What we learned today, Thursday 1 May
We’ve made it to the second last day of the election campaign, and dogs around Australia being used in photos to humanise politicians are breathing a collective sigh of relief.
It’s been a big day today, with the release of the Coalition’s costings and last-minute media blitzes before Australians hit the polls. Here are the major events:
Angus Taylor said the Coalition would “beat inflation sustainably”, boost growth, fix energy markets and fix the housing market as he released the Coalition’s policy costings. Taylor said the Coalition would improve the budget bottom line by $14bn over the forward estimates and deliver a $40bn improvement in the level of gross debt.
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, summed up the Coalition’s costings as “higher taxes, savage cuts and bigger deficits”.
Federal Labor will govern with a clear majority while the Coalition will suffer its worst election result in 80 years, if YouGov’s final poll before the election comes true. Anthony Albanese said Labor still has a “mountain to climb” to re-form government.
It comes as almost 5 million Australians have already cast their ballots in pre-polling.
Peter Dutton has walked back the Coalition’s previous pledge to change the national school curriculum.
The lead Senate candidate for the ACT Liberals hammered Dutton’s policy to slash 41,000 positions from the public service in Canberra, saying it was “unrealistic” and “not practical”.
And the median value of an Australian dwelling increased approximately $2,720 in April, after a third straight month of growth, according to Cotality’s national home value index.
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Coalition plan to cut prac payments called ‘disappointing and short-sighted’
Also indicated in the Coalition’s costings is the cutting of Labor’s prac payment scheme which, from July this year, will provide $319.50 a week (benchmarked to the single Austudy rate) to students undertaking placements in teaching, nursing and midwifery, and social work courses.
The policy was a recommendation of the Universities Accord and has been lobbied for by student bodies and the Greens.
The costings show savings of $113m in the first year to modify the commonwealth payments, or $556m over four years.
The education minister, Jason Clare, said Peter Dutton was “taking an axe” to education funding, “like the Liberals always do”.
Under the Liberals, students will be lumped with more debt, they will rip funding away from nursing and teaching standards, and they will take the chainsaw to childcare … the Liberal party cannot be trusted on education.
The Australian Education Union federal president, Correna Haythorpe, said the cuts were “disappointing and short-sighted”.
The Commonwealth Prac Payment helps relieve financial pressure on student teachers who give up paid work to complete essential teaching placements. Removing it sends a clear message that the Dutton government does not value the work or contribution of future teachers.
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Liberal backbencher criticises Coalition’s plan to strip foreign aid budget
A Liberal backbencher has criticised the Coalition’s plan to strip $800m from the foreign aid budget over four years, within hours of it being announced.
The shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, said the Coalition was freezing the indexation of foreign aid, not cutting it.
But that has not eased the concerns of Save the Children’s chief executive, Mat Tinkler, who said “at a time of catastrophic global need, we’d hoped to see an increase in lifesaving aid”.
Nor has it convinced one member of the Liberal backbench, who asked to speak anonymously on the eve of an election:
It is a core Liberal value to support those in other parts of the world who, through mere circumstance of their birth do not have the access to health care, education, personal safety and prosperity we enjoy in Australia.
During the Menzies era Australian foreign aid spending achieved its highest ever average as a percentage of our GDP. This was driven by the famous Colombo Plan.
Investment in foreign aid is not a “nice to have”. It is a key component of our identity as a compassionate neighbour and nation. That must and should continue to extend to Africa and South East Asia.
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Coalition’s nuclear reactor costings ‘laughable’, Labor says
The finance minister, Katy Gallagher, appeared on ABC’s Afternoon Briefing earlier to respond to the Coalition’s costings. She said it was “no surprise” they were released on Thursday afternoon (Labor released its costings this Monday).
I think today has confirmed what we all knew, which is we will see high taxes under Liberals, savage cuts and a lot of holes in the document that they have listed this afternoon, including nuclear.
Asked why Labor did not accept the Coalition’s nuclear figures, which are $36bn in the medium term, Gallagher replied, “look what is happening around the world,” and called it “laughable” to suggest you did not need more short-term investment to build reactors.
They are either not committed to it or are hiding the numbers from people because they are going to make savage cuts including to Medicare.
Asked how she was feeling ahead of polling day, Gallagher said Labor had run a “good campaign” with positive policies and strong leadership.
I am always nervous and anxious, that is me naturally. It is exacerbated during the campaign … I don’t think there is any complacency at all on the Labor side. We know how hard it is for Labor governments to win federally.
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Jacinta Nampijinpa Price says ‘there is a plan to ensure schools are no longer ideological’
There’s been some back and forth today about whether or not the Coalition would change school curriculums outside normal reviews.
It follows accusations from Peter Dutton that kids were being “indoctrinated” and suggestions a condition could be placed on funding to ensure kids weren’t “guided by some sort of an agenda that’s come out of universities”.
Today, the opposition leader said there was no plan to reform the curriculum, when pressed by Guardian Australia’s Josh Butler.
But speaking to reporters earlier in Alice Springs, the Nationals senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price said she had conversed with the shadow education minister about education reform:
With the conversations that I’ve had with our shadow cabinet minister, Sarah Henderson, there is a plan to ensure that schools are no longer ideological … indoctrinating children, they are actually teaching education.
So … watch this space?
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International development council condemns Coalition’s plan to slash foreign aid budget
The Australian Council for International Development has reacted to the Coalition’s plan to slash the foreign aid budget with “alarm”.
A Coalition government would cut $813m from the foreign aid budget over four years, but maintain its assistance to the Pacific region.
The council’s chief executive, Matthew Maury, condemned the plan:
At a time when the world is facing huge global challenges, we urge the Coalition to consider the bipartisan commitment to aid that has cemented Australia’s standing in our region over decades.
As Australia’s aid generosity is already declining, today’s announcement if implemented will further exacerbate this trend, leaving us far less generous than our like-minded counterparts and a less reliable global partner.
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Join Matilda Boseley and Krishani Dhanji now on the Tell Me More livestream!
Guardian Australia’s Tell Me More live streams are your chance to ask your burning election news questions to the people who wrote that news in the first place.
Election day is now just 36-ish hours away. To make sure you are prepared to watch the results roll in, Matilda Boseley is live with political reporter and live blogger Krishani Dhanji (she was just here!) to answer all your questions about not just election day, but election evening too.
If you have a question you want answered, simply pop it in the comments on YouTube or TikTok or email australia.tellmemore@theguardian.com
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How did the Coalition arrive at an estimate of 110,000 public servants in Canberra?
Earlier in the Coalition’s press conference on policy costings, Jane Hume said there were around 110,000 public servants in the nation’s capital.
According to the Australian Public Service Commission, which acts a bit like the government’s central HR agency, there were 68,435 public servants employed in Canberra as of June 2024.
There was a bit of back-and-forth in the press conference but the journalist questioned Hume on whether all 41,000 government jobs would be taken from Canberra, as Peter Dutton said last week.
That’s because 41,000 jobs from a workforce just shy of 70,000 would have a significant impact on how the bureaucracy functions as well as Canberra’s economy.
Hume said the 70,000 figure was “not correct”, suggesting instead it was more like 110,000. So where’s that figure from? The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The ABS, however, has a slightly different definition of what a public servant is compared to the APSC. The ABS’s figures include the military and reserves – which is why, according to its data, there were 365,000 “public servants” by mid-2024, with 109,800 based in the bush capital.
On the other hand, the APSC’s figures state that by June 2024, 185,343 public servants, excluding military and reserves, were employed.
The opposition has already ruled out cuts to military and reserve numbers.
Hume softened Dutton’s previous ruling that all 41,000 jobs cut by 2030 would come from Canberra. The shadow public service minister said Canberra would remain the “focus”, leaving the door open for job cuts from elsewhere around the country.
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What’s in the Coalition’s costings on nuclear energy?
Some more on the Coalition’s costings and what they mean for climate and energy – they do give us some belated estimates about the cost of developing a nuclear energy industry.
It says it would aim to lift a ban on nuclear generators and establish a civil nuclear program, with plants to be owned by the government. It says it would “form partnerships with the most experienced nuclear companies in the world to develop and operate the plants”.
Over the next four years, it has promised funding for programs to support the creation of a nuclear energy industry, including $87.5m for community engagement and an extra $93.7m for the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency.
In the longer term, it has said it would commit $36.4bn in equity for two projects that it says could be operating by the mid 2030s, and $118.2bn for the seven projects it has promised by 2050.
These are highly optimistic numbers for starting a nuclear industry from scratch compared with recent experiences overseas.
Take, for example, the Hinkley Point C station in the UK. It has been repeatedly delayed – by more than a decade – and the expected cost has tripled to about A$90bn.
Only a few large nuclear reactors have reached construction stage this century in comparable countries in North America and western Europe.
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Climate and environment programs targeted for cuts in Coalition policy costings
The Coalition is promising to slash climate and environment programs if elected, including taking $1.7bn from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency over the next four years in a change to restore it to “its original function”.
In costings released today, the Coalition said it would abolish tax breaks for electric vehicles (saving $3.2 bn over four years), a green hydrogen production tax credit scheme ($1.5bn), the Net Zero Economy Agency to help communities through the transition ($428m) and not go ahead with Labor’s promised home batteries program ($2.3bn).
It also said it would save $590m by abolishing the “family car and ute tax” – a reference to the new vehicle efficiency standard, which is applied to auto companies to encourage a shift to cleaner cars.
