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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
National
Helen Davidson

Australia's same-sex marriage postal survey: 61.6% yes, 38.4% no – as it happened

That’s where we’ll leave today’s rolling coverage of the historic same sex marriage survey.

It was a controversial, expensive, and often traumatic exercise which in the end confirmed Australians supported marriage equality in numbers similar to those found by repeated polling.

But it won. 61.6% of people who took part in the non-binding postal survey said Yes. The No campaign got 38.4% - lower than the 40% that former prime, Tony Abbott said would deliver a “moral victory”.

No campaign leader, Lyle Shelton, blamed the media and the “relentlessness” of the Yes campaigners.

Some MPs said they would still vote no in parliament, or would abstain, but 133 of the 150 federal electorates returned a majority support for marriage equality.

Malcolm Turnbull and George Brandis hope and expect marriage equality will be law by Christmas.

Senator James Paterson gave up on his controversial rival bill, revealed just a few days ago, conceding the cross-party bill proposed by Dean Smith had the support required.

The Smith bill has been formally introduced in the Senate and Christopher Knaus is continuing to blog over on our regular Politics Live blog. Tomorrow the Smith bill will be debated and all the key developments will be covered by Politics Live.

Tonight Australia’s LGBTIQ community and its family, friends, and supporters, will celebrate, or perhaps just sigh with relief.

More international congratulations - this time from New Zealand and Canada.

Senator James Paterson has given up on his much maligned bill for same-sex marriage, conceding there was more support for the one drafted by Dean Smith.

Paterson’s rival conservative marriage bill would have overridden already existing anti-discrimination laws to allow “religious freedoms” of refusing service to same-sex marriages.

Paterson said he was pleased with the result (he voted yes), and the parliament must now quickly pass legislation.

“The parliament must now quickly pass a bill to legalise same-sex marriage. It is clear the majority of senators believe my colleague Senator Dean Smith’s bill is where we should start,” he said.

“I will now work constructively with my parliamentary colleagues over the coming weeks on amendments to ensure that the strongest possible protections for the freedoms of all Australians are enshrined in the final legislation.”

Of course, there can now be amendments to the Smith bill, and each of the measures in the Paterson bill can be put up and considered one by one. But in the legislative fight, that’s round one for Liberal moderates.

Updated

Within hours of the announcement of the survey results, billboards have appeared at Canberra airport lobbying for fast action on the legislation.

Marriage equality billboards appeared in Canberra within hours of the survey vote results
Marriage equality billboards appeared in Canberra within hours of the survey vote results. Photograph: Equality Campaign
Marriage equality billboards appeared in Canberra within hours of the survey vote results
Billboards urge parliament to legislate same-sex marriage. Photograph: Equality Campaign

Updated

“I’ve fallen in love with my country all over again,” writes the Guardian’s David Marr on today’s result.

Marr was at Prince Alfred Park when the win for the yes side was announced. Read his piece on what it means here, and watch the moment he and his partner Sebastian Tesoriero heard that 61.6% number.

“For old men like me this is another step on a once-unimaginable journey. Sex was a crime when I made my first stumbling entry into the gay world. Even when those crimes were wiped from the books, so much complicated shame was left to be negotiated. The business of coming out was endless.

The smothering respectability of official Australia back then came back to sex. It was all about sex. But censorship collapsed. The press relaxed. Gays, lesbians, transsexuals and queers began to be accepted in public life.

The obvious became unremarkable. Australia became a better place. We could put our energies where they mattered. Today’s result is fresh proof we live in a wonderfully muddled, lively society that happily accepts all sorts of confusion and contradiction. We’re real, relaxed and alive.”

Updated

Federal MP for Robertson, Lucy Wicks, voted no in the survey but will support a bill in parliament.

The Australian public is fundamentally better than the no campaign gave it credit for, Junkee media’s managing editor has written.

