Night time political summary
That’s Monday, done and dusted.
What did we learn?
- That the health minister Sussan Ley would like to lift the Medicare rebate freeze but Mathias Cormann and Scott Morrison do not agree. Malcolm Turnbull thinks it will lift at some point. Just not sure when. Messy.
- Labor promised to nick $1bn from Perth’s Freightlink project - “a white elephant” - and give it to Perth’s Metronet public transport project. Malcolm Turnbull gave money for Eden’s port expansion and Merimbula’s airport. Hello Eden Monaro.
- Labor promised to look at the tax ruling that allows politicians to claim a tax break on a Canberra residence above the $273 a night travel allowance. Malcolm Turnbull said it is a job for the independent umpire. Scott Morrison said he would look at Labor’s proposal. We don’t think he was the independent umpire the PM was referring to.
- Ray Hadley said the Coalition’s superannuation changes which seek to cap tax free contributions could bring the government undone. That is, the rocks on which the Coalition would perish. He shook his metaphorical fist. Morrison remained unmoved.
- Liberal fundraising whiz Michael “Yabbers” Yabsley said he knew “in some cases” that property developers banned from donating a state level were directed to federal fundraising efforts. His comments will be expanded in full technicolor during Four Corners tonight on the ABC at 8.30pm.
Thanks to the brains trust, Paul Karp, Katharine Murphy and Gareth Hutchens. Mike Bowers, wherever you are, wonderful pictures.
Thanks for staying with us dear readers. See you on the morrow.
Australian Medical Association president, Brian Owler, has responded to Sussan Ley’s suggestion that “I want that freeze lifted as soon as possible but I appreciate Finance and Treasury aren’t allowing me to do it just yet.”
Owler told Guardian Australia:
The government hasn’t left the door open on reversing the Medicare indexation freeze and Ley’s statement shows it’s not health policy that’s running the decisions it’s finance and treasury. It’s the dollars deciding health policy, that’s been the way the whole way along. It’s clear they have no intention of lifting the freeze, you don’t extend it for two years in the budget if you’re working to lift it.
Updated
This is the tax ruling paragraph on the politicians entitlements and what members can claim, after taking into account their travel allowance.
328. A Member may choose to rent or buy a property rather than stay in a hotel or other commercial establishment when travelling. A deduction is allowable for expenses, that are not of a capital, private or domestic nature, in respect of such a property where:
(i) it is used by a Member for accommodation when he or she is undertaking work-related travel involving an overnight stay away from home; and
(ii) the property is not regarded as a second residence.
Such expenses include: lease payments; rent; interest on borrowings used for the acquisition of the property; rates; taxes; insurance; general maintenance of the building, plant and grounds. A deduction is also allowable for depreciation of plant used in connection with such a property.
Also worth noting, the sale of the property is - in most cases - capital gains tax free.
I wanna be your dog.
Lagotto Brando has to be the best name ever for a dog.
The Nats have the wombat trail, which follows the leader Barnaby Joyce. The Greens have the bandicoot trail. I confess I did not know this was a thing.
Greens leader Senator Richard Di Natale will visit Tamworth on Tuesday with the party’s (state) mining spokesman, Jeremy Buckingham. Naturally they are off to Breeza, site of the controversial Shenhua Watermark mine.
Then Di Natale will join Joyce and Labor’s rural affairs spokesman Joel Fitzgibbon in a debate at Goulburn High School at 7.30pm on Wednesday.
Updated
Journalist Derryn Hinch and his Justice party are running for the Senate in Victoria. Surely his prospects are not this gloomy.
Spotted while driving through Airport West. Pulled over to take this I promise... @gabriellechan pic.twitter.com/8rytCIxYz9
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) May 23, 2016
Updated
It’s the infrastructure, stoopid.
Updated
Some more pictures in earlier from Mike Bowers.
Bill Shorten, kid-whisperer.
Take a Bowers.
Shorten was asked: will you commit to giving WA a fairer deal on the GST carve-up and Mr McGowan, what do you think is a fair contribution?
This was the issue that Clive Palmer campaigned on so effectively at the last WA Senate re-run election after the ballot box stuff-up. Now Palmer has fizzled out, his senator Zhenya Dio Wang is batting on without much traction.
Shorten deadbats the question, talking about every other revenue measure rather than the GST proportion.
But McGowan has a go.
Currently we get 31 cents in the dollar, that’s not good enough. The only leader currently at Coag who was there when the original deal was signed is Colin Barnett. So we will continue to argue for a floor under which no state’s share can go and I think a consistent position from WA would be one refreshing, but secondly, a great change on the existing arrangement that Mr Barnett has put in place whereby he chops and changes every week.
Updated
Bill Shorten is up now, announcing $1bn towards the building of Perth Metronet, funded by cuts to federal commitments to Perth Freightlink.
Shorten is with Mark McGowan, WA Labor opposition leader.
This commitment of $1bn is far better spent on Metronet than the Perth FreightLink which is a waste of money and won’t solve the freight issues confronting our city. Infrastructure Australia found a couple of years ago by 2030, seven of the ten most congested roads inAustralia will be Perth. That is why we need to give people the opportunity to get out of their cars and use public transport.
Let them eat cake.
