Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Reuters
Reuters
Business
Wayne Cole

Australia, NZ dlrs suffer collateral damage in Sino-US trade conflict

Australian dollars are seen in an illustration photo February 8, 2018. REUTERS/Daniel Munoz - RC176A1D8AA0

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were on the defensive on Friday after a rough week in which worries about China's economy and asset markets drove both currencies to multi-month lows.

The Aussie dollar <AUD=D3> was down 1.2 percent for the week at $0.7340 and within a whisker of a one-year trough at $0.7323.

It still has some support around the $0.7329 low from May last year, but bearish charts flag the risk of a return to the December 2016 nadir of $0.7160.

The kiwi was pinned at $0.6743 <NZD=D3>, having shed 2.4 percent in a week that saw it delve depths not visited since June 2016 at $0.6739.

Dealers said the market was now very short of the currency, which could provide a brief break from selling, but a bearish chart backdrop meant the next likely target was a $0.6676 trough from May 2016.

Speculators have been selling the currencies as a liquid proxy for Chinese assets which have been taking a beating amid mounting Sino-U.S. trade tensions.

The yuan <CNH=D3> has fallen steadily to six-month lows while Shanghai blue chips <.CSI300> shed 5 percent just this week to reach a 13-month low.

"We think the yuan and Chinese equities deserve close attention at the moment, further declines will undoubtedly increase the risk of contagion," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB.

At a policy review this week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand highlighted the risk poised to the export-driven economy from a possible trade war.

The RBNZ took a dovish tone as it emphasised rates would remain at record lows for some time to come, a clear contrast to the tightening bias of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Likewise, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is considered certain to keep its cash rate at an all-time low of 1.5 percent at a policy meeting on July 3.

The bank has made it abundantly clear it is no hurry to tighten given wage growth and inflation remain uncomfortably low, leaving the market to push a hike ever further into the future.

Interbank rate futures <0#YIB:> imply a cash rate of 1.69 percent for November next year, implying around a 76 percent chance of a 25 basis-point increase by then.

The global risks to growth have driven up demand for triple-A rated Australian bonds, pushing 10-year yields <AU10YT=RR> down to 2.62 percent from highs around 2.84 percent in mid-May.

On Friday, the three-year bond future <YTTc1> was up 1.5 ticks at 97.935, while the 10-year contract <YTCc1> held steady at 97.3750.

New Zealand government bond yields were a tick lower at the short end of the curve <0#NZTSY=>.

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Eric Meijer)

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.