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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
National
Katharine Murphy and Melissa Davey (earlier)

Election 2016: Coalition leads Labor 51% to 49% in Essential poll – politics as it happened

Opposition leader Bill Shorten gives Chloe Shorten a bunch of orange roses during a street walk at Westfield Carindale in Brisbane which falls within the Federal electorate of Bonner this afternoon, Tuesday 31st May 2016.
Opposition leader Bill Shorten gives Chloe Shorten a bunch of orange roses during a street walk at Westfield Carindale in Brisbane which falls within the Federal electorate of Bonner this afternoon, Tuesday 31st May 2016. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Nighty night

Well that’s sufficient I think for this evening. Blessings to you all for tagging along for another day on the campaign trail.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull tours research labs, viewing frozen cancer cells and live cancer cells under a microscope, during his visit to the Lowy Cancer Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Randwick, Sydney, Tuesday, May, 31, 2016.
Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull tours research labs, viewing frozen cancer cells and live cancer cells under a microscope, during his visit to the Lowy Cancer Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Randwick, Sydney, Tuesday, May, 31, 2016. Photograph: Lyndon Mechielsen/AAP

Let’s take stock of Tuesday.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is greeted by 6-year-old cancer patient Lulu Demetriou (centre) and fellow patient 7-year-old Georgia Burgess (back) during his visit to the Lowy Cancer Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Randwick, Sydney, Tuesday, May, 31, 2016.
Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is greeted by 6-year-old cancer patient Lulu Demetriou (centre) and fellow patient 7-year-old Georgia Burgess (back) during his visit to the Lowy Cancer Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Randwick, Sydney, Tuesday, May, 31, 2016. Photograph: Tracey Nearmy/AAP
  • Malcolm Turnbull turned the focus to health and medical research but the deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop fumbled the day for the Coalition by failing to comprehend the government’s super policy on 3AW. Turnbull later reasoned that superannuation could only be understood by people with brains the size of a planet and then proceeded to explain the policy, neatly underscoring his point.
Opposition leader Bill Shorten and Chloe Shorten leave a campaign event at Coorparoo football club in the electorate of Griffith this afternoon, Tuesday 31st May 2016.
Opposition leader Bill Shorten and Chloe Shorten leave a campaign event at Coorparoo football club in the electorate of Griffith this afternoon, Tuesday 31st May 2016. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian
  • Bill Shorten borrowed some government money to fund tourism initiatives in the north of the country before flying south to Brisbane to commune with shoppers in the electorate of Bonner, flanked by wife Chloe, who was presented with a large bunch of roses, a gesture she characterised as embarrassing. Later there was some kick to kick in the electorate of Griffith. Yes that was just Mike Bowers and Terri Butler, sure, but we all wish we were there, racing around the oval, laughing like there is no tomorrow.
The member for Griffith Terri Butler plays around after Opposition leader Bill Shorten left a campaign event at Coorparoo football club in the electorate of Griffith this afternoon, Tuesday 31st May 2016.
The member for Griffith Terri Butler plays around after Opposition leader Bill Shorten left a campaign event at Coorparoo football club in the electorate of Griffith this afternoon, Tuesday 31st May 2016. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Except of course, there is tomorrow, so we’ll stow the gay abandon for another day. Still a long way until the finish line. Have a lovely evening. We’ll do it all again in the morning.

Adelaide-based journalist Eugene Boisvert has reached out via the twits this afternoon picking up on my ground game post from earlier on – the one where I was pondering the union campaign apparatus in marginal seats. He’s sent me a story he covered from the marginal electorate of Hindmarsh about the Gonski schools funding. Hindmarsh is the government’s most marginal seat in SA.

Labor’s candidate in the seat, Steve Georganas, has been working the Gonski issue heavily it would seem. The piece from Hindmarsh references the fact Georganas held a forum on needs based funding earlier in the year which was attended by most local school principals.

AEU volunteers have been door-knocking local residents. In a recent Plympton Primary School newsletter, principal Sallyann Geddes asked parents to inquire about Gonski funding when [Matt Williams, the Liberal member] visited the school in March. “This funding is a landmark initiative to fulfil the vision of a fair go where all students will have access to educational resources they need to reach their full potential,” Ms Geddes wrote. “This funding is at risk of being cut at the next election.”

Exactly what I’m talking about, so thanks to Eugene. If folks have other examples they can share, let me know. I’d be very interested.

This is not in the least bit terrifying.

Doorknocking in paradise.

Connie prevails, probs

To news from Sydney, the Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells is expected to prevail this evening at a NSW state executive meeting over Hollie Hughes in a political wrestling match for NSW coalition senate ticket.

The Assistant Minister for Multicultural Affairs Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells in her office in Parliament House on Tuesday 1st December 2015.
The Assistant Minister for Multicultural Affairs Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells in her office in Parliament House on Tuesday 1st December 2015. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

The argument was over the number four spot on the senate ticket. Hughes as Liberal country vice president had won the preselection earlier in the year when a half senate election was expected. She relinquished her position for Fierravanti-Wells on the grounds she was a minister. But the double dissolution complicated matters by placing the full Coalition complement on the ticket. This left Hughes, supported by the soft right faction (Alex Hawke) in the unwinnable spot of number six. A factional stand off was in the offing, with numbers of people threatening all sorts of mayhem. Malcolm Turnbull made it clear - by osmosis - that he wanted his ministers respected. But I’m told it has now been resolved in favour of Connie with a little caveat that not all factional players are accepting the outcome - 90 minutes before the 6pm meeting. A little hope has been offered to those in spots 6,7 and 8. That is, with the new senate voting system, you never know your luck in the big city. And if you believe that....

With that fine print in mind, the most likely outcome is:

1. Defence minister Marise Payne 2. Cabinet secretary Arthur Sinodinos 3. Nationals deputy leader Fiona Nash 4. Concetta Fierravanti-Wells 5. Nationals senator John Williams 6. Liberal country vice president Hollie Hughes 7. Retired general Jim Molan 8. Strathfield mayor Sang Ok

Who do you think would be more likely to stop and help if your car was stranded?

The Essential poll has the Coalition ahead of Labor on the two party preferred measure, 51% to 49%. Malcolm Turnbull has seen an improvement in his approval ratings and is still ahead as preferred prime minister, although the gap has narrowed. Forty percent (down 3%) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better prime minister and 27% (down 1%) think Bill Shorten would make the better prime minister.

But my favourite element of the survey this week is the questions about attributes of the leaders measured by our attitudes to them. The questions are broad-ranging. Survey participants believe, for example, that Bill Shorten would be more likely to stop and help if your car was stranded than Malcolm Turnbull. Shorten is also more trustworthy when it comes to tending the family pet, and he wins the contest of who is preferable to have a beer with. Anything to do with money, Turnbull wins, except a question about who would be more likely to lend you $100 if you were skint – Shorten wins that one. People would prefer to go on holidays with Turnbull, or have him round to dinner, people also suspect Turnbull is a better cook. Strictly in the go figure territory, but kind of great as Tuesday afternoon diversions go.

I know the Essential poll is around this afternoon. I’ll hunt it down and post on that next.

The Labor leader Bill Shorten is winding up his BrisVegas day with an event at Cooparoo.

Opposition leader Bill Shorten and local member Terri Butler at a campaign event at Coorparoo football club in the electorate of Griffith this afternoon, Tuesday 31st May 2016.
Opposition leader Bill Shorten and local member Terri Butler at a campaign event at Coorparoo football club in the electorate of Griffith this afternoon, Tuesday 31st May 2016. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

A tiny glimpse into the ground game

I was talking to an MP this week who was pointing me in the direction of the labour movement’s campaign apparatus in marginal seats. The feeling was the effort is very substantial. It’s one of those things that is happening out on the ground, but it hard to get visibility on it at the national level. It’s hard to get visibility even at the local level because interest groups like the ACTU have gotten much better at blending in. The ACTU is not out there advertising the community outreach, waving placards in ACTU sweat shirts, although there’s a bit of that – mainly, the foot soldiers are ordinary workers, door knocking and phone banking and organising. Nurses, community workers, teachers, factory workers.

