Night time politics summary
- Today was the day that the government doubled down on Labor, the last Monday of the campaign, the time when we get to the business end of the election. The doubling down was over Labor’s release of its costings on Sunday, held at the same time with the official Coalition campaign launch. On Sunday Morrison foreshadowed he would be in Canberra today and available to speak to the gallery. Which he was all day. He spoke to Ray Hadley and then held the full presser with finance minister Mathias Cormann. Their purpose was to say their own costings would be released tomorrow - being Tuesday. But while I’m here, I might as well tell you that we flushed Labor out.
- Following two costings press conferences, Labor has muddied waters on superannuation. Labor had been critical of the retrospective nature of the Coalition’s superannuation policy. Now Bowen has said: “We’ve expressed grave concern about the retrospective nature of one measure in particular, the $500,000 cap. That’s the one expressed the most concern about it. We want to sit down with the sector and work out the best way to proceed to raise the same amount of money.” So Labor doesn’t like it but has left the door ajar.
- And in case you are wondering how long Malcolm Turnbull will stick around, today he said: “I will be leading the government to the election in 2019 if I am returned as prime minister, leading the Coalition on July 2. You can note that down.” Except perhaps he should be saying that to the party room rather than reporters, given the party room is the one that has the power.
- The National party has put out a statement about its “tongue in cheek” advertisement against Tony Windsor, which depicts the New England electorate as a female ex-lover. Lyn Windsor is cranky and told National campaign committee how she was feeling. Windsor demanded an apology for his wife. Nats state director Nathan Quigley said it did not imply a romantic relationship and Windsor was suffering “faux outrage”, given he had his own attack ads.
Bill Shorten will give his leaders address to the National Press Club tomorrow.
The Coalition will release its costings.
Helen Davidson will be back with you tomorrow morning followed by the blog queen, Katharine Murphy.
Good night.
Just back to the independents before a final summary. I have just posted a story in which Tony Windsor demands an apology for a National party TV ad. The ad depicts a woman – New England – talking about an “affair” with Windsor.
Windsor’s wife, Lyn, took issue with the ad and rang the National party who told her the commercial wasn’t a vote winner for them.
But the NSW National party state director, Nathan Quigley, has described the Windsors’ offence as “faux”, saying the Windsor campaign has five “attack” ads compared with the National party’s one.
Here is Quigley:
The ‘Not This Time, Tony’ ad is clearly tongue in cheek and in no way does it seriously suggest that Tony Windsor is or has ever been in a romantic relationship with the character in the commercial. Any reasonable person can see that immediately.
“Every care was taken to make sure this was clear from the very start of the commercial – all text messages are a conversation between Tony Windsor and New England.
“The commercial never suggests Mr Windsor has been unfaithful to his wife – it does suggest he has been unfaithful to his electorate.”
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Paul Daley has written a profile on the former Palmer senator and now head of nascent political party under her own name, Jacqui Lambie. It is worth remembering that Lambie’s polling is strong and she may even get her running mate, the Devonport mayor, Steve Martin, up for Tasmania. This would put the Coalition’s tourism minister, Richard Colbeck, in trouble. He was dropped down the ticket in a political ambush by Abbott loyalist Eric Abetz.
Anyway, if you would like to know more about the Lambie appeal in the apple isle, read Daley.
She mentions her chief of staff – the exquisitely named, at least for a political spinner – Rob Messenger, who’s not in the car.
“He’d be rolling his eyes,” Lambie says. “He’d be saying, ‘The more you try and script her, the more you can’t bloody script her, and the more you try and script her, the more she goes off the damn script’. But what I’m saying is what I actually believe in and if I make mistakes, well I bloody well stand up and say so ... I say how my conscience is feeling. I can’t do it any other way ... and you know, I’ve got nothing to hide either.”
After winning her seat, some swiftly dismissed her (along with fellow PUP Glenn Lazarus and Motoring Enthusiast party senator Ricky Muir) as an unsophisticated parliamentary interloper and gauche populist. With her gravelly, amply projected voice, earthy language, penchant for blue eye shadow and items of canary yellow clothing, Lambie had come down from anywhere but central political casting.
She was compared, perhaps predictably, to Pauline Hanson.
“No one compares me to her any more, which is good,” Lambie insists. “I’m my own person.”
The beltway scoffed when, after just a couple of days in the job in mid-2014, she labelled Tony Abbott “a political psychopath” and, with an honesty that at once defines and exposes her to self-harm, said everyone got into federal politics dreaming of becoming PM and she was no bloody different.
Hello girlfriend. Lambie was in the building.
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Good afternoon peoples, on this the Monday afternoon of the last week of the election. I need to write that because I need to remind myself: five days to go.
As we are at the pointy end – there is some heavy advertising going on out west.
Liberals spending on maximum advertising for @MirabellaSophie in @bordermail for #indivotes pic.twitter.com/ciIqTUKeVz
— Gabrielle Chan (@gabriellechan) June 27, 2016
The Armidale Express.
Nats spending up on front pages #NewEnglandvotes newspapers for @Barnaby_Joyce . Getting to the pointy end now. pic.twitter.com/tXzc12ynVT
— Gabrielle Chan (@gabriellechan) June 27, 2016
Tony Windsor attracts his highest support in Armidale.
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To attend to a couple of errands I need to hand over to my colleague Gabrielle Chan for an hour or so – I’ll leave you in her capable hands. See you a bit later.
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Still out and about in Adelaide, the prime minister has committed $40m towards a grade separation that will reduce congestion at Oaklands Crossing.
The proposed upgrade will require funding from all levels of government. The Coalition has also committed $2m to undertake planning for the upgrade of Marion Road. From the media release: “The planning work will look at the grade separation of Marion Road from the intersection of Anzac Highway to Cross Road, grade separation of Marion Road from the tram line to Cross Road, and a tramline overpass of Marion Road and Cross Road.”
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Guardian poll of polls average 50.35% Coalition
With less than a week to go, let’s crunch the polling data.
For the past seven weeks, national polls have remained reasonably steady, with most bouncing around between 51-49 to the Coalition and 51-49 to Labor. The most recent – from Newspoll, Galaxy, Ipsos and ReachTel – have all put the national vote in the 49% to 51% range.
The Guardian Australia poll of polls is giving the Coalition an average of 50.35%. The Coalition would probably win on such a vote but it’s close enough that polling error could be enough to put Labor in front.
When you count up all [the] seats where Labor has appeared to be ahead or in an effective tie, you don’t quite get to enough seats to give Labor a majority but it’s enough to make the election very close.
