Nighty night
Goodness, that’s enough of Monday, with all the usual thanks and salutations. Let’s draw the curtains by noting the eventualities of the day.
We can do this fairly simply. Today was meant to be manufacturing day, but for the government it evolved into exploding candidate day, and for Labor it evolved into penalty rates day, because ... campaigns.
Have a great evening. See you again in the morning.
James Massola from Fairfax Media has been pursuing the penalty rates issue over the afternoon. From his news report it seems he’s rung ten unions for comment about Bill Shorten not signing up to the Greens position, which is legislating to protect penalty rates. Eight are saying nothing. Two, the AMWU and the ETU, are saying penalty rates need to be protected by any means necessary. Just worth mentioning I think, the ETU has in recent times supported the Greens and made donations to the party. The CFMEU has also made donations to the Greens. I’m not sure whether the AMWU has or not. Obviously trade unions kick in to Labor’s campaigns as well.
I’ve enjoyed a brief dive down into the thread. Looks like everyone had a good rest over the weekend.
Good podcasts for politics junkies
On my Facebook forum on the weekend I plugged some politics podcasts that have sprung up for the election season.
- In case you missed it, my colleague Lenore Taylor and I are doing a weekly pod during the campaign called Australian Politics Live. It’s done quite well over this past weekend, which we are grateful for. If you’ve missed it and want to tune in for episode one, and then subscribe, you can find us on iTunes here.
- In addition you can find Paula Matthewson and Margo Kingston talking campaigns and policy at Pidgin Politics.
- You can find the dynamic News Corp duo of Mal Farr and Dennis Atkins at Two Grumpy Hacks.
-
Michelle Grattan of The Conversation has her latest podcast episode here – this week she looks at the battle for the seat of New England.
-
Patricia Karvelas and Fran Kelly of ABC Radio National have their venture, the Party Room, here. I haven’t had a chance to listen to that yet but given the talent I’m sure it’s good.
- Also a regular Guardian Australia podcast, Behind the Lines, is also venturing into the campaign. You can find that here. It features Bridie Jabour, Gabrielle Jackson and Kristina Keneally.
There’ll be others. I’ll keep you posted as I make discoveries. Enjoy.
Still going. Bantering.
I give you one job @samdastyari Just one job, keep the bus moving! Seriously though, I understand all safe & well pic.twitter.com/vKClE1S6FN
— Darren Chester MP (@DarrenChesterMP) May 16, 2016
No, reverse ferret. Labor’s Sam Dastyari is protesting. Whether protesting or protesting too much remains to be seen.
@James_Jeffrey @lucybarbour @rharris334 @srpeatling. Sorry @DarrenChesterMP unfortunately for you guys the bus is healthy and happy!
— Sam Dastyari (@samdastyari) May 16, 2016
Meanwhile in Port Macquarie, the Shorten bus appears to be in difficulty.
Omen? Labor bus comes to a grinding halt in Port Macquarie @James_Jeffrey @lucybarbour @rharris334 @srpeatling pic.twitter.com/oyJ7If2K6i
— Darren Chester MP (@DarrenChesterMP) May 16, 2016
Does Bill Shorten want Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard at his campaign launch?
.@billshortenmp evasive on whether Rudd & Gillard wanted @ ALP launch; Turnbull-Abbott photos will be "hard to beat" pic.twitter.com/oQtDWfxreH
— Jared Owens (@jaredowens) May 16, 2016
Let’s talk Malcolm and Tony at the campaign launch.
The brilliance of an elephant kicking Bambi
I’ve mentioned a couple of times today that the immigration minister Peter Dutton went the full beat down on Labor’s deputy leader Tanya Plibersek in Brisbane earlier. I breezed over the specifics in real time because several things were happening at once. I’ll post a portion now so you see I wasn’t making it up.
Peter Dutton:
I would love for Tanya Plibersek to be here every day until election day because she’s in a Greens seat, inner-city seat in Sydney. She’s on a family income of $800,000 a year. I would love to know what she has in common with the people of Kallangur or Bray Park or Strathpine.
Some silvertail like Ms Plibersek who is by Mr Carr, by his own advice, a two-faced person when it comes to important policies, I think she should talk to the people of Dickson about her policy on boats.
Why is Ms Plibersek opposed to Bill Shorten? Why does she white ant him from behind the scenes? This civil war within the Labor party is now taking place at the highest ranks and Ms Plibersek should answer the very fundamental question today of why she doesn’t support turning back boats where it’s safe to do so. She said as much to Fran Kelly in an interview on the ABC that she was opposed to turn backs and that she would only do it where it was absolutely necessary. Well the people smugglers would take that as manna from heaven. They want weak leadership. She saw it in Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard and they see weak leadership now in Tanya Plibersek and Bill Shorten.
(I would have thought a boofy character like PDudds kicking Plibersek in such personal terms would be about as popular as a lumbering elephant kicking Bambi, but maybe I’m missing the devastatingly brilliant politics of this.)
Updated
From BaldwinP in the thread on the other issue of the day – penalty rates.
The Greens care so much about penalty rates they haven’t put a submission in to the Fair Work Commission (https://www.fwc.gov.au/awards-and-agreements/modern-award-reviews/penalty-rates-case/submissions)
Maybe journalists could try reading even the first couple of pages of the ALP’s submission if they want a hitlist of quotes from Turnbull and co advocating for the destruction of penalty rates, rather than pretending it’s not Coalition policy just because they don’t admit to it.
https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/sites/awardsmodernfouryr/AM2014305-sub-FOS-210316.pdf to spare you the difficulty of finding the submission yourself.
Utterly reasonable point to note the Greens did not make a submission to the Fair Work Commission on penalty rates. So noted. So shared. This omission of process could be used to underscore the point that today was as much about politics as it was about policy, but then I think I’ve already made that clear in my analysis through the day.
As to the other points, I don’t need to re-read the Labor submission, I know there are members of the Coalition who support the abolition of penalty rates, a number of them. I know that business groups support that too. I’ve already pointed to that fact that Coalition folks are anti-penalty rates on the blog today. But until such time abolishing penalty rates becomes Coalition policy, these folks are just expressing views, not articulating policy. Lots of Labor folks have views on things that aren’t Labor policy either, doesn’t mean Labor has a secret policy on X, Y or Z.
Of course political parties are very capable of saying one thing before an election but another thing after it, which I imagine is your point?
Crikey’s political editor Bernard Keane is very good on the mutual tub thumping today. Crikey subscribers can read him here. Keane points out that there is no prospect of keeping Australia a manufacturing powerhouse because we haven’t been one since 2006.
Now [manufacturing] employs just above 7% of Australian workers, and falling — fast. It’s now only the sixth largest employer of Australians. If you want a powerhouse, try health and caring services, which employ 13% of all workers, or the services sector — nearly 9% — or construction, 9%. Or even retail — just under 11%. Or mining, which hardly employs anyone but generates tens of billions a year in export revenue, or education, which generates nearly $20bn in export revenue. These are our economic powerhouses.
But manufacturing is a powerhouse inside Labor. The AMWU and the AWU are influential unions and sources of funding for Labor.
And for all of Malcolm Turnbull’s rhetoric about agility and innovation, the Coalition isn’t immune from this nonsense. The current government started life promising a refreshingly rational approach to economic policy, under which multinational parasites like the big car companies wouldn’t simply get handouts to prop up local manufacturing, and the massive cost of buying a new generation of Royal Australian Navy submarines wouldn’t be bloated by building them locally.
Sadly, electoral pressures saw that approach abandoned, to be replaced, under Malcolm Turnbull, with full-blown defence protectionism under which we’ll be spending tens of billions of dollars more on defence procurement in order to employ a few thousand manufacturing workers locally.
To the government’s announcement now. This from this morning’s press release from the prime minister.