Jacob, 5 goes back for more cake during a visit to his home byBill Shorten @gabriellechan @GuardianAus #politicslive pic.twitter.com/AiNM6o8aby
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) May 23, 2016
Meanwhile in Merimbula...
The Prime Minister is inside the world's most secure Tourist Information Centre, Merimbula, NSW. #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/pqtKdp3L7I
— Nick Haggarty (@NickHaggarty) May 23, 2016
Lunchtime politics summary
Let’s just take stock. Today, this is what happened.
- The Newspoll shows Labor continues to lead on two-party-preferred basis.
- Labor has committed to examine the tax ruling that allows politicians to claim expenses of properties in Canberra after their $273 nightly travel allowance. The Liberals are split.
- The health minister, Sussan Ley, said she would like to lift the Medicare rebate freeze – as Labor has promised – but finance and treasury won’t let her. The treasurer said Ley was part of the cabinet that decided on the freeze. *whack*. The Liberals are split.
- Shock jock Ray Hadley warned Scott Morrison his attempts to make the superannuation system more fair could be the “rocks on which you will perish”. Those young people won’t vote for you, says Ray.
- Clive Palmer sees the writing on the wall and says he won’t run for the Senate in Queensland.
- Political donations are in the spotlight after former Liberal fundraiser Michael Yabsley told Four Corners he knew “in some cases” property developers were being asked to donate federally. Arthur Sinodinos says I still didn’t know.
- The prime minister joined the NSW premier, Mike Baird, on the far south coast of NSW to announce funding for the expansion of the port of Eden and the Merimbula airport. Both of these assets are in the bellwether seat of Eden Monaro, currently held by Liberal Peter Hendy on a margin of 2.9%.
Updated
Lucky number? Bill Shorten leaves a campaign family visit in Perth @gabriellechan @GuardianAus #politicslive pic.twitter.com/dtuqTXTDSx
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) May 23, 2016
Meanwhile, Mike Bowers is over at the Clarke household.
The Clarke family pic opp from both sides @gabriellechan @GuardianAus #politicslive pic.twitter.com/BKVSdQdjea
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) May 23, 2016
Updated
Shorten: disclose political donations over $1000
A journalist asked Bill Shorten about a story on the front page of The Age by Nick McKenzie and Richard Baker about slain gangland lawyer Joe Acquaro allegedly “cultivating” and “donating” to senior Liberal politicians.
Shorten carefully steps around The Age story to bring it back to the political donation system and the Free Enterprise Foundation, which will be subject to a Four Corners report tonight.
It goes to show is we need more transparency, we need more transparency in the way that money is raised for elections. I challenge Mr Turnbull now today to agree with Labor’s proposal that any donations over $1,000 should be disclosed. Transparency is the sunlight which clears away all the dark corners in terms of fundraising and Australians I think have a reasonable expectation that that is what should happen.
Shorten says pollie entitlement tax breaks are not fair
Back to Bill Shorten. He says he was unaware of the tax ruling that allows politicians to claim tax breaks on Canberra properties, after their per night travel allowance. Shorten has moved from yesterday’s statement that it was controlled by an independent tribunal. Today, Labor are looking at changing the tax ruling, not the travel allowance.
What I have asked Chris Bowen and my treasury team to do is to look at how we close down this ruling. I don’t think it’s fair and I make it very clear to Australians that where I don’t think something is fair, I will act on it.
Updated
Treasurer to health minister: You were in the room Sussan
When Scott Morrison was asked about this, he reminded Ley that she was part of the cabinet.
Q: Was that freeze at your direction, though?
It’s a government decision.
Q: What involvement did you have in it?
I’m the chairman of the [expenditure review committee].
Q: Doctors believe that rebates need to be lifted as well as Sussan Ley, why won’t you do it?
The government has made a decision on this of which the minister is obviously a part of.
Updated
Ley: I would like to lift the Medicare rebate freeze but treasury won't let me
Shorten is talking about an interview by Sussan Ley with Fran Kelly this morning. This is the exchange.
Kelly: The government is proud that bulk-billing is on the rise but aren’t you putting all that at risk with your decision to extend the Medicare rebate freeze until 2020 because doctors have been very clear about that. They will have to start charging as much as $20 upfront for every consultation. There goes bulk-billing.
Well I am surprised that a bulk-billing incentive that is worth about 60c per consultation now and maybe $2.50 by the end of the forecast period would cause additional payments of $20-25, says Ley.
Q: So you don’t believe the doctors when they say they will have to do that?
Well I think we have to be careful about what is actually going on here. We are not paying - 60c per consultation is not a huge amount, but I understand for doctors that the GP freeze has been difficult and I appreciate their working with us. I have said to doctors that I want that freeze lifted as soon as possible but I appreciate that finance and treasury aren’t allowing me to do it just yet.
Updated
Bill Shorten is doing a doorstop in Perth with his health spokesman Catherine King. He goes straight to health policy.
No less a person than Mr Turnbull’s own minister for health (Sussan Ley) has today said that she doesn’t support the policies of the government and instead says she’s been rolled by other people in the government.
