Let's ground the bird
Malcolm Turnbull is back in Canberra, Bill Shorten is in Brisbane. The campaigns have folded their respective tents, so that’s enough for today. Thanks very much for your fine company.
Let’s summarise, succinctly.
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Malcolm Turnbull tried to keep ahead of his same-sex marriage plebiscite problems, Bill Shorten tried to keep ahead of the sense that Labor is losing the final week of the campaign, and Richard Di Natale wasn’t entirely clear whether the Greens would negotiate with Labor on offshore processing or not in the event of a minority parliament.
This blog will be back tomorrow morning at first light. Until we meet again, enjoy your evening.
Updated
Derryn Hinch on the marriage plebiscite.
A plebiscite is better than nothing, so you have to vote for it.
Derryn Hinch on entering politics: 'You'll know I'm there'
David Leyonhjelm and Derryn Hinch are on Sky News now. Hinch actually has a decent prospect of success with his Senate campaign. The broadcaster points out that the Coalition’s anti-independent advertising has not targeted him or Leyonhjelm. Perhaps the government thinks they can work with them, Hinch says with a chuckle.
Hinch is busily warming up to the prospect of being able to use parliamentary privilege to name and shame people, sex offenders and the like, which is one of his favourite past times.
You’ll know I’m there.
After a brief interval.
If I get to Canberra, Derryn Hinch will listen.
(I hope you’ve all braced yourselves.)
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More of the prime minister speaking to his new friends on regional radio. This excerpt is from the chat this morning in central Victoria. Folks who have been watching intently the whole campaign will remember Chris Jermyn, the Liberal candidate who could not explain the Liberal party’s health policy but was an expert on the closing times of a bunch of local pizza restaurants. There’s been a few other japes since that high point several weeks back.
Q: Let’s go to one of the candidates in our area. We are broadcasting in the Bendigo area in central Victoria. Chris Jermyn, Liberal candidate you would know well from McEwen, your face is on all the posters with him of course – he is under scrutiny because of his electoral address. Do you support him?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Well he is the endorsed Liberal candidate and he has the party’s support and my support but I can’t, you know obviously if there are issues, the issues that you raise, they are matters to be determined by the AEC, but I have been talking this morning with Megan Purcell, our candidate in Bendigo, and she is a young economist, a businesswoman. She’s got her own retail business and she’s there today announcing federal funding to support the restoration of your amazingly handsome soldiers’ memorial in Bendigo which is much admired and needs a bit of love I think.
Q: OK,y, well that’s good news indeed, but back with Chris Jermyn. You give him your unqualified support?
Malcolm Turnbull:
All of our candidates have my support absolutely.
Q: Including Chris Jermyn?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Well he is one of our candidates and he has my support and I encourage the electors of McEwen to vote for him as the Liberal candidate.
Q: When you first heard this story though, what had happened here with this vacant block, did you want to get rid of him? I mean, you have a captain’s pick. Did you actually want to – you must have been furious when you heard about this?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Well can I say to you, I understand your interest in this matter but you know the big choice that we’ve got on Saturday is who is going to form a government. Who is going to provide Australia the leadership that it needs, the strong economic leadership it needs, and the only way to ensure that your vote supports a strong Coalition majority government and a clear national economic plan is to vote for Liberal or National candidates. There is no other way to do that and that is the most important choice. The issues that you’re raising, I understand why the opponents of the Liberal party want to raise those matters. If there’s been some issues they can be dealt with by the AEC, but fundamentally what we are choosing on Saturday is the next government of Australia and that decision is critical to our future.
Updated
The Labor leader Bill Shorten’s decision to nudge the door open in relation to a federal anti-corruption commission hasn’t gone down well with the Institute of Public Affairs. The IPA’s Simon Breheny:
A key responsibility of government is to uphold the rule of law. The risk of entrenching an Icac-like body at the federal level is that it may strip away legal rights, such as the right to silence. The risk to the rule of law and to legal rights is very significant. Corruption commissions at the state level have become show trials. Important rules of procedure that protect individuals against an overbearing state are ignored in the context of these public hearings. After a high court case against NSW Icac found that it has failed to act within its statutory powers, the federal government should reject the idea of implementing anything that resembles such a regime at the federal level.
Interesting Shorten did this today. It suggests he’s in nothing-to-lose territory. Unions tried to get up a commitment on an Icac at Labor’s national conference this time last year, but it got squashed. Flat.
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A couple of Instagram views of the campaign today. Anthony Albanese, by Alex Ellinghausen of Fairfax Media.
And the Turnbulls with dumplings in Hurstville, from the prime minister’s official photographer, Sahlan Hayes.
Updated
Meanwhile, in the west.
Checking out the coffee bean poll @ Miss Maud's Midland with former PM John Howard! Come 2 Midland Gate and say hi! pic.twitter.com/F6YXTCnpQT
— Ken Wyatt MP (@KenWyattMP) June 29, 2016
My colleagues Lenore Taylor and Gabrielle Chan have been working for a couple of days to deliver some cut through on the post-election environment.
I’ve been saying for much of this week that the prime minister can’t really offer voters a guarantee of stability with regards to implementing his agenda post-election because he’s not in control. Depending on what the voters decide, and the national polls (if we believe them) tell us the election is close, either leader, Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten, faces a risk of a hung parliament. Then there’s the Senate. I don’t think anyone is forecasting a scenario where a major party emerges on 3 July with control of the Senate.
So Gabi and Lenore have been talking to as many of the major independent players as possible, and the Greens, about their positions on key policies, such as the Coalition’s company tax cuts or Labor’s negative gearing concessions. And the outlook is like this.
The Coalition’s full company tax cut plan and many of its long-stalled ‘zombie’ savings have little chance of becoming law after the election, a Guardian Australia survey has revealed, despite Malcolm Turnbull’s claim only Labor would face the ‘chaos’ of negotiations with minor parties and independents.
And if Bill Shorten was to form government after Saturday, he would be forced to negotiate to get his plans to limit negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions through the Senate.
You can read the full piece here.
Updated
If you’ve hung in with the coverage all day you’ll know the prime minister did a radio blitz earlier. A lot of the stations he spoke to I wasn’t able to stream on my handy radio app, so I’ve been waiting for transcripts. They are starting to come in now. This is some opening sortie from the presenter on ABC south coast radio.
Q: Prime minister, there’s a perception from some community leaders in Eden-Monaro that the Liberal member, Peter Hendy, has been missing in action. Is that why we’re speaking to you this morning?
Malcolm Turnbull:
I’m speaking to lots of local radio stations around Australia today and indeed as I have been this week but, no, Peter Hendy is an outstanding member – he’s a very important member of my team and a very important member both as the local member and assistant minister in the Coalition government. The choice really, Simon, is between a Coalition majority government, stable with a clear economic plan for the future, or a vote for Labor or the Greens or the independents [that] has all of the horrors of a hung parliament, parliament in disarray, a Greens-Labor-independent alliance and a high debt, more deficit, high taxes. It’s not what Australia needs right now. We need stability and a clear plan, and that’s what we have.
Q: Well it’s good to be able to speak to you this morning. But you must be worried about the Coalition’s ability to retain Eden-Monaro. Is there a chance that it could lose its bellwether status on Saturday night?
Malcolm Turnbull:
You know I’d say to you, the voters of Eden-Monaro have a very, very solemn responsibility because each voter in Eden-Monaro and each voter in every electorate in Australia should treat their vote as though that is the one vote that will determine the next government. The choice, as I said, is between a stable Coalition majority government, which I lead, with a clear economic plan that’s fully funded, fully costed, bringing the budget deficits down, bringing the budget back into balance, supporting business, driving jobs in Eden-Monaro and around Australia. On the other hand, the Labor party with a very anti-business agenda, the most anti-business I can remember in generations and of course, the prospect, as they’ve admitted and owned up to, of higher deficits and more debt and of course higher taxes, particularly on investment. How is that going to help jobs and business opportunities in Eden-Monaro?
