Nearly night time politics
Ok I need to put down the loaded weapon known as live publishing because I am in danger of shooting myself in the foot. So let me summarise the day that was.
- This time yesterday, there were still people merrily attending polling booths, downing democracy sausages, chewing the fat over the expected Malcolm Margin in the great 2o16 federal election. Twenty four hours later it has all gone to excrement.
- Turnbull has given a short, sharp press conference to make a few points. 1. I would have preferred a clearer outcome. 2. There may be no clear outcome until the end of next week. 3. Parliaments are the houses of the people and democracy is our friend. Hello independents. 4. Tony Abbott will not be coming back to the ministry. Dream on Delcons.
- Shorten has given a longer, more relaxed presser. His points were were also clear. 1. Labor is back. 2. I have never been more confident of my leadership. 3. Anthony Albanese is a top bloke. 4. Malcolm Turnbull should grab the opportunity of common ground on marriage equality and climate change.
- Nick Xenophon, keeper of one in the lower house and up to three in the Senate, has a number of things to make clear. 1. I have a party of the centre so I will deal with both sides in the event of a hung parliament. (But I will be swayed by ultimate numbers.) 2. The majors did play dirty against me on advertising and preferences but I do not hold grudges. 3. If Christopher Pyne suggests Mayo under NXT would be disadvantaged, I will make a call to my new best friend the PM.
- Malcolm Turnbull has rung Cathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie, to clear the communications channels. This would suggest the Coalition is continuing to workshop the potential for a hung parliament. Lucky the parliament is the house of the people and lucky we really love it.
- Except Tony Abbott, great rocker of boats in the 43rd parliament, who lamented the Americanisation of politics which leads to the erosion of power of executive government. Somewhere Julia Gillard laughed maniacally.
- The Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce enjoyed a flat white with his wife Nat and their dachshund after winning his seat against challenger Tony Windsor.
- The senate looks like a mixed bag, involving Pauline Hanson, Jacqui Lambie, Derryn Hinch, Xenophon and possibly three others. While the count continues, we can safely say the senate has not been “cleaned out” as per Malcolm Turnbull’s wishes.
- In the house, at publication, the seats were tracking LNP 65, Labor 64, Others 5 with 134 out of 150 confirmed.
Counting will resume on Tuesday.
Thanks so much for your company.
Goodnight.
Updated
Hello Matt.
@gabriellechan Hello. So you're saying @LiberalAus couldn't hold the mayo? pic.twitter.com/FFrLEZii5k
— The Matt Hatter (@MattGlassDarkly) July 3, 2016
#justsaying
The Senate: what could go wrong? Part 2
Our best guesstimate for the Senate is covered here by Ben Doherty.
The numbers as a result fall thus:
- LNP 29
- Labor 27
- Green 9
- Xenophon 3 (see below)
- Pauline Hanson, possibly 3
- Jacqui Lambie 1
- Derryn Hinch 1
- Three extras.
Total 76
Updated
Welcome to your new NXT senators with Mayo on the side.
Soz. I blame lack of sleep.
Given we are talking of speeches:
In case you missed Turnbull's speech last night, here's a brief recap #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/PMhc4CM1jt
— Dave Cooper (@DCoopes) July 3, 2016
Katharine Murphy has written a piece contrasting last night’s speeches.
There were many curiosities on election night in 2016, but one stood out. The likely loser of the contest made a victory speech, and the likely winner made the diminished speech of a man who had suffered a profound loss.
If you want to relive the night – and in some ways it is worth reliving if only with the 20-20 of hindsight – it is worth having another look at Murph’s blog.
Updated
Shorten says he doesn't want another election, nor does the crossbench
Shorten has rung a number of the crossbenchers. He won’t say who but he says their mood is constructive.
They want to be constructive, they don’t want Australia rushing back to the polls, I certainly don’t.
Shorten to Turnbull: grab the opportunity on marriage equality and climate change
Bill Shorten urges Turnbull to work on the common ground rather than the disagreements.
If Malcolm Turnbull could go back to being the old Malcolm Turnbull and stand up the climate change, we could do a deal in very short time. If he could go back to being the old Malcolm Turnbull before he was hostage to the right wing of his party, we could sort out marriage equality within 100 days of this election. If Malcolm Turnbull wants to be constructive on infrastructure and depoliticise it, I’m sure we can get things done. When we look at the crossbenchers I’m sure they want to be constructive as well.
