Enough for this evening
That will do for today I reckon. Thanks very much for your company for this special edition of Politics Live. We’ll be back in the morning to thunder with nostrils flaring until the contest ends next Saturday night.
Let’s take stock of a big day.
Malcolm Turnbull used his campaign launch to declare a vote for the government was a vote for stability and certainty in troubled post-Brexit times. In case voters missed the message he explicitly urged voters in marginal seats to resist the urge to flirt with minor parties and vote one Liberal/National in both houses, otherwise chaos would ensure. The Coalition would deliver economic security and national security, the prime minister said, overlooking all the uncertainties that are, frankly, pretty hard to overlook. Post Brexit, the boats were also back in force. The government keep the boats out, unlike the dreadful chaos merchants.
Bill Shorten held a second campaign launch in Brisbane to kick off Labor’s final week. Anticipating the stability offensive from Homebush, Shorten declared you can’t have stability without unity, and without a prime minister in a position to lead his party and exert authority. Additionally, Labor used launch day to release its final costings and they confirm a Labor government would worsen deficits over the forward estimates to the tune of $16bn. Over the long term, Labor’s structural savings kick in and the bottomline is better than the Coalition’s.
The Greens also launched their campaign in Melbourne. There were no new policies, but there were fighting words about standing up to vested interests. “We stood firm against the climate-deniers in this government,” Greens leader Richard Di Natale said. “We paved the way on issues like medicinal cannabis. We passed laws on multinational tax avoidance. And of course we put power back into the hands of voters by reforming the voting system in the Senate. We are the only party who can be trusted to stand up to vested interests. We’ll make sure that big business and the super rich pay their fair share so that ordinary people can get access to decent schools and hospitals.”
Have a lovely evening. Join us tomorrow.
My colleague Mel Davey snapped the Greens leader with his chief of staff, Cate Faehrmann, in Melbourne just after the launch.
Di Natale has just finished his speech at the Greens campaign launch @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/D8RrMSLqU6
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) June 26, 2016
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A couple of views of Tony Abbott at today’s launch. A distance short of happy, but everyone did what they had to do.
Can the Coalition really promise certainty when uncertainty abounds?
Some quick thoughts on certainty flowing from the Liberal campaign launch today.
Even if a Coalition government does not face a hung parliament (and with more than five independents looking likely to be elected in the lower house that cannot be assured) it will definitely need the backing of either the “chaotic” Labor and Greens in the upper house, or the votes of Nick Xenophon and his senators and a handful of other independents, including possibly Jacqui Lambie and Pauline Hanson.
In truth, major parties have almost never been able to guarantee certain passage for their agenda. And demanding voters return to the Coalition in the interests of stability ignores the reality that they might be deserting the major parties for a reason.
His own late-term ascent to the prime ministership means Turnbull has been forced to go to the polls with deep uncertainty hanging over some of his own policies – even some he mentioned in his launch speech. “A strong economy means a mum whose kids are now at school and wants to work a few more days, or work full time, will have plenty of opportunities to do so. And our childcare reforms will make it easier for her to do so too,” he said. And they would, except the Senate has rejected them and is likely to continue to do so because the Coalition insists they are tied to cuts to family payments. Their future is, in fact, uncertain.
“A strong economy means we can meet and beat our international obligations to address climate change and do so without massive hikes in electricity prices as Labor would do,” he said, except the Coalition is being deliberately opaque about how it will make its Direct Action plan workable.
Even the $48bn in company tax cuts at the heart of Turnbull’s re-election bid cannot be guaranteed. The stated positions of Labor, the Greens and Xenophon suggest the Senate is likely to pass tax cuts only for companies with an annual turnover up to $10m.
If not now, then soon
Just a quick backtrack to catch a bit more of the Greens launch. Richard Di Natale said earlier today the party he leads is growing in power. He told supporters that the Greens remained hopeful of picking up key lower house seats come polling day, particularly in inner Melbourne electorates.
However, he conceded that the party may need to focus on the long-term game for several seats it has in its sights, saying “even if they don’t turn Green this election, they will be Green seats in coming elections”.
The Greens hopes of gaining seats such as Wills, Higgins and Batman in Melbourne, and Grayndler and Sydney, took a hit after the Liberals announced their preferences would flow to Labor ahead of the Greens.
However, Di Natale said he was not making any concessions by admitting that picking up anything more than a couple of seats might be tough come 2 July.
“It’s just a reflection of reality,” he told reporters. “It will be tight. I think what you’ll see in a number of these seats it will go down to the wire.
“And if we have a bit of luck, we’ll pick up one or two of those seats. If we don’t, then beware the next election. Because the tide is turning. We are seeing the Greens vote continuing to grow in many of those lower house seats.”
Q: What about those unlegislated savings measures, that are stuck in the senate?
Scott Morrison:
These are our policies. And we are putting them to the Australian people. Labor have put their policies.
Q: They may never pass.
Scott Morrison:
The same can be said for Labor’s policies. But they are putting them to the Australian people, as we are.
Q: On the count of savings, Labor says their long-term budget is more accurate than yours, you have banked on zombie measures that have never passed the parliament. Can you guarantee they will pass the parliament?