(Labor has been quite confident about Eden-Monaro, but we’ll see what Saturday night brings.)
Updated
This little insight is quite lovely. Watch the two women, members of the prime minister’s staff, handle a mass walk by when there’s a negative poster of the boss potentially in the camera shot. The clip is self explanatory, really. Campaigns take a village.
Staff strategically positioned on the PM's streetwalk. #auspol #ausvotes @abcnews @ABCNews24 pic.twitter.com/TNvB8Dx4xt
— ABCcameramatt (@ABCcameramatt) June 29, 2016
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An attack outside a mosque would appear to be motivated by political events
Julie Bishop also provides an update about events in Turkey.
There were three separate attacks on the Istanbul airport. This is a very popular tourist destination. Of course, many people travel through Istanbul airport. It is one of the most travelled airports in the world. So this tragic attack, which we utterly and absolutely condemn, comes on the back of other attacks, terrorist attacks, in Turkey. Australia stands united with the people of Turkey in condemning this atrocity, and we will continue to work internationally and locally to combat terrorism in all its forms.
She’s also asked about an incident outside a Perth mosque on Tuesday night. My colleague Ben Doherty reported this morning a car was set on fire as hundreds of worshippers attended a prayer service inside. No one inside the Thornlie mosque was injured when the white four-wheel-drive exploded shortly after 8pm near the Australian Islamic College in Perth’s southern suburbs. Anti-Islamic graffiti was also sprayed on a fence.
Q: There was a car petrol bomb that went off out the front of a local mosque here last night. How seriously does the government take those sorts of crimes?
Julie Bishop:
Obviously we are deeply concerned about this. We condemn any form of violence. An attack outside a mosque would appear to be motivated by political events. We believe that this matter should be fully and thoroughly investigated and I’m confident that it will be. We condemn any acts of violence that have the potential to harm people, and particularly when people are harmed.
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The foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, is speaking to reporters in Perth. She still won’t say what her position is on the marriage equality vote. She says the government is holding a plebiscite and the government will respect the plebiscite. She dead-bats a follow-up question about her own view.
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Let's take stock
I said first up we were now in pure politics territory in the campaign, but today is more mud wrestle than pure anything. Let’s assess the sum of the parts.
- Malcolm Turnbull is attempting to close the campaign on his terms, but he has been hit by questions about divisions in his own ranks about the marriage equality plebiscite, which he’s attempted to shrug off. Today the prime minister has said don’t worry about the naysayers and the abstainers, parliament will pass a bill legalising same-sex marriage if Australians vote yes at a plebiscite. How do we know this? Well, we were asked to trust the prime minister’s analytical faculties.
- Turnbull said he wanted the plebiscite dealt with as soon as possible, hopefully by year’s end in the event he’s returned to government on Saturday. Turnbull brushed off a specific question about whether the government would fund both the yes and the no cases, and what the respective budgets would be. He also didn’t answer whether voting would be compulsory, although a spokesman for the prime minister tells me it will be. In addition to that, Turnbull has been making new friends in regional radio stations around the country, and being told off by elderly train commuters in Hurstville.
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Bill Shorten has had a scrappy morning, but attempted to reset with his daily press conference. The Labor leader woke up to an inconvenient newspaper report about him backflipping on his position on the same-sex marriage plebiscite. Then he couldn’t answer when Labor last delivered a surplus on breakfast television, complete with a mouth gesture best characterised as *look, I’m a blowfish.* But he attempted to get back into stride with a press conference in which he dismissed leadership questions post election (with Anthony Albanese standing beside him, see earlier note about scrappy) as “silly”, before returning fire on Malcolm Turnbull on the plebiscite and on internal divisions in the Coalition. Shorten likened Turnbull to David Cameron, a prime minister who couldn’t control the right of his own party, and has consequently led Britain into rolling woes. He also opened the door on examining the establishment of an integrity commission post election.
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Richard Di Natale had a final pitch press conference in Melbourne, and in the process, opened the door on doing a deal with Labor on offshore processing if the voters of Australia deliver a hung parliament. He’s only partially shut said open door, and I’m continuing a conversation with the Greens leader in an effort to fathom precisely what he means.
Sound the horn. Gather the nags. Come, we ride.
Updated
It’s past time for a summary. I’ll post one shortly.
Why should we believe anything you say?
Malcolm Turnbull wasn’t greeted with uniform warmth in Hurstville. John Howard lied to us, why should I believe you? Never a more exciting time to keep smile firmly fixed while cameras roll.
PM Turnbull at Hurstville meets a commuter "why should we believe anything you say" @murpharoo poolvid-@mearesy pic.twitter.com/W99HKz4otD
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) June 29, 2016
Updated
So readers can be clear about what I’ve asked, here it is.
.@RichardDiNatale If Labor says no on camps but yes on increased humanitarian intake, what will the Greens do? Support Labor, or not? 2/2
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) June 29, 2016
Greens: still ambiguous
Readers with me earlier today know that I came out the other side of a press conference from the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, not really comprehending what the Greens position was on offshore detention if they were negotiating with Labor in a minority government situation.
I tweeted the Greens leader seeking clarification. He’s answered my inquiry, but you can see the Greens position is still ambiguous. We want the camps closed. We will do everything we can to close the camps.
I’ll try again and keep you posted.
.@murpharoo Greens position is non-negotiable. We want to see an end to offshore detention & will do everything we can to close the camps.
— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) June 29, 2016
Updated
Back to reliability and the PBO
Bill Shorten during his press conference referenced a statement from the parliamentary budget office about some of the Labor party’s costings. Shorten responded to reports that the PBO rated its estimates of revenue from negative gearing and capital gains tax changes as of “low reliability”.
Earlier today, Shorten seized on a new PBO media release, suggesting that it cleared up the matter. In fact, the PBO’s new media release simply states that “all policy costings, no matter who they are prepared by, are subject to uncertainty. The level of uncertainty surrounding a costing varies depending on such factors as data quality, strength of underpinning assumptions and the volatility of the costing base. The reliability rating is not a reflection of the policy proposal or the quality of the costing analysis.”
In short, the PBO costing is the best estimate we have. But nothing in the new PBO statement negates the central point that the revenue estimates of the negative gearing and capital gains tax costings have “low reliability”.
Updated
Now there are a bunch of things to clear up. Bear with me.
Q: Do you agree perhaps this issue has the potential to tear your party apart? You’re telling the Australian public you’re offering stability but how can we believe that when already we’re seeing outbreaks within your party over this issue?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Look, I honestly think that you are – you are – you run the risk of exaggerating this.
Updated
Q: Will it be compulsory voting in the plebiscite and do you intend – how much money do you intend to make available for the yes and no cases?
Malcolm Turnbull:
The administrative details have not been finalised but I expect the plebiscite to be very similar to the mechanism used for a referendum.
There are a number of details to work out, but it will be as close as possible to the mechanism for a referendum, because again, that’s appropriate, it’s fair, it’s well accepted, it’s standard sort of procedure.
Updated
Turnbull was asked about David Cameron’s view on same-sex marriage: he supported it because he was a conservative.
Me too, Malcolm Turnbull says.
David Cameron said that, and I have said exactly the same thing, and very often quoted him, actually. So I have precisely the same view. Whether it’s David’s party, the Conservative party in the UK, or my party, the Liberal party of Australia, there is a range of views, as indeed there is on the Labor side, as I’m sure you know.
So people have a range of views on this issue. My view is that we should legislate to enable people of the same sex to be married, so legislate for gay marriage, if you like, and I’ve held that view for awhile. I’ve explained why I hold that view. I’ve gave quite a long lecture on it some years back. So my position is very well known, it’s fully explained.
And when the plebiscite is held, both Lucy and I will be voting yes.
Updated
'From my point of view, I would like the matter to be dealt with as soon as possible.'
Marriage equality then.
