Good night and good luck
Unbelievably, we’ve made it through eight weeks, and through the last business day of #ausvotes 2016. Of course election day and the night of nights looms, and we will be covering it all live, from the sausage sizzles through the day to the sound and the fury of the evening of election night. Helen Davidson will have the day shift tomorrow, and I will be calling the results live from about 5pm tomorrow evening until the results are known.
Given I posted a summary late today I won’t be exhaustive about Friday’s events. Malcolm Turnbull had a rough day, Bill Shorten had a better day. The campaigns have over the past 48 hours have just pushed out into the community to try and get their respective operations over the line. Whether that works is now up to you folks. Use your votes wisely and well, the only thing worse than democracy is the alternative.
There are many people I need to thank for the live coverage over the past two months. This has been a team effort. First up I want to thank the early morning shift: Bridie Jabour, Melissa Davey, Calla Wahlquist, Helen Davidson. I need to thank the woman with whom I share a brain, Gabrielle Chan, who has steered the Politics Live ship when I have been doing live events, or trying to record podcasts – and will inherit this project when I retire from live coverage after tomorrow night. I need to thank all the reporters who have made contributions, particularly Paul Karp and Gareth Hutchens, who have put up with barked instructions from me with enormously good grace. There are also wonderful production folks in Sydney who tidy up my mess when I make it and roll headlines – you know who you are, and I’m grateful.
This project is nothing without Mike Bowers, who brings the narration to life every day with his visual storytelling. Working with him has been one of the great joys of my professional life. He’s worked every single day of this campaign, and no-one pushes himself harder to bring you the news as it happens. Thank you Bowers. And I couldn’t have done the last eight weeks without the leadership, friendship and forbearance of Lenore Taylor. There are never enough thank you’s in the world to cover the debt of gratitude I owe Lenore.
The biggest thanks, of course, go to the readers. Thanks you for coming every day in such large numbers, whether you hate read or whether you want to be part of a rolling conversation about national affairs in convivial spirit, you are all welcome. You are the reason we do it. There is no other agenda we serve in this operation. We’ve worked our backsides off to serve your interests, so we hope we’ve helped bring you the information you need. So thanks, for reading.
One more big 24 hours to go. Rest up. I look forward to seeing you tomorrow night.
I think we are almost there folks. I’ll post a summary next.
I just saw on Sky News political editor David Speers telling colleagues that voters at a forum in Rooty Hill last night had no idea who the Greens leader Richard Di Natale was, when they were shown a photograph of him.
Fortunately Pete knows exactly who Di Natale is.
Pete is thrilled to meet @RichardDiNatale @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/mlMex6pB2s
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) July 1, 2016
(The voters in Rooty Hill also struggled to identify Scott Morrison, Speers said.)
I’ve been avoiding election signage all day because it feels like a bridge too far. Today I’ve been concentrating efforts on what you absolutely need to know today, the information you need to help you make a decision.
You don’t really need to know about signage, but in the interests of being comprehensive: signage, it’s a jungle out there. That’s it really. All day I’ve been seeing references to various parties ripping down each other’s signs. Because, you know, it’s time in professional politics to go crazy with your own adrenalin filled outrages. The Liberals are out and about in the Sydney suburb of Earlwood, staking their claims.
Liberal team out early, wall to wall plastering of every available space on #Earlwood school fence. Leave no gaps! pic.twitter.com/o4cYKj9CgV
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) July 1, 2016
Shorten street walk in Hurstville #ausvotes @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/J1AHArzwUL
— Paul Karp (@Paul_Karp) July 1, 2016
Mind the sophomore surge
Either side has a chance of winning the election on Saturday night, but the Coalition is more likely to win if the national two-party-preferred vote is effectively a tie.
Labor, on the other hand, would need to significantly outpoll the Coalition to be likely to win a majority. This is in part because the personal vote of first-term MPs will give the Coalition a boost in many of its marginal seats.
In 2013, Tony Abbott’s Coalition won 53.5% of the vote after preferences were distributed. If there were a uniform swing of 3.5% in every electorate from the Coalition to Labor, the Coalition would win 75 seats and Labor 71. But thanks to a phenomenon known as “sophomore surge”, the Coalition would likely win more than 75 seats if they won exactly half of the two-party-preferred vote.
A majority of voters usually vote based on broad national trends – most seats within a state tend to swing in the same direction. But each MP also has a personal vote that can give them a boost above their party’s general support base. MPs develop personal votes for a variety of reasons. Sitting MPs are prominent personalities in their community. They appear regularly in local media and sometimes in the national media, they attend events and they will do a variety of campaigning outside of election time. The same is not normally true of their opponents.
Federal MPs also benefit from a tremendous financial advantage over their opponents. The federal parliament employs a number of staff for each MP, along with a well-resourced office. Federal MPs also have large budgets for communicating with their constituents. Federal MPs also play a role in providing government assistance to constituents.
If someone has represented their electorate for a long time, you can assume that their personal vote is factored in to their electorate margin. But if there is a change in the person who represents an area, this can lead to what is sometimes called a “sophomore surge”.
A first-term MP is expected to have some kind of personal vote after representing their electorate for three years. That personal vote didn’t exist at the previous election, so it wasn’t factored into the margin. Thus, you should expect a first-term MP to do slightly better than the national or statewide trend would suggest.
This effect is more substantial if they defeated an MP of the opposing party at the previous election. The effect isn’t quite as strong when the sitting MP (of either party) had retired at the last election.
Personal votes can also be a factor when a sitting MP retires. With the party no longer benefiting from that candidate’s personal vote, that seat will often see a less favourable swing for the party holding the seat.
Electoral analyst Peter Brent (who has written a lot about the sophomore surge) estimates that an MP’s personal vote can be worth around 1-2%.
Sophomore surge is most evident when first-term governments are seeking a second term. If a government is in its first term, most of its marginal seats will be held by new MPs who are building a new personal vote. If a sophomore surge happens in a series of key marginal seats, it can concentrate any anti-government swing in least marginal areas.
Independent Tony Windsor has just been on Sky News and he rates his prospect of victory on Saturday night as 50-50. He rates Rob Oakeshott as having a higher chance, he thinks 70% prospect of Oakeshott victory in Cowper. (Just imagine if Oakeshott wins, Ray Hadley will explode like the Australia day fireworks display.)
Windsor is asked whether he’ll retreat from the political battlefield if he doesn’t win tomorrow night. Nope, doesn’t look like it.
Tony Windsor:
Never say never.
Good afternoon to Mike Bowers, who has caught the caravan now. We saw lots of the prime ministerial fist in that closing submission, Mike thought we should zoom in given the hands were a key feature of the presentation.
Let's take stock
Okedokes, let’s take a moment to work out what’s happened today.
Malcolm Turnbull planned his final day to be a couple of breakfast television spots and a bit of radio, a cheer session with a bunch of fresh faced young Liberals at a factory somewhere, a light lope through Burwood, minus press conference. After fluffing on consultation fees during said breakfast television, guaranteeing somewhat rashly fees would not rise for patients going to the doctor, a press conference was convened. Fees would of course rise, if doctors wanted them to, the prime minister clarified, but they couldn’t possibly blame the freeze in the GP rebate for that. No, that was all about doctors wanting to charge their patients more. The PM also declared earlier in the day that Labor had opposed the China free trade deal, which is a complete fiction, but I suspect a fiction that only a pedant like me cares about ultimately. Doubts about health – more dangerous, even at this late stage.
Bill Shorten spent Thursday fighting through a fog, with a conventional wisdom descending that the election was all over bar the shouting. But the Ipsos poll, showing the major parties locked in a dead heat, put a surge of energy through the Labor campaign on the final day. Shorten hit the hustings in Martin Place with the Medicare rally, before sticking on health through the day. He shrugged off leadership questions and criticised the prime minister’s “absolute” guarantee that consultation fees would not rise if the Coalition won on Saturday as an untruth.
Onwards, upwards.
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Last pod for the campaign
Actually while I’m gathering, let me share our final podcast episode for the campaign. This episode is quick final thoughts, some on the road reflections from Mike Bowers, and a primer for things to watch on Saturday night when you are having your election parties.
We will record another episode over this weekend, once the results are known. Enjoy!
I just need to catch my breath for a minute before I post a summary of the day’s play thus far, but I stand by my view that’s a bad stumble on consultation fees by the prime minister today. It’s a hip pocket issue. If people are watching, they will have logged it. Back shortly with a stocktake before we push on.
Q: Prime minister, 30% of voters are set to choose an Independent or minor party. We have already heard many times your view on what that could lead to. The question is, why do you think fewer people are engaging with the major parties in this election particularly?