Scott Morrison says the government’s plan is being put to voters this coming weekend.
That’s the plan we need to take the economy forward. But I make this other observation on the unlegislated measures. Labor keeps shifting their position. Things they said they were opposed to, like the school kids bonus, like the pension assets test, the freezing of local government indexation of payments and things of that nature – they flipped on.
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Q: Do you think that Labor deserves some credit for releasing their costings today and allowing a bit of clear air between now and the election?
Scott Morrison:
I’m not going to give Labor the credit for increasing the deficit by $16.5bn. They tried to release it under the cover of the campaign launch. You don’t get credit for increasing the deficit.
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Scott Morrison says a vote for Labor, or the Greens and independents, will be a vote for a higher deficit, of at least $16.5bn, and higher debt and taxes.
Labor’s approach will reduce the buffer that we are building at a time when we need to increase it. It will make us more vulnerable at a time of uncertainty and volatility, at a time we need to make [the budget] stronger.
The treasurer, Scott Morrison, is addressing reporters in Sydney now.
Scott Morrison:
Labor, under the cover of the government’s campaign launch, confirmed the threat they pose to our national economy, in these very uncertain and these very sensitive times.
Labor confirmed that they are a triple A threat to our triple A rating, because, today, Labor confirmed the following: they confirmed they’ll increase the deficit by $16.5bn.
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Labor has produced this chart of the comparative budget positions over both the forward estimates and the medium term in an effort to keep voter’s eyes on the 10-year story, which is obviously a stronger budget repair story than the four-year story. Labor red line, Liberal blue line.
Labor's comparative budget position in a chart #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/zOR5rSLP69
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) June 26, 2016
The difficulty Labor has, however, with the four-year story is highlighted by the convulsion around Brexit. Given the risks of a global economic shock, there’s not a lot of room to move in the budget in the event stimulus was required. Labor was able to offer substantial stimulus during the global financial crisis because there was room to move in the budget. Much harder to do that now and certainly harder to have that room to move if your fiscal consolidation over the four years is slower than the Coalition’s.
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Again from Labor’s fiscal policy document, some pertinent notes. I mentioned earlier the Coalition’s super reforms and what Chris Bowen said about them in the Brisbane press conference (we’ll consult on retrospectivity but preserve the same revenue envelope) – dot point one is the specific language on super from the document. Additional particulars follow on the efficiency dividend and the fate of the energy supplement for Newstart recipients. If you came along to our fairness debate in Sydney or listened to the subsequent podcast we had a conversation about the energy supplement, which reduces the value of Newstart even further.
- Given Labor’s concerns about the government’s superannuation changes, including retrospective elements, Labor would consult with stakeholders and take a broader examination of all these measures on coming to government.
- Labor would also investigate how to replace the 2016-17 budget efficiency dividend measure and the 2015-16 MYEFO efficiency target for national cultural and collecting institutions in the 2017-18 budget with new measures aimed to achieve the same level of budget savings through genuine efficiencies that are not targeted at staffing, including targeting contractor and consultant costs, advertising and travel.
- The opposition has not been given the opportunity to properly scrutinise the government’s removal of the clean energy supplement or seek advice from the department on its effects. In government, Labor will seek further advice on the impacts of this measure. Labor has already confirmed that we will conduct an independent review of the adequacy of the Newstart allowance – to ensure it can keep people out of poverty while also helping people into work.
Back to costings, I mentioned before Labor’s policies increase the deficit by $16.5bn over the forward estimates.
This is the rationale from Labor’s fiscal statement about why the budget position worsens before the structural savings begin to kick in.
Labor has prioritised the need to protect Medicare, deliver needs-based schools funding and boost jobs through nation-building infrastructure In the near term. As a result Labor will achieve more modest budget improvement than the government over the forward estimates. However, our savings are substantial and build steadily over time, permanently improving the budget over the medium term. The more modest fiscal consolidation over the forward estimates of around 0.2% of GDP per year (on average) is more than made up for by Labor’s structural savings over the medium term. Labor is sensibly and responsibly building savings through a deliberate strategy to help support the Australian economy through a transition in an uncertain global economic environment, and to run larger surpluses over the medium term.
Labor also argues the government’s budget position “is inflated by more than $30bn of unlegislated saving measures (so called “zombie” measures), which will never pass the parliament.”
If these unlegislated measures are removed from the government’s budget, Malcolm Turnbull’s deficit increases by 50% in 2019-20, from $6bn to $9bn. If the government was honest and transparent, and abandoned the pretence that these measures will ever pass the parliament, the government would barely be in surplus over the medium term.
Back to Wentworth
Just while Murph has her head in the Labor costings document – a quick report from the protest in Malcolm Turnbull’s electorate this morning.
The former Liberal leader John Hewson addressed hundreds of people protesting in the normally subdued Sydney suburb of Double Bay – minutes from prime minister Turnbull’s harbourside mansion – calling on Turnbull to take stronger action on climate change. Speaking at the protest at the same time as Turnbull addressed the party faithful at the Coalition’s campaign launch, Hewson said the Coalition’s lack of action on climate change was a “national disgrace”.