It would also cut funding for Labor’s nature positive program and promised (but not yet created) Environment Protection Agency ($65m), “re-phase” funding for the Australian Antarctic Program (saving $43m) and redirect additional funding that had been committed to the climate and environment department ($48m) and for an “international climate step up” program ($28m).
The cuts are broadly consistent with the Coalition’s position on the climate crisis. It has promised to unwind or scrap most Labor policies and not promise anything new to cut emissions in the next decade.
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Angus Taylor claims ‘no ambiguity, never has been’ on Coalition’s public service cuts policy
Taylor is also pointed to the policy to cut 41,000 public servants, which Taylor says is now focused on “natural attrition and hiring freezes”.
We are very confident that natural attrition can get us to the outcomes we described … the focus is on Canberra -based roles. It is not focused on front-line roles. We have been clear about these principles all the way along. No ambiguity on that, never has been.
On nuclear, which is a key part of the Coalition’s policy platform and regularly attacked by Labor, Taylor says of the criticisms: “they are lies.”
The costings project $36bn in the medium term – which appears extremely small for an entire nuclear infrastructure suite. Taylor says this is “consistent with everything we have been saying all the way along”.
Finally, he is asked if he would run for the Liberal leadership if Peter Dutton loses the election. He says he is “running for treasurer”.
The nature of election campaigns is you are focused on one thing and one thing only, in my book anyway, that is winning. Winning for me means becoming treasurer of this great country.
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Taylor claims $800m reduction in foreign aid is ‘freezing the indexation’ and not a cut
The Coalition’s costings also showed a $800m reduction in foreign aid. Amid a US cut in aid and ongoing global conflicts, is that the right approach to be taking?
Angus Taylor says the Coalition is freezing the indexation, not cutting aid. He says we are in a “very unstable environment” which is why there is a $21bn defence boost over five years.
The Save the Children Australia Ceo, Mat Tinkler, said “at a time of catastrophic global need, we’d hoped to see an increase in lifesaving aid – not an $813.5m cut that will likely hurt the world’s most vulnerable children”:
We welcome the decision to spare the Pacific, Indonesia and Timor-Leste. But Australia has a responsibility beyond our region. We cannot turn our backs on Africa, south Asia and investment into critical global funds – particularly at a time when children there need us more than ever.
This announcement from the Coalition follows a disturbing global trend of political leaders, including those in the US, UK, [the] Netherlands and Germany who have all recently cut their own aid budgets.
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Angus Taylor says best way to tackle illicit sales of vapes is to have a regulated sector with price signals
Taylor is asked about a potential tax on vaping to crack down on the black market. He says there’s already a “big vaping tax being imposed on Australians by criminal organisations, criminal gangs”.
We would rather have a properly regulated set with a sensible tax from the government … what you are seeing is a illicit sales of vapes …. and it is a big part of the criminal activity … we have to rid ourselves of this and an important step forward in doing that is to have a regulated vape sector where there is a price signal.
I think that’s a sensible pathway forward … we are fighting the criminal organisation and the criminal gangs that are involved in this market and we know there are deep, deep links and we need to weed them out … alongside making sure there’s price signal to young Australians who want to take up vaping, this is not something that we should encourage people to do.
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Taylor says Coalition would be on a budget ‘improvement trajectory’
Taylor is again pointed to the fact deficits would be higher than Labor over the first two years. Should we then reconsider our AAA credit rating?
He says the Coalition is “improving dramatically” the budget.
You’ve got to be on an improvement trajectory, Labor have taken us off a cliff, they have deficits as far as the eye can see, $180bn of deficits under Labor.
We’ve got to be realistic about household budgets -and we are providing 25 cents a litre of fuel costs, $1,200 tax offset for up to $1,200 for 85% of taxpayers, these are important initiatives to fix two budgets, this is the fundamental point, two budgets have gone badly into the red under Labor.
Would he deliver a surplus in the first term as treasurer, though? Taylor says the Coalition’s goal is to improve the economy and get it growing faster than we are spending.
Then you get the budget back to balance. We will get back to balance as fast as we possibly can … Labor has wrecked the budget, they’ve wrecked it. There’s no question about it, they’ve taken it off the cliff … and our job is to fix that alongside fixing household budgets, it is in a disastrous situation as starting point and we are getting a significant improvement including a $40bn reduction in debt.
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Taylor defends Coalition costings
The shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, is appearing on ABC’s Afternoon Briefing to discuss the Coalition’s costings.
Asked if he’s “put up the white flag” on delivering a surplus, with larger upfront deficits than Labor, he replies: “absolutely not” and there will be a $14bn improvement in the budget position over four years.
Taylor says the Coalition is seeking to balance household budgets that have been “absolutely smashed under bad Labor government”.
We have seen homegrown inflation, the biggest reduction in our standard of living in history, more than any other country … we’ve already set a goal of getting productivity back, getting growth moving … getting spending to where we need on defending the nation … and making sure that we’ve got those critical initiatives like helping young Australians into a house, investing in housing supply and making sure that essential services like health and aged care get the spending they need.
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Chalmers says Coalition ‘want to make money off people vaping’
Chalmers takes just one question – on whether the federal government would consider the Coalition’s vape tax if re-elected, given how much revenue is being lost to the black market.
He says the difference between Labor and the Coalition is “we want to get the kids off vapes” and his opposition wants to tax people for using them.
We see them as a gateway to smoking. And we’ve been very concerned about that … The Coalition has made it clear today that they want to make money off people vaping, so that’s the difference now when it comes to tobacco excise more broadly.
We know that that’s an issue in the budget. It’s why we invested, I think, another $162m over the next couple of years in the budget to crack down on people who are avoiding paying the tobacco excise. But we want to get the kids off vapes. The Coalition wants to tax kids on vapes. That’s the difference.
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Chalmers says ‘at least five substantial holes’ in Coalition costings
Chalmers says responsible economic management has been a “defining feature” of the Labor government, pointing to two budget surpluses for the first time in almost two decades.
There are at least five substantial holes in the Coalition’s costings. They haven’t provided anywhere near enough for their nuclear reactors. They’ve got their numbers wrong on their job cuts in the Australian public service. They’ve got their numbers wrong on their long lunches policy, on their petrol policy and on their mortgage deductibility policy as well.
It’s hard to imagine that Angus Taylor has had three years to come up with this, and he’s come up with at least five substantial black holes in his costings that he has released this afternoon.
Chalmers says Australians have made a “lot of progress together” on the economy but are still under pressure in an uncertain global environment.
In uncertain and volatile times, the last thing we need is a volatile leader like Peter Dutton. If Australians want stability and responsibility, they need to elect a Labor majority at the election on Saturday. That was clear before these costings were released, but especially clear now. These costings released this afternoon by the Coalition are a joke. They are a sham. They are a costings con job …
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Chalmers responds to Coalition costings: 'higher taxes, savage cuts and bigger deficits'
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is fronting the media now in response to the release of the Coalition’s costings. He sums it up: “Higher taxes, savage cuts and bigger deficits”.
Now there are savage cuts in Peter Dutton’s costings, but they are just the beginning. Savage cuts to training, savage cuts to housing are savage cuts to energy and higher income taxes for 14 million Australians and more student debt for students.
Theirs is a recipe for higher taxes. Savage cuts and bigger deficits all at the same time. That’s what these costings reveal today.
Chalmers says the “savage cuts” (I think we’ll hear a bit of this) are “just the beginning”.
We know that there will be more to come if Peter Dutton wins the election on Saturday. Peter Dutton has himself said that if he wins the election on the weekend, there will be more cuts, but he won’t tell Australians what those cuts will be. When Peter Dutton cuts, Australians will pay.
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It’s second last day of the campaign, and so far we’ve had: a stranded bus, accusations of ‘hate media’, condemnation of welcome to country hecklers (closely followed by criticism of welcome to country) and unfamiliarity with the cost of eggs.
We’ve also had Peter Dutton say he has been “very clear” about something many, many, many times.
James Colley drags himself through all the happenings this week to make it to the campaign finish line.
Education Union accuses Coalition of walking back promise to match Labor’s free Tafe funding
The Australian Education Union (AEU) has accused the Coalition of walking back on a promise to match Labor’s education funding, with today’s costings showing a $431m reduction in free Tafe spending.
The Coalition has repeatedly opposed Labor’s fee-free Tafe bill, which the shadow education minister, Sarah Henderson, said was “just not working”.
The Federal president of the AEU, Correna Haythorpe, said the Coalition would “rip millions from a system that has changed the lives of students studying in areas of skill shortages”:
With around 600,000 students already enrolled in free Tafe, and historic investment after years of neglect for the Tafe sector, this will have a devastating effect on our public vocational education system.
In place of free Tafe, the Coalition has proposed $260m to establish 12 new technical colleges for students in years 10-12 or 11-12.
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Thank you all for joining me on the blog today, I’ll leave you with the wonderful Caitlin Cassidy to take you through the rest of the afternoon.
I’ll see you back here bright and early tomorrow!
Taylor defends Coalition migration policy numbers and claims Labor has ‘failed’ on vapes
Cutting migration has been another signature policy of the Coalition, but there were key questions as to where exactly the cuts would come from. The numbers show cuts to permanent migration will cost the budget around $4.2bn over four years in forgone revenue. Taylor says in response to a question:
Well, permanent migration, humanitarian, student visas, and that adds up to 100,000 people over the next 12 months. And ongoing reductions versus Labor’s plan.
