Australia has an opportunity to forge a path away from fossil fuels in its new climate negotiating gig and can expect opposing pressures from domestic coal and gas interests and Pacific nations.
No formal agreement was reached on a road map to phase out oil, coal and gas at the 2025 Conference of the Parties summit in Brazil, but Australia was among 80 signatories of the Belem Declaration in support of a plan to ditch the polluting fuels.
Countries agreed to "transition away from fossil fuels" during climate negotiations in 2023, but leaders have not yet landed on a path to get there.
University of Melbourne environmental law expert Jacqueline Peel said Australia should be in a position to further the fossil fuel phase-out agenda in its newly created role as "president of negotiations" for COP31.
To be filled by Energy Minister Chris Bowen, the gig was a concession offered by Turkey that ultimately emerged the victor after a long stand-off with Australia and the Pacific for formal hosting rights.
Professor Peel, who attended the Brazil summit, said there was an opening for Australia to progress the fossil fuel issue, but its status as a major coal and gas producer made that "a really complicated question".
"Australia was very late in signing on to the fossil fuel road map at COP30, and it did seem almost that its good angels, ie the Pacific, sitting on one shoulder, were very important in taking that position," she told a briefing held by the COP Universities Alliance on Wednesday.
Prof Peel expected Pacific nations, which are acutely vulnerable to global warming and have played an outsized role in global climate negotiations for decades, to keep pressure on the COP31 presidency to log progress on a plan to quit fossil fuels.
After a months-long diplomatic stalemate, Australia gave up on its bid to host the COP31 event in Adelaide.
It will now be held in the Turkish resort town of Antalya.
Clean Energy Investor Group chief executive officer Richie Merzian said Mr Bowen had built up credibility as a negotiator and was no stranger to dealing with fossil fuel interests as a member of the NSW right faction
"It's coming from a place where he's had to deal with this domestically," Mr Merzian told the same online briefing.
He expected Mr Bowen to tackle the question by focusing on the role of Asia-Pacific as a major manufacturer of climate solutions and energy consumer, as well as the mechanisms needed to unlock a faster clean energy rollout.
"We know that twice as much money is flowing to renewables as coal and fossil fuels, but it's still not enough to get us there."