“I think climate change should be the dominant issue of this campaign – it should have been for quite some time,” sad Hewson, who was a once the local member for the seat of Wentworth, which includes Double Bay. He said short-term politicking from both sides left targets that were inadequate and policies that weren’t going to meet those targets. “The one thing that hasn’t failed is people like yourselves. The community is way ahead of the political leaders and the business leaders on this issue,” he said, urging the crowd to push political leaders for a bipartisan approach to climate change. “Enough is enough, it’s time to act,” Hewson said.
A spokesperson from GetUp, which organised the protest in coalition with three other environment groups, estimated there were about 2000 people in the crowd.
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Chris Bowen is asked about the AAA credit rating and whether Labor will support the government’s super measures. On super, Bowen says Labor has concerns about the retrospective nature of the changes but it will commit to raising the same amount of revenue as the government from tightening super concessions. On the credit rating Bowen says look at the structural improvements to the budget over the 10 years, because the ratings agencies will. He says Labor will return to budget balance in the same year as the Coalition.
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Q: I think there’s barely been a forward estimate in a budget that’s actually turned out to be achieved. They’ve all been missed and most spectacularly. Beyond your comments about the Liberals, why shouldn’t Australians look at those forward estimates and go, yeah, right?
Chris Bowen:
I think the Australian people want a political party, an alternative government with a plan not just for the next 10 days but for the next 10 years. That provides certainty going forward.
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Always a bit tricky, trying to read and report simultaneously. We’ll get there.
Chris Bowen is asked at the press conference in Brisbane whether Labor is trying to bury its costings by unveiling them on the day of the Liberal launch.
Chris Bowen:
This is a funny way of hiding something, in a press conference with 40 journalists? And seven TV cameras? And multiple still cameras – I don’t think this can be an accusation fairly levelled.
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ALP plan has smaller surpluses than govt 20-21 to 22-23. But then much bigger beyond that - about $13.7b by 26-27.
— Shane Wright (@swrightwestoz) June 26, 2016
Here’s the comparative bottom line over the forward estimates as calculated by the West Australian economics editor, Shane Wright.
ALP's plan increases deficits on forwards by $16.5b - in a collective budget of $1.9 trillion
— Shane Wright (@swrightwestoz) June 26, 2016
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$2bn budget improvements, additional, today
There are additional savings measures being announced – a further $2bn in budget improvements over the medium term.
Capping tax deductions for managing tax affairs
- From 1 July 2017, Labor will place a $5,000 cap on the deduction individuals can claim for the cost of managing their tax affairs. The average taxpayer claims $366 as a deduction against the cost of hiring an accountant to help with their tax return. Only about 40,000 people – less than 0.5% of all taxpayers – will be affected by the introduction of this cap. The cap will not apply to small businesses with positive business income and annual turnover of less than $2m. The independent Parliamentary Budget Office has costed this measure and estimated it will save $295m over the forward estimates and $1.7bn to 2026-27.
Removing the private health insurance rebate on “junk” policies
- Labor will remove the private health insurance rebate from policies that only cover public hospital treatment. The rebate is supposed to help relieve pressure on the public health system. These policies do not do that because families end up on public hospital waiting lists anyway. That means taxpayers are subsidising these policies through the rebate, while at the same time paying for the treatment people end up receiving through the public health system. We will put a stop to this kind of double dipping by private health insurers. The independent Parliamentary Budget Office has costed this measure and estimated it will save $135.1m over the forward estimates and $384m to 2026-27.
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Labor and costings
Labor is into its costings announcement now in Brisbane. The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, says, as well as working closely with the independent Parliamentary Budget Office over the past three years, Labor’s costings and final budget position have been signed off on by an independent costings panel consisting of Prof Bob Officer, Dr Michael Keating and James MacKenzie.
Chris Bowen:
I want to make clear, we’ve asked a panel to examine the rigour and the process. We did not ask, nor received, endorsement of the policies themselves. We didn’t ask them for policy advice. We asked them to examine the assumptions and underpinning process. That is what they have provided.
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Updated
Stable. Government.
Just in case you missed the theme of today. I’ll share some more pictures from Mike Bowers next.
Then we’ll move on the Labor’s election costings.
Updated
Back in Wentworth
I mentioned earlier on this morning that, back in Malcolm Turnbull’s electorate, there has been a sizeable climate protest. My colleague Mikey Slezak has been on the scene and he’s shared some pictures. I’ll share some words from him in due course.