Dave Oliver gets a question about the election campaign apparatus during this press conference. He says the architecture has been in place for the past twelve months. By any measure, this is a substantial campaign operation.

We’ve had people in marginal electorates in place since June last year right around the country. We’ve been building up local community and activist groups. We’ve been talking to other 400,000 people over the telephone, we’re talking to undecided voters. We’ve built our social media reach to over 2m and we’ve now got 20,000 people that have put their hand up acting as volunteers during this campaign.

But he says this isn’t just a campaign investment, it’s going to be a permanent part of the union movement’s activism.

But I also want to stress that this campaigning capacity, while it is ramping up during the course of this federal election – it’s something that we’ll not dismantle and we’ll continue to campaign on issues that matter most to workers and their families, particularly if this government is reelected and they’re going to come after penalty rates to start really cutting the pay even further of low paid workers, we’ll continue to use that campaigning capacity irrespective of who is in office.

Around the the Mural Hall, the ACTU is saying today’s minimum wage increase is not enough. Dave Oliver is flanked by a number of workers on the minimum wage.

Cass is a childcare worker.

Any increase is a great increase but in this day and age we just think minimum wage is a bit outdated and it needs to be rectified.

Persisting with nativism, briefly, this from the news wire service AAP, travelling with the deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce in Narrabri today.

Barnaby Joyce isn’t backing away from controversial comments linking Labor’s live export ban to a surge in asylum seeker boats. The deputy prime minister believes his comments were grounded by fact, pointing to threats by a senior Indonesian minister last year to release a “human tsunami” of asylum seekers in response to pressure from Canberra over the Bali nine executions. “People can argue with me all they want but it’s going to be really hard to argue with a senior Indonesian minister,” Mr Joyce told AAP on Tuesday. The Nationals leader said he never intended - and didn’t create - a diplomatic incident with Jakarta. But he believes there’s been an overreaction to the comments. “You can argue about the causation issue, but you can’t argue about the correlation.”

(I think a statistician would advise at this point that correlation doesn’t equal causation. But there’s probably not much point, right?)

Tony Abbott, precursor to Donald Trump

Roger Cohen, a columnist with the New York Times, has penned a column headlined “Australia Does Anxiety.” I suspect this column is slightly more about America Does Anxiety, specifically anxiety about Donald Trump in the White House, but some choice words about Tony Abbott follow.

Australia shows signs of the fundamental divide in developed societies today — between an international urban elite of progressive social values and angry nativists suspicious of the outsider, blindsided by globalization, wary of change, and unsure of their children’s future.

Indeed, [Tony] Abbott, a loudmouth with a loony streak, was in some ways a precursor of Donald Trump. His slogans had three words — “Stop the boats” (immigrants), “Ax the tax” (climate change). He also made a speech in front of a sign, referring to then-prime minister Julia Gillard, that said “Ditch the witch” (misogyny). He crashed and burned in a gale of gaffes — bringing back knighthoods and bestowing one on Prince Philip of Britain was an example — but only after he had ranted his way to the top job. This precedent is troubling. Trump has gotten three-word slogans down to two-word epithets — “Little Marco,” “Lyin’ Ted,” “Crooked Hillary” and so on — and he has raised Abbott several notches on the mob-mobilizing meanness front.

On the nativists versus global progressives political realignment in the US, there’s a terrific Politico piece that I’ve already shared on my Facebook page which is very much worth your time.

If you’ve been with us all day you’ll recall the Labor man David Feeney courted controversy once again by posting a picture on social media about a grant to a local school that is currently under investigation Victorian Registration and Qualifications Authority. The Batman MP boasted on Twitter of the “wonderful school community” at the Maharishi school in Reservoir in Melbourne’s north, after the school secured $500,000 through the federal government’s Department of Education capital grants program.

It was worth trying to establish what had occurred. A spokeswoman for Feeney told us: “He was [visiting the school] as a local member.”

“He was invited,” she said. “He was there in his capacity as a local member alongside Greens and government representatives doing his job as a local MP. I’ve seen the comments about the school being under investigation. He was just there in his capacity as a local member.”

Guardian Australia has contacted the Coalition to ask why funding was awarded to the school given the investigation.

The Greens candidate Alex Bhathal and Nationals senator for Victoria, Bridget McKenzie, were also at the ceremony at the school on Monday.

A spokesman for Bhathal said he understood her invitation was “a last-minute one” but that he would have to investigate further as to why she had attended and whether she knew about the controversy surrounding the school.

McKenzie’s office has been contacted for comment.

Bless Mike Bowers. I confess we might have been running a book on what Chloe Shorten said to her husband when he presented her with a bunch of roses in Brisbane earlier today. When you start to think about it you can have enormous fun with the possibilities. But let the record show the response was: “That’s so embarrassing.”

Minimum wage up $15.80

While Murph has been agonising over WestConnex the Fair Work Commission has lifted the minimum wage by $15.80 a week, from $656.90 to $672.70. That’s an increase of 2.4%, which is above the current rate of inflation of 1.3% (and the underlying rate of 1.7%). The decision affects 1.8m workers. The commission said historically low inflation and wage growth contributed to its decision to lift the wage by slightly less than it did last year. The decision falls bang in the middle of the election campaign, where the Greens have been trying to wedge Labor over the way in which the minimum wage is calculated.

Updated

Albanese and WestConnex, a torturous tale

Readers with me yesterday will know I spent some time on the Labor man Anthony Albanese and the saga of WestConnex. Let me recap that in the event you weren’t with me yesterday.

There’s been a number of pincer movements in evidence during this campaign where Labor has been squeezed by the Greens on one side and the government on the other. WestConnex is yet another example.

The project is deeply unpopular in Albo territory so the member for Grayndler has been attempting to walk a line where he criticises the project, funds the project, and says no more money will be coming for the project. If this sounds hard it is, and only a politician as fleet footed as Albanese could pull this off without looking like a complete goose.

There are a lot of red herrings with this issue so best we keep our focus laser like on the moving parts that matter. Albanese has not said at any point that he will rescind the contracts for WestConnex but he has tried to look bolshie by saying if Labor wins the election, there will not be any money for the project.

He can say this safe in the knowledge that the Coalition has already committed the bulk of the money for WestConnex already. Just think of the locution this way. Albanese: There will be no money from me* (*Because the money is already out the door and I have no intention of rescinding contracts.) If you think of it like that, a statement with a silent footnote, then it sort of makes sense.

One question I had yesterday after working through the various components of this mildly ridiculous story was about an amount of $300m. Current indications suggest that money isn’t due to move from Canberra to Sydney until after the election on 2 July, so based on Albanese’s tortured formulation, it is possible that he could withhold that money. I couldn’t get a straight answer on that yesterday.

But it looks like WestConnex will get all the money, including the $300m, based on what Albanese told broadcaster Alan Jones earlier today. I’ll post the entire exchange just so you can see I’m not making up the analysis I’ve just given you.

Q: Tanya Plibersek on WestConnex. You said a week ago you would stop any further funding for the WestConnex motorway if your party was elected. Your leader rang you yesterday, did he? Did he give you a clip over the ear?

Anthony Albanese:

No, not at all.

Q: Did he ring you?

Anthony Albanese:

I rang him, actually, to brief him on what was in the papers. We are of exactly the same view. What’s extraordinary is that the Daily Telegraph reported that a week ago. A week ago they rang up and they reported that I said ‘the federal government has already paid $1.2 billion of its promised $1.5bn and the paperwork for a further $2bn loan is already signed off. Mr Albanese conceded yesterday that WestConnex would proceed. Labor cannot halt the project even if it wins on July 2’. That’s what I said at a public meeting of 600 people.

Q: You’ve said, ‘If I’m the transport minister there will not be one dollar from the federal Labor government for this WestConnex project’.

Anthony Albanese:

That’s correct. And Bill Shorten has said the same. And when we go out there in terms of ...

Q: ‘There will not be one dollar from the federal Labor government for this WestConnex project.’ That’s correct?