So in the end the electorate-level polling largely matches the national picture. The Coalition is in the lead but not by much. There is a real chance of a hung parliament and Labor still has an outside chance of winning if the race breaks their way.
If you want more detail about this analysis, have a look here.
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Mike Bowers tells me Lucy Turnbull went missing from the hustings briefly before being located in a craft shop, where she did a spot of shopping for the grandchildren.
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Campaign this Monday
Let’s take stock.
Malcolm Turnbull is continuing to declare that only the Coalition can deliver stable government but has refused to answer questions about what he’ll do if he can’t pass his election agenda into law or how he would negotiate with the Nick Xenophon Team in the event the voters deliver a hung parliament. He’s also, somewhat rashly given the sensitivities in his own show, and ignoring the sum of recent history, declared if he wins on Saturday he will lead the Coalition throughout the next term.
Bill Shorten isn’t really engaging on the prime minister’s agenda of stability and the economy. He’s keeping up the messaging on defending Medicare and he’s also jumped on a new report showing systemic problems in the visa system. Shorten was pressed about Labor’s position on superannuation, which is now ambiguous, and also about the lack of a 10-year plan to fund hospitals. Shorten didn’t deliver compelling answers on either point.
Below the leader level, the respective economic spokespeople of the major parties are duking it out over costings after Labor revealed on Sunday it would increase the deficit by $16bn over the forward estimates.
And John Howard re-emerged to note he was right about pretty much everything: it was not xenophobic to want to control migration and defend sovereignty, the Brits probably got it right on Brexit, and the Coalition hadn’t to his ear ruled out doing more on industrial relations post election.
And so we go.
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Visas first.
Nick McKenzie and Richard Baker, the investigative team from the Age, report that crime syndicates and people smugglers “are involved in widespread rorting of Australia’s work and student visa programs, according to whistleblowers and a former top immigration official.
“The claims come as the immigration department is facing more than 100 allegations of corruption, including suggestions that some immigration officers may be supporting the rorting, a Fairfax Media and ABC 7.30 investigation can reveal.
“The immigration chief, Michael Pezzullo, has referred 132 cases of alleged corruption involving immigration officers to the under-resourced federal law enforcement watchdog in the past 12 months, more referrals than the watchdog has received in any year since its creation in 2006.
“The revelations point to a failure to deal with endemic crime in Australia’s visa system involving some licensed migration agents and education providers, and a thriving cash-for-visa black market.”
This is the story Bill Shorten was highlighting in his press conference this morning in Melbourne. More to come on 730 tonight.
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Rightio, that was brisk. Give me a second to consolidate and I’ll be back with the visa story you need, some pictures and a stocktake of the morning.
These questions relate to the fact the government is in caretaker. If you were with me earlier today you’ll know the prime minister has spoken to his counterpart in New Zealand and dialled up a bunch of regulatory briefings post Brexit turbulence. There would be an argument that all of this should have included the opposition.
Q: Will you release the instructions given to Apra and the financial regulators and so on regarding the Brexit plan?
Scott Morrison:
I’ve just outlined to you – I have just read to you exactly what we have asked them to do and that’s what we’re doing.
Q: The discussions with New Zealand – is that something that should have been discussed with Labor as well, or do you regard it as, as you said, something that’s just going to be a brief available to whoever forms the incoming government?
Scott Morrison:
It is a brief that will be available for the government that is able to be formed on Saturday.
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A question about what regulatory measures might be required to strengthen the system to cope with Brexit volatility given the government is seeking briefings in the middle of an election. Morrison doesn’t want to answer that specifically.
Q: Has the Coalition dumped its plan to return to a 1% surplus as a share of GDP?
Mathias Cormann:
The return to 1% surplus as a share of GDP will be done as soon as possible.
Q: John Howard says you haven’t ruled out further labour market deregulation. Are you planning further labour market deregulation after the election?
Scott Morrison:
I think the prime minister has made our position clear on that all the way through the election and I don’t intend to talk further on what he has said. I’m happy to endorse what the prime minister has said about it.
(Which on the substantial point, is nothing at all, just quietly.)
Q: In the launch speech yesterday it was largely about the economy and the national economic plan. He only once mentioned giving small- to medium-sized businesses a tax cut or the 10-year economic plan. What message do you think that gives to businesses?
Scott Morrison:
I really don’t think there’s any doubt anywhere about what our enterprise tax plan is and, more importantly, why we’re doing it and how that makes us different from our opponents in this election. What we’ve put forward in this election are ways to grow the economy. That’s what we’re about. We’re trying to grow the economy.
So, on the day after the election, if you are in a job, you will be more secure in that job if the Coalition is elected again. If you are running a small business or otherwise, your business will have greater support and greater room to grow and expand into the future under a Coalition government. If you are a household, you will have greater confidence in the economy in which you are deriving your living from as a result of the election of a Liberal/National Coalition government on Saturday.
These are the certainties that matter.
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Mandate theory makes a comeback
Q: There has been a lot of discussion about the measures that have been blocked in Senate. In the event that you win on Saturday, do you commit to keeping all of them in the May 2017 budget and in the budget after that and in the budget after that?
Scott Morrison:
That’s why we’re taking them all to the election. We’re going to an election on Saturday and I’m putting the entire budget to the Australian people. That has never been done before. We’re putting that to the Australian people and you would expect, if we were successful on Saturday, that we would obviously continue to back in the measures we’ve taken to the Australian people. That would be the basis upon which we would have been elected. The absolute basis.
Q: But if you win on Saturday, a majority in the Senate is not guaranteed, even if you do return to office, which means you would have to negotiate those measures with Labor and the Greens?
Scott Morrison:
Sure, and the fact that we’d taken the budget to an election and, if we were successful, we received the support of the Australian people, I think that is a pretty powerful argument.
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The first question I couldn’t quite hear but I think it was on stimulus.
Mathias Cormann clarifies the question he was asked this morning.
The question I was asked is whether we would push the deficit higher in the context of certain international events and what I pointed out and what I have pointed out at my doorstop this morning is if you look at our track record, the net impact of policy decisions that we’ve made as a government since becoming the government is an improvement to the budget bottom line and our commitment moving forward is that, with the things that we control – and that is policy decisions, decisions on the spending and on the revenue side of the budget – our commitment is to continue to improve the budget bottom line as a result of policy decisions.
The important point is that Labor is making deliberate decisions to deteriorate the budget bottom line. Labor is making policy decisions that leaves the budget bottom line $16.5bn worse off, which makes Australia less resilient to deal with future economic headwinds, which makes Australia less resilient to deal with the global shocks and uncertainty we have to deal with, which puts us in a less strong position to take advantage of huge opportunities.