Malcolm Turnbull:
All will be revealed tomorrow night. All will be revealed tomorrow night. The Australian people, everyone has had a view. Everyone has had a view about what the Australian people think.
Tomorrow they will tell us. And they will tell us emphatically and decisively and I thank you all for accompanying me on this 8-week campaign, and we look forward to the judgement of the Australian people tomorrow.
Q: Will there will be tax reform on the table in the second term Turnbull government?
Malcolm Turnbull:
All of our tax reform is set out in the economic plan. It is set out in our plan. We’re taking it to the Australian public. If they return my government they will have given us a mandate to carry out our national economic plan and the tax reform, the substantial tax reform, that is contained in it.
Q: Bill Shorten has been on a campaigning blitz today, visiting a few marginal Sydney seats. You’ve just had a relatively quiet day in the seat of Reid. Are you confident that you have this in the bag and you’ve already got your message across?
Malcolm Turnbull:
This is a very close election. You’re clearly not paying attention to the polls. It is close. It really is close.
Q: Prime Minister, on Brexit, you talked about having a conversation with John Key on, I guess, a coordinated approach. Would that include perhaps a joint FTA with New Zealand with the United Kingdom effectively treating it like a Trans-Tasman Common Market with the UK?
Malcolm Turnbull says he’ll meet John Key if he’s re-elected and look “at all of those issues and we will consider all of those matters when we get together.”
'We're delivering it as quickly as we can'
To Shane Wright’s delayed tax cut story that I pointed you to earlier today: the tax office says people will not get their tax cut on July 1.
Q: Prime minister, on your economic plan you said yesterday that from day one you would work on the tax cut, the income tax cut for Australian workers. It turns out there is an administrative reason that means that cannot start from day one. So how are you going to get around that problem of implementing that tax cut as swiftly as possible because it’s meant to apply from today, July 1?
Malcolm Turnbull:
It will apply from today, David. It will be legislated and then any and from the moment of legislation, tax will be collected at the appropriate rate. So the tax cut will be formally and officially delivered, and any tax over and above the new rate that’s been paid from 1 July until that point will be accounted for at the end of the year. So every Australian will get the benefit of the tax cut either during or at the end of this current financial year, begun today.
Q: Are you asking them to be patient and wait for it?
Malcolm Turnbull:
We’re delivering it as quickly as we can. I can assure you this is not a novel state of affairs. This is something the taxation department is very familiar with. Every Australian will benefit from that tax cut in the course of this year if we are returned to government and legislate those tax cuts as we are committed to.
Q: Why did you tell people on TV this morning that you could guarantee no increases?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Let’s be absolutely clear about this. The point I am making is that the freeze in the indexation, which is not a justification or not a cause to charge the sort of increases that you’re talking about ... If a doctor wishes to charge more, he or she may attribute that higher charge to whatever they like, but they cannot credibly attribute it to not getting an extra 60 cents ...
'Doctors can charge more. Some of them do.'
Naturally reporters move straight into the over-egging this morning on consultation fees.
Q: How can you guarantee that people won’t have to pay more to see the doctor?
Malcolm Turnbull says what he said was “clear.” He says there is no cap on what doctors can charge. He says if doctors hike their fees by big amounts, that’s got nothing to do with the freeze on indexation.
The freeze on indexation means that doctors as of today, 1 July, do not get an extra 60 cents. It’s a little less than 60 cents. Over the four years it would be around $2. So the argument that these large increases in doctors’ charges are a consequence of indexation not being continued, is simply not correct. That’s the point. Doctors can charge more. Some of them do. The fact is, as we know, that bulk billing is at an all-time high, fact. That is a fact. It’s at an all-time high, despite the fact that the rebate has remained the same since 2013.
Malcolm Turnbull:
We set out that national economic plan, bringing it all together in the budget and we have campaigned on that throughout this 8-week campaign. We put that now before the Australian people for their judgement. We ask for their support, we ask them to choose stability, leadership, a strong Coalition majority government and the national economic plan that is delivering strong growth and jobs today and will do more so in the years ahead.
Malcolm Turnbull addresses reporters in Sydney
The prime minister is urging voters to stick together and stick with the plan to deliver the strong economy that enables us to fulfil our dreams.
Malcolm Turnbull:
We say to the Australian people, we ask them to support the Coalition, to stick with us and our economic plan. If we stick together, and if we stick with this plan, then we will continue to deliver the strong economic growth we need, the strong economy that enables us to realise our dreams, to get that job, to start that business, to deliver the revenues that pay for all of our essential government services.
A dispatch from Campelltown
Hello everyone. I’m on the road with Labor today. Bill Shorten has done a quick visit and doorstop at Tharawal Aboriginal Corporation, a youth centre and health service in Campbelltown in South-west Sydney. Shorten was welcomed by an Indigenous elder who offered him a boomerang. When someone noted boomerangs always come back, Shorten declared “we’ll come back, and save Medicare in the process!”
You probably didn’t know boomerangs could do that, but today, everything is about Medicare. Shorten was keen to curry favour with the media, offering around sandwiches and fruit before the doorstop. When asked what he’ll miss about the campaign, Shorten indulged the journalists’ egos by saying he’d miss us, which drew bitter, cynical laughter.
Labor’s candidate for Macarthur, Mike Freelander, a paediatrician, stressed the cuts to healthcare and Medicare were real, and would worsen people’s health and cause them to avoid health services. He introduced Shorten as the next prime minister. At the end of the press conference the centre’s workers gathered on the steps and shouted “Bill! Bill! Bill!”
I spoke to Yasir Bashir, a GP at the centre who was very on message about why he was in the crowd cheering for Bill. “What the Liberals did was very sneaky – first they said they would charge people $7 for the doctor, and people hated that. But with the Medicare rebate freeze, they have made doctors the bad guy”. The Tharawal centre is 100% bulk-billed and doesn’t want to pass on the increasing cost of care to patients, for fear they will stop coming. But rising costs will impact the quality of services as they may stop doing extra checks such as hearing and sight checks as they are forced to keep consultations shorter.
Updated
The prime minister, pictured here in Burwood, is coming up shortly with his press conference.
Updated
The last question is what he’s enjoyed about the campaign. Bill Shorten takes that as an invitation to deliver the stump speech one last time. I’ll spare you that.
Bill Shorten is asked about Bob Hawke being quoted somewhere today suggesting Labor won’t win. The Labor leader says Hawkie was talking about the bookies, and he’s always taken a keen interest in the bookies.
He’s then asked about post-election deals with crossbenchers.
I can promise Australians we won’t be forming a coalition with the Greens.
Updated
If we see One Nation elected: blame Malcolm Turnbull and the Greens
Q: What is your advice to the swath of independent senators that are likely to be elected tomorrow?
Bill Shorten:
Well, my advice is that people thinking about voting for them – don’t take the long way around to a better Australia. Just vote Labor.
In terms of the independent senators, we will see what the electorate picks. Remember, Mr Turnbull changed the voting system in the Senate. I hope he hasn’t got it wrong. And I hope the informal vote doesn’t increase. Because he and the Greens cooked up this new Senate voting system.
Whatever happens in this election, if we see longer queues, because of the time it takes to fill out the Senate ballot paper, if we see One Nation elected, if we see a greater informal form, blame Malcolm Turnbull and the Greens. This was their idea.
Updated
Bill Shorten gets several questions on Indigenous policy.
Q: What are your plans for the Indigenous advisory council if you are elected?
Bill Shorten:
We have announced $15m in grant funding for the Congress. The best voice for Aboriginal people is the voice they choose. We think the more you empower communities to have a say politically on their future, that’s the best way forward.
Updated
Q: Do you feel like strangling Daniel Andrews with a firefighter’s hose over the damage that the CFA dispute has done to your campaign in Victoria?
Bill Shorten, consistently anti-strangulation.
I don’t feel like ever strangling anyone, to be honest. Seriously, it has been a long dispute and it is greatly disappointing. I know what volunteers do. They are the heart of the CFA. I know how hard career firefighters work. I have seen the work of purely volunteer brigades, and I have seen the work of integrated stations. People work side by side. I have never met a firefighter who isn’t committed to the safety of Victorians and Victoria.
So I get this dispute is greatly frustrating. But what I also know is that in every dispute there is a start, a middle and there will be a conclusion. What I also know is it is a state issue. I understand why Mr Turnbull is keen to use people as pawns in his pursuit of federal political power. The solution to this dispute lies in the hands of volunteer and career firefighters, the state government and the citizens of Victoria. I’m very confident it will get fixed.