Q: Prime minister, your two most senior ministers, Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop, have been using weasel words in the last 24 hours on whether they would actually vote for marriage equality if the plebiscite passes. Do you accept that the plebiscite, which was supposed to give certainty in this area, has done the opposite and it is a back door for Liberals in your party to vote against abstain in the parliament if the plebiscite succeeds?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Well, thank you for your address. Can I just say to you that there are few things in politics that are certain, but one thing that I would say is an absolute certainty is that if the plebiscite is carried by the Australian people, same sex marriage will be legislated for by the Australian parliament.
It will sail through the parliament. Believe me.
Q: How can you be so sure when it will sail through when you have ministers saying they might abstain and others playing ducks and drakes on this issue?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Because I have a very good understanding of parliamentarians and the realities of politics.
Q: Shouldn’t it just be more than just “it will sail through”, shouldn’t you as a leader demand of your party that they accept the will of the Australian people at that plebiscite, whether it goes down or is voted up, that they accept the will of the people, and implement it as a matter of principle?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Well, it is – in our party, it will be a free vote. So how members respond to the plebiscite is a matter for them but you’ve already heard from senior politicians who will vote no against same-sex marriage in the plebiscite who have said they will vote for it in the parliament ...
There may be others who will choose to abstain but I can assure you ... all of us who live in the real world of real practical politics know that if the Australian people speak in favour of same-sex marriage in the plebiscite, it will be legislated. There is no question about that.
Q: Prime minister, how quickly are you going to move after the election to fix up this? Is it going to be one of your first order priorities to get the mechanics of this worked out so we can make a decision?
Malcolm Turnbull:
It will be dealt with as quickly as possible. And I am reasonably optimistic that a plebiscite could be held before the end of the year, given that – I would expect parliament to resume – whoever wins the election, I would expect parliament to resume in the first week of August or thereabouts.
And so there is time – there should be time to legislate for the plebiscite mechanism and have the plebiscite held before the end of the year. From my point of view, I would like the matter to be dealt with as soon as possible.
Updated
The opening batch of questions to the prime minister were on election promises.
Q: Has your party learned from breaking promises after the 2013 election?
Malcolm Turnbull:
We’re absolutely committed to all of the promises, the commitments that we’ve made in this election. As you know, we have spent much less in this campaign, much, much less than the Labor party. And our economic plan is laid out in the greatest detail in the budget. And checked off and ticked off in the pre-election fiscal outlook independently by the objective judgment of the departments of finance and treasury.
Q: You will deliver on all of your election promises? Absolutely guaranteed?
Malcolm Turnbull:
We will deliver on the promises that we’ve made. We will deliver on the promises that we’ve made and commitments that we’ve made and the commitment to our national economic plan is set out in the budget.
Q: No GST increase under you?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Absolutely not! Absolutely not!
Updated
I’ll track backwards now to do a better job on Malcolm Turnbull’s press conference. Always difficult when the two events happen at once. Stand by.
Q: There’s questions over the reliability of your negative gearing and capital gains tax in terms of your costings and also combine that with the questions over hospital funding, considering there’s only four years budgeted in your costings. What are you going to do to try to win the economic argument in the last few days?
Bill Shorten says the parliamentary budget office has cleared this up.
The PBO has released a statement today. They are aware that people are saying that what they’ve said is unreliable. The PBO is saying the exact opposite.
I haven’t seen the PBO statement. I’ll chase it up.
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull's ball and chain
Q: Does the stand-off in the UK prove to you that giving rank and file leadership a say is a bad move?
(This question is about Jeremy Corbyn, a leader Labour will have trouble getting rid of.)
Bill Shorten:
Good try.
What the UK shows at the moment is a little picture of what happens when you have a weak leader who isn’t in control of his party, who makes promises during an election campaign that can’t be fulfilled. Cameron promised the Brexit poll. And it’s ended up very badly indeed. Not just for him personally, who cares about that? It’s ended up bad for Britain, it’s ended up bad for the international economy.
And that’s what happens when you are so weak that you have a right-wing rump in your party that is dragging you behind. It’s like a ball and chain, and you can see it on Turnbull as well. You can see that ball and chain dragging behind him as he tries to get around this campaign.
It’s not the flu that’s causing him the problem. It’s the weight that he’s carrying.
Updated
Anthony Albanese is asked whether he thinks he could have done a better job than Shorten.
Q: We’ve heard Bill’s assessment of the past three years and the unity of team. How do you think it’s gone? Has he done enough and would you have done any differently?
Anthony Albanese:
Well, everyone has seen the last three years. What they’ve seen is the Labor party under Bill Shorten’s leadership that’s taken the initiative on policies. Policies across the spectrum. Education, health, infrastructure, the economy. We haven’t been a small target at this election. And that is to the credit of the leader, Chris Bowen and the entire team, and I back our team.
I have had the total support of Bill Shorten and the leadership team. They have given me the freedom to go out there and negotiate with the sector, the sort of comprehensive plans that we see being brought forward today. And that’s why we are in a position of forming government, hopefully on Sunday.
My objective, I spent 12 long years in opposition. And I think I stand by my record. I understand that the key is whether you’re round the cabinet table, not dividing up spoils of opposition. No one in our show is interested in that.
What we’ve been interested in for three years and we’ve done each and every day as a united team is: how do we get back into government, not so that we can sit there for ourselves, but so that we can make Australia a better country?
Updated
Bill Shorten is asked why he didn’t represent Malcolm Turnbull fairly yesterday when he only used part of a quote from the prime minister about politicians not keeping their promises. I don’t accept the assumption of your question, that Mr Turnbull’s being quoted unfairly.
Q: When Malcolm Turnbull says that Labor had one position on the schoolkids bonus and then they did another thing, is he wrong?
Bill Shorten:
Well, the idea, the proposal to get rid of the schoolkids bonus, that was Malcolm Turnbull’s decision.
Updated
How many seats does Malcolm Turnbull have to lose?
Bill Shorten is asked a question about the TPP, which he doesn’t really answer, and then he’s asked how he’s feeling ahead of Saturday. Shorten repeats the line he used earlier about a discernible mood for change.
Then he’s asked the leadership question.
Q: How many seats to you need to win to prevent your colleague Mr Albanese becoming the next Labor leader?
Shorten’s riposte is quite good.
Bill Shorten:
Seriously silly question. We’re in it to win enough seats to form a government. How many seats does Malcolm Turnbull have to lose before Tony Abbott moves on him? For the last three years, we’ve worked very hard. We learnt the lessons of 2013 and we are unarguably the most united we’ve been in probably two decades. And I’m very grateful to my team for that.
Q: On Four Corners the other night you appeared to leave open the door to a possible resettlement refugee deal with New Zealand if you win the election. Are you considering a possible deal with New Zealand and would that not act as an incentive for people to come by boat to eventually be resettleed in a first-world country like New Zealand?
Bill Shorten:
Well, I appreciate the ABC’s doing a bit of cross-promotion of their show there. I stand by my comments that I made to the Four Corners show. And indeed, let’s also be very clear here: when it comes to deterring people smugglers, on July 3, if Labor’s successful, it’s going to be the same blunt opposition, the determined opposition, to people smugglers, that we had on July 2.
The real issue today is one of economic leadership.
This is the prime minister, rebuking the press with a smile. Malcolm Turnbull says jobs is the main game, and anyone who doesn’t have a secure job with a government agency knows that.
The question was from an ABC journalist. Sick burn to the ABC.
Back to Shorten.
'It will be legislated, there is no question about that'
I need to part ways with Shorten (I’ll come back) because the prime minister is speaking about the marriage equality plebiscite in his press conference.
Malcolm Turnbull has fielded about five questions on the plebiscite about internal divisions in the Coalition. He acknowledges that there may be government MPs who choose to abstain in a same-sex marriage vote. But he says there is no question that if people vote yes at the plebiscite then parliament will legislate to end the current discrimination.
Turnbull says he’s also reasonably confident that the plebiscite could be bowled up by the end of this year. Turnbull says the parliament will resume in August, and it should be possible to conduct a plebiscite by year’s end. Turnbull says he wants this issue dealt with as soon as possible.