Shorten: I have never been more certain of my leadership than I am this morning.
Shorten is asked the chances of forming a government. Shorten does not answer. Then questions about his confidence in his own leadership.
Q: What is your message to Anthony Albanese given reports this morning that he is already campaigning for your job?
I have never been more certain of my leadership than I am this morning.
Updated
Shorten: "Last night was a historic night. The Labor party is most certainly back."
Bill Shorten:
The public have spoken, I’m not sure who has finally won, we should now allow our professional Australian Electoral Commission to do their job and count the votes. What I’m very sure of is that while we don’t know who the winner was, there is clearly one loser, Malcolm Turnbull’s agenda for Australia and his efforts to cut Medicare.
Updated
Positions vacant: no thanks says Xenophon
Are you prepared to accept positions in a government if it comes to a minority government? Or would you simply reach an agreement on confidence?
Xenophon:
Again, it’s complete hypothetical. If you’re talking about accepting a ministry, I can talk from my point of view, absolutely not.
Shorten coming up Shortly.
Xenophon warns Christopher Pyne: back off or I'll ring the PM
Rebekha Sharkie is asked about her effort. She gives a shout out to Indi’s Cathy McGowan, who won Indi on a handful of votes and then increased her margin last night.
Sharkie is asked about comments from ChristopherPyne that “Mayo will suffer as a result of your election”. It would appear Pyne has gone the full Mirabella.
Sharkie says if “Mayo suffered because it was no longer a Liberal seat and that suffering was caused by a Liberal government, I think that would be really disappointing”.
But Xenophon goes a step further, quickly making use of his new muscles.
I just can’t help myself. I have to respond to that response. Christopher Pyne is a consummate politician. It’s a pity he’s still a consummate student politician. If he is saying that the people of Mayo will be punished for supporting Rebecca, then that’s something I’ll be taking up directly with the Prime Minister.
Xenophon: hung parliament increasingly likely
Just while Gabi is dealing with the tail end of the prime minister, Nick Xenophon is speaking to reporters in Adelaide.
I didn’t think there would be a hung parliament but that now seems to be increasingly likely.
He says the NXT candidate is also still in the hunt in the seat of Grey, which would deliver the fledgling party another lower house seat.
He’s asked who he would support in the event of a minority government.
It’s too early to say. It depends what crossbench colleagues are doing in the lower house.
Xenophon says the NXT will be inclined to support the party that can deliver a stable government.
Xenophon says he has spoken to the prime minister, but not the Labor leader yet. Bill Shorten may have called, he says, but his phone has been in meltdown.
He says he’s spoken to Derryn Hinch and Jacqui Lambie, and no doubt he will try and speak to cross bench colleagues in the HoR in the coming days. He reasons the NXT didn’t do better last night in part because Labor ran an intense campaign against the party on penalty rates.
He also openly considered some sort of truth in political advertising reforms, given parties can say what they like.
There was a very misleading, deceitful scare campaign from the ALP in relation to penalty rates. It was a lie. I had to put up corrective advertising, nowhere near to the extend of their misleading advertising. There’s a real argument for some truth in political advertising laws. Why should politicians be exempt from the sort of laws that apply to misleading and deceptive advertising that apply to corporations and individuals.
Xenophon makes an inference that the penalty rates campaign might have been funded by the gaming lobby.
I couldn’t counter act it. I didn’t have the funds. We didn’t have the funds to do so. But would be interesting to see where that money came from. I understand the gambling lobby pump add lot of money into the major parties to fund that sort of campaign. My understanding is at least $500,000 of advertising was purposed into South Australia over the last few days before the blackout.
Updated
One last question to Turnbull:
Have you failed to deliver stability?
The stability that will be delivered by the parliament will be assessed by all Australians after the parliament is elected and after the formation of a majority government.
Tony Abbott back in the ministry? Meh, says PM
Turnbull is asked whether he will welcome Tony Abbott back to the ministry. WA senator Chris Back has suggested to James Massola at Fairfax if Turnbull wants the best skills in the ministry, he should have Abbott back.