What you have seen under Labor is an attempt to grow the economy through population growth, not through productivity growth.
The final question goes to vapes, which the Coalition has promised to increase taxation and regulation of the goods, to collect more than $3.5bn over four years.
The journo asks whether it means the Coalition is “waving the white flag” on the war on vapes. Taylor says “it’s the exact opposite”.
I’ll tell you who has … failed on vapes, [it is] the Labor government. It has been a complete and utter failure, and what we are saying … [is] that we would go with a regulated model, and we would get the criminal gangs out of this industry.
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Coalition says cost of changing nuclear regulations and training workforces included in their costings
The Coalition have put in some figures on how much their nuclear plan will cost over the forward estimates.
A journalist asks Taylor how much the cost of things like changing the regulation and training up workforces will cost. Taylor says the total figure for the forwards is there:
This is laid out very clearly and other forwards, and the medium-term, there is about $36bn of equity investments all laid out here, it’s very clear.
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Hume defends latest version of Coalition’s public service job cut policy
Hume is asked about the public service policy – which has had many iterations – but now stands at a reduction of 41,000 public servants over five years from Canberra, excluding frontline services and the military.
Hume says the Coalition “aren’t expecting voluntary redundancies” and the reduction will be achieved solely through natural attrition and hiring freezes.
I should be clear. About 5,000 or so of the 41,000 are people that haven’t actually been hired yet. That is a particularly good start.
There’s some back and forth and the journalist argues that Canberra has 70,000 public servants – so how can the 34,000 be taken from the ACT? Hume says that “isn’t true” and that there were 110,000 public servants in Canberra in 2024:
But our understanding is and we have worked closely with the PBO in this, to a hiring freeze and natural attrition, without threatening essential services, without, you know, touching natural security, and frontline services, we can reduce the size of the public service by 41,000 over five years, through natural attrition and a hiring freeze. Focus on Canberra, absolutely.
Asked whether that means some could be outside Canberra, she says again they are “focused on Canberra”.
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Hume: ‘campaign teams talk to each other all the time’
Our reporter Tom McIlroy is in the room, and asks about his report in the Guardian, that one of the architects of Donald Trump’s 2024 victory claims he made an unpublicised visit to Australia to advise the Liberal party about “structural issues” related to Peter Dutton ahead of the federal election.
It takes a while for Angus Taylor to decipher the issue.
He then says on the US generally:
We want to have a good relationship with the US. We disagree fundamentally with the position of this administration on the tariffs. We want to have open access to markets
Jane Hume then chimes in to say:
Campaign teams talk to each other all the time particularly centre-right campaign teams, from right around the world… This wouldn’t be unusual.
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Taylor says future productivity growth of 1.5% ‘an aspiration’
The costings show the Coalition puts future productivity growth at 1.5%.
Taylor says thats “an aspiration” and not an assumption in the numbers they’ve provided.
Asked what happens if the Coalition can’t get to that aspiration, Taylor says:
The aspiration will make it better than what you see in these numbers. That is the point … It is a substantially better outcome here than Labor’s.
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Taylor: ‘You will not see a permanent cost-of-living crisis under a Dutton government’
On to questions. The first journalist says the costings show that there would be bigger deficits under the Coalition for the first two years.
Taylor sticks to the forward estimates, saying that over four years there will be a “$14bn improvement”.
He says in the short term, the budget will help make life “more affordable” through it’s fuel and housing measures.
You will not see a permanent cost-of-living crisis under a Dutton government. We have had one under a Labor government. And they seem to be planning for one.
Asked next when the Coalition would get to surplus, Taylor won’t give a timeline, but says “we will get there faster than Labor”.
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Hume says Coalition will lift productivity to improve living standards
On to the issue of productivity, Hume says the Coalition will lift productivity to deliver economic growth.
Without productivity growth, we can unsustainably lift wages, cannot create better jobs, and we cannot improve Australian living standards.
It’s an issue the Reserve Bank has highlighted a fair bit recently – pointing out that Australia needs to see an increase in productivity to put further downward pressure on inflation.
In February, Michele Bullock told a press conference following a rates decision of the RBA:
We all know productivity hasn’t been as strong as we would have hoped, and that’s the way we grow the economy. That’s the way that we can have trend growth higher, because if demand increases and supply doesn’t, then that’s when you get inflationary pressures.
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‘The maths doesn’t add up’ on Labor’s plan, says Hume
Hume says Labor has “no plan to manage the budget, and no plan to grow the economy.”
She accuses the government of “lying” about the Coalition’s plan on health and education and on the cost of their nuclear plan.
Hume makes some somewhat familiar points about Labor spending the majority of its windfall revenues and claims that their latest costings don’t add up.
Labor has made the budget bottom line worse. Labor’s latest budget made $35bn in new net policy decisions. Now, in the pre-election economic and fiscal outlook, they added a further $1.1bn in new net policy decisions. Their election costings, delivered on Monday, improved the bottom line by just $1.16bn. The maths simply doesn’t add up.
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Coalition reveals costings as Taylor claims they will 'beat inflation sustainably'
Angus Taylor says the Coalition will “beat inflation sustainably”, boost growth, fix energy markets and fix the housing market.
Taylor says the Coalition will improve the budget bottom line by $14bn over the forward estimates and deliver a $40bn improvement in the level of gross debt.
He accuses Labor of driving up the price of “everything of energy, insurance, of rent, groceries, it has also driven up interest rates, and we’ve seen hard-working Australian families going backwards fast”.
He adds that there are concerns internationally that things will get worse.
We see the IMF telling us that there may well be worse to come. They have recently forecast that inflation will go back up to outside of the range of 3.5%, and that the economy will continue to be sluggish.
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Coalition costings to be revealed shortly
The Coalition’s long-awaited costings are about to be revealed.
Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor, and shadow finance minister Jane Hume, will front up to the media very shortly.
They’ve so far promised to reduce gross debt by $40bn and to cut major Labor established programs like the housing Australia future fund and rewiring the nation fund.
But they’ve only given journalists about 10 minutes to look over the numbers before they stand up.
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Questions remain over how Anthony Albanese will increase the tax base
The question both parties are facing now is how exactly they’re going to increase Australia’s tax base.
Andrew Clennell did a prerecorded sit down with Anthony Albanese a bit earlier, and asked about the tax on unrealised capital gains and on negative gearing.
On the first, Albanese says the tax – which the government tried to legislate, and would increase the tax on superannuation balances over $3m – is “modest” and only impacts 0.5% of the population. On the second, he tries to avoid the question.
What we’ve got out there Andrew is lower taxes …
Clennell tries to get the PM to rule in or rule out negative gearing – Albanese won’t do either.
You asked me that before 2022 with respect, I’m sure you asked me, because I was asked lots of times. I told people we wouldn’t make changes, the proofs in the pudding. If we were going to make changes, then why haven’t we?
He adds that housing supply, not negative gearing changes, will help make housing more affordable.
Yesterday Albanese was asked about taxes multiple times during his press club address, and responded saying that he was cutting taxes for all (which decreases rather than increases the tax base).
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Hung parliament?
While Anthony Albanese has continued to rule out doing any deals with the Greens or crossbench, there is still a very real chance that we could have a hung parliament on Saturday.
So what does that mean? And what are the implications?
For the latest voting 101, Matilda Boseley has the answers for you:
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Dutton in Tasmania
Peter Dutton has moved from Queensland down to the apple isle.
The opposition leader jokes that he could see the “disappointment” at not visiting a petrol station this morning, so he’s brought the media to a mobile bowser instead (donned with a big Liberal slogan).
Dutton says a few words but doesn’t take any questions.
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Major parties urged to commit to repeal of laws preventing some people with intellectual disability from voting
Disability advocates and law reform experts are calling for the major parties to commit to repealing “archaic and offensive” laws that prevent some people with intellectual disability from voting.
A group of 75 organisations, led by Australian Lawyers for Human Rights, have signed an open letter calling for the repeal of “unsound mind” provisions in the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918.
Those provisions saw more than 28,000 people removed from the electoral roll between 2008-2012. The Australian Law Reform Commission recommended a decade ago that these provisions be repealed. That recommendation was repeated in November 2023 in the final report of the government inquiry into the 2022 election.
Recent amendments to the act replaced the phrase “unsound mind”, which is offensive to people with disability, with the words “cognitive impairment”.
But the signatories to the letter say that this reform persists with using an outdated medical model of disability, and does not consider a person’s decision-making ability.
Australian Lawyers for Human Rights co-chair of disability rights, Giancarlo de Vera, said in statement:
Casting a vote and having your say on who governs our country is a fundamental constitutional right, an internationally-protected human right and a hallmark of democracy. The current law is inconsistent with Australia’s international obligations under the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities which states that people with disability must be afforded the right and opportunity to vote on an equal basis with others.
We call on all major parties to publicly commit to urgent law reform during the next term of government ... We all deserve to have our say and it’s time to ensure that adequate measures are put in place to support people with disability to access whatever support is required so people with disability can enrol and vote in every election.
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Australia urged to do more to combat slavery in Asia-Pacific
A coalition of Australian anti-slavery groups has urged whomever wins the federal election to take urgent action against modern slavery and forced labour in the Asia-Pacific, warning Australia is falling behind at a critical time.