A re-elected Turnbull government will use Australian steel to build the first fleet of naval vessels commissioned in Australia since 2007.
The $282m contract was signed on May 5 with Austal for its shipyard in Henderson, Western Australia, to replace the existing Pacific Patrol Boat fleet and is part of Australia’s new Pacific Maritime Security Program.
The contract to build and sustain 19 steel-hulled vessels will create over 120 jobs and secure Henderson as core to the re-elected Turnbull Coalition’s plan for jobs and growth.
Austal will use Australian high-tensile steel to build the Pacific Patrol Boats – reinforcing our commitment to Australian built ships, by Australian workers and with Australian steel.
The Turnbull government is committed to maximising Australian industry across this project and all of our naval shipbuilding projects.
I’ve said quite a bit recently that economic nationalism is seriously in vogue this election cycle. Both parties are firmly in #Straya #M8 tub thumping mode, it’s just their accompanying stories vary.
The government accompanies its tub thumping with a serve of trickle down economics – which really is an odd combo, but if we start getting into the fundamental oddness of Australian politics that’s a ravine we never climb out of. Labor for its part is tub thumping with serve of investing for growth by investing in social capital, like education and hospitals.
The main question I’d have about today’s building ships with Australian steel announcement is how much will this commitment add to the bottom line of this project?
I suspect it is more expensive to build Australian ships with Australian steel. I suspect taxpayers will wear that one in the end.
Now that it’s a bit quieter and we are free of tactics, exploding candidates and the rest I can back track on the policies announced today.
Labor has promised $58.6m over the forward estimates to support automotive industry workers. This from the policy document. “Funding of $10.5m will boost existing automotive businesses to develop and implement plans to plug into new supply chains, bring new products to market and improve productivity. A further commitment of $48.1m will promote broader advanced manufacturing and related job opportunities and investment. Rather than duplicate programs at the state and federal level, Labor will leverage the work already done by the states and supplement existing state programs, both by increasing the resources these programs can draw on and by expanding their scope.”
Reading the policy document it’s clear this money is for both Victoria and South Australia for automotive industry transition, with a little bit of money also for NSW and Queensland. The document also identifies funding for specific areas in Victoria.
- North Melbourne $10.6m
- South East Melbourne $10.0m
- West Melbourne $5.0m
- Geelong $7.5m
Let the record show the writs have been issued.
G-G has issued the writs for #ausvotes #auspol pic.twitter.com/7jRQLuGOWf
— Political Alert (@political_alert) May 16, 2016
The Green senator Sarah Hanson-Young has now stopped in to the Sky studios after appearing in Melbourne with the leadership in Melbourne Ports earlier today. She’s being asked about Labor’s clear declarations over the past few days about not forming another minority government with the Greens in the event of another hung parliament. Is this for real, she’s asked.
Sarah Hanson-Young:
When the rubber hits the road, wiser heads will prevail.
Updated
Given the Liberal party’s exploding candidate in Fremantle has been something of a feature this Monday, and we’ve learned via the West Australian that he’s a member of the Sherlock Holmes Society of WA – anyone have the skinny on what the Sherlock Holmes Society of WA does for kicks? I’m mildly intrigued.
Updated
Looks like the Liberal leader isn’t finished pressing the flesh in Perth. The journalists are being pre-positioned ahead of him.
View from PM'S media plane heading for take off from Perth, while the PM'S jet remains. Wonder who he's meeting? pic.twitter.com/FKzFAb6lIJ
— Tim Lester (@telester) May 16, 2016
Meanwhile it looks like Team Turnbull is setting a northern course.
PM's campaigning in WA is over, for this trip, anyway. Next stop expected to be Darwin #ausvotes
— Adam Todd (@_AdamTodd) May 16, 2016
The innovation minister, Christopher Pyne, is beaming like a sunflower on Sky News this lunchtime. Naturally he gets a bunch of questions about Nick Xenophon and his campaign in South Australia. Pyne’s first attempt to deflect centres on the “I’m not a commentator” shtick. Then he goes the party of government line: if you want to get something done in Canberra …
You need to vote for a major party, not for a fringe party.
At least the Liberal party is being nice to the Labor party.
Updated
Meanwhile, Magic Mike Bowers is having far too good a time on the road.
Rumours the ship was to be called Mally McMalface turned out to be untrue @murpharoo @GuardianAus #politicslive pic.twitter.com/tuT4lNhnt5
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) May 16, 2016
He needs to come home and face a good flogging.
Who would be a politician, I mean, seriously. It’s madness.
Just a casual lunch. @murpharoo #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/Xmu3G0OidZ
— Calla Wahlquist (@callapilla) May 16, 2016
Street walk underway in Geelong.
Shorten has just popped into a dry cleaner. I have no idea what's being said. @murpharoo #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/GnTZzyUJBo
— Calla Wahlquist (@callapilla) May 16, 2016
Perhaps the Labor leader was popping his jacket in for a freshen?
Campaign this Monday lunch time
In summarising this lunchtime, three observations.
Malcolm Turnbull:
- The cheery disposition Mike Bowers captured in this photograph of the prime minister didn’t last. It faded when Malcolm Turnbull spoke to reporters after his tour of the Fremantle ship building yards. It faded because reporters weren’t focussed on amplifying the Coalition’s jobs and growth message. Turnbull didn’t throw a tantrum, but he made his irritation quite clear. Election campaigns are endurance tests for political leaders, largely centred around the key test of concealing your irritation. If you can’t conceal your irritation that never ends well. Impatience tends to escalate. And this is the second time I’ve seen it in recent days. The other occasion was last week’s leaders debate. Again Turnbull didn’t have a tantrum at all, in fact he was far more disciplined than today, but at times he had a look on his face along the lines he couldn’t quite fathom why people were asking the questions they were asking out in the Windsor RSL. He really couldn’t read the room. It’s the main reason Turnbull lost out to Shorten last Friday: failing to connect with the needs of the people in front of you. Journalists are a pain in the neck, I ought to know, but if you want to keep things on track, best just suck it up soldier. Free advice. Take or leave.
Bill Shorten:
- Today for Labor was meant to be about manufacturing (wicked wicked Coalition) and instead it’s about penalty rates. It’s about penalty rates because before the campaign, Bill Shorten on the hop locked Labor into a position on penalty rates which is at odds with the party’s campaign. The party’s campaign says Labor will always protect penalty rates, Shorten’s position on 3AW in Melbourne pre-campaign was we will respect the decision of the independent tribunal on penalty rates. These two propositions are obviously contradictory in the event the Fair Work Commission decides to scrap weekend penalty rates. Labor is today trying to clean up that mess. The party can’t exactly carpet the leader, ‘oh, sorry, he didn’t mean that’ – the campaign position has to be able to thread what Shorten said weeks ago into the broader theme of Labor will always be better than the Coalition on labour market regulation, but in doing that, Labor’s position on penalty rates isn’t really clear at all. Labor supports penalty rates, and will do everything it can to try and defend them, but what happens if that effort comes to naught? That very vital piece of information is left swinging in the breeze.
Richard Di Natale:
- Which is obviously where I dial in the Greens. The Greens are intent on executing a pincer movement on Labor every time there is a chink of weakness. Today’s move on penalty rates (we’ll legislate to protect them, Labor won’t, Labor will just talk) follows similar sorties last week. It’s very clever campaigning: sharp, aggressive, uncompromising. But how this plays with progressive voters? I’m not really sure about that. Are progressive voters ok with the Greens fighting Labor more than they are fighting the Coalition – because that’s what’s happening, it’s bleedingly obvious, and progressive voters aren’t mugs. All this positioning is smart as paint and as sharp as a scalpel. But whether it yields what the Greens need this campaign? Only time will tell.
Onwards, upwards, away from the imponderables.