John Hewson says renewable energy is where #jobsandgrowth will come from. pic.twitter.com/dMMFstqYzL
— Michael Slezak (@MikeySlezak) June 26, 2016
Protesters chant "Choose the reef, not coal" in @TurnbullMalcolm's electorate in Double Bay. @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/PUFD11HQEQ
— Michael Slezak (@MikeySlezak) June 26, 2016
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Back in Melbourne
While the Liberals have launched their campaign in Melbourne, the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, has walked down the green carpet to a standing ovation and a cheesy uplifting backing track. “We have never been in better shape,” he told the crowd. “We take into this election campaign an optimistic, positive message.” He said these include policies to tackle growing income inequality, implementing marriage equality, a plan to transition to renewable energy and tackle global warming, and a vision to shut offshore detention centres. “People are fed up with being ignored with an election campaign that has not addressed the challenges of this century,” he says. “And they’re looking to the Greens in growing numbers. “We have a historic opportunity at this election to build on the team that we’ve assembled here. We have so many wonderful candidates in every single lower-house electorate across this country and don’t for a moment listen to those people who are currently in those seats who think that they’re entitled to them, who think we don’t have a right to stand against them. Those seats belong to the community and the community will decide about who represents them.” The Greens was the only party that could be trusted “to stand up to vested interests”, he added. “We stood firm against the climate deniers in this government. We paved the way on issues like medicinal cannabis. We passed laws on multinational tax avoidance. And, of course, we put power back into the hands of voters by reforming the voting system in the Senate. “We are the only party who can be trusted to stand up to those vested interests. We’ll make sure that big business and the super rich pay their fair share so that ordinary people can get access to decent schools and hospitals.”
Updated
Let’s catch up on several things before we push forward.
Be (productively) afraid
A few things about the Turnbull pitch and about choices with the launch.
Today is the first time I recall seeing attack ads played at a party launch. It’s also the first time I’ve seen such specific targeting in a prime ministerial message. The instructions for voters were highly specific: do not vote for anyone other than the Coalition, particularly if you live in one of the country’s 20 most marginal seats. Do not vote tactically. Vote strategically. If you want certainty, then vote for the incumbents and we’ll deliver it.
Now what does this mean?
This is the truly vexatious thing about political reporting. Events like today always have multiple possible interpretations. The simple interpretation would be the election is genuinely on a knife-edge and the Coalition is gripped by wild-eyed terror not at the Labor/Greens alliance they keep banging about but at the risk it will be them trying to form a minority government in a week’s time with independents in the lower house and another grab bag in the senate. Hence all the Vote One, over and over again, please: give us a majority. Please.
Another interpretation is they think they are already over the line but the majority isn’t decisive enough for the prime minister to be able to deliver stable government within his own party. Remember this election from Malcolm Turnbull’s perspective is not as simple as a win is a win. He needs to win strongly enough to be able to lead with a mandate from the public. So if the result isn’t yet decisive enough in his estimation, he needs to push for stronger victory – that is entirely in his interests and it would be consistent with the messaging we saw today.
There’s one theme we can underscore with the entire pitch, and it’s where I opened today. It’s voter disaffection. The Liberals are acknowledging upfront that there’s a proportion of the electorate that wants to give them a kicking, that is disappointed with the whole trajectory of the last term in office. They are trying to cut through the meh with a *strong means strong* pitch: we know what we are doing, we are competent, we get the global economy, we have a plan and, by the way, we’ll keep the boat people out, which was a large bit of today’s pitch. We are large and in charge so you can go back to sleep and not have to worry about anything.
Will it work? Who knows. What a final week. You would not be dead for quids.
Updated
Well that was deeply interesting at a number of levels. Give me a minute and I’ll share some thoughts.
This is the wind up.
Malcolm Turnbull:
My Coalition team is determined to show the economic leadership to ensure young Australians do not start from behind. That is why I counsel Australians against a roll of the dice on independents or minor parties.
Vote for anyone other than the Liberal and National party candidates and the risk is that Australians will next week find themselves with Bill Shorten as prime minister – and no certainty about their future.
That is why I am urging every Australian to think of this election as if their single vote will determine what sort of government we have after July 2. We can have the sort of chaotic government we see in today’s Queensland, with a minority Labor government trapped in policy paralysis. Or there is the alternative model of a stable, confident administration under premier Mike Baird here in NSW, where a strong economy and strong budget position is funding new roads and rail and better health and education services.
At this election for our nation’s leadership, I am asking Australians to make a clear choice – to back a strong and stable Coalition majority government that can press ahead with our plan for a stronger new economy. Our plan will deliver the economic security that enables Australians to fulfil their aspirations as individuals, as families, as communities. That is why I am asking my fellow Australians at this election to support our Coalition’s national economic plan for a strong new economy.
This national economic plan will secure Australia’s position for decades to come as a high-wage, first-world economy of the 21st century, with a generous social welfare safety net. This means a thriving business sector, where there is the confidence to create more jobs, where small family enterprises are encouraged to think big – to invest, to innovate, to grow their business and employ other Australians. This means an Australia competing with the world’s best in the hi-tech industries and all the other jobs of the future, and a strong sustainable advanced manufacturing sector, sharing in the heavy lifting in our new economy. Our farmers and service industries flourishing like never before, with millions of new customers in the markets of Asia to our north, where half of the world’s middle class will soon reside. And only disciplined financial management can guarantee long-term funding to support the hospitals and schools, the roads and infrastructure, and all the services Australians want and expect from government.
My fellow Australians we alone have the economic plan our nation needs in these times of opportunity and challenge. We have always been a lucky country – but today more than ever we need to make our own luck.
Get this right and Australians will succeed as never before.
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There’s one more announcement, I’m not sure whether I flagged this one before. A $64m commitment to crack down on the trafficking of illegal firearms by criminal gangs.
