Good night and farewell for the #ausvotes week
The campaigns have gone to bed (well not really, let’s say the public face of the campaigns in any case) so let’s part ways for now, and prepare for a brief moment of weekend zen.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull addresses the Menzies research centre in Sydney this afternoon, Friday 10th June 2016. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian
But first, let’s take stock of the day.
- Labor bookended a week of focus on the economy and costings with the release of new savings measures, which include more means testing for family payments, restrictions on private health insurance rebates and savings across a range of portfolios. Labor has also grabbed some of the Abbott government’s savings measures from the 2014 budget, namely a cut to R&D concessions and three university measures – and is now trying to turn pressure on the government for carrying forward more than $5bn worth of “zombies” savings that will never pass the senate unless the Senate becomes occupied by a new bunch of people.
- The Coalition had a quieter day. Malcolm Turnbull gave his stump speech to the Menzies Research Centre and used the opportunity to launch a plea for voters to back the government in both houses if they wanted to avoid a hung parliament. Resist the temptation of a protest vote, the prime minister said, otherwise .. chaos.
- Round the country, ballot orders were sorted, and independent Rob Oakeshott announced a comeback to politics in the seat of Cowper.
- That was the guts of Friday. Thanks so much for hanging in today and over the course of the week. I’ll be back next week. A reminder that the first of our live election events kicks off in Sydney, next week, we’d love it if you’d join us. In Sydney, Lenore Taylor and I will be joined by Tanya Plibersek, deputy leader of the opposition and shadow minister for foreign affairs and international development, Trent Zimmerman, the Liberal MP for North Sydney (Joe Hockey’s successor) and Cassandra Goldie, chief executive of Australian Council of Social Service. We’ll be talking about fairness, a key election theme. I suspect Mike Bowers might stop by, and if you would like to as well, you can find the details here.
- Until we meet again, go with your God.
From one of our podcast listeners. Looks peaceful. Speaking of peaceful, I’ll post a summary next.
@murpharoo @gabriellechan peak hour traffic here in Tasmania pic.twitter.com/YLgNQK3hYv
— mick derby (@regiment_mick) June 10, 2016
The thing that needs to be mentioned about Labor and cuts that I haven’t yet mentioned is today is not the end of the matter. There are more cuts to come. I suspect we’ll see more into next week as Labor steams through to the official campaign launch, which will likely see the unveiling of another big spending policy.
Let's go bush
Now, just in time for your Friday commute home, here is the latest episode of our campaign podcast, Australian Politics Live. This week Gabrielle Chan joins me as we go bush to examine the political contest west of the divide, and we are joined by Labor’s Mike Kelly, an MP attempting to win back a regional and marginal seat on July 2. What’s it like to try and win a regional seat that swings with the prevailing government? Tune in to find out.
For the purposes of illustration, we can compare the impact of the Labor cuts with the government’s cuts that are still built into the budget. Given the government says it is seeking a mandate for its savings measures let’s remind people what they are.
- The Family Tax Benefit A end of year supplement of $726 per child is paid to around 1.5m families. That will cease.
- Family Tax Benefit B end of year supplements worth $354 per family goes to around 1.3m families. That will cease.
- Reducing Family Tax Benefit B for single parents whose youngest child is over 13 translates to a cut of around $1,700 a year.
I’ve been chasing particulars on who is impacted by Labor’s announcements on family tax benefit.
- The measure reducing Family Tax benefit A end of year supplements by 50% for families earning over 100,000 will impact 137,000 families. These families will lose $366 per child per year.
- Labor continuing the current freeze on the top income limits for family tax benefits means families on more than around $94,000 a year will receive a reduced payment if their income increases over time.
Resurrecting the zombie of Tony Abbott
Now we are passed the treasurer, some comments from the Greens leader Richard Di Natale.
We are hearing a lot about zombie measures in the budget, well today the Labor party are resurrecting the zombie of Tony Abbott by refusing to join with the Greens and the community in saying no to harsh cuts for students, families and research. Four billion has been slashed from higher education funding, leaving Australians that want to access higher education through the HECS-HELP benefit scheme without support. The $5.5bn of savings announced today pale in comparison to the $13bn of savings measures the Greens have identified that could be achieved by phasing out the private health insurance rebate to be reinvested into our public health system.
The Greens believe that we should be raising revenue and investing in the foundations of a decent society. We are disappointed that Labor has sided with big business and the Coalition when it comes to standing up for everyday people. While the old parties are cutting away parts of our family payments system, the Greens have announced policies that would see a real funding increase in income support, including for the most vulnerable in our society.
Any good savings measures there you can pick up? No.
Q: With respect to the spending side of things, in respect to savings, were there any new measures that the government can support, including cutting the health rebate to natural therapies?
Scott Morrison:
Our measures are set out in our budget and we stand by that.
Scott Morrison:
I mean, it is really embarrassing what we saw here today. These numbers don’t add up. At the end of the day Bill Shorten keeps digging a hole on his spending, and the hole gets deeper and deeper. And what they announced today doesn’t cover it, it doesn’t come close to covering it, and so the Australian people, I think, are faced with a very straightforward choice.. They can vote for Labor and vote for higher deficits and higher debt, or they are support the government’s economic plan which will keep us on that positive trajectory towards a budget balance by 2021 based on the current assumptions around the parameters.
What we saw today frankly was embarrassing.
Scott Morrison opens with bluff and bluster
The treasurer is opening his rebuttal with bluff and bluster. Labor’s bluff and bluster. But thus far he’s pretty heavy on the bluff and bluster himself. He gets to some numbers eventually.
Scott Morrison:
They have gone from a cumulative figure of $16.3bn in improvements to $16.9bn in improvements, from the additional savings measures they have outlined today.