Updated
Just before Murph gets to the summary, I’m checking in from Geelong, where Bill Shorten has shaken the hands of factory workers and had to clarify Labor’s position on penalty rates, which got a bit confused this morning.
The stage was Blackwell IXL, a metal stamping and rolling plant in Geelong, which is in the safe Labor electorate of Corio held by opposition immigration spokesman Richard Marles. Marles was here, as was industry spokesman Kim Carr, whose Radio National interview this morning stoked the penalty rates confusion, plus the candidate for the Liberal-held seat of Corangamite, Libby Coker, and the Victorian Premier, Daniel Andrews. Or Dan, as Shorten calls him. Dan and Bill: they’re just a couple of guys, really.
At a press conference in the very narrow front office, Shorten said that Labor would abide by the decision of the independent arbitrator but, if elected, would make a submission to the commission that would “strengthen only as a government submission can the case to defend our penalty rates.”
He is confident this would be sufficient to protect penalty rates, and points to his extensive experience in industrial relations as the proof: “This is not just something I say to you in an answer to your question, this is my working life.”
The alternative, he said, was “Turnbull economics,” a phrase that got three showings in the 20 minute press conference, or The Greens plan of legislating to protect penalty rates, which he said was “a loaded gun” to allow other IR reforms.
The purpose of the stop was to talk up Labor’s $59m manufacturing transition boost package, intended to help manufacturers in transition to “advanced manufacturing” and jump on the “renewable energy ideas boom.”
The staging of the day put Shorten was in his comfort zone (“This is not the first time that I have been in a foundry.”) and he leaned on Labor’s affinity with blue collar workers.
“The truth of the matter is just because someone wears a set of overalls to work doesn’t make them silly, doesn’t mean they are disposable,” he said. “The people on that shop floor… are people who can compete in the modern economy providing they have got governments at the state and federal level prepared to back them in.”
A tale of two mornings.
Right, well, that’s all pretty brisk so shortly I’ll post a summary snap-shotting where the campaign is up to, and share some photos.
Updated
Labor’s deputy leader Tanya Plibersek has come up for air in Brisbane. She’s asked about the Dutton beat down. Plibersek says she’d welcome Dutton bringing his brand of politics to Sydney any time he likes, because he would be an absolute vote winner for Labor.
Tanya Plibersek:
I don’t pay any attention to what Peter Dutton says about me or my motivations.
Plibersek is asked about her own position on boat turn backs. She says she has always supported Bill Shorten’s position, which isn’t actually right.
At Labor’s national conference, Plibersek proxied out of the debate and Plibersek’s proxy, Terri Butler, cast a vote with the left against Shorten’s position on the boats. She knew her proxy vote would be cast against the position of the leadership – it’s incorrect to suggest otherwise.
Obviously as a member of the shadow cabinet, Plibersek now supports Labor’s policy which is to turn back boats. Supporting shadow cabinet positions is a price of admission to shadow cabinet.
The Greens leader is asked whether his party would be undermining the authority of the Fair Work Commission if it legislated against a future decision on penalty rates.
Richard Di Natale:
No, we think penalty rates are something that should be protected in law. It is a simple proposition. We have other working conditions protected in law, for example, four weeks leave is one of those conditions we know is something that needs to be protected as a baseline, and we think that penalty rates also should be protected in law.
You can’t on one hand say that you’re strongly deeply committed to penalty rates and then on the other hand say, “We’re not going to do anything to legislate for those conditions.”
You simply can’t do that.
The Greens are completely at war with Labor in this campaign. They are playing for keeps, and thus far it’s yielding results for them at least in a tactical sense.
But Green Senator Sarah Hanson-Young has hoisted a peace flag in the direction of Labor’s deputy leader Tanya Plibersek. I mentioned a while ago that the immigration minister Peter Dutton launched an aggressive beat down on Plibersek in Dickson this morning – it really was quite over the top.
Sarah Hanson-Young isn’t amused.
It is pretty unbecoming of a minister of the government to stoop to the level of name calling and nasty personal attacks as a way of running their election campaign. Peter Dutton should be pulled up for this. Malcolm Turnbull should pull him into line.
Greens leader addresses the media
Greens leader Richard Di Natale, who has the benefit today of selling an uncluttered message.
This is an electorate with many young people working in the hospitality industry and I simply say to the Labor party: If you are so committed to penalty rates, protect them in law.
It is a simple equation. If you care about penalty rates as the Greens do, then join us and let’s protect them in law.
Because we have the opportunity to legislate after the next election to ensure that the people of this electorate, as with people right around the country, can ensure their Saturdays and Sundays are treated as special days, as they are, they’re a big part of our culture and that’s why weekend penalty rates are such an important basic right – and you can’t transition to a new economy by giving up on hard-earned old-fashioned rights that protect ordinary working people ..
Updated
Meanwhile in Melbourne the Greens leader Richard Di Natale is grinning from ear to ear. The only man currently smiling in Australian politics.
A question on negative gearing.
Q: On the economy, on Friday night’s leaders’ debate you cited “Aussie” John Symonds on negative gearing but in 2013 on Q&A he said negative gearing does need to be looked at. He said: “It leans very highly to... the high income earners and that needs to be brought into line.” Haven’t you both changed your tune on this and why is that?
The answer to this is Bill Shorten is terribly wicked and this is the same old Labor.
Turnbull then cuts and runs from the press conference.
I think you’d call this morning a minor car crash for both the major parties.
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull gets a question on the company tax cut.
The prime minister turns this question around to attack his opponent: the gradual process of Bill Shorten selling out to the Greens.
Labor knows they’re going to sell out to the Greens so that means a weaker approach to border protection. That’s one of the Greens’ asks, a higher carbon tax, higher taxes on business and of course ignoring any ruling that comes from Fair Work unless it suits the Greens. This is the process, the gradual process of Bill Shorten selling out to the Greens and he may say that it’s all a dream. Well, as Adam Bandt said, dreams do come true and the Greens’ dreams have come true in Tasmania when Labor said they wouldn’t do a deal with them and they came true with Julia Gillard when she said she wouldn’t do a deal with them.
(A distance away from Australian jobs here.)
Updated
The prime minister wants to know whether anyone has a question on Australian jobs. Anyone?
Turnbull is asked a question about job losses in the Victorian ship yard. He says there will be maintenance around the country, including in Cairns, which last time I looked was not in Victoria.
Then back to the exploding candidate, who is not a supporter of Indigenous recognition.
Malcolm Turnbull:
I don’t agree with that but this is an issue on which there is a wide range views but my own view is we should recognise our first Australians in our constitution ...
We are into questions now. Reporters want to know why the WA premier Colin Barnett isn’t here. Is it because he’s on the nose politically?
Malcolm Turnbull:
This is an announcement, a national announcement, this is an announcement about our national economic plan, it’s about our defence investment strategy, this is all about Australia, Australia’s commitment to defence here and defence advanced manufacturing.
Why isn’t the candidate here? (This would be the exploding candidate who I referenced in the last post.)
Malcolm Turnbull:
This is a national announcement. I’m the prime minister and I hope he’s out there engaging with the people of Fremantle and doing and good door-knocking. Very character-building. I’ve done it myself.
Q: Do you agree with his views that same-sex marriage could lead to polygamy or polyamry?
Malcolm Turnbull:
No, I do not.
Malcolm Turnbull:
This is our future - here at Henderson. This is our future, jobs and growth, and our national economic plan lays the way.
Malcolm Turnbull addresses reporters in the Henderson shipyards
Malcolm Turnbull has whipped off the orange vest in the west. Turnbull is excited enough to have used the phrase “oh boy.”
This is the future.
I’m not a betting person but my punt would be the quick quotes quill operation in Labor’s campaign headquarters will now be centred on tracking down every public statement advocating the abolition of Sunday penalty rates from every Coalition representative in recent years. There will be a fair smorgasbord to pick from.
