from Saturday’s election have been counted.
As the prime minister emerged from his Sydney home on Tuesday morning, key Turnbull supporters warned colleagues the rolling public recriminations since Saturday night risked consigning the Coalition to opposition.
The government Senate leader, George Brandis, who has been reaching out to the new Senate crossbenchers, including Pauline Hanson, issued a clear warning. “Stability is always better than instability, discipline is always better than indiscipline, playing a team game is always better than self-indulgence,” he told the ABC.
Shorten: work with me Malcolm
Shorten does not want another election. And he wants to work with Malcolm Turnbull.
The challenge we have in Australia at the moment as we try and work out who has won this election and who controls what seats, we have a weak prime minister, hostage to the right wing of his party. He has got instability within his ranks, he has instability in the Senate and what I’m saying to Malcolm Turnbull is – work with me, and we’ll make this 45th parliament work. Of course, let’s save Medicare, let’s reverse the cuts, let’s properly fund our schools, let’s take action on climate change and the rest of Labor’s platform, but, Malcolm Turnbull, you created this mess, don’t look for the easy option of just bringing on an election and blaming everyone else.
Updated
Shorten: we are an immigrant nation and we need social cohesion
Question to Shorten: Would you be willing to work with the Coalition in the Senate and some of the most extreme or unstable parties you mentioned to receive only a half term rather than a full term in the Senate?
Well, let’s cross that bridge when we get to it but one thing is certainly very clear here – Labor will stand up for all of the diversity in Australian society. We don’t support watering down racial hate speech laws, we don’t believe in prosecuting or picking out different groups because of their faiths. This country is an immigrant nation and we want to keep social cohesion. The Labor party won’t go missing on the hard debates. My concern with Malcolm Turnbull is whenever there has been a challenge he folds to the right of his party.
Updated
Ivory towers. Bill Shorten references Turnbull.
I see that Malcolm Turnbull has made one of his rare public appearances in the safety of a voter-free environment in a tall city building in the middle of Sydney. Well, I need to remind him that this election wasn’t just people looking at Malcolm Turnbull, and saying that they didn’t want him as prime minister. A lot of what happened on Saturday was people agreeing with Labor and the issues Labor was talking about including making sure that they don’t damage Medicare.
Updated
Bill Shorten: don't consider another election
Bill Shorten fires a shot across the Turnbull bow.
Mr Turnbull gave us the instability in his own party and the instability in this Senate. He now needs to genuinely concentrate on making the 45th parliament work. He needs to put the nation first, not himself first. Everyone knows there is great instability in the Liberal party, but he shouldn’t contemplate considering the instability in his party, by asking Australians to go to an early election.
Mr Turnbull may be tempted to say this is all too hard and he will go to an early election and put himself first but not the nation. Australians expect us all to genuinely work together on the issues we agree upon.
Updated
Joyce says he is confident of getting across the line in Flynn and Capricornia, both National seats.
Turnbull reiterates his confidence. And his frustration.
I know many Australians find this sort of frustrating, the wait, and you can imagine that we are among them.
It happens regularly though in western democracies, Turnbull said.
Turnbull says he has known the crossbenchers for years.
Barnaby Joyce:
If I might say so, you can be in different football teams and still be mates with people on the other team. I have been friends with Nick since Nick started. I don’t hold for one second that that gives you any sway or favour, it’s just the fact of how human beings get along. With Bob, I’ve known him for years and, but, they will be doing, I’m sure, their deliberations in what they believe is the best outcome for our nation.
Updated
Turnbull: wallowing in blame and recriminations is not for us
The PM is asked who is to blame for the Coalition loss.
Wallowing in blame and recriminations, that’s the people who want to look backwards. Barnaby and I look forwards, leaders lead. You know, people, others can blame, I’m not interested in that. We’ve had a campaign. We fought hard, we presented a powerful case. We weren’t as successful as we would have wished. We have found the result disappointing, we accept the verdict of the people, I take full responsibility for the campaign, as a leader should. And I do. But my job as the leader now, as the prime minister now, is to get on and govern, form the government with the parliament as it is presented by the people, and get on and advance the interests of 24 million Australians who it is our duty to serve.