Rob Stott, who has been a strong advocate for a yes vote, pulled no punches in his excoriation of the no campaign’s tactics. Here’s an excerpt:

The no campaign knew it had to change millions of minds if it was going to win this thing. And so on day one of the campaign it dispensed with the idea that this was ever about marriage. Instead, they had to make us feel fear.

In order to win, they were going to have to lie, distort, and misrepresent. They told us Australia’s social fabric would be torn apart if marriage equality became legal, that children would be harmed, and that people of faith would be persecuted. None of it was true, but that didn’t matter. Truth is the first casualty in war, and the no campaign wanted to run a holy war for the soul of the nation.

The lies were egregious and harmful. They called same-sex parents child abusers and said their children were a new Stolen Generation. They called us “fascists” and said we were “disordered”. They declined opportunities to disavow violence and intimidation, while doing everything they could to link every person acting badly on the yes side to the official campaign.

They said that a yes vote was a vote for compulsory radical gay sex education, and that equality meant an end to free speech. A little research proved many of their claims to be nonsense. They were petty, like when they tried to shut down a singer they disagreed with. And they told small lies, even about the size of their crowds at rallies. Sometimes their silence was most deafening of all – like when they declined to condemn a man who praised Hitler for murdering gays.

Updated

The attorney general, George Brandis, has told the Senate he couldn’t give a date for change to the Marriage Act, but he hoped and expected it would be before Christmas.

Updated

“This is a landmark victory for the many, many Australians who have campaigned for marriage equality,” says Jonathon Hunyor, the chief executive of the Public Interest Advocacy Centre, which ran an ultimately unsuccessful legal challenge against the survey.

“Australia has spoken, and the answer is a resounding yes, across every state and territory.

“The prime minister now needs to provide the leadership necessary to ensure that legislation passes quickly and decisively for marriage equality. The LGBTI community – and the many millions who voted yes – deserve nothing less.”

Hunyor called for the flat rejection of “any move to establish further grounds for discrimination against LGBTI Australians”.

“The people voted ‘yes’, not ‘yes – subject to further discrimination.”

Updated

Katharine Murphy has written a fantastic piece about Labor senator and Yes campaigner, Penny Wong, who had to appear front and centre this morning.

Labor’s Senate leader enters political battle with a suit of armour, always composed, always perfectly prepared; she deploys a Boudicca-like character which is both real and curated public projection, to deliver what needs to be delivered.

If the Wong temper flares, if the eyebrow lifts, it’s for a purpose, it’s choreography, not impulse. Impulse is something that happens behind closed doors, never in the professional sphere, which is about reason, preparation and calculation.

But one moment in Australian history required a pound of her flesh.

Read the full piece from Murphy, here:

The conservative Coalition MP, Kevin Andrews – who in the past has compared same sex relationships to his friendships with “cycling mates” – has reiterated calls for religious protections in legislation.

In calling for bakers and other service providers to be allowed to refuse service for same sex weddings, Andrews also said Islamic bakers should be able to refuse service to Jewish customers, and vice versa.

Andrews said he didn’t have a problem with the right of refusal based on beliefs, listing as examples: a gay baker refusing to make a cake for a straight wedding, a Christian refusing to bake for an Islamic celebration, or a Jewish baker denying a cake to an Islamic customer.

“In relation to marriage, that’s what we’re talking about,” he said. “This goes to fundamental religious beliefs and beliefs of conscience.”

Pushed on an example where an Islamic baker refused service to a couple of mixed religion, Andrews responded: “Fine, I don’t have a problem with that. I don’t have a problem at all.”

Updated

Ever the optimist, conservative senator Cory Bernardi has seen the result as a sign of what a great job the no campaign did.

In a video message he said he was disappointed with the result but was “heartened by the fact that 40% [sic] of Australians shared our concerns about the implications and consequences of redefining marriage”.

He warned that activists could be “emboldened now to roll out the abhorrent Safe Schools program through every school in the country”, and said his party was the only one in the country to campaign on the no vote. Campaigning would continue, he said.