The TV networks are telling me the prime minister is coming up in the shipyards shortly.
Just before he appears I mentioned the Liberal party’s exploding candidate in the seat of Fremantle earlier on this morning, linking you to a story from the West’s Sophie Morris. The West’s political editor Andrew Probyn is also on the case.
Mr Sufi, who was born in Karachi in 1982 and has been an Australian resident for 22 years, did not disguise he is a member of the Sherlock Holmes Society of WA. In writings since removed from conservative website Menzies House Mr Sufi opposed the apology to the Stolen Generation and said legalising same-sex marriage could lead to polygamy. He invoked the Holocaust in arguing for repeal of section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, which he described as “the Left’s ultimate weapon of mass destruction”. “No one is suggesting repealing the entirety of the Racial Discrimination Act,” he wrote in August 2014.
I suspect this will come up.
Updated
Meanwhile. More orange is the new lime.
.@TurnbullMalcolm meeting workers at the Henderson shipyards #ausvotes @abcnews @abcnewsPerth pic.twitter.com/5fPnLZa6un
— Dan Conifer (@DanConifer) May 16, 2016
The immigration minister Peter Dutton is launching a full-scale beat down on Labor’s deputy leader, Tanya Plibersek, which seemed not only fairly gratuitous (we’ve touched on her being two faced and her combined family income thus far) but kind of random until such time as I’ve now twigged that she must be campaigning in or around Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson. The sound of a light bulb in a live blogger’s head. Twing.
Updated
Labor's messy position on penalty rates
So, to summarise, Labor’s position on penalty rates is now the one Tony Burke articulated this morning, which is, as follows:
- Labor will, if it wins government, make a second submission to the Fair Work Commission defending penalty rates.
- Bill Shorten has just said he has absolute confidence that the case to keep penalty rates will be won in the commission.
- Of course the Labor leader has no way of knowing this. He has the benefit of his experience as a practitioner in the industrial relations field, which makes his view more than an abstract guess, but it is considerable distance short of the guarantee that Labor has been campaigning on.
- Shorten has also warned the Greens against pursuing their “sideshow” position of pursuing a legislative guarantee to keep penalty rates, but it isn’t entirely clear of course what Labor would do in the event Shorten’s absolute confidence in the final arbitration from the tribunal is misplaced.
Verdict? Messy, and messy on a core political issue for the ALP.
Updated
Q: There are mass protests and violence on Manus Island at the moment. People demanding to be brought to Australia. What’s the answer to that continuing situation there?
Bill Shorten:
The federal government should’ve done for the last three years what Labor would’ve done ... We want to stop the people smugglers. This is an issue though which vexes Australians. I think 99% of Australians want to defeat the people smugglers but many Australians are concerned that this government has been negligent in negotiating regional resettlement. We’ve got a situation of almost indefinite detention. That’s clearly unacceptable to people and it’s unfair on the people in the middle of it all. What a Labor will do after July 2 is we will prioritise negotiating with nations in our region.
Q: Would a Labor government reinstate the car industry or are you conscious that it will be an industry of the past?
Bill Shorten:
I’m not in the business of making promises before we can’t keep ... we will fight for every manufacturing job. I can’t promise every manufacturing job, every manufacturing worker, that we’ll always win every fight but I can promise them this: if we’re your government, you’ve got someone on your side, not someone who’s given up and doesn’t care about you, your family and your small business.
Updated
Bill Shorten fired up talking about defending penalty rates. "This is my working life." @murpharoo #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/9QO27BhRSe
— Calla Wahlquist (@callapilla) May 16, 2016
Shorten is asked about the government’s announcement today which is about ship building and the use of Australian steel.
Bill Shorten:
I love these Liberals. They do what’s expected at their day job and they want a bunch of flowers for doing it. Australian patrol boats should be using Australian steel! These guys want a medal for doing the basics, don’t they? They’re spending taxpayer money building defence infrastructure and they’re saying they’re going to utilise Australian content. Well, that’s what any of us would do.
(I’m not sure that’s actually Labor’s policy – I think Labor’s policy is using Australian standard steel, which is a subtle distinction. But I haven’t got time to check that thoroughly right now.)
A question on the policy, a couple of issues in WA, then back to the issue of the day.
Q: Just back on penalty rates briefly, your advertisements specifically say Labor will keep penalty rates. Isn’t that misleading? Shouldn’t they say something like: “We’ll do our best to keep penalty rates”, “We’ll fight for penalty rates”, not “We’ll keep penalty rates”
Bill Shorten:
I assume the question you’re asking is do I agree with you? Labor will at every stage fight for penalty rates. That’s what I’ve done my whole life. And that’s what my movement has done.
What I can say is the Liberal ads should really say what they would do if they got the control of the Senate and the House of Reps, 15% GST, state income taxes, getting out of the funding of state-funded schools, getting rid of penalty rates.
Malcolm Turnbull has a working majority in his own party room who want to get rid of penalty rates.
This is a real contest at this election about the future of workplace relations. And the contest is: do we want to be an Australia that has a strong safety net? Do we want Australia to have a set of conditions where there is a strong minimum wage? Where there are penalty rates and shift allowances, where redundancy agreements are honoured and where we see cooperative workplaces built upon the skill and productive relationships at work or do we want to go down in Turnbull land, where it’s a race to the bottom ...
There is a very clear choice and penalty rates is at the heart of it.
Updated
Q: Mr Shorten, Senator Carr this morning on radio raised the prospect of a legislative option to deal with penalty rates. If the decision came down that a Labor government didn’t like, they’d look at whatever legislation could be put before the parliament?
Indeed he did. Bill Shorten broadens Carr from the specific (which is what it was) to the general.
Bill Shorten:
Senator Carr is correct. Labor can always be trusted to have better workplace relations. Now the point is we just saw an example of Turnbull economics, the out-of-touch approach that they would take to workplace relations.
They didn’t like the decision of the Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal. The government didn’t even bother appealing the matter. They just scrapped the independent umpire. I’m a believer in the independent umpire to help set the terms and conditions and take it away from the politicians. I would never want to see a system where we had to trust Malcolm Turnbull’s change of moods, his change of mind, something he’s notorious for depending what the right wing of his party think. It would be a grave mistake to trust Mr Turnbull with the conditions of working Australians. By contrast, Labor always [has] good laws because we believe in the safety net and we want to create cooperative workplaces.
Updated
Q: If the Fair Work Commission does decide to cut Sunday penalty rates, regardless of the submission that you’d make, would you at least guarantee compensation for workers affected by this to ensure they’re not worse off?
(No, is the short answer.)
Bill Shorten, with the long answer:
When I was last minister for workplace relations, I made it clear as one of the guidelines for the independent umpire that they had to take into account the nature of the work being performed. I do not believe – and I’ve had a look at the evidence – and Labor, the first time in the history of federation, my united team, put in a submission to defend penalty rates. This case will be decided after the election but I have no doubt, Olivia, that the case to defend penalty rates will win the day and, with a Labor government in Canberra, standing up for the voices of the people who don’t always get heard, the lower paid and the less well paid, that only an in-touch Labor government can be trusted to defend penalty rates in this country.
Q: But Mr Shorten that means you can’t give a guarantee, you can’t say it’s an independent umpire and say that Labor will protect penalty rates. It’s not in your hands.