Updated
There is an inaudible question but he answers on South Australia and Arrium, restating his promise to give concessional loans to the steelmaker.
Malcolm Turnbull also underlines the respect he has for elected members and senators, wherever they come from.
The reason that Pauline Hanson is elected to the Senate is because a large number of Queenslanders voted for her. That’s the reason she’s elected to the Senate. The quota is obviously less, around half. If you have a double dissolution election. The reason we had a double dissolution election was not related to the composition of the Senate, it is the only way we could get the passage of the Australian Building and Construction Commission legislation and the registered organisation legislation. That Section 57 deadlock procedure is literally the only option we had other than saying we give up and we will just wait until some remarkable day when there is a majority in the Senate to support it.
Updated
Turnbull is asked if he blames Tony Abbott for the lack of trust on Medicare.
We have to recognise that there is a real issue for us if people voted Labor because they genuinely believed or they feared that we were not committed to Medicare ...clearly that lie and its effectiveness gave rise to what was obviously evidence that there were some people that have lacked that belief.
Updated
Barnaby Joyce: we're back at work
Barnaby Joyce, deputy PM and Nationals leader:
It is so wonderful to live in a democracy where people’s views can be so clearly shown, and we do it in that great Australian way, that egalitarian, easygoing way, where people walk forward, cast their vote and then people of different sides walk out together and have a cup of tea or have a beer and the world moves on.
But the point of being here with the prime minister today is to show the Australian people quite clearly that we’re back at work. We are at work not in some form of retribution or reminiscence. What we’re doing is thinking about the future. We’re thinking about the future and where this nation goes next and how we best serve this nation.
Updated
Turnbull: It's not about us, it's about you
Turnbull:
It’s about their dreams, their aspirations, their families, their sense of security, their anxieties about the future, about government services, whether they can keep their job, whether they will get a better job and so forth. Now, on Sunday I promised all Australians that we and the Coalition will dedicate our efforts to resolving the state of the next parliament without division or rancour.
Turnbull: We have to rebuild trust between the Coalition and the people on health/Medicare
Turnbull said the Liberals ran a positive agenda but Labor ran a scare campaign on Medicare. He notes that the media called it out.
This was a shocking lie. I’m not going to pretend it’s anything else. But a fact that significant numbers of people believed it or at least believed it enough to change their vote, tells us that we have work to do and we are committed to that. That is a very clear lesson. We have to do more to re affirm the faith of the Australian people in our commitment to health and to Medicare.
(This is an acknowledgement of their history. Significant in my view.)
Turnbull: There is a level of disillusionment with politics
Malcolm Turnbull:
Labor has recorded their second lowest primary vote in its history. There is no doubt that there is a level of disillusionment with politics, with government, and with the major parties. Our own included. We note that. We respect it. Now, we need to listen very carefully to the concerns of the Australian people expressed through this election.
Turnbull: I take full responsibility for the campaign
Malcolm Turnbull:
Dealing with the more political matters, I want to make it quite clear that as prime minister and leader of the Liberal party, I take full responsibility for our campaign, absolutely full responsibility for the campaign. The Australian people have voted, and we respect the result. The actual settlement of the decisions with respect to particular seats obviously awaits the conclusion of the count which is very close. It will be a few more days before we get a clearer picture.
Updated
While we await the Turnbull presser, Emeritus Professor John Warhurst of the school of politics and international relations the Australian National University has given his assessment of the role of the Andrews government in the result.
State politics shaped this federal election. Malcolm Turnbull should send Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, in particular, a thank you card.
Whatever the eventual outcome, federal Labor’s poor performance in his state, probably caused by the lingering dispute between the volunteer firefighters and the state government and other state factors, might just have made the difference between defeat and victory for the federal Coalition.
Rather than Labor winning one or two seats in Victoria it may have lost Chisholm, its sole loss anywhere. In football parlance such losses are worth eight points.