The ministry will be the same after the election, as it is now. We have lost a number of ministers of – have – well, a number of ministers have not been returned, you are right. I am not proposing to bring back any particular individuals.
Updated
Turnbull may be in a mood to talk but he is in no mood for another election.
Perhaps, a follow-up election?
We are committed to ensuring that the parliament, as elected, will work effectively and constructively for the Australian people.
Turnbull: hung parliament a disaster, no longer
Malcolm Turnbull is in the mood to respect the people’s house.
It is very important to recognise that this is the people’s house, the people have chosen the members of the parliament, and we will work with all of them to deliver the stability and the leadership that Australians expect.
Updated
Turnbull: I have spoken to a number of the crossbenchers
I have spoken to a number of the crossbenchers, and we, what I have said to them is what I say to you now. We remain confident we will be able to form a majority government and in those circumstances or indeed, in any circumstances, we always seek to work constructively with all of the members of the parliament as indeed we have sought to do in the past.
Turnbull: may be no election result until the end of next week
Malcolm Turnbull:
While the count will take a number of days, probably until the end of next week, I can promise all Australians that we will dedicate our efforts to ensuring that the state of new parliament is resolved without division or rancour. The expectation is on all of us, especially me as prime minister, to get on with the job. Australians have my absolute commitment, as prime minister, that I will be working to that goal.
Turnbull:
[Pre-polls] will determine the result in as many as 12 undecided seats, and there may be recounts in other close contests. I suspect that we will see seats moving from one side of the ledger to the other until the count is completed at the end of the week. Now, as you know, our experience is that these postal votes and pre-poll votes, indeed, traditionally favour Liberal and National Party candidates, especially when they are incumbents. So, if that trend were to be manifest again here, that is likely to deliver majority government to the Coalition, but time will tell.
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull: I would have preferred a clearer outcome
Malcolm Turnbull is up now:
We would have preferred a clearer outcome. It will be a number of days before the Electoral Commission completes the count. I remain quietly confident that a majority Coalition government will be returned at this election when the counting is completed.
He said it remains unclear partly because almost a third of voters pre-polled.
Updated
No deals.
Back in Point Piper 2.
Back in Point Piper.
Barnaby bounces back.
Richard Di Natale is asked about Labor’s scare campaign on Medicare. He has a bob each way.
Under the Coalition, with the freeze on the Medicare rebates, with the gutting of the public hospital agreement and ripping billions of dollars away from public hospitals, they did take the hatchet to our health system. Of course the Labor Party overegged it. The privatisation issue, to be frank, was a sideshow. The truth was scary enough and what we saw with the scare campaign was just a reflection of where modern politics is.
On the Greens vote nationally, the party got 9.95% of the lower house vote, representing a swing towards them of 1.3%.
In the senate, so far, they have 8.84%, representing a swing away of 0.39%.
So far. Underline.
Richard Di Natale is having a press conference. He is asked about superannuation and he won’t be boxed in, given he doesn’t know what either the Liberal or Labor party policy will be.
Those with us last night will know that Eric Abetz said superannuation had caused a vote “haemorrhage”. Abetz foreshadowed a re-evaluation of the policy – that is he would take it back to the party room. And prior to the election, Labor booked the Coalition’s superannuation savings without saying what bits they would add to Labor policy.
Updated
Shorten is coming up at 1.30pm.
The morning after.
After eight weeks on the road, great to have a late breakfast with the family. pic.twitter.com/ApyVvOR2qB
— Bill Shorten (@billshortenmp) July 3, 2016
Here is a bit of Andrew Wilkie, via Triple J’s Hack program. Hello Shalailah.
Independent Andrew Wilkie says he won't be making deals on power-sharing with either party #ausvotes https://t.co/l49uPabTGx
— triplejHack (@triplejHack) July 3, 2016
Lunchtime politics: a whole lot of workshopping going on
Today it is Sunday lunchtime. In the real world people are carrying on their normal lives. A Sunday lunch, a brunch, a hike, a surf, a spine-bash (as my grandmother would say) on the lounge with the papers. Here is what parliamentary types are doing:
- The prime minister is making friends with the independents. The evils of minority government are being put aside in the event that he has to have more regular conferences with a handful of independents. At this stage, those indies look like being Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo) of NXT, Cathy McGowan (Indi), Andrew Wilkie (Denison) and Bob Katter (KAP) . Wilkie and McGowan have had calls. We can’t get on to Xenophon – his message bank is full. The government is clearly workshopping a minority government. You would have to say on the numbers it is a considerable possibility.
