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ABC News
ABC News
Health
By Casey Briggs

Australia is now part of the 'first movers' club as it eases coronavirus restrictions

Australia now has a roadmap out of the COVID-19 crisis, but helping guide the way is input from a group of nations across the world that have been dubbed the "first movers".

The eclectic group of countries — which counts Israel, Greece, Denmark, and New Zealand among its members — is swapping tips along the path out of the crisis.

At a meeting held before Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced Australia's plan on Friday, the leaders compared notes on opening up schools, contact tracing, and future travel.

There's no guarantee for any members of the club, including Australia, that the virus won't come back.

But even compared to some of those successes, Australia has a relatively flat curve.

Denmark charts one possible course, after easing back from restrictions that bore some resemblance to Australia's.

Gatherings had been limited to 10, the borders were shut, and gyms and bars were closed.

The country also moved early to impose the measures, preventing some of the devastating scenes across the rest of Western Europe.

Since scaling back the rules, Denmark hasn't seen a second wave of cases but the virus is lingering, with up to 200 cases still being found each day.

Austria — another member of the first movers club — eased back in the same week and now has a curve with a very similar shape to Australia's.

It too is still finding low levels of infection through the community.

Individual clusters now dominating Australia's infections

While Australia continues to record low levels of COVID-19 cases, it's likely that authorities will still have the occasional outbreak to grapple with.

A single cluster at Melbourne's Cedar Meats abattoir has dominated new diagnoses this week, and has pushed Australia's growth factor above one for the first time in weeks.

"This is what we expect to see and what we will continue to see," Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy said.

"That's not such a concern if we're getting on top and we're managing these outbreaks as we have."

At this week's international skill-share, Mr Morrison asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take him through the country's quarantined "red zones".

That policy saw the army sent in to control virus clusters and restrict movement, a policy that has been criticised as heavy-handed.

Localised responses may be integral to staying on top of the virus, although Australians are likely to take less kindly to the army enforcing them.

"The virus is still there, it's still in our community, and that's why despite our very good position we've got to be very cautious," Professor Murphy said.

"We don't want to lose the control that we've got."

Roads are filling up faster than trains

International movement data from the first movers tells us we can expect people to avoid using public transport for some time to come.

The Danes have hesitated to flock back to mass transit, according to usage data from Apple's maps app.

Driving has rebounded strongly, with car usage in the past week just 7 per cent below normal levels.

A similar pattern is starting to emerge in Australia, but it's still early days.

Adherence to social distancing is already starting to fray, at least according to an analysis of mobility data by Doherty Institute researchers.

"We note that the strongest signal of reduced adherence is for activities considered to be relatively low-risk [driving and visiting parks]," the group's latest technical report stated.

It suggests that patience may be starting to wear thin, with the public ready to vote with its feet with or without a government plan.

Another early mover

The "first movers" are by no means the only movers, however.

Thirty US states have ended, or are planning to end, stay-at-home orders.

The hardest-hit states, including New York, where the death rate has slowed, are not among them.

But most of them are still climbing the curve, with each week bringing more cases than the last.

The United States as a whole has averaged nearly 1,800 deaths a day over the past week.

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