“Whilst we’ve lost this battle, it’s only just begun.”

Updated

Another Labor MP, Linda Burney, has confirmed she will vote for same-sex marriage in parliament, despite a clear majority of her electorate voting against it.

Burney’s electorate is Barton in Sydney. It voted 56.4% against same-sex marriage.

Burney says she respects alternative views, but has already committed to voting in favour.

The One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson, has released a statement saying she and her two Senate colleagues “acknowledge the Australian public’s response to the same-sex marriage postal vote and await the government’s final private member’s bill”.

Setting aside that oxymoron (a private member’s bill is by definition not a government bill), it sounds like Hanson isn’t committing to pass anything.
Hanson:

“We also assure the millions of Australians who have legitimate concerns about this process that One Nation will take a balanced approach when considering the final legislation.

Any bill will be thoroughly examined before One Nation determines its position in the Senate.

My office will publicly release the bill on my social media sites and we look forward to your feedback.”

Updated

Everyone is mining through the results data finding interesting stats (but remember correlation =/= causation).

If you want to explore the data yourself, Nick Evershed has put together this interactive (with bonus digital confetti) of the electorate breakdown.

The resources and northern Australia minister, Matt Canavan, one of the most senior no campaigners in the government, has congratulated the yes side on its win.

On ABC News24 Canavan committed to respect the result – but it sounds like he will abstain rather than wave a bill through.

Canavan:

“I’ve always said that I will respect the wishes of the Queensland electorate that I represent, so I will be not opposing a same-sex marriage bill ...

I’ve also said always, too, that I won’t support a bill that diminishes fundamental human rights ...

I don’t think the protections in the Dean Smith bill are adequate, myself.

Canavan said the postal survey was not a vindication or rejection or any particular bill. So there’s room there to insist on the James Paterson bill and if it is not supported to take bat and ball and go home.

Updated

Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has said she’s pleased with the yes vote nationally and in Queensland.

Campaigning in Proserpine for the state election, she said:

I am incredibly proud that we live in a progressive dynamic nation. Today means so much for so many people. It is very hard to be able to express it into words, but honestly, this is a great day. This is where we recognise that love is love. That we recognise that many families out there can now make that commitment in front of family and friends. I have friends who have had to fly to New Zealand to get married. That is not the kind of Australia that I want. I think today is a fantastic day.

Palaszczuk said legislation should pass federal parliament as soon as possible, calling for Malcolm Turnbull to introduce the Dean Smith bill and Bill Shorten to second it.

Australians would embrace the decision.

When it comes to issues such as catering and cakes and receptions and whatever – I think people are going to be lining up to make cakes and I’ll tell you what, I am not the best cook there is, but I am happy to bake a cake. There are anti-discrimination laws that should be abided by and it is absolutely imperative now that this decision has been made that everyone respects the decision, because we believe in equality.

The opposition leader, Tim Nicholls, focused on religious freedoms when asked about the result.

I think all businesses will make their own decisions in relation to who they want to provide services for and it should be over to them to make those calls.

Updated

Ian Thorpe who was at a party in Sydney, described the moment he realised the yes vote had won.

“Firstly, talk about stalling,” he said. “We’ve waited long enough on this issue, but then to have to wait as the Australia statistician was reading the results.

“But, the odd thing was that they read out the number, not the percentage, so I was like working out in my head what percentage that was and then all of a sudden realising, no, hold on, that’s more than 60%, for me, it was just overwhelming. It’s an overwhelming victory for the yes campaign and it means there’s no excuses for the politicians.”

He said waking up on the day of the vote felt the same as the morning of a big swimming competition.

“Thinking that everything was going to go well, but also having that unknown,” he said.

“Just the butterflies. When I went out this morning I couldn’t tell if Sydney looked beautiful or if it looked really ugly.”

Updated

Crowds at the various capital city parties erupted when the result was read out – even in Perth where it was a very early 7am, and Adelaide where it was pouring with rain.