- On the Labor side, there has been leadership rumblings. Albo is standing off stage but a certain section of the party is trying to contain it – given Labor may need to negotiate in a hung parliament. Stat.
- Tony Abbott held a sweaty doorstop ruminating about the difficulties for executive government. The man who did more than any other to disrupt the 43rd parliament now describes the difficulties of minority/close parliaments as the “Americanisation” of politics.
- The count continues but the postal votes require 13 days to return by law, as the Australian Electoral Commissioner.
-
We may see leaders bob up soon. I shall keep you posted.
Updated
Meanwhile in the Northern Territory, my fellow blogger in crime says:
@gabriellechan https://t.co/5LD3HmegQ1
— Helen Davidson (@heldavidson) July 3, 2016
Just to wrap some more numbers around the informal vote in the senate.
There were a total of 532,590 informal votes, representing 6.1% of the total vote. These were votes lost or deliberately informal. That is the swing of 3.17% that Grogs is talking about.
Updated
Thanks to Grogs for this:
So far a 3.17% swing to informal votes for the Senate... pic.twitter.com/CsB74l7hsN
— Greg Jericho (@GrogsGamut) July 3, 2016
So to recap, Turnbull has rung indies Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan but our lastest info is that Bob Katter has not had a call.
Katter has been reflecting on the ABC on the swing towards him after a 2.2% margin he won in 2013 off the back of Palmer preferences. If I could translate more directly, it would be that last time Katter tried a widespread campaign for the Katter Australia Party. It drew him out of the electorate and you may remember the wheels fell off. His voters did not like that he was not in the electorate.
But you personally, I mean, Bob, for Kennedy, you campaigned specifically for Kennedy this election, would you say? Because last election, it was very close for you ...
I wasn’t in the electorate at all, I suppose. And, um, they ... the Liberals ran an absolutely brilliant campaign, a lying campaign, but quite brilliant. And they spent millions and millions of dollars. Well, they probably clocked up $1m this time too. I was very heavily involved directly and, I think the campaign was quite good. But I think have had enough of the mainstream parties and that’s very evident in this electorate.
Updated
From Australian federal police, via Gareth Hutchens:
The AFP says it “received a referral” yesterday in relation to receipt of text messages allegedly sent from Medicare. It says the matter’s now being evaluated so it can’t comment further on it.
Updated
Turnbull to indies: Today, you are all my friends.
I will not be making any deals with any party. The prime minister is confident he will form majority government #indivotes
— Cathy McGowan (@Indigocathy) July 3, 2016
Tony Abbott: the real Americanisation of politics is lack of executive power
Tony Abbott just got off his bike.
It’s not a day for speculation. It’s a day for taking stock.
He mentions the colleagues who have lost their seats. Something – it has been noticed – that Malcolm Turnbull did not do last night.
Good people who tried hard, who did what they thought was the best for our country, who were in the parliament are no longer in the parliament. It’s sad for them and it’s sad for the rest of us.
Abbott bats away questions on whether he would have had a better win. He does reflect on the nature of the close result, expressing some serious concerns over the difficulties for executive governments. (Except if they’re Labor ones obvs.)
This is a serious long term problem for our country. The real Americanisation of our politics is not privatisation. The real Americanisation of our politics is the growing difficulty the executive has getting its legislation through the parliament. That’s the real Americanisation of politics.
Every bill, certainly every difficult bill, now has to be fought for, vote by vote, clause by clause and I think this is a real problem, particularly for a government that needs to make tough decisions on spending, tough decisions on a whole range of areas, economic and national security.
He is asked whether there should be “reform” in that area. (I’m not entirely sure whether you can reform your way through a democratic vote.)
Updated
Postal votes: Thirteen days is the wait. The wait is 13 days.
Electoral commissioner Tom Rogers is speaking to the ABC. There are 5000 people working on the votes today. (I take it all back.)