Anthony Albanese:

That’s correct. But what we don’t do is rip up contracts or break agreements that are done. It’s too late to do that. The $2bn loan was finalised last year. I stood up at that public meeting and said that, and of the $1.5bn in grant money, it’s already gone out the door, $1.2 billion. There’s $300m remaining. That will be paid in 2016. But my criticism has been that they have got the planning of this project wrong. What you’ve had is the funding go out and then the planning underway. Yesterday, the Heraldreported again that they don’t know where this road is coming up - in Rozelle, in Broadway, it’s extraordinary that a project where you don’t know where the route is yet has yet to be finalised is under construction.

Q: What did you mean though at the Balmain Town Hall on May 19 when you said ‘If I am the transport minister there will not be one dollar from the Federal Labor government for this project.’ What did you mean by that?

Anthony Albanese:

Just that. Federal Labor, we’re putting out our commitments for infrastructure during this campaign. We are not committing to any further funding for the WestConnex project. We’ve got our priorities. Our priorities included the $175m that we announced for Port Botany Rail Freight.

Updated

Sky News has just broadcast an exchange between Bill Shorten and a fruit and veggie shop owner in Brisbane during the street walk. Shorten told the shop owner Labor will make sure the GST doesn’t go up to 15%. The shop owner told the Labor leader he thought it should be 20%. After absorbing that, Shorten noted he didn’t think the customers would love that.

Campaign Tuesday, shortly after lunchtime

Right, let’s do this. Busy morning, let’s take note of the key developments.

Shadow Minister for employment Brendan O’Connor has coffee this morning in Cairns, Tuesday 31st May 2016.
Shadow Minister for employment Brendan O’Connor has coffee this morning in Cairns, Tuesday 31st May 2016. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian
  • Malcolm Turnbull has toured a research facility in Sydney to promise funding for children’s cancer research, and used that opportunity to advance the argument that funding for cancer research requires strong budgetary management and Bill Shorten is vehemently anti-business and he, Turnbull, is the man with the plan.
  • Sadly for the prime minister, the foreign minister and deputy Liberal leader, Julie Bishop, was completely unable to explain the superannuation dimension of the government’s plan during a radio interview with Neil Mitchell in Melbourne this morning. Bishop staggered through an unrelenting Mitchell onslaught (*well, Neil, this is obviously a gotcha moment*) in the most feeble media performance of the campaign since the Labor man David Feeney’s outing on Sky News last week.
  • Perplexingly, the treasurer, Scott Morrison also appeared to signal in a media interview with the West Australian that the government might recalibrate the plan in the event the plan didn’t work.
  • Apart from that, Labor leader Bill Shorten rebadged a segment of the Coalition’s Northern Australia Development Fund for tourism projects in Cairns and beyond. He said Labor would keep the top marginal tax rate where it currently is for at least the next ten years because governing is about choices and Labor has made the choice that it will use the revenue to fund health and education. He’d rather give a woman with breast cancer a mammogram than give a worker on $1m a tax cut.
  • Shorten is now on the move in Brisbane in the seat of Bonner, currently Liberal-held on a margin of just over 3%.
Opposition leader Bill Shorten gives Chloe Shorten a bunch of orange roses during a street walk at Westfield Carindale in Brisbane which falls within the Federal electorate of Bonner this afternoon, Tuesday 31st May 2016.
Opposition leader Bill Shorten gives Chloe Shorten a bunch of orange roses during a street walk at Westfield Carindale in Brisbane which falls within the Federal electorate of Bonner this afternoon, Tuesday 31st May 2016. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Wouldn’t have gone orange myself, but everyone’s a critic.

Updated

.. After I show you vision of the Labor leader Bill Shorten buying flowers for wife Chloe during the afternoon street walk, which is underway in Brisbane now.

Time to take stock, I’ll do that next.

Dave Oliver sums up by extending the hand of peace to the ACCI.

I’ll leave here with an undertaking to say that we want to work with you, as I do with the AIG and with the BCA as long as we have a sensible high road discussion about investment in infrastructure, education and skills and jobs and not just pull out the union bashing card or go about attacking penalty rates and long service leave and the low road, James – let’s keep it out of the weeds.

James Pearson reciprocates with the politeness, but says his career has taught him to play close attention to the fine print.

One of the things that I’ve learnt in over 30 years of working in government and business is that the devil in the detail and that’s why I won’t apologise for talking about details when we need to actually get a to the nub of the problem because that is when you can can work out what the problem is, and then what the appropriate solution will be.

James Pearson has evidently confessed to being a trade union member in the past at some point in today’s debate. Was it value for money, Sabra Lane from the ABC’s 730 Report, wonders?

Pearson says that was back in the 1980’s, and unions were different in the 1980’s.

I wouldn’t have joined a union if a royal commission had found 79 recommendations to demand and drive greater transparency, greater accountability to ensure that unions were not motivated overwhelmingly by vested self-interest.

I think unions then were different organisations, I’m not suggesting for a moment that someone with Dave’s character is part of that, but at the end of the day, I think the entire union movement needs to take a good hard look at itself.

Into company tax cuts now.

Q: If we’re going to lose the best part of $50bn on a policy proposal the case for it should be pretty strong, I’ve got to say I’ve struggled to find any evidence for the benefit of a company tax cut and this question is primarily for you Mr Pearson: the UK and Canada have both cut company taxes over the last decade. Both have had lower economic growth, lower productivity growth and lower wages growth, than Australia. We know that there’s modelling to say that company tax cuts will good but Mr Pearson is there real world evidence of the benefits of this policy proposal which is going to be extraordinarily expensive for taxpayers over the next ten years?

James Pearson has no evidence, but he thinks a business tax cut is a very good idea. Dave Oliver says the ACTU’s position is it would be fantastic if companies paid what they’re supposed to pay in the first place before trying to give them a tax cut.

Dave Oliver:

Despite what people are suggesting that we are a high taxing nation, we’re not, our company tax rate is already low.

We are lower than the US. Any kind of corporate tax cut is not going to benefit the economy.

To the press club now. Today the ACTU boss Dave Oliver is debating the head of the business chamber, James Pearson, about labour market regulation.

This debate is ahead of today’s minimum wage decision which is expected in the early afternoon.

Right now the sparring concerns penalty rates on the weekend.

James Pearson:

The reason why Australian employers are advocating for the alignment, streamlining of penalty rates across the weekend because we know that more businesses will be able to open, more businesses will be able to do business which means more businesses will be able to employ more Australians. If you’re an incoming government and you were told that you had this mighty economic lever called business which is employing over three-quarters of your population, well you’d want to pull it and pull it hard wouldn’t you?

Dave Oliver thanks Pearson for the economics lesson. But he says realigning penalty rates is a wage cut, pure and simple.

First, though, we need a glimpse of Malcolm Turnbull’s friend Lulu.

Malcolm Turnbull is hugged by six-year-old cancer patient Lulu Demetriou during his visit to the Lowy Cancer Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Randwick, Sydney, on Tuesday.
Malcolm Turnbull is hugged by six-year-old cancer patient Lulu Demetriou during his visit to the Lowy Cancer Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Randwick, Sydney, on Tuesday. Photograph: Tracey Nearmy/AAP
Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is given a rainbow drawing by 6-year-old cancer patient Lulu Demetriou (centre), which she held right up to his face as he met with her and fellow patient 7-year-old Georgia Burgess (right), during his visit to the Lowy Cancer Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Randwick, Sydney, Tuesday, May, 31, 2016.
Lulu, takes a shine to the prime minister giving him rainbow and heart drawings which he says he will put in his office. Photograph: Tracey Nearmy/AAP
Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is given a rainbow drawing by 6-year-old cancer patient Lulu Demetriou (centre), which she held right up to his face as he met with her and fellow patient 7-year-old Georgia Burgess (right), during his visit to the Lowy Cancer Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Randwick, Sydney, Tuesday, May, 31, 2016.
Malcolm Turnbull gets a rainbow drawing for his office. Photograph: Tracey Nearmy/AAP

The AAP reporter at the event tells me Lulu Demetriou, aged six, is suffering from neuroblastoma. She was diagnosed at eight months old; had tumour in her abdomen and extensive cancer in bones and bone marrow. She has undergone chemotherapy, surgery, transplant, radiation and an immunotherapy trial but has not responded to any conventional treatments. She continues to live with cancer and her prognosis is still very uncertain.