Sydney:

Brisbane:

Adelaide:

Melbourne:

Darwin:

Updated

Let's hear it for the teens

18- and 19-year-olds really came to the party, with 81.1% of women and 75.1% of men in that age group participating in the survey, doing far better than anyone else under 40.

The only age demographics where a higher proportion of men than women participated was in the over 70s. Those in the 70 to 74 age bracket were the most likely to participate, and 25 to 29 the least.

Note, these are participation stats only – we don’t have results by age or gender because of the anonymous nature of the survey.

Same sex marriage survey participation rates by age and gender.

Updated

I posted earlier that George Christensen said he will not vote for the Dean Smith bill, and instead would abstain.

It looks like Andrew Hastie is taking the same route, according to Fairfax.

Both Hastie and Christensen’s electorates voted yes, and while Hastie had indicated to the ABC that he would likely abstain, Christensen said he would follow his electorate’s result.

Labor’s Tanya Plibersek has urged action on legislating for same sex marriage, saying Australian people will not tolerate people wasting time and money “delaying the inevitable”.

Andrew Leigh says the survey result confirmed what poll after poll had said.

“Australians want marriage equality. We didn’t need to spend millions of dollars to find out that 62% of Australians and 74% of Canberrans want same-sex couples to enjoy the same rights as other Australians,” he says.

“The process of this survey has been damaging to the mental health of many gay and lesbian Australians. We’ve seen an increase in the number of calls for lines such as Reach Out and QLife. That didn’t need to happen.

“I know opponents of marriage equality are now looking for every possible blocking tactic. Having lost the survey, they now are wanting to write the law or to delay the process. We just can’t let that happen. Australians will take a very dim view of their parliament if we go to Christmas without same-sex marriage being the law of the land.”

Updated

Tony Abbott foreshadows amendment fight

In a statement on Facebook Tony Abbott, whose seat of Warringah voted 75% for same-sex marriage, has said that “the people have spoken and the parliament should respect the result”.

Abbott then immediately starts piling the pressure on to modify the cross-party bill authored by Dean Smith noting that Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten have “pledged their support for freedom of religion.
Abbott:

“I also thank the 4.7 million Australians who supported marriage between a man and a woman. Both the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader have pledged their support for freedom of religion.

I look forward to a parliamentary process that improves on the Dean Smith bill to implement same sex marriage with freedom of conscience for all, not just the churches. So far, this process has been a credit to us as a nation and now needs to be completed in a way that keeps us the best country in the world.”

Updated

Two dispatches from the UK:

The yes vote has presented the Coalition with a potentially damaging choice between two bills to make same-sex marriage lawful. One is proposed by moderate Liberal, Dean Smith, and another from James Paterson, which has the backing of conservatives. We think the debate will take place in the week of 27 November.

Conservative senators Eric Abetz and Matt Canavan have expressed support for Paterson’s bill. Paterson’s bill is designed to give greater religious protections for those who don’t want to provide goods or services to same-sex weddings. Bakers or florists, for example, could refuse to do work for same-sex weddings. Lyle Shelton, speaking at the no campaign event, has just described Paterson’s bill as a “very good bill”. He said it gives protections from threats to freedom of speech and religion.

Conservative Mathias Cormann spoke earlier. He said the Smith bill is a good place to start, but he wants amendments to improve religious protections.

“I believe the Smith bill is a good starting point and indeed a number of senators have given notices that they will seek to introduce the Smith bill into the Senate this afternoon,” he said. “I do believe that there is a need for some additional religious protections. I am not going to go into the specifics today.”

Malcolm Turnbull has promised to get the bill through by Christmas. But he now faces a tough task in attempting to broker a compromise between factions inside the Coalition.

How did your electorate turn out? Courtesy of Nick Evershed, below is the breakdown of participation rates for the survey.

Electorate by electorate participation rates for the same sex marriage survey.