Updated
Q: This morning on Neil Mitchell you said there was no honourable second place. Does that mean that if you lose the election you won’t put your hand up again for the leadership ballot?
Bill Shorten:
Well, in fear of repeating myself I am determined to win the election.
Bill Shorten continues on Medicare and the Turnbull over-reach.
He’s hung up about us. We are interested in the Australian people. The facts of the matter are that his budget released on May 3 does contain dreadful cuts to Medicare. The facts are that he is scrapping the bulk-billing incentives in the future for X-rays, blood tests.
The facts of the matter is that he is freezing the GP rebate. No less a person than the new president of the AMA has said in response to the long freezes of the GP rebate, he’s said not only are they unsustainable he said GPs are at breaking point. The Royal Australian College of GPs said 14.5 million patients also pay more to see the doctor.
Mr Turnbull is running scared of the reaction of the Australian people. Australians don’t like it when conservative governments mess with Medicare.
Updated
Q: You were straight out called a liar by Malcolm Turnbull about what you say he’s planning to do for Medicare. But you have stopped short of returning the dig. Why is that?
Bill Shorten:
I am running for prime minister. I am not running for chief name caller of Australia. Do you remember when Malcolm Turnbull promised a whole brand new form of politics, nine months ago? What a disappointment he’s been.
Bill Shorten addresses the media on the last working day of the campaign: low, outrageous, untruthful
The Labor leader has begun his press conference and he’s pounced on the prime minister over-egging on bulk billing this morning.
Bill Shorten:
This is a new low. It is outrageous. It is untruthful.
And he knows the facts are different to what he said on television this morning.
Mr Turnbull is now running scared of the Australian people. The Australian people are most concerned at his cuts to Medicare, and the Australian people, I suspect, are going to send a very clear message to Malcolm Turnbull.
Hands off Medicare!
Updated
Fruit too.
Bill Shorten feeds the starving media pack pic.twitter.com/9xJwc6aY1s
— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) July 1, 2016
Feeding the chooks takes on a thoroughly modern dimension.
Bill Shorten has bright out some sandwiches for the waiting media. #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/0xWdCjZjN7
— Rob Harris (@rharris334) July 1, 2016
Cormann does not repeat the prime minister's guarantee on consultation fees
The Coalition’s campaign spokesman Mathias Cormann is on the ABC now. Inevitably, he gets asked about the prime minister’s over-egged guarantee that patients will not pay more under the Coalition’s policy.
As final day cock-ups go, this one is significant. Cormann resorts to “doctors will get a tax cut”. He doesn’t repeat the prime minister’s guarantee.
Q: This morning the prime minister was asked: “Can you guarantee viewers of the program will not pay more to see the doctor due to the freeze in rebates?” The answer was: “Absolutely, bulk billing is at an all-time high.” Is that a guarantee you are actually making, that the out-of-pocket payment that a patient may have to make will not go up?
Mathias Cormann:
What the prime minister did this morning was make a statement of fact. I mean, he pointed out that under the Coalition, bulk-billing rates, which are at the heart of Medicare, are higher than they have ever been ...
Q: Is that actually a guarantee that a government or any prime minister can make, because this is a free market? Doctors can charge what they like over and above?
Mathias Cormann:
Doctors are running small businesses and, of course, doctors under the Coalition will be better off come 1 July 2016, because we will deliver a tax cut to small business, which Labor is opposing. Doctors running small businesses will be better off under the Coalition than under Labor, and what we are saying is that because – just because we are making a very small adjustment, through the indexation freeze on Medicare rebates, that doesn’t mean doctors should be reducing bulk billing. If you look at the evidence in the market, bulk-billing rates are higher than they ever were under Labor. Bulk-billing rates are higher than they have ever been.
Updated
Bill Shorten is walking through a medical clinic in Sydney.
Shorten receives boomerang "we'll come back and save Medicare in the process" #ausvotes @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/jrRYaQjHEF
— Paul Karp (@Paul_Karp) July 1, 2016
We expect press conferences from both leaders shortly.
Updated
Another contribution from Canberra blogger Paula Matthewson on health.
@murpharoo I lived in the ACT for nearly 30 years, & over that time paid Dr co-payments of $20-55. Those who can afford to pay shld pay.
— Paula Matthewson (@Drag0nista) July 1, 2016
This is a huge conversation. I imagine it’s happening in the thread. Sadly I don’t have time to look.
Essential: late swing back to the Coalition
Over on Crikey, political editor Bernard Keane has the final Essential poll of the campaign, which tracks a late swing back to the Coalition.
A late swing to the government is likely to deliver a victory for Malcolm Turnbull, Essential Research’s final poll of the campaign shows. The government has finished the campaign with the narrowest of two-party preferred leads, 50.5%, over Labor, 49.5%, based on an improved primary vote of 42.5%, while Labor’s primary vote has fallen significantly, to 34.5%. That makes for a three-point swing to Labor since the 2013 election; on a uniform national basis that would suggest Labor would gain just nine seats, less than half of what it needs for victory. The Greens have improved their vote to 11.5% (somewhat offsetting Labor’s primary vote fall), while the Nick Xenophon Team is currently on 1.5% nationally (although this can’t be directly compared to previous levels, due the inclusion of South Australian numbers). “Others” are on 10.5%.
(Labor privately is hoping for about 10 seats tomorrow night, just by the by.)
Updated
Back to Burwood.
We've reached peak media mob/rubbernecker status #ausvotes #AFRonthetrail pic.twitter.com/s6sVtUAd58
— Joanna Mather (@JoannaMather) July 1, 2016
The prime minister’s staff are extremely relaxed on this street walk. They’re laughing and joking with journalists. One’s just grabbed a big sandwich and is chowing down, laughing about how hungry he is.
[Murph: crashing in on Gareth briefly, if anyone could send me a sandwich, I’d be grateful. Cheers in advance.]
Updated
Will the prime minister live to regret this undertaking? 'Sam, absolutely'
Sorry to jump about, it’s inevitable on a day like today I’m afraid. I’m just checking back through the various interviews this morning to make sure we haven’t missed anything vital.
On bulk billing, the prime minister went even further on breakfast television this morning than he did on the AM program. Here, Turnbull offers an “absolutely” when asked whether he can guarantee patients won’t pay more. It’s unequivocal, have a look.
Q: Okay. Well let’s talk about this so-called Medicare scare campaign. The opposition has gone hard on this. You have promised repeatedly no changes. You have, however, committed to a freeze on the GP rebate. Can you guarantee our viewers will pay – will not pay more to see the doctor due to this freeze?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Sam, absolutely, and bulk billing is at its all-time high. The freeze in the Medicare indexation to the Medicare rebate was started by Labor in 2013. We have continued it in order to ensure that we have more money to put into other areas of health like bringing drugs like Herceptin on to the PBS, lifesaving drugs. Like being able to spend nearly $200m on new frontline services like Headspace and suicide prevention trials in order to address the huge challenges of mental illness. What we are doing is managing Australia’s health dollar as efficiently as we can. If indexation was restored today, it would add less than 60 cents to the amount that a doctor would receive for a consultation.
You know, this is not – we are not talking about dramatic changes here per consultation. What we are talking about is an absolute iron-clad guarantee to continue our support for Medicare. We spend more on Medicare every year. What Bill Shorten has said about Medicare is a disgraceful lie. He has been called out for it as you know. He has been mocked about it in the media. But they keep on doing it and they have had unionists ringing up older Australians, late at night and frightening them about Medicare and health services. Can I tell you Medicare is guaranteed, absolutely guaranteed.
I remind you again the AMA is saying something quite different to that. The AMA is saying fees are going up today.
Updated
Back to Higgins for a bit. Greens leader Richard Di Natale has been campaigning on election eve morning in Higgins with his candidate Jason Ball, who has been running a strong, grass-roots campaign against the sitting member, the Liberal’s Kelly O’Dwyer.
O’Dwyer has had a couple of headaches in the past couple of days - namely, a revelation that she used a ‘fake family’ in some of her campaign material, and an investigation launched by Twitter into why she claimed copyright over photos that actually belonged to Fairfax in order to have them removed from the social media website.
But of greatest concern to O’Dwyer would be a poll [commissioned by the Greens]last month that found her vote in the once safe Liberal seat had fallen to 44.1%, making her vulnerable to Ball. Among an army of Greens supporters on Friday morning, O’Dwyer says during a media interview that “I think all elections are really important, they’re hotly contested”. “I don’t take this seat for granted,” she said. Asked about her fake family, she says “I’m just focussed on the issues in this electorate,” before cutting the interview short.