We need to treat asylum seekers harshly to maintain confidence in our migration program.
Malcolm Turnbull:
I am proud to announce that today marks 700 days without a successful people-smuggling venture to our country. I am also very proud to announce that we have removed every child from detention in Australia.
But the lesson of Labor in government is that success cannot be taken for granted and can be easily undone. The fact is 50 Labor candidates, members and senators do not support Mr Shorten’s stated policy on boats. Whatever he may say today, any policy commitment would be under siege the moment Labor came into office. In tandem with the Greens, Labor would overturn the very policies that have kept our borders secure. We know this because hope rarely triumphs over experience. They have failed Australia before.
The people-smugglers are looking for the earliest sign that an Australian government will waver. We must not. I will not. The Coalition is resolute in defending the sovereignty, the security of our borders. Our policies are tough. No doubt about it. But these policies have stopped the drownings at sea and restored the integrity of, and trust in, our large but orderly immigration and refugee programs.
Public trust in the government to determine who can come to Australia and how long they can stay is an essential foundation of our success as a multicultural society. It begins with respect for the world’s oldest continuous culture, that of our First Australians, and extends to celebration of our rich diversity as a nation built by immigration. Strong border protection policies instil confidence. A weak and failing system has the opposite effect.
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Good boats and bad boats
Turnbull works through the policy announcements I shared with you earlier this morning on education and mental health and digital literacy for seniors.
Now we are into the boats. Good boats and bad boats.
Malcolm Turnbull:
National security and economic security go hand in hand. There is no higher responsibility in government than protecting our borders and ensuring our nation is well-prepared to deal with threats to our security.
The historic investment by my government in Australia’s defence industries provides our defence forces with the support they need to keep us safe.
Only a strong Australia can be a safe Australia.
After six years of abject Labor neglect and indecision, our continuous shipbuilding strategy will ensure Australia retains a sovereign capability to build and sustain naval vessels, securing thousands of advanced manufacturing jobs for decades to come.
Our border protection depends on three pillars: boat turnbacks, offshore processing and temporary protection visas. Labor has already abandoned TPVs. So they do not have the same policy as us and who would trust them on the rest? We must never forget how Labor in government failed Australia at the border.
Labor’s abandonment of John Howard’s proven border protection policy opened the door to the people-smugglers. The result: 50,000 unauthorised arrivals on 800 boats, 1200 deaths at sea, of which we know, over 8000 children put into detention, 17 detention centres opened and an $11bn border protection budget blowout.
In contrast, the Coalition has restored security at the border, integrity to our immigration program and, with it, public trust.
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We need a plan to get through the uncertainty
Malcolm Turnbull:
Australia has weathered global shocks before and weathered them well.
Despite the greatest terms of trade shock in our history, with the fall in global commodity prices since the peak of the mining boom; in the year to March we are growing faster than any of the G7 economies and well above the OECD average. In the last calendar year, there were 300,000 new jobs. Our unemployment rate of 5.7% is well beneath what was anticipated when the Coalition came to office.
None of this happens by chance. Strong economic leadership supporting hard-working Australians means that, even with difficult global headwinds, we continue to grow our economy and expand our workforce. If we see this plan through over the next three years, I believe Australians will have every reason to approach the decades ahead as they do today – confident, outward-looking, secure and self-assured.
If, on the other hand, we falter in our plan to transition the economy, there is a real risk of Australia falling off the back of the pack of leading economies. This is no time to pull the doona over our heads – or, as Labor and the Greens would have it, to pretend that the good times will just keep rolling no matter how much you tax, how much you borrow, or how much you spend.
That is just not how it works in the global economy of the 21st century.
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A message for voters in marginal seats. Over.
Malcolm Turnbull, just in case you missed the last three minutes or so. Off boiling the kettle or something.
Malcolm Turnbull:
When it comes to the minor parties, be they Lambie, Xenophon, Lazarus or Hanson – if you only really know the leader of a minor party but you don’t really know their candidates and you don’t really know their policies ... then don’t vote for them. If your local vote is for Labor, Greens or an independent and you are in one of the 20 or so key battleground seats across the country, it is a vote for the chaos of a hung Parliament, a budget black hole, big Labor taxes, less jobs and more boats.
Only a Liberal or National vote ensures stable government, a clear economic plan, real funding for the aged, Medicare and education; more jobs and strong borders. So, again, leave nothing in doubt.
Vote for your local Liberal or National in the House and in the Senate.
(I’ve never heard targeting this specific at a campaign launch before. I’ll get into this later on.)
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Vote one, Liberal. Please. Otherwise: scary
Then there’s a segment on Labor and the unions, some meat for the Liberal base. And back to the premium on stability. Only the Coalition can offer stable majority government.
Malcolm Turnbull:
If returned at this election, we will convene a joint sitting to restore the rule of law in the construction industry and reinstate the Australian Building and Construction Commission so Australians can have the building infrastructure of the 21st century they need at a price they can afford.
Labor and the Greens will fight tooth and nail to defend their paymasters in the CFMEU. It’s the same old Labor; a replay of the Gillard years and another power-sharing fiasco with the Greens and independents.