The group wants the federal government to double its investment in efforts to combat modern slavery, and calls for major parties to commit to stepping up support in the run-up to the federal election. Spokesperson for the Australian International Counter Slavery Alliance (AICSA) Jacob Sarkodee said:
Right now, people are being trafficked, exploited and enslaved across our region – Australians are connected to it through the goods we buy, the scams we fall for and the child sexual exploitations we enable online.
AICSA is a newly-formed coalition of eight agencies operating across the Pacific and Asia. Its members say USAID’s elimination and cuts to global anti-trafficking programs have created a dangerous vacuum, and that Australia is uniquely positioned to lead, but isn’t doing enough.
“Australia has the reach, the resources and the responsibility to act but we’re watching from the sidelines,” Sarkodee said.
Our region is seeing an escalation in trafficking and exploitation and without intervention, we’ll see deeper harm to communities already under pressure.
International aid for anti-slavery programs across South-east Asia has collapsed, with the US withdrawing more than $500m from 70 anti-trafficking and child labour programs. The alliance wants Australia to double its investment in anti-slavery programs in the Asia-Pacific. Currently, only 50 cents of every $100 in Australian aid goes towards anti-slavery efforts.
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The Queensland government has announced an inquiry into e-scooter and e-bike safety safety, a mode which represents about 1% of transport deaths.
Statistics collected by the department of transport and main roads show that just 13 users of a “personal mobility vehicle” have died in an accident since 2019, including two this year. Some 1,973 people have been killed by other modes, chiefly drivers and passengers in car accidents and motorbike riders, and 164 pedestrians and bike riders have also died.
Minister for transport and main roads Brent Mickelberg said there had been a 112% rise from 2021 to 2024 in injuries to PMD riders, passengers, and pedestrians and some came with high-powered motors and throttle-control.
The increase in injuries and deaths we are seeing because of unsafe and unlawful riding cannot be ignored and I share the community’s concern. It’s important we consider all research and opinions, to ensure a safe and reliable future for e-scooters and e-bikes, especially as we welcome visitors from all over the world for the 2032 [Olympic] Games.
The parliamentary inquiry will be conducted by the state development, infrastructure and works committee and will consider the benefits of e-mobility devices, safety risks, enforcement approaches and importation laws.
You heard from Anthony Albanese earlier addressing the media in Perth. Prior to the press conference, he visited Winthrop Primary school and high-fived the kiddies. The images suggest there was quite a fervour in the air. I’m surprised he made it out in one piece.
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Circling back to the Nationals’ press conference in Alice Springs, there was some back and forth from reporters over how many times the Coalition have visited the Northern Territory over Labor.
The Nationals are campaigning to take the marginal Labor seat of Lingiari from Marion Scrymgour on the ticket of Lisa Siebert, a former police officer and acting sergeant with the AFP’s operations delivery team.
Littleproud said he chose to “show respect of the people of Alice Springs” instead of visiting to “drop announcements and go”.
I’ve been here consistently. And that’s what I’ve proven to the people of Alice Springs that I continually come back … I would have thought the people of Alice Springs are pretty happy to have the [potential] deputy prime minister of this country, walking around listening to them and I haven’t seen the prime minister …
I walk the streets, go to the pub, have a beer and listen to what people in Alice Springs are telling me, I’m not afraid to do that.
A deeper dive into the YouGov MRP
We reported earlier on bombshell results from the final YouGov MRP model, which suggests Labor will govern with an increased seat count and the Liberals are headed for their worst result in 80 years. All the sitting independents are projected to keep their seats
MRP models work by taking large surveys – almost 36k in this instance – and, using the last census, translate these estimates to an electorate level. But there is uncertainty in these numbers, which are also the median results from thousands of simulations.
Dr Luke Mansillo, a political scientist from the University of Sydney, tells the Guardian he thinks the YouGov model is overestimating Labor’s share, and there’s still about a 25% chance of a hung parliament. This is based on his work on Guardian Australia’s poll tracker, which includes estimating the “house effects” that systematically skew polls either towards Labor or the Coalition.
The increasing vote share for independents and minor parties have made many seats that would have been fought between Labor and Coalition into “three-cornered contests”.
The YouGov MRP projects that Labor will pick up the seat of Brisbane, for instance, which the Greens won off the Coalition at the last election. Labor is projected to have the biggest share of the primary vote, but the Coalition and the Greens are in a tight contest for second place – which will likely determine the winner.
“It’s all based on your assumptions about preferences” says Mansillo. In the last election Labor was eliminated in the penultimate round of counting in Brisbane, and 83% of Labor voter preferences went to the Greens candidate. With so many seats likely coming down to the final three, an unexpected result here or there could have a big impact.
The YouGov MRP projects that Labor will pick up more seats despite a lower primary vote than it received in the last election. Mansillo notes that this is true of the Coalition too, and so the preferences that flow back to the major parties will be vital.
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ACT Liberal Senate candidate critical of Coalition’s public service cuts
The lead Senate candidate for the ACT Liberals has hammered Peter Dutton’s policy to slash 41,000 positions from the public service in Canberra, saying it’s “unrealistic” and “not practical”.
Jacob Vadakkedathu, who had previously said the APS cuts would be spread over the whole country – not just focused on the nation’s capital, as Dutton has recently clarified – told ABC Canberra that he would “strongly argue the case” to change the policy if he were elected.
The ACT Liberal used his position to try to convince Canberrans to vote for him – arguing that only a Coalition member could fight the Coalition policy.
Dutton has committed to reversing 41,000 new positions in the APS, which already have been filled (or in some cases are projected to be filled in future) by Labor. The Coalition has been coy on the details of where the positions would be cut, what type of roles, and how they could ensure that essential public services are not compromised.
Dutton has committed to no “frontline” roles being affected, nor any roles related to national security, defence or intelligence. Last week he specified that all 41,000 would come from Canberra specifically, despite only around 68,000 APS roles existing in the ACT. Public service unions and groups have said it would be nearly impossible to cut so many roles without cutting roles Dutton has said are off-limits.
The ACT is currently represented by independent David Pocock and Labor minister Katy Gallagher in the Senate. Vadakkedathu is seeking to win back a Senate seat formerly held by the Liberals, who were ousted at the 2022 election by Pocock. Last week, just hours before Dutton confirmed all the cuts would come from Canberra, Vadakkedathu said in a media interview that only a third of the cuts would come from the ACT.
On ABC radio this morning, Vadakkedathu was heavily critical of the APS policy.
Cutting 41,000 just from Canberra, it’s not realistic. And I’ll stand up and I’ll strongly argue the case for Canberra. I’ll advocate strongly for Canberra...
That’s why we need a Liberal senator from Canberra, representing Canberrans in the party room and in the government, in the incoming Coalition government. So I can strongly argue for Canberra. 41,000 just from Canberra is unrealistic and it’s not practical and I will strongly argue for that for Canberra.
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Greens doubtful there would be no school curriculum changes under Coalition government
The Greens have said a Coalition backflip on reforms to the Australian school curriculum shows Peter Dutton “knows Australians are rejecting his party’s Trumpian turn”.
Earlier today, Dutton said the Coalition had no proposals to reform what students were taught in schools, despite earlier claiming children were being “indoctrinated” and pledging changes to the curriculum.
The Greens spokesperson for primary and secondary education, Senator Penny Allman-Payne, said she didn’t trust that there would be no curriculum changes.
We know the Liberals are ideologically opposed to public education, and they’re terrified that our kids might be exposed to ideas that don’t conform to their cynical, toxic world view.
Kids in Australia deserve a world-class, free public education, not Peter Dutton standing at the whiteboard telling them what they can and can’t learn, or threatening to withdraw funding from schools.
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Albanese optimistic about economy and future
The final question goes to whether Albanese is concerned about the risk of recession in Australia, as the US economy just went backwards by 0.3% in the first quarter.
Albanese says the Australian economy has grown every quarter over the last three years.
Unlike, it must be said, a whole lot of the advanced economies around the world. We continue the briefings that I’ve had, during the campaign, from Treasury, that I expect there to be future growth …
If you look at all of that positive economic growth in every single quarter going forward, that is something and why we say we’re turning the corner. But we need to keep going. You can’t afford to just press the pause button and stop, because the world will go past us.
He adds that the US trade tariffs will “present challenges” to the global economy, but that they mean the US will have to pay more for goods, and repeats the line that the tariffs are “economic self-harm”.
He ends the press conference there.
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Religious discrimination legislation no closer
Labor committed to bring on religious discrimination legislation at the last election, but wouldn’t put that legislation to a vote when they couldn’t secure full bipartisan support from the Coalition.
It appears that condition hasn’t changed, when Albanese is asked whether Labor might bring that bill back.
Albanese says “you need broad support for legislation, we weren’t able to receive that”.
This is the last time in Australia … that you would want to have a divisive debate about religion, so I’m up for legislation that has broad support, but we do not need further issues created.
I’ve been about turning the temperature down, not up on those issues.
Albanese is also asked what his government would do to protect transgender Australians. He just says: “I just respect people”.
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Albanese says Liberals have become ‘more rightwing’ under Peter Dutton
Albanese is asked about this report in the Guardian, that one of the architects of Donald Trump’s 2024 victory claims he made an unpublicised visit to Australia to advise the Liberal party about “structural issues” related to Peter Dutton ahead of the federal election.
Albanese says he’s “been focused on Australia”, says he’s “concerned” about some of the policies and commentary that’s been made.
I’m concerned about some of the positions that have been put during the election campaign here. That people, commentators have said, resembles things that have been done, such as mass sackings of public servants.