Updated
Just re Oakeshott:
@barriecassidy @Auspol 1/2 Not a 'recount' Fresh TCP count to be conducted for Cowper. Same as in Barker, Grey. Instances every election
— AEC (@AusElectoralCom) July 5, 2016
Stand to attention for a press conference with Malcolm Turnbull and deputy Barnaby Joyce at 2pm.
Rob Oakeshott nudges ahead of Nationals Luke Hartsuyker (but not likely to win)
I have just got off the phone to Rob Oakeshott who is buoyed by results in Cowper where just now, he was 48 votes ahead of National party MP Luke Hartsuyker. Cowper was called as a National party win on the night but Oakeshott explained because the AEC had a National/Labor competition instead of Nat/Oakeshott competition, the AEC stopped counting very early.
Oakeshott said the Greens preferences are all over the place but a fair few are flowing to the National party over Oakeshott.
What an irony when at a candidates forum, he was asked seven times whether he accepted climate change but he would not answer. Now it looks like he will be elected on Greens preference flows. He will be the Greens National party candidate.
As you will pick up from that comment, while Oakeshott is ahead, he is not confident, partly because of the large primary vote (46% to 27% right now) for the National party. He said basically he needs 90% of the preference flows from all other candidates.
In a perfect world it’s possible but it is not a perfect world.
Psephologist Kevin Bonham explains why this may be so at his blog.
Updated
Scott Morrison did not have a great campaign. Financial reporter Robert Gottliebsen has suggested it is time for him to go. He goes out on a limb, calling for Julie Bishop to replace him. Though that didn’t end so well last time.
Accordingly, the Coalition’s star performer for many years and particularly in the 2016 election campaign, Julie Bishop, should be appointed treasurer. She will have the strength to avoid being snowed by Treasury and the marketing ability to sell her policies to the nation and to the Senate.
Scott Morrison should have been a great treasurer as he performed brilliantly in his previous portfolio but, according to Victorian Liberal party President Michael Kroger, dithering over tax reform was a key reason for the poor Coalition election result.
That dithering included flirting with increasing the GST, curbing negative gearing and giving the states income tax powers. None of these ideas came to anything and were dubbed “thought bubbles” by the Opposition.
Accordingly, the government lost the high ground in economic management.
While the Prime Minister contributed to the dithering, the treasurer was the main culprit because he could not help thinking aloud.
This is an interesting conversation which may explain our current numbers on the top of this blog.
A question from Ed.
If @GuardianAus is using AEC no's, @gabriellechan , then the current position is Labor 71, LNP 67, NXT & Indeps 2 each, Greens 1, Katter 1.
— Ed Hunter (@EdwardJWHunter) July 5, 2016
Our numbers man Ben Raue answers.
@EdwardJWHunter @gabriellechan @NickEvershed @GuardianAus the AEC just assumes whoever is in the lead will win.
— Ben Raue (@benraue) July 5, 2016
@EdwardJWHunter @gabriellechan @NickEvershed also in six seats they treat it as undecided just because there's no preference count.
— Ben Raue (@benraue) July 5, 2016
@EdwardJWHunter @gabriellechan @NickEvershed @GuardianAus whereas 4 of those six are safe Coalition, 1 safe Labor.
— Ben Raue (@benraue) July 5, 2016
@gabriellechan @NickEvershed @benraue Say your analysis is @GuardianAus 's own, then, and we will know why it is different to AEC figures.
— Ed Hunter (@EdwardJWHunter) July 5, 2016
Duly noted.
This morning the president of the Northern Territory Country Liberal party, has stepped up to concede defeat on behalf of former Coalition MP Natasha Griggs.
In the hours after the election Griggs was still holding out hope for a win on postal votes, even though it was mathematically impossible, according to the NT News’ count.
Labor’s Luke Gosling all but claimed victory in Darwin on election night, with a substantial swing of more than 8%, two-party-preferred. Down the road Griggs urged people not to give up on her, citing thousands of postal votes yet to come in.