(Have they? Not sure where that comes from.)
They have announced a net improvement on their previous position of just $2.4bn. Now, that’s before they have even spent a cent, even spent a cent.
(I honestly have no idea where the treasurer is getting these numbers from.)
Before that, I should pull my head out of the calculator and the campaign fact sheet to give you the top line political perspective and consumer perspective: Labor has announced cuts to family tax benefits and health insurance benefits and some higher education things in order to send a signal to voters on budget management. Additionally it has clarified its position on the zombie savings from the Abbott government’s first budget in an effort to flush out the government, which is now carrying savings that it will not be able to pass in all likelihood.
Labor’s been big target for the whole election cycle. It remains big target.
We were going to have both the prime minister and the treasurer rebutting Labor savings. Malcolm Turnbull will now not be appearing. Scott Morrison, shortly.
The presser that never was #PMTurnbull @murpharoo @GuardianAus #politicslive pic.twitter.com/ZSEfBYYs5P
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) June 10, 2016
Net position: take your pick +$8.9bn or -$3.4bn
Now, to the net budget position. What the net position is depends on whether you include the bunch of savings and revenue measures we already knew about, like negative gearing and CGT and abolishing the emissions reduction fund and so forth. If you include previously announced commitments and today’s material you get the figure Chris Bowen cited earlier on, over the forward estimates, an improvement of $8.9 bn.
But if you take those things out (assuming we knew about them already) then the net budget impact of the measures we learned about today is -$3.4bn over the forward estimates.
Labor obviously wants to take the $8.9bn figure, which isn’t an outrage by any means, they are entitled to count their own savings and revenue measures of course, but the impact of today (in isolation) is negative, not positive. Why? Because Labor continues to oppose the bulk of the Coalition’s savings measures from that first budget, and they have now accounted for the impact of that decision in their own budget numbers.
The purpose of doing this, of coming clean as it were, is so they can now turn the attack back on the Coalition for including measures in their budget numbers which have absolutely no prospect of passing the Senate (unless this election brings in a new bunch of parliamentarians with a different attitude to Labor, the Greens and Nick Xenophon.)
In the process of trying to get facts I missed the Q&A from the press conference but I don’t think we missed much in a news sense. I’ll check once I’ve got to the bottom of what the net budget position is. It’s actually quite difficult to discern.
Zombie measures Labor will support
Again, from labor’s campaign materials, Labor has picked up this batch of “zombie” savings measures from the first Abbott budget.
R&D Tax Incentive – reducing the rates of tax offsets
- The government’s measure would reduce the rates of the refundable and non-refundable tax offsets available under the R&D Tax Incentive for the first $100m of eligible expenditure by 1.55%. This means the refundable rate would drop from 45% to 43.5% and the non-refundable rate would drop from 40% to 38.5%.
- This measure has a budget improvement of $860 m over the forward estimates, and $2.8bn over the medium term.
Expanding opportunity – Higher Education Indexation – revised arrangements
- Funding for programs under the Australian Research Council Act and the Higher Education Support Act, excluding superannuation grants, will be indexed to the Consumer Price Index in place of the Higher Education Grants Index.
- This measure has a budget improvement of $119m over the forward estimates, and $3.7bn over the medium term.
A sustainable Higher Education Loan Program – repayment thresholds and indexation measure
- This measure would set a new minimum threshold for repayment of HELP debts, set at 90% of the minimum threshold that would otherwise have applied in 2016-17, being $50,638. A new repayment rate of 2% will apply to debtors with incomes above the new minimum threshold. The current minimum threshold is $54,126.
- This measure has a budget improvement of $9m over the forward estimates, and $129m over the medium term.
Education Loan Program – HECS–HELP benefit – cessation
- This measure would end the HECS-HELP benefit which currently applies to those studying early childhood education and maths, science, education or nursing. The benefit is used to either reduce the amount of compulsory HELP repayment through income tax, or the accumulated HELP debt directly. Labor has already announced our plan to fund 100,000 scholarships over five years to encourage more Australian students to undertake STEM degrees. We will also examine alternative ways to incentivise study in areas of workforce demand, like nursing and early childhood.
- This measure has a budget improvement of $24m over the forward estimates, and $159m over the medium term.
Family payments
The end result of today is most of the government’s family benefits changes proposed in the first budget will be opposed. But will Labor will impose more means testing. These are the developments today in the event the first run report (minus materials) wasn’t clear.
- Labor will not proceed with the new baby bonus and $5 weekly increase to Family Tax Benefit A.
- Labor will reduce the FTB-A supplement by 50% for families with incomes greater than $100,000.
- Labor will continue the existing threshold freezes out to 2019-20.
New savings measures, the full list from today
We finally have the fact sheet. Rejoice! here are the savings confirmed today with some detail. This is from the campaign fact sheet.
Ceasing Private Health Insurance Rebate for natural therapies
- The Private Health Insurance Rebate will no longer be available for natural therapies from 1 July 2017. The review of the Australian government Rebate on Private Health Insurance for Natural Therapies, which was initiated by the former Labor Government, found that there was no clear evidence that the natural therapies that were covered by the review were clinically effective.
- This expenditure saving will improve the budget by $180.2m over the forward estimates, and $704.7m over the medium term.
Continuing the Government’s PHI and MLS threshold pause for a further five years
- The government’s current pause on the indexation of the Private Health Insurance and Medicare Levy Surcharge thresholds will be continued for five years to 2026-27. This continues the pause to the thresholds for five years from 1 July 2018 in the 2016-17 Budget, and follows a three-year pause to the thresholds from 1 July 2015 in the 2014-15 Budget.
- This expenditure saving will improve the budget by $2.3bn over the medium term.