That is the contrast.
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Coalition costings will land tomorrow
I’ll chase that visa story shortly but can’t right yet – we are into the next scheduled round of costings WWE.
Scott Morrison and Mathias Cormann first confirm they will unveil the Coalition’s costings tomorrow. Then they move to talking about flushing Labor out. Labor is deciding to deteriorate the budget and deteriorate the deficit wilfully as a result of policy measures, Morrison says.
In their most recent changes, what they have announced is they will adopt the savings measures that we’ve put forward, whether it is on superannuation or whether it’s, indeed, on efficiency dividends in the public service or things like that, but not adopt the policies that actually deliver the savings.
I mean, that is a whole new form of backflip!
(That is a reasonable assessment. It’s pretty innovative as costings tangos go: we’ll deliver the same savings or revenue envelope, but we won’t tell you how right now. That’s a new one on me.)
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Bill Shorten is asked about flag burning, would he ban it? The Labor leader says anyone who burns a flag is an idiot but he doesn’t see the need for a law banning flag burning.
In the last question, a reporter points out that the visa problems in the Fairfax/ABC story began on Labor’s watch.
Bill Shorten:
No, I don’t think that’s the case.
Reporters persist on hospital funding and on costings. On hospital funding, Shorten says there’s no doubt Labor’s offering on health is stronger than the Coalition’s even if Labor can’t restore the funding Tony Abbott cut from the health budget.
On costings he says the government needs to release theirs. He’s asked whether Labor’s higher deficits over the forward estimates puts the triple A credit rating in play? Complete rubbish, Shorten says. He says Labor is interested in slow and steady improvement, structural budget reform without smashing household budgets.
Good question.
Q: Tony Burke this morning talked up the benefit of 10-year costings and you said this election is about healthcare. Are you going to the election with a questionable bottom line since you’ve said nothing on on the funding beyond the four years of the budget, and have you prioritised schools over hospitals?
Bill Shorten doesn’t have a strong answer. He says he’s hopeful negotiations with the states will deliver productivity improvements that will return dollars to hospitals. He says the government hasn’t revealed its 10-year costings for hospitals. (This is true, but Labor is the one campaigning on universal healthcare.)
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Bill Shorten gets a number of questions about superannuation, which is understandable, because Labor’s position is now pretty confusing. Labor says it will keep the funding envelope nominated by the government with its changes but not necessarily the policies.
Bill Shorten:
When we form a government we will revisit these measures to see their workability, to see if they can be done. There’s plenty of people saying that these changes will be very hard to implement. One of them requires people to keep records for 10 years when in fact they don’t. The fact of the matter is that the best place for us to determine the truth of what the government’s finally said will be using the most senior public servants if or when we win the election.
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Q: Medicare is obviously a focus as we head to July 2. Do you think that voters believe your message considering the latest Newspoll has the Coalition ahead?
Bill Shorten:
I’m very confident that Australians are very concerned about the future of Medicare. I have to say that people, that Australians, wherever I go, want to be reassured that we will defend and save Medicare.
Q: Why is the Coalition now heading the newspaper poll?
Bill Shorten:
Your question assumes an election outcome which I don’t.
Q: Has Peter Dutton taken his eye off the ball here with what you’re talking about in favour of his laser-like focus always being on asylum seekers, and part B, isn’t this another reason why Labor should back a federal Icac?
(This is a Fairfax/ABC story about visa rorts which I’ll find for you soon.)
Bill Shorten:
Labor will not allow the government to sweep [away] this massive undermining of confidence in the integrity of our visa system, the fact that this Liberal government has handed control of our visa system to criminals and crooks. We believe that the government must make a full accounting. We’ll certainly see what further facts come to light in the next 12 and 24 hours.
We will not let this issue rest.
Australians are very concerned to make sure that Australian jobs are going to people who are properly here. This government cannot tell us right now as we speak who is here, what are the circumstances in which they’re here, are they doing what the visas say they’re meant to be doing, how many people have manipulated the system and got in under Australia’s guard and then we see a complete breakdown of the visa system.
This is a major crisis for the way we handle visas and the way we handle people coming to this country seeking to work. Full stop.
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He segues then to reports today about problems in the visa system.
Bill Shorten:
If the reports in today’s media are even half true, the Australian government has lost control of its visa system to the crooks and criminals.
Bill Shorten speaks to reporters
The Labor leader is now under way with his daily press conference. He’s starting on Medicare.
Bill Shorten:
You cannot be PM of this great country if you’re not prepared to prioritise the health care of Australians.
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If we cut through at one more level after that press conference, Malcolm Turnbull promised to lead for all of the next term if he wins, which is a promise outside his direct powers: leadership is a gift of the partyroom; and he is saying only the Coalition can deliver stability, when the Coalition has no idea whether or not it can deliver stability – that’s entirely within the hands of the voters and the parliament they deliver on 2 July. Contemporary politics. Heavily post fact, post truth. And politicians wonder why the voters reject the status quo.
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When the narration doesn't fit the facts
Stability as a narrative only works of course when pesky people don’t crowd round and pick obvious gaping holes in your argument. Here’s two bleedingly obvious holes in the argument. What if you can’t get your plan through the Senate (highly likely on current indications, but Turnbull says don’t you worry about that, people)? What if your Vote One strategy falls short and it’s you negotiating with the NXT and other independents on Sunday morning? (Talk to the hand, people.)
I warned you this week would be WWE.
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FINALLY! The prime minister gets a question about his own hung parliament scenario. Let the rejoicing start. Thank you, colleagues.
Q: You mention the possibility of a Xenophon-Labor-Greens alliance. Isn’t there a real possibility of a Liberal-National Xenophon alliance? How would you negotiate [in] a hung parliament with a Xenophon team and also other independents and minor parties?
Of course the prime minister doesn’t answer the question in any shape or form. He pretends that there is only one hung parliament scenario that magically doesn’t involve the Coalition. The alternative is all of the uncertainty, all of the chaos, of a Greens-Labor-Xenophon-Independent alliance, he says.
Complete bollocks of course.
Malcolm Turnbull:
We will form a Coalition majority government if the Australian people give us the support we need. That’s what we’re seeking because that is the only way Australia’s interests, vital national interests, can be protected at these times.
And with that, he terminates the press conference.
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One practical test of stability: don't you worry about that
Q: Obviously you’re probably quite happy with the polls this morning and they also show that potentially in the Senate we’ll see a lot of minor parties and independents having a place. You can’t really guarantee any of your measures also get through the Senate. Is this stability promise an empty one?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Can I just repeat what the treasurer said on AM this morning: when people start speculating what a Senate that hasn’t even been elected might do, you really are getting ahead of yourself.