Updated

Just an aside, the campaign is finally hitting campaign stride. We thought that would happen this week and sure enough … acceleration.

Right now, there’s an industrial relations policy debate at the National Press Club, so I’ll tune in there before I post a summary of the events of the morning.

Updated

The final question is a high lob on whether it is fair for Labor to keep the top marginal tax rate where it is for the next decade.

Malcolm Turnbull sets up another backhander on Bill Shorten being aggressively anti-business. He says the critical thing is to strike a balance between competing interests.

Malcolm Turnbull:

You’ve got to strike a balance, so that you grow the pie and then make sure that everyone gets a fair share of it. [You’ve got to be careful] that you don’t end up shrinking the whole pie.

The story of successful governments and I count our government, our Coalition government as a successful one in this regard, is that you’ve got to grow the economy because that then gives you the capacity to provide the incentives to provide the opportunities and you then can raise the taxes to pay for the children’s cancer institute’s zero childhood cancers program.

(The PM better hope tomorrow’s GDP is positive, otherwise I can sense an attack ad coming on.)

Malcolm Turnbull gets a question about the national accounts, which turns into Bill Shorten being anti-business.

He’s then asked why he is defending Julie Bishop but blasted the Labor man David Feeney the other week for not knowing Labor’s policies on various things. The prime minister says again that super is very complex area “but I’d say this to you - it’s not very complex to know whether you own a $2.3m negatively geared house. Most people can work that out. And Mr Feeney knew that, just that he didn’t want to tell anyone about it.”

Super .. notoriously complicated ..

The prime minister is asked whether it is acceptable that his deputy, Julie Bishop, can’t explain the super changes. Malcolm Turnbull says super is a notoriously complicated area. He then goes on to explain the transition to retirement issue that Bishop didn’t know about this morning. #NotoriouslyComplicated

He’s asked how he can believe in the climate science when the CSIRO is exiting climate science? Malcolm Turnbull says the CSIRO sets its own priorities.

Q: Would you agree that Pauline Hanson is a known quantity in Australian politics and can you rule out negotiate or horse trading with her as PM?

Malcolm Turnbull:

Pauline Hanson has always been ... not a welcome presence in the Australian political scene, remember she was chucked out of the Liberal party.

(Not exactly a straight answer, that.)

Malcolm Turnbull addresses reporters

Malcolm Turnbull is out of the event now and is speaking to reporters in Sydney. He says spending on cancer research can’t happen without strong budget management. That’s why he’s seeking a mandate for re-election: to deliver the plan so that things like medical research can be prioritised.

He’s asked about how the investment today will help cancer research. Turnbull says the money will help more targeted therapies, because chemo is devastating for little bodies.

Q: Given the cut and thrust of politics has been pretty brutal, what would it mean to you to be able to take time away and how did these kids affect you personally?

Malcolm Turnbull:

This is a pretty raw place emotionally. Lucy and I have been associated with supporting the children’s hospital for many years ... This is every parent’s nightmare – to have a sick child ... Some of them have very low survival rate, we know that and this is heartbreaking stuff so this is really - there is no greater work being done ... than what’s being done here.

What could be more important than aiming to have zero childhood cancers?

'I'll have a whole gallery, a Lulu gallery'

Back to the pool report out of the cancer institute at UNSW from the AAP reporter at the prime minister’s event.

Belinda Nerhab:

Malcolm Turnbull met with seven-year-old Georgia Burgess, who was diagnosed with cancer at three years old, and six-year-old Lulu Demetriou who was diagnosed with cancer when she was just eight-months old. Turnbull sat down to colour in with the girls, colouring in a love heart with magic markers that change colours. Lulu took a liking to him, telling him what colours to use but got annoyed when he chose the same colour twice. “Pink! You did this colour.” “Gosh Lulu you have obviously done this before,” Turnbull said. He kept trying to say goodbye but Lulu wouldn’t let him go until he tried every colour. When he finally got up, she gave him a huge hug and Turnbull knelt down to hug her back. “You’re a big hugger,” he said. “She’s really taken a liking to you,” her mother Josi said. “It’s mutual,” he said. She then presented him with him one picture after another. “That’s enough,” Josi said. “I’ll treasure that,” he said. “I’ll put that in my office. I’ll have a whole gallery, a Lulu gallery.”

Updated

Lots of questions from the local media about McCarthy’s record in the NT, whether she’s enrolled to vote in the NT (no, she’s been Sydney based in recent times, looking after an ailing father), has she resigned from SBS? (yes, she’s got her own business), who urged her to run (members of the ALP).

Racism is not on and we have to stamp it out straight away

Up north in the territory, Labor candidate for the Senate Malarndirri McCarthy is speaking to reporters about taking over from Nova Peris.

Q: Considering the racist vitriol that was directed towards Nova Peris, is this thing that you think you have to now prepare for?

Malarndirri McCarthy:

Absolutely. Even in my time as a Northern Territory Cabinet Minister, and as the member for Arnhem, I did endure in that time, unfair, unnecessary accusations being a woman, a black woman, and never ever really looked at in terms of my qualification and the skills that I brought – so I’ve experienced some of that, not to the depth that Nova has and I’m conscious that stepping on the national scene that obviously it is out there.

Racism is just not on and we have to stamp it out straight away.

The foreign minister Julie Bishop is campaigning with Liberal candidate Tim Wilson, the former freedom commissioner who is hoping to win Andrew Robb’s old seat of Goldstein. Reporters are on the scene.

Wilson is asked whether voters in Goldstein have raised the budget superannuation changes. He looks momentarily .. well, something. Bishop prompts him. “No-one has raised it today,” she says.

Tim Wilson:

What we’ve heard down hereon Hampden street is how much people are looking forward to the Coalition government that puts their interests first.

Q: Has the government underestimated the number of people affected by the government’s changes to the transition to retirement scheme?

Julie Bishop, only very slightly through gritted teeth:

No it has not. We have said from the outset that 96% of superannuants will be better off or not affected and that remains the case.

Bishop is asked whether the Victorian Liberal party should be doing a preference deal with the Greens as the government constantly speaks about the risks of the Green/Labor minority government. The foreign minister says she won’t be giving advice to the Victorian branch of the party.

Wilson is asked about the Institute of Public Affairs’ criticism of the Coalition’s super changes. Wilson used to work at the IPA. The candidate steps around that delicately. He says the IPA isn’t talking about retrospectivity, “they’re focusing on how to make sure there a fair level of tax on future income.”

(Not sure that’s right actually, but I need to thunder on for now.)

Turnbull has this morning toured the Children’s Cancer Institute at the University of New South Wales, attached to the Sydney Children’s Hospital. There must be a pool arrangement in place, so the prime minister’s office has distributed a pool report which I will now share with you. Here goes.

The prime minister was shown where 25,000 cancer samples were stored for genetic analysis, enabling doctors to better target a child’s treatment.

Malcolm Turnbull:

This is 21st century medicine. As you say you’re looking for the Achilles heel to better target that cancer ... As Luce and I know from our work with the hospital, with you at the (Sydney) Children’s Hospital, you deal with emotions in the raw, professor. You really do. You’re dealing at the frontier of science and at the frontier of emotion as well.

Malcolm Turnbull chokes up on the hustings in Sydney

Childhood cancer is obviously a nightmare subject. The prime minister is addressing medical researchers about his campaign initiative today, which is about cancer research. I presume from the context that “little Lulu” is a child who has recovered from cancer or is having treatment. Malcolm Turnbull struggles when he references her.

Little Lulu, there with all of her vitality, has a whole life ahead of her. She has given me some of her paintings. I know that with the care she has here, she will grow up to be a great painter. Not just with textas and paper but she will do great things and all of these children will.