Kelly O'Dwyer cuts interview short after being asked about her 'fake family' she used in campaign flyers.@murpharoo pic.twitter.com/Nz0akjBtmZ
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) July 1, 2016
She’s up against Ball and Labor’s Carl Katter [Bob Katter’s half-brother], both gay candidates with same sex marriage and LGBTI rights firmly on their agendas. [You can read a profileI did with Ball, a former Australian-rules footballer, in August after he announced he would be running]. Ball says that he has a range of issues on his agenda however, and that he is confident of polling well. “I know there are a lot of good people here in Higgins who might not choose to vote for me, but if I was lucky enough to be elected to represent them I will do my absolute best to do so to the best of my abilities,” he says. “People in Higgins want strong action on global warming. They want an economy powered by clean, renewable energy. And they are dismayed by the race to the bottom from the old parties when it comes to the issue of people seeking asylum. They also want equality, for their sons, daughters and grandchildren, and they don’t want money spent on a wasteful plebiscite that won’t be binding.”
A Greens supporter handing out hand-to-vote cards claims that people feel their vote will really count in what has been considered a safe Liberal seat. “I think it will be very close. This whole notion that Liberal voters don’t consider voting Green is completely a fallacy.” Di Natale is going to spend the afternoon campaigning in Melbourne with Adam Bandt.
Updated
It looks like a complete zoo in Burwood. If you need to get anywhere right now, avoid Burwood Road.
"Who says you don't stop traffic?" Calls out one passerby. pic.twitter.com/4rL33oSEyy
— David Crowe (@CroweDM) July 1, 2016
Now he’s walking slowly past the entrance to Burwood train station (hoping for lots of real people to bump into). A protester dressed as a big fluffy yellow sun (renewable energy fan) is hugging tightly to the press pack.
The prime minister has just started his street walk in Burwood, and he’s walked into the Daily Cafe on Burwood Road (the bread smells amazing). There are dozens of stunned onlookers. A tight footpath. Slow crawling traffic.
Concerning the question I just posed on health: who do you believe? The prime minister or the AMA on billing practices in GP clinics .. some very prompt reader feedback from the Politics Live community.
@murpharoo I believe the AMA. My local clinic just introduced a high copayment already, which is a result of the rebate freeze. 1/2
— UriahHeep (@notthebandfool) July 1, 2016
And there is no alternative GP in my small town! @murpharoo
— UriahHeep (@notthebandfool) July 1, 2016
Just tracking back to the AMA president Michael Gannon. In addition to what I’ve shared with you, he’s told reporters Australia needs a serious debate about health, which has not been delivered in the course of the election campaign. He’s absolutely right about that: neither side of politics knows how they are going to fund universal healthcare and hospitals into the future.
Despite Labor running strongly on universal healthcare this election, it doesn’t have a ten-year plan on hospitals, despite having ten-year plans on various other things, and making a virtue of producing medium-term costings and forecasts. Neither does the government, but Labor gets an extra thumbs down from me on this point, because (unlike the Coalition) it is presenting itself in 2016 in very stark terms as the sole guardians of universal healthcare. Labor’s policies in this election cycle suggest Labor has some claim to this mantle, full points for making health a priority in several practical ways, BUT the long-term cost profile of providing public health has not been addressed by Labor in this election. And without dollars, aspirations are just that. Aspirations.
Michael Gannon:
We need to be able to have intelligent conversations about how we fund public hospitals, about how we invest in preventative health, about how we fund the whole of the health system. So it’s important that we have those conversations in a mature and appropriate way. Equally, right in the now, we need to talk about how different policies might make it harder for the poorest in our community to access care.
Updated
Let the trumpets sound!
Plans have changed. Apparently Malcolm Turnbull will hold a final press conference now. One of his press secs said that was always what they’d planned, but we had jumped the gun by assuming that when she said a press conference was “unlikely” today it meant there wouldn’t be one.
Nice spinning huh?
Just so we can do a quick comparison with the AMA president saying just then some billing practices will change from today – this was the prime minister on rebates on AM this morning. (Don’t you worry about it Michael. Bulk-billing has never been higher.)
Q: One of the issues at the heart of it is the decision to freeze the GP rebate for the next six years. Now that will inevitably increase costs. How can you guarantee that costs won’t be passed onto patients?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, can I say to you that the Medicare rebate was frozen was frozen by, was not ...
Q: Okay, but ...
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Michael, just let me finish. It was frozen by Labor in 2013 and it has remained that way since. Bulk-billing has never been higher. It has increased to the highest level in the history of Medicare. Medicare is absolutely guaranteed. We will be spending more money on Medicare every year. Medicare is absolutely guaranteed and every single element of Medicare’s services, every aspect of its services that is undertaken by government today will be undertaken by government in the future.
Q: If you continue the freeze on the rebate, which you do plan to do, how can you guarantee that costs won’t increase to patients? I mean it’s out of your control, isn’t it?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, the doctors are free to charge patients as they wish ...
Q: Precisely.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: ... they’re free now and the fact of the matter is that bulk-billing has never been higher. If indexation were restored today, it would add to the payment GPs get, just under 60 cents, so the proposition that the return of indexation or the failure to return indexation will result in a collapse in bulk-billing is simply not true and it’s not borne out by the evidence. The fact is Labor set up the freeze in 2013. We’ve continued it simply because we want to be able to spend more of our health dollars in other areas such as bringing life-saving drugs onto the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme … life-saving drugs that we’re bringing onto the PBS at large cost and of course, as you have seen, spending nearly $200m on additional mental health services, more Head Spaces, suicide prevention trials, a significant investment in and reform of mental health, which we’ve done in collaboration with the leading mental health experts in the country which has been applauded by that sector, and so what we’re doing is making our health dollar go further. The point about bulk-billing is very simply this – it has never, ever been higher than it is today.
So where does this leave the sum of human knowledge?
- I’ll say this to you all day folks: you’ve heard the competing arguments: the AMA says billing will change from today, the prime minister says bulk-billing has never been higher.
- It is over to you guys now – who do you believe?
Updated
AMA: 'There are many areas where the Labor party has stronger policies.'
The Australian Medical Association president Michael Gannon is holding a press conference in Canberra.
Q: How much more will patients have to pay to see a doctor if Malcolm Turnbull wins tomorrow?
Michael Gannon:
That is one of the things we are concerned about with the freeze on GP rebates, is that the GPs tell us they are at breaking point and their ability to continue to take the hit, the ability to continue to provide a quality service at the level of the patient rebate is nearly over. If they do make the decision that it’s time to start billing patients, there could be amounts like $15 a patient. That’s what we are concerned about. We know that there are people, if they are asked to pay $15 to pay the doctor, they will defer important care leading to them getting sicker and sicker.
Q: How soon are doctors telling you they will start charging?
Michael Gannon:
We know there are some GPs that are changing their billing practices and that commences today, on July 1. The reality is that there are a lot of GPs who decided they could probably take the hit for a couple of years but they are saying enough’s enough. They can’t run their small business at the level of the patient rebates. They can’t pay for for their reception staff, they can’t pay the increasing costs of simple things like electricity and power and stationary if they accept the patient rebate as the total fee for seeing them.
Q: The Labor party says this election campaign is about saving Medicare. Do you agree?
Michael Gannon:
What we heard during the election campaign was an assertion there was a desire to privatise Medicare. I’ve seen no evidence of that, I’ve not heard a whisper that’s the case. What we can say is that the Labor party has stronger policies in areas like bulk billing, in areas like access to pathology and radiology services. For many people, their vote in this election will be on health, there are many areas where the Labor party has stronger policies.
Q: If Malcolm Turnbull wins the election, do you think people are aware they will have to pay $5 more for prescriptions from January next year and are you concerned that people may give up some of their medicines if they can’t afford them?
Michael Gannon:
We know that the neediest in our community will defer accessing care. We know that they will defer going to specialist appointments, having ultrasounds or x-rays, perhaps filling prescriptions. That’s our concern.
Mark Di Stefano from BuzzFeed has given the Coalition performance the blank space treatment. “The press gallery is being bussed around marginal seats, 24 hours from the election. When asked if Malcolm Turnbull will take questions, aides said “he’s done enough interviews today.”
Do you, the voters, think he’s done enough interviews today? It’s over to you guys now.
The Turnbull camp will be heading soon to a street walk in Burwood and that will be their last event for the day. It has the feel of minimum risk now, they’ve done their TV and radio interviews for the day. Now it’s one more interaction with the “real” public before election day tomorrow.