Scaling back the Colombo Plan
- Labor will reduce funding for the government’s New Colombo Plan by 50% and direct it towards better targeted programs that support deepening Australia’s relationships in Asian region.
- This expenditure saving will improve the budget by $83.5m over the forward estimates, and $262m over the medium term.
Ceasing Jobactive advertising
- Advertising for the jobactive program will cease from 1 January 2017 with all existing commitments to be honoured. The low uptake of the programs advertised in the campaign indicates this has not been effective in supporting Australians into work.
- This expenditure saving will improve the budget by $13.8m over the forward estimates and medium term.
Scaling back the National Water Infrastructure Development Fund
- Labor will reduce uncommitted funding for the National Water Infrastructure Development Fund by 50%.
- This expenditure saving will improve the budget by $82.5m over the forward estimates, and $235.2m over the medium term.
Returning funds from the Confiscated Assets Account (Proceeds of Crime)
- Labor will return any uncommitted funds from the Confiscated Assets Account to the budget on 1 January 2017. As these savings will be made from uncommitted funds, this will not impact on existing crime prevention activities.
- This saving will improve the budget by $57.4m over the forward estimates, and $220.7m over the medium term.
Increasing penalty units under the Crimes Act
- Labor will increase the value of all Commonwealth penalty units from $180 to $210, with effect from 1 July 2017. Labor will also replace the current CPI indexation arrangements for penalty units with new indexation of the maximum of CPI and Male Average Weekly Total Earnings (MTAWE) to ensure penalty units move more in line with wages.
- This measure will improve the budget by $101m over the forward estimates, and $538m over the medium term.
Abolishing the Innovation Xchange
- Labor will abolish the Innovation Xchange within the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Funding will be re-directed to meet other frontline Overseas Development Assistance priorities.
- This expenditure saving will improve the budget by $83.6 million over the forward estimates, and $433.6 million over the medium term.
Ceasing the Child Care Subsidy Communications Campaign
- The government delayed the start of its Child Care Subsidy system until 1 July 2018, but has maintained funding in 2016-17 and 2017-18 for an advertising campaign about the new system.
- This expenditure saving will improve the budget by $16.2m over the forward estimates and medium term.
Reforming the Industry Growth Centres
- Labor will reform and refocus the Industry Growth Centres program.
- This expenditure saving will improve the budget by $117.4m over the forward estimates, and $496.4m over the medium term.
Filing Fees – introducing a new fee category for publicly listed companies
- Labor would introduce a new fee category on 1 January 2017 for publicly listed companies filing for particular matters in the Federal Court and the Federal Circuit Court, set at 1.5 times the fees for other corporations.
- This measure will improve the budget by $23.5m over the forward estimates and $67.2m over the medium term.
Updated
Labor still has not supplied the full materials yet, believe it or not, amazing this press conference is in full swing without accompanying materials, but a couple more savings I can bring to your attention courtesy of the press release which has just landed.
- Reforming Industry Growth Centres, saving $0.5bn over the medium term.
- Re-directing DFAT spending to other budget priorities, including the abolition of the Innovation Xchange which focussed on purchasing bean bags. This saves $0.4bn over the medium term.
On the latter point I don’t know what else that redirection entails, but hopefully materials will turn up shortly.
Just a quick, broad, summary, according to what Chris Bowen has said.
- The new Labor savings announcements today deliver $6.1bn over the decade, $920m over the forward estimates.
- There’s a $10bn improvement in the budget bottom line over the decade courtesy of the updated costings Chris Bowen shared about the measures we already knew about, like negative gearing.
- The total budget improvements, net what Labor continues to oppose, is $8.9bn over the forward estimates, $105bn over the decade.
I won’t be able to give you the full list until I see Labor’s materials, which have not been distributed yet. I’ll go through that carefully. They are into questions now.
Zombie cuts
There are measures which Labor had previously opposed in the parliament that it will now support.
- The first is the R&D tax incentive, which was flagged this morning. That raises $860m million over the forwards, $2.8bn over ten.
- Secondly, the higher education indexation program, with funding being indexed to CPI, raises $119m over the forwards, $3.7bn over ten.
- Thirdly, the sustainable higher education loan program – that will raise $9m over the forwards and $129m over ten.
Tony Burke says these measures put together means the government is including $5.5bn over the forward estimates, or $23bn over ten, “that will never pass the parliament.”
Tony Burke:
The government, when they talk about their budget figures, and when they present their budget papers and wave it around as their plan, $5.5bn over the forwards, $23bn over ten, consists of money they can never deliver to the budget.
Family payment cuts
-
Labor will reduce the family tax benefit A supplement by 50% for families with an income of more than $100,000. This will raise $505m over the forward estimates, $2.1bn over the decade.
-
In addition, Labor will pause the point at which families lose a portion of their family tax benefits, so families whose income increases will receive less family payments if their income is more than $94,000 a year. This raises $275m over the forward estimates and $800m over the medium term.
Updated
Private health insurance cuts
Chris Bowen, continuing:
Now, in addition today we are announcing 11 new savings measures, these are not government measures, these are the Labor party’s announcements. As I said, these are be included in Labor’s budget but not in the government’s budget.
The major ones:
-
From 1 July 2017, the private health insurance rebate will not be available for health insurance which covers natural therapy. This saves $180m over the forward estimates and $704m over the decade.
-
Secondly, Labor will continue the threshold freeze for PHI rebates for a further five years from 2021-26. This will raise $2.3bn over the decade.
-
Bowen says the total of the new measures that Labor is announcing today is $6.1bn over the decade.
Updated
Shorten has thrown to Chris Bowen for the detail.
Bowen starts with new costings for measures we already know about.