He says he’s fighting for Australians, and not fighting “culture wars”, and then takes a dig at the diminishing moderate wing of the party.
The campaign of the Liberal party has become more and more rightwing under Peter Dutton. That’s just the truth of the matter. Peter Dutton has had different positions, sought to raise culture war issues, and he under the Liberal party has lost people like Christopher Pyne, people like Paul Fletcher and Simon Birmingham. They’re going at this election, will the last moderate in the Liberal party turn the lights off?
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On Bennelong MP’s father’s comments, PM says he ‘doesn’t talk about people’s families’
Albanese backs his MP for Bennelong, Jerome Laxale, following reports that his father made homophobic slurs while at a polling booth.
The PM says he doesn’t “talk about people’s family”.
It’s a general rule he’s created that he doesn’t talk about his own family. Albanese says:
I want to keep families out of it. I have answered your question, if you yell you don’t get a different answer … Jerome Laxale is the candidate and he’s a great candidate for Bennelong.
Pushed further on whether he condemns the comments, Albanese says it’s “beneath” the journalist to ask if he supports the comments.
Seriously, people’s families should be kept out of it. It’s beneath you, beneath you to ask whether I support homophobic comments. Because of course I don’t.
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Albanese: ‘I don’t pretend to be a revolutionary, I’m a reformist’
Albanese is asked what he says to voters who might say that he lacks ambition.
Albanese goes through his record on decreasing inflation and increasing wages, and a list of other reforms his government has made including free Tafe, bringing nurses back into aged care homes and increasing school funding.
He says he’s a “reformist”.
I don’t pretend to be a revolutionary, I’m a reformist. Putting in place sensible mainstream reforms in a mainstream government that’s making a difference for Australians.
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Albanese ‘makes no apology’ for campaigning at school in Perth
Albanese is doing the press conference following a walk around a school with his entourage in Perth. He’s asked if it’s appropriate to be campaigning to kids.
“You bet!” he says.
I think this election is about young Australians. I make no apologies for going into a school, because I’m giving schools better funding. That’s what I’m doing.
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Asked about treaty with Indigenous Australians, PM says focus is ‘practical reconciliation’
Albanese is asked where his government stands on truth telling and treaty, the other two parts of the Uluru statement from the heart.
Albanese won’t address those elements, and says the government is “focused on practical reconciliation”.
We’re focused on practical reconciliation … I announced our policy at Garma last year. Where not a single Coalition member, federally, gave the respect that Indigenous Australians deserve at the most important cultural event that is held by First Nations people in Australia. I outlined it there, in a speech, it’s about economic empowerment, it’s about practical ways to close the gap. That is what I’m focused on.
There’s a bit more back and forth, but Albanese tells reporters to “go and read the speech”.
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Albanese questioned on federal environment watchdog
Another piece of legislation that didn’t get up in the last term of government was the bill to establish a federal environment watchdog.
The nature positive laws – which Tanya Plibersek had secured support for from the crossbench – were torpedoed. And Roger Cook had specifically spoken out against them.
Albanese has said he’ll go back to the drawing board, and a reporter asks whether Albanese will need to be upfront with WA and Cook on what the new legislation could look like, and whether the laws will be compliance only.
[What] we will have is in accordance with what was recommended by the Samuels review that was commissioned, I remind you, by the Coalition … What I want is something that is good for business and good for sustainability and that is what they want as well.
There’s a bit of back and forth and the reporter asks whether the laws will be compliance only.
Albanese won’t give any details:
You will see the legislation when it is done. What we will do is not preempt processes of consultation. We treat people with respect, that is what my government does.
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PM is asked about Spain’s blackout and if Australia could face similar
Across the other side of the globe, Spain – a country with more than 50% solar – is facing a major blackout. Albanese is asked what he’s doing to ensure Australia doesn’t face a similar event as Australia transitions to renewables.
Albanese says the characterisation of the question is the “Liberal party’s characterisation”.
Our plan is for renewables backed by gas, backed by batteries and hydro. Firming capacity, that is our plan. We also have not, the government hasn’t, shut any fossil fuel projects, we haven’t done that.
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PM says he would revisit truth in political advertising laws
WA premier dubs Albanese, “pretty much a local”, with the PM having visited the state 33 times over the last three years.
Roger Cook, who had a resounding victory in the state election back in March, is spruiking the schools agreement made between the commonwealth and state, and makes a rallying cry for Albanese.
The PM opens up to questions, the first one goes to Katina Curtis on truth in political advertising. She says in an election that has been characterised by “mistruths and accusations of lying”, should Labor have another crack?
Albanese says:
I would. We tried to do a range of legislation which we didn’t have support for from the Coalition.
The laws are ones that the independents and crossbench have been pushing for.
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PM takes dig at Dutton over backflip on school curriculum changes
Albanese is focused on education, and uses the opportunity to take a dig at the opposition leader over his stance on changing the school curriculum.
The Coalition has said it wants to change the curriculum, and Dutton has said students are being “indoctrinated” in schools.
During his presser earlier today, Dutton said he’d work with parents on the curriculum, but when pushed further by Josh Butler, he admitted, “We don’t have any proposals.”
Albanese says:
We are seeing another backflip from Peter Dutton over school curriculum. I made this point. The current school curriculum was put in place by the former government, not us. But they looked for culture wars in every corner that they can find one. Every dark corner is where they are looking and having said they would rail against the curriculum, that it wasn’t appropriate, now they are saying they won’t touch the curriculum. It’s not clear.
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PM campaigns with Sam Lim in Perth
The prime minister is standing up in Perth alongside Labor MP Sam Lim, who you may remember is a dolphin trainer. He’s looking upbeat.
We are now 48 hours away from polling day. And it’s a clear choice and the selection between Labor, supporting and building Australia’s future, investing in our people, investing in our infrastructure, investing in our future or a Coalition of cuts and chaos, that’s what is at stake between now and Saturday.
Here’s our look at the seat of Tangney:
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Price says only a Coalition government will deliver cost-of-living relief.
I’m over having a prime minister who has deceived the Australian people over and over and over again, who has run a deceitful scare campaign against Peter Dutton because Peter Dutton poses a threat because he is a safe pair of hands along with David Littleproud to … ensure that we can get out of this cost-of-living crisis and take care of our national security as well.
And that is what this is all about, it’s a very – crucial decision that we all have to make as Australians, come this Saturday to ensure that we can get Australia back on track.
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Coalition flags internet and telco upgrades in regions
Nationals leader David Littleproud is appearing in Alice Springs alongside Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. They are both wearing big hats.
Littleproud is flagging internet infrastructure upgrades and telecommunications improvements to the regions, including a universal service obligation to ensure minimum standards in remote areas.
He says the government has “not held the telcos to account” and Australia needs to capitalise on new technology, pointing to developments from Elon Musk.
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AEC urges campaigners to behave respectfully on election day
The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has urged campaigners to behave respectfully to each other on election day at a time of “heightened passion”, adding it has “close relationships” with local police forces.
Electoral commissioner Jeff Pope said with around 12 million Australians still to vote on Saturday, the campaign had been tainted by reports of aggression and intimidation near pre-poll venues.
Australian federal elections are rightly a time of heightened passion but they’re also famous and admired right across Australia and internationally for respectful behaviour and a festival-type environment.
The AEC is not a police force and does not have jurisdiction to undertake conflict resolution or get in the middle of a dispute outside our polling places. However, we do have close relationships with local police forces around the country who are closely monitoring activities.
Pope said in some instances the AEC had written to candidates and branches of registered political parties to “alert them to the reports being received” and “remind everyone of the right for voters to have a comfortable voting experience”.
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The Barries’ final observations before the election
As Australians prepare to vote, and pick up their democracy sausages, on Saturday, Barrie Cassidy and Tony Barry offer some final observations from the 2025 election campaign, marked by Trump, global upheaval and a cost-of-living crisis.
You can hear more of their thoughts on the strategies behind the campaigns in Back to Back Barries, a Guardian Australia podcast. There will be two episodes this week, running on Friday ahead of hitting the polls and again on Sunday when we (hopefully) have a victor.
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Nearly 5 million Australians have voted in pre-poll ahead of the 3 May election
The Australian electoral commission says as of this morning, with two days until polling day, 4,843,706 Australians have gone to the ballot box. That’s an increase of 800,000 pre-poll votes from yesterday.
The AEC says that the total number of voters that put in early ballots in 2022 was 5,633,857.
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Grocery sales lift at Woolworths as hot cross bun sales spike
Woolworths has recorded a rise in the value of grocery sales, partially attributed to the popularity of its Minecraft collectibles programs, lifting overall food sales by 3.6% to $13.1bn over three months.
The Woolworths chief executive, Amanda Bardwell, said today shoppers had been attracted to promotional items given they “continue to be really challenged by cost-of-living” pressures.
While pricing practices at Australia’s major supermarket chains were heavily scrutinised leading up to the election campaign, other areas of concern, such as housing costs, have attracted more attention leading up to polling day.
Slowing inflation and a rate cut has eased pressure on some households, and there are signs consumers are willing to splurge on some nonessential items.
Bardwell said the supermarket had sold about 70m hot cross buns this year, up almost 20% from last year, with some of the newer, indulgent flavours proving popular among shoppers.
But the company’s quarterly result, for the 13-week period to 6 April, was soured by continued weakness in its Big W business, which is headed for a $70m half-year loss after the retailer was forced to cut prices for its spring/summer clothing range, while recording subdued early demand for its autumn/winter stock. Bardwell said:
We’ve announced today that we have made an adjustment to the profit outlook for [Big W], and that is disappointing news for our investors and shareholders, but of course, for our team as well.