Now here is an absolutely fair critique you could make about Labor, if you are the government, on the subject of free trade:
-
Labor is susceptible to the influence of the trade union movement which is much more hostile to trade liberalisation than it was a decade ago.
-
Labor is in competition for votes with the Greens, and the Greens, like the unions, are hostile to trade liberalisation.
- That dynamic means that the Labor caucus is much more sensitive about trade than it was in the Hawke/Keating era.
- You can say beyond a shadow of a doubt that Labor is in danger of backsliding on trade liberalisation, but that’s not what the prime minister said.
- He said Labor opposed the China free trade deal, which is, as I’ve said, complete fiction.
Dear prime minister: you cannot call Bill Shorten out for telling lies during an election campaign if you are telling them yourself.
Updated
Complete fiction, part two
Just so you know I’m not telling you porkies on Labor and the China FTA, here is an excerpt form the statement issued at the time the major parties came to agreement on the trade deal. Look particularly at the paragraph I’ve marked in bold.
Andrew Robb:
The government is pleased to confirm that support has been secured from the opposition to ensure the passage through the parliament of implementing legislation for the landmark China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA).
This high quality agreement, with our biggest trading partner, presents enormous opportunities for Australia in the years and decades ahead in terms of supporting growth and job creation. In this country, we have enjoyed decades of bipartisan support for freer trade and through the agreement reached with Labor this tradition is now set to continue.
Our discussions with Labor were both constructive and held in good faith, and shadow minister for trade and investment Penny Wong and her staff deserve credit for the work they have done on behalf of the opposition.
Before ChAFTA can enter into force, Australia has to complete its necessary domestic processes and this includes the passage of the implementing customs tariff and rules-of-origin bills that are currently before the parliament. To ensure this occurs, the government has agreed to provide further clarity and comfort in regard to key issues raised by the opposition.
Crucially, the provisions that we have agreed to with Labor will not in any way change or contravene the binding commitments we have made to China through our concluded FTA negotiations. Nor will they in any way discriminate against our biggest trading partner.
Updated
Hi everyone. I’m travelling with the prime minister for the final two days of the campaign.
I have to be honest. There is no obvious point to this morning’s hustings visit. There’s one machine in this factory that packs and wraps Cenovis Krill Oil with a robotic arm. The crowd is 99% ring-ins. About 50 young Libs in blue T-shirts are cheering and clapping on cue.
No one from the general public is here to listen to the prime minister implore people to vote Liberal. Who’s he talking to? All a bit surreal.
The prime minister finished his speech and has been ushered away into a private room, through a crowd of journalist trying to ask him questions – but he didn’t say a word.
Updated
Destiny's handbrake
The prime minister winds up the pep talk now, with a new concept, destiny’s handbrake.
Malcolm Turnbull:
What will we get if we vote in sufficient numbers? We will get a stable Coalition majority government, delivering on our national economic plan, which was brought together in the budget, fully costed, fully funded, clearly explained and set out and already delivering.
The alternative – a vote for independents, vote for Greens, a vote for Labor – is a vote for instability, uncertainty, chaos, higher deficits, higher debts, higher taxes. Every single one of those puts a handbrake on growth, a handbrake on job creation, a handbrake holding back the destiny, the economic security, the prosperity of 24m Australians.
So tomorrow I ask every Australian to treat their vote for the House and for the Senate as though they are the votes which determine the future of our government, that determine the future of our nation. A clear choice: growth, jobs, stability, economic leadership. The alternative – uncertainty, chaos, higher debt, higher deficits, higher taxes, less investment, fewer jobs.
It’s a clear choice.
Updated
Truth the casualty of campaign war
The prime minister is speaking now in Sydney.
The truth is that we do live in the most exciting times in human history. We live in an era of economic change unprecedented in the speed and the scale at which it is transforming the world and it is being super charged by technology, by the internet above all else. It is being super charged by that and as a result we are seeing extraordinary growth.
Malcolm Turnbull goes on to say the Labor party opposed the free trade deal with China.
I have to remind you the Labor party oppose one of those export deals, that has created jobs across the country, particularly in regional Australia, they oppose the China and Australia free trade agreement.
Extraordinary. They stand in the way of those parts of our economic plan which are so important for growth!
This is a complete fiction.
What are the facts? Labor sought amendments to various elements of the China FTA that it had difficulty with, particularly labour standards – but Labor has not opposed the China FTA.
The trade union movement opposes the China FTA, not the Labor party. But truth is a casualty of campaign war in the final 48 hours of the campaign, evidently.
Back to Melbourne and the Greens event in Malvern, in the heart of Liberal Kelly O’Dwyer’s electorate.
Richard Di Natale:
Well, there has never been a more exciting time to be a Green. This is a party that is on the move. We have seen record numbers of members join the party, we’ve got volunteers around the country who are joining with us to take a stand for a more decent, more compassionate, more prosperous Australia.
Having wobbled this week on offshore processing in the context of a minority government negotiation with Labor, Di Natale bangs the drum today.
It’s the Greens that are saying let’s create jobs in the renewable economy, let’s save the reef by taking strong action on climate change, let’s stop locking up those young kids and families in those hell holes offshore and let’s transition Australia to a fairer, more compassionate, more prosperous place.
Back to Sydney and Bill Shorten.
When Australians set a direction, if we decide there’s a destination, if we decide there’s a goal which even looks a bit ambitious, where the naysayers come out and say we can’t afford this or we can’t do this or it’s never been done before, you know what?
When this nation decides to set its eyes on the prize, when we don’t take no for an answer, when we don’t let the naysayers, the conservatives and economic rationalists say “it can’t be done” and we decide actually we are a better place, that the nation we want to see in the mirror is one which includes people with disabilities and their families, if we say to parents who are worried that their child, their beautiful baby child at 12 months or 2 years, isn’t developing in the way which we hoped or expected – that, yes, you will get support.
If we say to parents with children on the autism spectrum that we will fund teachers’ aides at schools, if we say to people who want a job but get overlooked at interviews, we can give them positive support. If we say to people with disabilities there will be a package of support for them and their families, if we can say to ageing parents in their 80s and 90s, hanging on, it will be OK, this country will love your child in the manner in which you’ve loved your child – then this is a great country.
Updated
Meanwhile, in Melbourne. The Greens are pushing out into Coalition territory. Good morning to my colleague Mel Davey, who is on the hustings.
This morning @RichardDiNatale is in Higgins with candidate Jason Ball. @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/508KHrERIm
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) July 1, 2016
Bill Shorten:
There’s a lot of discussion at the moment about stability, what I say is you cannot have stability when literally millions of Australians are missing out.
'We live in two different Australias'
The Labor leader Bill Shorten is speaking an an event related to the national disability insurance scheme.
This country cannot be the great country we want it to be until we ensure that people with disabilities and their families and carers get a fair go. We live in two different Australias and it’s not fashionable to talk about equality of opportunity sometimes in elections but I want to talk about disability and opportunity.
We have a broken system in this country where our allocation of resources is done on a crisis basis, it’s inconsistent.
Updated
The Age’s political editor Michael Gordon uses another metric to point to a potentially interesting resolution on Saturday night.
Australians overwhelmingly expect Malcolm Turnbull to prevail in Saturday’s election, but appear determined to give him a nervous night and an unconvincing victory. The stunning disconnect between expectation and intention is the most remarkable feature of the final Fairfax Ipsos Election Poll: a narrow majority of voters intend to elect a Shorten government, but just 17% expect this to happen.
I shared the Australian Financial Review political editor Laura Tingle’s election summation column on Twitter last night, but it’s worth sharing here again. She and I are in similar territory on the disaffection wildcard, then she builds in the undecideds. Very hard to pick how this all shakes out if you don’t have access to the sorts of tracking polls that the major parties do during campaigns.
The prime minister is evidently confident enough to think he doesn’t need to do a final daily press conference.
Laura Tingle:
There has never seemed such a big gap between what the published polls tell us – a tight race and a hung parliament – and the overwhelming expectation of a now comfortable win for the Coalition. Some of this apparent disparity will be played out in the story of votes for independents and minor parties. But another layer in the complex story of the electorate lies in what is still a huge undecided vote: in published polls it is still hovering around 10% (double the more normal levels).
Updated
Politics Live regular Matt Davey, like me, is feeling his inner Seinfeld.
@murpharoo Oh dear... pic.twitter.com/JGiOE9ODnZ
— The Matt Hatter (@MattGlassDarkly) June 30, 2016
I have no pictures in this morning yet from the Turnbull campaign. Here’s Bill Shorten out and about in Martin Place for the Medicare rally.
No press conference for you
A staffer on the prime minister’s bus has told travelling reporters he will NOT do a press conference today. I’m sorry, but how arrogant is that?