Head of the conservative Australian Christian Lobby and leading No campaigner, Lyle Shelton says despite their “valiant effort”, “we haven’t quite got to where we wanted to go.

He says the volunteers have shown “great commitment in the campaign” and it’s been an “incredible journey”.

Shelton says he’s enjoyed the campaign and the process.

He says he’s spoken to people across the country who are now energised to participate in the democratic process, which in this case didn’t go their way.

“People wer persuaded by the yes campaign. They have been campaigning for at least a decade,” he says, describing them as “relentless”.

“They have seen the fruit of their relentlessness.”

Shelton says they will now focus on the parliamentary process.

He again calls for protections of freedom of speech, religion and conscience, again only vaguely saying how they would actually be affected by same sex marriage legislation.

Is a marriage equality data visualisation without animated rainbow confetti really a proper marriage equality data visualisation?

More from a disappointed Lyle Shelton, who would have struggled to be in the media more during this campaign, really. Over two weeks of the campaign, Shelton got more media attention than all three leading yes campaigners combined.

Updated

Michael McGowan has been at the Sydney event.

The crowd react to the yes vote in front of the State library of Victoria in Melbourne.
The crowd react to the yes vote in front of the state library of Victoria in Melbourne. Photograph: David Crosling/AAP
Christine Forster, the sister of former prime minister Tony Abbott, celebrates at a picnic held by the Equality Campaign in Sydney.
Christine Forster, the sister of former prime minister Tony Abbott, celebrates at a picnic held by the Equality Campaign in Sydney. Photograph: David Moir/AAP

Updated

Australian Christian Lobby’s Lyle Shelton, seeking to interpret the result, has said the yes side has “been campaigning for many, many years”, as opposed to the no side, which has only had three months.

Shelton said he respects the results, but: “Three months wasn’t long enough to overturn 10 years or more [of yes campaigning].”

He said the no side had been highly successful in the short time it had.

“We know that we’ve shifted at least 1m votes, it wasn’t enough to get over the line at the end of the day,” he said.

Updated

My colleague, Amy Remeikis, who is reporting on the Queensland election campaign, reports there were cheers from the Labor campaign plane as the result rolled in.

“Thank you Australia,” says Labor senator Penny Wong.

“Thank you for standing up for fairness, thank you for standing up for equality, thank you for standing up for the LGBTIQ community everywhere and for standing up for our families.”

Wong says Australia has done its part and now it’s time for the parliament to do its part.

“I hope everyone in this parliament has heard the resounding voice of the Australian people today. A mandate for change, for fairness for equality, because it is time. It’s time to change to marriage law, it’s time to remove discrimination, for equality.”

Wong finishes with a message to the LGBTIQ community.

“You didn’t want this process, and it has been really hard for many of you,” she says.

“I hope from this you can take a message of solidarity, of support, of deceny from your fellow Australians.”

Senator Penny Wong breaks down after the announcement of the same-sex marriage survey.
Senator Penny Wong breaks down after the announcement of the same-sex marriage survey. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian
Sam Dastyari embraces an emotional Penny Wong.
Sam Dastyari embraces an emotional Penny Wong. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian
Wong responds to the results of the postal survey.
Wong responds to the results of the postal survey. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

Senator Dean Smith has called the result the “strongest electoral mandate we have seen”, stronger than the Howard election, stronger than the conscription plebiscite.

“A huge democratic achievement for our country”, he says.

“It’s now up to parliament to do what it’s always been expected to do - to legislate.”

He urged support for his bill, which will be presented to the Senate today and debated tomorrow.

This is pretty great.

From Melissa Davey in Melbourne, the moment the Yes vote was announced.

One of the most prominent no campaigners, Eric Abetz, has congratulated the yes campaign.

Abetz said 61% was a significant victory in anyone’s language. He denied parliament has abrogated its responsibility by holding the survey. But he acknowledged the parliament will represent the views of the Australian people.

He will be supporting the same-sex marriage bill of James Paterson, which provides a greater right for businesses to discriminate against same-sex weddings.