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Turnbull rolls over the partyroom to declare he'll lead for two terms if he wins
Reporters open on stability too.
Q: One of your key themes is stability. Since 2010 Australians have continually seen prime ministers torn down by their own party. Given your message is stability I’m just wondering if you win the July 2 election whether you can give a guarantee that you will be leading the Coalition to the next election in 2019?
That, of course, is entirely in the hands of the Coalition partyroom, but Turnbull rolls over the top of that.
Malcolm Turnbull:
I will be leading the government to the election in 2019 if I am returned as prime minister, leading the Coalition on July 2. You can note that down.
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Malcolm Turnbull addresses reporters
The prime minister is beaming and pumping the hands. We are opening today with Stable Coalition Government – SGC, and a vote for uncertainty, basically everyone else. Uncertain, all of them. Everyone else in politics, unstable.
Malcolm Turnbull:
Let me say something about Brexit. There is a measure of stability returning to financial markets today, which is good. There remains considerable political uncertainty, as you all know, in the United Kingdom and in Europe. We are keeping a very, very close eye on that.
Turnbull runs through the list of actions the government is taking. Briefings, instructions. He says there will be impacts on free trade agreements, and he’s had a chat to the New Zealand prime minister, John Key. Incumbency being laid on here. The Man With a Plan: the Malcolm Turnbull Story.
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Before we get to the prime minister, from Mike Bowers, a tale of two Liberals: Christopher Pyne, looking comfortable and relaxed. Jamie Briggs, below, less so. Briggs has a big fight on in Mayo.
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The prime minister’s daily press conference is coming up very shortly.
Incidentally the Australian Electoral Commission says 1.6 million people have already voted and about 1.4m postal votes have been distributed as well.
This time last election campaign 775,000 people had voted.
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John Howard: top of the pops
Back to John Howard – pity the live streams crossed at that point.
To summarise:
- The former prime minister thought Brexit affirmed the wisdom of his old political adage – we decide who comes here and the circumstances in which they come.
- He thought the Coalition had not ruled out proceeding with more labour market deregulation after the election. (It’s quite true. Astonishingly from my 20-year-long perch, the Coalition has not unveiled an industrial relations policy this election, and if the ambiguity continues, anything could happen because there will be no promises to break.)
- He thought the voters were not waiting for Malcolm Turnbull with baseball bats because Australia had not been exposed to an acute challenge to its sovereignty and the middle class had not been smashed to the same degree that had occurred in the United States, ipso facto, a Turnbull victory on Saturday, because voters weren’t sullen or ropable.
- He confirmed he would vote no in the marriage equality plebiscite, should that go ahead, and he thought there should be protections for religious freedom over the course of the debate and beyond.
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Q: Just some more clarity on the superannuation policy, though. Does that mean you have moved away from your commitment for taxing earnings over $75,000 a year? What exactly is on the table after the election?
Chris Bowen:
Well, the contributions tax is one that we announced last April, the government has appropriated that. That is now bipartisan policy. Our earnings tax measure and the government’s $1.6m measure have some similarities to it, but there’s some complexities there that would need to be worked through.
We’ve expressed concern and reservations about the retrospective nature of the $500,000 cap which we out want to consult with the sector on.
Q: Just getting back to Brexit – doesn’t an unexpected event like that show how the 10-year costings you’ve put out are very hard to have any trust in? It’s such a long term, there will be a lot of unexpected events ...
Chris Bowen:
I will answer briefly and Tony will add, but what we’re talking about [is] the impact of government decisions. Us versus theirs. Now of course, as I said yesterday, over the next 10 years, there will be of course changes in the global economy, which will impact on Australia. But starting from the baseline of today, where we were in a significant deficit and a structural deficit, we will return to structural balance, which will enable then those changes to be better absorbed.
Tony Burke:
If you take the lazy path and never deliver structural change to the budget, then you are always held hostage to international events like that.
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Stimulus? Not necessary, says Bowen
Chris Bowen is asked about stimulus in the event of a Brexit-triggered global downturn. Would Labor stimulate the economy?
Chris Bowen:
Neither the government nor the opposition should be talking about, frankly, at this point, the need for some sort of emergency stimulus because there is no such need. There is no such need. And compared to, say, the collapse of Lehmans which was a huge shock to the system, the world has known for some time this referendum was coming. It was hoped until more recently that Britain would vote to remain, that is true, but nevertheless this has been factored into international discussions. And I do not see the need to contemplate the sorts of actions that you’re suggesting there.
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Chris Bowen gets a bunch of questions about Labor’s position on superannuation policy. Yesterday Labor said it would adopt the government’s funding envelope for superannuation reform without, necessarily, adopting the government’s policy, particularly measures that have retrospective effect.
Q: You may adopt the retrospectivity, the ones you have criticised?
Chris Bowen:
We’ve expressed grave concern about the retrospective nature of one measure in particular, the $500,000 dollar cap. That’s the one we’ve expressed most concern about. We want to sit down with the sector and work out the best way to proceed to raise the same amount of money.
Q: Don’t voters deserve to know the details of your policy before the election rather than after they vote?
Chris Bowen:
I think, with respect, we’ve outlined a more detailed policy platform than any opposition over the last 20 years or more. We’re very proud of that.
Q: Mr Bowen, you’ve had your policy out there for a long time. You’ve done a lot of consultation with the superannuation industry. Why are you now moving away from what was a very clearly defined position, also after heavily criticising government for changing their policy mid-term after an election, not getting a mandate, you’re now saying you’re going to an election without a clearly stated policy?
Chris Bowen:
With respect, that’s not right. We’ve outlined the policy. The government has said they will raise more than us through their policy. We’ve indicated, given the pressures on the budget, we’d raise the some amount of money. Some of the measures we have not expressed as much concern about. For example, I refer you to Dr Chalmers’ speech from a couple of weeks ago where he outlined in quite an amount of detail what was concerning us and what wasn’t. Most of the focus was on the $500,000 cap. Obviously we haven’t expressed that same degree of reservation about the $1.6m measure that is a different policy. So there are lots of moving parts here.
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John Howard is still going on about immigration on Sky. It’s not xenophobic, he says, to want to keep an eye on the flow of immigration.
(I’m having all kinds of 2000s flashbacks, just quietly.)
Back to the wrestling.
The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, and Labor’s finance spokesman, Tony Burke, are up and about for a fresh session of championship costings wrestling.