Updated
Shorten opens the door on an integrity commission
Bill Shorten opens the door on a federal Icac in response to a question about Eddie Obeid.
In terms of issues about federal integrity, I am definitely supportive of the federal Labor party, if we form a government, of reconvening the Senate committee investigating the value and the benefit and the pros and cons of a national integrity commission, that was set up by the Senate, which Labor supported. It’s now been stopped because of this election. We want to get back to the business of getting the Senate to investigate the merit of a national integrity commission.
Updated
Q: From an international perspective, if you become prime minister at the weekend, you will be the fifth Australian prime minister in just over three years. What can you say that would reassure people that your leadership will be any more stable than that over the last few years?
Bill Shorten:
We’ve got positive policies to invest in people, to invest in infrastructure, to make sure that we’ve got new industries in addition to our mining and resource industries which are supported. We’ve got fully funded policies and we’ve made some hard decisions.
What we’ve done is trust the Australian people. We’ve shown the Australian people respect in this election campaign by outlining our policies. And we are most committed to working as a united team, which I think is in stark contrast to the current conservative government in Australia, and what we have done, for the last three years of opposition, is we’ve worked hard to provide a positive policy agenda for Australia which focuses on promoting Australian jobs, focuses on providing our young people and mature-aged students the best possible quality education that a nation can give its people and, of course, preserving our universal health care system.
We want people in Australia to be able to go and see a doctor when they’re sick and not be discouraged by the price and the cost of health care.
Updated
First question is why isn’t the West Connex in Labor’s infrastructure plan? West Connex has plagued Albanese throughout the campaign.
Bill Shorten:
We absolutely support the West Connex project. But let’s face it: the government has made a complete mess of it and I might get Anthony to explain to you quite how they’ve made the mess that they have.
Anthony picks up on mess. He says the environment minister, Greg Hunt, has questions to answer about the EIS.
Updated
'I genuinely observe and discern a mood to change the government'
Bill Shorten says he thinks, as the campaign moves into end game, that things are coming into focus.
I genuinely observe and discern a mood to change the government and we are going to fight this election right down to 6pm on Saturday night because our issues are biting.
Anthony Albanese:
I’m very proud that the Labor party remains the party of nation building. In Bill Shorten we have a leader who understands infrastructure, who’s provided every support, to me as the shadow minister, over the last three years, to back in the commitments that we’ve made during this election campaign.
(These two aren’t close. Just saying.)
Updated
The Labor leader addresses reporters in Sydney
Bill Shorten is now in the Sydney electorate of Kingsford-Smith, and he’s opening his press conference on the theme of infrastructure.
Only Labor’s got a proper policy for cities. Only Labor has a policy to have a first-rate national broadband network. Only Labor’s got a consistent commitment to public transport.
He’s accompanied today by Anthony Albanese.
Fairfax photographer Alex Ellinghausen has a nice composite of the Riverwood community.
Meanwhile, in nearby Riverwood.
Updated
I hope Mr Bowers snaffled a dumpling.
Street walking in Hurstville.
Updated
I’m not the only person asking.
@murpharoo @RichardDiNatale could you clarify please Mr Di Natale? This would definitely affect my vote.
— Steph de Silva (@StephdeSilva) June 29, 2016
I’ve asked the Greens leader to clarify the position on offshore processing via twitter. If I get an answer, I’ll share.
Hi @RichardDiNatale confused after presser & I'm not there. Is yr position on offshore processing no deal with ALP, or deal maybe? #ausvotes
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) June 29, 2016
Right now I think a fair interpretation of what Richard Di Natale just said is the Greens will maybe move on offshore processing during an (entirely, at this point, hypothetical) minority government negotiation with Labor, although how you move when you’ve declared you want the camps closed is a mystery to me.
Q: If Labor give up a lot in regards to refugees – would you be willing to negotiate on that point, offshore processing?
Richard Di Natale:
This is a hypothetical but we have said this will be the starting point of any negotiation. It is a negotiation. That is what a negotiation means. We will put forward these issues as part of our costed policy platform to the Labor party in the event of a close election result. Then we will take it from there.
Di Natale walks back offshore processing: 'It is a negotiation'
Richard Di Natale walks back the never-ever of offshore processing a jot. It’s a negotiation.
Q: You won’t sign up with any other party unless offshore detention is scrapped?
Richard Di Natale:
We will put these positions forward as a starting point for any negotiation. They are our position – they are the starting point for any negotiation. It is a negotiation. To go into – as we did in 2010, we had a list of measures that we put forward to the then Labor party and we saw significant change. We didn’t get everything that we wanted when this came to those clean energy laws but we got a hell of a good climate package, something that the International Energy Agency described as model legislation.
What we are saying is these will be the starting point of any negotiation should there be a close election.
You will see significant improvement in all of these areas if the Greens are elected in a close election.
Updated
'What Malcolm Turnbull is sitting on inside his party room is a ticking time bomb'
Richard Di Natale says a vote for the Coalition is a vote for instability.
We are seeing the issue of the plebiscite unravel now. Just today Scott Morrison ruled out supporting legislation in the parliament. When pushed he wouldn’t say that he would respect a plebiscite and vote in support of marriage equality.
What Malcolm Turnbull is sitting on inside his party room is a ticking time bomb. They are divided. They are a party room that will splinter and fragment if they win the election.
You look at what the Greens have offered over recent terms of parliament. You look at what we will deliver if we are returned both in the Senate in the lower house. Responsible, accountable, negotiations that respect the decision of the Australian people in these key seats. That is what we will bring, a force for stability. Compared to the two parties who have been racked by internal division and chaos.
Greens rule out any deal with Labor on offshore processing
Back to Melbourne and Richard Di Natale.
Q: Would you be willing to negotiate some form of offshore processing with the Labor party if it meant that they would accept more refugees?
Richard Di Natale:
We have made our position on offshore processing absolutely clear. There is never any reason, no policy problem so difficult as to justify locking up young kids, families in offshore jails indefinitely, knowing that they are being harmed, some are being abused, when they are perfectly innocent, having committed no crime.
That can never be a response to any policy problem. We have said clearly that our starting point is this – we don’t accept that a decent society could ever damage young kids, innocent children, in an effort to send a message to someone else.
No, we won’t accept offshore processing. It needs to stop. We think that we need to have those camps closed.
Updated
Meanwhile, in Sydney, the prime minister is making his way through Hurstville.
The PM doing another street walk in Hurstville, taking selfies. pic.twitter.com/710j9wG7vN
— joe kelly (@joekellyoz) June 29, 2016
Richard Di Natale says the Greens platform will form the basis for any future negotiations with the major parties.
In particular, some areas we want to highlight. First and foremost, climate change, the big moral, economic and social challenge of our generation, to paraphrase a former Labor party PM. We will make sure strong climate laws are a critical component of any discussion that we have going into the next parliament. Strong renewable energy targets. Ensuring we have science-based emissions targets and reinforcing the architecture that we established after the 2010 election.
More decency towards innocent people seeking refuge in this country, finding a better way through the mess that is the bipartisan cruelty adopted by the government and the Labor party. We want to see an end to offshore processing.
We want to support and expand Medicare-funded dental care rather than cut it which we now understand is not just the position of the government but also of the Labor party. What great hypocrisy that we have a campaign around saving Medicare when it now appears that the Labor party want to abandon that incredibly important reform, Medicare-funded dental care.
We want to end the unfair tax breaks that disproportionately benefit people on high incomes. We want to have a treaty with our Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander brothers and sisters. We think the time has come to genuinely reconcile and take this discussion forward in a direction that we know is incredibly important to address the wrongs of the past.
We want to see marriage equality once and for all. That means moving away from this divisive idea of a plebiscite and to legislate.
Updated
'We will be a force in the next parliament'
The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, is talking to the media now, flanked by Greens candidates in Melbourne.