“I will use my vote to seek to ensure the best possible protections for those classical liberal values of which I spoke,” he said.

Christensen said he wouldn't vote against his electorate, so he's abstaining

National MP George Christensen had issued a statement on Facebook that he will vote for the Paterson bill but ABSTAIN on a bill that “is deficient in protections for people of faith”. That’s his version of not voting against his electorate’s wishes.

Christensen:

“Regarding the marriage survey, I said repeatedly and specifically that I would not vote against my electorate’s wishes. The result in the seat of Dawson is lower support than the national average for changing marriage but it is still to change it.

As such, if the Patterson bill is put forward or the protections that are in it are put into another marriage bill, I will vote yes. Otherwise, if a bill comes forward that is deficient in protections for people of faith, conscientious objectors and parents (when it comes to what’s taught in schools), then I will abstain, which keeps faith with my commitment – I will not vote against the wishes of my electorate.

During the campaign, we were repeatedly told that changing the definition of marriage would not impact upon peoples’ religious liberty or contentious beliefs and that it would not impact upon what was taught in the classroom nor the rights of parents in that respect.

Given this is what was said by those pushing the yes line, we now need to ensure that any law changing the definition of marriage enshrines these rights that we were told would not be impacted by changing marriage. Any argument against such protections proves that the yes advocates were lying and that this change will have those negative impacts we were concerned about.”


The prime minister has warned there is no chance of Paterson’s bill getting through parliament.

Updated

Bill Shorten has addressed the crowd in Melbourne: “Today we celebrate, tomorrow we legislate. What this shows is unconditional love always has the last word. It may have been 61% who voted yes but you are 100% loved and valued and, as of the next few weeks in parliament, 100% able to marry the people you love.”

“The nation has put its heart into winning this survey,” says Anna Brown, co-chair of the Marriage Equality campaign and director of legal advocacy at the Human Rights Law Centre.

“LGBTI Australians, their friends and families will be celebrating. All Australians should have the same opportunities for love, commitment and happiness. All Australians should be able to marry the person they love. This result confirms that the majority of Australians absolutely agree.”

Updated

Warringah, the electorate of Tony Abbott, one of the strongest campaigners against marriage equality and who said a 40% no vote would be “a moral victory”, has returned the 10th highest yes vote in the country, according to the AFR.

Updated

Here are the results, care of our data wizard, Nick Evershed.

Same sex marriage survey returns a 61.6% YES vote.

There’s an interesting result in Bennelong, which is facing a looming byelection, which Labor hopes to win.

The electorate was fairly evenly split, with 49.8% voting yes and 50.2% voting no.

What will that mean for Kristina Keneally, Labor’s star candidate? The seat is already considered safe Liberal. She’s facing an uphill battle. Can she convince an electorate that is 50.2% against same-sex marriage to vote for her? We’ll soon find out.

Updated

'We can all be proud' says Yes campaign.

“This happened because millions of Australians reached out to our own families, neighbourhoods, organisations – to stand up for equality, stand by our loved ones and share why YES was so important,” says Alex Greenwich, of the Equality Campaign.

“You’ve done it. It’s YES,” he said.

“Now, because of you, ours will be the last generation in which LGBTI relationships are not equal under the law. For the young person growing up in a small town, for the couple who have been together 40 years, and the person who’s been longing to propose: you belong here, your love is celebrated and honoured here, and never again will you be made to feel otherwise by our country’s laws.

So pick up the phone right now. Call your son or daughter. Text your best friend. Hug your grandma. High-five the coffee guy. Pump the music in your office. Put a shiny new badge on your profile pic. Give your child a great big cuddle. Because today in Australia, fairness and equality triumphed, and we can all be proud.”


Reactions and observations flooding in.

Updated

Malcolm Turnbull says Australians have voted “overwhelmingly yes” for fairness and commitment.