Bill Shorten:
I’ve been doing workplace relations for 25 years. I have stood in the independent umpire, I know how strong our case is. Those conservatives and those on the right who argue that the only way this country can grow is by cutting the wages of those who are less well off, well, I just don’t buy that economic theory. That’s Turnbull economics. Give a business tax cut to the multinationals, give an income tax cut to someone earning a million dollars of $17,000. Backing in and covering up for the banks. Having 50 members of your team wanting to cut penalty rates. That’s Turnbull economics, it’s out of touch economics. By contrast, my experience – this is not the first time I’ve been in a foundry. This is not first time I have walked around talking with workers and standing up for them. I know that the case to keep our penalty rates system is one of the unique features of Australian industrial relations which makes us the best country on earth. I proudly support a strong safety net and for me that’s not just something which I say to you today in answer to your question. It’s my working life.
Updated
First question is obviously on penalty rates.
Q: Could you guarantee the workers here and other workers they won’t lose any of their penalty rates if you win this election? If you can, how can do you that and accept the independence of the Fair Work Commission?
Bill Shorten:
Absolutely, I can guarantee to the workers here and indeed workers across Australia, that only a Labor government can be trusted to protect our penalty rates system. The contrast couldn’t be clearer between me and Mr Turnbull.
Mr Turnbull has at least 50 of his MPs or candidates to be in his team who have all called for cutting penalty rates. By contrast, Labor is the party of penalty rates. We know and we helped establish when we were last in government strengthening the protections for penalty rates.
I have absolute confidence and I’ve read the evidence and Labor put in a submission from opposition into the independent umpire’s case that we will win the argument in the independent umpire to protect the penalty rates system of Australia.
The case to get rid of penalty rates simply doesn’t stack up.
I have no doubt that if we are successful on July 2, my government will further intervene in the case before the decision to strengthen, only as a government submission can, the case to defend our penalty rates. I do also just caution the Greens, from their sideshow position, that they need to be careful what have they’re – they’re playing with fire by proposing that a government should be able to legislate on specific penalty rate outcomes, they are loading the gun for future conservative governments to pull the trigger, because what the government has the power to put in, a future government has the power to dismantle.
Bill Shorten addresses reporters
The Labor leader has made his way through the site to address reporters in Geelong. There’s lots of fighting words from Bill Shorten on Labor protecting jobs in Geelong and the region and the wickedness of the Coalition in driving the car industry from our shores.
Bill Shorten:
I think too many Australians believe that perhaps we don’t make things here any more and the truth couldn’t be further from that myth.
It would be a good name for a memoir really: truth, far from myth.
The Australian tells me Labor’s Brendan O’Connor has been on 3AW today and is articulating the Burke line on penalty rates – which I described a bit earlier today as the third way on penalty rates, third way because it sits between what Bill Shorten said a couple of months back and what Kim Carr said this morning.
Brendan O’Connor:
The Fair Work Commission has not decided on this matter. Labor is the party of penalty rates. Let’s wait for the independent umpire to make the decision. I have great confidence in the ability of the Fair Work Commission to make decisions that have consequences for working people. We believe at this point the best option is to make clear, if elected, that we would intervene to make submissions to support workers getting penalty rates.
Just quickly while I have a moment – earlier on today I very briefly referenced debate around the effects of the government’s proposed company tax cut based on research from the Australia Institute which was tipped into the morning news cycle today.
Here’s the short version on that, courtesy of a news story from my colleague Paul Karp.
The Australian government’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 25% will deliver a $999m-a-year windfall to the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) when fully implemented, a progressive thinktank has said.
The Coalition government wants to cut the corporate tax rate from 30% to 25% by 2026-27, and the tax rate for small businesses from 28.5% to 25% by 2026-27. It hopes the move will boost gross domestic product, profits, jobs and wages.
However, Australia and the US have a foreign tax treaty under which US companies in Australia pay the IRS the difference between the company tax rates in the two countries.
The Australia Institute has noted that, while the US rate is 35% and Australia’s rate is 30%, if the difference grows as a result of a lower Australian rate, the IRS will collect more tax at the expense of the Australian Taxation Office.
The government has taken issue with this work today. Mathias Cormann, from his press conference first up.
That’s commentary from the Australian Institute today is factually incorrect. It’s completely and utterly wrong and ill-informed.
Waiting for Bill, part two. Squatting room only for the snappers. #ausvotes @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/rxSUgHz1iB
— Calla Wahlquist (@callapilla) May 16, 2016
With the prime minister in the west today (we expect the theme to be shipbuilding), an interesting story in the West Australian from Sophie Morris about the employment history of the candidate in Fremantle.
The Liberal candidate for Fremantle misdescribed his work background in his original application for preselection. Sherry Sufi asserts in his application for endorsement that he works as a research officer for the department of the premier and cabinet. In fact, Mr Sufi, 33, has worked for State politicians Michael Sutherland and Liz Behjat. Similarly, Mr Sufi’s application to the Liberal party, seen by the West Australian, claims he worked for department of finance and deregulation in 2014-15 when in fact he worked briefly as a staffer for federal Liberal MP-turned-independent Dennis Jensen and for Liberal senator Linda Reynolds. In both instances, he named the paymaster but not the effective employer.
Possibly this could come up in dispatches today.
Updated
Q: How much is the Coalition spending on the car manufacturing industry?
Scott Morrison:
We’re spending hundreds of millions in supporting the transition, particularly down there in Geelong, where I know there’s been some announcements today.
Q: Are you able to give me an exact figure on how much you’re spending on car manufacturing?
Scott Morrison:
Hundreds of millions.
Updated
Scott Morrison, continuing:
The other point I would make is the Adani coalmine. If Labor are elected they will form an agreement with the Greens to run the country together. That means you have Adam Bandt as the deputy treasurer of the country. He is saying no dams, no coal. You know what that means up here in Townsville for jobs in Townsville and in this region more broadly.
That would be a disaster for the Australian economy, and it would be a real disaster for Townsville.
Q: I believe the opposition has ruled that out, but just on another issue ...
Updated
The treasurer, Scott Morrison, has washed up on the trail in Townsville. He is holding a media conference now and has launched the preamble firmly in the mode of the national campaign: Labor – a bunch of idiots who will destroy the value of the family home.
But all politics is local.
Q: In your budget there was very little new money for any any projects in Townsville. Week two of the campaign and still no new money for anything in Townsville?
Scott Morrison:
We already have $500m invested in the infrastructure projects in and around Townsville and in addition to that I mean there’s over $2bn in the new arrangement that we’ve announced with the Singaporean government. These are massive, massive boosts to what will happen here in Townsville in particular and in the region more generally.
Updated
Meanwhile, orange is the new lime?
Kim Carr, Richard Marles and Daniel Andrews are here. Andrews brought his own high-vis vest. @murpharoo #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/fmrZE2NNOn
— Calla Wahlquist (@callapilla) May 16, 2016
I said before the government has made no submission to the Fair Work Commission on penalty rates (unlike Labor and a couple of state governments). One Liberal backbencher has made her views known. Melissa Price has professed herself in favour of penalty rate cuts. Burke said earlier today “the government has a submission in which is encouraging [the Fair Work Commission] to get rid of penalty rates”. We haven’t seen an industrial relations policy yet from the Coalition. The Coalition is generally in favour of labour market deregulation. But thus far, the signals from the government (as opposed to individual MPs) have been they will respect the decision of the Fair Work Commission on penalty rates.
Updated
Today’s main announcement is a $59m package to help car industry workers. Not sure if I’ve said that specifically yet.
Waiting for Shorten at Blackwell IXL, a metal stamping/rolling factory in the seat of Corio in Geelong. @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/yIgv8vkSaV
— Calla Wahlquist (@callapilla) May 16, 2016
Like a prayer: Eric Abetz courts beer disaster
While Shorten’s bus makes its way through the streets of Geelong to today’s high-vis vest-wearing opportunity, let’s take a few moments to analyse Eric Abetz’s beer choice.
The Tasmanian senator told The Catholic Leader that his malted beverage of choice was Boags Premium (the final question in a Q&A, after ‘when do you really need to turn to prayer?’).
