It’s never very decorous to say I told you so. But when predictions are borne out to the letter, it would be equally smug not to mention it. Last week I questioned the talking up of the New Zealand Test team’s prospects in Australia, given a history of freezing on such tours. In Perth the two sides repeated the start of their 2015 series blow for blow, with Australia batting for most of two days before rattling through a feeble New Zealand response.
While the Kiwis found their fight later in the match, they all but conceded it at the start. Lockie Ferguson was erratic on debut, Tim Southee was unthreatening, and Australia rattled along at four runs an over. Catches began going down and only four wickets fell on the first day. Holding David Warner and Steve Smith to 43 apiece was a win, but Marnus Labuschagne got a life and made a hundred while Travis Head got away with a dicey half century.
As for the batting, facing Mitchell Starc and company under lights was always going to be fiendish. But New Zealand had prepared by playing daytime Tests against England at home, without a single pink-ball match to acclimatise. They received exactly the trouble they requested.
In the final analysis, New Zealand’s bowling was impressive after losing Ferguson to injury on the first day. Left-arm quick Neil Wagner ran in to deliver 60 overs of bouncers in an astonishing display of endurance and aggression. Tim Southee bowled 51, while all-rounder Colin de Grandhomme delivered 39 on the way back from injury himself. Previously he averaged 24 overs a match.
Between them they turned the screws through the second day of Australia’s first innings, then used an evening session to help bowl out Australia for 217 in the second innings, creating a few doubts for some home players and giving the visitors something to take into the next two matches. But it couldn’t affect the result given how poor the start had been.
The real disappointment for New Zealand looking back will be that their own depleted attack was still better equipped than Australia’s. Josh Hazlewood also fell to injury but only made it into his second over. Australia had no all-rounder, with only the dubious work of some specialist batsmen to fall back on. Yet facing a team of three bowlers, New Zealand couldn’t extend them to the point that life got difficult, facing only 55 overs in the first innings and 65 in the second.
As for Australia, the injury to Hazlewood was the only sore point. Though it does raise the question of whether any player has had more impact on a match when their involvement was limited to 1.2 overs. He didn’t face a ball in the first innings, didn’t bat in the second, and bowled eight deliveries, but one of them was his screaming inswinger to Jeet Raval that swerved as if piloted by an unseen hand into the opening batsman’s middle stump. It sent a shiver through New Zealand’s order and they never recovered.
The work of Starc and Nathan Lyon in his absence will be encouraging, with the pair collectively outplaying New Zealand’s key batsmen Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson in both innings among a bag of wickets. Pat Cummins also bowled outstandingly for more modest reward.
The topic of Hazlewood’s replacement for the Boxing Day Test has been a source of entertainment. Michael Neser and James Pattinson were in the Perth squad, with Pattinson best fitting the fast and furious bill that Australian selectors historically prefer. He played twice in this year’s Ashes and is finally available after years of injury.
But coach Justin Langer lobbed a cat into the coop by suggesting Peter Siddle. Plenty of commentators have written off Siddle at 35 years of age, but they’ve been talking about the end of his career since the 2015 Ashes. He has been taking wickets for Victoria at the MCG this season at an average of 15, and is a steadier bowler who might be a better swap for Hazlewood while Pattinson has more in common with Starc.
There’s also the small question of the pitch, which has been dire and dull at the MCG for a number of years now, then went too far the other way when curators juiced up a pitch for a state game with a lot of watering, and it bounced so erratically that the match was called off. If the curators are spooked then we could be back to a bore-draw surface.
And if that’s the case, the result in Perth will be even more significant, as will the opportunity let slip. In 2015, after being demolished in the first Test, New Zealand drew the second and narrowly lost the third. Despite competing they left with a 2-0 result. The 1985 triumph was built on Richard Hadlee and Martin Crowe delivering the first Test at the Gabba. New Zealanders know that series wins in Australia are hard to come by; that remains their only one. It’s even harder for a team that has slipped behind.