CLP NT president Tony Mencshelyi took to the local ABC airwaves this morning to offer congratulations to Gosling, new Labor senator Malarndirri McCarthy, and reelected CLP senator Nigel Scullion.
“I understand from the number of votes still to come in, postal votes, that Luke Gosling will at some stage be declared the member for Solomon,” said Mencshelyi.
“I understand it must be quite a difficult time at the moment for Natasha Griggs with the results over the last 36 hours.”
Griggs in recent days laid blame for her loss on the NT government which has produced several years of near-continuous scandals, and she said the party had no chance of winning the forthcoming NT election in August. She is yet to comment on Gosling’s win.
Her Facebook page has been deleted.
Updated
Conservative Liberal senator for the ACT, Zed Seselja, has been asked on Sky about criticism of the Turnbull government by conservative colleagues like Cory Bernardi, and commentators including Andrew Bolt and Peta Credlin.
I don’t accept that my colleagues want to create tension. I don’t believe now is the time to be airing grievances. This is about the national interest and our fortunes as a party. I believe a Liberal National government is the best thing for Australia ... a Bill Shorten-led Labor government would be an absolute disaster.
Asked about Bill Shorten’s call for Malcolm Turnbull to resign, Seselja repeated the prime minister’s line that Shorten “would say that”.
There’s no talk of [replacing Turnbull], there’s no prospect of that. We have a prime minister and I want to do what we can to succeed. We’ve got a team, we’ve got a government with a very good plan for our nation. What we should be doing now is making sure we are able to be an effective government.
Seselja expressed confidence that the count will help his Coalition colleagues who are sweating on tight results.
Updated
Sorry blogans. Just trying to make phone calls and talk to actual people. In the meantime, heeeeeere’s Johnny.
Former PM John Howard says the possibility of a minority Labor government is 'very remote'. #ausvotes https://t.co/hG63c0uVmb
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) July 5, 2016
Ladies & gentlemen, the reactionary wing of the Liberal Party is proud to present...The DELLLCONNNS👏 @gabriellechan pic.twitter.com/RamLtd3zaK
— The Matt Hatter (@MattGlassDarkly) July 5, 2016
A man off to work. Part 2.
A man off to work.
In a very brave move, Australian Marriage Equality campaigner Rodney Croome lobs a bomb into Malcolm Turnbull’s world via an opinion piece for Guardian.
There is now a clear majority of MPs in favour of marriage equality – at least 81 according to Australian Marriage Equality’s count. The number will rise as more seats are decided and more undeclared supporters reveal their position.
Just on the Liberal party again, I recommend you read Gray Connolly’s thought-provoking piece in the previous edition of Meanjin on Australian conservatism. This bit is particularly pertinent to the next term of government.
Conservatives should always endeavour to support the unity and camaraderie of the national family. In this regard, conservatives should support the formal recognition of Australia’s Indigenous peoples. Conservatives respect history and heritage, and in this country no-one’s heritage and history should be more respected than that of Indigenous Australia. It is past time to give our Indigenous brothers and sisters the recognition that they have been too long denied. Similarly, conservatives should defend the religious faiths of all Australians, particularly our Muslim citizens, as we do our Jewish and Christian citizens. We have no religious tests in this country and we should not countenance their imposition now. Conservatives should also recall that any restriction on Islamic religious freedom will soon find its way to other faiths – and that this path too often leads to the guillotine or the gulag. The ‘freedom’-inspired reforms of section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act are of marginal utility for whatever libertarian cause is being pushed, and prudence, as opposed to absolutism, would be a better guide on this issue. Certainly, Malcolm Turnbull’s instincts were more sound and conservative on the ‘freedom agenda’ than those pursuing this gambit. What is conservative about promoting divisions in a pluralistic society?
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull on resigning: he would say that, wouldn't he?
Malcolm Turnbull has been button-holed outside his home.
Well, look, the count is continuing and we remain confident that we will secure enough seats to have a majority in the parliament but all the votes have been cast, that’s the good news, and it’s now simply a matter to count them so we’re just awaiting that.
Q: What do you say to the opposition leader who is asking you to resign?
Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he? I’m sure he would. I don’t think we’ll be taking advice from the leader of the opposition, do you? I think he couldn’t think of anything else better to say. Anyway, it’s good to see you. Thank you all very much for turning up and I will press on now.
Updated
Back to the cleaving of the Liberal party and/or bedwetting.
There are two elements to the struggle as far as I can see. One is the immediate problem of which faction has control of the prime minister’s office and therefore which agenda will be prosecuted by the party.
The longer term problem is the future control of the party. If you think back to the Q&A episode that Malcolm Turnbull did before the election, it was all on display there. Yes I believe issues like marriage equality but no I can’t be a dictator.
On Saturday night, it was also on display in the fiery exchange between Queensland senator and Turnbull backer James McGrath and broadcaster Alan Jones. I still can’t believe host Chris Reason broke it up. It was such great television.
It began when Alan Jones described McGrath as one of the leading “bedwetters”. McGrath fired back.
I think we are going to fall into a trap that Alan Jones is a friend of the Liberal National party in Queensland. He actively campaigned for the Labor party in the last state election. Alan, I actually don’t care what you think because you are not a friend of conservatives. You are not a friend of the Liberal National party, you’re the king of the bedwetters actually.
Commentators like Jones, Ray Hadley and Andrew Bolt cleared the path for the party to lean further right under Abbott. So close was the relationship that said commentators believed they could dictate the terms of the Coalition’s agenda.
When the party needed to change the agenda under Turnbull, the negotiations were excruciating - given Turnbull had very publicly told Jones on his own radio show to stuff off prior to his prime ministership. On election night, Jones said the peace deal was negotiated in a long meeting which began with terse exchanges and ended on a more cordial note.
The election result has allowed the Jones-Hadley-Bolt crowd - with the blessing of the delcons - to say we told you so. This experiment is never going to work. Turnbull is not one of “us” - a true Liberal. You just need to read Bolt’s blog post on why Malcolm Turnbull should resign.
Turnbull Liberals counter, saying they are the historic foundation of the party. They are not moderates - as commonly described in the press. They are true Liberals. They call people like Cory Bernardi, not a conservative but a reactionary. As one Liberal MP said yesterday, “the conservatives have been taken over by people who don’t make any sense”.
The Liberal project, he suggested, had been unmoored from its foundations. The foundations of Menzies, Fraser and Howard. The message was that “we” - being true (moderate) Liberals - need to take it back.
So these Liberals see their task of wining the party back. They also need to decide what to do about the likes of Jones-Hadley-Bolt. It is worth noting that NSW premier Mike Baird does not regularly go on those shows. There is a calculation within the NSW Liberals, that have traditionally been of the more small l variety, that those commentators do not speak to a very large audience. Who has the audience they need to speak to?
This will be a fascinating term.
Updated
There are a number of staffers milling around the building. As my Aussies cafe correspondent reports that quite a number have come back to parliament because they have nowhere else to go. Usually the winners go into immediate briefings in rooms around the building, including the Monkey Pod room. The losers start renegotiating jobs in the short paid period before the guillotine comes down. Within this vacuum, they can do neither.
Those who are not in the building, I guess, are just on the couch, catching up with Game of Thrones and Orange is the New Black.
Hinch has seven issues. Jacqui Lambie has four.
Independent JLN senator-elect for Tasmania Jacqui Lambie, has promised to cooperate and consult with all elected to the new parliament to deliver a stable government and has urged all to focus on four immediate and important matters:
- $1.2bn of aged care cuts nationally ($40m of Tasmanian cuts & 750 jobs threatened)
- Liberal and Labor removal of Schoolkids’ Bonus and family tax benefits
- Establishment of 50-cent-a-litre milk levy for dairy farmers
- Government defence and other contracts to help increase local job and training opportunities.
In addition to addressing and fixing my four important matters, my message to whoever is going to form the new government – is to learn the lessons of the past and consult with crossbenchers before legislation is introduced to parliament.
Updated
Bear in mind these are anonymous sources but we can see the Liberal party cleaving into two sections. They were always there, but they have been emboldened. A bit more in a minute.