No tax cut on July 1, folks
Just while we have a brief sanity break from the aural offensive let’s talk tax cuts. You’ll recall the Coalition in the budget, also known as The Plan, promised to give taxpayers earning over $80,000 a tax cut. If you’ve followed events closely, you’ll know that the government didn’t have time to legislate the tax cuts before sprinting in the direction of the polls. This seems to the untrained eye a small problem, given the tax cuts were due to kick in .. well .. today in fact.
But the government has given multiple assurances that it can fix this problem with a wand wave administratively. These assurances were given the day after the budget and on the day PEFO was released, when the Tax Office somewhat unhelpfully observed in the PEFO that the government could not fix the problem administratively, even if it was saying that it could. Don’t you worry about that, said the prime minister’s office, those tax cuts, they are coming when The Plan says. It’s All Good.
But my next door neighbour Shane Wright reports today the Tax Office is sticking to its guns. It’s Not All Good. The Plan has one tangible deviation. Here’s Shane: “The ATO last night told The West Australian that because the government had gone into a caretaker role and there was no legislation then it could not put the tax cut in place. The schedules it prepares in June every year, outlining to employers how much tax to withhold from their workers for the coming tax year, were based on “enacted law”. Those schedules precluded the planned tax cuts.”
The view in Sydney
Bill Shorten has given a stump speech at a ‘Save Medicare’ rally with deputy leader Tanya Plibersek at Martin Place in Sydney.
Bill Shorten:
It’s 24 hours away from the election - we still have 24 hours to ensure we can save Medicare. There is nothing more important than the health of our fellow Australians. The Labor party believes in the healthcare of all Australians, and that’s why we’re defending Medicare. Mr Turnbull does not want to talk about Medicare. He was caught out trying to privatise the Medicare payments system, the very lifeblood of the system. And he still persists in the face of a clear national mood to defend our Medicare system in freezing the rebates that are paid to GPs. A 6 year freeze will invariably mean bulk billing becomes a thing of the past in doctors surgeries around the country. Mr Turnbull is willing to find $50bn to give to big banks and large multinationals, and he will pay for it with an increase in the price of Medicine.
Shorten is an expert at pivoting off to things the government has ruled out (privatising the Medicare payments system) and onto health cuts that are real, such as the cut to bulk billing incentives in pathology and diagnostic imaging. He’s sensitive to the claims he’s overreached on claims the Liberals are privatising Medicare, which Jon Faine grilled him about before. Shorten says Malcolm Turnbull is “disappointing” and says that is a “universal reaction” from voters. “What has come into stark focus is you can either have Malcolm Turnbull or Medicare, but you can’t have both.”
Bill Shorten has moved on now to Neil Mitchell on 3AW.
Q: Will you run for the leadership if you lose the election?
I don’t intend to lose the election Neil.
Mitchell presses. Bill Shorten wonders if Malcolm Turnbull answered that question when he came on the program. He went close, Mitchell says. Shorten says he intends to win and says if he engages in post election speculation then he invites others to do so. He says he doesn’t believe in an honourable second place.
Mitchell wants to know who Shorten has spoken to about the CFA dispute in Victoria. Shorten is genially evasive about that. The Labor leader has spoken to plenty of people.
Mitchell wants to know what Labor’s super policy is. Shorten says he’s outlined it. No, Mitchell says, you’ve outlined revenue you’ll raise, I don’t know what you policy is. I don’t believe in making changes that are genuinely retrospective, Shorten says.
Q: Are you happy with the campaign?
I wouldn’t swap a single day in the last eight weeks.
Shorten makes a final appeal to the voters: I promise Labor won’t let you down. Neil Mitchell asks who is not being let down, him, the broadcaster, or the voters as a whole. Both, Shorten says, but mainly the voters. Mitchell chuckles at that one.
If you lose will you keep jogging?
Here’s the question of the Jon Faine interview with Bill Shorten. If you lose, will you keep jogging? (He will.)
Just while I keep an ear on Shorten, I should note that Malcolm Turnbull has penned a piece for Medium. Politicians in the US use Medium quite a lot for political communications. So far, not so much here.
Malcolm Turnbull:
In my maiden speech to parliament I said that I believed that politics is for people. And I believe this as much today as I did then. It is for the mothers that take up an extra shift at work so that the bills can be paid. It is for the shop owner who works late into the evening to keep his business thriving. It is for the university student that dreams of success and making her parents so proud. I haven’t spent my life working in politics. Lucy and I have spent most of our lives in business.
Updated
Pushing forward, the Labor leader Bill Shorten is on the Jon Faine program in Melbourne being belted from here to next week, which is what generally happens on the Faine program. Faine wants to know whether Shorten will negotiate in order to get his election promises through the parliament. The Labor leader says he will. Ha! Faine says. So everything’s up for grabs then! Er, no, Shorten says. “No, we will negotiate to get our legislative agenda through the parliament.”
The effect of disaffection
First of all thanks to Helen, that final breakfast burst of spruiking activity on the final working day of an election campaign is incredibly arduous, but she’s sprinted elegantly alongside the cycle since before the sun rose. Live blogging is incredibly hard work, and our objective on Politics Live is always to make it look easy, which is never is, so round of applause for Helen, who has delivered first-rate coverage on a day when undecided voters will be grappling with their decision.
Now good morning everyone and welcome to Friday, where the last batch of public opinion polls have poked the campaign with a cattle prod. I’ve been saying consistently throughout this contest I honestly don’t know who is going to win on Saturday, and the reason I don’t know is because I can’t accurately measure the scope and direction of voter disaffection, which is as much a player in this contest as either of the major parties. I know it’s out there, there are some ways to measure it, but the most accurate measure will happen when people finally cast their votes.
Disaffection is never good for incumbent governments, but given the polls have been more of less static throughout the campaign, Labor is not reaping the disaffection dividend as much as it could be, despite running a campaign with a strong focus on inclusion, unity of purpose, and rebuilding Australia’s social capital. Disaffection in this campaign is like a wave breaking in multiple directions: some Labor, some Greens, some Nick Xenophon, some others. This complicates the final resolution of the contest. The smart money is still on the Coalition (look at the betting markets, if bets can be accurately characterised as smart money), but there are so many moving parts its hard to know how the puzzle will come together on Saturday night.
So let’s approach the final day with same approach this Politics Live community (that’s you readers, and me, the narrator) always approaches big days in Australian politics: eyes wide open, scepticism dialled up, cynicism dialled down, heart engaged, mind engaged, calling out crap wherever we see it. No other way to approach Saturday night than in that state, in my view.
So let’s crack on. A reminder today’s comments thread is open for your business. If the thread’s too bracing for you, Mike Bowers and I are up and about on the twits – he’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo. (Mike is actually reclining in a pup tent at the moment down the front of parliament house before sprinting to Sydney to pick up the final push. Don’t ask why, perhaps just tune in to Insiders on Sunday morning.) If you only speak Facebook you can join my daily forum here. And if you want a behind-the-scenes look at the day and the campaign as a whole, give Mike a follow on Instagram. You can find him here.
One more sleep. Here comes Friday.
Katharine Murphy is up next. I’ll be in again tomorrow, starting a little later in the morning to bring you all the election day news, including key sausage sizzle updates. Below is a quick look at the front pages of today’s papers.
We are now in the final 24 hours.
For good measure on the last day before #ausvotes here are the main newspaper front pages together. #election2016 pic.twitter.com/GFc8NXi2gi
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 30, 2016
The Australian front page. Friday 1 July 2016. @australian #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/5lSna80Rvo
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 30, 2016
The Courier Mail front page. Friday 1 July 2016. @couriermail #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/jvAYqSiT1U
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 30, 2016
The Age front page. Friday 1 July 2016. @theage #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/ozmRqDt0xS
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 30, 2016
The Sydney Morning Herald front page. Friday 1 July 2016. @smh #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/GltTo7t1rE
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 30, 2016
The Herald Sun front page. Friday 1 July 2016. @theheraldsun #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/9czf4uqq7Q
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 30, 2016
The Canberra Times front page. Friday 1 July 2016. @canberratimes #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/U9RRzpUrwB
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 30, 2016
The Daily Telegraph front page. Friday 1 July 2016. @dailytelegraph #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/vDPEoZs0dV
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 30, 2016
A much needed break into some light relief.
Hey @corybernardi - is this the slippery slope of marriage equality you warned us about? pic.twitter.com/GzksP4321x
— Sam Dastyari (@samdastyari) June 30, 2016
Still with Turnbull on AM: How can you guarantee the costs of the GP rebate freeze won’t be passed on to patients?