Multinational tax raises $1.6bn over the forward estimates $5.9bn over the decade. Not proceeding with the Emissions Reduction Fund raises $453m over the forward estimates. Negative gearing raises $1.9bn over the forward estimates and now $37bn over the decade. Removing the government’s determination to get rid of the deficit levy, making that rate permanent, raises $4.2bn over the forward estimates and $19bn over the decade.
And not proceeding with the government’s big business company tax cuts, $4.4bn over the forward estimates, $50bn over the decade. And as Bill announced in Budget reply, cracking down on the VET fee rort, $380m over the forward estimates and $7.9bn over the decade.
So the total impact of these decisions, the Labor party has taken, and previously announced is now $12.9bn dollars over the forward estimates and $122bn over the decade.
Labor unveils more savings
Bill Shorten, Chris Bowen and Tony Burke are fronting reporters in Sydney for the announcement of savings.
Bill Shorten:
We will need to make difficult decisions as this election unfolds.
Meanwhile, the ballot draws go on round the place.
The full #indivotes ballot draw. @bordermail pic.twitter.com/HgHFuPfAI4
— Shana Morgan (@shana_morgan) June 10, 2016
Some analysis of this in due course. The Labor press conference is imminent.
'Now is not the time for a protest vote or a wasted vote'
Malcolm Turnbull references the imminent opening of pre-poll voting. He urges Australians to think about their choice, a vote for anyone apart from the Coalition is a vote for chaos, he says. Every single vote away from the Coalition brings us closer to a minority Labor government, the prime minister says.
Now is not the time for a protest vote or a wasted vote.
Malcolm Turnbull segues from classic neoliberalism to the Coalition’s big spending old fashioned industry policy for the defence industry without skipping a beat. Then we are on budget management. Labor’s reckless approach to managing our public finances and the inter-generational inequity of piling debt on the children and grandchildren. Now we’ve paused in 2019, when the budget will be “well on the way to a responsible surplus” and no banks will have a company tax cut. (Well, not yet, anyway.)
Labor’s alternative is a leap into the unknown, or perhaps a retreat to the known, the prime minister says, both things, apparently, being simultaneously true.
Now the prime minister is into Labor’s hypocrisy on cutting company taxes and Bill Shorten’s toxic attacks on the big end of town.
Malcolm Turnbull says he wants to talk about exports. He speaks about the TPP (which now looks very unlikely to happen) and the bilateral agreements. Turnbull references the rise of protectionist sentiment – Nick Xenophon, the trade unions campaigning against the China free trade deal. For a moment I thought the analysis might get interesting, but no, it’s just campaign point scoring. This is just a segue to the Labor/Greens/Xenophon/union alliance after 2 July. The prime minister says Australia has to seize the opportunities of globalisation and the economic transformation in our neighbourhood. If we want to pull the doona over our head, we will fall behind.
Updated
'Here (Ye) citizens of the lucky country ..'
Malcolm Turnbull says this election is about two versions of the future. The government’s plan, about boosting growth, and Labor’s “complacency” about growth.
(I would characterise the battle somewhat differently, but I’m not behind the podium at the Menzies Research Centre.)
Malcolm Turnbull:
Here, citizens of the lucky country, we have to make our own luck.
I will wait to do the summary today until we are past the two campaign events.
The prime minister has begun speaking now at the Menzies Research Centre. He’s opening in stump fashion: exciting times, but not exciting if you vote Labor.
As we speak the ballot draws are underway. This is the process for determining the order of candidates on the election ballot papers. I mentioned the electorate of Herbert earlier this morning on stadium watch. Liberal MP Ewen Jones seems happy with his lot.
Here it is. Lucky lane 7 #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/GzHpDxYYbo
— Ewen Jones MP (@EwenJonesMP) June 10, 2016
From Rob Oakeshott’s new Facebook page. Complete with subheadings.
I confirm I have nominated to be the federal member for Cowper in the 45th parliament. To achieve this, I ask for the support of the communities of Coffs Harbour, Bellingen, Nambucca, Kempsey and the Macleay, and my home town of Port Macquarie at the ballot on July 2.
Is this a late call?
I have nominated as per the normal rules of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). In an unusually long ten week campaign, it is understandable why some people may think this is a ‘last-minute’ decision. It is not. Having been through six elections, announcements are normally made in line with the AEC rules.
Why Cowper and not Lyne?
As the former member for Lyne for five years, I can also understand why some people may mistake my candidacy for the seats of Lyne or Cowper. Following the AEC redistribution, my home town of Port Macquarie has been moved into Cowper, and I felt it appropriate to stand in the seat I live in. I haven’t moved, my home hasn’t moved, the boundaries of electorates have.
Why are you coming back after leaving?
After the 43rd parliament, I was exhausted. Getting a Senate and a House of Representatives to work together for a full term was hard work. Avoiding the chaos of a double dissolution was difficult, but we achieved it. With others, I risked my health and reputation in making this happen.
In 2013, I didn’t think I would ever want to see politics again. I was hoping the local MPs for the area would continue building on the community work around education and health, and that they would continue to focus on the many disadvantaged communities of our region.
I was hopeful the parliament would progress on areas of pre-election promised reform, such as comprehensive tax reform, and constitutional recognition of first Australia. Sadly, both promises have failed or ‘flat-lined’ over the past three years.
And I haven’t heard a peep out of the local MPs about this failure to reform, which is all the more disappointing.
Over time, I realised I had more to give, and the [sic] politics was still in my blood. I believe the representation of the mid-north coast is currently poor, and I strongly believe I can do better for all of us. Because of this, I feel an obligation to stand, and to allow voters the choice to either agree or disagree. Ultimately, I am hoping this decision creates a referendum on representation in Cowper, and whether the community deserves better. I think we do.
What would you do in a “hung” parliament?