Do you know when the result will be declared?
Five thousand people are working on the declaration vote process, it will take time. The important point for people to know, we have to wait for 13 days after polling for postal votes to return. It is not just for some of these close seats we are waiting. By law we have to wait for postal votes for 13 days after polling stops, given that for these seats many could be just a handful of votes.
Updated
National party state director Nathan Quigley is rubbing it in this morning.
Third election in a row where no independents elected in regional NSW
— Nathan Quigley (@Nathan_Quigley) July 3, 2016
Andrew Wilkie to Malcolm Turnbull: read my lips, no deal
Denison independent Andrew Wilkie is underlining the position he has enunciated for a while. He will not sign a deal to keep a minority government in power. He told Malcolm Turnbull this very fact this morning when the prime minister rang him.
Yes, the prime minister called me this morning, and there is actually no remarkable substance of that discussion to recount to you. It was ensuring that the channels of communication are open and I took the opportunity to tell him of my election commitment to the community about no deals, and he was quite understanding about that.
Wilkie said he will deal on each piece of legislation on its merits. Wilkie signed the 2010 agreement with Julia Gillard and then had a bust up over her backing down on the poker machine reform bill. He learned, as did other indies, no agreement was necessary.
Q: Do you have more respect for him now than you did?
I have a lot of respect for Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten. I have gotten to know both of them really well. I think both of them are pretty decent characters. I don’t agree with some of the Liberal party’s policies, I don’t agree with some of the Labor party policies. But as far as Malcolm Turnbull’s survival from this point of time, it is entirely a matter for the Liberal party. None of my business.
Q: Last night Turnbull was saying he was confident of a Coalition government? Do you think the fact he called you last night means that is not the case?
He did want to keep the channels of communication open. Do you think it is a hung parliament? I cannot read his mind, the fact he took the time to have a short conversation with me this morning means he needs an open channel of communication. It is a very tight margin he has, you only have to have a troublemaker in the Coalition across the floor and they lose the vote.
Wilkie rules out becoming part of a voting bloc with other minor parties or independents. He has a simple explanation for the result.
There is a simple explanation for the unprecedented vote for independents and minor parties. And that is the unprecedented level of dismay with Labor and Liberal, Liberal and Labor. We have increasingly a political ruling class, self-obsessed, obsessed with their political self-interest, increasingly out of step with the community. The community wants well-funded hospitals and well-funded schools. The community wants poker machine reform, a whole range of issues where the government and often the alternative government are out of step with the community.
Updated
The Albo thing. Press the pause button.
It’s worth thinking the Albo thing through. Sky News has tweeted:
#BREAKING: Senior sources have told Sky News Bill Shorten is expected to face a contest for leadership against Anthony Albanese.
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) July 2, 2016
Albo has always been there. He has been there since he ran against Bill Shorten after the 2013 election. The over-riding calculation at the minute is this: that we do not have a result in the 2016 election. The parliament is looking decidedly hung, if not a shave off. In those circumstances, the party has to consider whether it would be wise to start the leadership ball rolling without knowing where it will end up. Remember how long it took in the last hung parliament? There are positions to negotiate. For Labor to bow out of the field now would be a kind of madness, until things are more certain. The new rules require half party room/half membership ballot. The latter takes time. This would leave Labor effectively without a leader for that time.
Updated
We need to yell something. I know: Turnbull!
Gareth Hutchens was in camp Turnbull last night. He has written a sketch about how the night unfolded.
Liberal supporters gathered in front of the stage at Malcolm Turnbull’s election night speech were urging each other to make some noise.
Not knowing they were standing next to reporters, they elbowed each other, saying, “We need to yell something.”
“Turnbull! Turnbull!”
Red red ready red rooster.
Updated
An important message from the Australian Electoral Commish
On election night, the AEC counted more than 11 million House of Representatives votes. These included the votes cast in polling places on election day and votes cast in early voting centres. These results, down to polling place level, are available on the AEC’s Tally Room. The AEC also conducted a first preference count of Senate ballot papers cast in polling places.