That may seem uncontroversial for a non-Tasmanian, but Abetz is breaching a parochial divide here.
There are two major breweries in Tasmania: Boags, in Launceston, and Cascade, in Hobart. As a southerner, Abetz should be a Cascade man. His office, in Davey Street, is 3km from the Cascade brewery.
And even if it were acceptable for a Hobartian to ever prefer something made in Launceston, Boags Premium is hardly the everyman’s beer. This correspondent’s pick of the Boags lineup would be Boags Red, or Boags XXX as it’s formally known, a serviceable brew only available in Tasmania.
But Boags Premium? He may as well have chosen Moo Brew.
While Labor has roamed far and wide on penalty rates, the treasurer, Scott Morrison, has been with his favourite bro, Ray Hadley.
The main points of that encounter were: Scott is really happy Tony Abbott is campaigning in Warringah because he’s very popular there; Scott isn’t inclined to agree with Ray that the budget’s superannuation changes are the government’s “Achilles heel”; if Labor gets elected Green Adam Bandt will end up being deputy treasurer of Australia (#YouKnowItMakesSense); and Anthony Albanese is a “good bloke” but Scott would prefer a Liberal member in Grayndler, but in a preference fight he’d go Albo every time. Probably.
So noted on all fronts.
Updated
Being all over the shop on penalty rates: a short case study
So let’s pull that all together.
- The Labor leader Bill Shorten has said a Labor government supports the independence of the Fair Work Commission when it comes to penalty rates.
- Labor’s Kim Carr says Labor’s support for penalty rates is absolute.
- Labor’s Tony Burke says Labor supports penalty rates and independent tribunals, unlike the government, which has made a submission against them.
- Unfortunately for Burke, the government has not made a submission against penalty rates to the tribunal.
Err, no, Tony
The opposition finance spokesman, Tony Burke, has got in a bit of a muddle explaining Labor’s policy on penalty rates.
Burke said penalty rates are at risk because “Malcolm Turnbull has been willing to have a submission [to the Fair Work Commission] that matches the views of so many of the Liberal party backbench. They want to get rid of penalty rates.”
He’s wrong - the commonwealth government has made no submission to cut penalty rates. The Labor opposition has made a submission in favour of penalty rates, which the government has not done, but that doesn’t amount to asking the independent umpire to cut penalty rates.
Updated
Labor has had a shift change with campaign spokespeople. The Senate leader, Penny Wong, and the manager of business in the House, Tony Burke, are sharing spinning duties.
Burke of course is being asked about penalty rates. His position this morning is somewhere between Kim Carr’s position this morning (Labor’s defence of penalty rates is absolute) and Shorten’s position of respecting the tribunal.
Let’s call this the third way position on penalty rates.
Q: With the penalty rates we have the ACTU this morning saying more action needs to be done. The Greens say they would legislate current penalty rates.
Tony Burke:
Labor for its entire history has supported there being an umpire on these issues and throughout the entire history of this country, that umpire has been an umpire that when asked has defended penalty rates. That is how we have seen this develop throughout the history of our country.
Burke says the government has made a submission to the FWC encouraging them to get rid of penalty rates. He says Labor if elected will change the default government policy: Labor will tell the commission to support penalty rates.
Tony Burke:
That way you don’t have a push from the government jeopardising the income of people who are relying on penalty rates.
But he says government’s have to respect the position of independent tribunals.
Be in no doubt of the dangerous risk that is posed by the Greens policy on this one. Being in no doubt about it. Once you open the door that you won’t have the umpire make these decisions, and you open the door that these decisions will be made through legislation in the parliament, at that point you’ve given free range for a conservative government to do the exact opposite.
The decision won’t have been made by the time of the election and a Labor government would change the position that the Australian government holds on those issues because we understand that there are people who rely on those penalty rates. We also understand that, if someone is working on a Sunday, it is a bigger impost on their family life than someone working on a Tuesday. Labor understands that. And our submission to the Fair Work Commission would make that clear. But to go down the dangerous path of unilaterally legislating here [is reckless].
So we support penalty rates, and tribunals. Happy times.
Updated
Resume penalty rates. The Greens, as my colleague Paul Karp reports this morning, will say penalty rates should be protected by legislation in a bid to put pressure on Labor ahead of a decision by the independent umpire, which may cut them. That’s why we are talking about penalty rates today. Another pincer movement from the Greens.
Updated
Flash back to campaign life. Mike Bowers, heading west.
Updated
Bridie alerted readers to the fact Labor’s industry spokesman, Kim Carr, was on the radio this morning, and he was asked about penalty rates. A couple of months back, the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, said his party would respect a ruling on penalty rates that will come in due course from the Fair Work Commission – which is a position at odds with Labor’s campaigning to protect penalty rates.
Shorten has been repositioned on that twice now by shadow cabinet colleagues – once by the shadow finance minister, Tony Burke, on Insiders, who reasoned that Shorten in that remark was merely expressing a principle that the Fair Work Commission was an independent body and Labor respected the independence of the organisation.
Now Kim Carr is repositioning the leader as well, carefully.
This morning he told the ABC Labor’s defence of penalty rates is absolute and I’d expect that to continue.
He was pressed on whether that statement was consistent with supporting the decision of the independent tribunal in the event the independent tribunal ruled that penalty rates should go.
Kim Carr:
We wait to see what legislation is put before the parliament at that time.
So Labor’s current position on penalty rates: an enigma, wrapped up in a riddle. Actually it’s not, it’s pretty straightforward. Evidently the leader fluffed the line when he made the first statement on this subject and now various end of lease cleaners are trying to mop up, which is hard when the primary target, the decision on penalty rates from the FWC, remains a moving target.
Updated
Good morning. I’m on Bill Shorten’s bus today. We are going to a manufacturing plant in Geelong, then to Corio for a local announcement, then a street walk.
The Coalition’s campaign spokesman Mathias Cormann has held his morning media conference and the questions are framed around the issues of the day. The first question was is the government doing enough to support car manufacturers? Labor’s policy announcement today is about supporting manufacturing workers.
Mathias Cormann:
The government is providing a lot of support to the manufacturing industry and indeed, the government’s whole national economic plan is a plan for jobs and growth. Labor is proposing more than $100bn in higher taxes which will be bad for investment, bad for jobs and bad for growth and despite more than $100bn in additional Labor taxes, compared to our policy position, they still have a $66bn budget blackhole.
Q: The Australia Institute has warned that as Australian companies pay less tax - sorry, less tax in Australia – they will have to pay more tax in the US. How can tax cuts stimulate jobs and growth if extra money is going overseas?
Mathias Cormann:
That’s commentary from the Australian Institute today is factually incorrect. It’s completely and utterly wrong and ill-informed. More competitive company tax rate will attract additional investment, it will boost productivity, it will increase the size of the economy permanently by more than 1% in the long term. It will lead to more jobs, it will lead to higher real wages over time and of course it will lead to additional revenue for government over time which will help underpin additional investments in schools, hospitals, roads and so on.
Perth for the PM's first day of campaigning in the West-forecast 100% chance of JBish @murpharoo @GuardianAus pic.twitter.com/mJ4VP8oxWE
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) May 15, 2016
Thanks to Bridie for the morning toil. Good morning everyone and welcome to the great continuum of history. This is not my own characterisation but rather Christopher Pyne’s characterisation of the most exciting time to be alive during his interview with ABC Radio National this morning. It seemed an appropriate way for me to kick off week two of campaign 2016.
The continuum of my current thinking for the purposes of this opening post spans only this past weekend, which kicked off with the leader’s debate in western Sydney, which I scored for the Labor leader Bill Shorten, then rolled on with a brief confected moral panic on national security and some attention-seeking from Tony Abbott, who launched his local campaign with a flag as big as a bus and described his former chief of staff’s television commentary as “riveting”.