Richard Di Natale:
I’m very hopeful come July 2 we’ll be welcoming some new faces into the federal parliament. We will be a force in the next parliament. We will have an important role to play in the Senate, no question about that. We will also potentially have the opportunity, if it is a close election, to be able to deliver on some key outcomes.
Updated
It is very much time we had a federal anti-corruption body put in place.
This is the independent Tony Windsor, who is holding a press conference, which is being streamed live on Facebook, on the need for a standing commission against corruption, a federal Icac. He thinks the body needs to look at associated entities and political lobbyists.
Tony Windsor:
We need to have closer scrutiny. We run the risk of our democratic process not being trusted by the people. We can’t have a system where dollars buy policy.
Updated
The prime minister has, meanwhile, ridden the train to Hurstville and Mike Bowers says his plan is to have yum cha. Or possibly drink tea with his son and daughter-in-law.
Advancer fail if PM ducks the big questions today? pic.twitter.com/il8b5E6D1k
— Matthew Knott (@KnottMatthew) June 29, 2016
Five paws Matthew Knott from the Sydney Morning Herald.
In the 2010 campaign I was with Tony Abbott when he stopped in for a meal at Golden Century in Sydney. It was crazy, not to put too fine a point on it.
Updated
This morning Bill Shorten is special guest at a singalong at the Riverwood Community Centre.
Wednesday morning singalong at Riverwood Community Centre #ausvotes @2GBNews pic.twitter.com/CLrK7zvpF2
— Stephanie Borys (@StephieBorys) June 29, 2016
Terrific picture from last night. Bill Shorten addressing residents in Nowra at a town hall meeting before moving on to Sydney.
Updated
I’d lost count but Frank Keany hasn’t, bless him.
Radio count this morning:
— Frank Keany (@FJKeany) June 29, 2016
PM - 2GB, ABC Bendigo, ABC Bega, Triple M Sydney and will be on 6PR soon.
Shorten - RN Breakfast, 2DayFM
It’s still three sleeps until polling day, but the crocodile has spoken.
Of COURSE @TheNTNews makes its election prediction using a psychic crocodile, nothing else will do 🐊🔮 pic.twitter.com/jaOSnmq6WS
— Josh Butler (@JoshButler) June 28, 2016
Crikey’s political editor Bernard Keane has the best zinger in response to the croc poll.
This is about as accurate as every poll available at the moment https://t.co/YQi9XbChde
— Bernard Keane (@BernardKeane) June 28, 2016
Speaking of Julie Bishop – the government has condemned deadly terrorist bombings at Turkey’s largest airport, while urgently trying to establish if any Australians are among the dead or injured, according to the news wire service AAP. The terrible incident in Turkey has, unsurprisingly, dominated today’s morning news cycle. Here’s AAP with a wrap of reaction.
The foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, has extended Australia’s sympathies to Turkey after what appears to be a co-ordinated terrorist attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk airport.
At least 50 people were killed and dozens more injured in Wednesday’s suicide bombings. The foreign affairs department is urgently trying to determine whether any Australians are involved. Authorities had secured the area of the attack and closed the airport for 48 hours, Bishop said in a statement.
The opposition’s immigration spokesman, Richard Marles, says the bombings are a reminder to Australia to be vigilant in the face of terrorism, which has become a feature of our lives. Australia had some of the best terrorism agencies in the world, he told Sky News on Wednesday.
Coalition cabinet minister, Mathias Cormann, called the attack “just another shocking example” of the uncertainty in the world.
Australians are being advised to reconsider travel to Istanbul and those already in the city are warned to remain attentive to their surroundings.
Updated
Interesting story from Andrew Burrell in the Australian this morning. He says the Curtin division of the Liberal party – “the wealthiest and most powerful in Western Australia – has passed a motion condemning the Turnbull government’s controversial changes to superannuation which will hit the retirement savings of many in the blue-ribbon electorate. The motion means the issue will be debated at the Liberal party’s state conference in August and will put pressure on Curtin MP and Liberal deputy leader, Julie Bishop, to defend the unpopular changes against claims by party members that they are unfair.”
It seems like a lifetime ago Bishop couldn’t explain the transition to retirement scheme on the Neil Mitchell program. At least she’s had plenty of time to get across the budget measures.
Updated
Meanwhile on the ABC, in central Victoria.
The PM continues talking as he's warned he's running out of time. He's cut off by the beeps and the news theme.
— Frank Keany (@FJKeany) June 29, 2016
Rob Oakeshott versus Ray and Alan: 'It’s me versus the Nats, 2GB and the Oz'
The independent Cowper candidate Rob Oakeshott has booked blanket commercials for the past two days during radio shows of 2GB broadcasters Ray Hadley and Alan Jones in his area as part of a strategy to combat their editorials against him.
Oakeshott, who is challenging the National MP Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper, told Guardian Australia he had decided to announce his candidature late (on 10 June) due to the expected campaign against him in sections of the media.
“I decided to roll myself up into as small a ball as possible – just be a normal member of the community – and then go late and hard in order to neutralise the expected rubbish from commercial media,” Oakeshott said.
“Otherwise, as is now on full display, [media] come in and muddy the waters. If it was me versus the Nats, it would be a very different strategy. But it’s not. It’s me versus the Nats, 2GB and the Oz. Thankfully, the majority in the community can see it for what it is.”
Oakeshott, who was first elected to state parliament in 1996 before leaving to become independent in 2002, said the media landscape and the polarisation of politics had changed markedly during that time. Since he left the federal parliament in 2013, he has been a patron and founding board member of the Public Interest Journalism Foundation.
“For the fans of West Wing, the gutter war does shape political strategy,” he said.
“I think political parties have very tight arrangements with select media during elections and the conversation is too often controlled by those desperately trying to hold on to power.
“Because of this, I have been forced to spend heavily in certain for-profit media outlets, in order to neutralise those [media] voices.”
Updated
The prime minister is on ABC radio now in central Victoria. Losing count of the interviews, now. Five? Six?
Meanwhile, in Tasmania.
Libs at war with each other in Tasmania. So much for unity and stability. #politas pic.twitter.com/eyKzooTSXK
— Tim Beshara (@Tim_Beshara) June 28, 2016
Readers might recall that Richard Colbeck could have reasonably expected to be at the top of the Tasmanian Senate ticket as senior minister but was punished by Eric Abetz presumably for voting for Malcolm Turnbull in the leadership contest. Now a local supporter seems to be coming to Colebeck’s aid. Vote one, Richard, followed by anyone you like.
Updated
'I guess I was an adult': the full exchange
Earlier, I shared a Vine the Liberals have cut of Bill Shorten on breakfast television this morning, where he was quizzed about the last time Labor delivered a surplus. The Vine catches “I guess I was an adult”. Here’s the full exchange.
Q: OK let’s talk about economic credibility. It has been a big week with Brexit obviously. Isn’t getting the budget into surplus the measure of credibility?
Bill Shorten:
We’re getting back to balance at the same time as the Liberals. But what we won’t do is smash household budgets. What happened in Brexit is a whole lot of people who feel alienated and marginalised and forgotten by government, said to government: ‘We’re not going the way you want us to.’ The point about it is, in Australia if we properly fund our schools, if we make sure that sick people can afford to see the doctor, I believe we’re keeping the stability of our society together, unlike Mr Turnbull whose ruthless cuts will smash the system.
Q: How old were you when Labor last delivered a surplus?
Bill Shorten:
I guess I was an adult.
Q: Do you know how old you were?
Bill Shorten:
I would have been in my 20s. But the point about that is, Karl, how long has it been since the Liberal party delivered a surplus under this government? They came to government in 2013, they said they would deliver surpluses. Now they’re not guaranteeing to deliver a surplus until the 2020s.
Q: You were 22, you’re 49 now. That was an awful long time ago.
Bill Shorten:
When was the last time you saw the Liberal party deliver a surplus?
Q: We just want to talk about Labor though.