Chris Bowen:
And as of today, we are yet to see the Liberal party’s bottom line. As of today, we are yet to see the impact of the government’s commitments during this election campaign. Over four years or 10. We know that we won’t see them over 10. Scott Morrison does not trust the Australian people enough to come clean about the impact of his policies over the next decade. We’ve taken a different approach.
So when Scott Morrison and Mathias Cormann eventually get around to releasing their budget bottom line, it may well be Thursday, it may be Wednesday, but when they eventually get around to releasing their budget bottom line, we know – as Tony will go into in a few moments in more detail – we know it will rely on those fundamentally unfair measures [in] the 2014 budget which have been rejected by the parliament and the people.
Making unemployed people wait a month to receive Newstart. Reducing the ability of Australian pensioners who have heritage from overseas to take their pension when they visit other countries. We know those measures which have been rejected completely and utterly by the parliament, 16 separate measures, will be the fundamental building block of Scott Morrison’s fantasy budget projections.
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If the EU is to survive in the future it needs to be a looser association: John Howard
Former prime minister John Howard is on Sky News at the moment, talking about Brexit, which he attributes to British people being worried about sovereignty and insecure borders. Monetary union without fiscal union doesn’t work, Howard thinks.
John Howard:
I think we still live in a world of nation states.
He says if the EU is to endure in the future it needs to be a looser association.
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$297m ... for Woomera
The prime minister is speaking at Raytheon in Adelaide.
Malcolm Turnbull:
Today, I’m able to announce that we are awarding – this is a decision that was taken by government back in April, but has not previously been announced – that we have awarded a $297m contract to Raytheon for the remediation, the upgrade and the ongoing support of the Woomera test range.
(I have multiple wuts about this. A decision in April, not announced until now? What’s going on at Woomera?)
Malcolm Turnbull answers the latter part of my wuts. He says the remediation of the site will make it the most advanced test range in the world and the Americans will like it.
It will enable us to test and evaluate the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter’s performance, its ability to work and operate with other weapons systems. It will also be available to our allies, in particular the United States. It will become a very significant defence asset to benefit the Australian defence forces, Australian defence industry, and of course, our allies.
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Incidentally, the local financial markets lost 1% at the opening of trade today because of Brexit jitters, but seem to have bounced back.
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The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, is now at Swinburne Tafe.
.@billshortenmp is given a Swinburne TAFE jumper from the plumbing dept as he tries to woo youth vote #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/szRpAKPhr5
— Rosie Lewis (@rosieslewis) June 27, 2016
Shorten started the morning in Frankston.
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While I’ve got a minute, I know Helen mentioned Gabrielle Chan’s story this morning which details the reaction of some of the independents to the Coalition’s stability first narrative, but I think it’s worth repeating given the tone of today and given some of you will be coming and going from the coverage.
Nick Xenophon:
There is a disconnection between Australia’s political elites and people’s genuine concerns. I too am worried about Brexit but I don’t think it would happen if elites listened to grassroots concern with loss of sovereignty.
Andrew Wilkie:
It is misleading to say power-sharing parliament will lead to anarchy, it is arrogant to say voters are wrong to vote any other way than for the major parties, and it is disrespectful of [the] democratic system. What [the prime minister] is saying in essence is they have a right to unrestrained power and if anyone votes in any way other than Liberal or Labor they are acting improperly, which is remarkably arrogant.
We can see that arrogant and raise it.
The Australian reports that the Liberal frontbencher Steve Ciobo has told Sky News: “It is completely crazy and also exceptionally arrogant for any MP to completely ignore the views of the Australian people and to just do what they want to do.” This is not on the election; Ciobo is always on song on the stability argument. This is about the same-sex marriage plebiscite. Ciobo has taken a swipe at colleagues who think it’s OK to use the plebiscite as a mechanism for not getting reform done.
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Malcolm Turnbull is visiting the electorates of Adelaide and Hindmarsh in South Australia today. Both major parties are concerned about the strength of the NXT vote.
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The prime minister’s first event in Adelaide is obviously pooled this morning. A pooled report has been supplied:
Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has met officials of a defence software company hoping to win work on the nation’s next fleet of submarines. Cirrus will work in a soon-to-be-set-up submarine incubator in South Australia as it finesses its application for the work. Turnbull met the company at the offices of defence contracting firm Raytheon Australia. Raytheon is hoping to win the contract to install the combat systems in the new submarines. It is currently the combat system integrator for the Collins class submarines and the air warfare destroyer project. Turnbull, wife Lucy and industry minister Christopher Pyne were shown how Cirrus’s software would operate in a working submarine. The interface he was shown in the lab showed data about submarine range and weapons system controls.
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The foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, has been deployed to the central coast of NSW to launch the central coast jobs and growth plan, which looks like a compendium of previous commitments. Two very marginal Liberal-held seats are there: Dobell and Robertson. A local reporter notes this is Bishop’s third visit to the region.
Julie Bishop:
I urge the voters in these two electorates to vote for Lucy Wicks in Robertson and Karen McNamara in Dobell because they deliver for you.
Q: Heading into the final week of the campaign, the latest polls are putting the Coalition in a good position. How confident are you with six days to go?
Julie Bishop:
All elections are close. Of course one would prefer to be ahead in the polls than behind. But we don’t take any vote for granted, we don’t take any seat for granted.
Updated
Do it for your country
Scott Morrison quickly transitions from Newspoll triumph to stability and why you need to vote Coalition to make sure things are stable when we are all exposed to stiff global headwinds. Stable. Stable. Stable. Morrison says he’s had a chat over the weekend to the CEOs of the banks and to the RBA governor about Brexit. The markets are about to open.
Hadley thinks the stock market reaction to Brexit might be a bit hysterical. Morrison acknowledges the feverish reaction – that’s a consensus that’s out there. Volatility is one of the certainties, the treasurer says, but the fundamentals are sound.
Hadley is concerned that Rob Oakeshott might knock off the National in Cowper. This would be an unfathomable event, Hadley thinks. Morrison agrees. Any vote that is not a vote for the Liberal National coalition is a vote for instability, he says.
(Just let that bit of hyperbole sink in for a minute. Any vote.)
Tony Windsor gets a serve, too. Ray thinks there’s big story coming from the Australian’s Sharri Markson on Windsor. Morrison is a bit careful about that thunderclap. The news will happen as it does, he thinks.
Ray then shares a public service announcement:
A warning to people in Cowper. This could be the last day I talk to Scott Morrison as treasurer.
Ray hopes everyone will see sense and return the Coalition to government.