Last week I spent a day or two in New England, where Tony Windsor is challenging the deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce for his old seat. He is holding a series of town hall meetings to discuss his platform, which revolves around climate change, Gonski education funding, the National Broadband Network, a federal corruption watchdog, land usage (in Shenhua and BHP territory) and water policy.
One of the issues which had a lot of resonance while I was there was the NBN, not just around connectivity but around the cost and speed of data. With no competition in the bush, Telstra data packages are a whole lot more expensive than the alternatives in metropolitan areas.
The NBN was part of Windsor (and Rob Oakeshott’s) agreement with Julia Gillard for the minority government in 2010. Windsor has spoken to his local paper, the Northern Daily Leader, about the timing of the raid on Stephen Conroy’s office last week.
Here is Windsor:
The government can’t deny the timing of the raid is ‘fortuitous’ as they work to convince people that their claims about their NBN are better than the original.
We need to know the facts about its costs and how it’s going in terms of its rollout timeframe. The current government promised it would be cheaper under their plan and quicker. It has never been about the cost, it has always been about the politics.
Windsor said regional Australians were being told they had to accept “the second-rate service of fibre to the node instead of fibre to the premises”.
I am suspicious of what this means for the release of information about the NBN, so that we all can be better informed about where our taxpayer dollars are being spent and who will benefit.
Windsor said NBN Co, wholly owned and controlled by the government, had a “vested interest in keeping bad news under wraps”.
Updated
The Glimmer Twins.
Palmer bows and exits the stage. In a personal sense.
He will not stand for the senate.
Clive Palmer's time as a federal politician has ended. Not recontesting Fairfax and won't seek a Senate seat. pic.twitter.com/dceLx4yDaj
— Katina Curtis (@katinacurtis) May 23, 2016
It is hard not to put people off from engaging with leaders when the whole media pack is in tow.
When the Shorten media drops by-just a regular suburban scene in Stratton @gabriellechan @GuardianAus #politicslive pic.twitter.com/NtaVavwGoQ
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) May 23, 2016
Bishop is campaigning in Lilley, seat of former treasurer, deputy prime minister Wayne Swan. She is asked whether the Coalition has a chance of knocking off Swan, who holds the margin by 1.3%. The Liberal candidate is David Kingston, an environmental engineer. The Greens Claire Ogden is the only other candidate at this stage. BTW, the last day for nominations by candidates is June 9.
Foreign minister Julie Bishop is campaigning in Queensland. She has been asked about a civil case on behalf of the MH17 victims, in which the lawyer involved said the Turnbull government was not doing enough to help the families.
Bishop has been involved in negotiations from the start. She says if the ongoing investigation finds certain parties need to be held to account, the government will ensure “a system is set up” to hold those parties to account.
Scott Morrison has been asked about Labor’s proposal to look at the tax ruling that allows politicians to claim tax concessions on properties while in Canberra, over and above the $273 per night travel allowance.
Yesterday Labor said it should be set by an independent process and I note the comments made today by Chris Bowen, and we’ll be in contact with his office, that may already have occurred so we can see exactly what he is proposing. And we’ll have a look at exactly what he is proposing.
This is in contrast to Malcolm Turnbull who said it was an independent process. End of story.
This would appear to be a difference of approach. Watch this space.
Superannuation and Scott: The rock on which you will perish
Ray Hadley has issued the treasurer with an ominous warning.
Ray on the budget super measures. "This could be the rock on which you perish." Morrison: Thanks for the feedback #ausvotes
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) May 22, 2016
Hadley is incensed that the rich will not be able to put large amounts into their superannuation after the government capped the amount. Gareth Hutchens explains:
At the moment, individuals can make non-concessional contributions to their super account up to $180,000 every year, but the government says that $180,000 cap is too generous. It says it has encouraged wealthy individuals to make huge contributions to their accounts for estate planning or tax minimisation purposes.
It wants to dramatically reduce that cap from $180,000 a year to $500,000 over someone’s lifetime, and to make the new cap apply from 3 May, the date of the budget.
Morrison says the average non-concessional contribution over seven years in total is $41,000.
We are talking about a very small group of people who are in a position to put in hundreds of thousands of dollars in after tax contributions on top of the $25,000 already.
The treasurer says it’s ok for wealthier people, but what about young people starting out?
All I’m saying to you at your own peril as a government unless you do something between now and July 2 on [this cap] ... this could be the rock on which you perish. If you moved the $500,000 [cap] to a million, you’d probably sway the hearts and minds of people who want to see you returned to power, they don’t want to deal with Bill Shorten, Chris Bowen or Tanya Plibersek, but you’re almost forcing their hand.
Just on the allowances. A friend of the blog has pointed out that the ruling on the travel allowances only allows expenses claimed if they exceed the per diem travel allowance.
Let me explain. The travel allowance is worth $273 per night. If a pollie stayed in Canberra for just sitting nights, that is worth about $20,000 a year. Of that, meals can be claimed if substantiated. For arguments sake, subtract $1000 for meals. Then, they claim on the property only if expenses exceed $19,000. A bit of fine print.
Turnbull says Labor’s commitment to change pollies allowances is a backflip.
What I’ve seen reference to something Mr Bowen said, it seems completely at odds with what Mr Shorten said yesterday but I can assure you that it is very important that the allowances and pay for that matter of politicians is handled independently and not set by politicians.