“Bulk billing has never been higher... Medicare is absolutely guarantee.d We’ll be spending more money on Medicare every year. Every single element of Medicare services that is undertaken by government today will be undertaken by government in the future.”
Brissenden asks again.
“Doctors are free to charge patients as they wish, (“precisely, says Brissenden”) and they’re free to now. The fact of the matter is bulk billing has never been higher and if indexation was restored today it would add to the payment GPs get just under 60 cents. So the proposition that the failure to return indexation will result in a collapse of bulk billing is simply not true, and it’s not borne out by the evidence. The fact is Labor set up the freeze in 2013 and we’ve continued it simply because we want to be able to spend more of our health dollars in other areas such as bringing lifesaving drugs onto the PBS... and spending nearly $200m on additional mental health services, more Headspaces, and suicide prevention trials”.
What would be a good GDP figure and unemployment rate and what would be a parameter of your own success?
Our economic growth at 3.1% on the last measure is higher than any of the G7 countries, is well above the OECD average. Last calendar year over 300,000 new jobs were created... and much of that is occurring in regional Australia.
We are already making a transition from an economy that was fueled up by a mining and construction boom to one that is more diverse. A big part of that is supporting enterprise and entrepreneurship, a big part of that is supporting innovation, a big part of that is export deals, particularly the China-Australia free trade agreement.”
Brissenden: 3% growth and 3% unemployment, is that the bottom line?
“We are living in very uncertain global times in the global economy.”
There are opportunities (rising middle class in Asia) and risks (Brexit), says Turnbull, and the Coalition has an economic plan to deliver stable government.
Will Turnbull rule out a deal with Hanson?
For his eleventieth interview of the morning, Turnbull is now talking to Michael Brissenden on AM.
He’s spruiking these “times of extraordinary opportunity.”
“We have opened up some of the biggest markets in the world with our export trade deals. We’re promoting business and investment. We’re encouraging employment and strong employment growth, particularly for women and were seeing most of the jobs created last year were for women.”
He says Labor’s policies undermine investment and undermine employment growth.
You’re clearly going to be dealing with a difficult senate, Brissenden notes. Pauline Hanson has controversial ideas, and is looking successful. Will he rule out dealing with her?
“We’re encouraging every Australian to vote for the Liberal or Nationals candidate in the house and in the senate,” he says.
“The election is close and every Australian should treat that vote... as if that is the vote which determines the next government.”
Brissenden pushes.
“With great respect, Michael, you you don’t know who’s going to be in the senate and neither do I. There’s a lot of speculation about the senate but the Australian people will decide... and my focus is on them”.
Updated
Asked if he’s riding a wave of populist anti-establishment sentiment, like Brexit, Xenophon says “if political elites don’t listen to people there will be a backlash.”
“We strongly support immigration, we strongly support the asylum seeker intake being increased in orderly means, but people feel that free trade agreements haven’t delivered the benefits they were meant to deliver...I just think people feel disconnected and are sick of the sledging by the two major parties.”
Nick Xenophon says he thinks his team will do well and come second in a number of seats “but because Labor and Liberal are effectively exchanging preferences with a split ticket in a sense, that will make life more difficult.”
Based on polling the Nick Xenophon Team has a “fighting chance” at the seats of Mayo, Barker and Grey, Xenophon says. He says people feel they have been ignored in safe seats.
Wilkinson asks, of the 13 vacated seats considered to be safe for the Coalition, why has only one been given to a female candidate? Turnbull’s track record is plain, he says.
“There are more women in my Cabinet than in any Coalition Cabinet. The only Labor Cabinet that had, as I understand it, the same percentage of woman was Kevin Rudd’s very last Cabinet. I have increased it significantly the representation of woman in the ministry. I am very much a proud feminist and I encourage more women to join political parties, run for parliament and welcome and if they are elected absolutely welcome them into the parliament. And promote them into the ministry.”
I wasn’t able to watch the Today interview for a variety of technological reasons, and am relying on a transcript from a feed service which is sometimes hilariously inaccurate. Please shout if you see any horrendous errors here.
Turnbull has reaffirmed that Tony Abbott will not be given a cabinet position.
“The ministry that I take to this election is the ministry I will have after the election.”
Lisa Wilkinson asks if it’s not better to have Abbott inside the tent, so to speak.
The election is not about the personality of people. It is about the personality of 24m Australians. When I get out in the community what Australians are talking about is their families. The future of their families, their kids, their grandkids. That is what I’m focused on.
On a GST rise to 15%, Turnbull is forthright.
“We rejected it. We said why we rejected it. Because it would be inequitable. Seriously, we looked at it very carefully. We did not kick it into the long grass for political reasons. There will be no changes to the GST and we have explained why there won’t be.”
He is less forthright on the matter of bulk billing, as Wilkinson asks five times if he will guarantee no more cuts to it.
“The bulk billing is at an all-time high. We have kept the Medicare rebate where it is over the forward estimates. We have done that in order to be able to spend more money on health bring lifesaving drugs on the PBT, being able to increase your funding for front line mental health service like more Head Spaces and suicide prevention trials. What we are doing is making the health dollar go further. But we are absolutely committed to your high levels and growing levels of health funding and absolutely committed and guaranteeing Medicare.”
But no more cuts. Do you guarantee no more cuts to bulk billing?
“Lisa, there are no cuts to bulk billing. Bulk billing is growing.”
But as of today, as of July 1 there is no more bulk billing for blood tests and X-rays?
“With great respect that is not right. There is bulk billing is continuing, it is continuing right across the board.”
But not for blood tests or X-rays?
“The report that we have... Lisa, there is support for bulk billing from the doctors. Bulk billing from the doctors. Bulk billing has never been higher and bulk billing is continuing following the agreements that Susan Ley has reached with those particular specialists and consultations. Bulk billing is continue and in fact they are the highest levels of bulk billing in our history. That is a fact.”
Turnbull has just been on the Today show over on Nine. I’ll bring you some of it shortly, and I’ll try to avoid being repetitive after the Sunrise appearance.
Christopher Pyne has appeared on Today, and in very Pyne style has urged people not to vote for independents and minor parties, lest it “cast us back to the darkness that was” during the leadership of Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd.
Election material, care of Calla Wahlquist.
Labor/ACTU volunteers handing out fake Medicare cards at Flinders St Station. @heldavidson @murpharoo #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/1JD8Qi8qxC
— Calla Wahlquist (@callapilla) June 30, 2016
Shorten is up straight after the PM. He too is given 60 seconds for a final pitch and he too only needs 45. Again, you’ve heard it. Below are some interview highlights.
First question from Kochie - Turnbull has guaranteed no changes to Medicare. Are you calling him a liar?
“His policies contradict. It’s not me calling him a liar. He is not telling the truth here.”
You are calling him a liar.
“You can pick the name. He is not telling the Australians the truth about Medicare.”
“Mr Turnbull actual says that bulk billing has never been higher. A survey done by the royal Australian society of GPs said that only 73% are providing bulk billing. It’s on the critical list, it will get harder for people to see the doctor.”
Now to the economy. Kochie: Voters don’t think you will be a good economic manager but you have been on a spending spree in this campaign. The budget deficit will be blown out by $16 billion. That just seemed to be a stupid strategy by you. If voters don’t believe you why go out pork barrelling?
“The government announced all their official spending. The biggest single giveaway isn’t our defence of Medicare or properly funning schools and TAFE, the biggest spending item is Mr Turnbull handing away $50bn in tax cuts.”
“The reason they can say their numbers are better is because they are relying on zombie measures.”
Shorten is obviously campaigning on Medicare again today, and will appear at a rally in Martin Place after appearing on Sunrise, Paul Karp has informed me.
Later in the morning he’ll will visit a GP in Macarthur then go for a street walk in western Sydney marginals Barton and Banks.
The PM is on Sunrise, which is evidently giving each leader a 60 second pitch. He’s done it in 45. You’ve heard it before. Now to questions:
Are you home and hosed?
It’s a very close election. That’s why it’s critical Australians treat their vote as if that one vote is going to decide the next government.
It’s a clear choice, says Turnbull. Stable majority government, with more jobs, more growth, more opportunities. Or chaos, uncertainty, dysfunction, higher taxes, higher debt with Labor and the Greens.
How can a leader who deposed a first term leader promise stability?
As you can see the Coalition is united. We came together on your show in fact right after the budget. I sat down with you and Kochie and I said “This is our national economic plan. There it is. All set out, all together. This is what we are going to take to the Australian people.”