There was no manual when the extraordinary events of 2010 unfolded. I have learned a lot from that period, and reflected deeply.
Every election is different, and the numbers and personalities always change. Lightening never strikes twice.
But to assure the electorate and the broader Australian community, I have never voted “no confidence” nor “blocked supply” in seventeen years in state and federal politics. It would be up to party leaders to reach out if they felt the need to formalise arrangements with a piece of paper to help form government.
This is therefore a matter for Malcolm Turnbull. As prime minister, he would have “first go” in this process of forming government in the House of Representatives. I would not block his efforts to do so, and would accept his phone call if he wanted to formalise something in more detail.
I ask the community to remember that a prime minister is not only in office prior to an election, but also during and after. They therefore have the responsibility to lead on any process of negotiation, in the unlikely event that it may occur.
Updated
Rob Oakeshott, back in the saddle
And there we go. We’ve been waiting for this confirmation for the last 24 hours. Rob Oakeshott is launching a political comeback.
I'm standing. All help welcome. DM here or PM at facebook. Thanks. https://t.co/L0S199ZC16
— Rob Oakeshott (@RobOakeshott1) June 10, 2016
I think I am, and most people regard me as being, very much as a feminist.
Journalist Annabel Crabb has just shared this little YouTube from the vault on Twitter. The prime minister this week declared himself a feminist out on the trail, an identification which has been shunned by a number of senior female Liberals for reasons that escape me, given they are feminists. Looks like a longstanding Turnbull inclination, the f-word.
Chaser still chasing out on the hustings I see. Has the new season been on yet? Have I missed it?
A comedian from the Chaser speaks to an AFP officer before pretending to chase Shorten's car for a TV stunt pic.twitter.com/esDt103LDi
— ellinghausen (@ellinghausen) June 10, 2016
The Labor press conference has just been confirmed for 1pm if you need to plan your sortie to the sandwich shop.
I mentioned several times yesterday on Politics Live that donations and disclosure keeps bubbling away in the background this campaign, but can’t seem to punch through the weight of collective political self interest. This week we’ve had Parakeelia – the Liberal-associated company that provides software services to MPs at a cost of $2,500 per member to track voter behaviour, and then goes on to donate to the Liberal party. We’ve had a business function from Labor in Sydney where senior people have diverted off the hustings in order to rattle the fundraising can, and we’ve had Tony Windsor on the warpath up in the New England about donations from the CSG industry.
My colleague Gabrielle Chan has pulled these threads together in a column today that says no matter who you vote for on 2 July, we need to keep the pressure up to reform the system.
Option 1. Real-time disclosure.
Option 2. Spending campaign caps.
Option 3. Another look at public funding.
Option 4. All of the above.
Yep, yep, and yep. You can read Gabi’s column here.
Updated
Just for planning purposes we expect the Labor announcement about savings measures at lunchtime of thereabouts. As you can see from the last post the Labor leader Bill Shorten has been visiting a school in Sydney’s south west.
Malcolm Turnbull will make a speech at lunchtime to the Menzies Research Centre.
In the event anyone feels the need to be transported back, momentarily, to their childhood in Catholic education.
"Good morning Mr Shorten, may God bless you," students of St Mary's Hurstville greet @billshortenmp & @LindaBurneyMP pic.twitter.com/Ri2lZMMJRs
— Rachel Baxendale (@rachelbaxendale) June 10, 2016
Barnaby and the vets
I didn’t have time to bring you this story yesterday but there’s some controversy about a decision by the deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce to move the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority from Canberra to Armidale, one of the towns in his north west NSW electorate of New England.
The public servants are less than happy. The ACT Liberal senator Zed Seselja is unhappy and Labor says Joyce has announced the move without a tick off from the prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Shadow agriculture minister, Joel Fitzgibbon.
I think Barnaby Joyce, under pressure in his own electorate, has left the reservation here. The prime minister obviously made clear he didn’t want this done without a cost benefit analysis. We’ve had no such report and yet Barnaby Joyce has gone and made this announcement.
I mentioned earlier today that I’d approached Labor HQ for a comment on the vanishing petitions. Here it is.
A Labor campaign spokesman:
These are old campaigns. The petitions were removed some time ago and are unrelated to today’s announcement. Working and middle-class families and pensioners will be better off under Labor.
I mentioned in the first post this morning sighing on the inside. Here’s the full sighing on the inside exchange between AM host Michael Brissenden and the treasurer Scott Morrison.
Q: The point is that debt and deficit are higher after three years of your government though, aren’t they?
Scott Morrison:
Debt and deficit are higher? Well deficit is not higher. The debt is higher because we’re still in deficit and we’re trying to reduce the deficit. We inherited a deficit from the Labor party; we inherited over $200bn worth of debt in net terms from the previous government. I mean they left us spending, going off into the never, never and we’ve been attempting to reduce that spending and under our budget we will be reducing that spending as a share of the economy over the budget and forward estimates as you well know Michael, but what you also know is, Labor have admitted that they’ll be increasing the debt and the deficit above what is in the budget and above what was confirmed in the PEFO statement confirmed by the treasury and finance secretaries.
Q: But they say they’ll bring the budget back into balance at the same time as you will?
Scott Morrison:
Wayne Swan said he would produce a surplus 366 times, Michael. Now ...
Q: And Joe Hockey promised a surplus in the first year ...
Scott Morrison:
If you want to believe the same old Labor rhetoric again, well then go right ahead.
Q: And Joe Hockey promised a surplus in the first year and every year after that. It never happened.
Scott Morrison:
Three-hundred-and-sixty-six times Wayne Swan said he would deliver a surplus. Now the Government is saying there is a projection based on the current perimeters for the budget to return to balance in 2021. That’s what we’re saying. What the Labor party is saying is you can rack up higher and higher levels of spending, increase the deficit, increase the debt and then in one magic year, it all turns around.
