THE Hunter's export coal industry is set to finish 2021 in a strong position financially, with high prices and solid demand despite sustained global pressure to phase out coal as part of the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Around the world, government agencies and climate lobby groups are noting increased coal production - and continued investment in new coal-fired power stations - despite the global web of government pledges to reduce environmental impacts through policies targeting "net zero emissions by 2050".
Earlier this month China's State Grid Corporation said China would build as much as 150 gigawatts of new coal power before the end of 2025, bringing the coal-fired generation total to 1230 gigawatts. Australia, by comparison, has about 23 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity.
The Australian government's fourth Resources and Energy Quarterly for 2021 said the COP26 summit would likely have "mixed effects on Australian coal producers".
"The recent announcements place additional pressure on long-term prospects for coal demand," the Quarterly said.
"Announcements at the summit mean that China will now hold a more dominant share of the world's remaining prospective coal plants, but informal import restrictions on Australian coal mean that Australia is not well placed to capitalise.
"However, by deterring investment, it is likely that recent announcements could place coal prices on a higher footing. This provides a strong profit to existing holders of coal mines, who are expected to benefit from global policy pressures and finance obstacles which reduce the chances for future greenfield projects to be developed."
Australia is one of 30 full members of the International Energy Agency, while China is one of eight associate members.
The IEA predicts global coal consumption to hit a record 8 billion tonnes next year, with similar levels for 2023 and 2024.
Demand is up this year after falling 4.4 per cent in 2020 as COVID hit the world economy. Newcastle's 2021 coal exports should comfortably beat the 2020 total.
High quality Newcastle thermal coal for power stations was bringing about $US160 ($221) a tonne before Christmas, down from an October peak of $US259 ($358) but still more than double the $US59 ($81.60) a tonne spot price of a year ago.
The most recent quarterly report from one of Newcastle's biggest exporters, the China-backed Yancoal, quoted cash operating costs of $62 to $64 ($US44.80 to $US46.20) a tonne, not including royalties, showing how profitable the industry can be in the current pricing structure.