The AEC’s focus today, Sunday 3 July, is on the declaration vote exchange. The declaration vote exchange is where the large numbers of absent, interstate, postal and other declaration votes are reconciled, sorted and packaged ready for despatch to the home division from Monday. Only once the declaration votes are received and processed in the home division can the counting of these votes begin. Any counting today will be limited to the small numbers of votes collected by AEC mobile teams.
On Monday, the AEC will continue the process of verifying more than one million postal votes already returned to the AEC so that they can be admitted to the count beginning on Tuesday. The legislation requires that postal votes are included in the count if the vote is received by the Returning Officer within 13 days of election day.
In parallel, the count of Senate pre-poll ordinary votes and any remaining House of Representatives ordinary pre-poll votes not already counted on Saturday night may also start on Monday.
The Australian federal police, fresh from the NBN raids, is preparing to make a statement on the referral from the Coalition to investigate the texts relating to Medicare.
This was the text.
Has anyone else received this text message? Is Labor pretending to be Medicare? #ausvotes #democracysausage pic.twitter.com/u5rimbWIPu
— David Lewis (@dlewis89) July 2, 2016
Updated
Nick Xenophon: Major parties, you are on notice
Xenophon has made significant gains in this election and he is going to build on them. He says NXT went close in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt, will have a shot in Grey and got high 20s in Barker. All of which sets him up for the next election.
I think it puts the major parties on notice and we will continue to work in those electorates very hard and I’m not a sole trader now in the Senate. It means I will be joined by colleagues who I have a lot of respect for where we will work as a team and we can do so much more.
Updated
You would be silly to ignore the weight of arithmetic Barrie
Cassidy: You were saying last night you would take the numbers into account. What do you mean by that? That if one party had more seats than the other, that would be very important to you?
Xenophon:
It’s simple arithmetic as to who can form government and it doesn’t depend just on me, it depends on my crossbench colleagues, it depends on Andrew Wilkie and Bob Katter and Cathy McGowan, so there are a number of factors there. And the Greens have made it clear that they will only do a deal with the ALP.
Q: But you would have respect for the party that ended up with the highest number of seats?
It would be a big factor you take into account. You would be silly to ignore the weight of arithmetic.
Updated
Xenophon gave a nod to the high level of scrutiny during the election.
Cassidy asks: A lot was thrown at you, and not only from the major parties but from the media as well, your father was dragged into it and was attacked, how did you feel about all of that?
Look, the silver lining is that I get a chance to tell the world how much I love my 85-year-old dad who I’m going to see after this, so it was pretty rugged but I’ve got through it and now there is a lot of work to do in terms of issues that are facing not just South Australia but the nation.
Nick Xenophon says he may have three Senate spots
Nick Xenophon tells Barrie Cassidy he is still in with a chance in Grey and will probably get three seats in the Senate.
We’re sitting at about 2.84 quotas, but who’s counting, in South Australia. And Senate candidates in the rest of the country, the Nick Xenophon Team candidates have got 0.19 [per cent of the vote], or about 25% of the quota, so that final Senate seat in a number of those states will be up for grabs and this is unchartered waters in terms of a new Senate voting system, which I supported, but at least the voters decide who will be the senator and not the back room deals of the preference whisperers and the major and minor parties.
Updated
There has been little said about the National party since the result.
The Nats have actually had a good campaign. They have picked up the seat of Murray, which was held by Sharman Stone until she retired at this election. The former Victorian MP Damien Drum beat the Liberals’ Duncan McGauchie in a three-cornered contest. Don’t forget that late preference deal between the Liberals and the Labor party made it that much harder for Drum. The return of that seat to the National party fold is a return of sorts to the status quo. Before Sharman it was a National party seat.
Barnaby Joyce won his seat of New England on a two-party-preferred basis 52-48, holding off a challenge from Tony Windsor. Windsor’s primary vote was almost 30% and he harvested most of the preferences. Notwithstanding the vote, New England got a whole lot of attention and while the Nats would bank the win, they surely would be on notice that their electorates are slipping into not-so-safe territory.
Luke Hartsuyker also appears to have fought off a late challenge from Rob Oakeshott though the AEC still has it too close to call. That result is really surprising given that was not Oakeshott’s seat, he announced his candidature just weeks before the election and faced a fierce media campaign and a whole lot of government resources.