“We asked the Australian public for their view. This was an unprecedented exercise in democracy. A voluntary survey in which 80% participated and 61.6% have said yes. That is an overwhelming participation rate and an overwhelming yes vote. I know many people -a minority obviously - voted no. But we are a fair nation. There is nothing more Australian than a fair go... equality and mutual respect, and everyone has had their say.”

The ABC is reporting from outside the No campaign. It looks... quiet.

The prime minister is scheduled to hold a press conference at 10.15am. He’ll be speaking with Mathias Cormann.

The results are starting to come in by electorate. Turnbull’s electorate of Wentworth delivered a staggering result for the yes camp. It returned an 80% yes vote. Just 19.2% of Turnbull’s electorate voted no.

Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah voted 75% yes.

State and territory breakdown graph courtesy of the ABS.

Melbourne and Sydney had the highest results for Yes - 83.7%.

133 of 150 electorates voted yes in the majority, 95 by more than 60%. Just 17 electorates voted no.

YES VOTE WINS with 61.6% of the vote

7,817,247 people voted yes.

4,873,987 voted no - just 38.4% of the clear responses. Sorry Tony Abbott.

Updated

79.5% of people voted. This was “outstanding for a voluntary survey,” he said.

All age groups had participation rates above 70%, but slightly more in older age groups.

18 and 19 year olds responded with around 78% participating.

Australian statistician David Kalisch is speaking. He says the ABS provided trusted, relevant and accurate statistics.

Kalisch had promised he wouldn’t draw out the announcement but is is feeling extremely drawn out.

Come on mate.

We’re a few minutes out. There will obviously be a lot going on once the result is known. I’ll bring you the numbers as we get them, and then the reactions from the yes campaigners and national events, political leaders, and the no campaigners.

Then we’ll start to look at what happens next, but first things first, let’s get these numbers.

Updated

The Victorian commissioner for gender and sexuality had just addressed thousands of people at the yes rally in Melbourne.

“This campaign has been extremely hard on us. Don’t underestimate that. We see you rainbow families. We support you, we are stronger when we stand together and we will leave no one behind. I want us to hold hands or link arms now. We are stronger together. Look at us Australia. We stand united.”

Updated

We are about 10 minutes out from the announcement and the yes events are filling up.

Updated

Swimming champion Ian Thorpe, a prominent yes campaigner, has just spoken ahead of this morning’s announcement. He said the high participation rate (80%) gives him more confidence of a positive result.

Thorpe said a yes vote would represent “a huge victory for us”.

“This has been a long time coming, if you consider that just over a decade ago only around 30% of people supported marriage equality. We’re now feeling that support is going to be about 60%, that figure has doubled,” he told Sky News.

“What it will mean is that we’re recognised as being part of the community right around this country, and we’ll have the same freedoms as our straight brothers and sisters have.”

Updated

There is no doubt this has been a hugely damaging campaign for the emotional wellbeing and mental health of people in and supporting the LGBTQI community.

Today marks the end of a draining few weeks for many, who will still have to go through the political debate over legislation.

Brenda Appleton is the Chair of Transgender Victoria, was the co-chair of the last Victorian LGBTI Taskforce, is a member of the Victorian Mental Health Expert Taskforce and a member of Victorian Government’s Elders Abuse Roundtable.

On Monday she addressed the Wheeler Centre, with a powerful speech on the impact of the last few months on trans people.

I am feeling tired. Tired from the awful marriage equality debate and the hurt and damage it has done to rainbow families. Tired of being judged and misjudged by fellow citizens. Tired of the focus on allowing same-sex couples to marry and not on discussing marriage is to be between two people, so that trans, gender diverse and intersex people are included. Tired that Australia is held back from being a leader in social justice reform and is relegated to a laggard.

...

Through the marriage equality debate we have seen attack after attack on LGBTI people, especially trans and gender diverse and young people. School children have suddenly been ridiculed and ostracised, harassed and in some cases assaulted. Cyber bullying has hit new lows or should that be highs? There has been increased self-harm and even suicides. There has been elevated levels of anxiety and related health impacts. There has been a heavy toll for LGBTI people and we fear it will not end with the announcement this week.