The Woolworths-owned discount department chain has struggled to compete with rival Kmart in recent years.
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What the polls predict
Labor’s estimated primary vote has jumped again, according to the latest from Guardian Australia’s poll tracker. Labor’s current primary is just on 30% in our latest average, continuing an upward trend over the past several weeks. If borne out in the results on Saturday, it represents a two-point drop from the last election.
The estimated primary vote for the Coalition is 33%, dipping slightly from when we ran the model earlier in the week. This would also be a two-point drop from the last election. But there is still uncertainty in the polls, as you can see in the graphic below.
The primary share for others and independents has jumped. The average for these groups had fallen slightly last week, after the final list of candidates was published and several pollsters stopped using a “generic ballot” in their surveys. The primary vote for One Nation has also been increasing in some recent polls.
Our current estimate is that Labor leads the Coalition 51.5-48.5 on a two-party-preferred basis. The two-party-preferred vote share has been trending towards a repeat of the last election.
Political scientists have struggled to model how a possible increased vote share for independents and minor parties would translate into actual seats. But the results of a YouGov MRP model released today suggest that Labor may increase their seat total.
You can find more granular breakdowns of the polling on our tracking page.
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Albanese is asked if he’s got a “hype song” for election day.
He nominates “Sounds of Then (This is Australia)“ by pop rock band GANGgajang.
It’s a great uplifting song, I just hope it’s uplifting on Saturday
If you’re not familiar with the tune, have a listen.
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‘We’ve got a mountain to climb’: PM
Albanese has phoned in for a quick interview with Hamish McDonald on ABC radio Sydney.
He’s asked about the latest YouGov poll, which showed Labor would win 84 seats – a clear majority – if an election was held today.
I have no expectations. After 2019 (election loss), where people got a shock on the night, it’s really important to not get ahead of ourselves on the basis of polling that just essentially answer what people think at a particular point in time.
We’re working really hard. No prime minister has been re-elected since 2004 when John Howard got re-elected.
I know we’ve got a mountain to climb.
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Trump campaign chief claims he visited Australia to advise Liberals at start of election campaign
One of the architects of Donald Trump’s 2024 victory claims he made an unpublicised visit to Australia to advise the Liberal party about “structural issues” related to Peter Dutton ahead of the federal election.
With just two full days of campaigning left, Guardian Australia has reported this morning that the veteran Republican strategist Chris LaCivita told undercover reporters posing as prospective clients for political consulting work he was working as a private consultant on the visit to Australia, not in an official capacity or as an adviser to the US president.
Footage of the undercover conversations was published on Thursday by the Europe-based organisations Correctiv and the Centre for Climate Reporting.
‘‘I was in Australia two weeks ago helping the Liberal party there, on some of their structural issues that they were having with Peter Dutton,” LaCivita said on 16 April in the first of two calls. Australia’s election campaign began on 28 March.
In a statement, LaCivita told Guardian Australia: “I did not and do not work for the Liberal Party of Australia. I provide consulting to a wide variety of business interests – some in Australia some in the US etc in terms of a political party – I have not.
Also, I have never met Mr Dutton, but I hope to when he is elected prime minister.
A Coalition campaign spokesman said:
Mr LaCivita is not advising, has never advised, and is not involved in any way with the Coalition campaign. Mr Dutton has not met with him.
You can read the story here:
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Dutton walks back school curriculum changes, says ‘we don’t have any proposals’
Peter Dutton walked back the Coalition’s previous pledge to change the national school curriculum.
During his press conference earlier, our reporter Josh Butler asked Dutton what the Coalition wanted to change, after previously claiming students were being “indoctrinated” in schools.
Dutton said he’d “work with parents to reflect what they want to see”, but when pushed by Butler to say what changes are on the table, Dutton responded:
We don’t have any proposals.
The last school curriculum was put in place during the Morrison government.
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‘I’m not sure the Joe Exotic issue is within my remit,’ says Albanese
You might have seen the very out of the blue endorsement for Anthony Albanese by the star of Netflix series, Tiger King’s, Joe Exotic.
At the National Press Club yesterday, Albanese was asked for his initial reaction to the endorsement, from a man who is currently in a US jail.
He had a chuckle, saying it was good to have “some levity” in the campaign but that he wasn’t aware of the endorsement.
Well the plot has thickened since, with Exotic stating on social media that he wanted Albanese to “call President Trump” to secure his release. He wrote:
I made a public offer to work for their zoo for free for six months or any other wildlife conservation if he [Albanese] would call President Trump and ask for me to be released based on the American governments witnesses have admitted to perjury. Will make the same offer to President Trump or the President of Mexico.
Albanese was asked about the update on Triple M Perth:
Maybe he heard about what we were able to do with Julian Assange, who’s now, you know, enjoying life with his family …
It must be said, I’m not sure that the Joe Exotic issue is within my remit.
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Leading Indigenous organisation calls for focus on eliminating Indigenous disadvantage
As the election campaign descends into a culture war, a leading Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health research body has called on the next government to focus on eliminating Indigenous disadvantage.
The Lowitja Institute said the election provided an opportunity for the incoming government to reaffirm its commitment to the National Agreement on Closing the Gap. Only four of the 19 targets are on track, while some – including suicide and incarceration rates – are going backwards.
The organisation’s chief executive, Paul Stewart, said long-term funding for Aboriginal community-controlled organisations was key to meeting the targets by 2030.
We know that research led by us and for us leads to effective outcomes.
Lack of consistency and a business-as-usual approach from government and agencies in supporting Aboriginal-led solutions is slowing progress towards closing the gap.
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‘Men have a responsibility,’ says PM on domestic violence
Anthony Albanese has continued his run on commercial radio this morning, joining Triple M radio in WA.
The interview is a lot more serious, with the hosts asking Albanese what Labor is doing to combat domestic and family violence.
Albanese says his government’s response has been “comprehensive”, citing the domestic violence leave payments, funding women’s shelters and the social media ban for under 16s.
Albanese adds that there needs to be a whole-of-society change, and that men need to do more.
It’s not just about government. You and I, men have a responsibility. Call out bad behaviour when we see when we see it, when we hear it, it needs to be talked about. We need to engage as well in education issues.
The interview pivots at the end to those text messages almost everyone has been getting from the Trumpet of Patriots. Can we get rid of them, ask the hosts?
It’s pretty painful for people, isn’t it? … I’m not sure that we can, but if we can, I’m certainly up for it, because it’s just really annoying… So yeah, I’m gonna have a look at it. If we’re successful on Saturday,
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Polling analyst makes bold prediction
Independent polling analyst Kevin Bonham has given us a bit more context on that latest polling from YouGov, predicting that Labor is on track for an even larger majority.
Bonham says there’s a caveat in seat-by-seat polling, writing on BlueSky:
They are models based off small samples from each seat that are then interlocked using the assumption that a seat will behave similarly to other similar seats. Even if the overall picture is right, individual seats can be way off.
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ABC managing director responds to Dutton’s ‘hate media’ spray
The ABC managing director, Hugh Marks, has broken his silence on Peter Dutton’s claim that the ABC is part of the “hate media”, saying it’s “disappointing” that all the work done at the ABC is not recognised by the opposition leader.
On Sunday Dutton told supporters: “Forget about what you have been told by the ABC, in the Guardian and the other hate media.”
Marks was also asked to respond to Dutton’s quip on FM radio yesterday that people shouldn’t watch the ABC’s election coverage on Saturday night.
“It’s no laughing matter,” Marks told Ali Moore on ABC Melbourne.
There is a lot of work that goes on behind the scenes. There are a lot of good people that work at this organisation. There is a great sense of purpose and a great sense of purpose for Australia.
The former CEO of Nine Entertainment, who began his tenure at the public broadcaster last month, named ABC election projects Your Say and Vote Compass as services the ABC is providing as part of its election coverage.
I’m really proud of this election coverage.
We started off with a very clear focus on policy. You know, we wanted to talk about policy not politics. We wanted to talk about policy not personality. And I think the team has done an incredible job.
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Anthony Albanese can’t imagine smoking weed with Kyle Sandilands
You never really know what you’re going to get with commercial radio, and today’s interview is certainly something.
“Can you ever imagine you and I blowing a spliff together,” the radio host asked, very seriously.
Albanese: “Now, I can’t imagine that Kyle.”
The prime minister said moves to legalise cannabis are up to the states.
But Albanese’s answers seem to do the trick, with the hosts at the end of the chat calling him “fun”.
Sandilands says, “He can handle anything, yeah, throw him a curveball, he whacks that out of the park.”
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‘There’s no room for complacency’: Albanese
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is speaking to Kyle Sandilands and Jackie O on KIIS 1065 this morning.
Albanese says he can’t get complacent despite polls showing votes are in his favour, referencing the 2019 Liberal election win:
There’s no room for complacency. You might remember 2019, everyone thought Labor was going to win on election night, we didn’t win. It wasn’t because of a miracle and intervention from up above. It was because of the way that people filled in ballot papers.
We want every single vote. There’s a lot at stake at this election, whether everyone gets a tax cut, whether students get 20% cut off their debt, whether we have a policy that we have to deal with climate change, whether we have energy bill relief, whether we have cheaper childcare. All of these issues are at stake, whether your listeners can get a first home with just a 5% deposit.