Scott Morrison hopes people will do it for the country:
I hope that’s certainly the case, I think that’s an important outcome for the country of all things.
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Ray Hadley is chuffed with this Newspoll.
Q: Well finally … finally you go to the lead! I know you say you take no notice of the polls but better to be 51 …
Scott Morrison:
Well obviously.
Updated
The prime minister has just done another phone-in on Adelaide radio, this time 5AA. Scott Morrison is coming up on 2GB.
While we are on social media communications, after the Liberal launch yesterday, Tony Abbott (who grimaced his way successfully through the affair) posted this picture on Instagram last night.
If you were with me yesterday for the live coverage of the Liberal launch, you’ll know I mentioned it was a triumph of planning/advancing for the Liberals to glue Abbott to John Howard’s side throughout the event. The two men entered the venue together (so it was impossible for anyone to compare the applause greeting Howard with the applause greeting Abbott – and for that matter the applause greeting Turnbull and Abbott, which given this was a gathering of the faithful could have gone either way: Abbott could have garnered more affirmation that the current prime minister, who could possibly predict … ). And the shout-out in the Turnbull speech lumped Abbott and Howard in the same applause bracket. All very carefully sequenced with the objective of getting everyone through a difficult day with their game faces on.
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Too cold for big hair and short shorts in Launceston.
A chilly but beautiful day in Launceston to kick off the last week of campaigning. The marathon becomes a sprint! pic.twitter.com/qgo8eXmXpI
— Andrew Nikolic (@andrewnikolic) June 26, 2016
The treasurer, Scott Morrison, is now inhaling Kieran Gilbert on Sky News. When will we see your costings, Gilbert wonders.
Scott Morrison:
Very soon.
Updated
The prime minister is in Adelaide this morning and is now talking to Triple M, throwing some shade at Nick Xenophon for his protectionism and thumping his stability theme. Everybody’s job will be more secure if you vote Coalition this weekend, Malcolm Turnbull tells the listeners. For some strange reason, the hosts don’t ask the prime minister why this would be the case.
The hosts are in fact, ebullient that “Big Mal” has called in this morning. So nice of him to do that. Given he’s been good enough to call, what does he think the result will be this weekend?
Malcolm Turnbull:
It’s in the hands of the Australian people and my message is very clear: this is not a time to experiment or lodge a protest vote.
Updated
Good morning and welcome to WWE
Thanks Helen. Hello everyone – welcome to Monday. If, like me, you’ve just listened to the treasurer, Scott Morrison, on the ABC’s AM program, you might need to retreat to bed with a scented wheat pack and lie down. Given the rapid-fire talking points and the sharp intakes of breath I feared for the safety of the broadcast microphone. I might check with the AM host, Michael Brissenden, later this morning to ensure the equipment wasn’t inhaled.
Morrison’s verbal tempo this morning tells you what you need to know as we join each other this morning: that the campaign in now in WWE territory. All sides this week will be looking for knockout blows. Big hair. Short shorts. Thwacks on the mat. Boings on the ropes. Go on, try and erase that mental image. I dare you. Today we have the residual debris of the costings argument which kicked off with yesterday’s mildly audacious and entirely self-interested decision by Labor to trot out its numbers in the shadow of the Coalition campaign launch.
The Coalition has woken up today to a tiny positive movement in the Newspoll which could mean something or nothing. Notwithstanding that fundamental unresolvable ambiguity, Morrison and the finance minister, Mathias Cormann, will be doing everything they can to hoist the shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, and Labor’s finance spokesman, Tony Burke, aloft and chuck them out of the ring. Bowen and Burke will be doing everything they can to stay on their feet and stay in the contest.
Labor would love the upset victory this weekend. That’s obvious. The prospect of the shock upset is keeping a lot of exhausted people hauling themselves on and off planes with a disposition approximating civility and keeping a bunch of other people who need a shower and a session in daylight working dutifully round the clock in campaign headquarters. But if that’s not going to happen, pushing back the Coalition’s victory to a not entirely convincing stagger over the line on Saturday will do as a consolation prize.
As for the Coalition, they will go for broke. Even if they have a nose in front right now, as Newspoll suggests, a nose in front won’t do for Malcolm Turnbull. In fact for him, nose in front is in many respects the worst-case scenario. It provides him no protection against his internal enemies. He needs a win and a decisive one. If the Coalition has, in fact, succeeded in bumping voters in its general direction (with an added bonus conferred by the Brexit event in the UK) it needs to bank every first preference vote this week, and then harvest some more.
So it’s going to be a close contact week, with a lot of shallow breathing from Scott Morrison. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Let’s crack on. A reminder today’s comments thread is open for your business. If the thread’s too bracing for you, Mike Bowers and I are up and about on the twits – he’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo. If you only speak Facebook you can join my daily forum here. And if you want a behind-the-scenes look at the day and the campaign as a whole, give Mike a follow on Instagram. You can find him here.
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Murph is in the building. Before I hand over the reins of the blog for the rest of today, let’s have a quick look at the front pages for today.
Until tomorrow morning, happy Monday everyone. We’re nearly there.
The Australian front page. Monday 27 June 2016. @australian #ausvotes #election2016 #euref #brexit pic.twitter.com/zms5yESDYy
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 26, 2016
The Sydney Morning Herald front page. Monday 27 June 2016. @smh #ausvotes #election2016 #euref #brexit pic.twitter.com/xsRgOhQ4WL
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 26, 2016
Guardian Australia front page. Monday 27 June 2016. @GuardianAus #ausvotes #election2016 #euref #brexit pic.twitter.com/FOHUZOPjrG
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 26, 2016
The Daily Telegraph front page. Monday 27 June 2016. @dailytelegraph #ausvotes #election2016 #euref #brexit pic.twitter.com/7fq8MfODOF
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 26, 2016
The Canberra Times front page. Monday 27 June 2016. @canberratimes #ausvotes #election2016 #euref #brexit pic.twitter.com/f4ANp6y2hu
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 26, 2016
Financial Review front page. Monday 27 June 2016. @financialreview #ausvotes #election2016 #euref #brexit pic.twitter.com/Gxe1Ma3h4i
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) June 26, 2016
The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, on AM: The next treasurer will be delivering a bigger deficit, no matter who it is.
A Labor government would get to surplus as its policies – costings for which were released yesterday – begin to pay off, he says.
Take negative gearing, for example. It only raises half a billion dollars in its first year, it raises $8bn a year by the end of the decade, but it grows every single year and starts to provide very big returns to the budget at about that time.
He says the Coalition’s corporate tax cut is a “fiscal ram raid” which won’t cost the budget very much initially but by the end of the decade will cost “$14bn a year”.
