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Reuters
Reuters
Business
Swati Pandey

Australia, New Zealand dollars ride risk rocket to multi-month heights

New Zealand and Australia one dollar coins are seen in a picture illustration taken on July 12, 2016. REUTERS/David Gray/Illustration/File Photo

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The Australian dollar shot up to a four-month peak on Friday and was on track for its best weekly performance since mid-March, boosted by carry trades as risk-on sentiment dominated globally.

The Aussie <AUD=D4> breached stiff chart resistance of $0.7712 overnight and climbed to around $0.7736. For the week, it is up 1.7 percent.

The New Zealand dollar <NZD=D4> stood at $0.7320, having reached a 5-1/2-month high of $0.7369 on a timid greenback.

For the week, the kiwi is up 0.6 percent after falling by about that much the previous week.

Traders will keenly watch U.S. inflation data due later in the session, which is likely to determine the U.S. dollar's near-term direction.

The jump in the antipodean currencies followed comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who sounded less hawkish than some had feared while reinforcing her message of watching inflation "very carefully".

Her reluctance to rock the boat for markets paved the way for more carry trades, where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets such as the Aussie and the kiwi.

"The clear driver has been super low implied volatility, a general ill-will towards holding USDs, renewed outperformance of emerging markets of which AUD is a proxy in G10 forex circles and with this the propensity to desire to pick up yield or 'carry'," Chris Weston, Melbourne-based chief market strategist, IG Markets, said in a note.

Weston added that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was powerless to cap gains in the Aussie unless it shifted to an explicit easing bias and led the market to believe the next move in interest rates is down, not up.

This would be difficult, given that futures <0#YIB:> imply a tiny chance of a rate hike as early as November with a move of 25 basis points almost fully priced in by August 2018.

The RBA held rates at a record low 1.50 percent for an 11th straight month in July, showing absolutely no indication of a hike in the near future. [AU/INT]

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has also left rates at an all-time low, in this case 1.75 percent, after easing in November 2016. <NZINTR=ECI>

New Zealand government bonds <0#NZTSY=> eased, sending yields about 4-4.5 basis points higher at the long end of the curve.

Australian government bond futures slipped, with the three-year bond contract <YTTc1> down 3 ticks at 97.990. The 10-year contract <YTCc1> was off 3.5 ticks at 97.28.

(Editing by Richard Borsuk)

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