Turnbull is asked about the politician’s allowances. The Coalition will not move on the entitlements, says Turnbull, because arrangements are set by the independent remunerations tribunal.
He is asked about his own arrangements.
That’s the way the rule has operated for a very long time and I have certainly made those claims and I have conducted my affairs scrupulously in accordance with the rules that apply to all members and senators.
Health minister Sussan Ley has been a little softer on the freeze while Turnbull doesn’t sound like it is ending anytime soon.
Asked about the contrast, Turnbull says:
The reality is the freeze will end at some point. Clearly. The question is it will end when we judge it is affordable within the context of the health budget.
Turnbull says Shorten is trying to frighten people on the Medicare rebate freeze. This is the budget measures that extends the freeze on the rebate paid to doctors. Who are unhappy.
If the indexation were to be restored from 1 July, the increase in the benefit paid to doctors would be around 60 cents. By 2019-20, it would be $2.50. I’m not suggesting it isn’t a significant amount of money when you add it all up, but in terms of each consultation, 60 cents is 60 cents. What Mr Shorten says is that if the indexation is not unfrozen, consultations - patients will be paying $25 more per consultation. That is complete nonsense.
This is the commitment on infrastructure.
The $44 million Port of Eden expansion will enable the world’s largest cruise ships to dock on the NSW far south coast for the first time, providing direct access to thousands of international tourists and an important stopover between Sydney and Melbourne.
The project is expected to create 86 ongoing jobs, including in the tourism, hospitality, aquaculture and stevedoring sectors.
The $5.6m upgrade of Merimbula Airport will enable larger planes to regularly service the far south coast from interstate capitals, while leveraging new international flight routes from Canberra.
Malcolm Turnbull and NSW premier Mike Baird are speaking in Merimbula. They are spending money on infrastructure on the south coast.
But the first question is to Turnbull about whether he is hoping Baird’s popularity will rub off.
Baird does his best straight face. Mouth, don’t smile.
Q: Bill Shorten is ahead of you in the polls. Are you standing up with Mike Baird hoping some of his popularity rubs off on you?
We arecommitted to growing jobs andgrowth on the far South Coast.
Labor to move on politicians entitlements
Chris Bowen has just declared that Labor will do something about the generous tax breaks which allows politicians to “double dip” on allowances in Canberra.
Question: why does it take a news story for you to realise tax breaks for politicians don’t meet community standards at the moment?
This is a very valid issue. Bill Shorten and Labor believe community standards are important. Now that this has received the appropriate amount of ,if you like, scrutiny, it’s clear in Bill’s view and in Labor’s view this needs to change going forward. We will make that change. Believe it or not, members of parliament don’t sit around studying their entitlements. This is one which members of Parliament who have engaged in this have done nothing wrong on both sides. The finance minister has said he has done it,the prime minister may well have done it, they’ve done nothing wrong. They’ve complied with the rules but we have to make sure the rules are appropriate and members of parliament treated in the same way. That’s the process we will take.
Is Sam Dastyari being projected over the good people of Perth? Or is my mind playing tricks...
Dawn in Perth with bonus @samdastyari #DashCam reflection @gabriellechan @GuardianAus #politcslive pic.twitter.com/fvF0pF5ENs
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) May 22, 2016
You may have noticed the story yesterday by Samantha Maiden about the double dippers. These are the politicians who get nightly travel allowance for staying in Canberra, (we knew that one) as well as the capacity to claim the costs of owning a Canberra property such as interest, electricity and other costs. Essentially negative gearing with a travel allowance to boot. This is all legal and above board. Labor may nood
Hadley wants to know what Scott Morrison thinks about the double dippers on property and travel allowances. Morrison says:
- It is a tax ruling.
- He rents because he can’t afford to buy another house.
- Good luck to those who can afford it.
The Oz has outed five double dippers.
Jared Owens reports:
Joel Fitzgibbon, Mark Butler and Richard Marles — admitted yesterday to claiming both benefits, as did Finance Minister Mathias Cormann and Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm.
The treasurer, Scott Morrison, is speaking to Ray Hadley. ScoMo is riffing with Hadley about the dangers of a Labor government. The talkback king says he would be “filthy” if Labor wins because he would have to front Chris Bowen as treasurer.
Adam Bandt would be deputy treasurer, says ScoMo.
Sarah Hanson-Young would be running refugee policy.
Updated
Victorian Liberal president Michael Kroger is talking to Sky. He is not worried by the polls. This happens in elections. Even Mark Latham went up, says Kroger.
Opposition leaders popularity always goes up during an election campaign ... because they are out there looking prime ministerial handing out money all day long.
Updated
Vote early, vote often. TODAY IS THE LAST DAY TO ENROL!!
Guess where?
Everyone has their obsessions and mine is political donations and the arguments for a federal corruption watchdog.
Michael Yabsley is a former minister in John Fahey’s Coalition government way back in the 1990s. After he retired from politics, he followed the well-trodden path on both sides into lobbying, as well as fundraising for the Liberal party. He was the party’s honorary federal treasurer between 2008 and 2010.
