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Newcastle Herald
Newcastle Herald
National
Editorial

Australia's AUKUS subs switch radiates over Glasgow

Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison

It would be to dismiss the rancour between France and Australia as a temporary diplomatic impasse.

France, on this reasoning, was always going to be upset about the sudden cancellation of an order worth $90 billion.

President Emmanuel had domestic needs to look tough at home, and it now seems he knew more than he said initially about the supposedly "shock" decision.

The French embassy would have kept watch on developments here, but even if France is over-dramatising the spat, this does not mean the row is inconsequential.

The fact that supposedly private conversations ended up in the media has not endeared the Australian side to France.

When private conversations become public, trust can evaporate. Leaders need to be able to converse without fear.

In the long run, though, diplomatic rows usually blow over. Ambassadors will be withdrawn and accusations exchanged but mutual self-interest to co-operate will eventually take hold.

But it can take time.

It took years to resume diplomatic relations after French intelligence services outraged the world by sinking the Greenpeace ship, Rainbow Warrior, in Auckland harbour.

In this present dispute with France, healing will take time, perhaps beyond the terms of both leaders.

Which could prove problematic because Australia may need French goodwill as China becomes more assertive, with a fast-growing military and the potential to invade Taiwan.

France is one of the two pillars of the European Union.

It and Germany often act as one. Scott Morrison has not made it easier to get EU support should any unpleasant eventuality arise over China.

This spat also matters at home in Australia.

Mr Morrison was already under fire for his reluctance to go to Glasgow.

In the end, he bowed to criticism.

Unsurprisingly, his critics said he was overly influenced by perceptions: that he attended COP26 because of "optics", rather than principle.

He is often accused of being too concerned with appearance.

He may wish to throw off his "Scotty from Marketing" tag, but his actions don't always make that easy, and now that reputation has followed him to the global stage.

Mr Morrison may not worry too much if French leaders and diplomats profess not to trust him.

But it will matter if the Australian public doesn't trust him, either.

ISSUE: 39,714

CONSEQUENCES: Even though the AUKUS deal was an obvious reaction to the changing geopolitical pressures over relations between China and the West, it does not mean the switch was without negative political consequences in Europe. Picture: US Navy
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