Future budgets will be affected by global uncertainty no matter who holds the reins, says Bowen, “but you’ve got to have the impact of the decisions, and it makes it even more important that the budget returns to structural balance by the sorts of tough decisions that Labor is prepared to make”.
Bowen says Scott Morrison is not prepared to deal with negative gearing and capital gains tax reform, and is “giving away $50bn” in corporate tax cuts.
He is now sidestepping a question on health funding: after hitting the Coalition hard for taking $57bn away from the states, Labor is only returning $2bn.
“The allegation just before was that we were spending too much, now you’re alleging that we’re not spending enough. We’ve made difficult decisions, but we will have a health commission to work those issues through with the states and territories.
“Health does very well under a Labor government.”
Bowen points to a promise to lift the MBS freeze, and commitments on the PBS.
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Scott Morrison is racing from airwave to airwave this morning. Now he’s over on ABC radio, hitting Labor’s deficit-then-surplus forecast from its costings released yesterday. The need for post-Brexit economic stability is the new theme of the Coalition’s campaign.
There is a difference between a 10-year measure and a 10-year costing process, says Morrison.
“Every single thing we’re doing in our budget is designed to attract investment and drive growth,” Morrison is telling Michael Brissenden over on AM.
Jacking up taxes doesn’t drive investment. Jacking up spending doesn’t drive investment. All that does is increase the deficit, which we know over the next four years, these very sensitive next four years, where you do have the issues in the UK, you do have the issues in Europe, you do have the issues in Asia, in Japan and in the US it continues to build – all of this is happening right now and Labor is talking about something 10 or 11 years from now.
Both sides are talking about 10 years from now, says Brissenden. And in the end it’s a matter of trust.
Exactly, says Morrison.
Finally, on the Coalition costings (which won’t be released today as there are still some announcements to come): the costings will be “within the envelope of what we announced in the budget. The budget position will not be any changed in a negative sense.”
Updated
Turnbull's attack on independents 'remarkably arrogant'
At yesterday’s Liberal launch Malcolm Turnbull urged the country not to “roll the dice” with a vote for independents. He specifically urged the electorate against giving their support to senators Jacqui Lambie, Nick Xenophon and Glenn Lazarus, or to the Senate candidate who will not quit, Pauline Hanson.
Lambie and Xenophon in particular are forming quite a threat, with polls predicting their respective running mates could also take extra seats of the established parties.
The independents have now hit back, as Gabrielle Chan reports. Here’s one of them:
The Tasmanian Denison MP, Andrew Wilkie, said Turnbull’s scare campaign against independents was blaming others when major parties should examine their own conduct to understand why voters were leaving them in droves.
“It is misleading to say power-sharing parliament will lead to anarchy, it is arrogant to say voters are wrong to vote any other way than for the major parties, and it is disrespectful of [the] democratic system,” Wilkie said.
“What he is saying in essence is they have a right to unrestrained power and if anyone votes in any way other than Liberal or Labor they are acting improperly, which is remarkably arrogant.
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John Hewson has told Radio National the major parties have “missed the point” on some issues but it’s now too late in the race to change.
He’s pointing to the “Xenophon factor” coming in, and says the worst outcome would be the Nick Xenophon Team holding the balance of power in both houses of a hung parliament and Pauline Hanson getting a Senate seat.
“Then where do we go? We would get a very difficult set of circumstances where neither side would be able to deliver a budget along the lines they would want to do.”
Hewson says the parties have largely ignored the will of the people in avoiding climate change and other “big structural challenges” like demographic change, within the context of which issues such as jobs and health need to be addressed.
They’ve have been swept aside for the sake of slogans, he says.
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Coalition costings will be announced “very soon”, says Morrison. But not today.
“We’ll make our announcements when we make out announcements.”
.@ScottMorrisonMP says he won't release the coalition's costings today, but will 'very soon' #ausvotes https://t.co/OqiOF0uEXs
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) June 26, 2016
Still on zombie cuts, the specific measures under discussion are: increasing the pension age to 70, a month-wait for the dole, and cuts to family payments. “These are not going to get through,” suggests host Kieran Gilbert.
Not so, says Morrison.
Increasing the pension age provides for the long-term sustainability of the pension system, wait-for-the-dole goes to the Path system and brings the program together, and family payment cuts “is actually paying for our childcare reform which Labor cannot pay for”, he says.
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Over on Sky News the treasurer, Scott Morrison, is getting a grilling on the economy, specifically about the so-called “zombie cuts” (unlegislated measures from the 2014 budget which have been blocked and Labor says will continue to be blocked, and therefore are dead but still sticking around – zombie).
Morrison doesn’t factor those in, and says Labor needs to be honest if it is going to continue with “budget sabotage”.
“We have a clear plan, we’re putting that to the Australian people. We’re putting our entire budget to the Australian people and we believe in those changes and those policies to get Australia on the right economic and fiscal footing.”
Morrison is disputing the term “zombie cuts”.
“[Labor] is saying to the Australian people: we will hold the budget hostage, we will not allow a government to actually go and put in place the measures that are necessary to get the finances and the government on the right track.”
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Guardian Australia’s photographer extraordinaire, Mike Bowers, was at the Liberal launch yesterday. Here’s a selection of his shots.
First, a carefully configured seating plan.
Turnbull acknowledges the crowd gathered at Olympic Park.
Kisses for the crowd...
... and for Lucy.
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The opposition finance spokesman, Tony Burke, is out on the back foot, defending Labor against Turnbull’s call for “stable government” among post-Brexit economic uncertainty.
“Of course the global economy is uncertain, and that will continue regardless of who wins on July 2,” Burke told Radio National this morning. “If you look at the impact of the elections both sides are taking, there’s a stark difference.”
Burke says Labor has “fair dinkum” led the debate on superannuation.
He denied it was hypocritical to claim the Coalition’s super changes were retrospective and side with the opponents of it, but then claim its savings on the Labor’s bottom line.
“What we’ve said is we want to raise the same amount of money as the government but with the resources of government and the resources of treasury, we’ll consult about a better way of applying that without the retrospective elements,” Burke said.
“We put our policies out last year and the government in a rushed move in the budget got it wrong. We are prepared to raise the same amount as the government, but we’re not prepared to rush to failure.”
Edit: I previously said it was Chris Bowen speaking to Radio National. It was, in fact, Tony Burke. Time for another coffee.
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The Greens also had their official national launch yesterday. My Melbourne-based colleague Melissa Davey attended.