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Labor to win clear majority, Coalition in trouble: YouGov poll
Federal Labor will govern with a clear majority while the Coalition will suffer its worst election result in 80 years, if YouGov’s final poll before the election comes true, AAP reports.
YouGov’s modelling points to an 84-seat win for the government, out of 150 lower house seats, to return the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, to The Lodge for a second term. The winning party needs 76 seats for a majority.
Under this scenario, the Coalition will drop to 47 seats – a net loss of 11 – meaning the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, will have led his party to its worst seat total since 1946.
Liberal frontbenchers David Coleman, Michael Sukkar and Dan Tehan would all lose their seats.
All of the sitting independents are tipped to retain their seats, while independent challengers are tipped to win Calare, Cowper, Wannon and Bradfield from the Coalition.
The Greens could lose Brisbane to Labor, dropping their lower house seat total to three, according to YouGov.
Labor could pick up Braddon in Tasmania, Banks in NSW, Bonner in Queensland, Menzies and Deakin in Victoria, Moore in Western Australia and Sturt in South Australia from the Coalition, YouGov predicts.
However, the Coalition is tipped to reclaim Aston in Melbourne, which it lost to Labor in a historic byelection in 2023. Public data director Paul Smith said:
YouGov’s MRP [or modelling] shows Labor will now win decisively in the outer suburban and regional marginal seats that tend to decide Australian elections.
Just a note here: margin of errors can be higher when doing a seat-by-seat prediction.
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Dutton denies his office asked Exclusive Brethren members to help election campaign
Dutton denies his office asked the Exclusive Brethren to help the Coalition campaign.
There have been reports that members of the religious sect – whose members don’t vote, and have hardline stances on abortion and marriage equality – have been volunteering for Liberal candidates.
Dutton has been asked whether it’s appropriate the sect volunteers with the party, but the opposition leader has batted away the questions, and has said members of all religions have been involved with campaigning.
Dutton is asked today whether his office has asked for the support from the sect, but he says, “no”, and quickly moves on.
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Dutton says election is not a ‘referendum’ on the campaign
In his preamble, Dutton said that the election would be “a referendum, not about the election campaign, but about the last three years of government”.
A reporter asks whether that means he’s unhappy with how the last four and a half weeks of the election have gone.
Dutton doesn’t bite on his feeling of how the campaign has gone, and says:
I just think Australians [are] now most worried about what the next three years looks like, and they’re worried that if there is an Albanese government.
Another reporter asks another question about the “referendum” comment, and asks whether Dutton could have done things differently through the campaign.
Dutton says:
We should have pulled [up] Labor’s lies earlier on. That’s something I’ve commented on before.
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Dutton refuses to say what Coalition wants changed about the school curriculum
Our reporter Josh Butler asks what exactly the Coalition wants to change in the school curriculum.
Last month, Dutton was asked about a “woke agenda” in curriculums, and in response, the opposition leader suggested students were being “indoctrinated” at school. The shadow education minister, Sarah Henderson, has said the party would have more to say about that curriculum change through the campaign.
The latest school curriculum was put in place under Scott Morrison’s government. Today, Dutton says:
Well, what we’ll do is we’ll work with parents to reflect what they want to see in the education system, and that is a good education for their children.
Josh tries again to ask exactly what the Coalition wants to change. Dutton says:
We don’t have any proposals.
He quickly moves on to the next question.
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Dutton asked about cost of slashing skilled migration program
There’s a fair bit that the Coalition has promised will be released in today’s costings.
Sara Tomevska asks whether the Coalition will factor in the impacts on productivity that could come with cutting the skilled migration program.
Dutton says, “we’ve done work with the PBO, and that’ll be reflected in our costings that we’ll release”.
Our economics editor Patrick Commins has some great analysis on what the migration cuts could look like and mean for the economy.
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Dutton addresses concerns about east coast gas reservation plan
Dutton is asked whether Queenslanders could be left worse off under the Coalition’s east coast gas reservation plan.
The reporter adds that constitutional expert Anne Twomey has also suggested it could be unconstitutional, because it’s essentially a tax on Queensland.
Dutton says the policy is about “getting more gas into the domestic market”, and says the policy will help Queensland.
A big part of the policy is making sure that we can support new reservations to come online, including here in Queensland, and there’s a billion dollars to provide support for infrastructure, etc, in relation to pipelines and distribution. So our policy actually helps the industry here in Queensland.
Dutton doesn’t address concerns that the policy could be unconstitutional.
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Dutton bats off questions about Scott Yung and Noel Pearson
The first question goes to reports of comments from Liberal candidate in Bennelong, Scott Yung, at polling booths saying that Dutton won’t be leader forever.
Dutton bats off the comments, and says Yung has “denied those rumours”.
Well, I note that Scott’s denied those, those rumors. What he’s telling and what all of our candidates are telling the Australian public, is that you can’t afford three more years of Labor.
The second question goes to comments from Noel Pearson who’s said Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history and culture should be taught separately at school rather than across all subject areas.
Dutton says Australians are concentrating on what parties will do to help them (this is despite him having just brought up the voice to parliament again).
I’ve been a strong supporter of Noel Pearson for a long period of time, so I think we should take on carefully what is what he’s had to say. But as we go into the election, I think the main thing people are concentrating on is which side of politics is better off to help them and their families.
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Dutton accuses Labor of having a ‘secret plan’ on the Indigenous voice
Peter Dutton is speaking to media from Brisbane this morning, in his own electorate of Dickson.
Dutton has just helped to launch a Salvation Army red shield appeal.
He says the number of people needing support from Salvo’s is increasing, and then transitions that into his appeal to form government.
Before he takes questions, he brings up the voice to parliament again, quoting Anika Wells this morning, saying she’s put forward a different position to Wong.
He accuses the government of having a “secret plan”.
Albanese has said Labor won’t bring back a voice to parliament.
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Queensland moves to exempt stadia and Olympic venues from planning laws
Stepping away from federal politics for a moment…
Stadia and other Olympics venues would be exempted from planning laws, protecting them from legal challenges, under legislation to be introduced into parliament today.
Queensland’s planning minister Jarrod Bleijie is set to introduce the bill, which overrides 15 planning laws.
The move will be particularly significant for the central stadium at Victoria Park.
The premier, David Crisafulli, revealed the selection of the park as the central venue for the 2032 games last month. The decision broke two election promises made last year; not to build a new stadium, and not to do one at Victoria Park.
In a message posted to social media last night, opposition group Save Victoria Park said the decision “to try and prevent any legitimate legal objections to their proposed stadiums in the heritage-listed park is disgraceful and a slap in the face to the community”.
The group said there were still legal avenues available for a challenge at federal law.
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Littleproud says people in regional Australia ‘have dropped off listening to the ABC’
Nationals leader David Littleproud has joined ABC News Breakfast, and is asked whether he agrees with Peter Dutton’s description of the ABC and the Guardian as “hate media”.
Littleproud won’t say the words, but backs in Dutton’s point, arguing that the ABC hasn’t challenged the prime minister when he says the Coalition’s nuclear plan will cost $600bn.
Well, look, what I’d say it’s been disappointing that organisations like the national broadcaster hasn’t asked the prime minister about this blatant lie about a $600bn cost to nuclear energy.
Host James Glenday unsurprisingly takes umbrage at the accusation that the ABC hasn’t asked those questions to the PM. The backstory here is that the $600bn figure has come from the Smart Energy Council, which has previously donated to Labor, and whose number is much higher than the Coalition’s commissioned costings.
Glenday asks whether it’s “helpful” to describe the ABC as hate media in some of the Coalition’s electorates. Littleproud digs in on his attack of the public broadcaster.
Well, I think unfortunately, James, what’s happened is much of my electorates, people have dropped off listening to the ABC. And that’s a shame because I think it should be more about news and less about views.
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Queensland government delays anti-discrimination law indefinitely
Queensland parliament has voted to indefinitely delay implementing landmark anti-discrimination legislation it passed into law last year.
The attorney general, Deb Frecklington, flagged the move last month. They were included in an amendment to an unrelated bill Frecklington introduced yesterday.
Among other reforms, they expanded discriminatory protections to victims of domestic violence and homelessness, disabled Queenslanders and improved protections for employees subjected to sexual harassment at work. Initially the reforms were to take effect on 1 July.
Queensland Human Rights Commissioner, Scott McDougall, said the move was “a huge disappointment to me and will be to many Queenslanders who have worked tirelessly for positive change”. He said he’d pressed Frecklington to allow uncontroversial parts of the bill to take effect on schedule and called on her to announce a new commencement date.
The shadow attorney general, Meaghan Scanlon, said:
Indefinitely delaying protections for women at work – domestic violence victims, people who are experiencing homelessness – is disgraceful. Given the staggering number of women in this state and country who have been the victims of sexual harassment and assault in the workplace, God only knows why the LNP wants to let discrimination run unabated.
The bill passed on party lines last night. Frecklington said on Tuesday:
The decision to delay the commencement of the RAW Act was not taken lightly. The government remains fully committed to fostering safe, respectful and inclusive workplaces across Queensland
However, the postponement was necessary to ensure that the implementation of the act is as effective and impactful as possible.
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Labor attacks Coalition costings due today
Labor is taking the opportunity ahead of the Coalition releasing their costings to throw doubt on their numbers.
On ABC News Breakfast, Anika Wells was asked whether she believed the Coalition could cut $40bn in debt.