The people of Australia, meanwhile, took refuge in Eurovision. Perhaps that was just me. In any case, Eurovision is over now, and a new week dawns, bright as a spring sunrise that happens rather perplexingly in late autumn.
Malcolm Turnbull and his press entourage has tracked due west. Bill Shorten is down south. The early morning news cycle has mostly been “my industry policy is better than your industry policy” – preparing the groundwork for the announceables of the day ahead.
Speaking of announceables, today’s comments thread is open for your business. If the thread is too bracing for you, Mike Bowers and I are up and about on the twits – he’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo. If you speak Facebook you can join my daily forum here. And if you want a behind-the-scenes look at the day and the looming campaign, give Mike a follow on Instagram. You can find him here.
Sound the French horn, or perhaps the lute, here comes Monday.
Updated
My time with you this morning draws to a close and Katharine Murphy is here to guide the good ship Politics Live.
Calla Wahlquist brings us a photo in real time of the Bill Shorten bus in Melbourne. He is due in Geelong by about 10am.
The Shorten bus is about to head to Geelong. @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/VFpKB64BcB
— Calla Wahlquist (@callapilla) May 15, 2016
I’ll see the early birds again tomorrow morning.
A glance at the front pages this morning. Not necessarily all campaign-related, but the issues being covered are relevant to it.
Daily Telegraph sounding the horn on intergenerational warfare:
The Daily Telegraph front page. Monday 16 May 2016. @dailytelegraph #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/KWyvbHNDRW
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) May 15, 2016
Same-sex marriage is on the front page of the Age. Bishops are trying to exert some influence:
The Age front page. Monday 16 May 2016. @theage #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/Ulsx1KMogJ
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) May 15, 2016
The Australian continues its extensive coverage on the Greens:
The Australian front page. Monday 16 May 2016. @australian #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/UZhbqYPyJx
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) May 15, 2016
Updated
Christopher Pyne was also asked about Labor’s policy announcement of the day – $59m to save manufacturing jobs as Holden, Ford and Toyota stop production in Australia.
It’s a big issue in South Australia.
Well $59m, of course I welcome anything that the Labor party wants to offer, we’ve already spent over $200m on next generation manufacting program.
This is welcome, of course, but it’s really very much a Johnny-come-lately approach. Shorten has a plan for $100bn of new taxes so this is all rather hollow and rather late in the piece.
'Tony Abbott legacy is part of continuous Liberal party history'
Speaking of Tony Abbott, Christopher Pyne has been asked about his campaign launch with all the bells and whistles.
Pyne is asked on Radio National if Abbott realises he is not leader anymore:
Everyone loves a bit of razzle dazzle in politics. Tony Abbott can launch his campaign any way he chooses to do so.
So is Abbott right that a vote for Turnbull is also a vote for the Abbott legacy?
We are part of a great continuum of history, whether Menzies, Howard or Fraser, and Abbott is part of that ... the Liberal party has provided consistent economic leadership since the second world war and I’m proud to be part of it.
The polling today shows Turnbull may have a problem in western Sydney; most voters think Shorten would be better for the west but Liberals are still ahead on two-party preferred in most seats.
Does Pyne think the Labor campaign about wealth is starting to resonate?
I think Malcolm appeals very much to Australian public and that’s why twice as many people want him as prime minister than want Bill Shorten. Malcolm sounds like a prime minister, looks like a prime minister, and has the brains and capacity to be prime minister.
Bill Shorten has worked his way up the union ladder.
In Pyne’s home state, South Australia, there is quite a serious threat posed by Nick Xenophon and his new party. Pyne does not rule in or out preference deals with him.
We are very early in the election campaign ... I haven’t had any discussions about preferences because it’s not my job.
But isn’t Xenophon his nightmare?
I’m not a commentator, I’m an activist, I’m an advocate for Liberal and National party policies. I don’t think now is the time to be changing the government with the instability that would create.
Does he think a hung parliament is likely?
It would be the worst outcome. Malcolm has only been prime minister for eight months and I don’t think we would want to change again.
Updated
Here is footage from Tony Abbott’s interview on Sky last night in which he was asked about Peta Credlin’s prowess as a commentator.
.@TonyAbbottMHR on Peta Credlin's foray into political commentary #ausvotes https://t.co/BB8Rid5h4J
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) May 15, 2016
There’s been some grumbling about Credlin labelling Turnbull “Mr Harbourside Mansion” but Abbott doesn’t see any problem.
I think she’s been riveting viewing, but look she speaks for herself as you’d expect.
She speaks for herself, she’s made some pretty powerful calls this week and I think you’ll continue to see her being a very important and interesting commentator on this election.
Senator Kim Carr is realistic about how many voters are tuning in to the election campaign:
I’m not certain how many Australians have engaged as of yet, I believe we are making it very clear we have positive policies.
He dismisses findings by the ABC’s Vote Compass that Bill Shorten is a long way behind Malcolm Turnbull. In the survey 81% said the Liberal party made the right decision in getting rid of Tony Abbott.
I wouldn’t take much notice of this, Bill Shorten is out there talking to people day after day, I’m very confident about this election ... I wouldn’t necessarily rely on a survey like this where people dial in.
Greens policy to legislate penalty rates not getting Labor support
Labor senator Kim Carr is out and about on the airwaves for Labor this morning. On Radio National he has been asked about the Greens policy to legislate so changes cannot be made to penalty rates.
Adam Bandt is out campaigning on the issue in Grayndlor today while Anthony Albanese is in Perth where Malcolm Turnbull is campaigning today.
Carr tried not to be drawn on the Greens policy.
We have confidence in the Fair Work Commission [which is due to make a decision on penalty rates], we want to be able to secure penalty rates for Australians, we are the party that defends penalty rates, it’s the conservatives who want o push back and have people lose their penalty rates.
Carr is pushed on whether Labor would enshrine penalty rates in legislation.
We have supported penalty rates, we have made submissions to the Fair Work Commission, let’s wait for their response.
But if the FWC finds penalty rates should be reduced, would Labor move to stop the changes?
Carr not budging.
We will wait and see if the commission actually comes down with that decision.
In all my experience with the Labor party our defence of penalty rates has been absolute, I expect it to continue that way.
He was also talking about the need for government assistance in the manufacturing industry, in particular the shrinking car industry in Australia.
By international standards our support is quite modest, conservative governments around the world understand that, it’s only in Australia that you face this sort of argument [against it], that we have the ability to wash our hands of this question. We simply can’t allow so many Australians to be left in the lurch.
We need to be able to work with people to secure blue collar jobs.
We all know it is a hard slog of a campaign and a new survey has found most people haven’t even started to tune in yet – good and bad news for the leaders.
The latest iSentia analysis shows neither leader is inspiring to devotion or vitriol in past campaigns, according to Fairfax Media.
The volume of mentions of both leaders across social media, which skews left wing, and talkback radio, which skews right wing, is about half what it was at the start of the last election campaign in 2013. Most of the comment on the leaders comes from partisan supporters.
The slow start is likely welcomed by both leaders but they will be hoping it has kicked up a few gears by week five. Pre-polls open in that week and each election more and more people are voting before election day. This year it’s estimated 25% of voters will go to the polls before 2 July so the party that is winning in week five will have a strong head start on election day.
The Law Council is launching a campaign for an increase in funding for legal aid saying the system is on the brink of collapse after successive cuts to funding.
Stuart Clarke, the president of the council, was just on Radio National talking about analysis that has shown 45,000 people have been forced to represent themselves since 2010 because of cuts to legal aid.
We are talking about a legal aid system that povides representation and advice to Australians who can’t otherwise afford a lawyer. To qualify for legal aid you have to be well under poverty line
Unless we do something about it, legal aid will collapse.