Updated
The pension campaign is still noted with a press release on Bill Shorten’s section of the ALP website, but it points people through to a dead link.
Labor is busy scrubbing the various petitions I’ve flagged this morning from the websites of shadow ministers. The pension petition is now gone from Tanya Plibersek’s website. Like end of lease cleaning.
I know it might seem odd to be tracking the fate of a sports stadium in Townsville, but it’s just one of those campaign touchstones. Bill Shorten has pledged money for the stadium, now the state Labor government in Queensland has pledged money for the project, the Coalition is yet to promise money for the project. The Liberals currently hold the electorate that takes in Townsville, the electorate of Herbert, on a margin of just over 6%. Labor has put big resources into north Queensland, as it has done for the last three or four election cycles without result. Thus far, the Coalition hasn’t felt compelled to match funding on the stadium. Whether that tells us something, or nothing, we’ll find out on 2 July. But it’s a barometer of sorts, more reliable than a marginal seats poll – in politics, it’s often safer to watch what political parties do.
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Laura Tingle from The Australian Financial Review has a good column today drawing together the threads of the economic debate this week. She writes through to the obvious point about the company tax cut, the centrepiece of the Coalition’s election offering. We have two versions of the cupboard being bare to consider at this election.
Laura Tingle:
So if the Coalition is returned, and manages to somehow get its company tax cut through the Senate (not at all certain), there must be a question about the real cost of the company tax cut.
However, if the company tax cut doesn’t get through the Senate – and that is certainly the more realistic prospect, the concern will not be so much about the budget cupboard being bare as the policy cupboard.
Just a little post about reassurance while I have a moment. As contradictory as Australian politics can be, as much as Australian politicians can say one thing and do another, there is a next level when it comes to internal contradiction, and here it is, courtesy of political mash up master Hugh Atkin.
'I try very hard to model my government, a modern cabinet government on that of John Howard'
Just to cover it off, the prime minister last night was the warm-up act for the former Liberal prime minister John Howard, at the Australian American Association benefit dinner in Sydney.
Malcolm Turnbull had this to say about John Howard:
To return to my distinguished mentor John Howard. I try very hard to model my government, a modern cabinet government on that of John Howard. He operated what I regard as the gold standard. Of course I am ably assisted there by having his former chief of staff Arthur Sinodinos who is here tonight as the cabinet secretary. I have always said that Arthur was a pillar of the Howard government and he is now as being a senator he’s now a flying buttress of mine.
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I’ve asked Labor’s campaign headquarters about the disappearing pensions petition. Courtesy of reader Bevan Shortridge you can see it archived here.
There’s also another dead link: http://www.givefamiliesafairgo.org/. You can see here an archived version of the campaign site which said the following:
The Liberals are cutting payments to more than 1.5m Aussie families, including single parents and grandparent carers, abolishing the Schoolkids Bonus, at the same time as making healthcare more expensive. And that’s before they increase the GST. Let’s show the Liberals that Australians don’t support these unfair cuts.
Showing you this goes to the heart of one of Labor’s challenges with the savings pivot today. The 2016 campaign slogan is putting people first. Obviously it’s difficult to go after what the economic rationalists are fond of calling “middle class welfare” if that’s the campaign slogan.
With the savings challenge, Labor is wedged between commentators who are demanding Labor show its fiscal bonafides, and its base.
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I posted this on Politics Live yesterday but worth a repost given the contents of today. This is the government’s list of savings measures that Labor has blocked in the Senate. So in essence Labor can pick and choose measures from this list to improve the budget bottom line, as well as come up with its own, alternative savings proposals.
The early reports today suggest the R&D measure at the end of this list is in Labor’s sights for cuts.
- Switching under-25s from Newstart to Youth Allowance ($639m)
- Ceasing the pensioner education supplement ($284m)
- One-week waiting period for working age payments ($256m)
- Ceasing the education entry payment ($65m)
- Revised higher education reforms ($3.27bn)
- Australian renewable energy (Arena) savings ($1.03bn)
- Abolish the seafarer tax offset ($16m)
- Maintain eligibility thresholds (indexation) ($302m)
- Opposing government measure of under-25s one-month youth income support waiting period ($245m)
- Phase out the family tax benefit end-of-year supplements ($6.34bn)
- Restructure of family tax benefit part B rates – less ceasing the FTB-B for couple families with children 13 years or over, which Labor has said it will support ($1.02bn)
- Changes to diagnostic imaging and pathology services bulk-billing incentives ($923m)
- Australian working life residence ($246m)
- New adult and child public dental scheme ($1.30bn)
- Abolishing the energy supplement ($1.33bn)
- Research and development tax incentive: reducing the rates of the refundable and non-refundable tax offsets ($890m)
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Oh petition, where art thou?
Mildly intriguing, a Labor petition badged Mr Turnbull: Don’t Pocket our Pension, has been taken down from the ALP website. There was an accompanying website: http://www.dontpocketourpension.com.au/ which is now a dead link.
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As I go live this morning, the Labor leader Bill Shorten is speaking to Wendy Harmer on the ABC in Sydney. Harmer is pretty annoyed that Shorten has come on her show to say, well … nothing.
Wendy Harmer:
Come in to tell me you aren’t saying anything? Come on give me a break. How can you come in here and tell me you are going to talk about it later?
Bill Shorten:
Cos that’s what I’m going to do.
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Mind the pivot
Thanks Calla, good morning everyone and welcome to Friday. Let’s start with what I’ve been saying all week. Labor has embarked on a critical pivot. The opening of the campaign has seen the opposition playing to its core electoral strengths, investments in social infrastructure, like health and education. This week has been about framing Labor’s position on the budget, and the economy, which is, traditionally at least, an area of comparative weakness for the ALP.