He has spoken to Four Corners for what looks to be a cracking episode on the ABC tonight. We have to be a little bit careful here because we have only a few quotes from the ABC without the full context.
But the crux of Yabsley’s argument is that the political donations system is broken and it needs root and branch reform.
I believe this is now crunch time. You have the damage that has been done to the reputations of many, many individuals, to the reputations of many companies and the reputations of the major political parties.
He appears to suggest that due to the system, political parties are forced into arrangements which are not “acceptable”. (Remember donations from property developers were banned at a state level in NSW. As a result, in 2010 allegedly prohibited donations made it to a federal Liberal fundraising body Free Enterprise Foundation before being sent back to the state division.)
Yabsley tells Four Corners it was not acceptable.
Now looking back on it … those practices are not acceptable and should not have been acceptable in the past.
The ABC reports Yabsley was asked if he was aware at the time that donors who were prohibited from donating in New South Wales were being asked to do so through the FEF.
In a couple of cases, yes, and you know there we’re talking about property developers, owners of certain licensed premises. Yes, I don’t think it was a great secret about the fact that that was happening.
The ABC has reported:
When asked if the practice struck him as lawful, Yabsley replied:
It struck me as being something that had been happening over a long period of time, and there was no particular reason to suggest that it was unlawful in a way that was different with what had been done in the past.”
Now cabinet secretary Arthur Sinodinos, who was a NSW Liberal finance director at the time, has repeatedly denied he knew anything of the alleged funnelling of donations through the FEF. He told Four Corners:
I condemn any situation where people may have broken the law, absolutely. Whatever the situation, whether it is state elections, federal elections, whether it’s Labor party, Liberal party, whatever. And I certainly have never condoned or been involved in such activity.
This space needs to be watched.
Updated
Good morning. Has anyone seen Malcolm?
I only ask because the latest Newspoll shows the trend continuing for Labor, which on a two party preferred basis leads the Coalition by 51-49. The Coalition primary vote is stuck on 41%, with Labor on 36%, the Greens on 11% and minors and independents on 12%.
As Phillip Hudson reports, the “massive” approval rates enjoyed by Malcolm Turnbull in the early months after he replaced Tony Abbott last September have been wiped out.
He now has a net satisfaction rating on level pegging with Bill Shorten, that is minus 12 points. In my regional and rural sojourns over the last two weeks, voters are having a second look at Shorten. He looks comfortable in the maelstrom and is campaigning well. When I put that to a Liberal, he remained sanguine. But still confident.
Hudson asks the question, whether it is time to let “Malcolm be Malcolm”. All of which reminds us of the “real Julia”. Frustrated about missteps and stage management, Gillard declared in the 2010 campaign she would unleash “the real Julia”. (She since has called that declaration a mistake.)
The question remains, can he let his inner Malcolm out? Or perhaps, is there an inner Malcolm?
While Katharine Murphy and colleagues have been slogging away to bring you this blog, I have been lucky enough to be wandering the countryside at a medium jog. Voters have fairly consistently expressed their disappointment with Turnbull, the fact that he has not fulfilled their hopes for what he declared would be the “new politics”. He hasn’t done anything, they say. “Perhaps he really is just a show pony,” said one.
Just a reminder of what Turnbull said back then, in September 2015 as he announced his challenge.
We need a style of leadership that explains those challenges and opportunities ... and how to seize the opportunities. A style of leadership that respects the people’s intelligence, that explains these complex issues and then sets out the course of action we believe we should take and makes a case for it.
We need advocacy, not slogans. We need to respect the intelligence of the Australian people. Now if we continue with Mr Abbott as prime minister, it is clear enough what will happen. He will cease to be prime minister and he’ll be succeeded by Mr Shorten.
This election could well bell the cat. That is, Turnbull very astutely identified the problem. But could not follow through and fix the problem.
Thanks for joining me this morning as we roll into week three of the election campaign. Melissa Davey signing off and handing over to Canberra, where Gabrielle Chan will guide you through the rest of Monday, with pics and updates to come from Mike Bowers who is on the Shorten bus in Perth.
As mentioned, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal rating has slumped in the latest Newspoll, as Labor maintains a 51-49 two-party-preferred lead. Here’s political reporter Paul Karp’s report on the polls:
Turnbull’s satisfaction rationg sits at 38% and dissatisfaction at 50%, a massive deterioration since his poll numbers peaked in November, two months after he became prime minister.
Bill Shorten continues to gain popularity and close the gap on Turnbull as preferred prime minister.
In the past fortnight, Shorten’s approval has risen four points to 37%. With his disapproval at 49%, Shorten has a net satisfaction rating of minus 12%, now the same as Turnbull’s.
The two-party-preferred vote is steady compared with the previous Newspoll result released on 9 May. It implies a 4.5% swing to Labor, enough to win 23 seats and for Labor to form government, if the swing was uniform.
However, Turnbull maintains a lead as preferred prime minister, leading Shorten by 46% to 31%.
Voters also think the Coalition will win the July 2 election, with 44% rating the Coalition likely victors compared with one-quarter who think Labor will win. But the expectation of a Coalition win has slipped from 55% since the question was last asked in mid-March.