Childhood cancer. Every parent’s worst nightmare. Can’t even think about it.

Updated

Recalibration?

Here’s that story from the West, from economics editor Shane Wright. Shane says Scott Morrison conceded (during an interview anticipating tomorrow’s GDP numbers) if there continued to be sluggishness across the economy then the government would look to “recalibrate” its policy mix. It’s not clear what this means. If the plan doesn’t work, try a new one?

Chris Bowen:

We have seen today an extraordinary development, the treasurer telling a newspaper, the West Australian, if it won’t work, they will “recalibrate it” after the election. This is the centrepiece of their election policy. We’re told this is a plan for jobs and growth and Scott Morrison says if it doesn’t work, we will change it. If you want to get a mandate to do something, if he is going to change it, tell the Australian people what it is.

Labor won’t recalibrate our plans for the schools, or the NBN or infrastructure which is our plan for jobs and growth. We won’t recalibrate our plans for tourism in northern Australia, which Bill Shorten has announced today.

Updated

Bowen also refers to a story in the West Australian this morning in which Scott Morrison is (allegedly) signalling a change in direction if the government’s economic plan doesn’t deliver dividends. I haven’t seen that story, I’ll chase it up.

The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, is speaking to reporters in Sydney now. He says the government is clearly worried about tomorrow’s economic growth figures, because the treasurer, Scott Morrison, is blame shifting in advance.

Chris Bowen:

Tomorrow will be the final report card on the Liberals’ presiding over Australia’s economic growth. I will respond accordingly tomorrow but it goes to show you how desperate Scott Morrison is that he is out there blaming everybody else, not prepared to take responsibility. Joe Hockey is not the treasurer, I am not, Scott Morrison is. Tomorrow he will have to account for his government’s track record.

Updated

Of course I can't say I would never run ...

Back at the scene of the 3AW minor collision, Julie Bishop was also asked about leadership.

Julie Bishop:

Of course I can’t say I would never [run for the leadership] if there was a circumstance, but I certainly don’t see one.

I don’t envisage that. I am very, very happy being the foreign minister. I’ve been deputy to a number of leaders and I think I play a positive role in that regard and most certainly my colleagues appreciate me being the deputy of the party.

Updated

Julie Bishop has moved on to happier tasks.

Q: Are you just as passionate about saving Arrium jobs as you are about saving jobs in the motor trade industry?

Scott Morrison:

This goes right across the economy, including in steel jobs and in the jobs that will come from ensuring that we go ahead with the defence procurements here, not just the submarines but with frigates and all the programs which involve steel, Arrium. The bringing forward of $80m worth of expenditure on steel purchases with Arrium is something the government has done. We will continue to work constructively with the state government here. We won’t play politics with this issue in an election campaign. It is too important. That is why we are working constructively with KordaMentha as well as the state government to ensure we stay on the right plan to ensure this business has a future. Arrium has a future.

Q: You will stump up $100m?

Scott Morrison:

We will continue to work with the state government and the administrator – there are many processes still to follow – but the goal is to ensure this is a viable business. When you bring $80m forward in steel purchases to ensure a real business can produce a real outcome, that is one of the best things you can do.

Updated

This press conference is to launch a website associated with the government’s budget program about young interns. The employment minister, Michaelia Cash, says employers are now free to take the PATH pledge, which sounds a bit like AA, but Cash and Morrison seem delighted by the locution. Reporters, less delighted.

Q: With the young people here who are already employed as apprentices and trainees ...

Scott Morrison:

That is great.

Q: Will they now have to go to a lower wage for three months –

Scott Morrison:

No. That is one of Labor’s lies and that is one of the unions lies.

Q: How do you stop that?

Scott Morrison:

They already have their employment arrangements. This is for new people coming on for a 12-week work experience. It is not replacing someone in a real job.

Updated

A complete coincidence of course that the treasurer Scott Morrison is now holding a press conference at a collision repairs business in Adelaide.

Julie Bishop struggles to explain the Coalition's super changes

Earlier today I mentioned the foreign minister Julie Bishop was obviously getting the rounds of the kitchen on the Neil Mitchell program in Melbourne on superannuation. I think the polite term for this is a carve up. Here’s an excerpt.

Q: Superannuation, a contentious issue. I’m told by local members, even in blue ribbon seats, they’re getting a hell of a reaction from their electorate. Are you?

Julie Bishop:

I’ve had questions asked and I’ve explained what we’re doing.

Q: It’s more than that though, they’re furious.

Julie Bishop:

No, they understand that we needed to make the superannuation system sustainable. It has to have integrity in it, it is not a tax minimisation vehicle, it is not an estate planning vehicle. It is for retirement income. We’ve now legislated an objective, government can be held to that objective. We are ensuring that lower income people are better off, in fact 96% of people are either better off or not affected by the changes.

Q: But let’s be honest with people, it’s not just the top 4% is it?

Julie Bishop:

Well that’s my understanding.

Q: Well, that’s wrong. What do you think about transition to retirement income?

What we are seeking to do is ensure that there is integrity in the system. It’s not retrospective, we are talking about the future tax rate on retirement income.

Q: What about transition to retirement, let’s focus on that?
Julie Bishop:

It is still one of the most concessional and generous schemes around.

Q: Explain the transitional scheme.

Julie Bishop:

In which… the $1.6m is a cap.

Q: No, not the $1.6m – the transitional scheme.

Julie Bishop:

I’m coming to that. The $500,000 is also a cap and that’s non concessional. We’ve also ensured that those who are on lower incomes, those who are coming in and out of the workforce like women, those ages between 65 and 75 are able to continue putting into superannuation.

Q: But I’m not asking about that, I’m asking about transition to retirement.

Julie Bishop:

Those who are now coming into the stage of wanting to start putting away for their retirement.

Q: Are you aware of the transition to retirement scheme?

Julie Bishop:

Well I’m certainly aware that we have one, yeah.

Q: How does it work?
Julie Bishop:

Well Neil, this is obviously a gotcha moment, you want me to go through… it’s not my portfolio and -

Q: No, no. This is the hole in your whole logic. You’re saying it’s only 4 per cent of tax payers. You, Josh Frydenberg, neither of you understand the Transition to Retirement. That’s clear and this is where you’re hitting average people. Not the fat cats, the average people.

Julie Bishop:

I don’t accept that that’s the case. I’ve had a briefing on this and I’m told that 96% of people are either better off or not affected.

Q: I suggest that you have a closer look at the briefing because that is clearly wrong, minister. If you don’t understand Transition to Retirement, you can’t see that. Transition to Retirement Scheme affects somewhere between 80 and 500,000 people and its putting a new tax on them. A 15% tax.

Julie Bishop:

I’ve heard Kelly O’Dwyer speak on this. She is the Assistant Treasurer. This is her portfolio and she said this is not the case.

Updated

Gangsta in Narrabri. I think we’ll take this as a comment.

John Anderson is asked given this is a $10bn project, do you think there is money in the budget for it to be realised?

John Anderson:

That’s up to the government, of course. But I just make the point again, that when you get things like this that build greater economic growth, and therefore greater taxation revenues for the government, it’s a growth strategy, that’s not bought at government expense. It contributes, once you’ve got it up and running properly, that’s what we found, a positive BCR, a cost ratio of 2.5%. That’s way in front of an awful lot of infrastructure done by governments. In a sense, it’s not a question of it costing the government money, it’s a question of it returning to the government and the taxpayers. This is a growth strategy.

Out in the ether, the shadow agriculture minister Joel Fitzgibbon is trolling the Nationals.

The deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce is campaigning in Narrabri today with the former Nationals leader John Anderson. Today’s focal point on the wombat trail is inland rail.

Q: When you think the first tracks will be laid?

Barnaby Joyce:

The first tracks are already being laid. The first tracks in the upgrade of rail are already happening as we roll that forward from Melbourne up to Parkes. But now we go through the purchase and the design, we’re doing the geotech work now and the design to get the railway line from Coonamble across to Narrabri, from Moree out to Toowoomba. That purchase can basically happen as soon as the ARTC want it. The money is there, the investment is happening right now, the planning work is happening right now. The geotech is happening right now and the money is available so that they can start the next step, which is the purchase of extra corridor for the train.