Bill Shorten:
Well it’s actually a two-horse race. What we can say under our economic policies is that we will get the surplus to balance the same time as they will. But we won’t smash family payments for families who earn less than $100,000. We’ll make sure that some of the parents that are watching the show today that they can afford to go to work and pay for the childcare and get properly reimbursed.
Q: You’d just finished uni.
Bill Shorten:
I’d have to say, remember Mr Abbott and Mr Turnbull said they would get to surplus? They haven’t done it. They had three years to do it. They promised in 2013 they would and again in 2016. They’re now not promising to do it in the next term of government.
Q: The last Coalition surplus was certainly a shorter time ago than the last Labor.
Updated
Does Morrison plan to abstain in the same-sex marriage vote?
While I’m in the completeness business, here’s the exchange between Leigh Sales and Scott Morrison on 7.30 last night. Who knows what the treasurer means, but one reasonable interpretation on this unseemly stonewalling is Scott Morrison intends to abstain from a final vote. Perhaps someone might ask him that if he pops his head up somewhere today.
Leigh Sales: If we can turn to another matter before we run out of time: the same-sex marriage plebiscite. If your own electorate voted against same-sex marriage in the plebiscite, would you vote against same-sex marriage in the parliament?
Scott Morrison: I’ve always said, Leigh: I’ve been a proponent of the plebiscite. And my view is: if the plebiscite is carried nationally then the legislation should pass. If the pleb ...
Leigh Sales: So would you vote for it?
Scott Morrison: If the plebiscite is not carried, then I think that settles the matter.
Leigh Sales: No, no: but if the plebiscite is carried, will you vote for same-sex marriage?
Scott Morrison: I have said that I will respect the outcome of the plebiscite.
Leigh Sales: Why can’t you just answer that question clearly: would you vote for same-sex marriage?
Scott Morrison: Leigh, I’ll use my words. You can use yours. And you’re not allowed to put words in my mouth.
Leigh Sales: No, no. But I would like clarity.
Scott Morrison: I have said that I will respect the outcome of the plebiscite entirely.
Leigh Sales: But I would like clarity for our audience ...
Scott Morrison: You got it.
Leigh Sales: ... and I [said] that answer doesn’t make it clear.
Scott Morrison: Well, I beg to differ.
Leigh Sales: Would you then vote for same-sex marriage: yes or no?
Scott Morrison: What I will do is respect the outcome of the plebiscite. And if the plebiscite passes, then the legislation will pass. I give you that commitment.
Leigh Sales: With your vote?
Scott Morrison: I will respect the outcome of the plebiscite.
Leigh Sales: I’m not sure why you can’t answer if it will be with your vote.
Scott Morrison: Because, Leigh, I get to choose the words I use as a politician. You get to use the words you use to put questions. And that’s how it works.
Updated
For the record, here’s what Bill Shorten said on Radio National about supporting the concept of a marriage equality plebiscite two years ago and not supporting one now.
Bill Shorten:
Since 2013, there’s been two developments: community attitudes have moved on in Australia. I think that’s a demonstrable fact. Secondly when you look at the experience in Ireland, over a year ago, some of the arguments which emerged were really ugly and repugnant. So I’m sure that some people think the plebiscite’s the way to go. I no longer have that view. And what’s more is I know that Malcolm Turnbull agrees with me. The problem is he doesn’t run his political party.
Updated
The Liberals have also been quick this morning to distribute a short clip of Bill Shorten on breakfast television, not entirely clear about when Labor last delivered a budget surplus.
Both leaders are in Sydney this morning.
The Short Bus is headed to Riverwood, in the NSW electorate of Banks! #StGeorgeRepresent pic.twitter.com/s2ZTQ5nrOu
— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) June 28, 2016
Readers with me on Politics Live yesterday will know that Bill Shorten got himself in a tangle yesterday by overreaching on a quote from Malcolm Turnbull. Shorten tried to present a quote from Turnbull as being a reflection on politicians not keeping their promises, which it was in isolation, but when viewed in proper context, it was actually setting up a critique of Labor not keeping promises. Labor cut an ad yesterday using the Turnbull quote, which I shared on the blog. The Liberals hit back pretty quickly with a counter ad, which I’ll share now.
Updated
If you’ve just tuned in, picking up the marriage equality vulnerability for the prime minister I flagged in my opening post, last night two senior government ministers, Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop, fronted separate ABC programs. Both refused to say how they would vote on same-sex marriage in the parliament if there’s a positive plebiscite result. Morrison was asked six times to share his position, to no avail.
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull is about to do his fourth radio interview of the morning, in Perth.
Out of policy, into pure politics
Good morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday. Yesterday we passed an important milestone: both sides have now produced their election costings. That means we are out of the policy phase of the election and we are pure politics until the end. At the start of the week I said to you it’s like WWE: big hair, short shorts, and lots of attempts to chuck opponents over the ropes, out of the ring, into the audience. Also there will be a full frontal advertising assault until the blackout kicks in, which I think is late tonight.
Both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten have been hitting the airwaves since first light, Turnbull in particular. The prime minister has upped his radio game significantly in the past few days. He’s bombing marginal seats around the country in between his events on the hustings, ringing in to stations in Adelaide, the NSW north coast, the NSW south coast, as well as syndicated programs. That’s a smart way to go, it means you have visibility around the country when you are obliged to be in one place. Tony Abbott pursued that strategy to great effect in 2013.
If I put myself in a helicopter (metaphorically, naturally, you can’t do live coverage from a helicopter) and fly up to survey the contest in these closing days, this is how it looks this morning. Malcolm Turnbull is vulnerable on the marriage equality plebiscite. The divisions between the Liberals are on display in this final week, giving voters a less than reassuring glimpse of the future. This is a very serious fight, and if voters are looking closely they will register that it’s not just a testy conversation about a single issue, it’s a proxy fight about the exercise of power post-election. If Malcolm Turnbull wins on Saturday, he’d better hope the victory is emphatic.
Bill Shorten is vulnerable on a few fronts: a story has surfaced in The Australian which records him supporting a marriage equality plebiscite two years ago (and his explanation for this on Radio National just a little while ago wasn’t particularly compelling given surely the explanation (if you are telling it straight) is surely dead simple: I’ve changed my mind; but his biggest vulnerability in my view is not one newspaper story but his loss of momentum in this final week. While Turnbull is narrowing and simplifying his final pitch to voters, Shorten is bouncing between a bunch of fragments. There’s three sleeps to go. You really can’t waste an appearance right now, you have got to nail every single one.
Let’s crack on. A reminder today’s comments thread is open for your business. If the thread’s too bracing for you, Mike Bowers and I are up and about on the twits – he’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo. If you only speak Facebook you can join my daily forum here. And if you want a behind-the-scenes look at the day and the campaign as a whole, give Mike a follow on Instagram. You can find him here.
That’s it from me. Katharine Murphy is in next, to take you through the lion’s share of today.
See you bright and early tomorrow.
Regardless of who wins, the next government must ramp up its environment policies, according to an environmental scorecard from WWF-Australia.
“This election, in the midst of extinctions and the reef becoming a top five issue for the first time, this generation of political leaders has not yet stepped up to reflect the concerns of the vast majority of Australians,” said WWF-Australia chief executive Dermot O’Gorman.
WWF said the Coalition’s $1bn loan pledge is “the wrong tool for the job” and is “an existing climate fund rebadged as a reef water quality initiative”.
Labor’s promised $377m increase in funds are “not enough”.
The score card also assessed policies on climate change and protecting Australian wildlife.
Both major parties would need to ramp up environmental commitments in government, says WWF #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/A0wmIpzaJP
— Helen Davidson (@heldavidson) June 28, 2016
Updated
After earlier reports Turnbull called in to a Cowper electorate radio station (where the Coalition is trying to see off Rob Oakeshott), this morning the offer to talk with the PM went to bellwether Eden-Monaro.
PM @TurnbullMalcolm just rang ABC local radio in Bega & offered them an interview #ausvotes #hendy
— Liz Foschia (@lizfoschia) June 28, 2016
Updated
Shorten isn’t worried about polls which suggest Labor’s chances of snaring a win are fading, and won’t be drawn on if he would remain leader should Labor lose the election.