The improvement in Shorten’s popularity comes after Labor spent the first week campaigning on education and the second week on health. But Shorten has faced difficult questions about whether his candidates support Labor’s asylum seeker policies, including boat turn-backs.
Full story here. See you at 6am tomorrow.
Updated
Labor may change rules that allow politicians to claim all expenses on properties they own in Canberra as tax deductions, AAP reports.
Bill Shorten has instructed shadow treasurer Chris Bowen to look into the little-known tax ruling from 1999 that allows MPs to claim deductions for electricity, mortgage payments and renovations.
Labor frontbencher Jason Clare told the Seven Network the opposition would have more to say about the entitlement before the July 2 election.
On Sunday finance minister Mathias Cormann defended politicians receiving both a $273 a night travel allowance and tax deductions for mortgages and rents for properties in Canberra. He said the remuneration tribunal granted the travel allowance and the tax office allowed deductions for politicians’ accommodation expenses.
Federal political reporter Paul Karp writes that young voters who fail to get on the electoral roll, who don’t show up to vote, or who vote informally could sway the country’s 10 most marginal electorates:
Y Vote analysed the total number of wasted votes of electors or would-be electors aged 18 to 24 and found they outnumbered the winning margin, by several multiples, in the 10 tightest contests.
As the Australian Electoral Commission closes the rolls at 8pm on Monday, the analysis is a reminder for voters of all ages, especially young people voting for the first time, to enrol or update their enrolment.
Y Vote calculated wasted votes using AEC estimates that one quarter of Australians aged 18 to 24 were not enrolled. It added estimates of no-shows and informal votes in that age range, calculated by applying the electorate average to those voters.
According to Y Vote’s estimates, the number of wasted votes outnumbered the margins several times over in key Liberal marginals including Barton (5,139 wasted votes and a margin of 489), Dobell (5,394 with a margin of 1,166) and Reid (4,908 with a margin of 1,460).
The same was true of Labor-held marginals McEwen and Parramatta, and independent-held seats Indi and Fairfax.
Full story here.
Analysis shows 'wasted' youth votes enough to change election result in key marginals #auspol #ausvotes https://t.co/CYyMjC8ofZ
— Paul Karp (@Paul_Karp) May 22, 2016
Health minister Sussan Ley has described the Coalition’s Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme increases as “small and modest”. On Sunday, Shorten announced Labor would axe the Coalition’s cut to the pharmaceutical benefits scheme from the 2014 budget.
Speaking on Radio National this morning, Ley said:
It’s more modest additional payments and we’ll look at it again after the election. I’m supportive of a sustainable PBS. But obviously when we have a new Senate we will look to them about how they might pass this measure.”
She said patient were already better off due to generic medicines coming onto the market, which means medicines are costing less.
Shadow health minister, Catherine King, told Radio National, that it was a “nonsense argument” for the PBS increases:
What it’s basically doing is saying to patients you’ll be paying $5 more per script and 80 cents more for pensioners.
Updated
From AAP: Labor’s candidate for the seat of Brisbane has refused to take down campaign billboards featuring him wearing his army uniform.
The Courier Mail reports the department of defence has asked Pat O’Neill to remove the billboards because they violated a policy banning members using their uniforms for political purposes.
But O’Neill, who was a major in the army, resigned from the military this month, telling the paper he won’t take the signs down because he was entitled to talk about his 18 years in the army.
#Queensland #Labor candidate @pat_oneill ordered to remove billboards https://t.co/fxiRtVJC3I pic.twitter.com/snraOLoe7D
— The Courier-Mail (@couriermail) May 22, 2016
Turnbull and NSW premier Mike Baird will head to the state’s south coast this morning for two infrastructure announcements in the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro.
They will announce $5.6m to upgrade the Merimbula airport and a pledge of an extra $29 million for the port of Eden.
Shorten is at the opposite end of the country in Perth, where he will talk about health policy.
The Turnbull bus is rolling off, bound for the NSW South Coast and the seat of Eden-Monaro @abcnews pic.twitter.com/mAesT9kGef
— Frank Keany (@FJKeany) May 22, 2016
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One of the Liberal Party’s most senior former fundraisers said he knew that prohibited donations were being made to the party.
According to the ABC, in 2010 banned donations from property developers were channeled to the NSW Liberal Party via the so-called Free Enterprise Foundation. The Liberal Party’s former Treasurer Michael Yabsley has told tonight’s Four Corners that “root and branch reform” is needed.
Yabsley, who was honorary federal Liberal party treasurer from 2008 to 2010, confirmed the practice which resulted in the NSW Electoral Commission withholding $4.4m from the state Liberal party amid concerns about illegal donors.
“It all points to the absolute case to do away with the system of political fundraising that we currently have,” Yabsley told Four Corners.
Guardian Australia’s political reporter, Paul Karp, will have more on this soon.
It’s time to let Malcolm be Malcolm, according to Phillip Hudson for The Aus. He writes:
It is difficult to imagine that Malcolm Turnbull expected his approval rating would be a deadset draw with Bill Shorten when he decided on the strategy of an eight-week winter double-dissolution election campaign back in March.
But the trend is clear. After initial euphoria made Turnbull the most popular prime minister in six years, voters are not happy.