“The Greens will be a real force in both houses of parliament,” the party leader, Richard Di Natale, said to applause.
His key message to the room was that voters were increasingly turning to the party because it was the “only party who can be trusted to stand up to vested interests”, reported Davey:
There were no new policy announcements at the launch, which was held while the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, launched his campaign in Sydney. The Greens outlined most of their plans in the previous weeks of the election campaign, including investing an extra $664m into Medicare, their clean energy plan to increase the renewable energy target to 90% by 2030, and increasing Australia’s intake of asylum seekers. The Greens commitments so far total $123bn.
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Yesterday was the last Sunday before the election, which meant the first round of newspaper endorsements. The endorsements are all very qualified, and there is a resounding lack of enthusiasm for either party. The editorials heavily focused on reasons not to vote for one party but below I’ve pulled out some of the reasons they say you should give the other your support.
The Sunday Telegraph (News Corp): Turnbull
His government is not perfect and its election campaign has been timid and lacking in policy conviction.
However, the Coalition is undeniably the stronger party on all of the measures that really matter to Australians: economic management, border protection, job creation and mental health.
The Sun Herald (Fairfax): Turnbull
Mr Turnbull has had barely nine months to set a stronger economic and fairer social path than his predecessor. That is not enough time to write him off.
We believe that if Mr Turnbull reconnects with his core values and keeps his promises, he deserves a chance to establish his own mandate. Australians need a leader they can trust to drive economic reform and build national consensus on social issues.
The Sunday Age (Fairfax): Shorten
There is a disturbing and growing gap between wealthy and disadvantaged schools. Labor has proposed to fund its education plan by increasing the excise on cigarettes and targeting multinational tax avoidance.
... Labor has risked a big-target campaign by presenting bold policies, and while the party is yet to resolve its vexed relationship with unions, Mr Shorten deserves the chance to govern.
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Good morning everyone and happy Monday. We are in the final run towards polling day, with but one week left. Who’d have thought, after 50 whole days, that we would get to this point?
“The first 10 million years were the worst, and the second 10 million years, they were the worst too. The third 10 million years I didn’t enjoy at all. After that I went into a bit of a decline” – Marvin the paranoid android, definitely not talking about the Australian election campaign.
Both major parties and the Greens have now officially launched their campaigns. Just in the nick of time.
While the Coalition event held yesterday didn’t exactly draw rave reviews, Malcolm Turnbull will nonetheless be buoyant this morning with the latest Newspoll showing his team pulling ahead to 51% over Labor on a two-party preferred basis.
Its primary vote also rose to 43%. The two-point bump brings it to a 14-week high.
Labor remained unchanged at 36% and the Greens dropped from 10% to 9%. The minor parties also dropped a point to 12%.
The Australian’s analysis is putting the move away from minor parties down to uncertainty after Brexit, the shockwaves of which are continuing with 11 Labour resignations from the shadow cabinet.
Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating improved slightly to a negative 14, while Bill Shorten’s improved to a negative 15.
I’ll be here to take us through to Katharine Murphy’s arrival at 8.30. Dive into the comments, or find me on Twitter @heldavidson.
The big picture
This week will undoubtedly be coloured by the fallout from Brexit. Turnbull spent much of his speech at the campaign launch devoted to the shock result and its potential economic impact.
Now is not the time to change government, he said. “The last thing we need is a parliament in disarray.”
His key messages are stability after the UK’s decision to exit the European Union and a return to Tony Abbott’s theme of a safe, secure Australia, writes Guardian Australia editor, Lenore Taylor.
Same-sex marriage didn’t get a single mention, and climate change appeared only briefly, as the PM completed his “transformation from progressive firebrand to ambassador for the conservative brand”, according to Fairfax’s Peter Hartcher.
The former Liberal leader John Hewson called the Coalition a “disgrace” for its lack of action of climate change. Appearing before 2,000 people at a rally near Turnbull’s home, Hewson said climate change should be the dominant campaign issue, but “short-term politicking” from both sides left targets that were inadequate and policies that were not going to meet those targets.
Immediately after the Liberal launch, Labor released its costings, getting it in with just six days to go but doing better than the Abbott opposition’s two-days-before-the-election effort.
The costings reveal the Labor plan will increase the deficit over four years to $101bn – $16.5bn more than the Coalition – but would return to surplus by 2020-21, the same time as the Coalition’s plan.
The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, also announced another $2bn worth of cuts, including removing the private health insurance rebate for “junk” insurance policies.
On the campaign trail
The PM is in South Australia today, visiting the electorates of Adelaide and Hindmarsh. Adelaide is a Labor seat, held by Kate Ellis with a 3.9% margin. Hindmarsh is a Liberal seat – but only by 1.9% – which Matt Williams has held since 2010. Turnbull will be focusing on the defence industry and related jobs, particularly in Adelaide.
The opposition leader will spend today in his home region of Victoria, visiting three electorates around Melbourne with the first stop in Dunkley. Bruce Billson has held the south-east Melbourne electorate for the Liberals since 1996, but as he’s retiring it is considered quite vulnerable. As well as continuing the Medicare push, Shorten will be campaigning to support the Labor candidate, Peta Murphy, a legal aid barrister.
The campaign you should be watching
My colleague in Queensland Joshua Robertson visited the seat of Petrie, the sunshine state’s equivalent of the NSW bellwether Eden-Monaro.
The country’s second most marginal seat is held by a tiny 0.5%, with the Liberal MP, Luke Howarth, in the spot since 2013.
Robertson met 17-year-old Zac, who comes from the crisis end of the youth unemployment problem.
In Petrie, youth unemployment has fallen from 18% to 14% since the Coalition’s Luke Howarth won the seat in 2013 by 871 votes (0.6%).
But it remains a persistent concern in a seat that both major parties regard as a must-win if they are to take government.
Petrie has been held by every government of the day since 1987.
Turnbull on his visit to Petrie with Howarth last month lauded the role of job network providers such as Help in getting young people into jobs.
But Zac is not the kind who could walk into a mainstream job network provider and just get with the program.
And another thing
Let’s stick with Brexit. It is rather a big deal.
The Guardian is continuing its around-the-clock coverage here, where it has just reported the 11th Labour resignation.
More than three million people have signed an online petition calling for a second vote. Some have called it a sign of the Remainers being sore losers, but then again the Google search results for “what happens if we leave the EU” spiked at 250% in the eight hours after the results came in, so maybe there is some genuine Regrexit.
+250% spike in "what happens if we leave the EU" in the past hourhttps://t.co/9b1d6Bsx6D
— GoogleTrends (@GoogleTrends) June 24, 2016
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