Evidence you have been covering politics too long: it’s funny to see John Anderson and Barnaby Joyce out on the hustings together. When Joyce first arrived in Canberra, and was intent on being ‘Barnaby, the out of control new Senator from Queensland who would vote whatever way he felt like it’, he used to drive John Anderson round the twist. We are talking flinch at the sound of his name round the twist. Granted that was many many years ago now. Back in the Jurassic period.

Back to David Feeney, The Age reported in April that the Victorian Registration and Qualifications Authority was investigating the Maharishi school in Reservoir after receiving a series of complaints. “Some concerned parents claimed the school repressed physical activity such as soccer, basketball and “tiggy” because it was not peaceful enough, according to a confidential report.”

For people who only run in emergencies, this is positively terrifying.

The return of David Feeney ..

Labor man David Feeney has been something of a campaign blunderbuss for Labor. I note he’s popped up on the twitters over the past 24 hours keeping things local. But he’s getting some heat there as well.

Updated

Scott Morrison is hammering the message about Labor depriving family businesses of tax cuts, before noting, heroically ..

Our evidence is our plan.

I mentioned this on the live blog yesterday: the prime minister changed his language about the corporate tax cuts quite markedly during the debate at the National Press Club on Sunday night to present them as small business tax cuts, not big business tax cuts. The only reasonable conclusion to be drawn from this is voters must think corporate tax cuts for big companies stink. If voters aren’t buying the government’s core economic message, that does spell trouble, given that’s the core of the campaign.

Morrison says in this interview the government is taxing big businesses more through a crackdown on multinational tax avoidance so that he can give the small fry a tax cut.

Byner asks Scott Morrison whether he is worried about tomorrow’s national accounts figures? Morrison is cracking hardy. “Let’s see what they say. What we see is our economy continuing to grow in a very tough environment,” he says. You hear the segue right? Now is not the time to let those fiscal vandals back into government.

Byner is clearly worried about the deficit. What are you doing about it, he wonders? Scott Morrison says the government is reducing expenditure.

Not concerned about the internal contradiction inherent in the line of questioning, Byner then notes voters are worried about the government’s super changes (which raise revenue) and about Medicare funding. Scott Morrison sounds mildly frustrated. The Coalition is reducing the deficit by not spending more than it saves, he says.

That’s how we are achieving it.

The treasurer Scott Morrison is on Adelaide radio at the moment declaring that Labor is stopping tax cuts for small family businesses. Host Leon Byner asks his guest where’s the evidence that business will create jobs when they get a tax cut?

Scott Morrison:

Treasury analysis.

... there’s no dispute about the evidence.

Leon Byner:

I don’t know about that.

Opposition leader Bill Shorten has coffee this morning in Cairns, Tuesday 31st May 2016.
Opposition leader Bill Shorten has coffee this morning in Cairns, Tuesday 31st May 2016. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

I didn’t hear this interview but I’ll chase the audio when time permits.

Just some context on the *wither the wealthy* questions at that Cairns press conference – Phil Coorey reports this morning that Labor has confirmed it will keep the budget repair levy for at least 10 years. The levy adds two percentage points to the top marginal tax rate applying to incomes over $180,000.

Updated

A restorative caffeinated beverage is just the ticket after a throat clearing press conference.

Q: Is your proposed [tourism] allocation going to come at the expense of vital infrastructure projects that farmers say are necessary for the region?

Bill Shorten:

Not at all. We’ll have more to say about the Northern Australian Infrastructure Fund. But let’s tell it straight here. The government announced, in fact as with most of Mr Turnbull’s policy, it was announced with Mr Abbott two years ago. At the time we said yep, tick, and we voted for the legislation, tick. In the last two years they’ve done nothing and that’s the real challenge in this election, isn’t it?

So we will keep investing in road infrastructure here. Of course we will. There will still be money available for other projects but I reckon tourism is a jobs generator. This is the sort of thing that we need to get Australia going again.

Q: Do you think it’s proper that some MPs are being paid $86 a day to travel from their Canberra accommodation to Parliament House and are you yourself claiming this allowance?

Bill Shorten:

I’m not aware of what you’re talking about, to be honest.

Q: Are you not punishing high-income earners by making them pay half of their wage in tax? You’re not using them as your cash cow?

Bill Shorten:

To be fair, the higher deficit levy was a Liberal idea.

Q: You’re extending it for 10 years.

Bill Shorten:

Let’s be clear. If you want to look at who the parents of higher deficit levy was, it’s Joe Hockey and Malcolm Turnbull. What I get, though, is hard decisions have to be made. And what I won’t do to reward someone on $1m and punish someone who needs a mammogram because they’re fighting breast cancer.

Updated

Then corporate tax and small business.

Q: You’re also opposing the redefinition of a small business from $2m to $10m for turnover. How can you equate a local builder who might have $4m of turnover with a bank or a foreign shareholder and is there perhaps room for maybe some compromise there, you might support raising that to maybe $5m or something?

Shorten says, with the corporate tax cuts, Turnbull is “making a promise which will permanently damage the underlying basis of our budget for the long term”.

He gets a second question on this issue. He doesn’t rule out compromise but he says there a tough budgetary conditions and political parties have to make choices, and Labor has made its choices.

Updated

Bill Shorten is asked about keeping the top marginal tax rate at 49 cents in the dollar. Shorten says in tough budgetary times, political parties have to make decisions and Labor chooses to invest in health rather than give a tax cut to high-income earners.

He’s then asked whether he’s confident Labor can pick up twelve seats in this context. He says he’s positive Labor has the best plan for the country.

He’s pressed again on tax cuts.

Bill Shorten:

It would be lovely to reduce marginal rates of taxation but you can on make these promises when you can afford to pay it. I would love to be in a position where I could tell every Australian everything they want to hear. But that’s not the sort of leadership you had get from me. I will tell it straight. And I’m saying it straight right now. It’s a bad idea to give people on a million dollars a $17,000 tax cut when you’re cutting family payments for people on $60,000 a year.

Updated

Q: Why is a Melbourne boy like you launching his election campaign in Western Sydney?

(Labor confirmed last yesterday the campaign launch will be in Penrith next month).

Bill Shorten:

Because Western Sydney in many ways is the heart of Australia. It’s a community of 2m people. It’s diverse. There are many great cities in Western Sydney. It’s not just one homogeneous city. From Campbelltown to Liverpool right through to Bankstown, right through to Parramatta, it’s a marvellous part of Australia. If you took Western Sydney all on its own and just looked at its economic activity and its population, it would be the third-largest city in Australia. The other thing is that Labor’s values speak to the values of people in Western Sydney. I’ve travelled extensively through my time in Western Sydney. They’re interested in good schools for their kids. They want a Medicare system where it’s your Medicare card not your credit card which determines the level of health care you get in Australia. They want to see real jobs through infrastructure. Labor and Western Sydney share common values. I think it’s great that on June 19th, I will be launching Labor’s campaign to be the next government of Australia in the heart of Australia, Western Sydney.

Updated

Q: The peak body for tourism operators in this region say the tax cuts are the best thing to boost employment and growth in the industry. Are they wrong?

Bill Shorten:

The numbers don’t stack up in terms of the corporate tax giveaway that Mr Turnbull’s providing.

Q: A representative from the tourism chamber is wrong then? He is saying it will benefit small businesses ... ?

Bill Shorten:

I think the idea of having a billion dollars for airports and ports, for convention centres and stadia, making sure that we can grab the events, we’re on the right track.

We’re about tourism, not just today or tomorrow. We’re about making sure that Australia has the infrastructure to grab the wave of Asian tourism.

Bill Shorten addresses reporters in Cairns

In climes slightly warmer than here, Bill Shorten is confirming Labor’s tourism announcement, which is rebadging part of the government’s Northern Australia Infrastructure Fund. Stadiums in Cairns, as far as the eye can see. Shorten says he wants northern Australia to catch the wave of tourism from Asia.