Turnbull is desperate for voters to realise they can’t have him as PM if they lodge a protest vote of disappointment because he hasn’t made Australia a gay green republic or they’re peeved with his superannuation hit on the top end in the budget.
At a similar point six years ago, Julia Gillard famously and foolishly announced she would unleash the “real Julia”.
Turnbull will make no such declarations but, after a fortnight on the campaign trail where he has looked awkwardly constrained,
it may be time to borrow from The West Wing’s Jed Bartlett and “let Turnbull be Turnbull”.
Labor Senator Sam Dastyari has appeared on ABC News 24 to talk polls. The latest Newspoll survey of 1709 voters taken from Thursday to Sunday shows Turnbull remains the preferred prime minister by 46% to Shorten’s 31%.
But Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating has fallen, and is now the same as for the opposition leader at -12 points. It’s encouraging, Dastyari says, but it’s still early days [so very early].
You don’t want to get ahead of yourself. It is still all within the margin of error. But look, we have had a really exciting two weeks. I think we have had a great two weeks for the start of the campaign.
Bill Shorten said on the weekend that he is enjoying it and he is quite enjoying the campaign and I think that is kind of showing in the numbers.
But why are voters still reluctant to embrace Shorten as a potential PM? Dastyari responds:
Hang on, I think you you have to look at the trend, and the trend has only been in one direction. Look, Malcolm Turnbull had a huge honeymoon period when he first became leader of the Liberal party and became the PM. And that is kind of consistently come right down. The reality is that the gloss has come off.
To the front pages, with the big news coming from the Australian. The latest Newspoll has revealed Turnbull’s support continues to fall as opposition leader Bill Shorten’s standing with voters hits a 12-month high.
The Australian front page. Monday 23 May 2016. @australian #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/JINrtss2tr
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) May 22, 2016
Meanwhile, the Fairfax papers report on leaked documents that allegedly show murdered Melbourne gangland lawyer Joe Acquaro may have spent two decades cultivating senior Liberal politicians.
The Age front page. Monday 23 May 2016. @theage #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/7EmxMn7S5F
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) May 22, 2016
The Canberra Times front page. Monday 23 May 2016. @canberratimes #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/mkc0UcLmz5
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) May 22, 2016
And in the Financial Review, Laura Tingle writes:
A Labor commitment to unwind another Coalition budget saving has taken the cost of major promises on schools and health over the next four years to at least $8 billion, raising the prospect that pledges to date could leave the budget worse off in the short term.
Financial Review front page. Monday 23 May 2016. @FinancialReview #ausvotes #election2016 #auspol pic.twitter.com/aJfRzQnkyQ
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) May 22, 2016
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Refugees dominated much of the election campaign last week, especially following immigration minister Peter Dutton’s comments to Sky News that:
For many people, they won’t be, you know, numerate or literate in their own language, let alone English. These people would be taking Australian jobs, there’s no question about that.
For many of them that would be unemployed, they would languish in unemployment queues and on Medicare and the rest of it so there would be huge cost and there’s no sense in sugar-coating that, that’s the scenario.
By “them”, he means refugees. But according to the results from an international poll given exclusively to Fairfax, one in five Australians would offer a temporary home for a refugee if they had a spare room, a higher proportion than in Britain, France, Italy, Japan and South Korea, but lower than in the US, Germany and Turkey.
In Australia, under-35s and the highly educated are the most likely age group to strongly agree that they would shelter a refugee at home along with the highly educated.
Those living in metropolitan areas are more likely to open their homes to a refugee than those in regional areas and women more likely than men. A bigger share of low-income earners strongly agreed that they would provide short-term accommodation to a refugee than middle and high-income earners.
Read the full report here.
Hoping this means compassion wins out over dogwhistle politics https://t.co/S5Rjv0KNjg
— Lesley Russell Wolpe (@LRussellWolpe) May 22, 2016
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Morrison attacks Labor's negative gearing policy
Scott Morrison has just sent out a statement which says Labor’s housing tax will see the wealthy continuing to negatively-gear existing housing stock while still gaining a “massive” tax advantage over low and middle income earners.
According to the treasurer, Labor’s negative gearing policy would see the wealthiest investors who earn over $100,000 continue to claim nearly 90% of their net rental losses against their investment income. Yet middle and low income earners only have enough investment income to claim less than one quarter, “essentially locking them out of investment in existing housing,” the statement says. It continues that an analysis of Australian Taxation Office data shows:
A typical individual using negative gearing in the top 10% of income earners has enough investment income to allow them to offset almost 90% of their net rental losses. By contrast individuals using negative gearing in the bottom 90% of income earners typical have enough investment income to allow them to offset less than a quarter of their net rental losses.”
Updated
Bill Shorten wasn’t willing to partake in dancing the “dab” on Sunday, preferring to watch these children do it instead. Though perhaps he’ll be busting out a few dabs after seeing the Newspoll this morning.
Do you know how to Dab? Bill Shorten learns some new moves in Drummoyne @GuardianAus pic.twitter.com/rANO7361J0
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) May 22, 2016
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Have you enrolled to vote? Updated your address? You have until 8pm to do so if you want to vote – and avoid a fine – on 2 July.
According to the ABC, the Australian Electoral Commission has said that one in two 18-year-olds and one in four 19-year-olds are yet to sign onto the roll.