Asked if most people who represent themselves “miss out on justice” Clarke responded:
Very often that is the case. If you go to court unrepresented the result is often much worse than it otherwise would’ve been.
A woman forced to go to family law court unrepresented is likely get a bad result for herself and her children.
Clarke said there are economic costs to an underfunded legal aid system such as the case taking longer to go through the system.
People who go to court and get a result which is not just and not fair suffer many other problems, economic probems, emotional problems.
Legal Aid used to be funded 50-50 by state and federal governments but the Commonwealth contribution has been reduced to about 30%. Clarke is arguing for an increase in funding of $150m a year after the productivity commission recommended $200m.
Over at the Feed on SBS they have done a great skit on the Daily Telegraph’s endorsement of Anthony Albanese.
Titled Save our DJ Albo Untz Untz Untz, the video examines the reasons for the Tele’s campaigning for Alabanese – it’s quite funny and it has the elusive endorsement of the Tele’s editor.
Love it. @TheFeedSBS #auspol https://t.co/468fQc7bZI
— Christopher Dore (@wrongdorey) May 14, 2016
The women of Sky News are the focus of a feature in News Corp Australia – the election campaign line-up includes Peta Credlin, Kristina Keneally and seasoned political reporters Ashleigh Gillon and Laura Jayes.
The piece begins with quite an amazing anecdote from Gillon – she reveals a minister used to get her to do his make up every time he appeared on the show.
It got to the point where I started to think it was pretty inappropriate and I mentioned it to [David Speers]who made sure he was in the office the next time [the minister] appeared. He said to him ‘look Ash is too busy, she’s about to host a program, so I’ll do your make-up instead,’ — an offer, Gillon explained, that was quickly rejected.
Updated
Guardian Australia photographer at large Mike Bowers will be bringing us all the pictures with Turnbull today.
Heading west we think? #TurnbullMedia #Sydney #election2016 @murpharoo @GuardianAus @bkjabour pic.twitter.com/Vs14UHZveI
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) May 15, 2016
Good morning
As the sun rises on week two of the election campaign, it has been more Two and a Half Men than Game of Thrones, though winter is indeed coming. Not to worry, I will not bore you with tired bloody analogies, suffice to say the leaders are trying to play it safe and conserve energy. After the debate on Friday, which Bill Shorten won according to the audience of undecided voters, the big event of the weekend was Tony Abbott’s campaign launch in Warringah, attended by none other than NSW’s golden boy Mike Baird.
I’ll take you through to 8.30am, when Katharine Murphy will steer the good ship Politics Live through the rest of the day.
The big picture:
A new poll has shown mixed messages in the key seats in western Sydney and the NSW central coast, where voters believe Bill Shorten would make the better prime minister but the Coalition still has the lead.
The Daily Telegraph has reported the poll as Turnbull’s “eastern suburbs label is hurting him in western Sydney, with voters not yet convinced that he will do the best job for them”.
A Galaxy Poll in the western Sydney seats of Banks, Lindsay, Macarthur and Reid found Turnbull was behind Shorten as the leader they believe would be best for the area. Only in Gilmore on the south coast was Turnbull ahead.
In Lindsay, 36% thought Shorten was better for the west compared with 32% for Turnbull but Labor trailed Liberals 54%-46% in the two-party preferred. In MacArthur it was 44% for Shorten being better for the west and 29% for Turnbull while in Reid, Shorten led Turnbull as better for the west by 41% to 37%. In Banks 39% thought Shorten was better for the western suburbs while 34% chose Turnbull.
In Banks the two-party preferred was a dead heat 50%-50% while in Reid it was 51% for the Liberals and 49% for Labor.
But the polling also shows Labor picking up only one or two of the key marginal seats.
Peta Credlin, in her role of most-useful-person-for-the-Labor-party for the campaign so far, used her Sunday Telegraph column to suggest government lawyers advised boat turnbacks were illegal – a policy introduced when she was Abbott’s chief of staff.
While Scott Morrison says he will not commentate on commentators who are commentating, Abbott has no such problem and has praised Credlin’s stint on Sky News.
I think she’s been riveting viewing. But look, she speaks for herself as you’d expect.
She’s made some pretty powerful calls this week and I think you’ll continue to see her being a very important and interesting commentator on this election.
Asked if she was a burr in the side of Turnbull, Abbott responded “of course not”.
The Daily Telegraph also has the scoop on who dresses Malcolm Turnbull – himself.
He is reportedly the first prime minister in almost a decade not to have image consultants.
Liberal party strategists are comfortable the prime minister, who has a wide-ranging designer wardrobe, has the fashion sense not to require assistance.
After a dream run in the media last week, where the Greens got more mentions than they usually get in an entire election campaign, the party are announcing industrial relations policy today.
The Greens want to protect penalty rates with legislation as momentum continues for a decision by the independent umpire which may cut them, my colleague Paul Karp reports.
The policy will put pressure on Labor, and Adam Bandt told Karp the Greens were investigating two options: one to legislate the current levels of penalty rates as a floor below which the commission could not cut rates; the other to require that weekend rates be set higher than weekday rates and Sunday rates higher than Saturday.
On the campaign trail:
Turnbull woke up today in Perth, while Shorten was due to campaign in Geelong.
Turnbull had one campaign stop in the south-western Sydney marginal seat of Macarthur yesterday, while Shorten was in northern New South Wales.
The campaign you should be watching:
The campaign in the seat of Brisbane, which popular sitting Liberal member Teresa Gambaro is vacating, has been mentioned before but my colleague Joshua Robertson has written this excellent piece detailing the battle between the Liberal and Labor candidates.
Another one to watch in Queensland is Kennedy, a seat held by Bob Katter with just a 2.2% margin, reduced from the very comfortable double digits he has consistently enjoyed over the past 20 years. The Liberal party is running a gay candidate, Jonathan Pavetto – Katter once infamously said there were no gay people in north Queensland – and it will be interesting to see how much of the vote he scores, though he is based in Brisbane which will be to his detriment.
And another thing(s):
The weekend was rich in hot takes on the campaign, the parties and the leaders.
After Credlin called Turnbull “Mr Harbourside Mansion”, Laurie Oakes wrote in the Herald-Sun that his wealth was becoming an issue in the campaign and has long been a concern for senior Liberals:
Nick Minchin, rightwing powerbroker and government Senate leader in the Howard years, also had concerns about how punters would react to tough economic decisions made by someone so clearly rolling in dough.
According to Paddy Manning’s Turnbull biography, Born To Rule, “Minchin once said that Malcolm Turnbull could never be prime minister while he lived in ‘that house’.”
Annabel Crabb and David Marr both have books coming out on Turnbull and Shorten respectively and they were extracted in the Good Weekend.
Marr noted the changes in Shorten once he became leader – and not always for the better.
There was no huge enthusiasm for him in the party. He was not seen as a miracle worker. But he was bricked in to the job. Yet his response to victory was drab. He barely celebrated. He seemed to shrink. Something had happened.
The books are both updates to Quarterly Essays.
Crabb has spent time considering what Turnbull has learned in the seven years since he last became leader.
Where once the air was thick with tales of Turnbull rages, or the acidly fluent character assessments for which he has been famous his whole life, the early part of his prime ministership has been reasonably calm on that front. “That’s what happens when you get what you want,” observed one cabinet colleague succinctly.
We have been inundated with podcasts this campaign but the best one in my humble and unbiased opinion is Australian Politics Live with Lenore Taylor and Katharine Murphy. The first episode has Mathias Cormann and Penny Wong as the guests.
The outsourced slogan of the day:
Thanks to a constituent 2day 4 suggest'g a new campaign slogan 'With Bill Shorten the bill never shortens!' So true!! @SkyNewsAust @abcnews
— Josh Frydenberg (@JoshFrydenberg) May 14, 2016
Updated