An interview with Lyle Shelton just aired on the big screen outside the State Library. He was drowned out by a chorus of booing. Several hundred here now.

Updated

The postal survey is really only the beginning. If the result returns a yes vote as it’s expected to, the nation will then look to the federal parliament to do as promised and change the law.

The ABC has put together a list of each MP - no mean feat this week with the revolving parliamentary doors - and how they intend to respond to the vote. Not everyone will follow the result, and some will cast their decision based on their electorate’s decision.

Of those who responded, seven MPs have said they would vote against a bill, no matter what.

There are two bills floating around for parliament to consider, or be inspired by, or ignore. They’re an unpredictable bunch lately.

The first was drafted by moderate Liberal MP Dean Smith. It’s a cross-party bill borne from the recommendations of a Senate committee inquiry.

On Tuesday Smith officially gave notice that his bill would be moved in the Senate on Wednesday and debated on Thursday.

The second bill, revealed a few days ago by Liberal MP James Paterson, has managed to draw rebuke from even his own party colleagues, with the young conservative politician accused of dangerously threatening existing anti-discrimination protections.

Among its eyebrow raising clauses, Paterson’s bill would seek stronger rights for businesses to discriminate against same-sex weddings and couples.

Malcolm Turnbull said Smith’s bill was a good start. Paterson’s? “I think it would have virtually no prospect of getting through the parliament.”

If a No vote is returned, that will largely be the end of it for this current parliament.

Opposition leader Bill Shorten has pledged Labor will not end its support for marriage equality and would legislate for it in the first 100 days of a Labor government.

Some of my Guardian Australia colleagues will be reporting from the various yes campaign events.

Melissa Davey is in Melbourne, where a couple of hundred people have already gathered outside the State Library.

It’s a fairly calm atmosphere at the moment on a hot and humid morning. A large screen has been placed in front of the library to live stream the results.

Davey’s just spoken with campaigner Emily Nachtigall.

“Personally I’m not hugely nervous – I’d be really surprised if they went with the no vote,” says Nachtigall. “Equal Love has been going since 2004 and I’ve been involved for five years. The committee has put every spare minute into this campaign, we’re tired, but I’m personally very hopeful.”

Andrew Doherty says he always wanted to marry his partner and he’s hoping for the best.

“We’ve been together three years. I’ve pre-proposed to him. I always wanted a beach wedding in top hat and tails. I’m not happy we had to have this vote but I’m happy we have the opportunity to change things. I’m confident Australia has woken up but I’m not confident the politicians have, especially [with] these bills proposed to embed discrimination.”

Updated

Supporters of the yes campaign have gathered in public areas across the country, including at an official event at Sydney’s Prince Alfred Park, Melbourne’s State Library, Queens Park in Brisbane, and Perth’s Northbridge Plaza (where it will only be 7am in the WA timezone).

A stack of parties and festivities are also planned, amid optimism about the result.

The no campaign is getting together for a private event in Sydney, with a press conference after the result.

Tony Abbott, former prime minister, current backbencher, and strident no campaigner, has said he reckons a 40% no vote would be a “moral victory”.

Updated

Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of the results of the same sex marriage postal survey.

At 10am AEDT the Australian Bureau of Statistics will reveal the outcome of the incredibly controversial, painful, and drawn out voluntary postal survey.

Most are tentatively expecting a yes result, with successive polls pointing that way.

The ABS will reveal the national split of yes votes, no votes, and where the response was unclear, as well as the breakdown by state/territory, federal electorate, and the count of people who were eligible to vote but didn’t.

Gender and age breakdowns will only be given for participation as a whole, not yes/no, as the survey was anonymous.

The press conference, by Australia head statistician David Kalisch and deputy Jonathon Palmer, will be broadcast just about everywhere and I’ll bring you all the details here.

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