That is why I am urging Australians today and through this week very carefully to consider their vote, both in the House of Representatives and the Senate. We present a stable Coalition majority government with a positive national economic plan that secures our future - and is working today. The alternative at this election is a Labor party that has lost its way, or a protest vote for Greens or independents.
Vote for any of them and you could end up with Bill Shorten as prime minister in a government where unions, Greens and independents pull the strings. This will mean less investment, less employment and an economy going into reverse. It would mean higher deficits and more debt.
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Actually Labor does have a plan, it’s just terrible.
Malcolm Turnbull:
Every element of [Labor’s] platform will discourage investment and employment. A recipe for economic stagnation.
We have a plan. They don’t.
Malcolm Turnbull:
We have carefully considered what we need to do to succeed, to make the transition from an economy fired up by a once in a century mining construction boom to one that is more diverse, more innovative, smarter, more productive – an economy that wins, and keeps on winning. An economy that is resilient - supporting enterprise, investment and innovation so Australians can seize the opportunities of our times but also handle the challenges and headwinds.
So there is a clear-cut choice at this election. We present our fellow Australians with a national economic plan every element of which supports more investment, stronger economic growth and more jobs. Our plan invests $1.1bn to promote leading-edge innovation in our industries and to prepare our children for the jobs of the future.
Our plan promotes export trade deals to generate 19,000 new export opportunities, giving our businesses premium access to the biggest economies in our region. Our plan invests in local defence industries to ensure every defence dollar possible supports advanced manufacturers and thousands of Australians jobs.
Our enterprise tax plan provides tax relief to tens of thousands of small-to-medium family businesses now and to all companies over time so they can invest, grow and hire more Australians. Our plan commits to a sustainable budget with tough crackdowns on multinational tax avoidance - companies found to shift profits offshore will pay a penalty rate of tax.
Every element of our plan is fully costed and paid for – it’s all there in the budget and guarantees record investments in health, Medicare and schools. And not only does it drive higher growth and more jobs, it reduces our deficits every year until we come back into balance in 2020/21.
On the other hand, our opponents in the Labor party have no economic plan.
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Risks abound. Take Brexit for example.
Malcolm Turnbull:
The shockwaves in the past 48 hours from Britain’s vote to exit the European Union are a sharp reminder of the volatility in the global economy. Always expect the unexpected.
We will need to renegotiate vital trade deals with Europe and Britain. We concluded five in the last three years – Japan, Korea, China, Singapore and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
In six years Labor concluded none.
Think about it.
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'A strong economy is not about academic theory'
Malcolm Turnbull goes through what a strong economy means, and he points to desirability of inter-generational equity,
A stronger economy means we can fund over $50bn in 21st century road, rail and other infrastructure including the Western Sydney Airport and the 39,000 jobs it will create.
A stronger economy means we can afford to fund world-class education and health services, including Medicare, without weighing down our children and grandchildren with more debt and deficits.
Fairness between generations means we must live within our means.
And it also means we can afford to leave a cleaner environment to those children with programs like our $1bn investment plan to improve water quality in the Great Barrier Reef catchment, our $1bn clean energy innovation fund, our $1 billion National Landcare Program or our $2.55bn Emissions Reduction Fund.
A strong economy means we can meet and beat our international obligations to address climate change and do so without massive hikes in electricity prices as Labor would do.
So a strong economy is not about academic theory - it is about millions of Australians being able to lead better lives, with more choices, better jobs, more opportunities and when working days are ended, a more secure retirement.
We have a national economic plan because the prosperity and security of 24 million Australians depend on it.
Stability, growth, leadership, majority government
Malcolm Turnbull then gets into the overarching narrative.
My fellow Australians – at this election my Coalition team presents a clear economic plan to secure Australia’s future. We know, and Australians know, that the pace and the scale of economic change is unprecedented in all of human history. Our opportunities have never been greater, but challenges, risks and uncertainty abound.
There has never been a more exciting time to be an Australian!
But only if your optimism and confidence is matched with a clear-eyed understanding of what makes the economy work, what makes businesses invest and hire, and an ability to see the world as it is, not how you would like it to be.
This is a time which demands stable majority government.
Experienced economic leadership and a national economic plan which will deliver stronger growth and more jobs. A national economic plan which recognises the nature of our times – both the opportunities and challenges – and gives us the resilience we need to succeed.
Only the Liberal National Coalition can deliver that plan, that security, that leadership.
Everything we seek to achieve, all of our hopes, our dreams depend on strong economic growth.
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Turnbull takes the podium
The toughest bit of the speech must be dispatched first, the salutation to his predecessor.
Malcolm Turnbull:
I welcome today my distinguished predecessors, John Howard, and his wife Jeanette, and Tony Abbott. John, you set the gold standard leading the most successful and effective government, your reforms set Australia up for the longest period of prosperity in our history. Tony you brought to an end the chaos and dysfunction of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years and you remain a dedicated advocate for our cause. John and Tony we salute you.
(As I noted before, triumph of advancing, glueing these two together.)
Tony Abbott has that set jaw look after the salutation, a smile that doesn’t quite reach the eyes. But everyone’s through the worst of that now.