Apart from Barnaby, deputy leader Fiona Nash was everywhere. While Joyce was tied to his seat, she did a lot of heavy lifting, so that has established her in that relatively new position.
Updated
The Senate: that worked well, didn't it?
The Senate count will be even slower than the House of Reps. There is a whole lot of unfolding going on – but not today – Sunday being a day of rest for the Australian Electoral Commission. (My suggestion would be to pay the penalty rates and be done with it.)
Here is a Senate wrap from Ben Doherty.
The government’s desire for a more workable Senate – one of its key reasons for calling a double dissolution – has backfired badly, with a similarly-sized, and likely equally recalcitrant, cross-bench set to take seats on the red benches.
Pauline Hanson has been returned to federal parliament almost 20 years after she left it. The former one-term MHR for Oxley – from 1996 to 1998 – and founder of the One Nation party, will win a Senate seat in Queensland, and says she will take her seat in the upper house “for the people of Australia”.
The localised electoral force of Nick Xenophon is likely to return three senators in his home state of South Australia, to go along with his party’s lone lower house MP Rebekha Sharkie, who deposed former Turnbull government minister Jamie Briggs in Mayo.
Jacqui Lambie, the former Palmer United Party senator, has polled a quota in Tasmania and will take her Senate seat under the banner of her newly-formed Jacqui Lambie Network.
And 72-year-old Derryn Hinch, the self-proclaimed “Human Headline”, voted for what he says is the first time in his life on Saturday, and has claimed he will win a Victorian Senate seat.
He tweeted late on Saturday night: “We’ve called it we are in.”
The Greens appear set to win at least nine, possibly 10, Senate seats.
Hanson, who has been a serial candidate in state and federal polls in recent years, thanked supporters late on Saturday night, saying she came “extremely close” to quitting politics after she was jailed for electoral fraud. The conviction was later quashed.
“I remember coming out of prison and saying I’d have rocks in my head to actually go back and do it again,” she said.
“But the support I’ve received from Australians ... and the encouragement I’ve received from the Australian people is why I’ve kept going.”
Hanson has said she will call for a royal commission into the religion of Islam if elected.
Updated
Of course on the Liberal side there are recriminations. We had the Cory Bernardi text last night to party pollster Mark Textor. It was essentially a dig about how the conservatives rule, OK.
@TextorMark Hey Tex, I'm thinking that Conservatives actually do matter.
— Cory Bernardi (@corybernardi) July 2, 2016
There is this sort of feeling on the twits today.
@gabriellechan my lib membership is up for renewal..not going to happen..
— richard w sampson (@sampson305rw) July 2, 2016
@gabriellechan hello, thank you for reply. the lib swing to Turnbull left has not suited my politics..not why i signed up...
— richard w sampson (@sampson305rw) July 2, 2016
Leadership speculation around Bill Shorten has begun, in fine stereo with the speculation around Malcolm Turnbull.
Former NSW secretary and now senator Sam Dastyari is talking to Sky. He says no one is suggesting Shorten will not be leader.
Not a single person has been on the phone to me since the election finished last night...
He dances a lovely salsa around questions around whether Albanese should rule out leadership challenges.
It is like Donkey Kong in the Liberal party right now.
There has been a lot of angst about Labor’s Medicare scare campaign. Attorney general George Brandis and Josh Frydenberg, Malcolm Turnbull in his speech and Scott Morrison, Julie Bishop and Arthur Sinodinos; all have been yelling it from the rooftops. Brandis mentioned on Sky that he thought the text message sent out to voters by mobile had been referred to the police. I will find the text for you asap.
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Cassidy asks Frydenberg about the original strategy of a double dissolution.
One thing is certain – the Coalition will not have the numbers in a joint sitting. Did you blow that strategy, the double dissolution strategy?
We called a double dissolution election because we thought that the ABCC and the Registered Organisations Bill were critical to Australia’s future economic prosperity and they had been blocked by the Labor party and others in the Senate. Now, this issue was discussed during the campaign, it was part of our formal advertising program.
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Barrie Cassidy is speaking with Labor frontbencher Brendan O’Connor.
Do you see any make-up there or any scenario that could lead to 76 seats for Labor?