Hundreds of thousands of young voters missing from electoral roll, AEC says https://t.co/uCUaIWZ7mT #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/j0th2Vt3Ni
— ABC News (@abcnews) May 22, 2016
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Health has emerged as a key focus for the campaign over the past couple of days. Here’s Guardian’s Australia’s Paul Karp with more about Labor’s announcement on Sunday that it would spend $3.6bn over 10 years to scrap proposed prescription medicine co-payments.
Under the government’s plan, blocked by the Senate, patients would pay a $5 co-payment and concession patients would pay an extra 80 cents on each prescription.
In Melbourne the health minister, Sussan Ley, announced a $7m policy to encourage clinical cancer trials for young people, including recruiting young people and examining age restrictions on trials.
Ley criticised Labor’s announcement, saying she saw only poorly targeted increases in spending that did not contain “a plan for listing medicines at all”.
She praised the Coalition’s policy to list all medicines costing a total of $20m or more recommended by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme advisory board, saying listing cancer drugs saved patients tens of thousands of dollars.
But Labor has claimed Ley was at odds with the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, about whether it would reconsider the medicine co-payment.
Ley said: “We will look at the policies after the election and I certainly recognise that, in the medicine space, there are difficult decisions to make about the payments for medicines.”
Updated
Bill Shorten's standing at a 12-month high
Good morning and welcome to week three of this never-ending election campaign. Bridie Jabour and Katherine Murphy have guided us through the first two weeks of the live blog – property declaration failures, office raids and all.
Melissa Davey with you here to get you through the next fortnight of early mornings. Gabrielle Chan will take over the reins from Canberra from 8.30am. It’s six more weeks until polling day. Welcome to quarter-time.
The big picture
Bill Shorten’s standing with voters has jumped to a 12-month high, the latest Newspoll taken exclusively for the Australian shows.
After the first two weeks of the election campaign Labor maintains a two-party-preferred lead of 51% to the Coalition’s 49%. But adding to the Coalition’s woes this morning is prime minister Malcolm Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating. The difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied with his performance is now the same as for the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, at -12 points, the Australian reports. This is quite the crash from +38 points six months ago.
The Newspoll also shows a two-party swing against the government of 4.5%. The Australian says:
If repeated on election day with a uniform swing, it would suggest about 23 Coalition seats would be lost and Mr Shorten would lead a Labor government with a narrow majority.
Voters still think the Coalition will win the July 2 election – although that expectation is also slipping. The survey of 1709 voters, taken from Thursday to yesterday, shows 44 per cent believe the Liberal and Nationals parties will win, a fall from 55 per cent when the question was last asked in mid-March. One-third of voters expect Labor will win, up from one-quarter.
For the first time, 50 per cent of voters are dissatisfied with Mr Turnbull’s performance as Prime Minister — a deterioration of 28 points since mid-November, when his ratings were highest. Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull has plunged from 60 per cent to 38 per cent over that period.
New Poll: @TurnbullMalcolm down, @billshortenmp up https://t.co/WMCQPxMPYK #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/Ri0uI6UTCH
— 7 News Perth (@7NewsPerth) May 22, 2016
Meanwhile Fairfax reports that secret documents leaked to its reporters reveal that slain Melbourne gangland lawyer Joe Acquaro may have donated to senior Liberal politicians.
The donations were made over a period of two decades, the report says. In 2008, Turnbull attended an event at which Acquaro was also present.
Mr Acquaro privately told associates the meeting was organised by Liberal MP Russell Broadbent and connected to Mr Acquaro’s political fundraising activities.
Mr Acquaro also previously sought the help of Mr Turnbull’s office in an ultimately unsuccessful effort to win a contract to supply environmentally friendly lightbulbs to government offices when Mr Turnbull was environment minister.
A spokesman for Mr Turnbull said, “The PM recalls attending a fundraiser lunch for Russell Broadbent in Melbourne in 2008 with a number of Mr Broadbent’s local supporters” but Mr Turnbull “does not recall the names of Mr Broadbent’s guests”. The Prime Minister also said he recalled a meeting to discuss energy-efficient lighting with a businessman and “other associates” whose names Mr Turnbull could not recall.
Broadbent told the Herald Sun he hadn’t done anything wrong by attending Liberal party fundraisers.
On the campaign trail
Labor will launch a campaign in the marginal government-held seats of Bass in Tasmania and Dawson in Queensland this week. Today, however, Shorten will focus on public transport in marginal WA seats. Turnbull will travel to Eden-Monaro.
And another thing(s)
Guardian Australia’s photographer-at-large, Mike Bowers, has taken us inside the Australia 2016 election campaign trail, compressing 48 long hours of behind-the-scenes lunacy into less than 60 seconds, as he follows Turnbull across the country. Take a look here.
Meanwhile, Labor is promising to keep the cost of prescription medicines down by officially ditching the Coalition’s “medicine tax”.
'Getting out there' @billshortenmp's strategy, @TurnbullMalcolm maintains 'sterile' approach https://t.co/Zm1Tbib1Pc pic.twitter.com/7jY26qPAmN
— ABC News (@abcnews) May 22, 2016
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