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'Good luck mate ...'
Bishop throws to a longer version of the log cabin video about Malcolm Turnbull that’s we saw earlier in the campaign. It’s a very slick piece of political communication in my view, I’ll see if I can chase it down afterwards.
Turnbull is making his entrance. He’s just shaken Tony Abbott’s hand. Good luck mate, the former prime minister says to him, eyes slightly in the middle distance.
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'The character, the integrity and intellect, the compassion'
And, moving to the bright side, introducing the leader for our times.
Julie Bishop:
Fortunately we have a prime minister in Malcolm Turnbull who has the character, the integrity and intellect, the compassion, the competence and optimism to lead the nation.
Malcolm Turnbull has a long-term vision for the country. He has a vision on how to manage the economy responsibly. How to make sure the society is cohesive, he has a vision to make sure we can make the very best of the days ahead.
Bishop says Australia needs a government that can manage the economy and secure the borders.
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Julie Bishop’s task this morning is executing the beat down on Bill Shorten.
I assume he is being ironic when he adopts the campaign slogan, we will put people first. He does not say which people. As a union leader, he didn’t put the rank and file union members first when he did grubby deals to trade away the workers pay and conditions for secret payments.
Bishop says people might recall Shorten warned us he would govern like a union leader. She says given officials are facing the courts on charges of breaking the law, maybe he wants to rethink that.
Shorten, she says, lacks the moral fibre to be prime minister.
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I don’t know how this is in the room but on television it’s a couple of things: flat and a bit clunky. I think they are trying to project modesty and understatement but it’s not really working, at least not yet. Perhaps the prime minister can lift things.
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Guests at the launch then get a burst of election ads, before the foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, takes the stage.
Bishop:
I welcome the supporters of the Liberal National coalition, Turnbull’s team!
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Barnaby Joyce:
Ladies and gentlemen, what is the alternative to the Liberal National Coalition? Well, it is a Green/Labor/independent alliance, the Glee club.
And what are they out there doing? They are out there, they can’t think of a policy so they have dreamt up lies and are talking about them. They have decided they can continue talking about the privatisation of Medicare, they can fight against that as well and will probably have more success. This is their approach. They have become so hopeless, so pathetic that now they are just making up the stories to argue against themselves.
If that is what they are offering the Australian people, than they have nothing at all to offer the Australian people.
(He knows a lot of people liked Glee, right? Well, at least the first few seasons, before it jumped the shark.)
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Barnaby Joyce is a throwback in many respects. This speech is all about spending basically, what the Coalition is spending in regional Australia, except he notes the Coalition agenda is overseen by an astute treasurer who has the capacity to make sure that we can balance the books, because if we can’t balance the books, it’s not a promise, it’s a dream ...
Next speak is the deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, who offers a little homily on opportunity.
The person or the individual, though they may not the born with the best wallet, though they may not have had the fortuitous outcome of a generous genealogy, they might not have had the best education, but that individual can start from the bottom and make their way through to the top, through the economic and social stratification of life, limited only by their innate abilities.
That is what encompasses the Liberal party and the National party and that is what we are taking as the core of our being into this election.
(Institutionalised privilege. Who, us?)
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Good morning, and welcome to Reid, Craig Laundy says. Reid is an amazing place full of amazing people, wanting to have a go.
Craig Laundy:
There are some 23,000 small businesses in this electorate, with turnovers of $10m or less, which employ some 26,000 locals. Local jobs.
It is an amazingly culturally diverse place. More than half of the homes in Reid speak more than one language. But, of all those cultures, our most important is quite clearly our Indigenous culture. A culture that dates back proudly some 60,000 years. And today, we meet on Aboriginal land. And I would like to acknowledge Aboriginal elders, past, present and, very importantly, into the future.
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The foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, and the deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, also get a razzle entry – and we are now into the anthem.
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Proceedings are underway in Homebush now with a roll call of special guests: the premier, Mike Baird, John Howard and Tony Abbott, all with spouses. Abbott walking in at the same time as Howard is a small triumph of advancing – there is then no prospect of distinguishing the level of applause for each man.
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I should have mentioned the Liberal campaign launch is in the Sydney seat of Reid, held by the Liberal MP Craig Laundy.
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Greens on time, under way.
.@murpharoo Senator Larissa Waters MCing, introducing Di Natale, Milne and Brown. No new announcements expected. pic.twitter.com/7GtbS6Hmsr
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) June 26, 2016
Not under way yet in Sydney. We will be shortly though.
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Dust off the calculators
Labor is now confirming what I’ve been hinting at this morning: we will get their election costings later today, after the Liberal launch. I warned you it will be a big Sunday.
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Meanwhile, in Melbourne.
Packed warehouse for the Greens launch. Richard Di Natale to speak at 11.25am. @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/WSY7cOgpeZ
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) June 26, 2016
Just in case anyone gets lost.
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Mike Bowers, positioned in the Liberal launch venue in Sydney, tells me the room is very small. The Labor launch was fairly small too. Must be a new fashion.