Cabinet source stressing convention 4 party room to meet to re-elect leadership post elex. Says need 2be sensible & inclusive re crossbench
— Eliza Borrello (@ElizaBorrello) July 4, 2016
BREAKING from a conservative: If @TurnbullMalcolm does a deal selling us out for himself we can change him @1st party room meeting @abc news
— Eliza Borrello (@ElizaBorrello) July 4, 2016
Derryn Hinch on Pauline Hanson.
She is very pleasant and what comes out of her mouth is not that pleasant. She is talking about having CCTV cameras in mosques, and people go, well, why don’t you put it in churches to keep an eye on the paedophile priests. Doesn’t make sense.
Hinch: issues from the Justice Bus – family court and live export
Those outside of Victoria may have missed Derryn Hinch’s Justice Bus. This was the Human Headline’s version of the Bill Bus. So I thought I should bring you his agenda.
I am very clear on the seven issues on which we campaigned. We covered more than 11,000km in the justice van. I made it very clear my main point, I want a national public register of convicted sex offenders, I want a Senate inquiry into the family court and child welfare services. I want to launch a campaign to end live exports. I took a petition to Canberra in 1981 to try to do that, so not exactly a Jonny-come-lately on that issue. I’m a believer in dying with dignity, and domestic violence issues, a lot of these issues come down to state issues, I know that but there is a federal element, too.
Updated
Derryn Hinch: We may end up in the high court over this
The count in the Senate continues but like the Coalition factions, everyone is doing the dance of the army surplus blankets.
Phil Coorey at the Australian Financial Review has a story about the timing of Senate terms. This is a fight that was a natural result of the double-dissolution parliament. In order to get back into the Senate timetable, some senators will be assigned seats which expire in three years and some will expire in six years. No prizes for guessing why this will cause a fight. Here is Coorey:
The Australian Financial Review understands that both the Coalition and Labor are considering using their combined numbers in the Senate to invoke a never-before used provision to determine who serves full six-year terms and who serves three-year terms following a double dissolution election.
Under the countback provision, Ms Hanson, Derryn Hinch in Victoria, Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania, some Greens and other minor and micro-party senators would be among those who would be given three-year terms. That means they would face re-election again in 2019 which would be a half-Senate election where twice the number of votes are needed to win a seat. Under the reforms to Senate voting passed earlier this year, they would struggle to win back their seats.
In my opinion, if the major parties gang up on the crossbenchers it will say:
- They have learned nothing from the last election.
- They will be whacked even more at the next election. If they think it was bad when one in four voted for minors, think about a ratio of one in three or one in two.
Not surprisingly, the crossbenchers have come out swinging. Chief communicator, Derryn Hinch:
But the interesting thing is that I see that the Financial Review had a story saying there’s some sort of mumblings and rumblings in Canberra already between the Labor party and the Liberal party to try to get rid of the Hanson factor and the Hinch factor I guess by making sure we only serve three years. I don’t know what the constitution says, to be honest. But I think it says the Senate has to decide who stays and who goes. Now, my argument will be – and we may end up in the high court over this – would be I should be the fourth senator in the top six who should stay for six years. At the moment my party is running behind the Libs, behind Labor and just over half the vote the Greens got. The fourth number of primary votes, I should be the one that stays for six years.
My argument is not that none of the crossbenchers should be put on three-year terms. But if all are put on three-year terms, voters will smell a rat. And they would be right.
Updated
Sound the trumpets: The count shall begin.
The counting restarts in earnest today. It would not be unfair to say there is great frustration around the government over this Australian Electoral Commission’s process. But maybe it is more about the fact that their hands are tied until we have firm numbers. As to the push for a Coalition party room meeting, I’m told that a meeting cannot really happen until the parliament has some numbers to work with.
So there appears to be two different approaches within the government. While Turnbull continues to make phone calls to the crossbenchers, his camp says there cannot be a meeting until the count is complete and we know our numbers.
The Delcons, however, want a preliminary meeting to fence Turnbull in on any negotiated agreement.