The Coalition has more holes than a golf course in the statement they have released to media overnight about their costings. I hope that people that are possibly 72 hours away from becoming Australia’s government, they have got more detail to offer you all.
Deputy PM Richard Marles also had a dig on RN Breakfast:
The Coalition in terms of how they have spoken about the budget have been an utter joke.
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Labor accuse opposition of “verballing” Penny Wong
Questions on the voice to parliament have continued to plague Labor this morning, following foreign affairs minister Penny Wong’s comments to the Betoota Advocate podcast.
The Coalition has used her comments, reflecting on the voice debate, saying, “I think we’ll look back on it in 10 years’ time and it’ll be a bit like marriage equality” to accuse Labor of wanting to bring back the voice.
The PM and senior cabinet colleagues denied that yesterday and accused some of “verballing” Wong.
Deputy PM Richard Marles is asked on RN Breakfast whether the voice will return, and he also says Wong has been “verballed”.
But when asked about where the failed referendum leaves the other elements of the Uluru statement from the heart – for treaty and truth – Marles won’t really say.
Our focus is in respect of practically making a difference to closing the gap, and that’s where our focus is. And we’re working with the Indigenous leadership of this country, acknowledging that I think parties of both persuasions have wanted to close the gap.
Sally Sara asks why the PM hasn’t visited remote Indigenous communities during the election campaign. Marles says the PM has worked “consistently” with Indigenous communities.
Well, I mean, the prime minister has travelled more around the country, and I think has visited more Australians than you could imagine someone doing in the course of a campaign.
Earlier on News Breakfast, Anika Wells was asked whether the voice was coming back, she said, it was “gone”.
The voice in the form that we took to the referendum is gone… but we are always looking for way to help First Nations peoples.
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Women in rural and remote areas struggle to access social security, report says
Economic Justice Australia has released a report showing women in 4R areas (regional, rural, remote, and very remote australia) are struggling to access social security payments.
As part of the report they heard from a mother in the Kimberley who was unable to verify her identity to Services Australia because she can’t afford her birth certificate; a victim-survivor of family violence in central Queensland who couldn’t access online services due to poor internet connectivity; and a woman in rural Tasmania caring for her elderly parent, facing a six-month wait for Services Australia to review an incorrect decision.
The report found these access issues were made even more significant by the fact one quarter of women in these areas have a personal income of under $400 per week.
Kate Allingham, chief executive of Economic Justice Australia, said:
A functioning social security system isn’t just about eligibility. People need to actually be able to access it. This report shows there are significant barriers facing women in regional, rural, remote and very remote areas, which effectively exclude them from the support they’re legally entitled to, and which is often desperately needed.
It is clear from this election campaign that social security is not a priority for either major party. This is disappointing, and not good enough considering how severe and widespread the human impact of these policy decisions are.
EJA is calling on the government to implement a raft of measures to ensure all women who need Centrelink can access it, including improve training and support for frontline staff to identify people struggling with proof of identity requirements, adding private consultation rooms in rural Centrelink offices, training staff so people are not turned away, funding interpreters and outreach services.
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South-east Queensland a key battleground
South-east Queensland will be an area to watch on election night as the Liberals, Labor and Greens battle it out for seats.
The Greens shocked many winning three lower house seats for the first time in 2022, in Ryan and Brisbane (taken from the LNP) and Griffith (taken from Labor).
Anika Wells, a Queensland Labor MP and cabinet minister, tells ABC News Breakfast this morning she reckons Labor have got “a very decent chance” of clawing some of their votes back in the state.
[We’ve] got a very decent chance at it because I have been watching people come in to vote, we’re now in our second week now … I think people progressives who are tossing up between voting red or green are always looking to vote for something, and I think this time around, we have given them things to vote for.
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Dutton’s Wednesday night visit to Kooyong
Last night, Peter Dutton was in the inner Melbourne seat of Kooyong, held by independent Monique Ryan.
Dutton has so far largely avoided spending much time in the teal-held seats of inner Sydney and Melbourne.
He had a beer with candidate Amelia Hamer and shadow finance minister Jane Hume.
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Dutton campaigns in Dickson
Peter Dutton starts the day in Brisbane, returning again to his electorate of Dickson just three days out from polling day. He’s at a local club, launching the Salvation Army Red Shield Appeal in this area.
Dutton’s office says he’s helped and hosted this charity drive in his region for 18 years.
There’s some good swag up for grabs at a charity auction or raffle here, including a signed Dolphins NRL jersey, a cricket bat signed by the Australian cricket team from 2009, and a book pack including John Howard’s Lazarus Rising.
We’ll expect a press conference from Dutton after this event.
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‘We don’t know what they’re going to cut’: Gallagher lambasts Coalition for not releasing costings
Finance minister Katy Gallagher and shadow treasurer Angus Taylor have clashed on costings, on a Today show panel.
Things are heating up, and the government have been using the last few days to attack the Coalition for not having already released their numbers, and accused them of having hidden cuts to pay for their promises.
Gallagher called the delay a “costings con job”.
I think this is a real costings con job from the opposition. I mean, they have 5 million people have voted and the costings still aren’t out. We don’t know what they’re going to cut.
Taylor retorted:
Well, Karl, we’re putting them out at exactly the same time as Katy and the Labor party did at the last election. More lies from Katy.
The Coalition have said they’ll cut programs like the production tax credits, rewiring the nation fund and housing Australia future fund – but will still need to outline more savings measures to match their spending commitments.
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One Nation candidate whose preferences may help Coalition has railed against climate science and Covid ‘little Hitlers’
Check out our top story this morning which looks at the Nationals’ “handshake” preference deal with One Nation that could prise the seat of Hunter from Labor control.
Here’s Henry Belot’s full story:
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Good morning,
Krishani Dhanji here with you. Thanks to Martin Farrer for getting us started.
Just. Two. Days. To. Go.
We’re nearly there, it’s the absolute home stretch, and the leaders are pulling out all stops to whip around the country.
Peter Dutton is starting his day closer to home, in Brisbane, with the Coalition due to release their costings today. They’re promising a better budget bottom line.
Anthony Albanese, meanwhile, is starting the day in Perth – and we know just how important that state is to keeping Labor in power.
We’ll bring you all of the news as it comes.
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Read the Guardian view on Australia’s federal election
In our election editorial today, we argue that Anthony Albanese has governed steadily but perhaps too slowly to address the country’s problems.
His campaign shows that he wants to unite middle Australia rather than polarise voters. Peter Dutton, who is a better natural communicator, has nevertheless run a poor campaign dogged by lack of policy detail and U-turns.
If progressives want faster change they should consider voting for the Greens, teals or other alternative candidates in the hope of electing a minority Labor government with a progressive crossbench.
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Labor extends lead in polls
Peter Dutton needs a “miracle” to win Saturday’s election, the Daily Telegraph reports, as it publishes the last RedBridge-Accent national poll of the campaign.
The survey, which tallies with a Nine newspaper poll yesterday, shows that Labor has extended its lead to 53-47 on a two-party-preferred basis since the start of April. In November the Coalition was ahead by 51-49.
Fears about global uncertainty caused by Donald Trump and the expected high cost of the Coalition’s plan to build nuclear reactors have been decisive in turning voters to Labor, the poll found.
Younger and ethnically diverse voters have been especially important, the poll shows, with a higher proportion of them living in marginal urban seats.
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Back to Back Barries: final election night predictions
In this special pre-election episode, co-hosts Tony Barry and Barrie Cassidy pull apart the final messages of the campaign, delve into the polling and deliver their last verdicts on how they think it will play out on Saturday night.
Listen here:
Median value of homes increases for third month, Cotality says
The median value of an Australian dwelling increased approximately $2,720 in April, after a third straight month of growth, according to Cotality’s national home value index.
Over the past 25 years, the price of a typical home has jumped from four times the median income in the early 2000s to more than eight times, with rates of home ownership among younger Australians dropping dramatically as a result.
A lift in home values was recorded across every capital city, ranging from a 0.2% rise in Sydney and Melbourne to a 1.1% gain in Darwin.
Regional housing values have continued to outpace the capitals, with values up 0.6% and 0.2% respectively over the month of April.
Cotality’s research director, Tim Lawless, said:
The rate cut in February supported an upwards inflection in housing market conditions, but the positive influence from lower rates seems to be losing some potency.
At the same time, household confidence slipped in April, with the US’s ‘liberation day’ tariff announcements and the upcoming federal election causing uncertainty. It is likely this may be causing some buyers and sellers to delay their decisions.
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Welcome
Good morning and welcome to our live election blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the top overnight stories and then Krishani Dhanji will take over.
Our top story this morning is on the “handshake” deal by the Nationals to move One Nation up its preference list that could help win the New South Wales electorate of Hunter. The deal has been made despite Pauline Hanson’s candidate being known for calling public health officials “little Hitlers” and promoting a conspiracy theory that the climate crisis has been used to control every aspect of people’s lives.
The Coalition will release its long-awaited policy costings today, claiming that they will show the budget would be more than $10bn better off and debt would be $40bn lower over the next four years than under Labor. A re-elected Coalition government would have to slash net migration of students and temporary skilled workers by 90% to reach its “impossibly heroic” goal of reducing net migration to 160,000 next financial year, a Guardian analysis shows.
The median price of a home has risen for the third month in a row, according to data this morning from the research firm Cotality. The median value of an Australian dwelling increased about $2,720 in April, according to Cotality’s national home value index. More coming up.