The Greens campaign launch will kick off in about 15 in North Melb. Di Natale, Brown, Milne to attend. @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/Fc1ThJtZRI
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) June 26, 2016
Just if you need to plan your Sunday, the formal kick-off for the Liberal launch is 11am. The Greens launch is exactly the same time – as I said, Mel Davey will keep us posted on that event. You know Labor is under way in Brisbane and we’ll hear more from them this afternoon.
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Bill Shorten:
Behind the forced smiles today and the awkward music, when we watch them, those Liberals are sharpening their weapons of revenge for the impending civil war in that party after the election. We know they are doing this because shamefully their first target is marriage equality.
This $160m plebiscite that Malcolm Turnbull seeks to inflict upon Australians – the price he is saying we all must pay for his prime ministership. It will dredge up prejudice and it will divide our country. In Australia, no one should have to justify their relationships and their sexuality to anyone else, it’s no one’s business but theirs.
And, under the Labor party, the parliament will do its job. We will legislate to make marriage equality a reality within the first hundred days of a new Labor government.
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'You cannot have stability without unity'
Bill Shorten attempts to see Malcolm Turnbull and raise him on stability.
No amount of waffle disguised as oratory can disguise the fact that my opponent is a prisoner to his party. Mr Turnbull says this is the time for stability. You cannot have stability without unity.
Indeed, you cannot have stability when you are cutting Medicare, you cannot have stability when you are not funding the schools properly, you cannot have stability when you have a poor climate change policy and you offer Australia a second NBN.
Mr Turnbull does not represent stability. And you certainly cannot have stability when your party is not united. Our party is united, the Liberals are not united.
The single biggest risk to the Australian economy in the next three years is three more years of a divided Liberal government. Our people cannot afford another three years of administration from a weak Liberal prime minister who spends half his time worrying about his day job and the other half fighting a civil war within his own party.
We cannot afford a part-time prime minister who doesn’t lead his own party totally.
'Let’s make it the last Sunday of a Liberal government nationally'
The Labor leader Bill Shorten is under way in Brisbane with campaign launch mark two.
Let’s make it the last Sunday of a Liberal government nationally. It’s fabulous to be back in Queensland, coming into the home straight, ready to hit the line strong. If we want proof that the race can be won, that this can be done, look no further than my friend and your remarkable premier, Annastacia!
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The Greens are also launching their campaign today. My colleague Melissa Davey is going along and she’ll keep us posted.
Speaking of Greens, environment groups are planning some action in Malcolm Turnbull’s Sydney electorate during the course of the morning. I hear a former Liberal leader, John Hewson, may be making an appearance.
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Labor is staging a second campaign launch in Brisbane today, which will focus on Medicare as a prelude to the final week. That’s under way now. There will be more from Labor later today. The folks on the couch on Insiders this morning thought Labor’s costings aren’t far away. I suspect that’s right.
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Campaign launch commitments
Given it’s a big day, with lots of moving parts, I’ll take a moment now to carve out the specific policy commitments Malcolm Turnbull will make today at the campaign launch.
- There will be $48m to help 24,000 of Australia’s most disadvantaged children with their education through the Smith Family’s Learning for Life program.
- $31.2m for internships and post-school career advice to increase support for women and girls to choose to study and work in science, technology, engineering and maths (Stem).
- $50m to improve the digital literacy of senior Australians and improve their safety online.
- $10m to protect, preserve and celebrate Aboriginal and Torres Strait languages as part of the living story of our shared history.
- $192m towards a package of mental health reforms to ensure help for individuals and their families across Australia, including commitments in suicide prevention.
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Good morning and welcome to a large Sunday
Hello everyone and welcome to the closing week of the longest election campaign in Australia since the beginning of time. OK, not the beginning of time but in recent times. Not that I mind, it’s the most interesting contest I’ve reported on for at least 10 years, but it is now moving to the final stretch. I hope you got a rest yesterday, because you’ll need stamina to see this week through. You’ll in fact need stamina to see today through. Let’s keep calm and carry on.
Today Malcolm Turnbull will launch the Coalition’s campaign with a big pitch to stability. Stability would have always been the pitch, it’s been the pitch throughout the campaign, but the pitch has had a couple of booster jets strapped on since the Brexit boilover last Friday. Turnbull is trying to take some conventional wisdom to the bank: shocks benefit incumbency. But I noted last week we’ve got to be attentive to the underlying conditions behind the Brexit vote, and the rise of Donald Trump in the US, and that’s voter disaffection. A great chunk of Australian voters is looking to vote for independents and non-major parties this election because they think establishment politics is either busted or acts as the servant of special interests. Just how that sentiment breaks in this contest isn’t quite clear yet but it’s part of why this election is interesting. The field evidence tells us the opinion polls haven’t moved at all in eight weeks. They remained locked in a dead heat. That suggests a certain amount of surliness or at least detachment with business as usual.
So much to get into today, so best we get cracking. A reminder today’s comments thread is open for your business. If the thread’s too bracing for you, Mike Bowers and I are up and about on the twits – he’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo. If you only speak Facebook you can join my daily forum here. And if you want a behind-the-scenes look at the day and the campaign as a whole, give Mike a follow on Instagram. You can find him here.
Fire up the coffee machine, here comes Sunday.
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