Updated
Albo rules out tilt but 'no one is leader indefinitely, Leigh'
Anthony Albanese is in the leadership queue for Labor. He was interviewed by Leigh Sales on 7.30. He ruled out a tilt now but not down the track.
This is like a footy game that’s gone into extra time. Now you don’t even consider changing who the captain is during extra time. We have had an extraordinary result on Saturday. The Labor Party has been very united, will continue to be so and we’re still in a position whereby we may well form government in the next few weeks. But whether we’re in, I think the most likely outcome is a minority position, whether in government or in opposition, I have a great deal of experience, of course, having been the leader of the house in the 2010-2013 period and I want to help Bill as the leader, Tony Burke as the manager of opposition business or the leader of the House in how to deal with that if those circumstances arrive. I’ve always been a team player, Leigh, and always put the party first before my own interests, and I certainly will be continuing to do that as I always have. No one’s leader indefinitely, Leigh. We’re a political party more than 100 years old. But certainly, I think we will continue forward with Bill Shorten as the leader. And I will be playing a role as part of the team.
Updated
Nick Xenophon’s phone is running hot. The Adelaide Advertiser reports Turnbull put in a call to Xen Master, ready and willing to talk about the future of Arrium, the “troubled” steelmaker.
As his job hangs in the balance, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has spoken to South Australian senator Nick Xenophon to discuss the future of the Whyalla steelworks.
And senior minister Christopher Pyne told the Advertiser the Coalition was open to giving more help to embattled steelmaker Arrium. Senator Penny Wong also confirmed that Labor is “absolutely committed” to its success.
The future of Whyalla is becoming crucial to the future of the federal government.
Vote counting will begin again in earnest as the nation waits to find out who will form that government. So far the count is too close to call, and the possibility of a hung Parliament still exists.
Remember Jay Weatherill met with Xenophon yesterday. (As if he needed a prod.)
Updated
In response to the likes of Bernardi, moderates like the education minister, Simon Birmingham, have been out and about this morning, presenting the face of the reasonable centre right. He told the ABC:
Again if I look here in South Australia, my home state and Cory’s home state, the rise of the Xenophon party which is the minor party that’s been most successful of all at this election, I think they are overwhelmingly driven or those voters are more overwhelmingly driven by more centrist concerns. We need to be more mindful of that.
Q: More broadly speaking are those issues that other people are fleeing to, have they been abandoned by the Coalition? Do you believe much more conservative values need to be re-embraced?
No, I think the Coalition will always need to be the broad church that John Howard so often describes it as.
Updated
South Australian conservative senator Cory Bernardi spoke to 7.30 last night.
As it currently stands, the Liberal party’s dropped about a million first preference votes and the Labor party has dropped about 500,000 first preference votes. That says to me that the people of Australia are saying “Neither of you are doing enough of a good job and reflecting our concerns.” One Nation in Victoria went from having 200 votes to 20,000-odd at this election. The same in South Australia. The Christian Democrats in New SouthWales, their vote was doubled. You have the Australian Liberty Alliance. You have Derryn Hinch. All of these small parties that are speaking up for issues that many Australians feel very concerned about, are gathering the votes from us because we haven’t adequately been reflecting those issues.
He has been Eddie Everywhere since the election. He thinks the Liberal party lost votes because it is not gone further to the right. He quoted the Liberal pollster Mark Textor who told him the party would pick up more votes in the centre and hold the conservative end. Bernardi believes the election showed this was not the case. Remember he tweeted on the night:
@TextorMark Hey Tex, I'm thinking that Conservatives actually do matter.
— Cory Bernardi (@corybernardi) July 2, 2016
Updated
There are anonymous sources quoted all over the joint this morning. Unnamed Coalition MPs are agitating for a party room meeting. The Australian is reporting that Turnbull is facing “a party room revolt”.
The conservatives are trying to box Turnbull in (if they can’t knock him off) so that he does not do any deals that might drag the party closer to the centre. A hung parliament would provide the perfect cover to get a few things done that are his signature issues, such as climate change and marriage equality. The #Delcons are having none of that.