.@billshortenmp on @RNBreakfast with @frankelly08 #rnbreakfast #radionational #abcradio #auspol #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/2BEJdAiHCU
— Tim Stevens (@TdotStevens) June 28, 2016
Updated
Shorten is asked about his apparent change of opinion on a marriage equality plebiscite.
He says much the same as he told the Today Show this morning (see earlier post). Since 2013 there’s been a bill put to parliament and we’ve seen Ireland go through their 2015 referendum.
He says he’s changed his mind to think a plebiscite is the right option and he believes Turnbull has too but is hamstrung by internal politics.
“You and I know it’s a stitch-up so he can get some avid conservatives to vote for him in the internal civil wars of the Liberal party. That’s the only reason he’s doing it and I don’t think the rest of us should have to pay the price when the community has moved on principally, why should we have our taxes pay so Malcolm Turnbull can have a deal with the right wing of the Liberal party?
Not everyone who’s against marriage equality has an invalid view, but there will be ugly arguments rear their head.”
When asked if Labor would accept a Turnbull government had a mandate for a plebiscite if it wins on Saturday, Shorten says he won’t deal in hypotheticals and queries if Turnbull would allow a conscience vote under a Labor government.
Updated
On to superannuation. Is Labor’s policy the same as the governments?
Labor has expressed concern that the Coalition’s changes are potentially retrospective, says Shorten. “Ultimately” he doesn’t believe in retrospective policy, but you can’t form a final view when Morrison and Turnbull have said they aren’t, but “other people are saying it is”, says Turnbull.
“The best place to sort this out is from government. The changes are not due in until 1 July 2017, so we’re not proposing any new changes to super other than what’s been outlined, and we need to get to the bottom of whether or not they’re retrospective.”
Regardless, Labor has banked the savings from the changes based on Morrison and Turnbull saying they are not retrospective. But Shorten is still sceptical the government knows what it’s doing.
He said 'parties'
Shorten has defended his selective quoting of Turnbull yesterday (read more about that here).
Shorten disputes that Turnbull was talking about him, despite the immediately following comment linking it to Labor.
He reads out Turnbull’s quote (“What political parties say they will support and oppose at one time is not necessarily what they will do.”)
“He said parties. He wasn’t saying it’s just about the Labor party. I know in an election that you put forward to platform for social and economic improvement of this country. I intend to stick to our word.”
Updated
Shorten is talking to Fran Kelly over on Radio National.
He’s asked if Labor’s economic plan is the best way to future-proof the economy “given the recent shocks” like Brexit.
“It doesn’t engender stability to take a ram raid on the budget and undermine funding for our schools and hospitals.”
Can we afford more than $16bn in deficit?
“We’re making long-term reforms. We get to balance at the same time as the Liberals, but what we won’t do is rely upon zombie measures which will never pass the Senate, what we won’t do is cut funding to schools and hospitals and GPs for bulk-billing.”
Kelly is citing Parliamentary Budget Office findings that there is uncertainty around Labor’s revenue, that the forecasts are “unreliable”.
Shorten doesn’t accept the “assumptions” in the question.
“We’ve released more costed policies through the PBO than any opposition in the history of elections. when we talk about the reliability of our costings, what we’ve done is not only go to the PBO, but what we’ve also done is belt and braced the propositions that we’re advancing.”
Kelly notes Labor hasn’t released the reliability rating, but a similar one says it is unreliable.
“The government’s attacking us, that doesn’t surprise me. But what they’d never do is offer to provide their own Treasury costings. Secondly when the PBO talks about reliability, the reliability rating doesn’t reflect the quality of the policy proposal.”
He says a costings panel has given Labor’s costings a “second stress test”.
Why not release the reliability rating then, asks Kelly.
Shorten: “We’re not going to release all of our methods.”
Question: “Why not?”
Shorten: “Because the government doesn’t do it. Fair’s fair.”
Updated
News in from Perth via Australian Associated Press.
A suspected petrol bomb has exploded outside a Perth mosque as hundreds of worshippers attended a prayer service.
No one inside the Thornlie mosque was injured when the car exploded on Tuesday evening. Anti-Islamic graffiti was also written on a wall.
“This, undoubtedly is a criminal act of hate, but it is the act of a person or group not the greater whole,” Yahya Adel Ibrahim from the college said on Facebook.
The local MP who’s electorate covers Thornlie, Chris Tallentine, attended the scene of the attack.
“I feel sick that you have to endure attacks like this,” he told the community in a Facebook post.
“The truth is that this was an attack on all of us.”
Updated
Jones: What do you say to farmers whose lives have been ruined by coal-seam gas?
Tunbull says he understands the importance of groundwater and the damage mining can do, “but we’ve got to get the balance right”.
“The fundamental fact of the matter is the management ... ” Turnbull begins, but then Jones cuts him off again, while apologising for cutting him off, noting that he got in trouble “last time” for cutting him off, and by the time he’s finished apologising it’s news time and “goodbye PM”.
Updated
Hand on heart, it's an issue of fairness
Can the PM “hand on your heart”, ensure a return to surplus?
“Aren’t we pushing our young people under a bus ... asking them to pay for the greed and extravagance and waste of our generation?”
Turnbull: “It’s an issue of fairness, we’ve got to bring the budget back into balance.”
But you’ve got an $86bn deficit, counters Jones.
“It takes a while to adjust. We’ve got to remember we inherited a shocking fiscal state from Labor.”
Turnbull says the savings are in already released Coalition policy.
He’s confident most of the senators will recognise that a returned Coalition government has gone to the election with its budget and it will be respected.
Updated
We’re now on housing. What will Turnbull say to the young people who say they can’t afford to get into the market.
There’s not enough new housing construction, says Turnbull.
“It’s pretty straightforward, the problem is we’re not building enough ...
Jones interrupts again (Would Leigh Sales get away with this so easily?).
“I haven’t answered yet ... We have a cities policy. We have city deals, with one under way in western Sydney. That means we will work together with the state government, local government and other stakeholders. .. and the aim is to agree on the objectives we want to achieve, which clearly must involve an increase in affordable housing.”
Updated
Turnbull is on with Alan Jones. Both men are a little croaky this morning.
“It’s been a longer than usual campaign, Alan but it’s important,” Turnbull says. Because it’s a double dissolution election, and the people must decide on the Australian Building and Construction Commission.
Do you think people undersand the maths, Jones asks?
“Any vote for Labor, Greens or Independent is a vote for the chaos and disfunction and a parliament in disarray,” says Turnbull.
“The vote for a stable coalition majority government, bringing in the economic plan we need to secure our future ... that has to mean a vote for a Liberal or National candidate.”
Now to the ABCC.
Jones: “This is so important because the construction industry has almost 20% of young people working full time.150,000 kids start an apprenticeship exposed to a culture which Dyson Heydon described as [lists Heydon findings].
“I think what you’re saying is that no industry should be allowed to operate with that malignant culture.”
You’re absoultely right, Alan.
Turnbull namechecks the CFMEU, which is “essentially standing over employers, they don’t care about breaking the law ... and we used to have a tough cop on the beat, the Australian Building and Construction COmmisison which John Howard set up but of course Labor abolished it.”
Jones jumps in: Unions don’t care about the fines because “they’ve got the fines built into their business model.”
If you have a law-abiding construction sector you will have more jobs and growth, says Turnbull.
Updated
Morrison was not the only one to offer undefined “respect” to a future plebiscite result last night.
The foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, appeared on ABC’s Lateline and was also asked what she would do if a plebiscite was held and the people said yes.
Host Emma Alberici reportedly pushed Bishop on the issue six times.
Bishop: I would wait until I see the legislation. This is all hypothetical. What we have said is we will have a plebiscite so everybody in Australia can have their say and I support that and I think it is a good idea.