Look, as it stands, Barrie, anything is possible. This matter was unresolved last night. It’s still unresolved. We have counting that occurs on Tuesday. I think certainly Labor is there in a position to talk to independents and others but at this point, I have to say, this has been a remarkable result for Labor. We were written off – if you think about three years ago, we were divided, bereft of perhaps some direction, and under the leadership of Bill Shorten we’ve united, we’ve led on policy, the government has followed and I think our campaign was strong.
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Liberal frontbencher Josh Frydenberg is speaking on the ABC’s Insiders. He says the Coalition is still hopeful of governing and a majority of seats in doubt are going their way.
This contrasts with well connected conservative commentator Niki Savva who says the Coalition is less hopeful of forming a majority than it was last night.
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Back to your room pollies and sort it out
There is a bit of commentary around this morning, including by Paul Kelly that there may have been a “denial” among voters of the economic problems facing Australia. That is, the voter, you, me and everyone else, has got it wrong.
I disagree. For my money, there was a disconnection between the national debate and the conversation on the streets. People not involved in politics were disengaged and disappointed with Malcolm Turnbull. Neither were they wild with Bill Shorten, though they connected better with Labor’s issues like health and education rather than corporate tax cuts. (This was evident in the people’s forums.) It wasn’t anger, though I picked up pockets of crankiness. It was more: go back to your room and sort it out. We the voters don’t like what we are seeing. Go back and get it right. And when you think about it, a hung parliament will force everyone into a room to negotiate rather than yell from separate rooms. This result tells me: find common ground.
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Antony Green's ABC seat count
Coalition 66
Labor 67
Greens 1
Xenophon 1
McGowan
Katter
Wilkie
In doubt 12:
Capricornia, Chisholm, Cowan, Dickson, Dunkley, Forde, Gilmore, Grey, Herbert, Hindmarsh, La Trobe, Petrie
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Australian Electoral Commission numbers
The Australian Electoral Commission has these results:
- Coalition 66
- Labor 72
- Greens 1
- Katter 1
- Xenophon 1
- McGowan 1
- Wilkie 1
- In doubt 7
In doubt: Barker, Cowper, Durack, Grayndler, Grey, Higgins, O’Connor.
Close: Hindmarsh, Forde, Chisolm, Gilmore, Dunkley.
You may notice these are wildly different. For example, Labor’s Anthony Albanese is considered by his party to be home and hosed. Yet his seat is on the doubtful list.
There will be no counting today, just so you know.
There is still a difference in interpretations of seats. The Australian Electoral Commission, as opposed to Antony Green, as opposed to the wires. I will bring you all of these. You decide.
The election by numbers via AAP.
- Coalition 67
- Labor 67
- Greens 1
- Independent 4
- In doubt 11
These are the seats Labor has gained from the Coalition:
Eden-Monaro, Macarthur, Macquarie, Lindsay (NSW); Longman (QLD); Bass, Braddon, Lyons (TAS); Solomon (NT); Burt (WA)
Nick Xenophon has picked up Mayo (SA) from the Coalition.
In doubt:
Coalition trailing: Capricornia, Forde, Herbert (QLD); Cowan (WA); Hindmarsh (SA)
Coalition just in front: Gilmore (NSW); Dickson, Petrie (QLD); Dunkley, La Trobe, Chisholm (VIC).
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Good morning blogsters,
I begin this blog journey with that sand-in-the-eyeballs feeling. The decisive election result, the call for stability in this 2016 federal election from the major parties, has gone unheeded. Voters have once again delivered a cliffhanger. As of this morning, up to 11 seats remain in play. This is the wrap I wrote in the wee small hours of the morning.
Just to recap, Malcolm Turnbull said last night he believed he had the seats for a (wafer thin) majority. He was shrill and defensive. Bill Shorten gave the winner’s speech, saying it was vindication (essentially) for Labor’s agenda. He asserted, not without merit, that Turnbull had lost his mandate.
This morning, Labor frontbencher Richard Marles said he believed a hung parliament was still in play. He believes Labor is not without a chance of forming government.
I have many thoughts on this result which I will share with you shortly.
In the meantime, you can catch me on the Twits @gabriellechan and somewhere @mpbowers is out there, chasing the leaders. You can also talk to me on Facebook or in the thread. Lets get on with it ... hi ho Silver.
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