For every age right across the country, the diversity of growth, the diversity of employment and opportunities in these exciting, but uncertain times in the global economy, this is where you need a clear economic plan and strong majority government.
We would beg to say you weren’t united. Tony Abbott has said you are not focusing on the big issues.
The big issue in this election, Sam - I have been all around the country for eight weeks as you know, and the big issue is the economy, the big thing is how will the jobs be in the future? How can I get a better job?
Should you win tomorrow, you will have been elected by the people of course. You are governing in your own right. You will then be free of the deals you made to take over the leadership last September. Will we see the real Malcolm?
Here I am, Sam. I have been around for a long time. I came into politics at the age of 50 after a lifetime in business. I am not one of these lifetime politicians like MrShorten for example. He has spent all his life in the union movement or in parliament. I spent my life with Lucy working in business,starting businesses, creating jobs.I understand what makes the economy hum.
You may have noticed the lack of political advertising on television and radio has instead been replaced with an onslaught of media appearances and online, print and social media campaign ads.
The major parties spent close to $8m on broadcast advertising alone this time around, reports Amanda Meade, and the commercial TV lobby has labeled the broadcasting ban a joke as they miss out on advertising dollars during these final days.
If you’re only just tuning in to the election now, welcome! You’ve missed a really entertaining live blog.
Before you head to the polls tomorrow, my colleagues Nick Evershed and Paul Karp have kindly prepared something of a cheat sheet on how it all works.
It includes some pretty excellent graphics.
About one in 10 people are making their minds up as they walk into the polling booth, making today’s campaigning very important, Labor deputy leader Tanya Plibersek is telling NewsRadio.
“it is literally neck and neck and today will be a decisive day, tomorrow will be decisive day. We’re making sure people know on Saturday they can have Medicare or they can have Malcolm Turnbull but they can’t have both.”
In response to Turnbull’s recent comments that he thinks Labor would have romped to victory against an Abbott-led government, Plibersek laughs, and says “it’s very telling, Mr Turnbull prepositioning himself to do very badly in this poll, and sending a message to his troops that it could have been worse”.
The Victorian state government dispute with the CFA “hasn’t been a good thing” she concedes, but says most people can tell the difference between state and federal issues.
No one in the eastern states is allowed to complain about heading to the ballot box in the cold tomorrow.
#ICYMI: Antarctic expeditioners turn out to cast their votes https://t.co/4XQM3IcIn5 #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/98y8xXitpm
— ABC News (@abcnews) June 30, 2016
Turnbull and Shorten are doing a morning television blitz this morning. First up is Sunrise, which I’ll bring you shortly.
The major newspaper editorials are out today. We had the Sunday papers last weekend. AAP has done a quick round up, finding solid support for Turnbull and the Coalition.
News Corp Australia and Fairfax Media mastheads are supporting Turnbull, citing the need for stability - a key message the prime minister has been pushing since Britain voted to leave the EU.
“Given the choice between a coalition led by the socially progressive economic reformer Mr Turnbull, and a Shorten-led Labor party backed by reform-resistant unions, we support the election of a Turnbull government,” the Sydney Morning Herald said in its Friday edition.
Melbourne’s Herald Sun newspaper said while neither Turnbull nor Shorten had presented the “perfect vision” for Australia’s future, both had emerged as genuine leaders.
However, it said the electorate wanted and needed a period of stability.
“Labor has offered in parts a broadly credible alternative, but on balance Mr Turnbull and the coalition are a more coherent prescription in an era that demands experience, stability and certainty,” its editorial said.
The Adelaide Advertiser said the Turnbull government deserved to be returned, and warned South Australians to be careful about voting for the Nick Xenophon Team candidates.
“(Senator Xenophon) will seek to extract the best deal for SA but there are no guarantees his candidates will not splinter and add to another chaotic Senate or unstable minority government,” it said.
News Corp’s Geelong Advertiser, which houses the key marginal seat of Corangamite, backed a vote for the government.
“We concur with the mounting view in the electorate that a Turnbull government would be a safer pair of hands for the economy.”
Wrap it up. Please.
“Let’s think the unthinkable, let’s do the undoable. Let us prepare to grapple with the ineffable itself, and see if we may not eff it after all.” – Douglas Adams, being pretty optimistic about the election.
Good morning everyone! Can you believe we’re here? In a little over 24 hours the polling booths will open and you’ll cast your votes and the votes will be counted and the new government will be announced as ... hung?
Yes, after eight weeks of campaigning, it is an educated guess. A Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows the two-party-preferred choice has moved from 51-49 at the start to 50-50 today, with a hung parliament again looking possible, even though fewer than one in five voters think Labor will win. A significant 27% intend to vote for the Greens or an independent, the poll found. A Galaxy Newspoll put the Coalition just ahead at 51-49, with a probable (tight) victory.
The big picture
Sounds like a time to bring out the big guns. Enter stage right, immigration minister Peter Dutton, who has appeared on Sky News overnight to warn people about asylum seekers.
Dutton told the Bolt Report recent attacks overseas have made border security a key issue for Australians and urged people to vote wisely.
“They want to make sure that we know who’s coming to this country - they’ve seen what’s happened in Istanbul and in Brussels and in Paris,” he said.
Andrew Bolt asked Dutton if he was linking boat arrivals with terrorist attacks. No, but yes, said Dutton.
“No, I think people are seeing what’s happening in parts of Europe where some countries have lost control frankly of their borders and they don’t know who is crossing their borders. The reality is in our country some people did come across our border when Labor lost control of our borders. 50,000 people arrived on 800 boats, many people came without documents. Now that may have been ok 20 or 30 years ago, but in the modern age we need to know, whether people are coming by boat or by plane, who they are, and we need to establish their identities. We need to make sure of that because we need to keep our country safe.
After a bit of confusion the Greens have clarified they will not be negotiating on offshore processing, should there be a hung parliament. The detention centres on Nauru and Manus Island must close before the party does a deal with any party, Richard Di Natale said yesterday.
Figures submitted to the PNG supreme court show that almost 90% of detainees held in the Manus Island detention centre who have had their claim assessed were found to be refugees.
The claims of another 389 people are yet to be assessed, and one – a 22-year-old Rohingyan refugee detained for more than two-and-a-half years – has pleaded for Australia to “end this political game” and find resettlement for refugees in a safe country.
Whether people want to stop listening to scare campaigns or they’re just going on holidays tomorrow, a whopping 2.5m people (14%) have already voted.
Paul Daley has looked at the concerning fact that just 58% of eligible Indigenous people are enrolled.
For people who haven’t filled out their ballot yet, prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has come out to promise tax cuts from day one, according to the Australian.
Also in the Oz, there are questions around funding grants to road projects, as the paper reports 96% of the upgrades (and 88% of the funding) supported by the taxpayer-funded Infrastructure Investment Program are in Coalition electorates.
As many as 10 independent or micro-party candidates could find themselves in the Senate, the Daily Telegraph reports, including two of the more controversial – Derryn Hinch and Pauline Hanson.
And both leaders are already facing leadership speculation, because this is Australia and it’s been about five minutes.
On the campaign trail
Both leaders are in Sydney. Turnbull will spend much of today in the key electorate of Reid, held by Liberal Craig Laundy with 3.3%. He’ll be continuing his National Press Club push from yesterday, urging voters to back stability and choose his government’s economic plan.
Shorten is sprinting around nearby marginal seats today. He’s expected to hit Parramatta, Barton, Sydney, Macarthur and Banks.
“There is a clear choice on Saturday–- Medicare or Malcolm,” Shorten said.
“Mr Turnbull is destroying Medicare brick-by-brick.”
The campaign to watch
With but one day to go, let’s visit the PM’s seat of Wentworth. My colleague Michael Slezak has taken a look at the (obviously safe) electorate, where environmental activists are rubbing salt in Turnbull’s climate change induced wounds.
Groups from around the country have piled into Sydney’s glitzy eastern suburbs electorate, raising awareness of Turnbull’s current climate change policies, or lack thereof, and simultaneously trying to make Turnbull aware of his constituents’ views on climate change.
And another thing
Northern Territorians won’t be focusing much on the election today, preferring to go and set off some pyrotechnics at a park or beach instead. Today is Territory Day, the annual celebration of the jurisdiction gaining self governance which allows it to do things like keep fireworks legal (for one day).
Personally I’m wondering if 130,000 people letting off steam with some colourful explosions tonight will make them more forgiving at the ballot box tomorrow but I’m not sure how you could measure it.
And quite frankly that's how all Australians should approach the democratic process https://t.co/GQQA7c6huh
— Neda Vanovac (@nedavanovac) June 29, 2016
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