Q: But you won’t tell us how you would eventually vote, whether you would follow the mandate of the people if they have decided to vote as a majority in favour of marriage equality?
Bishop: Well, I always have a look at what the legislation says and I will respect the outcome of the plebiscite.
Updated
Bill Shorten has responded to reports of his 2013 comments about a plebiscite to the Australian Christian Lobby.
Appearing on the Today Show, he said he’d changed his views.
“Since 2013 I think the community attitude has moved on, and secondly we saw the experience in Ireland of the referendum in 2015, and we saw a lot of hateful things said in the ‘no’ case. Why don’t we just get parliament to get on and do their job, rather than kicking $160m taxpayer funded [plebiscite].”
Shorten said he had been consistent, pointing to the (ultimately unsuccessful) bill put to parliament last year.
City dwellers making a tree-change to the country are threatening the hold of the National party in its regional and rural heartland, according to a pretty interesting study out of Griffith University.
The study by Griffith Business School researcher Professor Bradley Bowden also found Nationals preferences may not be as influential as they have been in the past. From AAP:
Prof Bowden said the changing structure of Australia’s population has been a long-term trend in a number of electorates and estimates up to 20% of seats in Queensland could be affected.
He points to the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Hervey Bay as key areas where the retirement demography is in play and could dilute the National numbers at this election.
“These are places to watch where preferences will be important. Most voters are working-class, Anglo-Saxon battlers,” he said.
“The parties that do well in these types of electorates are PUP, Pauline Hanson, the Katter Party and Glenn Lazarus.”
Good morning everyone. We are another day closer to the end of this campaign, the political equivalent of Lambchop. It doesn’t feel like it’s going to stop, but eventually the credits do roll.
Let’s get straight into it. I’m holding the fort until Katharine Murphy takes over at 8.30am. We’re both on Twitter, @heldavidson and @murpharoo. Photographer Mike Bowers is traveling with the prime minister, and you can catch him at @mpbowers.
Wednesday. T minus three days.
The big picture
The Coalition released its costing yesterday, two days after Labor and three days before the last-minute effort by Tony Abbott’s opposition in 2013. The key takeaway is a Coalition classic. A crackdown on welfare and pensioners, saving $2.3bn.
Lenore Taylor took a look at exactly how the old, infirm and unemployed will help pay for all the football stadiums and CCTV cameras promised over the last eight weeks.
Fairfax’s Peter Martin called it a “get out of jail free card”.
“If it looks as though you’ll be in the red, you simply add in a figure for general unspecified savings and, magically, your problem’s solved,” he writes.
The Australian Financial Review’s Laura Tingle labelled the welfare crackdown “the one you keep in your back pocket just in case”, and was incredulous about the “detail” of the savings which will apparently come from it.
Here are said details pic.twitter.com/lvp61Uk98G
— Laura Tingle (@latingle) June 28, 2016
Appearing on ABC’s 7.30 last night, the treasurer, Scott Morrison, spruiked the announcement and hit Labor for forecasting a bigger deficit.
He also refused to say if he would vote in favour of same-sex marriage if a plebiscite calls for it.
He repeatedly said he would “respect the will of the plebiscite” but when pushed wouldn’t exactly clarify whether respect equalled voting in line with its result.
What does this mean?
Let’s work off the presumption a plebiscite will match current opinion polls and the people will vote yes. Morrison can’t at this moment say he would vote against one of Turnbull’s key election commitments without completely undermining it. To say he would vote with it is a pretty uncontroversial move, and a number of Coalition MPs have said as much already.
So will he “respectfully” vote against a yes result? Will be abstain? What does this kind of waffle do to either side’s claims about the benefits or uselessness of holding a plebiscite?
The end of that @ScottMorrisonMP interview with @leighsales reads like a Clarke and Dawe sketch. #ausvotes #abc730 pic.twitter.com/mtkyW67KMT
— Declan Fay (@declanf) June 28, 2016
Labor has said it wouldn’t hold a plebiscite, wouldn’t do a “deal” with the Coalition, and would instead put a marriage bill before parliament as its first act of government. At the Labor campaign launch last week, Bill Shorten described a plebiscite as a “taxpayer-funded platform for homophobia”.
That view is in contrast to what he expressed at the time of the 2013 election, the Australian has reported this morning. The paper has resurfaced a video of Shorten addressing an Australian Christian Lobby conference in his electorate during the last federal campaign. He reportedly told the crowd he would prefer a parliamentary vote but didn’t think it would vote yes for some time.
“Personally speaking, I’m completely relaxed about having some form of plebiscite,’’ he reportedly said, adding that he was, however, not comfortable with a referendum. “I would rather the people of Australia could make their view clear on this than leaving this issue to 150 people.”
Still on Shorten for a moment, he addressed a town hall meeting yesterday and when asked about Indigenous inequality gave more credit to the former prime minister Tony Abbott than Turnbull.
“I thought he was more interested in it than Malcolm Turnbull ... Of course I’m not sure Tony got all the issues but he was certainly interested. Certainly if we were elected we would reach out to the electorate and say ‘let’s get on with it’.”
It’s a view likely shared by the professor of governance at Darwin’s Charles Darwin University, Don Fuller, who wrote to Turnbull asking the federal government to step in and look at the issue of people ripping off Indigenous communities and misusing taxpayer funds. Fuller received no reply for for three months, and so wrote to Abbott instead, who got back to him within a week.
There hasn’t been a great deal said about Indigenous issues this election. Neither candidate has visited Durack, the largest electorate in the country which also encompasses a large Indigenous population. The Kimberley region is currently experiencing a despairing suicide crisis. The rate among Indigenous people in the area is seven times that of other Australians, and there are calls for a royal commission, Calla Wahlquist reports.
On the campaign trail
The PM is in the Sydney electorate of Barton (held by Labor with 4.4% but radically different after electoral redistribution) this morning. He’ll be catching up with Alan Jones for an interview just after 7am, before heading to Canberra for a National Press Club appearance tomorrow.
Shorten will be just nearby for the morning, in the marginal Liberal seat of Banks (held by David Coleman on 2.6%). He’ll be pushing on the rising costs of medication and seeing a doctor.
The campaign you should be watching
Someone has taken it upon themselves to conduct what appears to be robocalling residents in the Cowper electorate, urging them to vote for hopeful returnee senator Rob Oakeshott. It’s not him.
Automated phone messages saying "Protect Medicare-vote Oakeshott" r now happening.I might agree, but it is not me.Whoever it is,please stop.
— Rob Oakeshott (@RobOakeshott1) June 28, 2016
Oakeshott is looking increasingly threatening as a challenger, illustrated by none other than Turnbull cold-calling a local radio station to support incumbent Luke Hartsuyker, the Sydney Morning Herald reports.
Cowper was considered a safe Nationals seat, won by Hartsuyker with a 13.2% margin. But Oakeshott, whose home of Port Macquarie was moved from the seat of Lyne to Cowper in a redistribution, is closing in. A Seven News ReachTel poll earlier this month found a 50-50 split on two-party preferred.
And another thing
I’ve focused a bit on Brexit lately, but it is hard to look away. Let’s go over the pond today, where Donald Trump has found the whole thing rather inspiring.
Our friends in Britain recently voted to take back control of their economy, politics and borders.
I was on the right side of that issue – with the people – while Hillary, as always, stood with the elites, and both she and president Obama predicted that one wrong.
Now it’s time for the American people to take back their future.
So far so Trump, but just for something extra, he’s made the remarks standing in front of a wall of crushed aluminium. It’s supposed to be some sort of statement about manufacturing but it’s ... not great.
This is the most passive-aggressive work of campaign advance I have ever seen. pic.twitter.com/tqfJGCKxTm
— Garance Franke-Ruta (@thegarance) June 28, 2016
exclusive look at the crew putting together the wall for this speech pic.twitter.com/BWQW44CdPX
— Mark Berman (@markberman) June 28, 2016
This seems like an appropriate moment for today’s Douglas Adams appearance.
“Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made president should on no account be allowed to do the job.”
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