A few days ago, Labor set the scene to take a budget position to the voters which is worse over the out years, the four-year budget cycle, but better over the medium term because of the impact of structural savings. Yesterday, Labor put a question mark over the Coalition’s budget numbers, arguing there are saving measures baked in to the document that have absolutely no prospect of ever clearing the Senate. Today we will get specific savings proposals, including the adoption of some measures proposed by the government. The advance reports suggest family benefits. We will find out very soon.
Of course if Labor does match some of the government’s savings measures that will benefit the Coalition, it will make their own budget numbers more credible. But there’s no thanks on offer in the early morning news cycle. The treasurer, Scott Morrison, unleashed surround sound derision on the ABC this morning. I don’t know what backflips they will make today, Morrison said, but I know they have been dragged kicking and screaming to this. And just look at the bottom line, it’s worse over the forward estimates, that’s the only relevant metric. AM host Michael Brissenden was heard to sigh (on the inside) several times over the course of the interview. Morrison told Brissenden you can’t trust Labor to deliver a surplus, given Wayne Swan promised to deliver one hundreds of times and it never happened. Hang on, Brissenden said, Joe Hockey promised a surplus in the first year of an Abbott government and every year after. Morrison just kept talking. He’s pushed through now to the Sky studios, where he is still talking.
You don’t have to sigh on the inside, you can speak to your heart’s content. A reminder today’s comments thread is open for your business. If the thread’s too bracing for you, Mike Bowers and I are up and about on the twits – he’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo. If you only speak Facebook you can join my daily forum here. And if you want a behind-the-scenes look at the day and the campaign as a whole, give Mike a follow on Instagram. You can find him here.
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The treasurer, Scott Morrison, has labelled Labor’s announcement that it will announce some cuts to family payments a “backflip”, give the ALP’s strident opposition to the Coalition’s proposed cuts in these areas.
He told ABC radio earlier this morning:
I don’t know what other backflips they will make today, but what I do know is that whatever they do today, they’ve been dragged kicking and screaming to do it and with an alternative government in the Labor party, how would you know what they would do in government?
With that I’ll hand over to Katharine Murphy to guide you through the rest of the day.
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‘Say G’day to little Bill for me’
Bill Shorten has been on Sydney’s Triple M radio this morning taking calls from listeners and discussing his own earthiness, which apparently does not come across on camera.
He also discussed his new fitness regime, saying he’s fitter now than he was in his 20s, adding “that’s not saying much about my 20s”.
Shorten getting asked by #MMM why his 'earthiness' doesn't come through on camera, Shorten says he's becoming more himself #ausvotes
— Primrose Riordan (@primroseriordan) June 9, 2016
Speaking of age, one caller, who I believe was named Dan, was sceptical of Shorten’s.
“This is a personal question, how old are you, Bill?
“I’m 49.”
“That’s funny. No really, how old?”
I’m going to assume from his persistent digs that he quite liked the opposition leader. He signed off:
Say g’day to little Bill for me.
Shorten also sounded very relaxed. Must be that earthiness they were talking about.
Bill Shorten quotes Bart Simpson on Triple M: "Longtime listener, first time caller" #ausvotes
— Tom McIlroy (@TomMcIlroy) June 9, 2016
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To Toowoomba now, where Pauline Hanson has been campaigning at FarmFest, a large farming expo described by AAP as “the agricultural equivalent of Splendour in the Grass”.
Extending that analogy, it appeared Hanson, fresh from being declared an unwelcome presence in politics by the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, was the headline act.
This from AAP:
But if the way farmers lined up to shake her hand, hug her and pose for selfies is an indication, she’s anything but (unwelcome) to country Queenslanders.
“You keep going. Australia needs you!” one farmer yells, as Hanson gives her ear and attention to every last one of the supporters who swarm around her.
“You got a tonne of guts, girl,” Paul Foreman beams, as he beckons Hanson towards his stand at FarmFest, near Toowoomba, where he’s spruiking the virtues of his Limousin beef cattle.
Hanson tells Foreman she used to own a Limousin bull in the days when she used to keep cattle. She paid $2,000 for it but the damned thing died six weeks later.
They laugh and Hanson goes on to listen to what Foreman has to say about the challenges facing primary producers in Australia.
The consistent theme in comments of voters who support Hansen is that she’s real in a way that more conventional politicians are somehow not real.
This campaign is her seventh attempt to re-enter parliament.
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Details still pending
The opposition assistant treasury spokesman, Andrew Leigh, has told Radio National host Fran Kelly that the savings Labor will announce today are not as bad as everyone’s making out, but he won’t say what they will entail.
Leigh: You’ll see the details of the announcement later today, Fran.
Kelly: So can you confirm that some families will be worse off?
Leigh: You’ll have to wait for the announcement.
Leigh said the changes to family payments, whatever they turn out to be, had been “thought of through a Labor lens”.
You’ll see all of the details coming later today.
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While we’re looking west, locals are reportedly disgruntled that the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has only spent 15 hours of the 32 campaign days so far in their state. The suggestion is that Turnbull is taking WA for granted, which is a common gripe among West Australians.
The accusation does not appear to have been levelled at Bill Shorten who, according to the West Australian, has only spent three days in the state. Shorten is expected to head back to Perth this weekend.
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A look west now, where former prime minister and keen surfer Tony Abbott has weighed into the shark debate.
The debate, which was shelved after the Environmental Protection Authority scuppered the Barnett government’s highly controversial shark cull policy, reignited this month after two fatal shark attacks within five days off metropolitan beaches.