Thanks Mel, good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday, it’s lovely to be with you. As I punch my Politics Live card this morning the Labor leader Bill Shorten is warming up for a press conference and street walk in Cairns. Tourism is Labor’s focus today. Malcolm Turnbull remains in Sydney and has a cancer announcement. Out in the non-campaign world, we have a tribunal judgment on the minimum wage.

The campaign news cycle doesn’t have a particular focal point at this stage which makes today something of an open book – always the happiest of days. I’ve even had time to make myself a cup of steaming hot herbs. That’s seriously wild stuff. Imagine starting a campaign day in a zen like state? First time for everything I dare say. Perhaps it’s the weather that’s making me so chill. It’s taken forever for winter to arrive in Canberra, but it’s here now.

Winter begins

Today’s comments thread is open for your business. If the thread’s too bracing for you, Mike Bowers and I are up and about on the twits – he’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo. If you only speak Facebook you can join my daily forum here. And if you want a behind-the-scenes look at the day and the campaign as a whole, give Mike a follow on Instagram. You can find him here.

Uncurl yourself from child’s pose. Here comes Tuesday.

Over to Katharine Murphy in Canberra now.

Today, Turnbull is in Western Sydney and Brisbane, while Shorten is in Cairns campaigning in the marginal Liberal seat of Leichhardt, then he’s off to Brisbane as well.

See you tomorrow.

Updated

Tasmanian federal independent MP Andrew Wilkie has been asked by the ABC’s Fran Kelly about the prospect of a hung parliament. Is it conceivable?

Of course, no-one knows, but it is conceivable. Some people wouldn’t like it. I would remind people the power-sharing parliament [under Gillard] from 2010 to 2013 proved to be remarkably stable.

Wilkie’s support for Gillard helped her to form government in 2010. However, he withdrew that support after 18 months after a disagreement over poker-machine reform. Kelly asks Wilkie if he would be prepared to enter any deals should a hung parliament occur.

I’ve said I won’t enter into any agreement with any party after the election to help them form government. Yes, I did that in 2010 and it worked fine for 18 months. But I found in the second half of that parliament [after withdrawing support] that I still had sway, I still had influence.

When I look back at that whole three year period, I think I was equally effective without having a deal. In some ways it can make a cross bencher more effective.

Updated

Indigenous leader Pat Dodson has commented on the racist remarks left on the Facebook page of Nova Peris. He told the ABC:

It’s just vileness from people who can’t see beyond the hatred they are consumed by .

Resources minister Josh Frydenberg has criticised Labor’s plan to redirect $1bn of funding earmarked for northern Australia infrastructure to a specific fund for tourism facilities such as airports and convention centres in Queensland.
He told ABC radio on Tuesday the fund already included money for tourism infrastructure, and that Labor’s move was “pointless rebadging”.

It’s just a money reshuffle.

Thanks to those readers who pointed out I misattributed a quote from Q&A last night to Labor’s Terri Butler that was in fact said by the Liberals’ Steve Ciobo. My apologies. It was Ciobo who described the Greens Richard Di Natale as arrogant.

Ciobo also said:

I will tell you why the two majors are the two majors. It’s because we share values and we share a policy platform that most Australians identify with.

Richard, most Australians don’t identify with Greens policies. They’re not in favour of legalising drugs, they’re not in favour of opening up our borders to bring as many people as possible from overseas.

Butler added: “You were not at the debate because you are not vying to become the prime minister”.

Guardian reporter Josh Robertson has filed a recap of the episode here. He writes:

Di Natale, who was forced to defend the role of his party from both Labor and Coalition rivals, who branded him “arrogant”, linked fossil fuel donations to the two major parties to the economic woes now felt in regions like centralQueensland.

Pressed by an audience member on how the Greens would boost the economy in former mining boom towns, Di Natale jumped on an earlier answer from Coalition MP Steve Ciobo that the government was banking partly on the huge Carmichael mine.

“I tell you what we won’t be doing is opening up a new coalmine and killing the Great Barrier Reef,” Di Natale said to applause from the Brisbane audience.

“If you care about tourism you don’t open up a whopping great big coalmine and fuel catastrophic global warming.

Updated

From photographer Mike Bowers who is with the Shorten camp at the moment:

We are in Cairns this morning doing a “cafe” picture opportunity, then a doorstop, then on the plan to Brisbane for more “campaign events”. Cairns event includes a street walk.

Sounds riveting.

Updated

From AAP:

Labor admits it is facing a tough contest in South Australia, as support grows for independent senator Nick Xenophon and his running mates.
An analysis of Newspoll shows the Nick Xenophon Team has a primary vote of 22 per cent, just five points below Labor.

“There’s no point downplaying it, this is a very contested election in South Australia and so it should be,” the ALP member for Wakefield Nick Champion told ABC radio on Tuesday.

Updated

Jones is now asking about the WestConnex.

Both Albanese and Bill Shorten are saying they won’t repudiate contracts in the event they win government, so while all the money the Commonwealth has agreed contractually to pay will be paid, Labor won’t commit any further funding if elected. Albanese tells Jones:

We are not committing to any further funding for the WestConnex project and that’s correct, and Bill Shorten said the same. But what we don’t do is break contracts or rip-up agreements that are done.

My criticism has been they have the planning wrong. They’ve had the funding go out and then the planning put out. It’s extraordinary that a project that you don’t know where the route is yet, has yet to be finalised, is under construction.

Labor MP and opposition transport spokesman, Anthony Albanese, is being interviewed by Alan Jones on 2GB. Jones asks if Albanese is worried about losing his inner-Sydney seat of Grayndler.

Have you got a battle on your hands out there, Jones asks. Albanese says yes.

I have a battle from the Greens political party rather than the Liberal party. If the Liberals give the Greens preferences it will be tight. On the state figures more people voted Greens than voted Labor. It’s a real battle. But I’ve represented the seat for 20 years. I’m campaigning hard.

Updated

Croc shooting safaris should be allowed in Queensland’s far north following a suspected fatal attack, Federal MP Bob Katter says this morning:

The numbers of crocodiles have exploded. All of crocodiles’ predators have been removed. We can put nature back in balance if we have shooting safaris.”

Katter criticised comments from local member of the federal parliament Warren Entsch following the attack that: “You can’t legislate against human stupidity”.

I can’t believe that Warren is attacking the people over this. Defending crocodiles instead of people is stupid.

Coming up:

As mentioned earlier, the prime minister will pledge $20m toward combating childhood cancers in Sydney today.

According to AAP, the funding will help establish the Zero Childhood Cancer Initiative, providing personalised treatments for children with untreatable cancers:

Children diagnosed with cancer will have a tissue sample taken and analysed to determine their genetics.

The cutting edge research then determines the best treatment to improve chances of recovery and survival.

Several major hospitals and research centres will take part including Sydney’s Children’s Hospitals in Randwick and Westmead.

Mr Turnbull and Health Minister Sussan Ley said the initiative would enhance knowledge of genomic sequencing and provide faster, cheaper and more accurate diagnosis.

Each year 200 children are diagnosed with cancers that have no cure or don’t respond to conventional treatment and the initiative aims to get survival rates to 100%, they said.

The Greens want to use a royal commission to examine whether banks should be broken up to split the retail arms from their investment and financial advice arms in response to recent scandals, Gabrielle Chan reports from Canberra.

The Greens banking and finance policy also calls for increased penalties for white-collar crime, capping ATM fees and forcing banks to allow portable bank accounts which allow easy transfers, similar to taking mobile phone numbers between companies.

The Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson, a former banker, has been calling for a royal commission into the sector, which has been dogged by scandals over poor financial advice, insider trading and rigging interest rates.

After resisting a royal commission, Labor followed suit and has called for a royal commission into the banks following the scandals.

The Greens policy now goes a step further, outlining that a banking royal commission would “fully examine the problems associated with the ‘vertically integrated’ model.

“This would including looking at ‘breaking up the banks’ to separate retail banking from financial advice and investment banking,” the policy statement says.

Full story here.

