The Albanese government is privately downplaying expectations of winning the bid to host next year’s UN climate conference as rival Turkey refuses to withdraw two months out from the decision date.
The government has ruled out using taxpayer funds to effectively buy off the Turkish bid but experts believe it will need to make other offers if it wants to break the impasse.
Anthony Albanese plans to meet the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on the sidelines of the UN general assembly in New York this month with the hope of convincing him to withdraw his Cop31 bid – clearing the way for Australia to stage the global climate talks in partnership with Pacific Island nations.
On Friday, Pacific leaders issued a fresh call for Turkey to step aside as an “act of good faith” after this week’s Pacific Islands forum in Solomon Islands, which Albanese attended.
“The clear message from Pacific leaders is that we want to host Cop31, we deserve to host Cop31, and given the breadth and depth of support, it would be seen as an act of good faith if others would clear the way,” the president of Palau, Surangel Whipps Jr, said.
“The coming weeks are make or break, which is why we agreed to work very closely with prime minister Albanese, including in New York in 10 days’ time. We don’t want to let this major international opportunity slip us by.”
Choosing a Cop host requires consensus of the members of the group of nations whose turn it is to stage the event, which draws together world leaders, diplomats, NGOs and industry lobbyists for a fortnight of climate negotiations.
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Government sources said Australia has the backing of as many as 25 of the 29 countries in its Western European and Others group, which includes Turkey.
But even though Australia has overwhelming support, unless the rival bidder withdraws the hosting rights would automatically revert to Bonn, Germany, under Cop conventions.
The deadlock must be resolved before Cop30 in Belém, Brazil, wraps up in late November.
Senior government sources, who spoke to Guardian Australia on the condition of anonymity, believe the prospect of Australia missing out is a genuine possibility amid dwindling hopes that Turkey will relent, even though it does not have the international support to win in its own right.
They confirmed that one of the main reasons Turkey was fighting so hard was Erdoğan’s wife, Emine Erdoğan, who is an outspoken environmentalist.
Turkey is adamant its time has come to host the annual event after withdrawing from the race to host Cop26, which ultimately went to Glasgow.
Albanese pointed to that second factor this week as he conceded it would be an “unfortunate outcome” if Australia’s bid was unsuccessful.
The federal government has been privately arguing that Turkey withdrawing this time was different to the Cop26 race because rather than clearing the path for a large western nation – in that case the UK – it would be giving a global platform to Pacific nations on the frontline of the climate crisis.
If the bid fails, the federal government will move to quickly reassure Pacific nations about its ongoing commitment to climate action, including with the 2035 emissions reduction target it plans to unveil next week before Albanese travels to New York.
As the late-November deadline looms with no apparent progress on a resolution, experienced climate negotiators anticipate the federal government will need to offer Turkey something to secure the bid.
Earlier this year, Politico reported the then Boris Johnson-led UK government used a package of incentives to convince Turkey to pull out of the Cop26 bidding contest, including promising to back its candidates vying for roles on international and UN bodies and to speak with other countries about reclassifying Turkey under the UN convention so it could receive climate aid.
The UK also reportedly agreed to support Turkey’s bid to host Cop31. The now Keir Starmer-led Labour government has since publicly backed Australia’s bid.
Richie Merzian, a former Australian climate negotiator, said the Albanese government would need to “sweeten the deal” to encourage Turkey to step aside.
“It’s unclear what the Turkish government actually want,” Merzian, who is now the chief executive of the Clean Energy Investor Group, said. “But it could be supporting Turkey at other UN events and for other UN positions, support for Turkish aid projects or for trade deals that might not even involve Australia.”
Government sources confirmed there would be no financial deal with Turkey but would not be drawn on other types of offers that might be put forward.
Guardian Australia understands the idea of splitting some of the preliminary Cop event between Turkey and the Pacific was floated at one stage as a possible compromise.
Merzian expected the deadlock would be broken at the Belém conference.
“Much like litigation, it will probably settle before it gets to the plenary floor (for a vote at Cop30). You need everyone to meet at Cop30, at Brazil, to nut this out.”
The Turkish embassy in Canberra was contacted for comment.
