Despite undergoing an expected tenfold explosion over the next five years, international lithium production is destined to fall short of soaring universal demand for electric vehicles.
The highly sought after alkali metal has become "as important as gasoline in the industrial revolution", according to Shanghai academic Qifan Xia.
"While lithium reserves are substantial around the world, they are distributed unevenly across different countries," he explains.
"So we were interested if the major EV markets can be self-sufficient."
In fact, the world's biggest lithium markets - China, Europe and the United States - account for 80 per cent of global EV sales but simply won't be able, by 2030, to meet their own demands.
For the planet's leading lithium producers - Australia and Chile - the future is therefore lucrative.
Dr Xia and his team at East China Normal University estimate the economic superpower will need up to 1.3 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent - a standard measure of lithium content - to meet its new electric vehicle quota.
Europe could require 792,000 tons and the US 692,000.
Based on existing and proposed mining projects for all three, China might be able to produce somewhere between 804,000 and 1.1 million tons of equivalent by 2030.
Production in Europe could reach 325,000 tons and in the USA, between 229,000 and 610,000 tons.
The predictions suggest even the most ambitious plans to expand domestic mining would fall short, even if projects begin quickly.
Europe would face the largest gap, with modelling showing it would rely heavily on imports.
The researchers also warn that increased imports by one region would directly reduce access for others, exacerbating supply constraints and straining international trade relations.
In one scenario they calculated, an increase of 77 per cent in Chinese imports would mean imports to the US would drop by 84 per cent and to Europe by 78 per cent.
Most of Australia's lithium is produced from hard-rock spodumene, in contrast to other major producers like Argentina, Chile and China, which produce it mainly from salt lakes.
A 2023 estimate suggested Australian production will hit a cap of 1.2 million tonnes of equivalent by 2030 and it will remain the top producer but with a smaller proportion of the world's production.
It is currently the biggest producer of lithium by weight, with most extraction undertaken in Western Australia including at the worlds largest hard-rock mine, Greenbushes.
Dr Xia says other means of avoiding a looming lithium crisis might include adopting battery technologies that use less or no lithium, or shifting consumer focus to promoting public transport.
"Our study showed that without immediate action to expand mining, diversify suppliers and rethink how we manage demand, the world risks delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals," he said.