The Australian Conservation Foundation has released a scorecard rating political parties’ environmental policies out of 100 points.

It has given the Liberal/National coalition 11 points, Labor 53 and the Greens 77.

ACF arrived at the scores by measuring parties’ policies on clean energy, cutting pollution and protecting nature against the tests set out in ACF’s National Agenda.

The ACF’s CEO, Kelly O’Shanassy, says:

The politicians who want to lead the country must have real plans to protect people, rivers, reefs, forests and wildlife for the future.

The Liberal/National’s 11 out of 100 on the environment is woefully inadequate. If they are not prepared to lead on climate and nature, they are not fit to lead the country.

The ALP’s and the Green’s policies on protecting nature and cutting pollution put them a long way ahead of the Coalition, but there is still room for improvement.

It follows reports yesterday that the majority of coral is now dead on many reefs in the central section of the Great Barrier Reef.

An average of 35% of coral was now dead or dying in the northern and central sections, according to the surveys led by the Australian Research Council’s Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies.

Updated

I’ll try to bring you some of this interview shortly:

Political editor Lenore Taylor has more on Labor’s tourism plan for Queensland, which Shorten will officially announce today.

Bill Shorten will hive off $1bn from the Turnbull government’s $5bn northern Australia infrastructure facility and repurpose it for tourism projects in the north.

The Labor leader planned to make the announcement on Tuesday as he again campaigns in north Queensland where Labor is fighting for seats including Dawson, Capricornia, Leichhardt and the independent-held seat of Kennedy.

Shorten announced a separate $500m fund to help protect the Great Barrier Reef through better research, coordination and environmental programs.

The Coalition has set up an independent board to administer concessional infrastructure loans from the $5bn facility it announced in its 2015 budget.

Its investment mandate stipulates that the loans must be at least $50m and its public statements indicate dams, airports, port expansions and other projects that could boost the economy of northern Australia will be the beneficiaries.

But if it wins government Labor will take $1bn of that money and allocate it to a tourism-specific fund, to be administered by the federal infrastructure, transport and tourism department.

Full story here.

The Courier Mail reports the plan will kick-start Queensland tourism. The Mail says:

We’ve long since moved on from the days of marketing ourselves with bikini girls, and Paul Hogan cremating crustaceans on a barbie, but our hard tourism assets have not really kept pace with the change in visitor expectations.

Updated

Good morning, welcome to politics live. Yesterday the leaders were dogged by questions about what a hung parliament would mean, with neither side ruling out governing if such an event occurred. Both leaders were also criticised for their lacklustre performances in the second leaders debate.

Thankfully, last night’s Q&A program contained a bit more excitement, with Jacqui Lambie, Nick Xenophon, Greens leader Richard Di Natale, Labor’s Terri Butler and the Liberal Party’s Steve Ciobo giving much less scripted performances. Di Natale told the audience:

The debate was a snooze-fest, wasn’t it? It’s an hour of our life we won’t get back.

Many have said the same after watching an episode of Q&A.

But Ciobo bit back, telling Di Natale that he was “arrogant”:

I will tell you why the two majors are the two majors. It’s because we share values and we share a policy platform that most Australians identify with.

Richard, most Australians don’t identify with Greens policies. They’re not in favour of legalising drugs, they’re not in favour of opening up our borders to bring as many people as possible from overseas.

Butler added: “You were not at the debate because you are not vying to become the Prime Minister”.

Melissa Davey here with you, I’ll be taking you through until 8.30am when Katharine Murphy and the team will take over from Canberra.

Don’t forget that you can join Murph and Lenore Taylor in Sydney and Melbourne as they host our Guardian Live election special events, featuring a panel of prominent political guests. It will be better than Q&A, true.

Who knows what fun the campaign trail has in store for us today. Let’s get started.

The big picture

The ABC reports that the Liberal party has been left spooked by a poll published in the Australian on Monday. That poll suggested the Coalition has suffered large enough swings against it in two-party-preferred terms in Queensland, Western Australia and NSW to lose the election. The ABC reports that Liberal MPs blame, in part, a downturn in the WA economy:

The ABC has spoken to several Liberal MPs who are concerned and surprised with the apparent size of the swing.

They attributed it to the downturn in WA’s economy and voters being disaffected with the state’s premier, Colin Barnett.

One WA Liberal MP said recent speculation about Mr Barnett’s leadership “didn’t help”.

There is a view within the WA Labor party that the state’s voters have made up their minds and the ALP should pick up at least three lower house seats and up to two in the senate.

But according to Fairfax, political strategists for both major parties believe the Coalition is on track to lose about 12 seats at the July 2 poll, which would return the Turnbull government, albeit with a reduced second-term majority.

The Prime Minister’s home state of NSW has emerged as the weakest link for the Coalition and the state where the most seats could change hands, but the ALP’s push to claim as many as 11 Queensland seats of the 21 required for Labor to form government is flagging.

Underscoring the vulnerability of Coalition seats in Sydney’s west, Labor will formally launch its campaign in Penrith, in the Liberal-held marginal seat of Lindsay, on June 19.

Meanwhile the Financial Review reports that with this week’s gross domestic product figures expected to show the economy slowed to a below-trend 2.7% in the first quarter, the treasurer Scott Morrison will ramp up his attacks on Labor’s opposition to corporate tax cuts. Morrison told the Fin:

This is a very sensitive time for the Australian economy. Wherever the figures land, the policy objective doesn’t change - and that’s about securing growth in this economy. You can’t increase investment by taxing it more.”

In a similar vein, The Australian reports that Shorten’s “unrelenting attack” on the Coalition’s proposed business tax cuts “is driving a deep wedge between the opposition and corporate Australia”.

As the Opposition leader yesterday declared he would not be “dictated to by business”, four of the nation’s most respected business leaders called for a higher standard of political debate, questioning Labor’s divisive election tactics.

Former Business Council of Australia president Graham Bradley warned that Labor’s recent policies gave few in business confidence the party had learned its lesson from the mining and carbon tax “debacles”.

Wesfarmers and Woodside chairman Michael Chaney lamented the “scaremongering and divisive approach that’s taken in modern political campaigns” that was pitting “battlers versus well-off, rich versus poor, haves versus have-nots, rather than working to achieve a greater pie for all”.

On the campaign trail

Bill Shorten will campaign in Queensland for a second day in a row. Guardian Australia’s political editor, Lenore Taylor, writes that he will announce that $1bn from the Turnbull government’s $5bn northern Australia infrastructure facility will be repurpose for tourism projects in the north under Labor.

In north Queensland, Labor is fighting for the seats of Dawson, Capricornia, Leichhardt and the independent-held seat of Kennedy.

Turnbull will remain in Sydney and commit $20m towards research for children with untreatable cancers.

The campaign you should be watching

With Shorten again in Queensland lets take a look at the seat of Petrie north of Brisbane, a bellwether seat currently held by the LNP’s Luke Howarth by a margin of 0.5%.

According to Fairfax:

Luke Howarth defeated now-Queensland Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath to claim the seat in 2013. It’s the Coalition’s second-most marginal seat in Australia and will be one of the first to fall should there be a swing to Labor. The electorate stretches north to Burpengary, east to Redcliffe, south to Aspley and west to North Lakes.

Howarth has performed well locally, but it’s hard to see Petrie’s dissatisfaction with the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era flowing through another electoral cycle.

And another thing(s)

Some more details about the central coast man that NSW police have charged over allegedly posting racist comments on the Facebook page of outgoing Labor senator Nova Peris.

Woy Woy-based chiropractor and osteopath Chris Nelson was arrested on Monday afternoon following an investigation by Brisbane police, after Peris shared the offensive post through her social media accounts. Part of the message said: “You were only endorsed by Juliar because you were black. Go back to the bush and suck on witchety grubs and yams.”

Peris responded in Facebook post:

I’ll continue to wear ochre on my face just like my people have done for thousands of years! My skin is my pride.

Malarndirri McCarthy, a former minister in the Northern Territory government and ABC presenter, has won preselection to replace Peris.

Trust the Twitterati to hold the pollies to account on Q&A

Updated

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