The Oz:
Ministers and backbenchers have held talks on plans for a partyroom meeting as soon as next week to ensure they are consulted on the crossbench negotiations and are not presented with a “fait accompli” if Mr Turnbull needs to strike a deal.
And it must be serious:
Coalition MPs are ready to pay their own way to Canberra during the extended caretaker period before parliament resumes, insisting on the urgency of a full meeting to avoid crossbench agreements they would later regret.
Updated
Oz reports prime minister's office threatened Sky over Credlin gig
Pamela Williams has an interesting campaign round up at the Australian, in the light of the Credlin spray. She reports that a senior member of the prime minister’s office threatened the Sky political editor, David Speers. It’s me or Peta.
It was a threat as clear as a sledgehammer and taken as such. Speers immediately contacted his boss, Sky chief executive Angelos Frangopoulos. It was clear the Prime Minister’s Office regarded Credlin with deadly venom. While she was on Sky, Turnbull would not appear. If this was the cut and thrust of electioneering, it had just become very bloody …
Two weeks later, Speers was threatened over Credlin’s role when it was made clear to him there would be no further co-operation from Turnbull while Credlin was employed. Frangopoulos said yesterday that he had taken the matter up with Turnbull’s office. “The issue was immediately raised with the PMO and the matter resolved. I have no further comment,” he said.
So we don’t know how that little skirmish ended. But I did note this from Credlin last night:
If they think that I’ve tried to settle scores, well they ain’t seen anything yet.
We shall seek some guidance on the allegation from the PMO.
Updated
George Brandis: more likely than not we will form government
Paul Karp has been listening to Turnbull’s chief Senate negotiator, the attorney general George Brandis. This is Paul:
What a difference a few days make – before the election the Coalition warned of the chaos and uncertainty of the prospect of Labor relying on Greens and independents to govern.
Today, from Brandis:
There’s no such thing as a failed election – an election always produces the parliament the people choose. Sometimes that’s a large majority, sometimes a narrow one, and sometimes the party that forms government relies on other elements of the parliament to govern, but there’s nothing unusual here.
Brandis addressed criticism from conservative Cory Bernardi, former defence minister David Johnson and MPs at risk of losing their seats like Michelle Landry.
In the event of the hung parliament, Malcolm Turnbull will seek support of a number of independents. It’s not helpful for anyone on the Coalition side to engage in criticism which would weaken Malcolm Turnbull’s bargaining position.
But Brandis still thinks it’s more likely than not the Coalition will form majority government:
The fact is we will know within a matter of days if the majority of seats was won by the government or not, but I think it’s likely due to the inbuilt advantage of the conservative side of politics on postal and absentee votes.
Updated
Good morning bedwetters
We begin the day with a whole lot of free advice for Malcolm Turnbull. It is coming from all quarters. Chief of barf is Peta Credlin who has let loose on Malcolm and his supporters. She has spoken to Andrew Bolt, head of the conservative faction outside the party room.
On Malcolm Turnbull and supporters:
Malcolm Turnbull, you are the man that broke the Liberal party’s heart … Arthur Sinodinos, James McGrath, Scott Ryan – they’re the ones that were at least in the Senate and kept their seats. Wyatt Roy, Peter Hendy – that collective brains trust that sat there and undid Tony Abbott, I don’t think have been giving the prime minister great advice,” she said.
I feel justified in putting this out there because, you know what? Everyone’s had a crack at me and the advice I gave the prime minister – Tony Abbott – but at least he won an election.
On Tony Abbott:
He worked so hard for six years to get them in to a position of a landslide victory and seats and an agenda, and the only one really who had a plan for debt and deficit repair.
On Abbott’s return:
Why would he do it? Because that hapless group of bedwetters are just as likely to see another couple of polls and say thanks Tony, but no thanks.”
Let’s get this blog up because there is a whole lot more shaking going on. I am @gabriellechan on the Twits or you can catch me on Facebook.
Updated
.jpg?w=600)