According to the West Australian, Abbott has advocated reopening the shark fishery off the coast of Perth in order to reduce the local shark population and therefore, so the logic goes, reduce the chance of shark attacks.
He said:
I’m all for conservation but not if it means that people die ... We need to restore the commercial shark fishery and consider meshing popular beaches as has happened off Sydney for decades.
Colin Barnett has not proposed reopening the fishery, for good reason: great white sharks, the species most commonly involved in fatal shark attacks, are listed as a threatened species protected under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. Removing that protection would be very difficult.
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Here’s a few more images from that break from the ordinary business of campaigning yesterday, when both Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull toured flood-affected towns in northern Tasmania.
One person has been confirmed dead in the floods and police hold grave fears for two other men, missing since Monday.
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Former independent MP Rob Oakeshott may or may not be recontesting his former set of Lyme: we’ll have to wait until midday to find out.
In an interesting move, Oakeshott has refused to confirm whether he had put his hand up, telling the Australian it would have to wait until the Australian Electoral Commission published the full list of candidates at midday today. Nominations closed yesterday.
Oakeshott has form when it comes to keeping people waiting. He famously spoke for 17 minutes after the 2010 hung election before finally announcing he would back Julia Gillard’s government.
Like his former crossbench colleague Tony Windsor, Oakeshott resigned from parliament at the 2013 election, saying “the demands on an independent MP in a regional seat are very high”.
Windsor is recontesting his former seat of New England.
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Good morning
Well, we made it.
Day 33 of the election campaign and there are now, officially, just over three weeks to go, which almost sounds a reasonable period of time to be following political leaders around on buses and pressing them on their fiscal responsibility.
Speaking of which, Labor appears set this morning to strap on its zombie-hunting gear and address some of those budget cuts that have languished on the notice paper since the former treasurer Joe Hockey’s strident 2014 budget.
These are measures, such as cuts to family payments, that Labor has long opposed and dubbed “zombie savings” because, while technically on the books, the Coalition has not been able to get them past the Senate.
We’ve yet to see the full detail, so here’s the speculation.
The big picture
The Labor party is trying to shake the impression that they’ve got red on them by announcing a new round of savings, which will reportedly include support for some of those Hockey budget cuts it has argued against for the past two years.
Labor will announce its own proposed changes to the family tax benefit, which it says will target higher-income households and protect those most in need.
In a statement to Fairfax Media, a Labor spokesperson said:
There are several Abbott-Hockey budget measures that have are stuck in the parliament. Despite not passing the parliament, they remain in the budget. On Friday Labor will confirm its position on these ‘zombie measures’.
We will resolve not to oppose some measures, and confirm our continued opposition to others. The ones we commit to reverse will be removed from our bottom line. This will mean the government’s budget contains unlegislated zombie measures, but ours will not.”
We will announce some new measures that better target family payments, while protecting those who need support the most. Families will still be better off under Labor.”
The Coalition has argued those “zombie savings” (definitely not their term) are worth $18.1bn but Labor is relying on costings from the Parliamentary Budget Office, which say they’re worth about $9bn.
In another dispute over the price of things, the Coalition has maintained that Labor’s economic plan has a black hole of $67bn, while the PBO has it at $22bn.
What’s a mere $45bn between friends?
Meanwhile Nick Xenophon, leader of the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT), has told the Conversation’s Michelle Grattan there is only a 0.0001% chance this election will end in a hung parliament, but if it does, he’ll be “pragmatic and constructive with whomever forms government”.
NXT is on track for at least three Senate seats in SA and possibly the lower house seat of Mayo, held by Liberal Jamie Briggs.
Xenophon outlined his appeal in this rather extraordinary sentence:
Because I think people are fed up with the cosy Coles-Woolies duopoly of the major parties; that they feel it is a case of Tweedledum and Tweedledee; that after seeing the so-called leaders’ debate a couple of Sundays ago, it almost felt like the Seinfeld election – an election about not much at all.
You can read the full interview here.
On the campaign trail
Both Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull will be in Sydney today, where the focus will remain on the budget.
The campaign you should be watching
The Nationals leader, Barnaby Joyce, has been accused of pork-barrelling after announcing on Wednesday that he would move the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority from Canberra to Armidale.
The move would bring 175 jobs to his seat of New England, where Joyce is facing a tough battle from former independent MP Tony Windsor, but the Community and Public Sector Union has argued that it would also mean the loss of almost 200 experienced researchers and staff, most of whom have said they don’t want to pack up and go country.
Joyce, according to Fairfax Media, has played down the move, saying that while there may be “apprehensiveness from some ... we’re not asking people to move to Kathmandu or Timbuktu”.
When they started moving departments to Canberra, Canberra wasn’t there, here we have a beautiful, vibrant, excited, cultivated and well-established city and also great for families.
This will be a good move.
The opposition agriculture spokesman, Joel Fitzgibbon, said the proposed move made no sense, telling ABC radio in Canberra:
The APVMA is a regulatory authority, it deals with the chemical companies that produce the crop protection chemicals for [inaudible] the farmers and of course veterinarian medicines etc. Their interface is with the multinational companies, not with farmers.
And another thing(s)
The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, joined the former prime minister John Howard at the 10th anniversary dinner for the American Australian Association and US Studies Centre in Sydney last night, and continued the tradition of Australian leaders gushing over the US of A.
He also touched on the importance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership:
Similarly, in the new strategic domain of cyberspace, President Obama and I share a deep commitment to ensuring that the architecture and administration of the internet remains free of government domination, without deteriorating into a lawless domain.
Speaking of the US, the Democratic presidential nominee, Hilary Clinton, had this to say when Donald Trump questioned Obama’s endorsement:
Delete your account. https://t.co/Oa92sncRQY
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) June 9, 2016
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